A low-cost machine learning (ML) algorithm is proposed and discussed for spatial tracking of unknown, correlated signals in localized, ad-hoc wireless sensor networks. Each sensor is modeled as one neuron and a selected subset of these neurons are called to identify the spatial signal. The algorithm is implemented in two phases of spatial modeling and spatial tracking. The spatial signal is modeled using its M iso-contour lines at levels {ℓj}j=1M and those sensors that their sensor observations are in Δ margin of any of these levels report their sensor observations to the fusion center (FC) for spatial signal reconstruction. In spatial modeling phase, the number of these contour lines, their levels and a proper Δ are identified. In this phase, the algorithm may either use adaptive-weight stochastic gradient or scaled stochastic gradient method to select a proper Δ. Additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) with zero mean is assumed along with the sensor observations. To reduce the observation noise’s effect, each sensor applies moving average filter on its observation to drastically reduce the effect of noise. The modeling performance, the cost and the convergence of the algorithm are discussed based on extensive computer simulations and reasoning. The algorithm is proposed for environmental monitoring. In this paper, the percentage of the communication attempts of wireless sensors is assumed as cost. Performance evaluation results show that the proposed spatial tracking approach is low cost and can model the spatial signal over time with the same performance as that of spatial modeling.

The paper formulates requirements for a polymer material for molding products from it by fused deposition modeling. A methodology for evaluating the suitability of a polymer or composite of thereof in 3D printing technology has been developed. A graphic representation of the developed methodology in the form of a temperature-shear rate logarithm diagram is proposed. Application of the proposed methodology makes it possible to simplify the development of new materials for 3D printing by fused deposition modeling both at the stage of selecting the components of the polymer composition and at the stage of its subsequent approbation.

Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide. The Mexican government has implemented public safety measures to minimize the spread of the virus. In this paper, the authors use statistical models in two stages to estimate the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases per day at the state and national level in Mexico. Two types of models are proposed: first, a polynomial model of the growth for the first part of the outbreak until the inflection point of the pandemic curve and then a second nonlinear growth model is used to estimate the middle and the end of the outbreak. Model selection will be performed using Vuong’s test. The proposed models show overall fit similar to predictive models (e.g. time series, and machine learning); however, the interpretation of parameters is less complex for decision-makers and the residuals follow the expected distribution when fitting the models without autocorrelation being an issue.

The paper describes an algorithm for semantic representation of behavioral contexts relative to a dichotomic decision alternative. The contexts are represented as quantum qubit states in two-dimensional Hilbert space visualized as points on the Bloch sphere. The azimuthal coordinate of this sphere functions as a one-dimensional semantic space in which the contexts are accommodated according to their subjective relevance to the considered uncertainty. The contexts are processed in triples defined by knowledge of a subject about a binary situational factor. The obtained triads of context representations function as stable cognitive structure at the same time allowing a subject to model probabilistically-variative behavior. The developed algorithm illustrates an approach for quantitative subjectively-semantic modeling of behavior based on conceptual and mathematical apparatus of quantum theory.

The calculation of echo intensity involved in the SAR image simulation is usually based on the electromagnetic formula or approximate formula derived under certain assumptions. However, the parameters used in these formulas are often difficult to obtain, and the formulas have errors with the actual situation. In this paper, a method of embedding deep neural network (DNN) into the simulation process based on ray tracing is proposed, so that the DNN model can be directly used to fit the calculation formula of echo intensity from real SAR images. Simulation results show that this method can obtain SAR images with high similarity.

The purpose of this study was to assess the extent to which self-esteem and depression mediated the influence of internalized stigma on life satisfaction among Korean out-of-school youths. Cross-sectional data on 318 youths provided information on perceived stigma, self-esteem, depression, life satisfaction, and personal characteristics. A multinomial logistic regression analysis was followed by structured path analysis to investigate the mediation effects. Internalized stigma was negatively associated with life satisfaction. Self-esteem significantly mediated the influence of stigma on depression and the influence of depression on life satisfaction. Further, stigma directly and significantly influenced depression. This study demonstrated that self-esteem and depression were important to the relationship between internalized stigma and life satisfaction. Implications for possible policies and programs with the aim of helping out-of-school youths to integrate and lead successful satisfying lives are discussed.

This paper presents a new numerical method for multiscale modeling of composite materials. The new numerical model, called DECM, consists in a DEM (Discrete Element Method) approach of the Cell Method (CM) and combines the main features of both the DEM and the CM. In particular, it offers the same degree of detail as the CM, on the microscale, and manages the discrete elements individually such as the DEM—allowing finite displacements and rotations—on the macroscale. Moreover, the DECM is able to activate crack propagation until complete detachment and automatically recognizes new contacts. Unlike other DEM approaches for modeling failure mechanisms in continuous media, the DECM does not require prior knowledge of the failure position. Furthermore, the DECM solves the problems in the space domain directly. Therefore, it does not require any dynamic relaxation techniques to obtain the static solution. For the sake of example, the paper shows the results offered by the DECM for axial and shear loading of a composite two-dimensional domain with periodic round inclusions. The paper also offers some insights into how the inclusions modify the stress field in composite continua.

A mathematical model given by a two - dimensional differential system is introduced in order to understand the transition process from the normal hematopoiesis to the chronic and accelerated acute stages in chronic myeloid leukemia. A previous model of Dingli and Michor is refined by introducing a new parameter in order to differentiate the bone marrow microenvironment sensitivities of normal and mutant stem cells. In the light of the new parameter, the system now has three distinct equilibria corresponding to the normal hematopoietic state, to the chronic state, and to the accelerated acute phase of the disease. A characterization of the three hematopoietic states is obtained based on the stability analysis. Numerical simulations are included to illustrate the theoretical results.

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an attractive technology for manufacturing industry due to flexibility in design and functionality, but inconsistency in quality is one of the major limitations that does not allow utilizing this technology for production of end-use parts. Prediction of mechanical properties can be one of the possible ways to improve the repeatability of the results. The part placement, part orientation, and STL model properties (number of mesh triangles, surface, and volume) are used to predict tensile modulus, nominal stress and elongation at break for polyamide 2200 (also known as PA12). EOS P395 polymer powder bed fusion system was used to fabricate 217 specimens in two identical builds (434 specimens in total). Prediction is performed for XYZ, XZY, ZYX, and Angle orientations separately, and all orientations together. The different non-linear models based on machine learning methods have higher prediction accuracy compared with linear regression models. Linear regression models have prediction accuracy higher than 80% only for Tensile Modulus and Elongation at break in Angle orientation. Since orientation-based modeling has low prediction accuracy due to a small number of data points and lack of information about material properties, these models need to be improved in the future based on additional experimental work.

Most of the municipalities in the Gulf region are facing performance related issues in their municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. They lack to possess a deliberate inter-municipality benchmarking processes. Instead of identifying the performance gaps for their key components (e.g., personnel productivity, operational reliability, etc.) and adopt proactive measures, the municipalities primarily rely on an efficient emergency response. A novel hierarchical modeling framework, based on deductive reasoning, is developed for performance assessment of MSWM systems. Fuzzy rule based modeling using Simulink-MATLAB was used for performance inferencing at different levels, i.e., component, sub-components, etc. The model is capable of handling the inherent uncertainties due to limited data and imprecise knowledge base. The model’s outcomes can exclusively assist the managers working at different levels of organizational hierarchy for effective decision-making. Performance of the key component, assists the senior management to assess the overall compliance level of performance objectives. Subsequently, operation management can hone in the sub-components to acquire useful information for intra-municipality performance management. While, individual indicators are useful for inter-municipality benchmarking. The model has been implemented on two municipalities operating in Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia. The results demonstrate the model’s pragmatism for continuous performance improvement of MSWM systems in the country and elsewhere.

This report describes the collection of a large dataset (6930 measurement) on dimensional error in the fused deposition modeling (FDM) additive manufacturing process for full-density parts. Three different print orientations were studied, as well as seven raster angles (0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90°) for the rectilinear infill pattern. All measurements were replicated ten times on ten different samples to ensure a comprehensive dataset. Eleven polymer materials were considered: acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polylactic acid (PLA), high-temperature PLA, wood-composite PLA, carbon-fiber-composite PLA, copper-composite PLA, aluminum-composite PLA, high-impact polystyrene (HIPS), polyethylene terephthalate glycol-enhanced (PETG), polycarbonate, and synthetic polyamide (nylon). The samples were ASTM-standard impact testing samples, since this geometry allows the measurement of error on three different scales; the nominal dimensions were 3.25mm thick, 63.5mm long, and 12.7mm wide. This dataset is intended to give engineers and product designers a benchmark for judging the accuracy and repeatability of the FDM process for use in manufacturing of end-user products.

A sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural or other contexts in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of business strategy. Different industries and business types have utilized sustainability business models to satisfy their economic, environmental and social goals simultaneously. This study is conducted to present the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas. The business models are classified and reviewed in different application groups. To do so, a review is conducted, and the findings reveal that the application of sustainability business models can be classified in 16 unique categories. The key contribution of this study is providing an insight about the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and its research path.

Subsurface temperature is the key parameter in geothermal exploration. An accurate estimation of the reservoir temperature is of high importance and usually done either by interpolation of borehole temperature measurement data or numerical modeling. However, temperature measurements at depths which are of interest for deep geothermal applications (usually deeper than 2 km) are generally sparse. A pure interpolation of such sparse data always involves large uncertainties and usually neglects knowledge of the 3D reservoir geometry or the rock and reservoir properties governing the heat transport. Classical numerical modeling approaches at regional scale usually only include conductive heat transport and do not reflect thermal anomalies along faults created by convective transport. These thermal anomalies however are usually the target of geothermal exploitation. Kriging with trend does allow including secondary data to improve the interpolation of the primary one. Using this approach temperature measurements of depths larger than 1,000 m of the federal state of Hessen/Germany have been interpolated in 3D. A 3D numerical conductive temperature model was used as secondary information. This way the interpolation result reflects thermal anomalies detected by direct temperature measurements as well as the geological structure. This results in a considerable quality increase of the subsurface temperature estimation.

Decomposition of natural and synthetic polymeric materials (peat, humates, biochar, strongly swelling hydrogels and other soil conditioners) in a biologically- and chemically- active soil environment inevitably leads to their degradation and ability to improve the structure, water-retention, absorptive capacity and actual fertility of artificial soil constructions in urbanized ecosystems and agro landscapes (constructozems). Quantitative assessment of the biodegradation process using field and laboratory incubation experiments, as well as mathematical modeling, showed the possibility of significant (up to 30-50% per year) losses of organic matter of constructozems and a corresponding deterioration in their quality. Incubation experiments with the analysis of carbon dioxide emission for polymeric materials under given thermodynamic conditions allow to estimate the potential rates of their decomposition (half-life) and their dependence on the dose of inhibitors of microbial activity. Special nomographs provide an opportunity to determine the optimum depth of the arrangement of organic components in soil constructions to ensure their stable functioning during a fixed operating time in urban conditions. The results of the study are useful for geo-engineers and landscaping practitioners.

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

Incorporating linear-scanning MEMS micromirrors into Fourier transform spectral acquisition systems can greatly reduce the size of the spectrometer equipment, making portable Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS) possible. How to minimize the tilting of the MEMS mirror plate during its large linear scan is a major problem in this application. In this work, an FTS system has been constructed based on a biaxial MEMS micromirror with a large piston displacement of 180 μm, and a biaxial H∞ robust controller is designed. Compared with open-loop control and PID closed-loop control, H∞ robust control has good stability and robustness. The experimental results show that the stable scanning displacement reaches 110.9 μm under the H∞ robust control, and the tilting angle of the MEMS mirror plate in that full scanning range falls within ±0.0014°. Without control, the FTS system cannot generate meaningful spectra. In contrast, the FTS yields a clean spectrum with an FWHM spectral linewidth of 96 cm-1 under the H∞ robust control. Moreover, the FTS system can maintain good stability and robustness under various driving conditions.

Restoration experience is a positive response against the ever-increasing problem of stress. It is recovery of attentional capacity, clearing random thoughts and feelings of relaxation and calmness. Although there is a body of research on investigating the impact of open green space characteristics on psycho- logical restoration through attention restoration theory and supportive environment theory, there is little knowledge on how the interaction among these characteristics could promote restorative outcomes. To address this problem, using Perceived Sensory Dimension (PSD) for open green space qualities and Perceived Restorativeness (PR) as the property of restorative environment, this study assessed the extent to which the PSD and PR impact on restoration experience. Using 444 screened surveys, a Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) was developed and the validity and reliability of it, was demonstrated. Extensive analysis of the results showed how environmental qualities can promote restoration experience using a sample of university students. These results provide information for landscape architecture and planning researchers to promote the development of open spaces as a resource of psychological restoration and stress relief.

The accurate wellbore pressure control not only prevents from lost circulation/blowout and fracturing formation by managing density of drilling fluid, but also improves productivity by mitigating reservoir damage. The geothermal pressure calculated by constant parameters for geothermal well would bring big error easily, as the changes of physical, rheological and thermal properties of drilling fluids with temperature were neglected. This paper researches the wellbore pressure coupling by calculating the temperature distribution with existed model, fitting the rule of density of drilling fluid with temperature and establishing mathematical models to stimulate the wellbore pressures, which is expressed as the variation of Equivalent Circulating Density (ECD) under different conditions. With this method, temperature and ECDs in the wellbore of the first medium-deep geothermal well ZK212 Yangyi Geothermal Field in Tibet were determined, and the sensitivity analysis was simulated by assumed parameters, i.e. circulating time, flow rate, geothermal gradient, diameters of wellbore, rheological models and regimes, the results indicated the geothermal gradient and flow rate were the most influence parameters on the temperature and ECD distribution, and additives added in drilling fluid should be careful which would change the properties of drilling fluid and induce the temperature redistribution. To make sure the safe drilling, velocity of pipes tripping into the hole, depth and diameter of wellbore are considered to control the surge pressure.

This article presents a mathematical model that captures the temporal dynamics of efficiencies in the responses to pleasure and pain, represented by $k_P(t)$ and $k_D(t)$, as well as the interaction factor $k_{PD}(t)$ between cortisol and dopamine. The model allows for the analysis of how these parameters evolve over time as a function of an individual's activities and physiological states, incorporating processes of tolerance, sensitization, and homeostasis. We present the updated differential equations, qualitative analyses, potential simulation scenarios, implications, and potential applications of the model.

With the escalating proliferation of wind power plants, the imperative focus on system robustness and stability intensifies. Doubly fed induction machines (DFIMs) are extensively employed as generating units in land-based wind power plants due to their performance advantages. While the stator windings of DFIMs are directly connected to the power system, the three-phase rotor windings are connected via power converters, rendering these units highly vulnerable to voltage disturbances. During faults, voltage drops at the stator terminals lead to elevated voltages and currents on the rotor side due to electromagnetic coupling between stator and rotor, potentially damaging rotor insulation and costly power electronics. Historically, to safeguard equipment, wind power plants employing distributed energy resources such as DFIMs were disconnected from the grid during faults—an unsatisfactory solution given the burgeoning number of these installations. Consequently, grid operators and IEEE standard 2800 mandate fault ride-through or low voltage ride-through capabilities to maintain supply adequacy during recovery from disturbances and voltage fluctuations. This paper provides an overview of diverse techniques devised to enable fault ride-through for DFIMs. Additionally, it scrutinizes existing approaches in modeling DFIM behavior during faults and introduces an approach tailored specifically for DFIMs, detailing its comparative advantages and limitations vis-à-vis established models. A conclusion about the necessity for more precise models in comparison to the existing ones is provided.

Many natural signals exhibit a quasi-periodic behavior and are conveniently modeled as a combination of several harmonic sinusoids whose relative frequencies, magnitudes and phases vary with time. The waveform shape of those signals reflects important physical phenomena underlying their generation, which requires that those parameters be accurately estimated and modeled. In the literature, accurate phase estimation and modeling has received much less research effort than frequency estimation, or magnitude estimation. First, this paper addresses accurate DFT-based phase estimation of individual sinusoids in six scenarios involving two DFT-based filter banks and three different windows. It is shown that bias in phase estimation is less than 1E-3 radians when the SNR is equal to or larger than 2.5 dB. Taking as a reference the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound, it is shown that one particular window offers a performance of practical interest by approximating better the CRLB when signal conditions are favorable, and by minimizing the performance deviation when signal conditions are adverse. Second, this paper explains how a shift-invariant phase-related feature can be devised that characterizes harmonic phase structure, which motivates a signal processing paradigm that greatly simplifies parametric modeling, transformation and synthesis of harmonics signals, in addition to facilitating the understanding and reverse engineering of the phasegram. Theory and results are discussed in a reproducible perspective using dedicated experiments that are supported with code allowing not only to replicate figures and results in this paper, but also to expand research.

Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, has the highest number of landslides recorded in the country. In a previous study, landslides were found to be mainly concentrated in areas with colluvium and residual soils. The present study focused on assessing the physical vulnerability of houses and the risk linked to landslides in these types of soils. As an input for this assessment, the study generated landslide risk vulnerability functions based on empirical data. The study's findings suggest that the estimated Annual Average Losses associated with landslides in this region is USD 7.26 million. Moreover, the study developed a novel approach for the spatial and temporal estimation of landslide hazard probability, which overcomes some of the limitations identified in previous landslide risk assessment studies.

Induction motors are the most numerous and significant dynamic loads in power systems. In transient voltage stability analysis, dynamic equivalent models are commonly used to simplify the representation of a group of induction motors. This paper presents an method for the grouping and aggregation of induction motors at a common bus. Firstly, grouping rules were provided for clustering induction motors into several subgroups based on the mechanical principles of rotor force and motion, and Aggregation Rules were provided for aggregating a motor subgroup into a single-unit model based on the relationship between voltage drop and power transmission in distribution networks. Secondly, guided by the grouping rules, high-speed remaining electromagnetic torque and low-speed remaining electromagnetic torque were defined as new clustering indicators, and an adaptive K-means clustering method using silhouette coefficient verification was provided to obtain the optimal motor subgroups. Thirdly, guided by the Aggregation Rules, a dynamic equivalent method was further provided to obtain the equivalent single-unit model from a motor subgroup. Lastly, a transient voltage stability simulation in a typical distribution network was presented to illustrate that the proposed clustering and equivalent methods are more reasonable, accurate, and effective than traditional methods, as the obtained model has better dynamic characteristics and can more accurately reproduce the process of voltage collapse.

This article explores the potential of the Unreal Engine game engine as a tool for creating highly realistic 3D visualizations of GIS data, specifically in the context of significant historical areas. The research will focus on the computational techniques used in the 3D visualization of GIS data and the Unreal Engine software and its potential applications in geomatics. The article also presents several relevant scientific studies and projects that have successfully used game engines for similar purposes, explores the potential for using GIS data within a game engine, including plug-ins that provide additional functionality to GIS software, and the use of procedural modeling to create 3D objects through the CityEngine software plug-in. Finally, the research is applied to a dataset of the historical Vltava Valley covering an area of 1670 km2 to demonstrate the capabilities of Unreal Engine in creating realistic visualizations of large historical landscapes, and the resulting visualizations are presented. This practical application of the research provides valuable insights into the potential of the Unreal Engine as a powerful tool for creating highly realistic 3D visualizations of large historical areas with potential applications in the field of geomatics.

This paper presents an innovative approach to dimensionality reduction and feature extraction in high-dimensional datasets, with a specific application focus on wood surface defect detection. The proposed framework integrates sparse modeling techniques, particularly Lasso and proximal gradient methods, into a comprehensive pipeline for efficient and interpretable feature selection. Leveraging pre-trained models such as VGG19 and incorporating anomaly detection methods like Isolation Forest and Local Outlier Factor, our methodology addresses the challenge of extracting meaningful features from complex datasets. Evaluation metrics such as accuracy and F1 score, alongside visualizations, are employed to assess the performance of the sparse modeling techniques. Through this work, we aim to advance the understanding and application of sparse modeling in machine learning, particularly in the context of wood surface defect detection.

Indoor environmental comfort is fundamental to human health as people spend 90% of their time indoors. This aspect is even more crucial in hospitals, where the concept of health is closely linked to well-being, ethics, and environmental aspects. Emerging methodologies and technologies such as Digital Twin, Building Information Modeling, the Internet of Things, sensing technologies, and data analytics offer new opportunities to ensure healthier environments and more efficient building management. This paper provides an assessment of how digitalization can support decision-making processes related to maintaining high levels of indoor environmental comfort in hospital settings, particularly by analyzing how real-time data processing and the application of machine learning can promote proactive interventions in these facilities. The methodological approach was based on four phases: defining the objectives of the digital twin, identifying the input data to build and feed the digital model, defining the KPIs to evaluate the system's correct functioning, and identifying the enabling technologies to be integrated into the system to achieve the set goal. The result is a digital twin for managing the operating room and its related services, with the aim of guiding decisions based on accurate data and improving operational efficiency, levels of environmental comfort, and safety regarding the diffusion of medical gases.

Geothermal energy, being a clean energy source, has immense potential, and accurate wellbore modeling is crucial for optimizing the drilling process and ensuring safety. This paper presents a novel geothermal wellbore model based on the drift-flux approach, tested under three different temperature and pressure well conditions. The proposed model integrates the conservation equations of mass, momentum, and energy, incorporating the gas-liquid two-phase flow drift-flux model and heat transfer model. Key features include handling heat transfer between the for-mation and the wellbore, addressing the slip relationship between gas and liquid phases, and accounting for wellbore friction. The nonlinear equations are discretized using the finite differ-ence method, and the highly nonlinear system is solved using the Newton-Raphson method. Numerical simulation, validation, and comparison with existing models demonstrate the en-hanced accuracy of this model. In our tests, the model achieved high accuracy in calculating bottom hole pressure and temperature, with Mean Relative Errors (MRE) significantly lower than those of other models. These results offer valuable insights for optimizing drilling parameters and ensuring drilling safety. Comparisons indicate that this approach significantly outperforms others in capturing the complex dynamics of geothermal wellbores, making it a superior tool for geo-thermal energy development.

Photovoltaic modules should pass series of tests and examinations, verifying the electrical and thermal characteristics of the module, before being released to the market, examining the properties of the modules should undergo appropriate durability and efficiency tests under real outdoor conditions with exposure to climatic conditions and under laboratory conditions. The performance of photovoltaic cells depends on many factors, such as solar irradiance, module operating temperature, installation location, weather conditions and module shading. In this paper, three selected photovoltaic modules were examined using a large-scale steady-state solar simulator. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of the photovoltaic modules were experimentally tested and analyzed. The next step was to implement a three-layer artificial neural network model (MLP). The experimental data obtained in the previous step coupled with output data from MLP were then used in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). Experiments carried out on a large-scale stationary solar simulator showed differences between the values declared by the manufacturer and the values obtained from measurements of PV modules. The first module tested achieved the maximum power point greater than that specified by the manufacturer, while the other two showed power drops; it was 85-87% for the second module, and 95-98% for the third, respectively. The performed global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for the MLP model showed that the parameters: eff (22.9) and Voc/V (14.19) have the largest effect on the power-voltage relationship, while U (7.29) has the smallest effect. The usefulness of machine learning (ML) methods in the comparative analysis of PV modules has been proved.

This study examines geothermal energy extraction potential from the basement rock within the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin, focusing on flow performance and heat extraction efficiency of different geothermal well configurations. It specifically compares U-Shaped, V-Shaped, Inclined V-Shaped, and Pipe-in-Pipe configurations against Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) setups. Through numerical modeling, we evaluated the thermal behavior of these systems under various operational scenarios and fracture conditions. Results suggest that while closed-loop systems offer moderate temperature increases, EGS configurations show substantial potential for high-temperature extraction. This underscores the importance of evaluating well configurations in complex geological settings like the DJ Basin. The insights from this study aid in strategic geothermal energy planning and development, marking significant advancements in geothermal technology and setting a foundation for future explorations and optimizations.

The installation of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) increases demand and peak loads, potentially straining existing energy distribution infrastructure. Dispersed and inadequately planned placement of charging points (CPs) can disrupt the electrical grid, surpass contracted demand thresholds, and require infrastructure upgrades, thereby incurring unfeasible costs for Distribution System Operators (DSOs). In this context, it is necessary to recognize the role of business models in enabling effective electrification of the transportation sector. In response to these challenges, this paper introduces a novel e-mobility hub management strategy, tailored for implementation in the Brazilian context. The proposed strategy revolves around a microgrid configuration encompassing dispatchable and photovoltaic generation, a battery energy storage system (BESS), EVSE infrastructure, and local loads. Moreover, this centralized controller facilitates the implementation of dynamic pricing and demand-response mechanisms, integral to business models seeking to integrate EVSE into the distribution grid. To validate the efficacy of the proposed solution, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations of the microgrid system are conducted. These simulations, incorporating the centralized controller, serve as a tool for assessing system performance and viability before on-site equipment deployment. Finally, this paper concludes with the insights gleaned from test analysis and its discussion through a selection of the most expressive scenarios, including islanded and connected operation modes.

Pinus occidentalis, Swartz is the primary timber species in the Dominican Republic (DR). Despite its economic importance, studies conducted on this species are very scarce, making it difficult to estimate current inventory levels. This study aims to enhance the accuracy of estimating total bole volume of P. occidentalis in different ecological zones (EZs) within La Sierra, evaluating and comparing two established volume equations—combined variable and Schumacher-Hall—across nine modeling variants (MVs). An indicator variables analysis determined the necessity of distinct equations for two EZs. Fitting included both linear and nonlinear models. Our comprehensive statistical analysis included goodness-of-fit metrics to evaluate each model variant's performance rigorously. Modeling variant SH02 was most effective in the Dry Ecological Zone, showing superior performance in both fitting and validation phases. Similarly, SH03 emerged as the best fit for the Combined Intermediate and Humid Ecological Zones, achieving the lowest overall ranking sum among tested variants. The SH equation variants SH02 and SH03, provide reliable and precise volume estimations, allowing optimization of forestry management practices for P. occidentalis trees. The SH models outperformed the CV model variants' consistency in parameter estimation. This tailored approach employed ensures more accurate volume predictions, which is crucial for sustainable management and conservation efforts.

In this study, a simple machine learning-based quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was developed to predict the inhibitory potency (pIC50 values) of FLT3 tyrosine kinase inhibitors, pivotal in treating Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). Distinctively, our model leverages an extensive and diverse dataset, 14 times larger than those employed in prior studies within this field, enabling an unparalleled scope of compound analysis. This vast dataset, combined with further exploration of molecular descriptors, enabled predictions of extraordinary precision, covering a broader spectrum of FLT3 inhibitors than was previously possible. The Random Forest Regressor (RFR) algorithm, selected for its superior predictive performance, was trained with 1080 inputs and validated through comprehensive external and internal methods. It achieved an remarkable coefficient of determination (R^2) of 0.941 and a standard deviation of 0.235 on a test set of 270 compounds, highlighting the efficacy of model in predicting FLT3 inhibitory activity. Key molecular descriptors were identified, enhancing our understanding of structural requirements for inhibitor potency. Additionally, we developed a user-friendly computational tool that enables the rapid prediction of pIC50 values. Utilizing this tool, potential FLT3 inhibitors were identified through ligand-based virtual screening. This study represents a major advancement in FLT3 inhibitor discovery by utilizing a simple QSAR-machine learning model. It enables more efficient and precise identification of potential drug candidates at an early stage, promising a faster development of targeted therapies and streamlining the ligand-based drug design process.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the voltage drop of a three-phase voltage source inverter in driving brushless motors. This study also proposes an enhanced Field Oriented Control scheme that accounts for the inverter voltage drop enabling efficient drive at very low motor-speeds. Experimental results are provided to verify the theoretical study and the proposed control scheme.

Digital twins are an emerging technology that could be harnessed for the digitalization of the industry. Steel industry systems contain a large number of electro-hydraulic components, as proportional valves. An input-output model for a novel water proportional cartridge valve is derived from physical modelling based on fluid mechanics, dynamics, and electrical principles. The valve is a two-stage valve with two 2/2-way water proportional valves as the pilot stage and a marginally stable poppet-type cartridge valve as the main valve. The orifice equation, which is based on Bernoulli principles, is approximated by a polynomial which makes parameter estimation easier and makes modelling possible without measuring pressure of the varying control volume situated in the pilot stage part of the valve. Data were collected when the valve was operating as a component in a closed-loop system as part of a press-mill machine in a steel manufacturing plant. Parameter estimation was made by convex optimization with physical constraints to overcome problems caused by poor system excitation. For comparison, a simple linear model was derived and the least squares method used for parameter estimation. A thorough estimation of the parameters relative errors is presented. The model contains 5 parameters related to the design parameters of the valve. The modelled position output is in good agreement with experimental data for training and test data. The model can be used for real time monitoring of the valve’s status by the model parameters. One of the model parameters varies linearly with production cycles. Thus, aging of the valve can be monitored.

This paper introduces an innovative approach to numerically model Structure-Soil-Structure Interaction (SSSI) by integrating the Boundary Element Method (BEM) and the Finite Element Method (FEM) in a coupled manner. To assess the accuracy of the proposed method, a comparative study is undertaken, comparing its outcomes with those generated by the conventional FEM technique. Alongside accuracy, the computational efficiency aspect is crucial for the analysis of large-scale SSSI problems. Hence, the computational performance of the coupled BEM-FEM method undergoes a thorough examination and is compared with that of the standalone FEM method. The results from these comparisons illustrate the superior capabilities of the proposed method in comparison to the FEM method. The novel approach provides more reliable results compared to traditional FEM methods, serving as a valuable tool for engineers and researchers involved in structural analysis and design.

This study introduces a neural network-based approach to predict dust emission, specifically PM2.5 particles, during almond harvesting in California. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), the research predicts PM2.5 emissions by analyzing key operational parameters of an advanced almond harvester. The model is trained on extensive field data from the almond pickup system, including variables like brush speed, angular velocity, and harvester forward speed. The results demonstrate a notable predictive accuracy of the FNN model, with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.02 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.01, indicating a high degree of precision in forecasting PM2.5 levels. The study also finds a strong correlation between certain operational parameters and PM2.5 emissions, highlighting specific areas for optimization in harvesting techniques. By integrating machine learning with agricultural practices, this research provides a significant tool for environmental management in almond production, offering a method to reduce harmful emissions while maintaining operational efficiency. This model presents a solution for the almond industry and sets a precedent for applying predictive analytics in sustainable agriculture.

In response to growing industrial demands, necessitated by larger ships and increased cargo volumes, many port authorities worldwide are undertaking a significant expansion of their infrastructure to increase their capacity. Significant expansion raises challenges such as potential congestion and environmental concerns, especially for port located in urban area as the case study explored in this paper. To address these issues, the study employs a combination of scenario analysis developed in collaboration with the port authority and logistic system simulation. This approach assesses the capacity of existing access gates to handle the increased trucking traffic and optimizes the unloading process of construction trucks at a new terminal. Key findings suggest that while the current gate capacities are adequate, optimizing unloading times at the new terminal is critical to prevent road congestion in urban area before the gate and reduce negative impacts such as sound and atmospheric pollution. The study advocates for an appointment system during peak hours to manage traffic flow effectively and underscores the importance of collaboration between the city and port authorities in managing truck traffic to mitigate congestion on the city side. Nonetheless, the study recognizes certain constraints, including the incomplete evaluation of the influence of intermodal transport on truck traffic. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the need for future research to consider the correlation between vehicle numbers and service levels, aiming to effectively adjust the time in the system.

The work presented in this paper makes multiple scientific contributions with a specific focus on the analysis of misinformation about COVID-19 on YouTube. First, the results of topic modeling performed on the video descriptions of YouTube videos containing misinformation about COVID-19 revealed four distinct themes or focus areas - Promotion and Outreach Efforts, Treatment for COVID-19, Conspiracy Theories regarding COVID-19, and COVID-19 and Politics. Second, the results of topic-specific sentiment analysis revealed the sentiment associated with each of these themes. For the videos belonging to the theme of Promotion and Outreach Efforts, 45.8% were neutral, 39.8% were positive, and 14.4% were negative, for the videos belonging to the theme of Treatment for COVID-19, 38.113% were positive, 31.343% were neutral, and 30.544% were negative, for the videos belonging to the theme of Conspiracy Theories regarding COVID-19, 46.9% were positive, 31.0% were neutral, and 22.1% were negative, and for the videos belonging to the theme of COVID-19 and Politics, 35.70% were positive, 32.86% were negative, and 31.44% were negative. Third, topic-specific language analysis was performed to detect the various languages in which the video descriptions per topic were published on YouTube. This analysis revealed multiple novel insights. For instance, for all the themes, English and Spanish were the most widely used and second-most widely used languages, respectively. Fourth, the patterns of sharing these videos on other social media channels such as Facebook and Twitter were also investigated. The results revealed that videos containing video descriptions in English were shared the highest number of times on Facebook and Twitter. Finally, correlation analysis was performed by taking into account multiple characteristics of these videos. The results revealed that the correlation between the length of the video title and the number of Tweets as well as the correlation between the length of the video title and the number of Facebook posts was statistically significant.

One of the rapidly developing research areas in the power system is the integration of distributed generation (DG) with the distribution system. The size and location of DG sources had a considerable impact on power system networks. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be used to address multidimensional problems relating to DG size and location in distribution systems. Heuristic optimization offers a reliable and effective method for solving complicated real-world problems. This work focuses on a hybrid approach that combines the two heuristic optimization methods i.e., Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for the optimal siting and sizing of DG in distribution systems. This hybrid approach combines ideas from GA and PSO and generates individuals in a new generation using both PSO mechanisms and the procedures found in GA. An extensive performance analysis of the IEEE 14 busbar standard test system is conducted to demonstrate the viability of the suggested methodologies. In the designated locations, DG is placed, and the outcomes have been verified. The results indicated that the right placement of DG injection enhances the voltage profile and lowers the distributed system’s power losses. These techniques offer unique methods for determining the location of the DG unit, demonstrating the potential of such a computational techniques to reduce computing time and complexity while simultaneously reducing human errors associated with hit-and-trail methods.

In this study, we investigate the structural changes, electronic properties, and charge redistribution within azo-bithiophene (Azo-BT) chemisorbed monolayers under different light stimuli using density functional theory and molecular dynamics simulations. We consider two types of switches, Azo-BT and BT-Azo, with different arrangements of the Azo and BT blocks counting from the anchor thiol group. The chemisorbed monolayers of pure cis- and trans-isomers with a surface concentration of approximately 2.7 molecules per nm2 are modeled on a gold surface using classical all-atom molecular dynamics. Our results reveal significant shrinkage of the BT-Azo layer under UV illumination, whereas the thicknesses of the Azo-BT layer remain comparable for both isomers. This difference in behavior is attributed to the ordering of the trans-molecules in the layers, which is more pronounced for Azo-BT, leading to a narrow distribution of the inclination angle to the gold surface. Conversely, both layers consisting of cis-switches exhibit disorder, resulting in similar brush heights. To study charge transfer within the immobilized layers, we analyze each snapshot of the layer and calculate mean charge transfer integrals using Nelsen’s algorithm for a number of interacting neighboring molecules. Combining these integrals with reorganization energies defined for the isolated molecules, we evaluate the charge transfer rates and mobilities for electron and hole hopping within the layers at room temperature based on Marcus’ theory. This research offers new perspectives for the innovative design of electrode surface modifications and provides insights into controlling charge transfer within immobilized layers using light triggers. Additionally, we identify molecular properties that are enhanced through specific molecular design, which contributes to the development of more efficient molecular switches for various electronic applications.

Background: Permanent Daylight Savings Time (DST) may improve road safety by providing more daylight in the evening but could merely shift risk to morning commutes or increase risk due to fatigue and circadian misalignment. Methods: To identify how potential daylight exposure and fatigue risk could differ between permanent DST versus permanent Standard Time (ST) or current time arrangements (CTA), generic work and school schedules in five United States cities were modeled in SAFTE-FAST biomathematical modeling software. Commute data were categorized by morning (0700-0900) and evening (1600-1800) rush hours. Results: Percent darkness was greater under DST compared to ST for the total waking day (t=2.59, p=0.03) and sleep periods (t=2.46, p=0.045). Waketimes occurred before sunrise 63%±41% percent of the time under DST compared to CTA (42%±37%) or ST (33%±38%; F(2, 74)=76.37; p<0.001). Percent darkness was greater during morning (16%±31%) and lower during evening rush hour (0%±0%) in DST compare to either CTA (morning:7%±23%; evening:7%±14%) or ST (morning:7%±23%; evening:7%±15%). Discussion: Morning rush hour overlapped with students’ commutes and shift worker reverse commutes, which may increase traffic congestion and risk compared to evening rush hour. Switching to permanent DST may be more disruptive than either switching to ST or keeping CTA without noticeable benefit to fatigue or potential daylight exposure.

The objective of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis between rectangular-shaped ASTM D3039 specimens with different angles (0°, 15°, and 90°) and various tensile test specimens based on ASTM and ISO standards, all 3D-printed using polyethylene terephthalate glycol (PETG) material through FDM. The study aimed to assesses the weak spot commonly found at the neck of the specimens. Two different printing orientations, namely flat and on-edge, were investigated, and a comprehensive examination and comparison were made regarding the variations in tensile strength, E-modulus, strain, and elongation at break among the tested samples. Additionally, the broken areas was evaluated, and a numerical study utilizing the finite element method (FEM) was conducted to identify stress risers' locations in each specimen type. The experimental results demonstrated that the ASTM D3039-0° specimen exhibited the best tensile properties when printed in the on-edge orientation, while the flat orientation yielded the best results in terms of the broken area. On the other hand, the ISO 527-2 specimens displayed the lowest tensile properties, regardless of the printing orientation. The study highlighted the enhanced tensile properties achieved with the rectangular shape. Specifically, the tensile strength of ASTM D3039-0° was 17.87% and 21% higher than that of the ISO 527 geometry shape for the flat and on-edge orientations, respectively. The numerical analysis indicated that the ISO 527-2 specimen had either no or minimal stress raisers, and the higher stresses observed in the narrow section were isolated from the gripping location.

In an era of unparalleled technical advancement, the pharmaceutical industry is struggling to transform data into increased research and development efficiency, and as a corollary, new drugs for patients. Here, we briefly review some of the commonly discussed issues around this counterintuitive innovation crisis. Looking at both industry and science related factors, we posit that traditional preclinical research is front-loading the development pipeline with data and drug candidates that are unlikely to succeed in patients. Applying a first principles analysis, we highlight the critical culprits and provide suggestions as to how these issues can be rectified through pursuit of a Human Data-driven Discovery (HD3) paradigm. Consistent with other examples of disruptive innovation, we propose that new levels of success are not dependent on new inventions, but rather the strategic integration of existing data and technology assets. In support of these suggestions, we highlight the power of HD3, through recently published proof-of-concept applications in the areas of drug safety analysis and prediction, drug repositioning, rational design of combination therapies and the global response to the Covid19 pandemic. We conclude that innovators must play a key role in expediting the path to a largely human focused, systems-based approach to drug discovery and research.

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) refers to the emerging area of extracting physically relevant solutions to complex multiscale modeling problems and has enjoyed significant interest from the research community. This paper discusses the recent critical advancements in the PIML domain. Novel methods and applications of domain decomposition in physics-informed neural networks (PINN) in particular are highlighted. Additionally, we explore recent Works toward utilizing neural operator learning to intuit relationships in physics systems traditionally modeled by sets of complex governing equations and solved with expensive differentiation techniques. Finally, expansive applications of traditional physics-informed machine learning and potential limitations are discussed. In addition to summarizing recent work, we propose a novel taxonomic structure to catalog physics-informed machine learning based on how the physics-information is derived and injected into the machine learning process. The taxonomy assumes the explicit objectives of facilitating interdisciplinary collaboration in methodology, thereby promoting a wider characterization of what types of physics-problems are served by the physics-informed learning machines, and assisting in identifying apt targets for future work. To summarize, the major twofold goal of this work is to summarize recent advancements and introduce a taxonomic catalog for applications of physics-informed machine learning.

Background The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship structure of quality of life (QOL) in survivors of breast cancer, including difficulty in daily life and negative experience as health-related indicators. Methods Participants were survivors of breast cancer for more than 2 years after primary breast cancer surgery and belonged to self-help groups. The assessment used FACT-B (QOL), HADS (anxiety and depression), SOC (sense of coherence), WHODAS 2.0 (difficulties in daily life), and CAOD (negative experiences). Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) was performed to analyze the hypothesized model. If the causal model was significant, multiplication of the path coefficient from anxiety and depression to QOL, and from SOC to anxiety and depression, was considered a direct effect on QOL, and from SOC to difficulty in daily life, from difficulty in daily life to negative experiences, and from negative experiences to anxiety and depression were considered indirect effects on QOL. Results Goodness of fit of the model in the BSEM was satisfactory. The direct effect was 0.274, and indirect effect was 0.163. Conclusions These direct and indirect approaches to difficulties in daily life are very significant because they can provide a basis for development of support strategies to increase QOL.

Physics-informed neural networks are a promising method to yield surrogate models of flow fields. We present a metamodeling technique for variable geometries based on physics-informed neural networks. The method was applied to the DU99W350 airfoil at a Reynolds number of 1×10⁵. The model predicted the Reynolds-averaged velocity and pressure field around the airfoil for arbitrary angles of attack between 10.0° and 17.5°. The model was trained with data from CFD simulations for a limited set of angles of attack. Additionally, satisfaction of the a priori known boundary conditions as well as the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations were trained. A sensitivity analysis concerning the Reynolds number, the amount and distribution of training data, and the turbulence model was conducted showing the superiority of the pseudo-Reynolds stress method and the demand of labeled training data in the domain. The trained network was capable of predicting the developing flow separation on the suction surface and exhibited excellent agreement with CFD results even in the proximity to the wall for interpolations as well as extrapolations from the labeled data set.

The present work is a numerical simulation of velocity and mixture fraction fields in a turbulent non-reaction Propane jet flow issuing into parallel co-flowing air, in isothermal condition which has been experimentally described here: http://www.sandia.gov/TNF/DataArch/ProJet.html. The objective is a better understanding of the flow structure and mixing process, a situation in which there is no chemical interaction and heat-transfer. The two-equation Realizable k-ε eddy viscosity turbulence model has been used to simulate the turbulent flow field on a 2D plane (i.e., on a 5-degree sector of the experimental domain), because Realizable k-ε more accurately predicts the spreading rate of both planar and round jets and presents the best proficiency in comparison with all versions of the k-ε models. Afterward, axial and radial profiles of mean velocities, turbulence energy, mean mixture fraction, the mixture fraction half radius (Lf), and the mass flux diagram have been numerically elicited for grid independent mesh (mesh B) and compared with corresponding experimental data to assess the numerical model. To obtain turbulence kinetic energy, k, due to lack of w' in the experimental data, the assumption of w'=v' seems to be valid. Simulations have demonstrated that mean mixture fraction (at radial profiles at locations x/D=0, 4, 15, 30 and 50) and its half radius, Lf, which characterizes jet width expanse, are prominently well-captured; Moreover, mean vertical velocity fields (in X-direction: Umean) have revealed less accuracy but still conspicuously well-captured. However, mean vertical velocity fields (in Y-direction: Vmean) have disclosed less resolution; Likewise, turbulence kinetic energy, k, have manifested moderate accuracy (between Umean and Vmean). It should be noticed that although numerical results for absolute pressure, p, have been obtained on aforementioned sections, there were no experimental data to compare with them. Thus, the corresponding numerical data has not been demonstrated in this study.

The stick-free flight stability is an old-fashioned and non-progressive issue; nevertheless, it is still existent, and of significant importance to the design of aircraft whose control system is reversible. The problem’s existence necessitates a deep assessment of stick-free flight stability throughout the aircraft design. Up to now, this problem has been addressed using either analytical approaches, which are only related to the static stability evaluation, or performing flight tests. In this study, the problem is handled in its entirety, from static and dynamic flight stability assessment to design criteria with a comprehensive perspective. Moreover, it is also exhibited that contrary to what has been generally proposed in the literature, limiting the problem of stick-free flight stability through static stability assessment is far from the main challenge. As a brief scope, the derivation of the control surface dynamics, a stick-free trim algorithm, and assessment rationale of the stick-free static and dynamic flight stability using a simulation approach are proposed. As a consequence, the aim is to set a broad understanding for designers related to this phenomenon and add adjunct design criteria in the design optimization process by approaching it in terms of modeling, simulation, and flight test perspective.

Precision agriculture and open-source data repositories provide a plethora of field-specific ecological data about agroecosystems, but few mechanisms have been developed to turn that information into management recommendations for crop production. The On-Farm Precision Experiments (OFPE) framework is an agroecological model-based methodology to improve crop manager’s abilities to make field-scale agronomic input decisions. This work evaluates the use of field-specific experiments that employ open-source data and the data emanating from precision agriculture technologies to gain local knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability in agroeconomic performance at the sub-field scale. Quantification of the temporal variability in crop response to inputs (e.g., crop seeding rates, crop rotations, fertilizers, other soil amendments, pesticides, etc.) allows for estimation of the probability that a future management scenario will outcompete another, in terms of crop yield, crop quality, farmer net return, or environmental quality. The challenge is to integrate OFPE into applied management with minimal disruption of stakeholder practices while drawing on historic knowledge about the field and economic constraints. OFPE is the basis of a decision support system that includes a six-step cyclical process that harnesses precision agriculture technology to apply experiments and gather field-specific data, incorporates modern data management and analytical approaches, and generates management recommendations as probabilities of outcomes. The OFPE framework allows field managers to assess the tradeoffs in agronomic input management between the maximization of crop production, quality and profits from production while considering environmental effects.

With growing city tourism, there is an increasing need for urban travel demand models to consider traffic generated by visitors. Existing research has concentrated on socio-demographic and journey-related factors to determine what influences the mode choice of tourists. In contrast, revealed preference data, like travel time, is almost never considered. In this article, we present the results of discrete choice modeling of city tourists’ mode choice based on revealed preference data from a survey we conducted in Kassel, Germany. We used multinomial logit models and determined the model parameters using maximum likelihood estimations. Surprisingly, travel time played a smaller role in mode choice than understood from previously established knowledge about everyday mobility. In the final model, travel time was only significant for the alternative walking. Also, most other sociodemographic and journey-related variables showed no significant influence. The final model reproduced the mode choice, but the goodness of fit was lower than expected from other research. We conclude that modeling the travel behavior of tourists is more complex than everyday mobility. An alternative approach that we suggest would be to model trip chains rather than single trips.

Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we therefore explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985-2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5-8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolut Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a Combined forecast based on the best performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022-2029. In the majority of the catchments the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.

The building sector of most tropical countries still use predominantly primary biomass as the principal fuel. This has adverse effects like CO2 emission and deforestation and is associated with issues like poverty, ill-health, and low standard of living. Therefore, energy policies try to improve on the efficiency of firewood and charcoal end-use technologies, to palliate the negative effects. In this research, the global change assessment model (GCAM) is used, to investigate the impact of efficiency improvement on the energy consumption pattern of the building sector of developing countries. The aim of the study is to provide empirical data that would better inform policymakers on the effects of modernizing these primary fuels. The study developed three scenarios with different levels of efficiency improvements. The results show that efficiency improvement rather increases primary biomass consumption and CO2 emission. However, there is a fall in the consumption of traditional biomass in the second half of the modelling period. The increase in biomass-based fuels consumption was seen to be linked to their affordability. Therefore, policymakers need not only elaborate policies that improve biomass efficiency, but also introduce and motivate other clean cooking fuels like butane, biogas, and electricity.

Plasmodium species that cause malaria, a disease responsible for about half a million deaths per annum despite concerted efforts to combat it. The causative agent depends on type III beta phosphatidylinositol 4-kinase (PPI4K) during the development of merozoite. PPI4K is the only clinically validated Plasmodium kinase so far and its inhibitors are effective both in vitro and in vivo. In this work, a small library of ~22 000 fragments was virtually screened using PPI4K homology model to discover potential ligands of the enzyme. 16 virtual hits were selected based on ≤ -9.0 kcal/mol binding energy cut off and were subjected to similarity and substructure searching after they had passed PAINS screening. The derivatives obtained showed improved binding energies, which ranged from -10.00 to -13.80 kcal/mol. Moreover, the topmost ranking compound 31, with interesting drug-like quality was stable within the protein’s binding cavity during the 10 ns molecular dynamics simulation period. In addition, analysis of its binding pose revealed some unique binding interactions with PPI4K active site residues as the basis for the observed improved binding affinity. Overall, compound 31 appears to be a viable starting point for the development of PPI4K inhibitors with antimalarial activity.

Persistent Pain after Spinal Surgery can be successfully addressed by Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS). International guidelines strongly recommend that a lead trial be performed before any permanent implantation. Recent clinical data highlight some major limitations of this approach. First, it appears that patient outcomes, WITH OR WITHOUT lead trial, are similar. In contrast, during trialing, infection rate drops drastically within time and can compromise the therapy. Using composite pain assessment experience and previous research, we hypothesized that ma-chine learning models could be robust screening tools and reliable predictors of long-term SCS efficacy. We developed several algorithms including logistic regression, Regularized Logistic Regression (RLR), naive Bayes classifier, artificial neural networks, random forest and gradient boosted trees to test this hypothesis and to perform internal and external validations, the objec-tive being to confront model predictions with lead trial results using a 1-year composite out-come from 103 patients. While almost all models have demonstrated superiority on lead trial-ing, the RLR model appears to represent the best compromise between complexity and inter-pretability in prediction of SCS efficacy. These results underscore the need to use AI based-predictive medicine, as a synergistic mathematical approach, aimed at helping implanters to optimize their clinical choices on daily practice.

Introduction: Heat is a kinetic process whereby energy flows from between two systems; hot-to-cold objects. In oro-dental implantology, conductive heat transfer/(or thermal stress) is a complex physical phenomenon to analyze and consider in treatment planning. Hence, ample research has attempted to measure heat-production to avoid over-heating during bone-cutting and -drilling for titanium (Ti) implant-site preparation and insertion, thereby preventing/minimizing early (as well as delayed) implant-related complications and failure. Objective: Given the low bone-thermal conductivity whereby heat generated by osteotomies is not effectively dissipated and tends to remain within the surrounding tissue (peri-implant), increasing the possibility of thermal-injury; this work attempts to obtain an exact analytical solution of the heat equation under exponential thermal-stress, modeling transient heat transfer and temperature changes in Ti implants upon hot-liquid intake. Materials and Methods: We investigate the impact of the material, the location point along implant length, and the exposure time of the thermal load on temperature changes. Results: Despite its simplicity, the presented solution contains all the physics and reproduces the key features obtained in previous numerical analyses studies. To the best of knowledge, this is the first introduction of the intrinsic time, a “proper” time that characterizes the geometry of the dental implant, where we show, mathematically and graphically, how the interplay between “proper” time and exposure time influences temperature changes in Ti implants, under the suitable initial and boundary conditions. Conclusions: This work aspires to accurately complement the overall clinical diagnostic and treatment plan for enhanced bone-implant interface, implant stability and success rates, whether for immediate or delayed loading strategies.

The Ituri-Epulu-Aru landscape (IEAL) is experiencing deforestation and forest degradation. This deforestation is at the root of many environmental disturbances in a region characterized by endemism in biodiversity. This article focuses on the triangulation of spatialized prospective scenarios in order to identify future trajectories based on the knowledge of historical dynamics through the diachronic analysis of three satellite images (2003-2010-2014-2016). The scenarios were de-signed in a supervised model implemented in the DINAMICA EGO platform. The three scenarios Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth (REG) and Sustainable Management of the Environment (SME), extrapolating current trends, show that by 2061 this landscape will always be dominated forests (+ 84%). Old-growth forests occupy 74.2% of the landscape area in the BAU scenario, 81.4% in the SEM scenario and 61.2% in the REG scenario. The SEM scenario gives hope that restoration and preservation of biodiversity priority habitats is still possible if policy makers become aware of it.

Abstract: Polylactic acid (PLA) is brittle in nature with extensive deformation property. For improvement of the end-use quality, it is of significant importance to enhance the producibility of fused deposition modeling (FDM)-printed objects in PLA. The purpose of this investigation is to boost toughness and to reduce the production cost of the FDM-printed tensile test samples with the desired part thickness. To attain the research purpose number of experiments are designed and analyzed by the Response Surface Method (RSM). The statistical analysis is performed to deal with this concern considering layer thickness, infill percentage, and extruder temperature as controlled factors. The tensile test specimens are printed based on the designed experiments, and the tensile strength tests are conducted by SANTAM 150 universal testing machine based on ASTM D638. The honeycomb internal fill pattern is applied for the production of light-weight and high-strength specimens. The area under Force- Extension curve up to fracture is acquired as the toughness of the printed specimens. This study also developed a modeling process using ANN and ANN-GA techniques for developing an accurate estimation for toughness, part thickness, and production cost as dependant variables. Results were evaluated by correlation coefficient and RMSE values. According to the modeling results, ANN-GA as a hybrid ML technique could successfully improve the accuracy of modeling about 7.5, 11.5 and 4.5 % for toughness, part thickness, and production cost, respectively, in comparison with those for the single ANN method. In the other side, the optimization results confirm that the optimized specimen is cost-effective and able to comparatively undergo deformation, which develops the usability of printed PLA objects. The research is accomplished under the constraints of PLA compatibility with existing fused deposition modeling setup without changing the functional hardware/software of the machine. Although the mechanical properties and dimensional accuracy of PLA have already been studied, there is little literature on the toughness of the printed PLA with honeycomb internal fill pattern.

The high-power Asymmetric half-bridge Converter (AHBC) LED constant current driver controlled by digital current mode is a fourth-order system. Static operating point, parasitic resistance, load characteristics, sampling effect, modulation mode and loop delay will have great influence on its dynamic performance. In this paper, the small-signal pulse transfer function of the driver is established by the discrete-time modeling method for the two operating points corresponding to the three modulation modes of the trailing edge, leading edge and double edge. And, the effects of parasitic parameters, delay effect, sampling effect and load effect are fully considered in modeling. For a large number of complex exponential matrix operations, the first order Taylor formula is used for approximate calculation after the coefficient matrix is obtained by substituting the data. Then, Matlab software is used to compare and analyze the discrete-time model and the discrete-average model. The results show that the proposed discrete-time model can more accurately characterize the resonant peak and high-frequency dynamic characteristics, and is very suitable for the design of high frequency digital controller.

Residual stress (RS) is the most challenging problem in metal additive manufacturing (AM) since the build-up of high tensile RS may influence the fatigue life, corrosion resistance, crack initiation, and failure of the additively manufactured components. While tensile RS is inherent in all the AM processes, fast and accurate prediction of stress state within the part is extremely valuable and would result in optimization of the process parameters in achieving a desired RS and control of the build process. This paper proposes a physics-based analytical model to rapidly and accurately predict the RS within the additively manufactured part. In this model, a transient moving point heat source (HS) is utilized to determine the temperature field. Due to the high temperature gradient within the proximity of the melt pool area, material experience high thermal stress. Thermal stress is calculated by combining three sources of stresses known as stresses due to the body forces, normal tension, and hydrostatic stress in a homogeneous semi-infinite medium. The thermal stress determines the RS state within the part. Consequently, by taking the thermal stress history as an input, both the in-plane and out of plane RS distributions are found from incremental plasticity and kinematic hardening behavior of the metal by considering volume conservation in plastic deformation in coupling with the equilibrium and compatibility conditions. In this modeling, material properties are temperature-sensitive since the steep temperature gradient varies the properties significantly. Moreover, the energy needed for the solid-state phase transition is reflected by modifying the specific heat employing the latent heat of fusion. Furthermore, the multi-layer and multi-scan aspects of metal AM are considered by including the temperature history from previous layers and scans. Results from the analytical RS model presented excellent agreement with XRD measurements employed to determine the RS in the Ti-6Al-4V specimens.

Tailed phages are the most abundant and diverse group of viruses on the planet. Yet, the smallest tailed phages display relatively complex capsids and large genomes compared to other viruses. The lack of tailed phages forming the common icosahedral capsid architectures T = 1 and T = 3 is puzzling. Here, we extracted geometrical features from high-resolution tailed phage capsid reconstructions and built a statistical model based on physical principles to predict the capsid diameter and genome length of the missing small tailed phage capsids. We applied the model to 3,348 isolated tailed phage genomes and 1,496 gut metagenome-assembled tailed phage genomes. Four isolated tailed phages were predicted to form T = 3 icosahedral capsids, and twenty-one metagenome-assembled tailed phages were predicted to form T < 3 capsids. The smallest capsid predicted was a T = 4/3 ≈ 1.33 architecture. No tailed phages were predicted to form the smallest icosahedral architecture, T = 1. We discuss the feasibility of the missing T = 1 tailed phage capsids and the implications of isolating and characterizing small tailed phages for viral evolution and phage therapy.

Residual stress (RS) is the most challenging problem in metal additive manufacturing (AM) since the build-up of high tensile RS may influence the fatigue life, corrosion resistance, crack initiation, and failure of the additively manufactured components. While tensile RS is inherent in all the AM processes, fast and accurate prediction of stress state within the part is extremely valuable and would result in optimization of the process parameters in achieving a desired RS and control of the build process. This paper proposes a physics-based analytical model to rapidly and accurately predict the RS within the additively manufactured part. In this model, a transient moving point heat source (HS) is utilized to determine the temperature field. Due to the high temperature gradient within the proximity of the melt pool area, material experience high thermal stress. Thermal stress is calculated by combining three sources of stresses known as stresses due to the body forces, normal tension, and hydrostatic stress in a homogeneous semi-infinite medium. The thermal stress determines the RS state within the part. Consequently, by taking the thermal stress history as an input, both the in-plane and out of plane RS distributions are found from incremental plasticity and kinematic hardening behavior of the metal by considering volume conservation in plastic deformation in coupling with the equilibrium and compatibility conditions. In this modeling, material properties are temperature-sensitive since the steep temperature gradient varies the properties significantly. Moreover, the energy needed for the solid-state phase transition is reflected by modifying the specific heat employing the latent heat of fusion. Furthermore, the multi-layer and multi-scan aspects of metal AM are considered by including the temperature history from previous layers and scans. Results from the analytical RS model presented excellent agreement with XRD measurements employed to determine the RS in the Ti-6Al-4V specimens.

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

During the period January 2014 – October 2018, four strong earthquakes occurred in the Ionian Sea, Greece. A rich aftershock sequence followed each event of them. More analytically, according to the manual solutions of National Observatory of Athens, the first event (K1), occurred on 26 January 2014 in Kefallinia Island with magnitude M_L = 5.8, which was followed by another in the same region (K2) on 3 February 2014 with magnitude M_L = 5.7. The third event occurred on 17 November 2015, M_L = 6.0 in Lefkas Island (L1) and the last on 25 October 2018, M_L = 6.6 in Zande Island (Z1). The first three of these earthquakes caused moderate structural damages mainly in houses and produced particular unrest to the local population. This work presents first the calculation of the source parameters of the strong events as well as for all earthquakes with magnitude M_L > 4.0, using the methodology of the Moment tensor inversion and secondary data from permanent GPS stations were analyzed to confirm the findings from seismological data and to investigate the displacement due to the earthquakes.

Three finger toxins (3FTX) are a group of peptides that affect multiple receptor types. One group of proteins affected by 3FTX are nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR). Structural information on how neurotoxins interact with nAChR is limited and are confined to a small group of neurotoxins. Therefore, in silico methods are valuable in understanding the interactions between 3FTX and different nAChR subtypes, but there are no established protocols to model 3FTX – nAChR interactions. We developed a homology modeling and protein docking protocol to address this issue and tested its success on three different systems. First, neurotoxin peptides co-crystallized with acetylcholine binding protein (AChBP) were re-docked to assess whether Rosetta protein – protein docking can reproduce the native poses. Second, experimental data on peptide binding to AChBP was used to test whether the docking protocol can qualitatively distinguish AChBP-binders from non-binders. Finally, we docked eight peptides with known α7 and muscle-type nAChR binding properties to test whether the protocol can explain the differential activities of the peptides at the two receptor subtypes. Overall, our docking protocol succeeded in predicting both qualitative and specific aspects of 3FTX binding to nAChR and shed light on some unknown aspects of 3FTX binding to different receptor subtypes.

Pressure fluctuations beneath hydraulic jumps downstream of Ogee spillways potentially damage stilling basin beds. This paper deals with the extreme pressures underneath free hydraulic jumps along a smooth stilling basin. The experiments were conducted in a laboratory flume. From the probability distribution of measured instantaneous pressures, the pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities (P*a%) could be determined. It was verified that the maximum pressure fluctuations, as well as the negative pressures, are located at the positions closest to the spillway toe. The minimum pressure fluctuations are located at the downstream of hydraulic jumps. It was possible to assess the cumulative curves of P*a% related to the characteristic points along the basin, and different Froude numbers. To benchmark, the results, the dimensionless forms of mean pressures, standard deviations, and pressures with different non-exceedance probabilities were assessed. It was found that an existing methodology can be used to interpret the present data, and pressure distribution in similar conditions, by using a new third-order polynomial relationship for the standard deviation (σ*X) with the determination coefficient (R2) equal to 0.717. It was verified that the new optimized adjustment gives more accurate results for the estimation of the maximum extreme pressures than the minimum extreme pressures.

Three-dimensional structure of six closely related hydrogenases from purple bacteria has been modeled by combining template-based and ab initio modeling approach. The results lead to conclusion that there should be 4Fe3S-cluster in the structure of these enzymes. Thus, these hydrogenases could drive attention for exploring their oxygen tolerance and practical applicability in hydrogen fuel cells. Analysis of 4Fe3S-cluster's microenvironment showed intragroup heterogeneity. Possible function of the C-terminal part of the small subunit in membrane binding has been discussed. Comparison of the built models with existing hydrogenases of the same subgroup (membrane-bound oxygen-tolerant hydrogenases) has been carried out. Analysis of intramolecular interactions in the large subunits showed statistically reliable differences in number of hydrophobic interactions and number of ionic interactions. Molecular tunnels were mapped in the models and compared with structures from PDB. Protein-protein docking showed that these enzymes could exchange electrons in oligomeric state, which is important for oxygen-tolerant hydrogenases. Molecular docking with model electrode compounds showed mostly the same results as with hydrogenases from E.coli, H. marinus, R. eutropha, S. enterica; some interesting results were shown in case of HupSL from Rba. sphaeroides and Rvx. gelatinosus.

Deep behavioral covariates (DBCs) introduced in this perspective form a new class of covariates that have the potential to enhance the performance of predictive models and improve analytics in clinical decision support applications. DBCs can measure how engaged a patient tends to be and how he or she tends to respond to events, and they may be highly predictive of the patient’s outcomes for a planned treatment. DBCs may potentially serve as a standard to measure patient engagement and activation and may form highly efficient mechanisms for improving patient outcomes.

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one.

Transient flows result in unbalanced forces and high pressure in pipelines. Under these conditions, the combined effects of flow-induced forces along with sudden pipe displacements can create cracks in the pipeline, especially at the junctions. This situation consequently results in water leakage and reduced operational efficiency of the pipeline. In this study, displacements and stresses in a buried pressurized water transmission pipe installed by pipe jacking method are investigated using numerical modeling and considering interactions between fluid, pipe, and soil. The analyses were performed consecutively under no-flow, steady flow, and transient flow conditions, in order to investigate the effects of flow conditions on displacements and stresses in the system. Analyses of the results show that displacements and stresses in the jointed concrete pipes are significant under transient flow conditions. Moreover, because of pressure transient effects, maximum tensile stresses exceed the tensile strength of concrete at the junctions, leading to cracks and consequent water leakage.

Background: New open-source electric-grid planning models have the potential to improve power system planning and bring a wider range of stakeholders into the planning process for next-generation, high-renewable power systems. However, it has not yet been established whether open-source models perform similarly to the more established commercial models for power system analysis. This reduces their credibility and attractiveness to stakeholders, postponing the benefits they could offer. In this paper, we report the first model intercomparison between an open-source power system model and an established commercial production cost model. Results: We compare the open-source Switch 2.0 to GE Energy Consulting’s Multi Area Production Simulation (MAPS) for production-cost modeling, considering hourly operation under 17 scenarios of renewable energy adoption in Hawaii. We find that after configuring Switch with similar inputs to MAPS, the two models agree closely on hourly and annual production from all power sources. Comparing production gave a coefficient of determination of 0.996 across all energy sources and scenarios, indicating that the two models agree on 99.6% of the variation. For individual energy sources, the coefficient of determination was 69–100. Conclusions: Although some disagreement remains between the two models, this work indicates that Switch is a viable choice for renewable integration modeling, at least for the small power systems considered here. Although some disagreement remains between the two models, this work indicates that Switch is a viable choice for renewable integration modeling, at least for the small power systems considered here.

This work presents a novel approach to construct surrogate models of parametric Differential Algebraic Equations based on a tensor representation of the solutions. The procedure consists in building simultaneously, for every output of the reference model, an approximation given in tensor-train format. A parsimonious exploration of the parameter space coupled with a compact data representation allows to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. The approach is thus appropriate when many parameters with large domains of variation are involved. The numerical results obtained for a nonlinear elasto-viscoplastic constitutive law show that the constructed surrogate model is sufficiently accurate to enable parametric studies such as the calibration of material coefficients.

Selective laser melting (SLM) is one of the widely used techniques in metallic additive manufacturing, in which high-density laser powder is utilized to selectively melting layers of powders to create geometrically complex parts. Temperature distribution and molten pool geometry directly determine the balling effect, and concentrated balling phenomenon significantly deteriorates surface integrity and mechanical properties of the part. Finite element models have been developed to predict temperature distribution and molten pool geometry, but they were computationally expensive. In this paper, the three-dimensional temperature distributions are predicted by analytical models using point moving heat source and semi-ellipsoidal moving source respectively. The molten pool dimensions under various process conditions are obtained from the three-dimensional temperature predictions and experimentally validated. Ti-6Al-4V alloy is chosen for the investigation. Good agreements between the predictions and the measurements are observed. The presented models are also suitable for other metallic materials in the SLM process.

Power disaggregation aims at determining the appliance-by-appliance electricity consumption leveraging upon a single meter only, which measures the entire power demand. Data-driven procedures based on Factorial Hidden Markov Models have been proven remarkable results on energy disaggregation. Nevertheless, those procedures have various weaknesses: there is a scalability problem as the number of devices to observe raises and the algorithmic complexity of the inference step is severe. DNN architectures, such as Convolutional Neural Networks, have demonstrated to be a viable solution to deal with FHMMs shortcomings. Nonetheless, there are two significant limitations: a complicated and time-consuming training system based on back-propagation has to be employed to estimates the neural architecture parameters, and large amounts of training data covering as many operation conditions as possible need to be collected to attain top performances. In this work, we aim to overcome those limitations by leveraging upon the unique and useful characteristics of the extreme learning machine technique, which is based on a collection of randomly chosen hidden units and analytically defined output weights. Experiment evaluation has been conducted using the UK-DALE corpus. We find that the suggested approach achieves similar performances to recently proposed ANN-based methods and outperforms FHMMs. Besides, our solution generalises well to unseen houses.

In this paper, we introduce the evolve-then-filter (EF) regularization method for reduced order modeling of convection-dominated stochastic systems. The standard Galerkin projection reduced order model (G-ROM) yield numerical oscillations in a convection-dominated regime. The evolve-then-filter reduced order model (EF-ROM) aims at the numerical stabilization of the standard G-ROM, which uses explicit ROM spatial filter to regularize various terms in the reduced order model (ROM). Our numerical results based on a stochastic Burgers equation with linear multiplicative noise. It shows that the EF-ROM is significantly better results than G-ROM.

Object. Flooding in Ukraine is a common natural phenomenon that repeats periodically and in some cases it becomes disastrous. In an average year floods on the rivers of Volyn region take place from one to three times which extend beyond the limits of the floodplain. The floodplain of Styr river is located in the historical center of Lutsk city, that`s why issues of research and forecasting of floods are very important for a given city. Methodology. Using modern technologies of geodesy and remote sensing allows to quickly determine and predict the floodplain area of settlements. Based on the statistical data of the Volyn Regional Center for Hydrometeorology during the 7 year period 2011-2017 about water levels of the river Styr. We conducted mathematical modeling of fluctuations of water levels within the territory of Lutsk, based on creating a partial Fourier series for discrete values of middle-ten-day water levels values. The post hydrological measurements of Styr river water levels in the territory of Lutsk located on the Shevchenko Street comply with an altitude 172.87 meters. Based on the data of short-term flood forecasting in February and March, and relief data from the Department of Architecture and Urban Development of Volyn State Administration, we conducted visualization of the results using geographic information system QGIS. Results. The results of mathematical processing were the basis for geoinformation simulation of flooded areas using remote sensing data that are publicly available. Use of statistical and geospatial data in this article has great potential for further application in modeling the processes of natural and technogenic origin. Scientific novelty. The mathematical model of short-term forecasting of water levels during the flood period on the river Styr with implementation of geoinformation modeling of flooded areas using remote sensing data is proposed. Practical significance. The research results of water level changes on the Styr River and flood zones within the limits of Lutsk is proposed. The spring flood in February-March 2018, with the maximum water level 5.33 m, corresponds to an absolute mark of 178.20 m, which is forecasted in this article.

Humans are incapable of judging the temporal order of visual events at brief temporal separations with perfect accuracy. Their performance---which is of much interest in visual cognition and attention research---can be measured with the temporal-order judgment task, which typically produces S-shaped psychometric functions. Occasionally, researchers reported plateaus within these functions, and some theories predict such deviation from the basic S shape. However, the centers of the psychometric functions result from the weakest performance at the most difficult presentations and therefore fluctuate strongly, leaving existence and exact shapes of plateaus unclear. This study set out to investigate whether plateaus disappear if the data accuracy is enhanced, or if we are ``stuck on a plateau'', or rather with it. For this purpose, highly accurate data were assessed by model-based analysis. The existence of plateaus is confidently confirmed and two plausible mechanisms derived from very different models are presented. Neither model, however, performs well in the presence of a strong attention manipulation, and model comparison remains unclear on the question which of the models describes the data best. Nevertheless, the present study includes the highest accuracy in visual TOJ data and the most explicit models of plateaus in TOJ studied so far.

Building information modeling (BIM) is the digital representation of physical and functional characteristics (such as geometry, spatial relationship, and geographic information) of a facility to support decisions during its life cycle. BIM has been extended beyond 3D geometrical representations in recent years, and now includes time as a fourth dimension and cost as a fifth dimension, as well as such other applications as virtual reality and augmented reality. The Internet of Things (IoT) has been increasingly applied in various products (smart homes, wearables) to enhance work productivity, living comfort, and entertainment. However, research addressing the integration of these two technologies (BIM and IoT) is still very limited, and has focused exclusively on the automatic transmission of sensor information to BIM models. This paper describes an attempt to represent and visualize sensor data in BIM with multiple perspectives in order to support complex decisions requiring interdisciplinary information. The study uses a university campus as an example and includes several scenarios, such as an auditorium with a dispersed audience and energy saving options for rooms with different functions (mechanical/electric equipment, classrooms, and laboratory). This paper also discusses the design of a common platform allowing communication among sensors with different protocols (Arduino, Raspberry Pi), the use of Dynamo to accept sensor data as input and automatically redraw visualized information in BIM, and how visualization may help in making energy-saving management decisions.

Finely ground glass has the potential for pozzolanic reactivity and can serve as a supplementary cementitious material (SCM). Glass reaction kinetics depends on both temperature and glass composition. Microstructural modeling is a helpful approach to get better understanding of cement hydration and microstructure development. Mechanical and performance properties of concrete are directly related to the development of concrete microstructure, which is the consequence of progress in cement hydration. This study initially provides a comprehensive background about cement hydration process and microstructural modeling of the hydration. It then utilizes results of experimental studies, i.e. isothermal calorimetry and thermogravimetric analysis, to find kinetics equation parameters called “Avrami Constants”. For the first time, these constants were found for three main components of cement, i.e. C₃S, C₂S, and C₃A, and also for glass particles smaller than 25 µm. Although modeling of cement hydration and cementitious systems containing single glass particles showed promising results, simulations of combined glass types and sizes showed that more work on microstructural models is needed to properly model the reactivity of mixed glass particle systems.

Discovery of inhibitors for endothelial-related transcription factors can contribute to the development of angiogenic therapies that treat diseases ranging from cardiovascular to cancer. The role of transcription factor Vezf1 in vascular development and regulation of angiogenesis has been defined by several earlier studies. Through construction of a computational model for Vezf1, work here has identified a novel small molecule drug capable of inhibiting Vezf1 from binding to its cognate DNA binding site. Using structure-based design and virtual screening of the NCI Diversity Compound Library, 12 shortlisted compounds were tested for their ability to interfere with the binding of Vezf1 to DNA using electrophoretic gel mobility shift assays. We identified one compound, T4, which has an IC50 of 20uM. Using murine endothelial cells, MSS31, we tested the effect of T4 on endothelial cell viability and angiogenesis by using tube formation assay. Our data show that addition of T4 in cell culture medium does not affect cell viability at concentrations lower or equal to its IC 50 but strongly inhibits the network formation by MSS31 in the tube formation assays. Given its potential efficacy, this inhibitor has significant therapeutic potential in several human diseases raging from wound healing to cancer.

Floods in Ukraine is a common natural phenomenon that repeats periodically and in some cases it becomes disastrous signs. In an average year in the rivers of Volyn passes from one to three floods with going beyond the limits of the floodplain. Floodplain of Styr river is located in the historical center of Lutsk city, that`s why issues of research and forecasting of floods are very important for a given city. Using modern technologies of geodesy and remote sensing allows to quickly determine and predict the floodplain area of settlements. The research results of water level changes on the Styr River and flood zones within the limits of Lutsk is proposed. The mathematical model of short-term forecasting of water level in flood period on the river Styr with implementation of geoinformation modeling of flooded areas using remote sensing data is proposed.

Studies performed at single-cell resolution have demonstrated the physiological significance of cell-to-cell variability. Various types of mathematical models and systems analyses of biological networks have further been used to gain a better understanding of the sources and regulatory mechanisms of such variability. In this work, we present a novel sensitivity analysis method, called molecular density function perturbation (MDFP), for the dynamical analysis of cellular heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is based on introducing perturbations to the density or distribution function of the cellular state variables at specific time points, and quantifying how such perturbations affect the state distribution at later time points. We applied the MDFP analysis to a model of signal transduction pathway involved in TRAIL (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand)-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. The MDFP analysis showed that caspase-8 activation regulates the timing of the switch-like increase of cPARP (cleaved poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase), an indicator of apoptosis. Meanwhile, the cell-to-cell variability in the commitment to apoptosis depended on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP) and events following MOMP, including the release of Smac (second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases) and cytochrome-C from mitochondria, the inhibition of XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis) by Smac and the formation of apoptosome.

Liquid propellants are fast becoming attractive for pulsed plasma thrusters due to their high efficiency and low contamination issues. However, the complete plasma interaction and acceleration processes are still not very clear. Present paper develops a multi-layer numerical model for liquid propellant PPTs. The model proposes a possible acceleration mechanism for liquid fed pulsed plasma thrusters and accurately predicts the propellant utilization capabilities and estimations for the fraction of propellant gas that is completely ionized and accelerated to high exit velocities. Validation of the numerical model and the assumptions on which the model is based on is achieved by comparing the experimental results from two different liquid-fed thrusters developed at the University of Tokyo. Results show 50% of liquid propellant injected is completely ionized and accelerated to high exit velocities (> 50Km/s), whereas, neutral gas contribute to only 7% of the total specific impulse and accelerated to low exit velocity (< 4Km/s). The model shows an accuracy up-to 92%. Optimization methods are briefly discussed to ensure efficient propellant utilization and performance. The model acts as a tool to understand the background physics and to optimize the performance for liquid-fed PPTs.

The role of human resource management practices and organizational loyalty dealing with employee retention has been widely explored and examined in the existing literature. The majority of human resource management researchers have focused on the role of policies and practices in different sectors related to employee retention. However, less attention has been given to identifying the practices and procedures common across all industries and sectors. The present study attempts to determine and examine the most important constructs like HR practices and organizational loyalty of employee retention management and proposes a comprehensive structural equation model to measure the impact of these constructs on employee retention. After an extensive review of the literature, organizational loyalty, and human resources management practices like recruitment and selection, compensation and benefit, training and development, supervision and evaluation have been identified as four essential practices dealing with employee retention and are common across all industries. These practices constitute the component factors of an employee retention management predicting employee’s turnover intentions. The survey method was adopted, and the original data obtained through the self-administered questionnaire. The valid one hundred and eighty-nine (189) respondents analyzed by using Lisrel 8.7, Structural equation model (SEM) analysis results shows that human resource management practices and organizational loyalty have strong positive impact on employee retention. This study tends to assist human resource managers and decision makers in selecting the appropriate motivating factors to retain and satisfy their employees

A copula is a useful tool for constructing bivariate and/or multivariate distributions. In this article, we consider a new modified class of (Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern) FGM bivariate copula for constructing several dierent bivariate Kumaraswamy type copulas and discuss their structural properties, including dependence structures. It is established that construction of bivariate distributions by this method allows for greater flexibility in the values of Spearman's correlation coefficient rho,  and Kendall's tau . For illustrative purposes, one representative data set is utilized to exhibit the applicability of these proposed bivariate copula models.

The bottleneck in creating dynamic models of biological networks and processes often lies in estimating unknown kinetic model parameters from experimental data. In this regard, experimental conditions have a strong influence on parameter identifiability and should therefore be optimized to give the maximum information for parameter estimation. Existing model-based design of experiment (MBDOE) methods commonly rely on the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) for defining a metric of data informativeness. When the model behavior is highly nonlinear, FIM-based criteria may lead to suboptimal designs since the FIM only accounts for the linear variation of the model outputs with respect to the parameters. In this work, we developed a multi-objective optimization (MOO) MBDOE, where model nonlinearity was taken into consideration through the use of curvature. The proposed MOO MBDOE involved maximizing data informativeness using a FIM-based metric and at the same time minimizing the model curvature. We demonstrated the advantages of the MOO MBDOE over existing FIM-based and other curvature-based MBDOEs in an application to the kinetic modeling of fed-batch fermentation of Baker's yeast.

Food systems will need to undergo considerable transformation. To be better prepared for and resilient to uncertainty and disturbances in the future, resource users and managers need to further develop knowledge about the food and farming system, with its dominating feedback structures and complexities, and to test robust and integrated system-based solutions. This paper investigates how participatory system dynamics modeling can be adapted to groups at the community level with low or no formal educational background. The paper also analyzes the refinement of workshop participants’ mental models as a consequence of a participatory system dynamics intervention. For this purpose, we ran two workshops with small-scale farmers in Zambia. Analysis of workshop data and post-workshop interviews shows that participatory system dynamics is well adaptable to support an audience-specific learning-by-doing approach. The use of pictures, objects and water glasses in combination with the basic aspects of causal loop diagramming makes for a well-balanced toolbox. Participants acquire understanding that is also relevant beyond systems thinking in that is offers a range of practical insights such as a critical evaluation of common food security strategies.

A U.S. government health agency conducted epidemiological studies to evaluate whether exposures to drinking water contaminated with volatile organic compounds at U.S. Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, were associated with increased health risks to children and adults. These health studies required knowledge of contaminant concentrations in drinking water—at monthly intervals—delivered to family housing, barracks, and other facilities within the study area. Because concentration data were limited or unavailable during much of the period of contamination (1950s–1985), the historical reconstruction process was used to quantify estimates of monthly mean contaminant-specific concentrations. This paper integrates many efforts, reports, and papers into a synthesis of the overall approach to, and results from, a drinking-water historical reconstruction study. Results show that at the Tarawa Terrace water treatment plant (WTP) reconstructed (simulated) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 183 micrograms per liter (ug/L) compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 215 ug/L and exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s current maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 5 ug/L during the period November 1957–February 1987. At the Hadnot Point WTP, reconstructed trichloroethylene (TCE) concentrations reached a maximum monthly average value of 783 ug/L compared to a one-time maximum measured value of 1,400 ug/L during the period August 1953–December 1984. The Hadnot Point WTP also provided contaminated drinking water to the Holcomb Boulevard housing area continuously prior to June 1972, when the Holcomb Boulevard WTP came on line (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 32 ug/L) and intermittently during the period June 1972–February 1985 (maximum reconstructed TCE concentration of 66 ug/L). Applying the historical reconstruction process to quantify contaminant-specific monthly drinking-water concentrations is advantageous for epidemiological studies when compared to using the classical exposed versus unexposed approach.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection (LTBI) poses a significant public health challenge, especially in populations with high HIV prevalence and limited healthcare access. Early detection and targeted interventions are essential to prevent the progression of active tuberculosis. This study develops predictive models for LTBI outcomes using logistic regression and machine learning approaches and evaluates strategies to improve LTBI awareness and testing. Data from rural areas in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, were analyzed to identify key demographic, health, and knowledge-related factors influencing LTBI outcomes. Logistic regression was employed to pre-dict LTBI positivity based on factors such as age, education, and HIV status. Machine learning models, including decision trees and random forests, were also applied to compare predictive accuracy. A knowledge diffusion model was used to assess the impact of educational interventions on increasing LTBI awareness and testing rates. Logistic regression achieved an accuracy of 66.67% with high precision (80%) but low recall (33%) for LTBI-positive cases, identifying age, HIV status, and LTBI awareness as significant predictors. The random forest model outperformed logistic regression in accuracy (59.26%) and F1-score (0.63), providing a better balance between precision and recall. Feature importance analysis revealed that age, occupation, and knowledge of LTBI symptoms were the most critical factors across both models. The knowledge diffusion model demonstrated that targeted interventions significantly increased LTBI awareness and testing, particularly in high-risk groups. While logistic regression offers more interpretable results for public health interventions, machine learning models like random forests provide enhanced predictive power by capturing complex relationships between demographics and health factors. These findings highlight the need for targeted educational campaigns and increased LTBI testing in high-risk populations, particularly those with limited awareness of LTBI symptoms.

This study explores integrating Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology into risk management practices for construction projects, aiming to enhance project performance through improved risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. The research employs the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize BIM-based strategies across multiple risk management dimensions, including technical, financial, sustainability, and time management. The findings demonstrate that BIM-financial strategies rank most among BIM-driven risk management, followed by sustainability and time. In contrast, Technical, Operation, and maintenance capabilities have the lowest rank. Given the high priority of BIM financial strategies, it has been applied to conduct sensitivity analysis; the sensitivity analysis results demonstrate the dynamic nature of BIM sub-criteria strategy in response to changes in the weight of financial considerations. As financial concerns diminish, the shift towards sustainability, health, safety, and time efficiency underscores the importance of a more balanced approach in BIM strategy prioritization. BIM- risk management improves project outcomes by enabling real-time data-driven decision-making, enhancing stakeholder collaboration, and optimizing resource use, cost control, and sustainability. This research contributes to theoretical and practical advancements in construction risk management, suggesting that BIM can be a transformative tool for optimizing project performance while addressing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the construction industry.

Modern methods of designing and constructing hydraulic pumps can no longer be imagined without the use of appropriate mathematical models, phenomena and processes that take place in concrete constructions. A mathematical model of a process represents an analytical interpretation with certain assumptions. Obtaining a mathematical model requires detailed theoretical research, based on knowledge of the laws of fundamental sciences and scientific disciplines in order to fully understand and interpret the process, based on which assumptions are adopted and model equations are defined. As mobile machines continue to evolve, so do the demands on their hydraulic systems. Efficiency, automation and other major industry trends present ongoing development opportunities for hydraulic systems used in mobile applications. Hydraulic systems remain an important component in a range of mobile applications, from construction and agricultural equipment to heavy trucks because of the power density they can provide for a range of work functions. The power density of hydraulics remains unmatched in many applications. The pump, as an essential hydraulic component, converts mechanical energy into hydraulic energy with a relatively small amount and speed of fluid.

The construction industry, characterized by high energy use and carbon emissions, necessitates a thorough and accurate life cycle assessment (LCA). This review investigates how building information modeling (BIM) software can streamline the LCA process to improve both efficiency and precision. Although BIM has considerable potential, challenges remain, such as issues with software interoperability and a lack of standardized options for BIM-integrated LCA tools. The review also evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of various BIM software, LCA tools, and energy consumption tools, and highlights case studies of BIM-LCA integration. It provides a critical analysis of methods and techniques for BIM-LCA integration and data exchange, including the import of bills of quantities, Industry Foundation Classes (IFC), the use of BIM viewers, direct LCA calculations with BIM plugins, and calculations using LCA plugins. The study concludes with future outlooks, aiming to direct the development of improved LCA tools that offer better integration with BIM software, which is crucial for advancing sustainable construction practices.

In today’s data-driven marketing landscape, accurately predicting customer responses to marketing campaigns is critical for optimizing engagement and return on investment (ROI). This study utilizes a Decision Tree (DT) model to identify key factors influencing customer behaviour. Initially, the model achieved a high accuracy of 87.3% but struggled with precision and recall due to class imbalance. By applying a resampling technique, the model’s performance improved significantly, with a recall increase from 44% to 83.1% and an F1-score improvement from 49% to 74.2%. Key influential features identified include how recently a customer made a purchase, the number of days they have been a customer, and the number of previous campaigns they responded to. The study highlights the DT model’s interpretability, making it a practical tool for marketing professionals to improve campaign effectiveness and customer targeting.

One of the most common shoulder injuries is rotator cuff tear (RCT). The risk of RCTs increases with age, with a prevalence of 9.7% in those under 20 years old to 62% in individuals aged 80 and older. In this article, we present first Microwave Digital Twin Prototype (MDTP) for RCT detection, based on machine learning (ML) and advanced numerical modeling of the system. We generate a generalizable dataset of scattering parameters through flexible numerical modeling, in order to bypass real-world data collection challenges. This involves solving the linear system in result of finite element discretization of the forward problem with use of domain decomposition method to accelerate the computations. We use support vector machine (SVM) to differentiate between injured and healthy shoulder models. This approach is more efficient in terms of required memory resources and computing time compared to the traditional imaging methods.

The real-time input of ground motions can effectively assess earthquake disasters in building structures. In this study, we proposed a nearby real-time simulation method that can be applied to assess regional earthquake disasters using structural monitoring recordings based on an urban earthquake simulation system. Real-time accelerations recorded during the 5.1 magnitude Tangshan earthquake were used to update and modify the computing models. El Centro waves were calibrated to 400 cm/s2 for structural seismic resilience analyses. The results indicated that approximately 70% of the structural functions were lost during rare earthquakes. Regional numerical models of 216 buildings were constructed and timeously updated using the Geographic Information System and measured data. The inputting ground motions recorded in the 5.1 magnitude Tangshan earthquake and typical El Centro waves were selected to analyze the structural seismic response, in which the damage indexes were computed, and the damage predictions of regional 216 buildings were also simulated in different levels of earthquakes by being combined with the simplified principles of structural damage estimation. Finally, the evaluation results were visualized in three dimensions using ParaView software. The simulated results of earthquake disasters at an urban scale will promote the prediction abilities of local earthquake administration agencies and have considerable potential to provide essential information for emergency responses and regional disaster mitigation.

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is undeniably the most important trend in the digitization of the construction sector in recent years. BIM models currently being built are extremely geometrically rich, that is, they are modeled at a high level of detail in terms of geometry. Thanks to object-oriented programming paradigms, BIM models include high-level relationships to ensure interactions between objects, rapid view generation and documentation. However, these models are not always equally rich in non-graphical data. This is true for parameters at the library object level, with which building object models are saturated, but also at the project, site, building or floor level according to the structure of the interoperable Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) format. For this reason, experimental work was undertaken on semantic enrichment in non-graphical data of a public building (Public Kindergarten, Secemin, Poland), which has its BIM model at a high level of geometric detail but is poor in non-graphical data. As a result of the research and development work, all levels of the IFC structure were saturated with non-graphical data, validated, and the possibilities of their use were shown from the perspective of the facility manager. The article contributes to the discussion on semantic enrichment from CAD3D to BIM by presenting a detailed process for entering non-graphical data into a BIM model.

This article introduces the Theory of Inverse Discrete Dynamical Systems (TIDDS), a novel methodology for modeling and analyzing discrete dynamical systems via inverse algebraic models. Key concepts such as inverse modeling, structural analysis of inverse algebraic trees, and the establishment of topological equivalences for property transfer between a system and its inverse are elucidated. Central theorems on homeomorphic invariance and topological transport validate the transfer of cardinal attributes between dynamic representations, offering a fresh perspective on complex system analysis. A significant application presented is an alternative proof of the Collatz Conjecture, achieved by constructing an associated inverse model and leveraging analytical property transfers within the inverted tree structure. This work not only demonstrates the theory's capability to address and solve open problems in discrete dynamics but also suggests vast implications for expanding our understanding of such systems.

Significant changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) have widespread implications for the environment, economy, and society; influencing future sustainability and development of a region. This study aimed to assess LULC changes for a 30 year period (1990 – 2020) and project future LULC from 2030 to 2100 for the Irrawaddy Delta using remote sensing and simulations with the artificial neural networks-cellular automata method. The findings showed significant LULC changes in the Delta, particularly for the mangrove forests and cropland (rice paddies). Mangrove coverage was 1,471 km² in 1990 but decreased to 1,282 km² in 2020, and simulations predict a further reduction to 1,277 km² in 2100. Cropland areas increased from 10,550 km² to 10,618 km² in 2020, with simulations projecting a slight decrease to 10,586 km² by 2100. Human activities and cyclonic events, especially in the southern part of the region, have led to barren land and impervious areas replacing dense mangrove and forested areas. These changes threaten the ecological integrity of the Delta and impact local livelihoods and biodiversity. The study underscores the need for sustainable land management practices and policies to mitigate the adverse effects of LULC changes and ensure the resilience of the Irrawaddy Delta against ongoing environmental challenges.

In metal additive manufacturing (AM), precise temperature field prediction is crucial for process monitoring, automation, control, and optimization. Traditional methods, primarily offline and data-driven, struggle with adapting to real-time changes and new process scenarios, which limits their applicability for effective AM process control. To address these challenges, this paper introduces the first physics-informed (PI) online learning framework specifically designed for temperature prediction in metal AM. Utilizing a physics-informed neural network (PINN), this framework integrates a neural network architecture with physics-informed inputs and loss functions. Pretrained on a known process to establish a baseline, the PINN transitions to an online learning phase, dynamically updating its weights in response to new, unseen data. This adaptation allows the model to continuously refine its predictions in real-time. By integrating physics-informed components, the PINN leverages prior knowledge about the manufacturing processes, enabling rapid adjustments to process parameters, geometries, deposition patterns, and materials. Empirical results confirm the robust performance of this PI online learning framework in accurately predicting temperature fields for unseen processes across various conditions. It notably surpasses traditional data-driven models, especially in critical areas like the Heat Affected Zone (HAZ) and melt pool. The PINN’s use of physical laws and prior knowledge not only provides a significant advantage over conventional models but also ensures more accurate predictions under diverse conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of key hyper-parameters—learning rate and batch size of the online learning phase—highlights their roles in optimizing the learning process and enhancing the framework’s overall effectiveness. This approach demonstrates significant potential to improve the online control and optimization of metal AM processes.

To curb the impacts arising from the agricultural sector the actions undertaken by policymakers, and ultimately by the farmers, are of paramount importance. However, finding the best strategy to reduce impacts, and especially assessing the effects of the interactions and mutual influence among farmers, is very difficult. To this aim, this paper shows an application of an agent-based model (ABM) coupled with life cycle assessment (LCA), which also includes multi objective optimization of farming activities (including both crop cultivation and livestock breeding) from an economic and environmental perspective. The environmental impacts are assessed using the impact assessment scores calculated with the Environmental Footprint (EF) 3.0 life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) method and the study is conducted “from cradle to farm gate”. The model is applied to all the farms in Luxembourg, whose network is constructed utilizing neighborhood interactions, through which a parameter known as farmer's green consciousness (GC) is updated at each time step. The optimization module is instantiated at the end of each time step, and decision variables (the number of livestock units and land allocation) are assigned based on profitability and specified environmental impact categories. If only profit optimization is considered (i.e. when farmers’ GC is de-activated), the results show a 9% reduction in the aggregated environmental impacts (obtained as EF “single score”) and a 5.5% increase in overall profitability. At the farm level, simulations display a clear trade-off between environmental sustainability and financial stability, with a 25% reduction in overall emissions possible if farming activities are carried using the EF single score impact in the objective function, though this results in an 8% reduction in profitability over ten years.

The production of Moringa oleifera capsules has emerged as a promising agricultural activity in Mexico, driven by the plant’s well-documented health and nutritional benefits. In response, farmers have begun producing Moringa oleifera as a dietary supplement, using artisanal methods with minimal production controls. This study aimed to estimate the processing times of the Moringa oleifera production system using simulation modeling with Arena® software, and to evaluate the economic feasibility of capsule production. Methodologically, it was approached as a case study in the state of Veracruz, processing times were estimated through systematic sampling and modeled with Arena simulation software. Three simulation scenarios were considered to select a technically and economically viable alternative for agricultural producers: one with a 200-capsule encapsulator (1E200C), another with two 200-capsule encapsulators (2E200C) and a third with an 800-capsule encapsulator (1E800C). For the initial diagnosis a research stay was conducted for 180 days, and the production capacity was set at 24,000 capsules due to raw material limitations. Results indicated that the 1E800C scenario reduced processing time by 60% compared to the1E200C scenario, and by 35% compared to the 2E200C scenario. Additionally, the 1E800C model required only 2 days (16 hours) of work, while the 2E200C required 4 days (32 hours), and the 1E200C required 7 days (56 hours). In terms of production costs per unit of 90 capsules, the 1E200C was 3.93 USD the 2E200C 3.64 USD and the 1E800C 3.45 USD The study concluded that due to raw material limitations, the company can produce 12,800 units per year of 90 capsules. It is recommended to adopt the 1E800C encapsulator, which would lower overall production costs by 12.23%, representing 0.48 USD per unit produced, resulting in an additional profit of 6,150.50 USD Over a five-year evaluation period, the benefit-cost ratio was 5.03, the NPV was 922,370.11 and the IRR was 42.09%, indicating that this type of agribusiness in Mexico is both technically and economically feasible.