This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water resources in a large semi-arid urban watershed located in Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface-subsurface HydroGeoSpheremodel at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2050) climate scenario derived from the outputs of three Regional Climate Models (RCM) under the RCP 4.5 scenario were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predict increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58°C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agriculture water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater for (2020-2030), and then they will be reduced for (2030-2050). All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 meters in topographically high zones where the groundwater table is deep and an increase of 2 meters in the shallow groundwater table.

Based on K-ε Standard Wall turbulence model (2-Equation) and Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations defined for incompressible fluids, fluid flow behaviour around hyperloop pods in an evacuated tube was simulated using ANSYS fluent solver assuming steady state and two dimensional conditions. In this research, to develop the case studies, using combination of different head and tail shape profile, four kind of hyperloop pods were developed with the aid of SolidWorks. These four pods have been investigated for their aerodynamic behaviour as four different case scenarios. The results of simulation depicts that an atmospheric pressure of 100 Pa with blockage ratio of 0.36 in tube provides the best possible aerodynamic behaviour for the designed hyperloop pod models. This research finds that overall aerodynamic behaviour of hyperloop pods can be varied by changing the head and tail shape profile of pods and a particular combination of head and tail shape profile can provide optimally best aerodynamic capabilities. Thus, this research paper provides a novel method of obtaining best aerodynamic capabilities in hyperloop pods by designing head profile optimally in combination with tail profile. This outcome will provide major contribution towards the development of hyperloop pods in future with better aerodynamic behaviour resulting in lesser electrical energy required to propel the hyperloop pods in evacuated tube.

Several particles are not observed directly, but only through their decay products. We consider the possibility that they might be fakeons, i.e. fake particles, which mediate interactions but are not asymptotic states. A crucial role to determine the true nature of a particle is played by the imaginary parts of the one-loop radiative corrections, which are affected in nontrivial ways by the presence of fakeons in the loop. The knowledge we have today is sufficient to prove that most non directly observed particles are true physical particles. However, in the case of the Higgs boson the possibility that it might be a fakeon remains open. The issue can be resolved by means of precision measurements in existing and future accelerators.

Classical non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) is a molecular pathway that detects, processes and ligates DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) throughout the cell cycle. Mutations in several NHEJ genes result in neurological abnormalities and immunodeficiency both in humans and mice. The NHEJ pathway is required for the V(D)J recombination in developing B and T lymphocytes, and for class switch recombination in mature B cells. Ku heterodimer formed by Ku70 and Ku80 recognizes DSBs and facilitates the recruitment of accessory factors (e.g., DNA-PKcs, Artemis, Paxx and Mri/Cyren) and downstream core factors subunits XLF, XRCC4 and Lig4. Accessory factors might be dispensable for the process depending on the genetic background and DNA lesion type. To determine the physiological role of Mri in DNA repair and development, we introduced frame-shift mutation in the Mri gene in mice. We then analyzed the development of Mri-deficient mice as well as wild type and immunodeficient controls. Mice lacking Mri possessed reduced levels of class switch recombination in B lymphocytes and slow proliferation of neuronal progenitors when compared to wild type littermates. Human cell lines lacking Mri were as sensitive to DSBs as WT controls. Overall, we concluded that Mri/Cyren is largely dispensable for DNA repair and mouse development.

Magnetic properties of soft magnetic composites are highly sensitive to the processing conditions. In this paper we focus on the possibility to model this effect using the Jiles-Atherton-Sablik theory. It is assumed that the effect of varying compaction pressure may be described by direct introduction of stress-dependent term in the model equations. The values of model parameters are kept constant. Verification of the proposed approach is carried out using measurement data from self-developed iron-based composite cores.

Peanut production contributes to food security in northern Ghana due to its ability to tolerate drought and survive on marginal lands. This notwithstanding, poor handling along the value chain favors aflatoxin contamination, a threat to human and animal life. Farmer-led improved storage practice, a potential solution to aflatoxin contamination, have been promoted in northern Ghana. However, there is limited evidence on the factors influencing the use of the improved storage system that may guide dissemination efforts. Using the Cragg’s two stage model, our results show that the probability and intensity of adopting the improved storage structure is principally and significantly influenced by economic active household members, storing of peanut in other places relative to the field, and location of farmer residence. In disseminating the improved peanut storage structure, the identified factors must be incorporated in the selection criteria to ensure maximum uptake and usage. Farmer training programs that incorporate both good agronomic practices and good storage practices must be intensified to reduce postharvest losses due to aflatoxin contamination. These strategies will help mitigate the harmful effect of aflatoxin, ensure economic sustainability, and enhance food security.

The Algiers Stock Exchange (ASE) is the only stock exchange in Algeria. It’s one of the newest and smallest emerging stock exchanges in the world. The focus of this paper is to model and forecast monthly returns of the ASE index (DZAIRINDEX) using The Box- Jenkins methodology. The period of this study is from Jun 2010 to July 2019. According to Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) estimator, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is chosen as the best model for forecasting the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns. Diagnostic tests confirm that the fitted model is adequate, where the residuals of this model are normally distributed with no autocorrelation and no heteroskedasticity. The forecast of the monthly DZAIRINDEX returns for one year ahead using this model shows a decreasing fluctuations trend. Based on different measures of forecast accuracy such as ME, MAE, RMSE, MASE, we show that the forecast accuracy of SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,0,1) is acceptable and this model performs much better than a naïve model. These results could be used by the financial communities in Algeria to deal with stock exchange risks and to improve their decisions.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

The effect of divergence of chute sidewalls with three different baffle block geometries namely USBR, trihedral and semicircular blocks, as well as the depth and dimensions of the scour hole downstream of the chute were studied using a physical model. For this purpose, 9 models of baffled chutes were designed and constructed with divergence ratios of 1.45, 1.75, and 2.45 and without divergence (with a divergence ratio of 1). Comparing the results on the effect of block geometry at different divergence ratios revealed that the use of blocks proposed in this study instead of standard USBR blocks reduced the mean and maximum scour hole by 50%. For a given block geometry, the mean depth, maximum depth, and length of scour hole were reduced by 75%, 58%, and 50%, respectively.

This paper proposes a novel deterministic methodology for estimating the optimal sampling frequency (SF) of water quality monitoring systems. The proposed methodology is based on employing two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation models to determine the minimum SF considering all the potential changes in the boundary conditions of a water body. A two-dimensional contaminant transport simulation model (RMA4) was implemented to estimate the distribution patterns of the total dissolved solids (TDS) within the Al-Hammar Marsh in the southern part of Iraq for 30 cases of potential boundary conditions. Using geographical information system (GIS) tools, a spatiotemporal analysis approach was applied to the results of the RMA4 model to determine the minimum SF of the monitoring stations with an accuracy level of detectable change in TDS concentration (ALC) of 5%, 10% and 15%. The proposed methodology specified a minimum and maximum SF for each monitoring station (MS) that ranged between 12 and 33 times per year, respectively. Additionally, increasing the ALC to 10% and 15% increase the minimum SF for some MSs by approximately 18% and 21%, respectively. However, the proposed methodology includes all the potential values and cases of boundary conditions, which increases the certainty of monitoring the system and the efficiency of the SF schedule. Moreover, the proposed methodology can be effectively applied to all types of surface water resources.

In this paper, we propose a new mathematical model based on the association between susceptible and recovered individual, where the association between susceptible and recovered individual is disturbed by white noise. This model is based on demographic changes and is used for long term behavior. We study the stability of equilibria of the deterministic model and prove the conditions for the extinction of diseases. Then, we investigate and obtain the critical condition of the stochastic epidemic model for the extinction and the permanence in mean of the disease with the white noise. To verify our results, we present some numerical simulations for real data related to disease.

This article attempts to formulate a mathematical model for a potential explanation regarding the unavoidable impact of a rigid body's peculiar shape on the seamless flow over it. The solid body completely immersed in a Newtonian fluid and respectively has a relative open circuit flow on it will typically experience various observable phenomena like flow separation, flow transition, down-wash, stalling at the higher angle of attack, stalling velocity and how cambered airfoil can typically generate lift at a zero incidence angle. This article respectively represents an understanding of the laminar flow over a rigid body's external surface with due respect to its distinctive shape and size. This working paper formulates a more realistic and simplified mathematical model for open circuit laminar flow over a body, based on the historical data of aerodynamics and theoretical mechanics. This is intended to properly estimate forces on the continuous surface of the body in a laminar flow, to properly explain, understand and predict mentioned phenomena. Most of all the mechanism of streamline formation and its deformation with due regards to flow, shape and size of the body in an open-circuit laminar are formulated mathematically to enhance better design theory which can reduce experimentation while designing a streamlined body.

We present a brief history of the construction of models of the universe, followed by calculations of quantitative characteristics of basic geometric and kinematic properties of the Standard Cosmological Model ($\Lambda$CDM). Using the Friedmann equations of uniform space, we derive equations characterizing a $\Lambda$CDM model that describes a universe corresponding to current observational data. The equations take into account the effects of radiation and ultra-relativistic neutrinos. It is shown that the universe at very early and late stages can be described to sufficient accuracy by simple formulas. Certain important moments of cosmic evolution are determined: the times when densities of the gravitational components of the universe become equal, when they contribute equally to the gravitational force, when the accelerating expansion of space begins, and several others. The dependences of different distances on redshift and the scale factor of space are derived. The distance to the sphere that expands with the speed of light (the Hubble distance), and its current and future acceleration, are found. Concepts of a horizon, second inflation, and second horizon are discussed. We consider the remote future of the universe and the opportunity, in principle, of connection with extraterrestrial civilizations.

Timely processing of observations from hyper-spectral imagers, such as SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), largely depends on fast radiative transfer calculations. This paper mostly concerns the development and implementation of a new forward model for SEVIRI to be applied to real time processing of infrared radiances for the physical retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity. The new radiative transfer model improves computational time by a factor of ≈ 7 compared to the previous versions and makes it possible to process SEVIRI data at nearly real time. The new forward model has been applied for the simultaneous retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity in three infrared channels (8.7, 10.8, 12 μm). The inverse scheme relies on a Kalman filter approach, which allows us to exploit a sequential processing of SEVIRI observations. Based on the new forward model, the paper also presents a validation retrieval performed with in situ observations acquired during a field experiment carried out in 2017 at Gobabeb (Namib desert) validation station. Furthermore, a comparison with IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) emissivity retrievals has been performed as well. It has been found that the retrieved emissivities are in good agreement with each other and with in situ observations, i.e. average differences are generally well below 0.01.

This paper analyses the evolution of the internal damage in two types of steel that show different fracture behaviours, with one of them being the initial material used for manufacturing prestressing steel wires, which shows a flat fracture surface perpendicular to the loading direction, and the other one being a standard steel used in reinforced concrete structures, which shows the typical cup-cone surface. 3mm-diameter cylindrical specimens are tested with a tensile test carried out in several loading stages and, after each of them, unloaded and analysed with X-ray tomography, which allows detection of internal damage throughout the tensile test. In the steel used for reinforcement, damage is developed progressively in the whole specimen, as predicted by Gurson-type models, while in the steel used for manufacturing prestressing steel-wire damage is developed only in the very last part of the test. In addition to the experimental study, a numerical analysis is carried out by means of the finite element method by using a Gurson model to reproduce the material behaviour.

Purpose: To investigate the extent of anterior chamber angle circumference needed to maintain a physiological outflow facility (C). Methods: Twenty anterior segments of porcine eyes were assigned to 5 groups, each with a different degree of cyanoacrylate-mediated angle closure: 90° (n = 4), 180° (n = 4), 270° (n = 4), 360° (n = 4) and four unoccluded control eyes. The outflow facility was measured at baseline, 3, 12, 24, and 36 hours after angle closure. Outflow patterns were evaluated with canalograms and the histomorphology was compared. Results: Baseline outflow facilities of the five groups were similar (F = 0.922, P = 0.477). Complete, circumferential occlusion over 360° induced a significant decrease in facility from baseline at all time-points (P ≤ 0.023 at 3, 12, 24 and 36 hours). However, no difference from baseline was found in any of the partially-occluded (0–270°) groups (F ≥ 0.067, P ≥ 0.296 at 3, 12, 24 and 36 hours). The canalograms confirmed the extent of occlusion with flow through the unblocked regions. Histology revealed no adverse effects of blockage on the TM or aqueous plexus in the unoccluded angle portions. The unoccluded TM appeared normal. Conclusion: Cyanoacrylate-mediated angle occlusion created a reproducible angle closure model. 90° of unoccluded anterior chamber angle circumference was sufficient to maintain physiological outflow. This model may help understand how outflow can be regulated in healthy, nonglaucomatous TM.

Objective: This paper aims to build an Effort Estimation Model for design, coding and testing Web Applications Based Fuzzy and Practical Models, which will help in optimizing the efforts in software development. Methods/Analysis: Soft computing approach is adopted and applied in the effort estimation and then compared with practical efforts in the development process with interpreting the historical data available for the existing functionalities. Findings: The effort estimation model presented in this paper focuses on the first level estimates published by Project Managers and the second level estimates presented by Project Leaders or Developers for any new requirement or enhancement for a web application built on 3-tier architecture using Microsoft technologies. The model considers the classification of each task as either Low or Medium or High complexity. These tasks pertain to the lowest level parts in bottom-up estimation. Efforts are estimated for designing, coding and unit testing of these tasks and the efforts are summed up to get the effort estimation for the higher level which is a feature to be implemented. Novelty/Improvement: The paper also discusses about the application of the effort estimation model by taking a new requirement as a case study. The first level estimates calculated using the effort estimation model has a variance of about 25% when compared with the actual effort. This variance is very much acceptable considering the fact that the first level estimates can be tolerable up to 35%. The proposed effort estimation tool would help the project managers to efficiently control the project, manage the resources effectively, and improve the software development process and also trade off analyses among schedule, performance, quality and functionality. Fuzzy logic is used to verify the claims made in efforts estimation. It is proposed a new relation between the number of data and efforts value membership for actual data. And converts it into crisp value in the range [0…1] which helps to classify the complexity of the task and subtask in the design, coding and testing phases.

Some of the recent large-scale national projects in South Korea are delayed or suspended due to belated responses to risk occurring on site. Currently, the Far East District (FED) project is being implemented to relocate the US Army bases from Yongsan to Pyeongtaek. Because of lack of experience and understanding about the characteristics of such a project, the deadline of taking over to the US Army Korea has been missed. This study identifies problems of each participant in the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) of the US Army Korea with respect to construction project management and establishes a risk management strategy reflecting characteristics of FED project. To derive significant risk factors influencing YRP, various field data like weekly and monthly reports and other reports on construction condition are analyzed, and experts’ advices are collected and a survey is conducted. Mediators and latent variables are ultimately obtained. Furthermore, a structural equation model is used to both analyze and evaluate complex causal relations among many variables of YRP. The impact of risk factors on the schedule, quality and cost of the project is analyzed. In particular, the case of Site A is examined to see how the project is affected by those risk factors.

The creation of computer models is often driven by the need to make predictions in regions where there is no data (i.e. extrapolations). This makes validation challenging as it is difficult to ensure that a model will be suitable when it is applied in a region where there are no observations of the system of interest. The current paper proposes a method that can reveal flaws in a model which may be difficult to identify using traditional approaches for model calibration and validation. The method specifically targets the situation where one is attempting to model a dynamical system that is believed to possess time-invariant calibration parameters. The proposed approach allows these parameters to vary with time, even though it is believed that they are time-invariant. The of such an analysis is to identify key discrepancies - indications that a model has inherent flaws and, as a result, should not be used to influence decisions in regions where there is no data. The proposed method isn't necessarily a predictor of extrapolation performance, rather, it is a stringent test that, the authors believe, should be applied before extrapolation is attempted. The approach could therefore form a useful part of wider validation frameworks in the future.

Fusarium graminearum causes head blight in wheat and corn, and produces chemicals harmful for humans and other animals. It is important to understand how it grows in order to prevent outbreaks. There are 3 well-known growth models for microorganisms and they seem applicable to molds: linear, Gompertz and Baranyi. This study aimed to see which could better represent F. graminearum growth. Three replicates were grown in yeast extract agar (YEA) for 20 days. The Feret’s radius was measured in ImageJ software, and then related to the models. Linear model was the most closely correlated to the actual growth. Thus, considering that it was the most representative of the reality and it is easier to use, it seems to be the best logical choice for F. graminearum growth studies.

The coal mine underground reservoir is an appropriate solution between coal mining and groundwater resource protection and utilization. By calculating the storage capacity of a groundwater reservoir, the storage coefficient has been proved to be always an empirical value. Based on the mathematical derivation of the vertical fracture area ratio and the horizontal fracture area rate of the collapse zone and the fissure zone in the goaf area of the coal seam, the mathematical models of tem are derived, and the model for calculating the water storage coefficient is derived. The water storage coefficient derived from the theoretical model had more basis and more advanced than the traditional empirical value. By using this method, the practical calculation of No.1 underground reservoir of the DaLliuta Coalmine in Shenhua Shendong, has got a perfect matching with the actual groundwater storage capacity.

In this study, the model proposed by Yang et al. to generalize the stress–strain model for unconfined concrete with consideration of the size effect is expanded. Sim et al.’s compressive strength model that is based on the function of specimen width and aspect ratio was used for the maximum stress. In addition, a strain at the maximum stress was formulated as a function of compressive strength by considering the size effect using the regression analysis of datasets compiled from a wide variety of specimens. The descending branch after the peak stress was formulated with consideration of less dissipated area of fracture energy with the increase in specimen width and aspect ratio in the compression damage zone (CDZ) model. The key parameter for the slope of the descending branch was formulated as a function of specimen width and aspect ratio, concrete density, and compressive strength of concrete considering the size effect. Consequently, a rational stress–strain model for unconfined concrete was proposed. This model explains the trends of the peak stress and strain at the peak stress to decrease and the slope of the descending branch to increase, as the specimen width and aspect ratio increase. The proposed model agrees well with the test results, irrespective of the compressive strength of concrete, concrete type, specimen width and aspect ratio. In particular, the proposed model for the stress–strain curve rationally considered the effect of decreasing peak stress and increasing the descending branch slope, with the increase in specimen width and aspect ratio.

As climate is not only a valuable tourism resource but also a factor influencing travel experience, estimating climate change can provide implications to sustainable development of the tourism industry. This study develops Climate Volatility Index (CVI) using GARCH model and estimates the relationship between CVI and Japanese tourism demand for Korea using a tourism demand model, based on data from January 2000 to December 2013. Time lag is applied based on a decision making process regarding travel destinations. The result shows that an increase in volatility of climate change leads to a decrease in tourism demand.

Abstract: Background and objective: Propofol is an anesthetic agent that is frequently used in anesthesia induction, maintenance and sedation. Propofol has severe side effects such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression. Although propofol is commonly used, there is no known antidote for its toxic effects. An approach to prevent toxic effects of propofol would be beneficial. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of intravenous lipid emulsion (ILE) therapy in the prevention of depressive effects of propofol on cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Materials and methods: Twenty-eight Sprague-Dawley adult rats were randomly divided into 4 groups. The saline-administered group was determined as the Control group. The second group was administered propofol (PP group); the third group was administered ILE (ILE group), and the fourth was administered propofol with ILE therapy (ILE+PP group). Systolic blood pressure (SBP), Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), Respiratory rate (RR), Heart rate (HR) and mortality were recorded at 10 points during 60 minutes. A repeated measures linear mixed-effect model with unstructured covariance was used to compare the groups. Results: In the PP group, SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels were declining steadily; all rats in this group died after 60 minutes. In the ILE+PP group, after a while, the decreased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels increased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels of the Propofol group were found to be significantly lower than those of the other groups (p<0.01). The mortality rate was 100% (surviving period, 60 min) for the PP group, whereas 0% for the ILE, ILE+PP and Control groups. Conclusion: Our results suggest that undesirable side effects that can be seen after propofol application such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression might be prevented by using ILE therapy.

A diagnostic method is presented for analysing the large-scale behaviour of the Met Office Unified Model, which is a comprehensive atmospheric model used for weather and climate prediction. Outside the boundary layer, on scales larger than the radius of deformation, semigeostrophic theory will give an accurate approximation to the model evolution. In particular, the ageostrophic circulation required to maintain geostrophic and hydrostatic balance against prescribed forcing and a rate of change of the geostrophic pressure can be calculated. In the tropics the balance condition degenerates to the weak temperature gradient approximation. Within the boundary layer the semigeostriptic approximation has to be used because friction and rotation are equally important. Assuming the calculated pressure tendency and ageotriptic circulation match the observed model behaviour, the influence of the large-scale state and the nature of the forcing on the model response can be deduced in a straightforward way. This process is illustrated by comparing predictions of the ageotriptic circulation from the theory and the model. It is then used to show that the effects of latent heat release can be included by modifying the static stability, and to show the effect of an idealised tropical heat source on the subtropical jet. Finally the response of the ageotriptic flow to boundary layer heating in the tropics is demonstrated. These illustrations show that the model behaviour on large scales conforms with theoretical expectations, so that the results of the diagnostic can be used to aid the development of further improvements to the model.

The non-existence of a land ownership database in most of the developing countries moves the inhabitants to the occupation of public lands. Some of this situation are the origin to areas of informal housing, commerce and agriculture and in the end into new ​​informal settlements. Informal settlements become a serious problem in developing countries. The most common typology of informal settlements is that they are the population settled in public lands without any infrastructures and against the administrator's will. Thought this action the result in an uncontrolled land occupation process that promotes new informal areas without any proper built-up utilities, located in risk areas on the territory, barely ensuring the minimum requirements for a heaty living of the population and in various cases incentives to an informal economy. The process of build a cadastral map in informal settlement areas is a fundamental base to support the future transformation of illegal areas and to regulate the occupation of new subdivision planning and into the creation of new expansion areas. In this paper, it is presented a methodology developed to be applied to support a new register of land and to management. The transformation of informal settlement areas. The model to register the land tenure has been associated with allows the process application to multiple typology of informal settlements. The model to register land tenure has developed on a series of qualitative and quantitative data that determine the identification and classification of the buildings and its physical and functional description. The model was developed using Geographic Information System and with an initial survey of existing land titles of possession and public proposals to develop new expansion areas. A case study of the method is presented, where the land management model was implemented - Chã da Caldeiras in Ilha do Fogo an informal settlement in Cape Verde. The results are a great acceptance of the proposal by the population and local authorities and the starting of the implementation phase.

This research aimed to develop a causal relationship model of the behavior of a Thai rural community in disposing of used batteries. The variables studied were 1) the household latent variable (three observable variables); 2) the social latent variable (six observable variables); 3) the intention latent variable (three observable variable); and 4) the behavior latent variable (three observable variables). Six hundred households were surveyed using a questionnaire. The questionnaire developed was validated by seven experts and its reliability was established by testing it with a sample group. Results showed that the modified model do present a good overall level of fit. The House and social positively and directly influenced intention. Intention positively and directly influenced behavior. The theoretical and practical implications relating specifically to intention to the behavior in disposing of used dry batteries by households are emphasized. The modified model indicated eighty-nine percent of the variance in the behavior in disposing of used dry batteries by households was explained by the intention factors. The most direct effect on behavior was the intention factors with 0.89 of effect size. The factors with indirect effects on behavior were household and social factors with an effect size of 0.52 and 0.35.

The study aims to analyze the performance criteria of the GR4J model to reproduce high water flows in the Ouémé watershed at Bonou's outlet which has been vulnerable to climate change in recent decades. The methodology focused on the use of daily climatological and hydrometric data extracted from files of National Directorate of Meteorology, and General Directorate of Water; they were supplemented by those of SIEREM/HSM dataset over the period 1961-2015. The rainfall was regionalized using Thiessen method. The performance of the GR4J model was assessed with NSE, RMSE and KGE criteria. The results indicate that the study area is marked by rainfall variabilities and detection of two breakpoints (1968 and 1987) which divide the series into three sub-periods; these discontinuities have repercussions on the streamflow. It's found that GR4J model overestimates the streamflow during the low water period and underestimates them in high water. However, the efficiency and performance criteria NSE, RMSE and KGE calculated on high water flow rates are better in calibration than in validation. The KGE values are range between 83-85% in calibration and 56-68% during validation, which gives to GR4J model the efficiency and performance to reproduce high flow rates in the study area

SLEUTH Model (slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) is an important tool for landuse planning and land policy. To evaluate the performance of SLEUTH model, implementation of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is essential. The main limitation of SA in SLEUTH application is a lack of insight into model input self-modification parameters (SMPs) variation, namely, uncertainty involved in the model transfer metrics and model presumptions, which often misled the decision makers and model users. To address this issue, this study divided the forward process into two stages. Firstly, during the transfer process ①, the contribution scores of five SMPs were drawn, and parameters highly sensitive to model output were given. Apart from that, the recommended initial value for SMPs of 0.11, 0.2, 0.87, 1.13, 15, 1.01, 0.49 were found to be subordinated to such a heterogeneous urban area simulation. Secondly, during the transfer process ②, SMP caused imagery metrics indicated the disparity between parameters with Fixed Reference and with Successive Reference. Reversely, it derives reasonable threshold for the best fit values of five prediction coefficients’ initialization by comparing the real image with the predicted one. The framework of SLEUTH model transfer mechanism not only could distinguish highly sensitive SMPs with higher contribution scores, but also could give parametric analysis for simulation imagery based on metrics. The study was found to be a practical tool for quantization response of model input variables for modelling complex urban systems. So, this insight can help geographic information scientists decide how to find out the inner forward transfer mechanism of SLEUTH model for further make good use of it and improve the model.

Migrations are much more important than currently recognised, for explaining important patterns observed in the European archaeology record – according to this archaeology led model. At a high level, they explain the introduction of different farming, monument building, the spread of metalworking and patterns of trade and exchange. This paper presents an archaeogenetic model based on a strategic review of the Neolithic and Chalcolithic archaeology of Europe, alongside a review of recently published ancient DNA data. The model is archaeology led. It takes archaeology themes and proposes migratory events to explain them. Ancient DNA data and further archaeology evidence is then used to test these proposed migrations- to reject or refine them. The model introduces a new and more strategic way of looking at archaeological cultures - that updates early 20th century approaches to studying archaeology cultures, and integrates with the detailed ‘post processual’ studies of the late 20th Century. The model consists of seven maps – each showing multiple migration events – with key evidence to support each migration map. It proposes a new category of a ‘Black Sea’ related population that makes a major genetic contribution to the Middle Neolithic of Europe. The proposed migrations provide an explanation for the observed patterns of archaeology, for example: • multiple Neolithic migrations that introduced, farming and metalworking into Europe; • a major ‘Black Sea’ related ‘Middle Neolithic’ migration that carried advanced knowledge of astronomy that can be recognised in a variety of types of monument from the Neolithic through to Bronze Age Europe; and, • migrations of related cultures (‘supercultures’) that explain patterns of trade and exchange in Bronze Age western Europe. The model also provides ancient DNA and archaeology based support for the key aspects of Childe’s ‘dawn of civilisation’ in Europe and Egypt and Gimbutas’ ‘Old Europe’ and “three waves of migration from the Steppe”.

This paper proposes a novel model for a PV cell with parameters variance dependency on temperature and irradiance included. The model relies on commercial available data, calculates the cell parameters for standard conditions and then extrapolates them for the whole operating range. An up-to-date review of the PV modeling is also included with series and parallel parasitic resistance values and dependencies discussed. The parameters variance is analyzed and included in the proposed PV model, where the self-heating phenomenon is also considered. Each parameter variance is compared to the results from different authors. The model includes only standard components and can be run on any SPICE-based simulator. Unlike other approaches that consider the internal temperature as a parameter, our proposal relies on air temperature as an input and computes the actual internal temperature accordingly. Finally, the model is validated via experiments and comparisons to similar approaches are provided.

As a high fatal disease, fat embolism syndrome is complication, which brought great pain to patient and their family served as a serious social burden. The mechanism of FES remains unclear. Autophagy controls the cell survival and homeostasis by removing the mis-folded proteins and damaged organelles as well as intracellular pathogens through a lysosomal degradation pathway. Increasing research documented that autophagy was wildly involved in variety of human diseases and had huge therapeutic potential. In our study, we first established the rat model of FES with the liquid fat by tail vein injection. We observed the up-regulated MPO expression and activity, increased Wet-to-Dry (W/D) lung weight, promoted quantity of fat granules, and the dominant disorder in the lung rat model of FES, compared to the control group. These observations demonstrated that we successfully build the rat model of FES. Then, we sought to dissect the role of the autophagy in the rat model of FES. The western blots analysis showed that the autophagy was inhibited in the rat model of FES constructed with liquid fat. Furthermore, Rapamycin could restore the repression of autophagy in rat model of FES. These investigations illustrated that autophagy was involved in FES. In addition, our experiments showed that Rapamycin could alleviate the symptoms of FES. Taken together, our study demonstrated the participation of autophagy in FES and further, as a potential therapeutic target, the modulation of autophagy could affect the symptom of rat model of FES.

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and the Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD) indices are used to assess the indoor environment in terms of human thermal comfort-discomfort. In this study, an experimental combined objective and subjective investigation of thermal comfort perception has been performed in students between 16-18 years old, in a non-air-conditioned school building. The objective approach included instrumentation measurements and data processing according to ISO 7730, whereas, the subjective one was based on answers collection following ISO 10551. The study is mainly devoted to the verification of Fanger’s approach in a building, in free running conditions, under a mild (moderate) climate.The comparison between instrumentation data and questionnaire results presented an underestimation of the mean vote, predicting a cooler sensation than the actual one.

The consumption of rice, which recently increases globally, leads to requirement for planning sustainable water management for paddy cultivation. In this research, SWAT model was modified to evaluate sustainability of paddy cultivation. Modifications to simulate paddy cultivation are 1) to equip with a new water balance model of impounded fields, 2) to add an irrigation management option for paddy fields, which is characterized by flood irrigation managed by farmers on a daily basis, 3) to consider puddling operation that influences water quality and infiltration rate of soil. The enhanced model, named SWAT-PADDY, was applied to an agricultural watershed in Japan as a case study. The modified model succeeded in representing paddy cultivation in the study area. However, SWAT-PADDY underestimated base flow in irrigation period. The cause of this is inferred that the modified model doesn’t represent return flow of excess withdrawal of river water. In conclusion, addition of the models of impoundment and management practices in paddy fields to SWAT improved field scale simulation of water balance and irrigation in paddy fields. However, further improvement of the model on irrigation return flow process is needed to better predict hydrology of watersheds dominated by paddy irrigation.

Distributed/semi-distributed models are considered to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the data input. In this paper, we take a small catchment in high urbanized Yangtze River Delta, Qinhuai catchment as study area, to analyze the impact of spatial resolution of precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET) on the long-term runoff and flood runoff process. The data source includes the TRMM precipitation data, FEWS download PET data, and the interpolated metrological station data. GIS/RS technique was used to collect and pre-process the geographical, precipitation and PET series, which were then served as the input of CREST (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage) model to simulate the runoff process. The results clearly showed that, the CREST model is applicable to the Qinhuai catchment; the spatial resolution of precipitation had strong influence on the modelled runoff results and the metrological precipitation data cannot be substituted by the TRMM data in small catchment; the CREST model was not sensitive to the spatial resolution of the PET data, while the estimation fourmula of the PET data was correlated with the model quality. This paper focused on the small urbanized catchment, suggesting the influential explanatory variables for the model performance, and providing reliable reference for the study in similar area.

In this work model of mirror elements equilibrium of the micromechanical components is developed, the behavior analysis of the mirror element of micromechanical mirrors in case changing of control voltages of electrostatic actuators is carried out, an expression for determining the maximum value of deflection voltage at which the snap-down effect will take the following form is obtained in case of the influence of the coefficient of the electrostatic rigidity of electrostatic actuators. The developed equilibrium model of mirror elements and the obtained results of modeling can be used at design of micromechanical mirrors with internal suspensions.

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.

Natural gas hydrate, also known as combustible ice and mainly composed of methane, it is identified as the potential clean energy in the 21th century. Due to its large reserves, gas hydrate can ease problems caused by energy resource shortage and has gained attention around the world. In this paper, we focus on the exploration and development of gas hydrate as well as discussing its status and future development trend in China and abroad, then we analyze its opportunities and challenges in China from four aspects: resource, technology, economy and police with five forces model and PEST method. The results show, China has abundance gas hydrate resource; however the backward technologies and inadequate investment has seriously hindered the future development of gas hydrate, so China should establish relevant cooperation framework and intuitional arrangement to attract more investment as well as breaking through technical difficulties to make gas hydrate commercialization as soon as possible.

The recent demand for reducing pollutant and CO2 emissions from internal combustion engines has created an urgent need for the development of ultra-lean burn engines that ensure combus-tion stability and reducing knocking tendency. One of the most promising methods is the Pre-chamber Spark Ignition (PCSI) system, where a jet of high-energy reactive gases, produced by pilot combustion in a pre-chamber, ignites the main combustion event in the cylinder. Given the intricate phenomena inherent to PCSI systems, conducting 3D CFD studies is imperative for a comprehensive analysis and optimal design. Furthermore, the detailed CFD model, combined with the calibrated 0-D/1-D model, is anticipated to yield a significant amount of new data that would be difficult to obtain through experimental approaches, making it essential for advancing our understanding and optimization of these systems. However, recently published papers re-port that some state-of-the-art models developed for conventional SI operation may not be pre-dictive under the challenging conditions of TJI systems, particularly under lean conditions. This review elucidates the reasons behind the widespread adoption of CFD in the optimal design of PCSI engines. It presents significant examples and delves into the potential and challenges of employing CFD not just as a predictive tool but also as a design instrument for enhancing PCSI engine performance.

Here we mathematically model black holes and the early universe following dynamics similar to RLC electrical models, focusing on their similarities at the singularity. We use this mathematically modelling to hypothesize the evolution of an expanding universe as the result of a black hole collapse followed by its evaporation. Or model consists of several steps defined by: (1) the formation of a black hole following general relativity equations; (2) growth of the black hole modelled as a resistance-capacitance-like electrical circuit; (3) expansion of space-time following the disintegration of the black hole, modelled by RLC-like dynamics. In updating this article, version 2, we will expand by presenting three additional examples related to the theory of the generalization Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time and the theory of general and especial relativity. We will calculate the critical mass to produce a black hole in the LHC, the existence of a high temperature Bose-Einstein condensate and finally we will demonstrate the existence of a tangential force to the repulsion force in the disintegration of subatomic particles. In the update of this article, version 3, we will expand to develop two examples. First, we will present the relationship between M-theory, extra dimensions with the theory of the generalization of Boltzmann's constant in curved space-time. Secondly, we will propose the idea of ​​updating the Lambda-CDM model, considering the primordial gravitational waves to correctly describe the evolution of the universe.

The use of logistic regression models in data analysis and machine learning has expanded in recent years and has become the primary preference of researchers in risk assessment studies across a wide range of scientific fields. From the assessment of credit risk in financial institutions to the estimation of risk factors for traffic accidents or the identification of etiological factors for chronic diseases. All logistic models are natural extensions of the simple binary model, and their interpretation is based on it. Using the data of a cross-sectional study on the risk factors of traffic collisions, the two main extended models of logistic techniques, multinomial and ordinal logistic regression, are presented in the article in detail. Emphasis is placed on the use of ordinal regression since the outcome variable of the collision data is defined as ordinal measurement reflecting a latent continuous scale.

There has been a growing interest in incorporating psychological and neuroscientific knowledge about the development of cognitive functions in educational policies and academic practices. In this paper, we argue that the current knowledge about the interactions between these functions and their neurodevelopmental characteristics should also be considered in order to develop practices that could be better suited to pupils depending on their age. To facilitate this, we review current neuroscientific knowledge on the competitive interactions between two neural circuitry underlying distinct learning functions, their developmental trajectories and how they are linked to other functions such as cognitive control. The incorporation of this knowledge in education could help improve academic outcomes.

The move to a low carbon economy is very important for enhancing international competitiveness. The eco-innovation is the critical factor of the green paradigm. This study is designed to investigate deeply the determinants of eco-innovation of manufacturing firms in Korea by suggesting anticipated regulations, self-regulations, and industry-specific characteristics as external factors and open information sources as internal factors. The data used in the analysis is 1946 sample firms from Korean Innovation Survey 2010 based on the Oslo Manual. Using the multi-variate probit analysis and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression analysis, we have found out that the anticipated regulations and self-regulations have significant influences both on eco-process innovation and eco-product innovation, while industrial characteristics have no effects. The empirical results also show that the breadth of information sources has a positive effect on businesses in implementing eco-innovations. Our findings show that the Korean government should provide a good platform where firms can better understand the future trends of environmental policies, particularly policies on anticipated and self-regulations. At the same time, Korean firms should establish a voluntary system to control environmental activities so that they can improve eco-innovations through integrating external information.

Into the frame of the French TANDEM project (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modelling) Principia has been working on the development and qualification of two in-house CFD software’s: the 2D EOLE-SV (Saint Venant) model for simulation of large scale tsunami propagation from the source up to coastal scale and the 3D EOLE-NS (Navier-Stokes) model dedicated to tsunami coastal impact modelling. This paper presents a large range of test cases carried out into the frame of the project and dedicated to the validation of numerical codes in various tsunami wave conditions. The main aspects of phenomena such as wave generation, propagation and coastal impact are investigated on academic situations. A real case simulation is concerned as well, the devastating 2011 Tohoku event which is compared with in-situ data.

Major marine construction projects, resulting in the release of sediments, are subject to environmental assessment and other regulatory approval processes. An important tool used for this is the development of specialized numerical methods for these marine activities. An integrated set of numerical methods addresses four distinct topics: the near-field release and mixing of suspended sediments into the water column (i.e. the initial dilution zone); the transport of the suspended sediments under the influence of complex ocean currents in the far-field; the settling of the transported suspended sediments onto the seabed; and the potential for resuspension of the deposited sediments due to sporadic occurrences of unusually large near-bottom currents. A review of projects subjected to environmental assessment in the coastal waters of British Columbia from the year 2006 to 2017, is presented to illustrate the numerical models being used and their ongoing development. Improvements include higher resolution model grids to better represent the near-field, the depiction of particle size dependent vertical settling rates and the computation of resuspension of initially deposited sediments, especially in relation to temporary subsea piles of sediments arising from trenching for marine pipelines. The ongoing challenges for this numerical modeling application area are also identified.

A predictive approach to the phase behavior of four-component poly-mer-water-surfactant-electrolyte systems is formulated, by viewing the four-component system as a binary polymer-pseudosolvent system, with the pseudosolvent representing water, surfactant, and the electrolyte. The phase stability of this binary system is examined using the framework of the lattice fluid model of Sanchez and Lacombe. In the lattice fluid model, a pure component is represented by three equation of state parameters, the hard-core volume of a lattice site ( ), the number of lattice sites occupied by the component (r) and its characteristic energy ( ). We in-troduce the extra thermodynamic postulate that r and for the pseudosolvent are the same as for water and all surfactant-electrolyte composition dependent characteristics of the pseudosolvent can be represented solely through its characteristic energy parameter. The key implication of the postulate is that the phase behavior of polymer-pseudosolvent systems will be identical for all pseudosolvents with equal values of the characteristic energy, despite their varying real compo-sitions. Based on the pseudosolvent model, illustrative phase diagrams have been computed for several four-component systems containing alkyl sulfonate/sulfate surfactants, electrolytes and anionic or nonionic polymers. The pseudosolvent model is shown to describe all important trends in experimentally observed phase behavior, pertaining to polymer and surfactant molecular characteristics. Most importantly, the pseudosolvent model allows one to construct a priori phase diagrams for any polymer-surfactant-electrolyte system, knowing just one experimental com-position data for a system at the phase boundary, using available thermodynamic data on sur-factants and electrolytes and without requiring any information on the polymer.

This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the applicability and performance of two prominent growth models, namely the Verhulst model and the Montroll model, in the context of modeling tumor cell growth dynamics. Leveraging the power of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), we aim to assess and compare the predictive capabilities of these models against experimental data obtained from the growth patterns of tumor cells. We employ a dataset comprising detailed measurements of tumor cell growth to train and evaluate the Verhulst and Montroll models. By integrating PINNs, we not only account for experimental noise but also embed physical insights into the learning process, enabling the models to capture the underlying mechanisms governing tumor cell growth. Our findings reveal the strengths and limitations of each growth model in accurately representing tumor cell proliferation dynamics. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the impact of incorporating physics-informed constraints on the model predictions. The insights gained from this comparative analysis contribute to advancing our understanding of growth models and their applications in predicting complex biological phenomena, particularly in the realm of tumor cell proliferation.

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Panoramic and periapical radiograph tools help dentists diagnose the most common dental diseases. Generally, dentists identify dental caries manually by inspecting X-ray images. However, due to their heavy workload, or poor image quality, dentists may sometimes overlook some unnoticeable dental caries, which may ultimately hinder the patient treatment. The purpose of this study was to develop an algorithm that classifies the teeth X-Ray images into three categories of “Normal”, “Caries”, and “Filled”. Our study used a dataset of 116 patients and 3712 single teeth images for training, validation and testing. Images were pre-processed using a sharpening filter and an intensity color map. We used a pre-trained transfer learning model, the NASNetMobile, which served as the feature extractor and the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model served as the classifier. The training dataset had a “Recall” of 0.92, 0.90 and 0.91 for “Normal”, “Caries” and “Filled” respectively and the test dataset had a “Recall” of 0.86, 0.81 and 0.85 for “Normal”, “Caries” and “Filled” respectively. The classification of the teeth X-Rays was successful and can be valuable for dentist as the artificial intelligence algorithm can serve as a decision support tool to aid dentists when they need to diagnose dental treatment.

The purposes of this study are based upon the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the impact of past experiences of contract farming on selecting a specific type of contract farming in the future and then compare different psychological factors in the TPB for different potential contract farmer statuses. These statuses include homesteaders, farmers from cooperative farms, farmers from production and sales teams, professional farmers, and brokers. The impact of factors in the TPB for a particular contract type on potential contract farmers is further to compute. To this end, data are collected in three major sweet potato production areas in Taiwan. The results show that the farmers’ past contract farming experience does not influence the selection of the contract in the future. As for the selection of contract type, strengthening the perception and motivating the behavioral intention of contract farming for cooperative farms will increase the probability of selecting an unclassified sweet potato size contract. On the other hand, enhancing perceived behavioral control factors and behavioral intention factors for professional farmers and brokers is apt to have a relatively high probability of selecting those types involving the highest amount or the best price to obtain the best deal.

This paper aims to provide the smart grid research community with an open and accessible general mathematical framework to develop and implement optimal flexibility mechanisms in large-scale network applications. The motivation of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, flexibility mechanisms are currently a hot topic of research, which is aimed to mitigate variation and uncertainty of electricity demand and supply in decentralised grids with a high aggregated share of renewables. On the other hand, a large part of such related research is performed by heuristic methods, which are generally inefficient (such methods do not guarantee optimality) and difficult to extrapolate for different use cases. Alternatively, this paper presents an MPC-based (Model Predictive Control) framework explicitly including a generic flexibility mechanism which is easy to particularise to specific strategies such as Demand Response, Flexible Production and Energy Efficiency Services. The proposed framework is benchmarked with other non-optimal control configurations to better show the advantages it provides. The work of this paper is completed by the implementation of a generic use case which aims to further clarify the use of the framework and thus, to ease its adoption by other researchers in their specific flexibility mechanisms applications.

Financial Payment has evolved into mobile payment for easy access and convenience. Despite the benefits of mobile payment, the adoption rate is unsatisfactory worldwide. Therefore, understanding the customer's adoption intention factors is essential for both researchers and practitioners. This study examines mobile payment intention and actual use by adapting the integrated framework, which combines the Mobile Technology Acceptance Model and the Theory of Planned Behaviour with additional new constructs found to be related. The new model consists of 12 variables moderated by the individual's experience and is examined via a structured PLS equation mixed-mode methodology. Knowing mobile payment influence will shape the industry strategic decision and socially contribute to transforming society into a cashless society. This paper provides an opportunity to prove the relationship between technology variables and human behaviour concerning mobile payment adoption. In contrast, this study novelty adopted an integrated model that combines MTAM with the TPB.

In bioprocess engineering the Qualtiy by Design (QbD) initiative encourages the use of models to define design spaces. However, clear guides on how models for QbD are validated are still missing. In this review we provide a comprehensive overview about validation methods, mathematical approaches and metrics currently applied in bioprocess modeling. The methods cover analytics for data used for modeling, model training and selection, measures for predictiveness and model uncertainties. We point out general issues in model validation and calibration for different types of models and put this into context of existing health authority recommendations. This review provides the start-point for developing a guidance for model validation approaches. There is no one-fits-all approach but this review shall help to identify the best fitting validation method or combination of methods for the specific task and type of bioprocess models that is developed.

The new Post Accelerating Data and Knowledge Online Society, or ‘Padkos’ requires a new model of decision making. This introductory paper proposes a model where decision making and learning are a single symbiotic process, incorporating man and machine, as well as the AADD (ánthrōpos, apparatus, decider, doctrina) diamond model of individual and organizational decision-making and learning processes. The learning is incorporated by using a newly proposed quadruple loop learning model. This model allows for controlled changes of identity, the process of creating and the sense making of new mental models and assumption, and reflections. The model also incorporates the recently proposed model of quantum decision-making, where time collapse of the opted past and the anticipated future (explicitly including its time horizon) into the present play a key role in the process, leveraging decision-making and learning by human as well as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. The paper closes with conclusions.

Rubble stone masonry walls are widely diffused in most of the cultural and architectural heritage of historical cities. The mechanical response of such material is rather complicated to predict due to their composite nature. Vertical compression tests, diagonal compression tests, and shear-compression tests are usually adopted to experimentally investigate the mechanical properties of stone masonries. However, further tests are needed for the safety assessment of these ancient structures. Since the relation between normal and shear stresses plays a major role in the shear behavior of masonry joints, governing the failure mode, triplet test configuration was here investigated. First, the experimental tests carried out at the laboratory (LPMS) of the University of L'Aquila on stone masonry specimens were presented. Then, the triplet test was simulated by using the Total Strain Crack Model, which reflects all the ultimate states of quasi-brittle material such as cracking, crushing and shear failure. The goal of the numerical investigation was to evaluate the shear mechanical parameters of the masonry sample, including strength, dilatancy, normal and shear deformations. Furthermore, the effect of (i) confinement pressure and (ii) bond behavior at the sample-plates interfaces were investigated, showing that they can strongly influence the mechanical response of the walls.

The famous singlet correlations of a composite quantum system consisting of two spatially separated components exhibit notable features of two kinds. The first kind consists of striking certainty relations: perfect correlation and perfect anti-correlation in certain settings. The second kind consists of a number of symmetries, in particular, invariance under rotation, as well as invariance under exchange of components, parity, or chirality. In this note, I investigate the class of correlation functions that can be generated by classical composite physical systems when we restrict attention to systems which reproduce the certainty relations exactly, and for which the rotational invariance of the correlation function is the manifestation of rotational invariance of the underlying classical physics. I call such correlation functions classical EPR-B correlations. It turns out that the other three (binary) symmetries can then be obtained "for free": they are exhibited by the correlation function, and can be imposed on the underlying physics by adding an underlying randomisation level. We end up with a simple probabilistic description of all possible classical EPR-B correlations in terms of a "spinning coloured disk" model, and a research programme: describe these functions in a concise analytic way.

Structure from Motion with Multi-View Stereo photogrammetry (SfM) is increasingly utilised in geoscience investigations as a cost-effective method of acquiring high resolution (sub-meter) topographic data, but has not been thoroughly tested in gullied savanna systems. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of topographic models derived from aerial (via an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, ‘UAV’) and ground-based (via a handheld digital camera, ‘Ground’) SfM in modelling a hillslope gully system in dry-tropical savanna, and to assess the strengths and limitations of the approach at different scales. A UAV survey covered an entire hillslope gully system (0.715 km²), whereas a Ground survey covered a single gully within the broader system (650 m²). SfM topographic models, including Digital Surface Models (DSM) and dense point clouds, were compared against RTK-GPS point data and a pre-existing airborne LiDAR Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Results indicate UAV SfM can deliver topographic models with a resolution and accuracy suitable to define gully systems at a hillslope scale (e.g., 0.1 m resolution with ~ 0.5 – 1.3 m elevation error), while ground-based SfM is more capable of quantifying gully morphology (e.g., 0.01 m resolution with ~ 0.1 m elevation error). Key strengths of SfM for these applications include: the production of high resolution 3D topographic models and ortho-photo mosaics, low survey instrument costs (< $AUD 3,000); and rapid survey time (4 and 2 hours for UAV and Ground survey respectively). Current limitations of SfM include: difficulties in reconstructing vegetated surfaces; uncertainty as to optimal survey and processing designs; and high computational demands. Overall, this study has demonstrated great potential for SfM to be used as a cost-effective tool to aid in the mapping, modelling and management of hillslope gully systems at different scales, in tropical savanna landscapes and elsewhere.

With increasing global attention on carbon emission control, the carbon market has become an important tool for carbon emission regulation. As an important part of energy trading, the electricity market is closely related to the carbon market. Given the relative maturity of the EU carbon market and electricity market, this paper identifies key points of market volatility through the Coupling coordination model analysis, and uses the GPT large model analysis to analyze policy factors that have a greater impact on carbon market and electricity market transactions. The research results show that market-regulating policies and expectation management policies have the greatest impact on the degree of coupling between the carbon and electricity markets. The impact of secondary policies such as international cooperation policies and structural adjustment policies is relatively insignificant. Although the development of China's carbon market faces many challenges, reasonable policy interventions are expected to achieve significant results in the domestic carbon market. Finally, this paper also draws on analogy analysis to draw corresponding implications for China from the EU's carbon-electricity coupling policy promulgation.

In underwater clustering and benchmark networks, nodes need to reduce the rate and energy consumption of acoustic communication while ensuring synchronization accuracy. In large-scale networks, the improvement of the efficiency of existing network time synchronization often relies on optimization of topological structures, and the improvement in efficiency within local areas is limited. This paper proposes a method to synchronize underwater time using the probability graph model. The method utilizes the positional and motion status information of sensor networks to construct a factor graph model for distributed network synchronization. By simplifying the marginal probability density function of the system clock difference, it can quickly calculate the clock difference parameters of nodes, thereby effectively improving the synchronization efficiency. Experimental results show that the method can complete global time synchronization within a cycle while achieving a clock difference correction accuracy higher than seconds, significantly optimizing the synchronization period and efficiency, and reducing the energy consumption of acoustic communication.

This study introduces an ensemble model designed for real-time monitoring of bedridden patients.The model was developed using a unique dataset, specifically acquired for this study, that captures six typical movements. The dataset was balanced using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique, resulting in a diverse distribution of movement types. Three models were evaluated: a Decision Tree Regressor, a Gradient Boosting Regressor, and a Bagging Regressor. The Decision Tree Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.892 and an R2 score of 1.0 on the training dataset, and 0.939 on the test dataset. The Boosting Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.908 and an R2 score of 0.99 on the training dataset, and 0.943 on the test dataset. The Bagging Regressor was selected due to its superior performance and trade-offs such as computational cost and scalability. It achieved an accuracy of 0.950, an R2 score of 0.996 for the training data, and an R2 score of 0.959 for the test data. The study also employs K-Fold cross-validation and learning curves to validate the robustness of the Bagging Regressor model. The proposed system addresses practical implementation challenges in real-time monitoring, such as data latency and false positives/negatives, and is designed for seamless integration with hospital IT infrastructure. This research demonstrates the potential of machine learning to enhance patient safety in healthcare settings.

Global warming has recently intensified research interest in renewable polymer chemistry, with significant attention directed towards lignin nanoparticle (LNPs) synthesis. Despite progress, LNPs industrial application faces challenges: (1) reliance on kraft lignin from declining raw biomass processes, (2) sulfur-rich, and condensed lignin use, (3) complex lignin macroparticles to LNPs conversion, using harmful and toxic solvents, and above all (4) lack of control over the LNPs production process (i.e., anti-solvent precipitation parameters), resulting in excessive variability in properties. In this work, eco-friendly LNPs with tailored properties were produced from a semi-industrial organosolv process by studying anti-solvent precipitation variables. Using first a parametric and then a Fractional Factorial Design, predictions of LNPs size and size distribution as well as zeta-potential were derived from a model over beech by-products organosolv lignin, depending on initial lignin concentration (x1, g/L), solvent flow rate (x2, ml/min), antisolvent composition (x3, H2O/EtOH v/v), antisolvent ratio (x4, solvent/antisolvent v/v) and antisolvent stirring speed (x5, rpm). This novel chemical engineering approach holds promise for overcoming the challenges inherent in industrial lignin nanoparticle production, thereby accelerating the valorization of lignin biopolymers for high value-added applications such as cosmetics (sunscreen or emulsion) and medicine (encapsulation, nanocarriers), a process currently constrained by significant limitations.

We propose the DIKWP-TRIZ framework, an innovative extension of the traditional Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) designed to address the complexities of cognitive processes and artificial consciousness. By integrating the elements of Data, Information, Knowledge, Wisdom, and Purpose (DIKWP) into the TRIZ methodology, the proposed framework emphasizes a value-oriented approach to innovation, enhancing the ability to tackle problems characterized by incompleteness, inconsistency, and imprecision. Through a systematic mapping of TRIZ principles to DIKWP transformations, we identify potential overlaps and redundancies, providing a refined set of guidelines that optimize the application of TRIZ principles in complex scenarios. The study further demonstrates the framework’s capacity to support advanced decision-making and cognitive processes, paving the way for the development of AI systems capable of sophisticated, human-like reasoning. Future research will focus on comparing the implementation paths of DIKWP-TRIZ and traditional TRIZ, analyzing the complexities inherent in DIKWP-TRIZ-based innovation, and exploring its potential in constructing artificial consciousness systems.

Podoplanin (PDPN) overexpression is associated with poor clinical outcomes in various tumors. PDPN is involved in tumor malignant progression by promoting invasiveness and metastasis. Therefore, PDPN is considered a promising target of monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based therapy. Because PDPN also plays an essential role in normal cells such as kidney podocytes, cancer specificity is required to reduce adverse effects on normal cells. We developed cancer-specific mAbs (CasMabs) against PDPN, PMab-117 (rat IgM, kappa), by immunizing rats with PDPN-overexpressed glioblastoma cells. The recombinant mouse IgG2a-type PMab-117 (PMab-117-mG2a) reacted with the PDPN-positive tumor PC-10 and LN319 cells but not with PDPN-knockout LN319 cells in flow cytometry. PMab-117-mG2a did not react with normal kidney podocytes and normal epithelial cells from the lung bronchus, mammary gland, and corneal. In contrast, one of the non-CasMabs against PDPN, NZ-1, showed high reactivity to PDPN in both tumor and normal cells. Moreover, PMab-117-mG2a exerted antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity in the presence of effector splenocytes. In the human tumor xenograft models, PMab-117-mG2a exhibited potent antitumor effects. These results indicated that PMab-117-mG2a could be applied to antibody-based therapy against PDPN-expressing human tumors while reducing the adverse effects.

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the Intervention Model on improving community knowledge, attitudes, and behavior related to ecotourism accessibility for people with disabilities in Ternate City, with a focus on addressing gaps in understanding and support through educational services and distribution of educational materials in the form of brochures with a participatory approach. The research design used a quasi-experiment involving 4,964 residents, where 287 participants were randomly selected through Cluster Random Sampling. Three tourist destinations were chosen as research locations, namely Sulamadaha Beach, Tolire Besar Lake, and Batu Angus Geotourism in Ternate City, North Maluku. The results showed that the intervention significantly improved community knowledge, attitudes, and behavior related to ecotourism accessibility, with a significance value (Sig. (2-tailed) of 0.000 <α = 0.05) indicating a significant difference between the experimental group and the control group after community-based interventions were carried out. In conclusion, this model has been proven effective in improving community knowledge, attitudes, and behavior towards ecotourism accessibility and can be used as a reference for similar programs in other locations to improve ecotourism accessibility globally.

There is a pressing need for tools that can rapidly predict PM2.5 concentrations and assess health impacts under various emission scenarios, aiding in the selection of optimal mitigation strategies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) like CMAQ are accurate but computationally intensive, limiting practical scenario analysis. To address this, we propose a novel method integrating a conditional U-Net surrogate model with health impact assessments, enabling swift estimation of PM2.5 concentrations and related health effects. The U-Net model was trained with 2019 South Korean PM2.5 data, including precursor emissions and boundary conditions. Our model showed high accuracy and significant efficiency, reducing processing times while maintaining reliability. By combining this surrogate model with the EPA’s BenMAP-CE tool, we estimated potential premature deaths under various emission reduction scenarios in South Korea, extending projections to 2050 to account for demographic changes. Additionally, we assessed the required PM2.5 emission reductions needed to counteract the increase in premature deaths due to an aging population. This integrated framework offers an efficient, user-friendly tool that bridges complex air quality modeling with practical policy evaluation, supporting the development of effective strategies to reduce PM2.5-related health risks and estimate economic benefits.

The present studies are specifically aimed at investigating the sensitivity of different dynamic stall models when exposed to various excitation frequencies targeted at the blade edgewise vibrations. The work is done on a modified version of the IEA 15 MW reference wind turbine employing a wind turbine design tool Bladed. The state-of-the-art dynamic stall models for wind turbine applications such as the ye model, Beddoes-Leishman (BL) model and the newly developed IAG model are evaluated. The beginning of the research work starts by evaluating different dynamic stall model effects on rigid blade section forces against known airfoil datasets. Then, the blade flexibility is considered to enable systematic evaluations of the blade flexibility influences in comparison to the rigid blade cases. It is observed that the range of the angle of attack grows depending on the excitation frequency and the adopted dynamic stall model. The critical excitation frequency range and the effects of twist distribution are then identified from the studies, which can be useful as a rough guidance when designing wind turbine blades.

A previous research showed the 1755 tsunami would inundate the Marginal Avenue, the railway and the low ground area of Caxias, Oeiras municipality, Portugal. Thus, in this study several proposals for coastal protection are presented. A new Lidar data of local topography allowed the construction of a more accurate DEM, including the representation of the streets of Caxias downtown, to be used in the tsunami numerical model. The results were combined with field survey on Caxias and other coastal areas of Portugal and Japan. The new calculations show the low ground areas up to 6 m in height area inundated by the tsunami. However, with the new proposal DEM the tsunami inundation is restricted to the beaches. The proposal includes the construction of a new sea wall with 7 m in height at Caxias beach, the increase in height of the Barcarena Stream levees and the elevation of the sidewalk at São Bruno beach, with a gentle slope up to 7 m in height. It is also proposed the construction of a third bridge over the Barcarena Stream for pedestrian ranging from 5 to 7 m in height that will serve as a gate for the incoming tsunami waves.

This study explores the comparative performance of FinBERT, GPT-4, and Logistic Regression for sentiment analysis and stock index prediction using the NGX All-Share Index dataset. By leveraging advanced language models like GPT-4 and FinBERT, alongside a traditional machine learning model, Logistic Regression, we aim to classify market sentiment, generate sentiment score, and predict market price movements. The models were assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC. Results indicate that Logistic Regression outperformed both FinBERT and GPT-4, with an accuracy of 81.83% and a ROC AUC of 89.76%. GPT-4 predefined approach exhibited a lower accuracy of 54.19% but demonstrated strong potential in handling complex data. FinBERT, while offering more sophisticated analysis, was computationally demanding and yielded a moderate performance. Hyperparameter optimization using Optuna and cross-validation techniques ensured the robustness of the models. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of these approaches in stock market prediction and presents Logistic Regression as the most efficient model for this task, with FinBERT and GPT-4 showing promise for future exploration.

Reliable and precise damage localization in mechanical structures is of high importance in the context of structural health monitoring (SHM). The acoustic emission (AE) method has already shown its excellent suitability for damage localization. However, low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are often prevalent in SHM, thus an increase in localization accuracy and robustness is still in demand. The present study faces this task through the integration of various model knowledge for AE source localization. The basis of the presented algorithm is the consideration of the dispersive behavior of elastic waves in thin-walled structures. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to obtain time-frequency representations of the signals, where frequency-dependent values for time-of-arrival (TOA) are extracted. Furthermore, the algorithm incorporates the knowledge that all sensors receive signals with the same time and location of origin, as well as the slightly different sensitivity of the theoretically equal sensors. The final localization results are achieved by a two-parameter grid search optimization. The algorithm is experimentally tested on a large aluminum plate with four piezoelectric wafer active sensors (PWASs) arranged in an array of 100 mm × 100 mm. The mean localization error of pencil lead breaks at ten different positions within the sensor array is used as an accuracy measure. It is shown that as more of the described model knowledge is incorporated into the localization, the accuracy increases. With the final algorithm, the mean localization error is more than halved compared to AE localization based on classical TOA estimation. Although the experiment described is conducted under laboratory conditions, the remarkable increase in accuracy suggests that AE source localization may be successful even at low SNR as typical for operational conditions.

As the primary secondary tree species in Northeast China, Quercus mongolica possesses significant ecological and economic value. This study employed the Biomod2 platform in conjunction with ArcGIS spatial analysis to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution area of Q. mongolica under current climatic conditions. Furthermore, it forecasted the distribution range and niche changes of potentially suitable habitats for Q. mongolica from 2022 to 2090, and pinpointed the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The findings reveal that the total potential suitable area for Q. mongolica covers 74,994.792 km², predominantly spread across Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions. The primary determinants of suitable area distribution were peak temperature of hottest month, lowest temperature of coldest month and altitude. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of Q. mongolica are anticipated to diminish to varying extents, with the distribution center exhibiting a tendency towards northward migration. Concurrently, the overlap among different climate scenarios is predicted to expand over time. This investigation facilitates a comprehensive understanding of Q. mongolica's adaptation to climate change, enabling informed adjustments and serving as a valuable reference for the preservation and sustainable management of Q. mongolica populations.

The ever-increasing industrialization of certain areas of the planet combined with the simultaneous degradation of the natural environment are alarming phenomena, especially in the field of human health. The concentration of Particulate Matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5μm (PM2.5) and 10μm (PM10), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) needs constant monitoring, as they consist the main cause for many diseases. Based on the existence of statutory limits, by the World Health Organization (WHO), for the concentration of each of the aforementioned air pollutants, it is considered necessary to develop forecasting systems that will have the ability to correlate the current meteorological data with the concentrations of the above pollutants. In this work, the attempt to predict the air pollutants concentrations in the wider area of Beijing, China, is successfully carried out using artificial neural networks (ANNs) models. In the frame of the specific work, a significant number of ANNs was developed. For this purpose, an open-access meteorological and air pollution database was used. Finally, a statistical evaluation of the developed prognostic models was carried out. Results showed that ANNs present a re-markable prognostic ability in order to forecast the air pollution levels in an urban environment.

The author previously investigated the thermodynamic properties of the one-dimensional Potts-SOS model on the lattice of positive natural numbers N in [Akin H, Phys. Scr. 99 (2024), 055231]. In this present paper, we extend that research by determining the Gibbs measures for the same mixed-type model using partition functions constructed on a second-order semi-infinite Cayley tree. By leveraging the self-similarity of the Cayley tree, we analyze the behavior of these partition functions and identify the regions where phase transitions occur. We pinpoint these phase transition regions through a stability analysis of the dynamical system associated with the model at specific fixed points.

Large-scale deep learning models have produced significant results in underwater visual image target detection. However, deploying these models on underwater embedded devices poses a series of issues and challenges. Firstly, underwater devices have limited communication capabilities and carry relatively short supply of energy, resulting in constrained computing power for edge devices. Secondly, the large scale of deep neural networks creates a conflict in power demands with unmanned underwater equipment. Thirdly, insufficient underwater light and turbid water quality will lead to degradation problems in the images acquired by the device. In this paper, we build an offline system to complete the task of underwater scene target recognition. This paper introduces several innovations: 1) The new YOLO-TN model is developed by compressing the target recognition model based on YOLO-V5. The model use a model compression algorithm replace the YOLO-V5’s backbone network with a lightweight network, then perform parameter pruning on the model detection head, while reduce the size of the input image. The model uses a Teacher-guided Neural Architecture Search method based on YOLO-V5, named as YOLO-TN. 2)A method for constructing and processing real underwater environment data sets is designed. The datasets are all captured using underwater unmanned vehicles in real underwater environments, addressing issues present in existing underwater datasets, such as unbalanced target volume and single-image environment. Experimental results demonstrate that the YOLO-TN model significantly reduces the model size while maintaining the original recognition accuracy. Furthermore, it achieves 28.6 FPS on embedded devices, which is 12 times that of the original model.

Billions of euros are invested every year by professional football clubs for the recruitment of players. This article presents the latest advances in the statistical modelling of the factors that market actors take into consideration to determine the transfer prices of professional football players. It extends to a global scale the econometric approach previously developed by the authors to evaluate the transfer prices of players under contract with clubs from the five major European leagues. The statistical technique used to build the model is multiple linear regression (MLR), with fees paid by clubs as an independent variable. The sample comprises over 8000 transactions of players transferred for money from clubs worldwide during the period stretching from July 2014 to March 2024. This paper shows that a statistical model can explain almost 85% of the differences in the transfer fees paid for players. Despite the specific cases and other possible distortions mentioned in the discussion, the use of a statistical model to determine player transfer prices seems highly relevant.

Based on the land use data of Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Nature Reserve in Sanya, China, in 2009, 2015 and 2022, this paper utilizes the PLUS model to predict the land use changes in the region in 2035 under three development scenarios, namely natural development, urban construction and ecological protection. The results of the study show that the area of building land in this region increased rapidly from 2009-2015, and the corresponding cropland, parkland and arbor forest land as a whole showed a different degree of decline, while the expansion of the area of manmade land, such as building land, basically came to a standstill after 2015. However, the mangrove area in this region has maintained a stable growth trend from 2009-2022. The results of multi-scenario modeling of land in this region showed that the area of building land, unutilized land, and artificial land such as parkland and grassland increased the most under the urban development scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of ecological land, such as arbor forest land and river and lagoon, increases significantly. However, there is no significant increase in the area of mangrove forests under any of the three development scenarios. At present, the task of “returning ponds to wetlands” has been basically completed in this area, and the space for large-scale expansion of mangrove forests in Qingmei Harbor is limited in the future, and the focus of subsequent work should be shifted to the enhancement of the quality and function of mangrove ecosystems.

Forest fires can occur suddenly and have significant environmental, economic, and social consequences. Timely and accurate evaluation and prediction of their progression, particularly the spread speed in difficult-to-access areas, are essential for emergency management departments to proactively implement prevention strategies and scientifically extinguish fires. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of advanced technologies for predicting forest fire spread in China and globally. Incorporating remote sensing (RS) technology and forest fire science as the theoretical foundation, and utilizing the Wang Zhengfei forest fire spread model as the technical framework, this study constructs a forest fire spread model based on remote sensing interpretation. The model optimizes the method for acquiring parameters and enhances algorithm accuracy. By considering regional landforms (ridge lines, valley lines, slopes) and vegetation coverage, this paper establishes visual interpretation markers for identifying hotspots within the spread model. Utilizing statistical data from pixels within the fire line zone transforms the methodology for predicting forest fire spread speed, resulting in greater accuracy compared to conventional fixed-point predictions. Finally, the model was applied to the case of a forest fire in Mianning County, Sichuan Province, China and verified using high-time resolution mid-infrared image data and previous research findings. The results demonstrate that the predicted fire spread area from this RS-enabled model is consistent with both high-time resolution geostationary satellite data and previous research outcomes, indicating high reliability. This model can provide crucial fire spread information to relevant emergency departments, enabling effective preemptive measures and scientific firefighting strategies.

This study evaluated changes over time in skeletal muscle atrophy, expressions of skeletal muscle anabolic and catabolic genes, and mitochondrial activity by skeletal muscle type in an adenine-induced chronic kidney disease (CKD) model. A CKD model was successfully established by feeding male Wistar rats a 0.75% adenine diet for 4 weeks starting at 8 weeks of age. Control and CKD groups were sacrificed at 12 and 20 weeks of age. Back muscles were analyzed histologically, and succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) staining was performed to evaluate mitochondrial activity. Gene expressions of myogenic determination gene number 1 and myogenin as indicators of muscle anabolism, atrogin-1 and muscle RING-finger protein-1 (MuRF1) as indicators of muscle catabolism, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivator-1-α as a marker of mitochondrial biogenesis were assessed. Type I and type II muscle cross-sectional areas (CSAs) were decreased at 12 weeks, but type I muscle CSA recovered at 20 weeks. SDH staining was lower in CKD than control rats at 12 weeks, but no significant difference was observed at 20 weeks. Increased expressions of myogenin, atrogin-1, and MuRF-1 were observed only at 12 weeks, but no differences were observed at 20 weeks. The adenine-induced CKD rat model appears to show changes in muscle atrophy over time.

This research aims to explore the integration method of deep learning and large language models in speech recognition to improve the system’s recognition accuracy and ability to handle complex contexts. Deep neural network (DNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer-based large language model are used to build an integrated acoustic and language model framework. Experiments on TIMIT, LibriSpeech and Common Voice datasets show that the ensemble model shows significant improvements in both word error rate (WER) and real-time factor (RTF) compared to traditional models. Especially in terms of adaptability to multiple languages and accent changes, the model shows superior performance. The conclusion shows that through technology integration, the performance of the speech recognition system in complex environments can be effectively improved, providing a new direction for the future development of speech recognition technology.

The intersection of pedagogy and business models offers a compelling framework for enhancing educational outcomes through strategic innovation and operational efficiency. This is the first study that explores integrating value-based business models into pedagogy, proposing four models: Value Positioning (critical thinking, AI-oriented), Value Delivery (actionable thinking, inquiry-oriented), Value Capture (analytical thinking, sustainability-oriented), and Value Propo-sition (creative thinking, project-oriented). These models aim to foster student engagement, op-timize resource allocation, and drive institutional growth, aligning educational objectives with market demands to prepare learners for future workforce challenges. For instance, Business An-alytics courses, under the Value Delivery category, emphasize actionable thinking. It secures low to middle-level jobs but lacking global decision-making power in value positioning for Finland and the UK. Integrating principles of customer-centric design, continuous improvement, and competitive differentiation, educational leaders can create responsive and impactful learning environments. Value-based business models enhance educational practices by providing a structured and quantifiable approach to improving teaching and learning outcomes. A symbiotic relationship between pedagogical theories and business strategies can lead to innovative educa-tional practices, improved student graduation outcomes, and sustainable success for institutions and countries. This alignment ensures educational programs remain relevant to current market needs and adaptable to future challenges and opportunities.

The goal is the optimal synthesis of the parameters of the control law for a nonlinear satellite attitude control system under constraints related to the saturation effect of reaction wheels. The maximum stability degree of the control system is considered as a criterion for the optimality of the parameters of the control law, and the absolute values of the control torques and angular velocities of the reaction wheels, achievable within the limits of the physical characteristics of the drives, are considered as constraints. The solution to the optimal synthesis problem is based on the transformation of the nonlinear control system model into a linear model, within the framework of the problem of global asymptotic stability of the control system is also guaranteed. The problem is decomposed into a subproblems of obtaining the optimal transient process shape in the control system and considering the constraints. A method of synthesizing the optimal transient process shape based on the criterion of maximum stability degree had been developed. An analytical method of determining the optimal values of the control law parameters, based on decomposing the normalized characteristic polynomial in the linear model into three identical factors had been proposed. A method with regards to the constraints of the control torque and angular speed of the reaction wheels, based on transitioning from relative to real time is developed. An algorithm for calculation of the transition scale from relative to real time, ensuring the fulfillment of all constraints in the optimal synthesis problem, is proposed. An example demonstrating the efficiency and simplicity of the proposed methods and algorithm for targeted selection of technical characteristics of the control system, considering the maximum absolute values of angular speeds and control torques of the reaction wheels, is provided.

Background: COVID-19 has a major impact on businesses, with employee absenteeism resulting in lost productivity and medical costs to employers as well as lost wages and medical costs to employees. The aim of this analysis was to assess the economic impact of workplace COVID-19 vaccination in the United States (US).Methods: A decision tree economic model, populated with US data for the working-age population, estimated the burden of COVID-19 in the workplace (symptomatic infections, long COVID cases, inpatient/outpatient care, absent days) with and without vaccination. Disease burden and impact of seasonal influenza vaccination was studied for context. Results: Without workplace vaccination, an average US business (with 10,000 employees), had an estimated 18,175 absent days from COVID-19, resulting in employer lost productivity costs of $ 5.08 million. Implementing COVID-19 workplace vaccination (at 70% US Healthy People target vaccination rate) prevented an estimated 3,132 absent days, saving employers $ 876,453 in lost productivity costs and $240,633 in medical costs. It also saved employees $ 182,196 in medical costs and $198,250 in lost wages . Seasonal influenza caused around 5,333 absent days, and seasonal influenza vaccination (at 70% coverage) prevented 1,675 absent days, saving employers $ 468,394 in lost productivity and saving employees $ 27,757 in medical costs. Conclusions: COVID-19 remains a burden to US businesses. Implementing COVID-19 workplace vaccination and increasing vaccination coverage rates for COVID-19 and seasonal influenza has the potential to prevent a significant number of absent days, while providing employers and employees with cost savings from averted disease and its consequences.

The overall comfort experienced by an individual in an n-dimensional space can be theoretically constructed using a mathematical equation, that relates the comfort experienced by an individual in a particular point in space with spatial points associated with higher comfort attributes and the desirable factors affecting the current environmental space.

It is shown that if there exists in nature a pair of heavy elementary particles each with a charge equal to that of the proton and with mass energy , then their direct interaction gives rise to a spontaneous fractionation of the two charges into three pairs of elementary particles according to two equiprobable channels, one hadronic and one leptonic. The leptons and quarks produced are in agreement with the first generation of the Standard Model of matter. Fractionation suggests the relative abundances of the elementary particles, introducing some questions about the possibility of the real existence of a currently unknown particle and its role in the formation of an apparent matter-antimatter asymmetry in the universe.

This study explores the efficacy of using EEG-based parameters to diagnose bipolar disorder. A synthetic dataset was generated, including both correctly diagnosed and misdiagnosed cases, simulating realistic clinical conditions. EEG features such as theta-alpha mean, beta band mean, and coherence measures were used to train a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. The model achieved a validation accuracy of 92%, demonstrating strong potential for EEG-based diagnostics. However, challenges such as standardization of electrode configurations and addressing equipment differences are crucial for broader applicability and validity of the findings in diverse clinical settings.

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Darknet53 and VGG16 pretrained models to develop a hybrid ensemble model named HybridPlantNet23 deep learning model for effective plant disease classification, using the publicly available dataset ‘A Dataset of Leaf Images’ from Mendeley webpage. The preprocessing of the dataset involved resizing the images to the respective requirements of the pretrained models to develop a combined datastore which served as the input. All experiments were conducted using MATLAB R2023b deep network designer interface. Model performances were evaluated based on the conventional accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. VGG16 achieved the highest accuracy (97.25%), precision (96.30%), recall (96.96%), and F1-score (96.55%), outperforming both Darknet53 and the ensemble HybridPlantNet23 model. Despite the advanced architecture of the ensemble model, its performance (accuracy: 95.37%, precision: 93.56%, recall: 94.20%, F1-score: 93.74%) was not significantly superior, thus highlighting scientific reasons behind this development. Recommendations for future works were provided accordingly.

Important tumor biomarkers, therapeutic targets, and mechanisms of tumorigenesis were discovered in animal models. Mouse models of malignant gliomas were represented by transplantable, chemically-induced, and genetically-engineered cells. The aim of the study was to investigate the morphological, molecular, and immunological characteristics of two original glioblastoma (GB) strains, M2 and M6. These are new, chemically-induced, trans-plantable tissue models of malignant diffuse mouse glioma. Tissues from M2 GB and M6 GB were transplanted into immunocompetent C57BL/6 mice. The clinical manifestations of M2 GB and M6 GB growth in mice include motility disorders, cachexia, and priapism. Morphologically, M2 GB and M6 GB are characterized by diffuse proliferation, cellular and nuclear polymorphism, high mitotic activity, and pathological forms of mitosis due to the aggressive nature of these tumors. Flow cytometry showed that CD3+ T lymphocytes (~32%) and F4/80+ macrophages (~28-50%) highly infiltrated both tumors. M2 GB had higher levels of F4/80+ macrophages than M6 GB. Cdkn2a, S100b, Mki67, Pten, Vegfa, Hif1a, Sox2, Abcb1, and Gfap genes were overexpressed in both tumors. Cd133, Tp53, and Pdgfra expression was increased in M2 GB. High expression of Pi3k and Gdnf was observed in M6 GB. Expression of Cd44, Pi3k, Hif1a, Gdnf and Egfr was higher in the M6 GB tissues com-pared to M2 GB, while Cdkn2a, Tp53, Cd133 and Pdgfra were higher in the M2 GB tissue compared to M6 GB. The transplantable M2 GB and M6 GB tissue models have intratumor immune responses, clinical and morphological features similar to human GB, as well as gene expression patterns that are important for further studies on tumorigenesis. These models can be used to develop diagnostic and therapeutic procedures and study carcino-genesis.

This study examines the relationship between entrepreneurship and sustainable devel-opment in Saudi Arabia from 2006 to 2022, focusing on the economic, social, and en-vironmental dimensions. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates both short-run and long-run dynamics to understand how entre-preneurial activities influence sustainable development within the framework of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative. The findings indicate that entrepreneurship significantly contributes to economic growth through job creation and innovation, thereby aiding in the diversification of the economy away from oil dependency. Socially, entrepreneurial ini-tiatives have a positive impact on gender equality and social inclusion by empowering women and integrating youth into the labour market. Environmentally, entrepreneurship helps reduce carbon emissions and promotes sustainable business practices. Despite these positive outcomes, challenges such as regulatory barriers, limited access to finance, and the need for a supportive entrepreneurial ecosystem remain. Recommendations include enhancing entrepreneurial education, providing financial incentives, and streamlining regulatory processes to better support start-ups and SMEs. The study highlights the ne-cessity of addressing these challenges to fully realize the potential of entrepreneurship for sustainable development in Saudi Arabia. By providing empirical evidence on the sig-nificant role of entrepreneurship in driving sustainable development, this research offers actionable insights for policymakers aiming to foster a more resilient and diversified economy in line with Vision 2030. .

Very recently, a straightforward way was proposed in order to understand the galaxy and galactic cluster world without using the very elusive dark matter concept. This way was called κ-model [1, 2, 3, 4]. The main idea is to save the form of the usual physical laws, especially the Newton’s laws of motion when gravity is weak, but only by applying a local renormalization procedure for the lengths, distances and velocities. This local renormalization appears as a correspondance principle in the κ-model. In this model the fundamental physical constants remain universal, i.e. are independent of the point and of time. The κ-model is Newtonian in essence but a relativistic extension can easily be built. The aim of the present paper is to detail the mathematical formalism supporting i

The development of virtual models has recently been generalized in the field of complex mechatronic product design. Virtual models have various advantages such as: the systemic design approach, most often parametric, the implementation of extreme, expensive, and perhaps risky scenarios for the operation of the designed product, the testing of a large number of variants, etc. The main contribution of the paper consists of the development of an interface family called DeSeRoI (Dedicated Serial Robot Interface). Each member of the interface family integrates Simulink libraries and is created by the programmer in accordance with user requests. It follows that the interfaces composing the DeSeRoI family can have different levels of complexity depending on user needs and constraints. We are implementing a MATLAB-based application with user-provided configuration for serial robots in order to automatically visualize the kinematics data and simulation. Within MATLAB, two scripts are created responsible for generating Simulink models that compute the kinematics problem. One of the scripts (Main) saves information about the configuration of the robot and the other one (Generates_Simulink_Models) computes the kinematics problem. Different types of functions (software module) have been developed. Using these functions, the Simulink models result as modular entities. The automated approach eases user’s interaction and understanding of serial robots’ kinematics by performing the simulation procedure in a shorter amount of time and with higher efficiency, assuring a precise outcome despite the chosen parameters.

This the term "Bubungan Tinggi" (High Roof) in this study refers to the banjarese traditional house. A significant artifact in South Kalimantan is called Bubungan Tinggi. With its unique typology and anatomy, this particular building has evolved into an iconic structure that symbolizes the collective memory of the Banjarese people. This research aims to showcase the versatility of the Bubungan Tinggi design in modern architecture by exploring different transformation models. By applying various techniques and approaches, the study provides insights into how this traditional Banjarese character can be adapted for new house designs. The Bubungan Tinggi's transformation process reveals characteristics in its fundamental components, which are distinguished by their geometric objects. Experimental design is the methodology employed in this study. This methodology shows that a variety of transformation models may be carried out by introducing and identifying the Bubungan Tinggi, observing objects in case studies, using transformation techniques and their application, and creating transformation models. This research produced a variety of modeling results that illustrated new interpretations of bubungan tinggi's in modern house design. The incorporation of traditional elements like the bubungan tinggi in modern house design can help preserve cultural heritage while also creating unique and innovative architectural solutions.

⦁ Introduction: The challenging context, resulting from a post-pandemic scenario, wars, and various natural disasters, does not allow for the ideal assurance of efficiency in the Agri-food supply chain. ⦁ Research significance Currently, Agri-food supply chains and Reverse logistics show critical characteristics such as centralization, limited flexibility, distrust, bureaucratization, Border and Documentary Compliance and there are problems about efficiency, security, and safety Agri-Food. using the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework, with the purpose of achieving Sustainable Development Goals, promoting transparency, traceability, and non-linearization of the agri-food supply chain. ⦁ Methodology The methodology is combined, the first part uses Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) identifying 72 articles with the principal contribution in the literature. The second part combines the application of Supply Chain Operations References (SCOR) and the Blockchain Technology aiming to decentralize the linear Agri-food Supply Chain and Reverse logistics. ⦁ Results/findings The results revealed a transformation of the traditional Agri-food Supply Chain, transitioning from linear management to a circular one. Additionally, after application it is possible to know a new way to manage the Reverse Logistic with more decentralization, flexibility, traceability, and reducing the unnecessary activities, which include Border and Documentary Compliance. The originality of this research is the novel combination of SCOR Model and Blockchain showing a priority about the key activities that add value and come close to the Sustainable practices. ⦁ Conclusion / Implications Based on the results is possible to conclude that the synergy between Blockchain and SCOR Model enables a new way to manage the Agri-food supply chain, improving efficiency and reducing activities without value. Also, it is possible to ensure that the practices of Reverse Logistics are improved based on terms of cost and time, and the reduction of the exposition on the Defective Product Risk. ⦁ Social Implications This paper could enhance confidence in all operations of the Agri-food supply chain as there are numerous issues regarding the security and safety of food. Additionally, it will aid in diminishing unnecessary activities and inefficient resource consumption practices, thereby accomplishing objectives 2 "zero hunger", 9 "Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure", and 12 "Responsible consumption and production", along with their respective indicators. ⦁ Practical implications Regarding the practical implications, this research could contribute to analyses of the application of technology Blockchain in different sectors and identify the possible limitations when the main objective is to apply it on a big scale.

One important goal of research on heterogeneous catalysis for Fischer Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is to understand the connection linking catalyst morphology and its activity. Development of these effective catalysts highlights the potential for understanding the effectiveness of promoted supported catalysts and revealing their complex and dynamic effects in FTS. The metal-support interaction (MSI) is influenced by the physicochemical and textural features provided by the modified support and can directly influence the sizes of active metal crystallites, reactants and/or products mass transfer, dispersion, mechanical strength, stability and consequently the adsorption-desorption characteristics of the catalyst. Herein, this article explores the general strategies for modifying silica supports (achieved through doping, coating, or promoting the support or support precursor) and how these strategies can be manipulated to further alter catalyst performance and product selectivity by enhancing the amount of active metal species and improving the intrinsic turnover frequency (TOF). Furthermore, the review emphasises a new strategy (the inverse model of the silica support modification) aiming at overcoming the challenges posed by active metal coating or coverage, as well as pore blockages by promoters that occur during conventional preparation of promoted silica supported FT catalysts.

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a life-threatening condition that requires a prompt diagnosis and therapeutic intervention. Although serum troponin T and creatinine kinase-MB (CK-MB) are established biomarkers for ACS, it may take several hours to reach diagnostic values for ACS. In this study, we attempted to explore novel biomarkers for ACS with higher sensitivity than that of troponin T and CK-MB. The metabolomic profiles of 18 patients with ACS upon hospital arrival and those of the age-matched control (HC) group consisted of 24 healthy volunteers were analyzed using liquid chromatography-time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Volcano plots showed 24 metabolites whose concentrations differed significantly between the ACS and HC groups. Using these data, we developed a multiple logistic regression model for the ACS diagnosis, in which lysine, isocitrate, and tryptophan were selected as minimum-independent metabolites. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value for discriminating ACS from HC was 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00-1.00). In contrast, those for troponin T and CK-MB were 0.917 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.812-1.00) and 0.988 (95% CI: 0.966-1.00), respectively. This study showed the potential of combining three plasma metabolites to discriminate ACS from HC with a higher sensitivity than that of troponin T and CK-MB.

Bone drilling is a common procedure used to create pilot holes for inserting screws to secure implants for fracture fixation. However, dis process can increase bone temperature, teh excessive heat can lead to cell death and thermal osteonecrosis, potentially causing early fixation failure or complications. We conducted a three-dimensional dynamic elastoplastic finite element model to evaluate teh propagation and distribution of heat during bone drilling and assess teh thermally TEMPeffected zone (TAZ) dat may lead to thermal necrosis. dis model investigates teh parameters influencing bone temperature during bone drilling, including drill diameter, rotational speed, feed force, and predrilled hole. Teh results indicate dat our FE model is sufficiently accurate in predicting teh temperature rise TEMPeffect during bone drilling. Teh maximum temperature decreases exponentially wif radial distance. When teh feed forces are 40 and 60 N, teh maximum temperature does not exceed 45 °C. However, wif feed forces of 10 and 20 N, both teh maximum temperature exceeds 45 °C wifin a radial distance of 0.2 mm, indicating a high-risk zone for potential thermal osteonecrosis. Wif teh two-stage drilling procedure, where a 2.5 mm pilot hole is pre-drilled, teh maximum temperature can be reduced by 14 °C. dis suggests dat higher feed force and rotational speed and/or using a two-stage drilling process could mitigate bone temperature elevation and reduce teh risk of thermal osteonecrosis during bone drilling.

Driven by mounting environmental apprehensions stemming from the over dependence on fossil fuels in energy and transportation sectors, extensive exploration into alternative energy sources, particularly biomass, has stimulated profound research on harnessing the potential of computational and mathematical techniques. This comprehensive survey delves into optimal models and strategies, unveiling their pivotal role in the design of biomass gasification processes.of hydrogen through biomass gasification. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the computational and mathematical techniques employed in optimizing biomass gasification processes, with a specific focus on enhancing hydrogen yield. Through an extensive literature review, various models and strategies will be examined, including thermodynamic analysis, kinetic modeling, reactor design, and process optimization. By uncovering the power of these techniques, we aim to contribute to the advancement of sustainable and efficient biomass utilization for the hydrogen-based future economy.This paper aims to provide an updated and comprehensive coverage of the investigations conducted on the potential of producing hydrogen from biomass through gasification. To achieve this, we incorporate the latest works that have utilized numerical modeling, simulation, optimization techniques, process heat integration, and co-generation in their studies. By encompassing these aspects, we aim to offer a broader and more in-depth re-appraisal of the subject matter. This will ensure that readers gain a holistic understanding of the advances made in the field and the potential for sustainable hydrogen production of biomass gasification.Through a meticulous re-appraisal and analysis of each subject, we can identify their respective strengths and areas that require further research effort. By thoroughly examining numerical modeling, simulation, optimization techniques, process heat integration, and co-generation, we can assess their effectiveness and applicability in the context of biomass gasification for hydrogen production. This analysis shed light on the areas where these techniques excel, as well as pinpoint limitations or gaps in current understanding. By identifying these areas, we can highlight the need for further research and development, enabling us to make significant advancements in biomass gasification processes and pave the way for a sustainable and efficient hydrogen-based future economy..

To achieve n-type doping in diamond, extensive investigations employing first principles have been conducted on various models of phosphorus doping and boron-phosphorus co-doping. The primary focus of this study is to comprehensively analyze the formation energy, band structure, density of states, and ionization energy of these structures. It is observed that within a diamond structure solely composed of phosphorus atoms, the formation energy of an individual carbon atom is excessively high. However, the substitution of two carbon atoms leads to the conversion of diamond into a p-type semiconductor. Upon examining the P-B co-doping structure, it is revealed that the doped impurities exhibit a tendency to form more stable cluster configurations. As the separation between the freely doped atoms and the cluster impurity structure increases, the overall stability of the structure diminishes, consequently resulting in an elevation of the ionization energy. Analysis of the electronic density of states demonstrates that the electron orbit of the B atom makes negligible contributions to the impurity levels during P-B doping.

Outliers seriously affect the accuracy in geometric model fitting. Previous works in coping with outliers involve threshold selection and scale estimation. However most scale estimators suppose the inlier distribution as a Gaussian model, which usually poorly meets the cases in geometric model fitting. Outliers, considered as the points with big residuals to all the true models, share common items with big values in quantized residual preferences, thus making the outliers gather away from the inliers in quantized residual preference space. In this paper we make use of this outlier consensus in quantized residual preference space by extending the usage of energy minimization to combine the model error and the spatial smoothness in quantized residual preference space for outlier detection. The energy minimization based outlier detection process follows an alternate sampling and labeling framework. After the outlier detection, an ordinary energy minimization method is employed to optimize the inlier labels, which also follows the framework of alternate sampling and labeling. The experimental results in this study show that the energy minimization based outlier detection method can detect most of the outliers in the data. Furthermore, the proposed energy minimization based inlier segmentation process segments the inliers into different models quite accurately. Overall, the performance of the proposed method is better than most of the state-of-the-art methods.

Rubella infection is typically mild or asymptomatic except when infection occurs during pregnancy. Infection in early pregnancy can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, or congenital rubella syndrome. Only individuals that are still susceptible to rubella infection during child-bearing age are vulnerable to this burden. Rubella containing vaccine (RCV) is safe and effective, providing life-long immunity. However, average age-at-infection increases with increasing vaccination coverage, which could potentially lead to increased disease burden as well, if the absolute risk of infection during child-bearing age increases. Dynamics of rubella transmission were explored using EMOD, a software tool for building stochastic, agent-based infection models. Simulations of pre-vaccine, endemic transmission of rubella virus introduced RCV at varying levels of coverage to determine the expected future trajectories of disease burden. Introducing RCV reduces both rubella virus transmission and disease burden for a period of around 15 years. Increased disease burden is only possible more than a decade post-introduction, and only for contexts with low current burden and high transmission intensity. Low or declining rubella virus transmission intensity is concurrently associated with both greater disease burden and greater vaccine effectiveness. The risk of increasing burden through vaccination only exists for locations with persistently high infectivity, high connectivity, and high fertility. A trade-off between the risk of a small, future burden increase and a large, immediate burden decrease strongly favors RCV introduction.