We describe a forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the prediction of high-impact weather events affecting power utilities, particularly conditions conducive to wildfires. The system was developed for Pacific Gas and Electric Corporation (PG&E) to operationally forecast conditions in Northern and Central California. It was established in 2014 and has been periodically improved. In the current configuration, WRF forecasts are routinely performed multiple times each day on a 2-km grid, and the results are used as input to wildfire fuel moisture, fire probability, and wildfire spread models. Components of the system include a stochastically perturbed ensemble; an annually updated reanalysis covering more than 30 years; and validation against PG&E’s extensive mesonet and other observing networks. We describe the development and validation of the next operational edition. Configurations tested include irrigation triggered by crop growing season and an ensemble-based approach with intelligently sub-selected Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members. The latter approach allows for enhanced uncertainty sampling in WRF forecasts and can greatly improve WRF forecasts when calibrated by observations.

The understanding of weather and climate extremes provides academics, decision makers, international development agencies, nongovernmental organizations and civil society the necessary information for monitoring and giving early warning to prevent or minimize the risks associated with weather related hazards. Different researches were carried out to provide vital information that will further enhance the assessment of vulnerability and its impacts. Lack of proper understanding of weather and climate extremes was realized to be responsible for the huge and devastating losses that could have being averted or minimized over the past decades. Different countries and institutions have put in place a number of ways to increase sensitization and awareness of weather extremes. This became necessary in order to reduce the losses associated with these extremes both on local and regional scales.

Weather forecast has a big impact on the global economy, accurate and timely weather forecast is required by all, it affects many aspects of human livelihood and lifestyle, it also plays a critical role in decision making for severe weather management and for primary and secondary sectors like agriculture, transportation, tourism, and industry as they rely on good weather conditions for production and operations. The erratic and uncertain complex nature of the weather makes traditional weather forecasting tedious and a challenging task, traditional weather forecast involves applying technology and scientific knowledge on numerical weather prediction (NWP), and weather radar to solve complex mathematical equations to obtain forecasts based on current weather conditions. These traditional processes utilize expensive, complex physical and computational power to produce forecasts, which can be inaccurate and have various catastrophic impacts on society. In this research, a machine learning-based weather forecasting model was proposed, the model was implemented using 4 classifier algorithms which include Random Forest classifier, Decision Tree Algorithm, Gaussian Naïve Bayes model, and Gradient Boosting Classifier, these algorithms were trained using a publicly available dataset from Kaggle for the city of Seattle for the period 2012 to 2015. The model’s performance was evaluated; the Gaussian Naive Bayes algorithm proved to be the best performing algorithm with a predictive accuracy of 84.153 %.

Heavy rains result in significant threats to human health and life. Floods and other natural disasters, which have a global impact annually, can be attributed to extended periods of intense precipitation. Accurate rainfall prediction is crucial in nations such as Bangladesh, where agriculture is the predominant field of occupation. The efficiency of machine learning methods is enhanced by the nonlinearity of rainfall, surpassing the effectiveness of other approaches. This study proposes the novel combination of rainfall occurrence prediction, rainfall amount prediction, and daily average temperature prediction. This research implements machine learning techniques and an ensemble-based classifier to predict rainfall occurrence, as well as machine learning regressor models and an ensemble-based regressor to predict the rainfall amount and daily average temperature, using the Bangladesh Weather Dataset. The ensemble classifier demonstrated an accuracy of 83.41% and a recall of 78.17%, exhibiting the best performance in predicting when it will rain, but its precision was the lowest, at 51.16%. The ensemble regression model outperformed the base models, including linear regression, random forest, and support vector regression in rainfall amount prediction, with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.36 and root mean squared error of 0.90. Additionally, this model provided the most precise daily average temperature prediction results with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.42 and root mean squared error of 0.54, highlighting its superiority over the other regression models in forecasting temperature. Ensemble approaches consistently exhibit superior task performance metrics.

Intense rainfall events frequently occur in Brazil, often leading to rapid flooding. Despite their recurrence, there is a notable lack of sub-daily studies in the country. This research aims to assess patterns related to the structure and microphysics of clouds driving intense rainfall in Brazil, resulting in high accumulations within 1 hour. Employing a 40 mm/h threshold and validation criteria, 83 events were selected for study, observed by both single and dual-polarization radars. Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADs) of reflectivity, Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL), and Vertical Integrated Ice (VII) are employed to scrutinize the vertical cloud characteristics in each region. To address limitations arising from the absence of polarimetric coverage in some events, three case studies focusing on polarimetric variables are included. A fourth case study enhances the overall understanding of these events, emphasizing the underexplored nature of short-term intense rainfall studies in Brazil. Results reveal that the generating system significantly influences the rainfall pattern, especially in the Southern, Southeastern, and Central-Western regions. Regional CFADs unveil primary convective columns with 40-50 dBZ reflectivity, extending to approximately 6 km. The microphysical analysis highlights the rapid structural intensification, challenging the event predictability and the issuance of timely specific warnings.

With the increasing pace of global warming, it is important to understand the role of meteorological factors in influenza virus (IV) epidemics. In this study, we investigated the impact of temperature, UV index, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation on IV activity in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during 2010-2018. Both correlation and machine learning analyses revealed that low temperature and low UV indexes were the most predictive meteorological factors for IV epidemics in the Northern European countries. Our in vitro experiments confirmed that low temperature and UV radiation preserved IV infectivity. Associations between these meteorological factors and IV activity could improve surveillance and promote development of accurate predictive models for future influenza outbreaks in Northern Europe.

In the past two decades the world experienced an exceptional number of unprecedented extreme weather events, some causing major human suffering and economic damage, such as the March 2012 heat event, which was called “Meteorological March Madness.” From the beginning of space era a correlation of solar flares with pressure changes in atmosphere within 2–3 days or even less was reported. In this study we wanted to test the possible relation of highly warm weather events in North-East America with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For this reason we compared ground temperatures T_M in Madison, Wisconsin, with energetic particle fluxes P measured by the EPAM instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. In particular, we elaborated case events and the results of a statistical study of the SEP events related with the largest (Dst ≤ −150nT) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-induced geomagnetic storms, between with the years 1997–2015. The most striking result of our statistical analysis is a very significant positive correlation between the highest temperature increase_. ΔT_M and the time duration of the temperature increase ΔT_M (r = 0.8, p <0.001) at “winter times” ( r = 0.5, p , 0.01 for the whole sample of 26 SEP examined events). The time response of T_M to P was found to be in general short (a few days), but in the case of March 2015, during a gradual P8 increase, a cross-correlation test indicated highest c.c. within 1 day (p < 0.05). The March 2012 “meteorological anomaly” was elaborated in the case of South-East Europe, where, beside a period of strong winds and rainfall (6-13.3.2012), intense precipitation in North-East Greece (Alexandroupoli) were found to be correlated with distinct high energy flux enhancements. A rough theoretical interpretation is discussed for the space—atmospheric extreme weather relationship we found. However, much work should be done to achieve early warning of space weather dependent extreme meteorological events. Such future advances in understanding the relationships between space weather and extreme atmospheric events would improve atmospheric models and help people’s safety, health and life.

Deployments of real-world object-detection systems often experience a degradation in performance over time due to concept drift. Systems that leverage thermal cameras are especially susceptible because the respective thermal signatures of objects and their surroundings are highly sensitive to environmental changes. In this study, a conditioning method is investigated. The method aims to guide the training loop of thermal object detection systems by leveraging an auxiliary branch to predict the weather, while directly or indirectly conditioning the baseline detection system. Leveraging such an approach to train detection networks does not necessarily improve the performance of native architectures, however, it can be observed that conditioned networks manage to extract a signal from thermal images that guides the network to detect objects that baseline models miss. As the extracted signal appears to be quite noisy and very challenging to regress accurately, further work is needed to identify an ideal optimization vector.

From December 2021 to May 2022, MeteoSwiss and Meteomatics conducted a proof of concept to demonstrate the capability of Meteodrones to provide data of sufficient quality and reliability on a routine operational basis. Over 6 months, Meteodrones MM-670 were operated automati-cally 8 times per night at Payerne, Switzerland. 864 meteorological profiles were measured and compared to co-located standard measurements including radiosoundings and remote-sensing instruments. To our knowledge, it is the first time that Meteodrone’s atmospheric profiles are evaluated in such an extensive campaign. The paper highlights two case studies that showcase the performance and challenges of measur-ing temperature, humidity, and wind with a Meteodrone. It also focuses on the overall quality of the drone measurements. Throughout the campaign, the availability of Meteodrone measure-ments was 75.7%, with 82.2% of the flights reaching the nominal altitude of 2000m above sea level. To assess the quality of the Meteodrone measurements, the radiosondes were used as a refer-ence, comparing them to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) requirements [1]. The temperature measurements by the Meteodrone met the "breakthrough" target, while the humid-ity and wind profiles met the "threshold" target for high-resolution numerical weather predic-tion. The temperature measurement quality was comparable to that of a microwave radiometer, and the humidity quality was similar to that obtained from a Raman Lidar. However, the wind measurements by a Doppler Lidar were more accurate than the estimation provided by the Me-teodrone. During this campaign, the data quality could be improved and at the end of the campaign, Me-teodrone quality reached the “goal” target for temperature and the “breakthrough” target for humidity. This campaign marks a significant step towards the operational use of automatic drones for me-teorological applications.

Over the last 20 years, begomoviruses have emerged as devastating pathogens, limiting the production of different crops worldwide. Weather conditions increase vector populations, with negative effects on crop production. In this work we evaluated the relationship between the in-cidence of begomovirus and climatic conditions before and during the crop cycle. Soybean and bean fields from the northwest (NW) of Argentina were monitored for 14 years and classified as moderate (≤50%) and severe (> 50%) according to the relative incidence. Two hundred bio-meteorological variables were constructed, summarizing meteorological data in 10-day peri-ods from June to March of each crop year. The studied variables included temperature, precipi-tation, relative humidity, wind (speed and direction), pressure, cloudiness and visibility. For bean, high maximum winter temperatures, low spring humidity and precipitation 10 days before planting correlated with severe incidence. In soybeans, high late winter and pre-planting tem-peratures, and low spring precipitations were found to be good predictors of high incidence of begomovirus presence. The results suggest that temperature and pre-sowing precipitations can be used to predict incidence status [predictive accuracy: 82% (bean) and 75% (soybean)]. Thus, these variables can be incorporated in early warning systems for crop management deci-sion-making to reduce the virus impact on bean and soybean crops.

Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate. There is some previous evidence that weather may influence the incidence of COVID-19 infection. We assessed the role of meteorological factors including temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) considering the concentrations of two air pollutants, inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the incidence of COVID-19 infections in Finland, located in arctic-subarctic climatic zone. Methods: We retrieved daily counts of COVID-19 in Finland from Jan 1 to May 31, 2020, nationwide and separately for all 21 hospital districts across the country. The meteorological and air quality data were from the monitoring stations nearest to the central district hospital. A quasi-Poisson generalized additional model (GAM) was fitted to estimate the associations between district-specific meteorological factors and the daily counts of COVID-19 during the study period. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results. Results: The incidence rate of COVID-19 gradually increased until a peak around April 6 and then decreased. There were no associations between daily temperature and incidence rate of COVID-19. Daily average RH was negatively associated with daily incidence rate of COVID-19 in two hospital districts located inland. No such association was found nationwide. The sensitivity analyses indicate the results are robust. Conclusions: Weather conditions, such as air temperature and relative humidity, may not be important factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence in the arctic and subarctic winter and spring. More evidence is needed on the associations between weather and COVID-19 during different seasons.

We report on ground-based measurements of the atmospheric electric field (Ez= -Potential Gradient (PG)) and current density (Jz) that were conducted at two locations in Israel. One is the Emilio Segre cosmic ray station located on Mt. Hermon (34.45 N, 2020 m AMSL) located in northern Israel near the Syrian-Lebanon border and at the other at the Wise astronomical observatory in the Negev desert highland plateau of southern Israel (31.18 N, 870 m AMSL). We searched for possible effects of strong, short-term solar events on the potential gradient and the vertical current density, as disruption to the Global Electric Circuit are often observed following strong solar events. The first case study (St. Patrick Day, 17 March 2015) was classified as the strongest event of 2015. The second case study (8 Sep 2017) was categorized as the strongest event of 2017 and one of the twenty strongest events on record to date. The results show that the electrical parameters measured at ground level at both stations were not affected during the two massive proton events and the ensuing geomagnetic storms. The magnetospheric shielding in lower latitudes is strong enough to shield against flux of energetic particles from solar events, obscuring any impact that may be noticeable above the local daily variations induced by local meteorological conditions (aerosol concentrations, clouds, high humidity, and wind speed) which were investigated as well.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, machine learning is gradually becoming popular in predictions in all walks of life. In meteorology, It is gradually competing with traditional climate predictions dominated by physical models. This survey aims to consolidate the current understanding of Machine Learning (ML) applications in weather and climate prediction—a field of growing importance across multiple sectors including agriculture and disaster management. Building upon an exhaustive review of more than 20 methods highlighted in existing literature, this survey pinpointed eight techniques that show particular promise for improving the accuracy of both short-term weather and medium-to-long-term climate forecasts. According to the survey, while ML demonstrates significant capabilities in short-term weather prediction, its application in medium-to-long-term climate forecasting remains limited, constrained by factors such as intricate climate variables and data limitations. Current literature tends to focus narrowly on either short-term weather or medium-to-long-term climate forecasting, often neglecting the relationship between the two, as well as general neglect of modelling structure and recent advances. By providing an integrated analysis of models spanning different time scales, this survey aims to bridge these gaps, thereby serving as a meaningful guide for future interdisciplinary research in this rapidly evolving field.

Climate data are important in building a hydrological risk assessment model. The ClimInonda web application enables interactive and dynamic visualizations of different data collected from different weather stations in the study area on a single platform, allowing users to explore and analyze data in an easy way. This can assist decision-makers and stakeholders in understanding the current state of the environment and in identifying areas of flooding risk. Visualizations can include different types of data, such as satellite imagery, weather data, and terrain data, and can be displayed using various techniques, such as heat maps, contour maps, and 3D models by providing easy-to-understand visualizations. The different stations of the Gafsa and Kasserine governorates in the study area are included and other stations of the Algerian territory (Tebessa governorate) are incorporated. This web application also provides the capability to include each user's stations.

Location-specific weather and climate information together with related advisory services are one of the crucial drivers of development in the 21^st century particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there still exist significant gaps in provision of weather and climate information at scales that effectively address the needs of local people for instance; local farmers and pastoralists. This therefore force local people to rely on indigenous knowledge (IK), to observe and forecast weather conditions. This situation does not exclude Uganda, and thus the current study assessed the efficacy of integrating indigenous knowledge systems into modern weather observational instruments in order to boost and act as a backup mechanism for modern weather observational instruments to increase accuracy and wide coverage of weather observations within Uganda. Results indicated that, respondents across the two pilot sites use a combination of plants, animals, insects, and human behaviours, meteorological and astrological indicators to observe and predict local prevailing weather conditions. Majority of the respondents particularly in Masaka district, believed that the use of indigenous knowledge to observe weather and climatic events is very reliable compared to their counterparts in Entebbe Municipality. Therefore, the integration of indigenous knowledge system in scientific weather observations is very vital.

In every economy, Stock markets are part of the key elements the build it up. A few decades ago, there has been a significant change in Ghana stock market returns (GSE). Our study examines the statistical and economic significance of investor sentiment, based on weather conditions/changes, on stock market returns. OLS models, assisted by unit root tests were employed in analyzing the data obtained from the Ghana stock exchange platform from 2000 to 2017. From our literature review, we discovered that investors’ perceptions play a central role in finalizing the direction of stock market returns. Regarding our empirical results, we tested whether weather variations influence the investment decisions of investors; we discovered that temperature and cloud cover significantly influences stock market returns. This is because of mood changes is associated with weather conditions variations. However, sunshine per our regression coefficient shows a statistically insignificant impact on investors’ investment choices. Precipitation to a large extend influence stock market activities further affecting its results negatively as our regression results depicted. We concluded stock brokerage firms, companies, and investors (foreign/local) must incorporate weather changes/effects when strategizing about their investment outcomes.

In a recent paper, we extended previous studies on solar-terrestrial relationships by investigating the origin of the March 2012 heatwave in northeast USA. In the present study we check the possible relationship of solar activity with the early March 2012 bad weather in northeast Thrace, Greece. To this end, we examined data from various remote sensing instrumentation monitoring the Sun (SDO satellite), the Interplanetary Space (ACE satellite), the Earth’s magnetosphere (Earth based measurements, NOAA-19 satellite), the top of the clouds (TERRA and AQUA satellites) and the near ground atmosphere. Our comparative data analysis suggests that: (i) the winter-like weather (rainfall, fast winds, decreased temperature) in Thrace started on 6 March 2012, on the same day as the heatwave starting in USA, (ii) during the March 2012 winter-like event in Thrace (6-15 March), the ACE satellite recorded enhanced fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while SOHO and PAMELA recorded solar protons at very high energies (> 500 MeV), (iii) Thrace experienced particularly intense cyclonic circulation, during periods of magnetic storms on 8 - 10 and 12-13 March, which occurred after the arrival at ACE of two interplanetary shock waves, on March 8 and March 11, respectively, (iv) at the beginning of the two above mentioned periods large atmospheric electric fields were recorded, with values ranging between ~-2000V/m - ~1800V/m on 8 March, (v) the winter-like 8-10 March 2012 weather occurred after the detection of the main SEP event related with a coronal mass ejection released in the interplanetary space as a result of intense solar flare activity observed by SDO on 7 March 2012, (vi) the 8-10 March weather was related with a deep drop of ~630C in the cloud top temperature measured by MODIS/TERRA, which favors strong precipitation. Finally, we analyzed data from the electric power network in Thrace (~410N) and we found, for the first time sudden voltage changes of ~3.5kV in the electric grid in Greece, during the decay phase of the March 2012 superstorm. We discuss the winter-like March 2012 event in Thrace in terms of solar cosmic ray influence on the low troposphere mediated by positive NAO. Finally, we infer that the novel finding of the geomagnetic effects on the electric power grid in Thrace may open a new window into space weather applications research.

This study investigates the impact of environmental factors on intradialytic blood pressure in hemodialysis patients, using a four-year retrospective analysis. Employing a Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model, we examined the associations between clinical variables, meteorological conditions (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation), and blood pressure outcomes, including systolic blood pressure (SBP) and mean arterial pressure. Our results reveal that higher temperatures, increased humidity, and stronger wind speeds are significantly associated with lower SBP and mean arterial pressure. In contrast, higher daily precipitation correlates with elevated mean arterial pressure. Among clinical factors, erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) dosage shows a positive association with both SBP and mean arterial pressure while a history of intradialytic hypotension and increased interdialytic weight gain are negatively correlated. Additionally, serum potassium levels were inversely related to SBP and mean arterial pressure. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating environmental variables into predictive models for intradialytic blood pressure management. We propose tailored interventions, such as weather-adapted fluid management strategies, personalized treatment plans, and patient education, to mitigate potential adverse effects. This study provides a foundation for enhancing patient-centered care and improving the quality of life for hemodialysis patients amid global climate changes.

Weather conditions appear to be undergoing significant deviations from the long-term average, marked by pronounced extremes of heat, prolonged droughts, and heightened rainfall occurring with greater frequency worldwide. Consequently, new patterns of extreme weather are emerging, like the unusual and unorganized tropical cyclone called "Yaku", that influenced the extreme amount of rain that between March 6th to 10th, 2023 hits more than 1000 districts in the northwestern of Peru. One of the district more affected was Íllimo, in the Lambayeque province, due to the river that pass through the city, so called “La Leche”, after the continuous and intensive rain overflow devastating his surrounding areas and causing victims and damage. This emergency provided and excellent opportunity to apply, on the aforementioned areas, the “change detection” technique, that allows identifying areas of change between data obtained before and after of emergency events. In this research, optical data (Sentinel-2, Landsat, MODIS Terra and Aqua, and PeruSAT-1) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data (Sentinel-1 and COSMO SkyMed) were analyzed. A benchmark could also be carried out between open-source and commercial spatial analysis tools. The results indicated that in an extreme rain event the optical data are obscured by clouds and do not allow their use, while SAR data overcome clouds, and can be used for this research. The benchmark indicated that using the Jaccard index score, the Sentinel-1A set showed a 33% of correlation, while COSMO SkyMed demonstrated a 38% of match between the maps. The results obtained could be used to sensitize the population and develop a better management of future emergency events (floods) in different areas of Peru.

The present study analyzes students' weather-related hazard and risk literacy in Greece, a climate change hotspot region in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we examine the students' level in two core literacy variables, namely knowledge and competency. In addition, we explore how knowledge, attitudes and socio-demographic variables influence students' competencies related to weather and climate risk assessment and adaptability. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on 474 students aged 12-16. The regression results showed that knowledge significantly affects the level of competency. Self-belief and confidence in science were the most influential among the attitudinal variables. We conclude by discussing educational and behavioural issues highlighted as essential to address with targeted policies and measures in formal education complemented by non-formal educational activities.

Kyrgyzstan, a landlocked nation in Central Asia, is characterized by its rugged mountainous terrain, which covers approximately 90% of its land area. This unique geography poses specific challenges related to climate vulnerability. To address these challenges, we propose a comprehensive approach that involves gathering meteorological data and making it accessible to decision-makers. By leveraging LoRaWAN communication technology, which efficiently transmits sparse and low-speed data over long distances while minimizing power consumption, we can enhance climate resilience. The Internet Society Kyrgyz Chapter, in collaboration with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) and the Central Asia Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG), has initiated the installation of meteorological sensors and disaster mitigation devices, including river water level sensors, terrain moisture sensors, and tilt detectors. These sensors collect critical data, which is stored within the country on an ad hoc server. Stakeholders can access this data according to their specific requirements. This paper outlines the criteria for selecting the deployed equipment and provides details on the installation process at pilot sites, along with the challenges encountered during project execution.

High-density polyethylene (HDPE) waste poses a significant environmental challenge due to its non-biodegradable nature and the vast quantities generated annually. However, conventional recycling methods are energy-intensive and often yield low-quality products. Herein, HDPE waste is upcycled into anti-aging superhydrophobic thin films suitable for outdoor applications. A two-layer spin-casting method combined with heating-induced crosslinking is utilized to produce an exceptionally rough superhydrophobic surface, featuring a root mean square (RMS) roughness of 50 nm, an average crest height of 222 nm, an average trough depth of –264 nm, and a contact angle (CA) of 148°. To assess durability, weathering tests were conducted, revealing the films' susceptibility to degradation under harsh conditions. The films' resistance to environmental factors is improved by incorporating a UV absorber, maintaining their hydrophobic properties and mechanical strength. Our research demonstrates a sustainable method for upcycling waste into high-performance, weather-resistant superhydrophobic films.

Three facts characterize the hailstorm of 30 August 2022 in the Catalan village of La Bisbal d'Empordà and its surroundings: first, the most dramatic, the death of a child hit by a hailstone. Second, the damage to most of the roofs and cars in the town. Finally, because of the record of hail size (more than 10 cm) in Catalonia in at least the last 30 years. This research focuses on the radar field comparison and the observations provided by an electronic survey of the study area. The results reveal that weather radar sub-estimated the hail size because of different factors. On the opposite, some reporters provided an inaccurate hour. The difference of three months between the hail event and the electronic survey is the probable cause of this mistake in the time estimation. However, the survey delay helped to avoid answers with larger hail sizes than those provided by the official spotters.

We identified six natural "control knobs" for global weather and climate, which clearly regulate, increase and decrease global temperatures, thus performing a true temperature "control" on Earth. Identified control knobs act as Earth's orbital forcing. We present a detailed Earth orbital model, from where the analysis proceeds. Based on our orbital model, we compare meteorological data from all over the globe, in order to detect orbital forcing fingerprints. Ninety temperature graphs and bar charts demonstrate the results. Empirical meteorological data covers the Pacific ocean, the Atlantic ocean, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent, and presents land based meteorological measurements from all continents for the year 2020, as well as multi-decadal data from global daily temperature datasets. A supplementary file provides another 100 additional graphs of weather data and temperature charts. The global orbital "temperature control" is clearly observable in all graphs and charts. Until today, orbital forcing has not been integrated in weather models and CMIP6 climate models.It is concluded that the proposed new orbital forcing should be part of weather and climate forecasting models.

Environmental effects and climate change are lately representing an increasing strain of the coastal areas which topography strongly depends on these conditions. However, the processes by which weather and environmental phenomena influence the highly variable beach morphology are still unknown. A continuous monitoring of the beach environment is necessary to implement protection strategies. This paper presents the results of an innovative study performed on a coastal area using satellite remote sensing data with the aim of understanding how environmental phenomena affect beaches. Two-years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images are used over a test area in Noordwijk, the Netherlands. At the same time as the SAR acquisitions, information on tidal and weather conditions are collected and integrated from nearby meteorological stations. Dedicated codes are implemented in order to understand the relationship between the SAR amplitude and the considered phenomena: wind, precipitation, tidal conditions. Surface roughness is taken into account. The results indicate a strong correlation between the amplitude and the wind. No particular correlation or trend could be noticed in the relation with the precipitation. The analysis of the amplitude also shows a decreasing trend moving from the dry area of the beach towards the sea and the correlation coefficient between the amplitude and the tide level gets negative with the increase of the water content.

Free Floating Car Sharing (FFCS) services are a flexible alternative to car ownership. These transportation services show highly dynamic usage both over different hours of the day, and across different city areas. In this work, we study the problem of predicting FFCS demand patterns -- a problem of great importance to an adequate provisioning of the service. We tackle both the prediction of the demand i) over time and ii) over space. We rely on months of real FFCS rides in Vancouver, which constitute our ground truth. We enrich this data with detailed socio-demographic information obtained from large open-data repositories to predict usage patterns. Our aim is to offer a thorough comparison of several machine learning algorithms in terms of accuracy and easiness of training, and to assess the effectiveness of current state-of-art approaches to address the prediction problem. Our results show that it is possible to predict the future usage with relative errors down to 10%, and the spatial prediction can be estimated with relative errors of about 40%. Our study also uncovered the socio-demographic features that most strongly correlate with FFCS usage, providing interesting insights for providers opening service in new regions.

Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-induced climate change, particularly occurring since the mid-20th century has been considerably affecting short-term weather conditions, such as increasing weather variability, and incidence of extreme weather-related events. Milk production is sensitive to such changes. In this study, we use spatial panel econometric models, Spatial Error Model (SEM) and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), with a panel dataset at the state-level varying over seasons, to estimate the relationship between weather indicators and milk productivity, in an effort to reduce the bias of omitted climatic variables that can be time-varying and spatially correlated and cannot be directly captured by conventional panel data models. We find an inverse U-shaped effect of summer heat stress on milk production per cow (MPC), indicating that milk production reacts positively to a low-level increase in summer heat stress, and then MPC declines as heat stress continues increasing beyond a threshold value of 72. Additionally, fall precipitation exhibits an inverse U-shaped effect on MPC, showing that milk yield increases at a decreasing rate until fall precipitation rises to 14 inches and then over that threshold milk yield declines at an increasing rate. We also find that, relative to conventional panel data models, spatial panel econometric models could improve prediction performance by leading to smaller in-sample and out-sample root mean squared errors. Our study contributes to the literature by exploring the feasibility of promising spatial panel models and resulting in estimating weather influences on milk productivity with high model predicting performance.

The traditional societies evolved locally with the realms of time in their calendars while modern Gregorian based on the solar movement and some others use lunar or the combination with solar. Unveiling some information from the old manuscripts to gain the realm of traditional Batak people since the ancient times in settlements surrounding the tropical Lake Toba, North Sumatera, Indonesia, revival of cosmos is delivered. Uniquely the ancient Batak count days in a month by observing lunar phase and the period of year is by looking the observable Constellation of Orion & Scorpius within the new phase of the moon. Thus there are years with 12 months and some leap years with 13 months, and we propose to categorize the calendar to be lunar-star, relative to other widely analyzed calendars. In the realization of the use of the cosmogram, we cross the period of the leap year to the examination of contemporary data on agriculture event, i.e.: crop failure, as well as some profiles on weather. The revival of the Batak Calendar opens further interesting conjectures based on the rich cultural and astronomical knowledge embedded in tradition with deep connection between celestial observations and timekeeping.

The ocean’s mixed layer depth (MLD) plays an important role in understanding climate dynamics, especially during extreme weather occurrences like hurricanes. This study investigates the effects of Hurricane Katrina (2005) on the MLD in the Gulf of Mexico, using the Delft3D modeling system. By integrating hydrodynamics and wave dynamics modules, we simulate the ocean’s response to extreme weather, focusing on temperature, salinity and MLD variations. Our analysis reveals significant cooling and mixing induced by Katrina, resulting in spatial and temporal fluctuations in temperature (~± 4°C) and salinity (~± 2.5 ppt). The MLD is estimated using a simple threshold method, revealing a substantial deepening to ~120 m on August 29th-30th during Hurricane Katrina in the middle of northern Gulf of Mexico, compared to an average MLD of ~20-40 m during pre-storm conditions. It took about 18-days to recover to ~84% of the pre-storm level after Katrina. Compared to the stand-alone FLOW model, the coupled FLOW+WAVE model yields a deeper MLD of ~5%. The MLD recovery and wave effect on the MLD provide insights from various scientific, environmental and operational perspectives, offering a valuable basis for ocean management, planning and applications, particularly during extreme weather events.

Solar flares are characterized by sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun’s surface, and caused by the changes in magnetic field states in solar active regions. Earth and its surrounding space environment can suffer from various negative impacts caused by solar flares ranging from electronic communication disruption to radiation exposure-based health risks to the astronauts. In this paper, we address the solar flare prediction problem from magnetic field parameter-based multivariate time series (MVTS) data using multiple state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers that include MINImally RandOm Convolutional KErnel Transform (MINIROCKET), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Canonical Interval Forest (CIF), Multiple Representations SEQuence Learner (Mr-SEQL), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based deep learning model. Our experiment is conducted on the on the Space Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) benchmark data set, which is a partitioned collection of MVTS data of active region magnetic field parameters spanning over 9 years of operation of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The MVTS instances of the SWAN-SF dataset are labeled by GOES X-ray flux-based flare class labels, and attributed to extreme class imbalance because of the rarity of the major flaring events (e.g., X and M). As a performance validation metric in this class-imbalanced dataset, we used the true skill statistic (TSS) score. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the MVTS learning algorithm MINIROCKET, which outperformed the aforementioned classifiers without the need for essential data preprocessing steps such as normalization, statistical summarization, and class imbalance handling heuristics.

Insurance serves as a mechanism to effectively manage and transfer revenue-related risks. We conducted a study to explore the potential financial advantages of index insurance, which protects agricultural producers, specifically sugarcane, against excessive rainfall. Creation of the index involved utilizing generalized additive regression models, allowing for consideration of non-linear effects and quantile generalized additive regression to evaluate relationships with lower quantiles, such as low yield events. To quantify the financial benefits for farmers, should they opt for excessive rainfall index insurance, we employed efficiency analysis based on metrics such as Conditional Tail Expectation, Certainty Equivalence of Revenue, and Mean Root Square Loss. The results of the regression model demonstrate its accuracy in predicting sugar cane yields, with a split testing R2 of 0.691. Additionally, our study suggests that this type of insurance could also apply to sugarcane farmers and other crop producers in regions where extreme rainfall threatens the financial sustainability of agricultural production.

Super Typhoon Saola came very close to Hong Kong on 1 and 2 September 2023, necessitating the issuance of No. 10 hurricane signal, the highest tropical cyclone warning signal, in Hong Kong. While there were widespread damages in Hong Kong, no people were killed in the event with effective early warning. It is rare that a super typhoon came very close to Hong Kong and this paper is the first part in the series of the documentation of Saola to summarize the interesting observations of Saola near Hong Kong for future reference by weather forecasters, including sur-face observations, upper air observations, microburst alert from weather radars, and turbulence intensity based on spectral width measurement of radars.

In the overall context of national eco-conservation civilization development and considering the hills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, the local forest coverage rate is gradually on the rise, and so is the risk of forest fire. Every year, satellites can monitor and detect hundreds of fire spots on average. In recent years, serious fire took place for several times, leading to loss of life and personal injury. Then the fire-fighting work consumed huge amount of labor and material resources, exerting negative social impacts in many ways. Thus, the analysis of fire climate background in this region and the forecast based on fire weather indexes constitute an important part in the forest fire risk management. Located in the tropical monsoon climate zone, four provinces and municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shanxi are similar in terms of climate characteristics. This study tries to analyze the characteristics about fire spots under satellite monitoring, fire climate and fire weather index. The probability distribution analysis of weather index about fire spots in history and key meteorological observation stations as well as the weather index analysis in the early stage of typical fire indicate that the Fine Fuel Moisture Content (FFMC) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI) in the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system is applicable to the fire risk analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region, which can also effectively indicate the fuel moisture and spread conditions. As regards to the average level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi, when the FFMC is smaller than 93.5 and the ISI is also smaller than 5.0, there is a low risk of fire; when the FFMC is above 94 and the ISI is larger than 10.0, there is a high risk of fire; and the fire risk will be extremely high if the FFMC is over 96 and the ISI is above 13.0. In the practical fire-fighting management, the fire danger class can be released in reference to the ISI classes and threshold values of key meteorological observation stations under analysis provided by this study.

Vehicle safety promises to be one of the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) biggest benefits. Higher levels of automation remove the human driver from the chain of events that can lead to a crash. Sensors play an influential role in vehicle driving as well as in ADAS by helping the driver to watch the vehicle’s surroundings for safe driving. Thus, the driving load is drastically reduced from steering as well as accelerating and braking for long-term driving. The baseline for the development of future intelligent vehicles relies even more on the fusion of data from surrounding sensors such as Camera, Lidar and Radar. These sensors not only need to perceive in clear weather but also need to detect accurately adverse weather and illumination conditions. Otherwise, a small error could have an incalculable impact on ADAS. As most of the current study is based on indoor or static testing. In order to solve this problem, this paper designs a series of dynamic test cases with the help of outdoor rain and intelligent lightning simulation facilities to make the sensor application scenarios more realistic. As a result, the effect of rainfall and illumination on sensor perception performance is investigated. As speculated, the performance of all automotive sensors is degraded by adverse environmental factors, but their behaviour is not identical. Future work on sensor model development and sensor information fusion should therefore take this into account.

This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), and October-December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040-2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070-2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985-2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events, represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p-90p) show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region - which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources.

The Compact Midwave Imaging System (CMIS) is a wide field of view, multi-angle, multi-spectral pushframe imager that relies on the forward motion of the satellite to create a two-dimensional (2D) image swath. An airborne demonstration of CMIS was successfully completed in January-February 2021 on the NASA Langley Research Center Gulfstream III. The primary objective of the four-flight campaign was to demonstrate the capability of this unique instrument to perform stereo observations of clouds and other particulates (e.g. smoke) in the atmosphere. It is shown that the midwave infrared (MWIR) spectral bands of CMIS provide a unique 24/7 capability with high resolution for accurate stereo sensing. The instrument relies on new focal plane array (FPA) technology, which provides excellent sensitivity at much warmer detector temperatures than traditional technologies. This capability enabled a compact, low-cost design that can provide atmospheric motion vectors and cloud heights to support requirements for atmospheric winds in the 2017-2027 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Applications include day/night observations of the planetary boundary layer, severe weather, and wildfires. A comparison with current space-based earth science instruments demonstrates that the SWIR/MWIR multi-spectral capability of CMIS is competitive with larger, more expensive instrumentation. Imagery obtained over a controlled burn and operating nuclear power plant demonstrated the sensitivity of the instrument to temperature variations. The system relies on a mature stereoscopic imaging technique applied to the same scene from two independent platforms to unambiguously retrieve atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) with accurate height assignment. This capability has been successfully applied to geostationary and low-earth orbit satellites to achieve excellent accuracy. When applied to a ground-point validation case, the accuracy for the CMIS aircraft observations was 20 m and 0.3 m/s for cloud heights and motion vectors, respectively. This result was confirmed by a detailed error analysis with analytical and covariance models. The results for CMIS cases with underflights of Aeolus, CALIPSO and Aqua provided a good validation of expected accuracies. The paper also showed the feasibility of accommodating CMIS on CubeSats to enable multiple instruments to be flown in a leader-follower mode.

Weather surveillance radars routinely detect smoke of various origin. Of particular significance to the meteorological community are wildfires in forests and/or prairies. For example, one responsibility of the National Weather Service in the USA is to forecast fire outlooks as well as to monitor wild fire evolution. Polarimetric variables have enabled relatively easy recognitions of smoke plumes in data fields of weather radars. Presented here are the fields of these variables from smoke plumes caused by grass fire, brush fire, and forest fire. Histograms of polarimetric data from plumes contrast these three cases. Most of the data are from the polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D aka Nexrad, 10 cm wavelength) hence the wavelength does not influence these comparisons. Nevertheless, in one case simultaneous observations of a plume by the operational Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR, 5 cm wavelength) and a WSR-88D is used to infer backscattering characteristic and hence sizes of dominant contributors to the returns. In addition, comparisons with observations by other investigators of plumes from urban area but at a 5 cm wavelength are made. To interpret some measurements Computational Electromagnetics (CEM) tools are applied.

Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.

Accidents involving heavy road vehicles are often destructive, causing operational losses, human casualties, infrastructure losses, and negative environmental impacts. The risk is especially high in wintertime traffic. Eureka Xecs SafeTrucks-project (Heavy traffic safety improvements by advanced dynamics and road weather services) develops real-time vehicle-specific weather and safety services tailored to each vehicle, based on the vehicle’s own sensor observations combined with data from the service systems and an analysis of the vehicle's own dynamics. The services are also analyzed by Digital Twin modelling, in order evaluate and refine them in a controlled environment. The pilot services are ultimately tested in pilot system within operative heavy traffic. This paper presents the concept and architecture of the platform, with preliminary results of pilot services operation and system evaluation.

The spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards in Mexico are analyzed. To this end, using census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 and a statistical method, different indices were computed, and with a GIS-based approach, patterns of social vulnerability are examined. In addition, a risk assessment test for severe weather (thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes) is made out. The results show different common social vulnerability driving factors in the three analyzed years, with root causes that have not been addressed since the beginning of the century. Likewise, a wider gap between Mexico's most and least vulnerable populations is identified. The changes in spatial patterns respond to different historical situations, such as migration, urbanization, and increased population. Also, poverty, ethnicity, and marginalization factors located in very particular regions in Mexico have remained relatively the same in the last few years. These situations have strongly influenced the spatial-temporal distribution of vulnerability in the country. The role of social vulnerability in the disaster risk to extreme events such as thunderstorms, hailstorms, and tornadoes in Mexico is fundamental to understanding changes in disaster distribution at the national level, and it is the first step to generating improvements in integrated risk management.

Measuring the Sun’s magnetic field is a key component of monitoring solar activity and forecasting space weather. The main goal of the research presented in this paper is to investigate the possibility of reducing the dimensions and weight of a solar magnetograph while preserving its optical quality. This article presents a range of different designs, along with their advantages and disadvantages, and an analysis of the optical performance of each. All proposed designs are based on the Magneto Optical Filter (MOF) technique. As a result of the design study, a miniaturised solar magnetograph is proposed with an ultra-compact layout. The dimensions are 345mm × 54mm × 54mm and the optical quality is almost at the diffraction limit. The design has an entrance focal-ratio of F/17.65, with a plate scale of 83.58 arcsec/mm at the telescope image focal plane and produces a magnification of 0.79. The field of view is 1920 arcsec diameter, equivalent to ±0.27degrees, sufficient to cover the entire solar disk.

Rice cultivation serves as a significant anthropogenic source of methane (CH4), a primary greenhouse gas, and nitrous oxide (N2O), a secondary greenhouse gas. Although N2O emissions remain relatively small compared to CH4 emissions, they are remarkably affected by nitrogen-fertilized soil conditions during rice cultivation. To date, investigations are very limited concerning N2O emissions from rice cultivation in relation to environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, and soil properties. In this case study, we investigated the characteristics of N2O emissions in the central region of South Korea, where a single rice cropping cycle occurs annually over a span of three years, from May 2020 to May 2023. We investigated the impact of variations in temperature and soil moisture on N2O emissions during rice cultivation. In this context, we attempted to discover the complex dynamics of N2O emissions by comparing longer fallow periods with the rice cultivation periods and extended non-dry periods with irrigated periods. We observed that extremely high N₂O flux events encountered during the fallow period appeared to have a substantial impact on the yearly cumulative N₂O emissions, surpassing the impact of cumulative N₂O emissions during the rice cultivation period. We found that high N₂O flux events arose not only from artificial nitrogen inputs but also due to temperature and soil moisture variations influenced by weather conditions. We concluded that assessing N₂O emissions solely based on the rice cultivation period would underestimate annual emissions. To prevent underestimation of N₂O emissions, continual gas collection throughout a year covering both rice cultivation and fallow phases is required in align with monitoring of varying temperature and soil moisture conditions. Based on our findings, we recommend that at least a three whole year evaluation period is needed to ensure estimation accuracy of N₂O emissions under varying nitrogen fertilization rates. Also, the findings from this study would help prepare a further revision or refinement of N2O emission factor from rice cultivation in the national greenhouse gas inventories defined by the inter-governmental panel on climate change (IPCC).

With advances in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs), more attention has been paid to the effects caused by adverse weather conditions on them. It is well known that the performance of self-driving vehicles is reduced when they are exposed to stressors that impair visibility or generate water or snow accumulation on sensor surfaces. This paper proposes a model to quantify weather precipitation, such as rain and snow, perceived by moving vehicles based on outdoor data. The modelling covers a wide range of parameters, such as varying wind direction and realistic particle size distributions. The model allows the calculation of precipitation intensity on inclined surfaces of different orientations and on a circular driving path. The modelling results were partially validated against direct measurements carried out by a test vehicle. The model outputs showed strong correlation with the experimental data for both rain and snow. Mitigation strategies for heavy precipitation on vehicles can be developed and correlations between precipitation rate and accumulation level can be traced using the presented analytical model. Dimensional Analysis of the problem has highlighted the critical parameters that can help the design of future experiments. The obtained results highlight the importance of the angle of the sensing surface on the perceived precipitation level. The proposed model is used to analyze optimal orientations for minimization of the precipitation flux, which can help to determine the positioning of sensors on the surface of autonomous vehicles.

In foggy weather scenarios, the scattering and absorption of light by water droplets and particulate matter cause object features in images to become blurred or lost, presenting a significant challenge for target detection in autonomous driving vehicles. To tackle this problem, this study proposes a foggy weather detection method, YOLOv5s-Fog, based on the YOLOv5s framework. The model enhances the feature extraction and expression capabilities of YOLOv5s by introducing a novel target detection layer, SwinFocus. Additionally, this research incorporates decoupled head into the model and replaces the conventional non-maximum suppression method with Soft-NMS. Experimental results demonstrate that these improvements effectively enhance the detection performance for blurry objects and small targets in foggy weather conditions. Compared to the baseline model YOLOv5s, YOLOv5s-Fog achieves a 5.4% increase in mAP on the RTTS dataset, reaching 73.4%. This method provides technical support for rapid and accurate target detection in adverse weather conditions, such as foggy weather, for autonomous driving vehicles.

In the past years, our knowledge of coastal environments has been enriched by remotely sensed data. However, to successfully extract information from a combination of different sensors systems, it should be understood how these interact with the common coastal environment. In this research we co-analyze two sensor systems: Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and satellite based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). TLS shows large potential for examining coastal processes thanks to the possibility to retrieve repeated, accurate and dense topographic information in a rapid and non-invasive manner. However, TLS presents some limits due to its high economic costs and limited field of view. SAR systems are among the most used active remote sensor system for Earth Observation. Despite their relatively low resolution, SAR systems provide the ability to monitor and map coastal areas with complete, repeated and frequent coverage, penetrating through clouds and providing all weather monitoring. Moreover, Sentinel-1 SAR images are freely available. The availability of a permanently installed TLS system (PLS, Permanent Laser Scanner) allows us, to extensively compare Sentinel-1 SAR data and topographic laser scans during different conditions on a sandy beach. PLS data are compared with simultaneous Sentinel-1 SAR images in order to investigate the combined use of PLS and SAR in coastal environments. The purpose of this comparison is the investigation of a possible relation between PLS and SAR data: knowing their relation, SAR dataset could be correlated to beaches characteristics. Meteorological and surface roughness have also been taken into consideration in the evaluation of the correlation between PLS and SAR data. The permanently installed laser scanner for the present study is located in Noordwijk (the Netherlands). A generally positive but low correlation exists between the two variables. When considering weather phenomena, their correlation increases and shows a dependence on wind directions and speed. The correlation with the surface roughness, evaluated in terms of root-mean squared height, also depends on specific wind speed and directions.

There is consensus that climate variability and change is impacting food security in Eastern Africa, and that conventional extension approaches, based on top-down model of information dissemination and technology transfer, are too inadequate to help smallholder farmers tackle increasingly complex agro-climatic adversities. Innovative service delivery options exist but are mostly operated in silos with little effort to explore and blend them. There are efforts to develop a blended Climate-Resilient Farmers Field School methodology to address the gaps, with objective to improve participants’ knowledge, skills and attitude to apply the blended approach and to sensitize actors on what needs to be advocated at the policy level. Some 661 local trainers/facilitators (ToT/ToFs), 32% of them women and 54% youth, were trained across Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, with additional 76 Master Trainers (MToTs) trained to backstop the ToT/ToFs. Through the implementation, the process reached 36 agribusinesses covering some 237,250 smallholder farmers trained across Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda on CSA technologies, practices, and innovations by the end of 2020. The blended approach offers lessons to transform extension to help farmers improve food security and resilience. Preliminary findings indicate that the process is rapidly shaping individual adaptive behavior and group adaptive thinking. Lessons also show a strong need for agronomists to work more closely with agro-meteorologists to ensure that farmers are properly guided to participate appropriately in the co-generation and application of climate information and agro-weather advisories, which they can interpret easily and utilize for their agricultural production purposes. Experience from this initiative can be leveraged to develop scalable participatory extension and training models

Silicone RTV-based engineering rubber composite products have been widely used for several applications in various fields as a major component such as structure, automotive, and medical. In its application, the rubber composite product is placed in an open area that is directly exposed to sunlight and rain. It has a significant negative impact on changes in chemical and rheological properties, making the product life of rubber composite products shorter. Therefore, in this study, changes in the chemical and rheological properties of both isotropic and anisotropic magnetorheological elastomer (MRE) treated with accelerated weathering were studied compared to untreated specimens with specimens that had been treated. MRE specimens with 40% by weight CIP were prepared with no current excitation and another sample were made under 1.5 T of magnetic flux density. Each specimen was treated in an accelerated weathering machine Q-Sun Xe-1 Xenon Test Chamber with a UV light exposure cycle for 102 minutes and 18 minutes of UV light combined with water spray for 24 hours followed by a condensation cycle of 4 hours in a dark period. Material characterization was carried out using FTIR and Rheometer to determine the changes in chemical and rheological properties. The morphological analysis results showed that the surface was rough and more cavities occurred after being given weather treatment. Rheometer test results showed a decrease in storage modulus in each MRE specimen that had been treated compared to untreated MRE specimens. Meanwhile, FTIR testing showed a change in wave peak between untreated and treated MRE specimens.

An all-weather land surface temperature (LST) product derived at the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) is presented. The product is based on clear-sky LST retrieved from MSG/SEVIRI infrared (IR) measurements, complemented by LST estimated with a land surface energy balance (EB) model to fill gaps caused by clouds. The EB model solves the surface energy balance mostly using products derived at LSA-SAF. The new product is compared with in situ observations made at 3 dedicated validation stations, and with a Microwave (MW) based LST product derived from AMSR-E measurements. The validation against in-situ LST indicates an accuracy of the new product between -0.8 K and 1.1 K and a precision between 1.0 K and 1.4 K, generally showing a better performance than the MW product. The EB model shows some limitations concerning the representation of the LST diurnal cycle. Comparisons with MW LST generally show higher LST of the new product over desert areas, and lower LST over tropical regions. Several other imagers provide suitable measurements for implementing the proposed methodology, which offers the potential to obtain a global, nearly gap-free LST product.

We examine the role of zonal Ekman transport along the coast of Senegal on 30 August, 2015 when the tropical disturbance associated with Tropical Cyclone Fred was located to the west of Senegal causing considerable coastal damage to coastal areas south of Dakar, Senegal. Ten-meter winds from three Weather Research and Forecast model simulations were used to estimate zonal Ekman transport, with the largest values found during the 30 August. The simulations are in agreement with limited coastal observations showing increasing southerly wind speeds during 30 August but are overestimated relative to the 3 coastal stations. The strong meridional winds translate into increased zonal Ekman transport to the coast of Senegal on 30 August. The use of a coupled ocean model will improve the estimates of Ekman transport along the Guinea-Senegalese coast. The observed damage suggests that artificial and natural barriers (mangroves) should be strengthened to protect coastal communities in Senegal.

Texas ranks first in number of natural hazard fatalities in the United States (U.S.). Based on data culled from the National Climatic Data Center databases from 1959 to 2016, the number of hydrometeorological fatalities in Texas have increased over the 58-year study period, but the per capita fatalities have significantly decreased. Spatial review found that flooding is the predominant hydrometeorological disaster in a majority of the Texas counties located in “Flash Flood Alley” and accounts for 43% of all hydrometeorological fatalities in the state. Flooding fatalities are highest on “Transportation Routes” followed by heat fatalities in “Permanent Residences”. Seasonal and monthly stratification identifies Spring and Summer as the deadliest seasons, with the month of May registering the highest number of total fatalities dominated by flooding and tornado fatalities. Demographic trends of hydrometeorological disaster fatalities indicated that approximately twice as many male fatalities occurred during the study period than female fatalities, but with decreasing gender disparity over time. Adults are the highest fatality risk group overall, children most at risk to die in flooding, and the elderly at greatest risk of heat-related death.

Agro-meteorology is the relationship between agriculture and weather. All farm activities are affected by weather. Therefore it is always necessary to monitor the weather as a forecast. The aim of the research was to monitor the weather and rainwater samples obtained at Federal College of Agriculture, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria. For the eight months periods, results were obtained. The mean results for the physicochemical parameters were: TDS (12.25 mg/L), temp (28.13 ^oC), pH (6.63), EC (24.25µS/cm), Free CO₂ (24.38mg/L), nitrate (0.16mg/L), phosphate (0.17mg/L), sulphate (0.18mg/L). The rainwater was colorless and had no odor. The mean meteorological data: The prevailing wind directions were from SE, mostly in May, June, July and November and NE. The dry and wet temperatures were 22-29 ^oC and 20-26 ^oC respectively. The maximum value was observed in the month of July. The correlation matrix showed that there were many strong correlations in the physicochemical properties. The months of May, June and July had the highest wind speed. In these months there would be a need to use a windbreaker around the crops planted to avoid soil erosion and damaging of plants.

Agroclimatic indicators help convey information about climate variability and change in terms that are meaningful to the agricultural sector. This study evaluated climate projections for Angola, particularly for provinces with higher agrarian potential. To this end, a set of 15 predefined agroclimatic indicators in 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, under the anthropogenic forcing scenarios RCP4 and RCP8, were compared with the historical period 1981–2010 as a baseline. Data were extracted within the geographic window of longitudes 10–24°E and latitudes 4–18°S and from five climate model chain experiments, namely MIROC-ESM-CHEM, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM1-M. The averages of the set of agroclimatic indicators, as well as their differences between historical and future periods, are discussed concerning the likely implications for agriculture in Angola. The results show significant increases in average daily maximum (2–3°C) and minimum (2–3°C) temperatures in Angola. For the future, a generally significant reduction in precipitation (and its associated indicators) is expected in all areas of Angola, with the southwest region (Namibe and Huíla) recording the most pronounced decrease, up to 300 mm, while the maximum number of consecutive dry days will increase across the country and especially in the northeast of the country. A widespread increase in temperatures is expected, which could lead to hot and dry conditions in Angola that could lead to more frequent, intense and prolonged extreme events, such as tropical nights, maximum number of consecutive summer days, warm and wet days and Warm spell duration index periods. These changes can seriously affect agriculture, water resources and ecosystems in Angola, thus requiring adaptation strategies to reduce risks and adverse effects, while ensuring the sustainability of the country's natural resources and guaranteeing its food security.

These findings have several policy implications, emphasizing the need for enhanced data collection, climate-resilient agricultural policies, and continued investment in research. The study contributes to the understanding of climate-smart agriculture, providing insights for informed decision-making towards resilient and productive agricultural systems in the face of climate change challenges.

The article addresses the complex climatic situation faced by the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, which began on April 27, 2024, and extended for weeks. This unprecedented extreme weather event is yet another chapter in the global climate crisis. Initially, this rainfall seemed typical for the season. However, it quickly escalated into one of the worst climatic catastrophes in Brazil's history. In recent years, there has been a global increase in extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, flooding, landslides, cyclones, and heatwaves, highlighting the ongoing climate crisis as one of the most serious threats we face today. In light of this, our study aims to elucidate the impact of climate change by examining one of Brazil's most severe climate disasters. We investigate the complex situation in Rio Grande do Sul, analyzing the ongoing climate crisis and projecting what can be expected in the near future.

With the emergence of autonomous functions in road vehicles, there has been an increased use of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems comprising various sensors to perform automated tasks. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is one of the most important types of optical sensor that detects the positions of obstacles, representing them as clusters of points in 3-dimensional space. LiDAR performance degrades significantly when driving in rain as raindrops adhere to the outer surface of the sensor assembly. The performance degradation behaviors include missing points and reduced reflectivity of the points. It was found that the extent of degradations is highly dependent on the interface material properties, which subsequently affects the shapes of the adherent droplets, causing different perturbations to the optical rays. A fundamental investigation is performed on the protective polycarbonate cover of the LiDAR assembly coated with four classes of materials – hydrophilic, almost-hydrophobic, hydrophobic, and superhydrophobic. Water droplets are controllably dispensed onto the cover to quantify the signal alteration due to each droplet of various sizes and shapes. To further understand the effects of droplet motion on LiDAR signals, sliding droplet conditions are simulated using numerical analysis and validated with physical optical tests using a 905 nm laser source and receiver to mimic the LiDAR detection mechanism. Comprehensive explanations are presented on LiDAR performance degradation in rain from both material and optical perspectives. These can aid component selection and the development of signal enhancing strategies for integrating LiDARs in vehicle designs to minimize the impact of rain.

As major natural disasters in grassland areas, fires and dust events seriously threaten human safety, property, and animal husbandry. Furthermore, these phenomena may be mutually reinforcing, which can lead to more severe cascading disasters. However, few studies have been on the mechanisms of grassland fire and dust events disaster chain. Therefore, we selected Dornod aimag (province), a typical temperate grassland, as the study area and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation patterns of grassland fires and dust weather, as well as the effect of grassland fires on dust weather based on MCD64A1 Burnt Area data and SYNOP dust data. The mechanism of grassland fires on dust weather was further investigated using the MOD13A3 vegetation index product and ERA5 wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation data. The results revealed that grassland fires and dust weather varied spatially across the study area. Furthermore, grassland fires occurred mainly in spring (April to May), summer (June), and autumn (October), while dust weather mainly occurred in spring (March to May). Moreover, autumn, winter, and spring cumulative grassland fires (both days and area) substantially affected the spring total dust weather days and dust storm days, particularly the spring cumulative dust storm days. Additionally, higher precipitation in the summer of 2014 resulted in higher vegetation coverage and more fuel in the autumn and winter of 2014, and even in the spring of 2015. As a result, the cumulative grassland fire days was higher, and the area was larger from September 2014 to April 2015, leading to a considerable increase in the cumulative dust storm days in May 2015. This study has important implications for disaster prevention and mitigation, ecological and environmental protection, and sustainable development in grasslands.

CO2, CH4 and CO are the most critical atmospheric gases in terms of their impact on the radiative system, air quality and health. This work provides information on the direction of source areas and potential sources of emissions and shows many aspects of these gases by a statistical analysis using bivariate polar diagrams and local weather conditions (e.g., temperature, wind speed and wind direction) recorded at the Lamto station (LTO, 6°31N and 5°02W) in Côte d’Ivoire over the 2014-2018 period. The results show that the main regions contributing to the high concentrations of CH4 (> 1925 ppb) and CO2 (> 420 ppm) in the GSS, GSP, PSS and PSP seasons are the North and Northwest sectors of Lamto. In these directions, CH4 and CO2 concentrations are associated with wind speeds less than 6 m.s-1, due to the influences of local sources as emissions resulting from the degradation of organic matter submerged during the impoundment of the Taabo dam, and/nor human activities linked to the practice of intensive agriculture. In addition, the high concentrations of CO (> 350 ppb) are observed in GSS in the North, North-West, North-East and East sectors for wind speeds less than or equal to 9 m.s-1, due to the influences of both local and distant sources. The correlation coefficients between CH4 and CO, and between CH4 and CO2 are positive and significant in all sectors. However, those calculated between CO2 and CO have showed both low and high values in all seasons.

Recently, NOAA has included GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Radio Occultation (RO) data as one of the crucial long-term observables for weather and climate applications. To include more GNSS RO data in the numerical weather prediction system, the NOAA Commercial Weather Data Pilot program (CWDP) started to explore the commercial RO data available on the market. After two rounds of pilot studies, the CDWP decided to award the first Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract to GeoOptics and Spire Incs. in 2020. This study examines the quality of Spire data products for weather and climate applications. Spire RO data are collected from commercial CubeSats through careful comparison with the data from Formosa Satellite Mission 7–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2), ERA-5, and high-quality radiosonde data. The results demonstrated that although with lower Signal-Noise-Ratio (SNR) in general, the pattern of the lowest penetration height for Spire is similar to those for COSMIC-2. The Spire and COSMIC-2 penetrate heights are between 0.6 and 0.8 km altitude at the tropical oceans. Although using different GNSS RO receivers, the precision of Spire STRASP receivers is of the same quality as those of COSMIC-2 Global Positioning System - GPS, GALILEO, and GLObal NAvigation Satellite System – GLONASS (TGRS) receivers. The retrieval accuracy from Spire is very compatible with those from COSMIC-2. We validated Spire temperature and water vapor profiles by comparing them with collocated radiosonde data. Generally, over the height region between 8 km and 16.5 km, the Spire temperature profiles match those from RS41 RAOB very well with temperature biases &lt; 0.02 K. Over the height range from 17.8 to 26.4 km, the temperature differences are ~-0.034 K with RS41 RAOB being warmer. We also estimated the error covariance matrix for Spire, COSMIC-2, and KOMPSAT-5. Results showed that the COSMIC-2 estimated error covariance values are slightly more significant over the oceans at the mid-latitudes (45oN-30oN and 30oS-45oS), which may also be owing to COSMIC-2 SNR being lower at those latitudinal zones.

This paper studies pandemic viruses that spread during the period (1759–2020) according to solar activity cycles. Our findings and results include the following: (1) The severity of a pandemic correlates negatively with the strength of solar activity; (2) Pandemic viruses are classified into three types based on their compatibility with solar activity associations. Most of them spread through the quiet Sun, where viruses survive better in cold and rainy weather, and in stable geomagnetic fields without strong disturbances; (3) The emergence of new strains of influenza viruses was manifested in two ways. First, the annual epidemics due to antigenic drift. Second, pandemics recur every 1–12 solar cycles (about 11–120 years) due to viral reassortment of new subtypes, which results in antigenic shifts; (4) Pandemic viruses have two groups according to their recurring period: first, recurring in nine solar cycles; second, recurring in twelve solar cycles. Furthermore, we reassort pandemic viruses from their previous spread in the same periodic classification. Moreover, we derive a periodicity formula for each subtype of the pandemic virus as a spread date.

Psychiatric patients are particularly vulnerable to strong weather stimuli, such as foehn, a hot wind that occurs in the alps. However, there is a dearth of research regarding its impact on mental health. This study investigated the impact of foehn wind among patients of a psychiatric hospital located in a foehn area in the Swiss Alps. Analysis was based on anonymized datasets obtained from routine records on admission and discharge, including the Brief Symptom Checklist (BSCL) questionnaire, as well as sociodemographic parameters (age, sex, and diagnosis). Between 2013 and 2020 a total of 10,456 admission days and 10,575 discharge days were recorded. All meteorological data were extracted from the database of the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology of Switzerland. We estimated the effect of foehn on the BSCL items using a distributed lag model. Significant differences were found between foehn and non-foehn admissions in obsession-compulsion, Interpersonal Sensitivity, depression, Anxiety, Phobic Anxiety, Paranoid Ideation, and General Severity Index (GSI) (p &lt;.05). Our findings suggest that foehn wind events may negatively affect specific mental health parameters in patients. More research is needed to fully understand the impact of foehn’s events on mental health.

Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the equity returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we use dummy variables created by employing a moving average and moving standard deviation. The important results are as follows. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative influence on the equity returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative impacts on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the weather effect of the abnormal temperature on the stock returns is greater in severe bearish market. Whereas the effect of the air pollution on the stock returns is greater in the bullish market. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analyzing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

We investigate the impact of air quality and weather on the stock market returns of the Shenzhen Exchange. To capture the air quality and weather effects, we apply dummy variables generated by applying a moving average and moving standard deviation. Our study provides several interesting results. First, in the whole sample period (2005–2019), we find that high air pollution and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. In the sub-period I (2005–2012), the 11-day model and 31-day model show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects on the Shenzhen stock returns. Second, the results of the quantile regression show that high air pollution have significant and negative effects during bullish market phase, and extremely high temperature have significant and negative effects during bearish market phase. This implies that the air quality and weather effects are asymmetric. Third, the more the Shenzhen stock returns drop, the greater the effect of the abnormal temperature is. Whereas, the more the Shenzhen stock returns increase, the greater the effect of the abnormal air quality is. Fourth, the least squares method underestimates the air quality and weather effects compared to the quantile regression method, suggesting that the quantile regression method is more suitable in analysing these effects in a very volatile emerging market such as the Shenzhen stock market.

The building sector accounts for nearly 40% of total primary energy consumption in the U.S. and E.U. and 20% of worldwide delivered energy consumption. Climate projections predict an increase of average annual temperatures between 1.1-5.4°C by 2100. As urbanization is expected to continue increasing at a rapid pace, the energy consumption of buildings is likely to play a pivotal role in the overall energy budget. In this study we used EnergyPlus building energy models to estimate the future energy demands of commercial buildings in Salt Lake County, Utah, USA, using locally-derived climate projections. We found significant variability in the energy demand profiles when simulating the study buildings under different climate scenarios, based on the energy standard the building was designed to meet, with reductions ranging from 10% to 60% in natural gas consumption for heating and increases ranging from 10% to 30% in electricity consumption for cooling. A case study, using projected 2040 building stock, showed a weighted average decrease in heating energy of 25% and an increase of 15% in cooling energy. We also found that building standards between ASHRAE 90.1-2004 and 90.1-2016 play a comparatively smaller role than variation in climate scenarios on the energy demand variability within building types. Our findings underscore the large range of potential future building energy consumption which depend on climatic conditions, as well as building types and standards.

Renewable energy sources (RES) will play a crucial role in future sustainable energy systems. In scenarios analyzing future energy system designs, a detailed spatial and temporal representation of renewable-based electricity generation is essential. For this, sufficiently representative weather data are required. Most analyses performed in this context use the historical data of either one specific reference year or an aggregation of multiple years. In contrast, this study analyzes the impact of different weather years based on historical weather data from 1980 through 2015 in accordance with the design of an exemplary future energy system. This exemplary energy system consists of on- and offshore wind energy for power-to-hydrogen via electrolysis, including hydrogen pipeline transport for most southwestern European countries. The assumed hydrogen demand for transportation needs represents a hypothetical future market penetration for fuel cell-electric vehicles of 75%. An optimization framework is used in order to evaluate the resulting system design with the objective function of minimizing the total annual cost (TAC) of the system. For each historical weather year, the applied optimization model determines the required capacities and operation of wind power plants, electrolyzers, storage technologies and hydrogen pipelines to meet the assumed future hydrogen demand in a highly spatially- and temporally-detailed manner, as well as the TAC of the system. Following that, the results of every individual year are compared in terms of installed capacities, overall electricity generation and connection to the transmission network, as well as the cost of these components within each region. The results reveal how sensitive the final design of the exemplary system is to the choice of the weather year. For example, the TAC of the system changes by up to 20% across two consecutive weather years. Furthermore, significant variation in the optimization results regarding installed capacities per region with respect to the choice of weather years can be observed.

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.

For offshore wind power generation, accessibility is one of the main factors that has great impact on operation and maintenance due to constraints on weather conditions for marine transportation. This paper presents a framework to explore the accessibility of an offshore site. At first, several maintenance types are defined and taken into account. Next, a data visualization procedure is introduced to provide an insight into the distribution of access periods over time. Then, a rigorous mathematical method based on finite state Markov chain is proposed to assess the accessibility of an offshore site from the maintenance perspective. A five-year weather data of a marine site is used to demonstrate the applicability and the outcomes of the proposed method. The main findings show that the proposed framework is effective in investigating the accessibility for different time scales and is able to catch the patterns of the distribution of the access periods. Moreover, based on the developed Markov chain, the average waiting time for a certain access period can be estimated. With more information on the maintenance of an offshore wind farm, the expected production loss due to time delay can be calculated.

To analyze the impact of weather factors on the resilience of airport flight operations, particularly on flight operation, economic performance, and transportation capacity, Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) model was used to identify key weather features and establish the mapping relationship between weather factors and airport operational resilience. Taking Xi'an Xianyang International Airport as an example, the weights of each route were determined using the Grey Relational Analysis method considering average daily flight volume, flight distance, and airport flow stability indicators. Flight operation records and weather data were utilized to calculate the importance of key weather factors on the resilience of critical flight operation indicators. The results indicate significant differences in average daily flight volume, flight distance, and airport flow stability across different routes, with routes in economically developed areas having a greater impact on airport flow stability. Temperature and wind speed changes are the key factors affecting flight operation and economic indicators, with importance values of 0.35 and 0.32 respectively. Wind direction change and wind speed change have the greatest impact on flight transportation capacity, with importance values of 0.7 and 0.65 respectively. Therefore, when conducting flight scheduling and risk assessment, special attention should be paid to key weather factors such as temperature and wind speed, while also considering the weight of each route to ensure flight safety, efficiency, and economic benefits.

This paper aims to study the performance of solar collectors with various sizes under different weather conditions of different Japanese cities, i.e. Kofu city, Nagoya city and Yamagata city. The heat generated from the solar collector was used to conduct a biogas dry reforming reactor in order to produce H2 to feed a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This study has revealed that the output temperature of solar collector, Tfb in April and July was higher than that in January and October irrespective of city. The optimum length of absorber (dx) of the collector was 4 m irrespective of city. It was clarified that Tfb in Yamagata city in January and October, i.e. winter and autumn is lower than that in Kofu city and Nagoya city especially, which is influenced by the tendency of a solar intensity (I) strongly, not velocity of surrounding air (ua). On the other hand, Tfb is almost the same in April and July, i.e. spring and summer, irrespective of city. The amount of produced H2 from the biogas dry reforming reactor and the power generated by SOFC using H2 in spring and summer were higher compared to the other seasons irrespective of city. This study has revealed that the highest available households number per month was 4.7 according to the investigation in this study.

For autonomous driving, perception is a primary and essential element that fundamentally deals with the insight into the ego vehicle’s environment through sensors. Perception is a challenging task suffering from dynamic objects and continuous environmental changes. The issue gets worse due to interrupting the quality of perception by adverse weather like snow, rain, fog, night light, sand storm, strong daylight, etc. In this work, we have tried to improve camera-based perception accuracy, such as autonomous driving-related object detection in adverse weather. We proposed the improvement of YOLOv8-based object detection in adverse weather through transfer learning using merged data from various harsh weather datasets. Two prosperous open-source datasets (ACDC and DAWN) and their merged dataset were used to detect primary objects on the road in harsh weather. A set of training weights were collected from training on the individual datasets, their merged version, and several subsets of those datasets according to their characteristics. A comparison between the training weights also occurred by evaluating the detection performance on the above-mentioned datasets and their subsets. The evaluation revealed that using custom datasets for training significantly improves the detection performance compared to the YOLOv8 base weights. And using more images through the feature-related data merging technique steadily increases the object detection performance.

Despite the important role of offshore renewable energies in the energy transition, the economical viability is still unclear. Therefore, an appropriate site selection is crucial. Besides the energy potential, the impact of operation and maintenance (O&M) aspects on the location can be critical. Traditional accessibility assessment metrics do not allow a comprehensive evaluation. Therefore, the present paper suggests a novel, technology-informed metric, incorporating the overall set of most critical aspects, i.e. metocean conditions, visibility due to sunlight and sea fog, system failures, and O&M logistics. Among the different aspects, limited visibility is shown to be highly relevant with a reduction of up to 60% in accessibility. The study assesses accessibility in 5 different locations across Europe. On the one hand, accessibility is shown to be less sensitive to long-term resource variations with a reduction of 5% in the last 6 decades. On the other hand, accessibility is shown to be inversely proportional to the energy potential overall, meaning that as energy potential increases, accessibility is reduced, increasing downtime, reducing final energy generation and increasing the final cost of energy. As a consequence, site selection should combine energy potential and accessibility assessments, which is enabled by the technology-informed metric presented here.

In the framework of the FireStorm project, four portable weather stations were installed in the Lousã/Estrela mountain range. Given that the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere’s sur-face network has two weather stations installed in this region, the new data allows an improved monitoring of the vertical variability of near-surface variables in this mountainous region. As most of the wildfires in mainland Portugal affect areas with complex terrain with elevations below 1200 m and major fires continue to burn overnight, it is also relevant to monitor the vertical changes of meteorological variables in the nighttime period, as these may exhibit large variability. This study provides the first assessment of the available data, with focus on the summer seasons of 2021 and 2022. The results highlight the large variability that was observed in the region and suggest that the risk of extreme fire behaviour in the nighttime period may be underestimated.

There is great interest in automatically detecting road weather and understanding its impacts on the overall safety of the transport network. This can, for example, support road condition-based maintenance or even serve as detection systems that assist safe driving during adverse climate conditions. In computer vision, previous work has demonstrated the effectiveness of deep learning in predicting weather conditions from outdoor images. However, training deep learning models to accurately predict weather conditions using real-world road-facing images is difficult due to: (1) the simultaneous occurrence of multiple weather conditions; (2) imbalanced occurrence of weather conditions throughout the year; and (3) road idiosyncrasies, such as road layouts, illumination, road objects etc. In this paper, we explore the use of focal loss function to force the learning process to focus on weather instances that are hard to learn with the objective to help address data imbalance. In addition, we explore the attention mechanism for pixel based dynamic weight adjustment to handle road idiosyncrasies using state-of-the-art vision transformer models. Experiments with a novel multi-label road weather dataset show that focal loss significantly increases the accuracy of computer vision approaches for imbalanced weather conditions. Furthermore, vision transformers outperforms current state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks in predicting weather conditions with a validation accuracy of 92% and F1-score of 81.22%, which is impressive considering the imbalanced nature of the dataset.

Accurate knowledge of the rain amount is an crucial driver in several hydro-meteorological applications. This is especially true in complex orography territories, which are typically impervious, thus leaving ungauged most of the mountain areas. Thanks to their spatial and temporal coverage, weather radars can potentially overcome such an issue. However, weather radar, if not accurately processed, can suffer from several limitations (e.g., beam blocking, altitude of the observation, path attenuation, indirectness of the measurement) that can hamper the reliability of the rain estimates performed. In this study, a comparison between rain gauge and weather radar retrievals is performed in the target area of the Abruzzo region in Italy, which is characterized by a heterogeneous orography ranging from the sea side to Apennine ridge. Consequently, the Abruzzo region has an inhomogeneous distribution of the rain gauges, with station density decreasing with the altitude reaching up to approximately 1500 m a.s.l. Notwithstanding, pluviometric inflow spatial distribution shows a sub-regional dependency as a function of four climatic and altimetric factors: coastal, hilly, mountain, and inner plain areas (i.e., Marsica). Such areas are used in this analysis to characterize the radar retrieval vs. rain gauge amounts in each of those zones. Compared to previous studies on the topic, the analysis presented an attention to the importance of an accurate selection of the climatic and altimetric sub-regional areas where undertake the radar vs. rain gauge comparison. This aspect is not only of great importance to correct biases in radar retrievals in a more selective way, but it also paves the way for more accurate hydro-meteorological applications (e.g., hydrological model initialization, quantify the aquifers recharge etc.) which, in general, require the accurate knowledge of rain amounts upstream of a basin. To fill the gap caused by the uneven rain gauge distribution, Ordinary Kriging has been applied on a regional scale to obtain 2D maps of rainfall data, which are cumulated on a monthly and yearly base. Weather radar data from the Italian mosaic are considered as well, in terms of rain rate retrievals and cumulations performed on the same time frame used for rain gauges. The period considered for the analysis is two continuous years: 2017 and 2018. The output of the elaborations are raster maps for both radar and interpolated rain gauges, where every pixel contains a rainfall quantity. Although the results show a general underestimation in the weather radar data especially in mountain and Marsica areas, even though within the 95% confidence interval of the OK estimation. Our analysis highlights that the average bias between radar and rain gauges, in terms of precipitation amounts, is a function of altitude and is almost constant in each of the selected areas. This achievement suggests that after a proper selection of homogeneous target areas, the radar retrievals can be corrected using the denser network of rain gauges typically distributed at lower altitudes and extend such correction at higher altitudes without loss of generality.

The capabilities of a quadcopter in the hover mode for low-altitude sensing of atmospheric turbulence with high spatial resolution in urban areas characterized by complex orography are investigated. The studies were carried out in different seasons (winter, spring, summer, and fall), and the quadcopter hovered in the immediate vicinity of ultrasonic weather stations. The DJI Phantom 4 Pro quadcopter and AMK-03 ultrasonic weather stations installed in different places of the studied territory were used in the experiment. The smoothing procedure was used to main regularities in the behavior of the longitudinal and lateral spectra of turbulence in the inertial and energy production ranges. The longitudinal and lateral turbulence scales were estimated by the least-square fit method with the von Karman model as a regression curve. It is shown that the turbulence spectra obtained with DJI Phantom 4 Pro and AMK-03 generally coincide with minor differences observed in the high-frequency region of the spectrum. In the inertial range, the behavior of the turbulence spectra shows that they obey the Kolmogorov-Obukhov “5/3” law. In the energy production range, the longitudinal and lateral turbulence scales and their ratio measured by DJI Phantom 4 Pro and AMK-03 agree to a good accuracy. Discrepancies in the data obtained with the quadcopter and the ultrasonic weather stations at the territory with complex orography are explained by the partial correlation of the wind velocity series at different measurement points and the influence of the inhomogeneous surface.

Precipitation is a crucial driver for many environmental processes and weather radars are capable of providing precipitation information with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) are also subject to various potential uncertainties. This study explores the development, uncertainties and potentials of the hourly operational German radar-based and gauge-adjusted QPE called RADOLAN and its reanalysed radar climatology dataset named RADKLIM in comparison to ground-truth rain gauge data. The precipitation datasets are statistically analysed across various time scales ranging from annual and seasonal aggregations to hourly rainfall intensities in regard to their capability to map long-term precipitation distribution, to detect low intensity rainfall and to capture heavy rainfall. Moreover, the impacts of season, orography and distance from the radar on long-term precipitation sums are examined in order to evaluate dataset performance and to describe inherent biases. Results revealed that both radar products tend to underestimate total precipitation sums and particularly high intensity rainfall. But our analyses also showed significant improvements throughout the RADOLAN time series as well as major advances through the climatologic reanalysis regarding the correction of typical radar artefacts, orographic and winter precipitation as well as range-dependent attenuation.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

This paper presents a comparison between rain gauges, C-band and X-band radar data over an instrumented and regulated catchment of the Paris region, as well as their respective hydrological impacts with the help of flow observations and a semi-distributed hydrological model. Both radars confirm the high spatial variability of the rainfall down to their space resolution (respectively one kilometer and 250 m) and therefore underscore limitations of semi-distributed simulations. The use of the polarimetric capacity of the Météo-France C-band radar was limited to corrections of the horizontal reflectivity and its rainfall estimates are adjusted with the help of a rain gauge network. On the contrary, neither calibration was performed for the polarimetric X-band radar of the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (below called ENPC X-band radar), nor any optimization of its scans. In spite of that and the non-negligible fact that the catchment was much closer to the C-band radar than to the X-band radar (20 km vs. 40 km), the latter seems to perform at least as well as the former, but with a higher scale resolution. This characteristic was best highlighted with the help of a multifractal analysis of the respective radar data, which also shows that the X-band radar was able to pick up a few extremes that were smoothed out by the C-band radar.

Accurate Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is fundamental for a large number of hydrometeorological applications, especially when addressing extreme rainfall phenomena. This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of various rainfall estimation methods, specifically those relying on weather radar data, rain gauge data, and their fusion. The study evaluates the accuracy and reliability of each method in estimating rainfall for a severe event that occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The obtained results indicate that merging radar and rain gauge data outperform both individual approaches by reducing errors and improving the overall reliability of precipitation estimates. The study highlights the importance of data fusion in enhancing the accuracy of QPE and also supports its application in operational contexts, providing evidence for the greater reliability of merging methods

A joint analysis of solar wind, geomagnetic field, and earthquake catalog data showed that before the catastrophic M7.8 and M7.5 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence on February 6, 2023, the closed strong magnetic storm occurred on November 7, 2022, SYM/H=-117 nT. Storm started at 08:04 UT. At this time, the high latitudinal part of Turkey's longitudinal region of future epicenters was located under the polar cusp, where the solar wind plasma would directly access the Earth's environment. The time delay between storm onset and earthquake occurrence was ~91 days. We analyzed all seven strong (M7+) earthquakes from 1967 to 2020 to verify the initial findings. A similar pattern has been revealed for all events. The time delay between magnetic storm onset and earthquake occurrence varies from some days to some months. To continue these investigations, a retrospective analysis of seismic and other geophysical parameters just after preceded geomagnetic storms in the epicenter areas is desirable.

Agriculture is an industry that heavily relies on the environment. The increasing frequency of ex-treme disasters attributable to climate change has adversely affected agricultural land and dis-rupted the stability of the supply of agricultural products. Therefore, we implemented a research program focused on current strategies for adapting to agricultural meteorological disasters. The primary goal was to actively promote disaster prevention information and techniques through information platforms and applications and to provide refined forecasting and an early warning system to enhance preparedness for and recovery from agricultural disasters. This initiative can transform passive mitigation into dynamic action by disseminating crucial information to farmers. We integrated meteorological data and crop characteristics to develop disaster prevention strate-gies for the predisaster, during-disaster, and postdisaster stages to empower farmers to implement autonomous disaster prevention, ensuring their profitability and minimizing the impact of disas-ters. This paper presents an agricultural disaster prevention system involving cross-disciplinary collaboration to establish an early warning system for crop disasters. However, the effectiveness of the early warning system relies on the availability of complete meteorological and crop infor-mation, necessitating high-density agricultural meteorological stations, refined weather forecast services, historical crop damage data, and ongoing research and development on disaster preven-tion technology. In the system, a diversified social media interface is used to provide local farmers with weather forecast information. When impending disasters are identified, the platform acti-vates disaster prevention measures to reduce agricultural losses. This article paper introduces Taiwan’s agricultural disaster prevention system as a complete disaster prevention strategy.

This study explores the application of the Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) algorithm to the field of meteorology, specifically for the short-term nowcasting of severe convective weather events such as hail, convective wind gust (CG) and thunderstorms, short-term heavy rain(STHR) in Gansu. Training data comes from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and real-time ground observations, the performance of the proposed FCN model based on 2017 to 2021 training datasets demonstrate a high prediction accuracy, with an overall error rate of 16.6%. Furthermore, the model exhibited an error rate of 18.6% across both severe and non-severe weather conditions when testing against the 2022 dataset. Operational deployment in 2023 has yielded an average Critical Success Index (CSI) of 24.3%, a Probability of Detection (POD) of 62.6%, and a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 71.2% for these convective events. It is noteworthy that the predicting performance for STHR was particularly effective with the highest POD and CSI, as well as the lowest FAR. CG and hail predictions had comparable CSI and FAR scores, although the POD for CG surpassed that for hail. The FCN model’s optimal performance for hail prediction occurred at the 4th, 8th, and 10th forecast hours, while for CG, the 6th hour was most accurate, and for STHR, the 2nd and 4th hours were most effective. These findings underscore the FCN model's ideal suitability for short-term forecasting of severe convective weather, presenting extensive prospects for the automation of meteorological operations in the future.

Accurate prediction of the degree of airport delays under the influence of convective weather is crucial for collaborative traffic management implementation and improving the efficiency of airport operations. However, existing studies usually only consider numerical-type quantitative features of weather-affected traffic in their models, and lack the introduction of spatial information to comprehensively portray the traffic operation scenarios under the influence of weather. In order to overcome this problem, this paper firstly designs a new image representation of weather-affected air traffic, and constructs a multi-channel traffic and weather scene image (MTWSI) by populating the airspace two-dimensional grid with traffic and meteorological information to represent the overall traffic operation situation in the terminal area under the influence of convective weather; then, a deep convolutional neural network-based airport delay prediction model ( ADLCNN), which takes MTWSI images as input and uses a specific CNN model to extract the deep features that affect traffic operation in it to input into the subsequent classification algorithm to predict the flight delay level; finally, a series of comparative experiments are carried out on the operational data of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, and the experimental validation shows that, compared with the traditional machine learning methods, the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction The experimental validation shows that the proposed CNN-based airport delay prediction model has satisfactory prediction performance compared with the traditional machine learning methods, which also proves that the proposed MTWSI method can more comprehensively respond to the real traffic conditions.

The brief paper utilises Zimbabwe as a case study to discuss the effects of El Nino in Southern Africa. It offers potential adaptation and mitigation measures for farmers to prepare for the forecasted El Nino-influenced rainy season 2023/24 and the future. To reduce climate and weather hazards connected with El Nino, the brief report suggests anticipatory action methods be applied in southern Africa, using Zimbabwe as a case study. To protect farmers' livelihoods and enhance drought readiness for the forthcoming agricultural seasons, the paper suggests a degree of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making that the agriculture industry should adhere to. It emphasised the significance of providing farmers with knowledge and advice regarding drought and heat stress, including cultivating crop varieties and livestock and sufficient fire safety precautions. The brief paper calls to advocate for anticipatory action to avert El Nino in Southern Africa.

In this study we investigated the association between weather types (WTs) and the Urban Heat Island Intensity (UHII) in the region of Attica (Greece). The application of the methodology results in ten WTs over Attica region. The UHII was calculated for every hour of the day from 2008 to 2017, using a new air temperature dataset produced by Copernicus Climate Change Service. To have more clear results concerning the association between WTs and UHII, we have used also the upper 5% of UHII (Urban Overheating-UO). The UO have been estimated for two-time intervals (daytime and nighttime) and for the warm period (June-September). The UHII frequency distribution as well as the spatial characteristics of the UO were also investigated. It was found that UO was amplified under WT2 during the night while, WT10 was mainly responsible for exacerbated UO magnitude at daytime, in all months. Furthermore, analysis results revealed that the UO effect is more pronounced in Athens during the night, especially at Athens center. The daytime hot-spots identified mainly in sub-urban and rural areas. Therefore, this methodology may help for heat mitigation strategies and climate adaptation measures, in urban environments.

The effects of global warming combined with the progressive expansion of urbanization have considerably increased exposure to urban flooding and runoff widespread erosion risk, also causing shallow landslides and mud flows, respectively in urbanized areas of lowland and hill/foothill environments. Increasing urban flooding resilience has become a priority at virtually all levels of governance. The analysis of a different hazard scenarios, in which various hydro-meteorological conditions and management alternatives are examined, should act as the basis for the effective design and evaluation of interventions to improve urban flooding resilience. Turin Metropolitan Area (TMA), located in north-western Italy, represents a unique case due to its complex orography, with a mountainous sector in the west side and a flat or hilly part in the east side. During the warm season, these environmental conditions make the urban area prone to severe atmospheric convection causing frequent hailstorms and rainstorms of high intensity that may impact on urban infrastructures (i.e., drainage system and road network), thus requiring an adequate management as a key factor to reducing risk and losses. The urban areas of TMA are monitored by polarimetric Doppler weather radars and by a dense rain gauges network. Analyzing several case studies of urban flooding, this research work assesses the feasibility of a meteorological radar early warning system based on the identification of rainfall thresholds that characterize urban flooding, occurring in the lowlands, and the runoff erosion phenomena affecting the urbanized hills and foothills.

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

Previous studies have acknowledged the impact of weather changes on retail uncertainty. They primarily focus on understanding how weather conditions affect offline consumer behavior and aiming to develop effective marketing strategies. However, there is little research on the complex impact of weather on online shopping behavior. To bridge this gap, we conduct a study with a sample of 261 consumers from China with shopping experience in Community Retail Shops (CRSs). We utilize the S-O-R model and theories including meteorological emotional effect theory, emotional coherence and meteorological psychology to propose and validate models elucidating the relationship between weather and consumers' online shopping behavior in CRS. Our findings reveal that weather conditions affect consumers' spending patterns and purchase diversity, mediating by consumers' emotion and risk aversion, when they comfortably shop online at home. Furthermore, employing the fsQCA model, we identify the critical path through which weather conditions and consumer types influence risk aversion awareness. The results provide management implications for retailers to develop online marketing strategies for different consumer types.

Shared e-scooters are gaining popularity as a solution for first and last-mile connectivity in urban areas. This study conducted in Doha, Qatar, aimed to understand how weather and land use patterns affect e-scooter usage, utilizing various datasets. Given the novelty of micromobility systems in Qatar and their sensitivity to the local hot and humid climate, the study employed a comprehensive analytical approach. Analysis revealed that e-scooter demand spikes on weekends, particularly in the afternoon. Influential land use factors include proximity to universities and employment centers, while a higher presence of Qatari females in an area correlates with reduced usage, pointing to cultural influences. Weather conditions, especially humidity and extreme temperatures, significantly impact e-scooter demand. The study employed the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm for trip clustering and the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to model trip counts, considering temperature and humidity. Insights showed humidity as a critical predictor of hourly e-scooter trip counts. These findings underscore the importance of considering weather, land use, the relationship between land use characteristics and weather variations, and finally cultural factors in optimizing e-scooter services. By integrating data analysis and machine learning, the study offers valuable insights for enhancing urban mobility and transportation planning in GCC countries, promoting sustainable urban mobility.

In this paper major machine learning (ML) tools and the most important applications developed elsewhere for numerical weather and climate modeling systems (NWCMS) are reviewed. NWCMSs are briefly introduced. The most important papers published in this field in recent years are reviewed. The advantages and limitations of the ML approach in applications to NWCMS are briefly discussed. Currently, this field is experiencing explosive growth. Several important papers are published every week. Thus, this paper should be considered a simple introduction to the problem.

Prescriptions for fuels management are universally applied across forest types in British Columbia, Canada, to reduce fire behaviour potential in the wildland-urban interface. Fuel thinning treatments are assumed to reduce the potential for sustained ignition and crown fire initiation by reducing surface fuel loading. We hypothesized that these prescriptions are not appropriate for the coastal wet forests in the Whistler region of the province. Our study measured the efficacy of fuel thinning treatments in four stands located in the Whistler community forest. We examined several in-stand microclimate variables during snow melt in the spring and at the height of fire danger in late summer, at thinned and unthinned locations paired using GIS- analysis. We found that thinning increased the wildfire risk based on the differences between unthinned and thinned areas in the same forest stand.

A time integration scheme based on semi-Lagrangian advection and Laplace transform adjustment has been implemented in a baroclinic primitive equation model. The semi-Lagrangian scheme makes it possible to use large time steps. However, errors arising from the semi-implicit scheme increase with the time step size. In contrast, the errors using the Laplace transform adjustment remain relatively small for typical time steps used with semi-Lagrangian advection. Numerical experiments confirm the superior performance of the Laplace transform scheme relative to the semi-implicit reference model. The algorithmic complexity of the scheme is comparable to the reference model, making it computationally competitive, and indicating its potential for integrating weather and climate prediction models.

Mountain systems within the Mediterranean region, e.g. the Pyrenees, are very sensitive to climate change. In the present study, we quantified the magnitude of extreme precipitation events and the number of days with torrential precipitation (daily precipitation ≥ 100 mm) in all the rain gauges available in the Pyrenees for the 1981-2015 period, analyzing the contribution of the synoptic scale in this type of events. The easternmost (under the Mediterranean influence) and north-westernmost (under Atlantic influence) areas of the Pyrenees registered the highest number of torrential events. The heaviest events are expected in the eastern part, i.e. 400 mm day-1 for a return period of 200 years. Northerly advections over the Iberian Peninsula, which present a low zonal index, i.e. im-plying a stronger meridional component, give rise to torrential events over the western Pyrenees; and easterly advections favour extreme precipitation over the eastern Pyrenees. The air mass travels a long way, from the east coast of North America, bringing heavy rainfall to the western Pyrenees. In the case of the torrential events over the eastern Pyrenees, the air mass causing the events in these areas is very short and originates in the Mediterranean Basin. The NAO index has no influence upon the occurrence of torrential events in the Pyrenees, but these events are closely related to certain Mediterranean teleconnections such as the WeMO

This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed generations of virologists: (1) the seasonal timing of respiratory illness; (2) the common viruses causing respiratory illness worldwide, including year-round disease in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of outbreaks to weather, specifically temperature; (4) the rapid arrival and termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other viruses. The inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality is discussed, and a simple hypothesis is proposed, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TDVT), that is compatible with the above features of respiratory illness. TDVT notes that viruses can transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining host mobility) and suggests that endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific viral tropism within the human body, whereby they replicate most rapidly at temperatures below body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. Biochemical and tissue-culture studies show that “wild” respiratory viruses show such natural thermal sensitivity. The typical early autumn surge of colds and the existence of respiratory illness in the Tropics year-round at intermediate levels are explained by the tendency for strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. The TDVT hypothesis has important practical implications for preventing and treating respiratory illness including Covid-19. TVDT is testable with many options for experiments to increase our understanding of viral seasonality and pathogenicity.

This review seeks to explain four features of viral respiratory illnesses that have perplexed many generations of microbiologists: (1) the seasonal occurrence of viral respiratory illness; (2) the occurrence of respiratory illness year-round in the Tropics; (3) the rapid response of illness to temperature drops in temperate regions; (4) the explosive arrival and rapid termination of epidemics caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses. I discuss the inadequacy of the popular explanations of seasonality, and propose a simple hypothesis, called Temperature Dependent Viral Tropism (TD-VT), that is compatible with the above and other features of respiratory illness. TD-VT notes that viruses can often transmit themselves more effectively if they moderate their pathogenicity (thereby maintaining the mobility of their hosts) and suggests that most endemic respiratory viruses accomplish this by developing thermal sensitivity, in the sense that they normally replicate rapidly only at temperatures below normal body temperature. This allows them to confine themselves to the upper respiratory tract and to avoid infecting the lungs, heart, gut etc. I review biochemical and tissue-culture studies that found that “wild” respiratory viruses often show natural thermal sensitivity within a range that supports organ-specific tropism within the human body, and I discuss the evident tendency for viral strains to adapt their thermal sensitivity to their local climate and season. I also explore the possible misinterpretation of early experiments where volunteers were inoculated nasally with viral samples and then chilled. Next, I discuss the practical implications of the TD-VT hypothesis for preventing and treating respiratory illness. Finally, I note that the hypothesis is very testable and make suggestions for the most important experiments to increase our understanding of the seasonality and pathogenicity of viral respiratory illness.

In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.

Effects of the convection flow, atmospheric diffusivity and humidity on evolution and travel distances of exhaled aerosol clouds by an infected person are considered. The aim of this work is to evaluate the importance of aerosol transmission routes and the effectiveness of the 2-metre separation distance policy. A potential impact of use of face masks on the infection transmission rate, and an opportunity to reduce infection in hospitals, care homes and other public spaces by appropriate monitoring and filtering of air are also considered. The results obtained demonstrate that aerosol particles generated by coughing and sneezing can travel over 30 m. Modelling of the evolution of aerosol clouds generated by coughing and sneezing enables us to evaluate the deposition dose of aerosol particles in healthy individuals. For example, a person in a public place (e.g. supermarket or car park) can accumulate in the respiratory system up to 200 virus copies in 2 min time by breathing in virus laden aerosols. Wearing face mask considerably reduces the deposited load down to 2 virus copies per 2 min. The modelling also suggests that it should be possible to measure virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) within aerosol particles in hospitals and public places, e.g. care homes and supermarkets.

This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic – also known as COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) – could have been favored by specific weather conditions. It was found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China) – where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020 – was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic has been very severe from February to March. The similarity suggests that this pandemic worsens under weather temperatures between 4°C and 11°C. Based on this result, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From January to March, this isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from January to March. It is predicted that next spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps are provided as supplements.

Two extreme wind-driven wildfire events impacted northern and southern California in late 2017 leading to 46 fatalities and thousands of structures lost. This study describes the meteorological and climatological factors that drove and enabled these wildfire events and quantifies the rarity of such conditions over the observational record. Both extreme wildfire events featured fire-weather metrics that were unprecedented in the observational record in addition to a sequence of climatic conditions that preconditioned fuels. The North Bay fires that affected portions of northern California in early October occurred coincident with strong downslope winds. The vast majority of the fires’ devastating effects and acres burned occurred overnight and within the first twelve hours of ignition. By contrast, the southern California fires of December were characterized by the longest Santa Ana wind event on record and included the largest wildfire in California’s history. Both fire events occurred following an exceptionally wet winter that was preceded by the drought of record in California. Fuels were further preconditioned as the warmest summer and autumn on record occurred in northern and southern California, respectively. Accelerated curing of fuels coupled with the delayed onset of autumn precipitation allowed for critically low dead fuel moisture leading up to the foehn wind events. Fire weather conditions were well forecasted several days prior to the fire. However, the rarity of fire-weather conditions that occurred in the wildland urban interface, along with other societal factors were key contributors to wildfire impacts to communities.