Daily maximum surface air temperature (Tamax) is a crucial factor for understanding complex land surface processes under rapid climate change. Remote detection of Tamax has widely relied on the empirical relationship between air temperature and land surface temperature (LST), a product derived from remote sensing. However, little is known about how such a relationship is affected by the high heterogeneity in landscapes and dynamics in seasonality. This study aims to advance our understanding of the roles of land cover and seasonal variation in the estimation of Tamax using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST product. We developed statistical models to link Tamax and LST in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China for five major land-cover types (i.e., forest, shrub, water, impervious surface, cropland, and grassland) and two seasons (i.e., growing season and non-growing season). Results show that the performance of modeling the Tamax-LST relationship was highly dependent on land cover and seasonal variation. Estimating Tamax over grasslands and water bodies achieved superior performance; while uncertainties were high over forested lands that contained extensive heterogeneity in species types, plant structure, and topography. We further found that all the land-cover specific models developed for the plant non-growing season outperformed the corresponding models developed for the growing season. Discrepancies in model performance mainly occurred in the vegetated areas (forest, cropland, and shrub), suggesting an important role of plant phenology in defining the statistical relationship between Tamax and LST. For impervious surfaces, the challenge of capturing the high spatial heterogeneity in urban settings using the low-resolution MODIS data made Tamax estimation a difficult task, which was especially true in the growing season.

The present study analyses the influence of scratches and fatigue on the mechanical characteristics of aluminium alloys commonly used in the aviation industry: 2024-T4, 6061-T4, 6061-T4 uncoated, 6061-T6 uncoated, 7075-T0, and 7076-T6. 120 specimens were used for the study. Out of these, 60 samples were scratched, and the other 60 samples were also scratched under the same circumstances and then subjected to low-cycle fatigue (LCF) before undergoing the tensile test. Based on the statistical examination of the measured data, mathematical prediction models have been established. Compared to their unscratched counterparts, the results indicate a significant decrease in the mechanical properties of both scratched and scratched-fatigued sample sets. The LCF pre-treatment contributes to the negative impacts of scratches, resulting in a reduced value for the ultimate tensile strength and elongation at break. The results conclude that surface integrity plays an essential role in preserving aircraft components' structural strength.

We investigate the impact of aging on exchangeable inter-arrival times in mixed renewal processes, exploring its implications for reliability and survival analysis. In this study, first, we revisit the definition of renewal point processes, where inter-event time intervals are considered as exchangeable non-negative random variables. Then, we define the concept of statistical aging as latency in the observational process of event counting. Latency affects event detection but preserves exchangeability. However, it may alter the statistical properties of inter-event time intervals. Our analytical and numerical assessments highlight the significance of aging in exchangeable lifetimes, offering insights into key metrics such as the failure survival function, renewal function, and hazard rate function. Through archetypal examples and empirical findings, we illustrate the implications of aging on renewal processes. In particular, employing a Bayesian perspective, we analyze high-frequency currency exchange rate data to assess the impact of aging on volatility risk evaluation. This study contributes novel insights to the literature of renewal theory and survival analysis, emphasizing the role of latency aging in stochastic point processes under exchangeability assumption.

The current study was formulated with the aim of assessing the impact of the Extent of Drug addiction on the Family environment and interventions for drug-addicted youth in rural areas of Dir Lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The study comprised a dependent variable (Extent of Drug addiction) and an independent variable (Family Environment). A sample size of 266 was randomly selected for primary data collection through structured interviews. The collected information was evaluated through descriptive analysis (frequency and percentage distribution) and inferential analysis, specifically utilizing the Chi-square Statistical Test. The study concluded that drug addiction among youth has an adverse impact on the family environment, leading to instability and violent behavior. Further, families of drug-addicted youth experience a high level of dissatisfaction in relationships, often culminating in divorce. Similarly, the families of drug-addicted are characterized by low cohesion, role conflict, and tolerance. Thus, the government should formulate polices and strategies for the prevention of drug addiction, with speedy implementation across all institutional dynamics, including family. Moreover, It is also crucial to rehabilitate the lifeblood of a nation (youth) in terms of socio-economic, emotional and psychological growth. These recommendations were put forward in the light of the current study.

Open bidding is widely used in Sinopec's material procurement due to its advantages of openness, transparency, and cost savings. However, there have been many complaints about collusive bidding in recent years. Collusive bidding will pose significant challenges to fair competition and increase project costs for material procurement. Therefore, there is an urgent need for an analysis model to identify and prevent the collusive bidding. In this paper, we propose a statistical model for identifying collusive bidding using the coefficient of variation cv, the ratio of high to low average quotation rP and the deviation rate of quotation δ as indicators, based on the statistics of the historical quotations for material A. Through a case study of the framework agreement bidding for material B, we identified the collusion behavior of bidders effectively, thereby verifying the applicability of this statistical model.

Distributions with bounded support show considerable sparsity over those with unbounded support, despite the fact that there are a number of real-world contexts where observations take values from a bounded range (proportions, percentages, and fractions are typical examples). For proportion modelling, a flexible family of two-parameter distribution functions associated with the exponential distribution is proposed here. Mathematical and statistical properties of the novel distribution are examined, including quantiles, mode, moments, hazard rate function, and its characterization. The parameter estimation procedure using the maximum likelihood method was carried out, and applications to environmental and engineering data were also considered. To this end, various statistical tests are used, along with some other information criterion indicators to determine how well the model fits the data. The proposed model is found to be the most efficient plan in most cases for the datasets considered.

With the rapid development of urbanization, the chemical evolution of groundwater is significantly affected by human activities. However, the driving mechanisms of groundwater chemical evolution at different stages of urbanization remain unclear, severely impacting the implementation of groundwater protection. This study investigated the driving mechanisms of groundwater chemical evolution based on the long-term series (from 1985 to 2015) of hydrochemical data from 19 groundwater monitoring sites in rapidly urbanizing areas (Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China). The results show that the concentrations of various chemical components in groundwater gradually increase with the acceleration of urbanization process, especially NO3-, which has increased from 13.7 mg/L in the primary stage of urbanization (PSU) to 65.1mg/L in the advanced stage of urbanization (ASU), exceeding the WHO drinking water standard (50mg/L), indicating that the groundwater chemistry has been significantly affected by human activities. It is interesting to find that the main hydrochemical types have changed from HCO3•SO4-Ca•Mg type water in the PSU to SO4•HCO3-Ca•Mg type water in the ASU. It is worth noting that there were obvious differences in driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution at different urbanization stages. In the PSU, the driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution were carbonate and rock salt dissolution, cation exchange, and industrial activities. However, in the intermediate stage and advanced stage, the driving factors of groundwater chemical evolution were changed to carbonate and gypsum dissolution, groundwater over-exploitation, agricultural fertilization, and domestic sewage. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that future groundwater management should control the amount of agricultural fertilizers, apply scientific fertilization, and prohibit the discharge of various types of non-compliant sewage, while strengthening the supervision of groundwater extraction to reduce the impact of urbanization development on the groundwater chemical evolution process.

Black ginseng is a type of processed ginseng that is traditionally used as herbal medicine in East Asian countries. It is prepared from fresh, white, or red ginseng by undergoing a process of steaming and drying nine times. However, the chemical differentiation of black ginseng with different processing levels is not well understood. The aim of this study is to propose a new method for discriminating and quantifying black ginseng. Six ginsenosides from black ginseng were accurately quantified, and based on this, the black ginseng samples were divided into uncompleted and completed black ginseng. Ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-time of flight/mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF/MS) combined with a multivariate statistical analysis strategy was then employed to differentiate the two groups. A total of 141 ions were selected as analytical markers of black ginseng, with 45 of these markers being annotated by matching precise m/z and MS/MS data from prior studies.

Predictive processes and numerous cognitive, motor, and social skills depend heavily on sequence and statistical learning. The visuomotor Serial Reaction Time Task (SRTT) can measure these fundamental cognitive processes. In this review, we sought to answer whether repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) is suitable for modulating visuomotor sequence learning and which factors mediate its efficacy. We systematically analyzed the eligible records (n = 17) that attempted to modulate the performance of the SRTT with rTMS. The purpose of the analysis was to determine how the following factors affected SRTT performance: (1) stimulated brain areas, (2) rTMS protocols, (3) stimulated hemisphere, (4) timing of the stimulation, (5) SRTT sequence properties, and (6) other methodological features. The primary motor cortex (M1) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) were found to be the most promising stimulation targets. Low-frequency protocols over the M1 usually weaken performance, but the results are less consistent for the DLPFC. These inconsistencies (at least in part) may be due to the current frequency-based heuristics of rTMS effects developed for explaining local stimulation effects in the motor cortex. Although this review cannot provide an ultimate answer about the optimal stimulation and task parameters, it comprehensively discusses the behavioral effects of six factors that are crucial for designing future studies to modulate sequence learning with rTMS. Moreover, we conclude that synergistically combining functional neuroimaging with rTMS could adequately link the rTMS-induced network effects with the behavioral findings that are crucial to develop a unified cognitive model of visuomotor sequence learning.

Human motor planning combines such interesting aspects as modular organization in motor primitives and characteristics of stochastic optimality. Motor primitives aided in the description of motor skill learning. In this study, for the first time, an interpretation is proposed to explain how motor primitives are shaped in a stochastic optimality process.To this end, sensory information is assumed to be random variables at each moment. Theoretically, the results confirmed that the variability of a movement increased with passing time. As a result, motor planning should be performed in shorter durations to achieve an accurate movement. It means that a task should be divided into several subtasks at various stages of time. Moreover, theoretically, the results confirmed that motor planning is statistically optimal if the movement is planned in minimum jerk space, which is in accordance with what is reported in the literature. Comparing the proposed mathematical model with the results of experimental data in two different types of motor action (i.e., arm reaching movement and sit-to-stand transfer from a chair) confirmed that the proposed model can be considered a framework to investigate the effect of bottom-up information on human motor planning level. Further experiments need to investigate it more deeply.

Purpose: The use of smart devices has increased greatly in the last ten years with users reaching out to the possibility to do more with them especially in the networking front. In this context there is a need to understand the connection between users’ social demographic factors and their way to related to their smart devices. Objective: This study was designed to evaluate the senso of belonging of a community in order to evaluate intangible benefits that employees may gain from a more immerse relationship with their devices. Method: We used a dataset of 586 anonymous respondent of an existing survey designed for capturing the relationships that humans develop with their smart devices. In particular, we investigate the relationships with smart device and particular background variables of the respondents using a chi-square test. Results: The study showed that there is a significant relationship between users’ sex and smart device type and their dependency on smart device. Male tends to think that smart device (in general) enables them to connect with a larger community. At the same time, female using smart phones feels more connected more to large community than when using other smart devices. Conclusion: This study provided several significant findings that confirm and strength previous literature works on the subject. In addition, socio demographics variables (like gender) as well as the type of smart device present a correlation between the smart device users and their tendency to stay in touch with a larger community.

We show that the van der Waals gas does not exhibit just the celebrated liquid-gas 1 transition but also a quantum-classical one. We study the issue with reference to the LMC statistical 2 complexity and in relation to the order-disorder contrast.

In the article a statistical approach to the assessment of the emission rates discharged by the road traffic in a spatial context is proposed. It exploits an indicator, the Yearly Average Vehicle, representing the pollutant emission rate of the average vehicle belonging to a specific category, and considers the statistical variability of most of the involved traffic parameters: vehicle speed and mileage travelled in the considered time period. Finally, indicators, assessing both the most probable value among the possible emission rates and the extent of their variability range, are proposed. They may also be used to underpin decision making-processes, when the effects of different policies addressing air pollution issues, are to be evaluated. Therefore, they are suitable for the analysis supporting urban planning activities, with a view to addressing and mitigating the effects and the consequences of pollution due to the transportation sector of the urban context.

The world of science is drowned in a wealth of information. How to make sense of this wealth of published articles, blog posts and abstracts has become an important challenge given the importance of science to different aspects of societal function. At the crux of the issue lies the increasing trend where scientific discovery informs decision making at the societal level. One example, is the elucidation of the ozone hole to the promulgation of the Montreal Protocol in 1987, and documenting increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration led to climate action and signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Hence, understanding a research field becomes an important need for many decision makers across different sectors of society. But, the scientific literature is cryptic and esoteric, and presents a significant barrier to comprehension. One approach to ameliorate the problem is statistical machine reading, which provides the critical capability of identifying key concepts that underpins a research field. Such important concepts help provide an incision point to gain further understanding of the field and initiating further conversation about the field. This work sought to validate the concept of whether applying statistical machine reading to a body of literature comprising short blog posts and abstracts of published articles help in understanding the field of metabolic engineering. One important angle pursued in this research is whether the tabulated list of terms and phrases identified by statistical machine reading could be creatively analyzed to gain a deeper understanding of the research field. For example, the most frequently occurring terms and phrases could describe key concepts of the research field. Moving down in frequency occurrence would be terms and phrases that describe methodologies and approaches of the field. Finally, less frequently occurring terms and phrases may be tools and resources used in the research field. Results validated the utility of statistical machine reading in identifying important terms and phrases associated with the research field. But the small dataset of blog posts and abstracts used in this study severely hampered the identification of most of the key concepts of metabolic engineering, which is a fairly broad field of research. Overall, statistical machine reading shows utility in identifying terms and phrases that could describe a field. However, the level of understanding is closely tied in to the breadth and depth of reading material available, which meant that the methodology is data intensive in nature. Future use of supercomputing or quantum computing could help alleviate constraints of computational capacity, and help tackle the exponential rise in computational complexity as the size of the reading material for machine reading expands.

Seven agronomic factors (crop season, farming system, harvest date, moisture, county, oat variety, and previous crop) were recorded for 202 oat crops grown across Ireland, and samples were analysed by LC-MS/MS for four major Fusarium mycotoxins: deoxynivalenol (DON), zearalenone (ZEN), T-2 toxin and HT-2 toxin. Type A trichothecenes were present in 62% of crops, with 7.4% exceeding European regulatory limits. DON (6.4%) and ZEN (9.9%) occurrences were rela-tively infrequent, though one and three samples were measured over their set limits respectively. Overall, the type of farming system and the previous crop were the main factors identified to significantly influence mycotoxin prevalence or concentration. Particularly, adherence to an organic farming system and growing oats after a previous crop of grass were found to decrease contamination by type A trichothecenes. These are important findings and may provide valuable insights for many other types of cereals crops as Europe moves towards a much greater organic based food system.

Agile methods promise to achieve high productivity and provide high-quality software. Agile software development is the most important approach that has spread through the world of software development over the past decade. Software team productivity measurement is essential in agile teams to increase the performance of software development. Due to the prevalence of agile methodologies and increasing competition of software development companies, software team productivity has become one of the crucial challenges for agile software companies and teams. Awareness of the level of team productivity can help them to achieve better estimation results on the time and cost of the projects. However, to measure software productivity, there is no definitive solution or approach whether in traditional and agile software development teams that lead to the occurrence of many problems in achieving a reliable definition of software productivity. Hence, this study aims to propose a statistical model to assess the team’s productivity in agile teams. A survey was conducted with forty software companies and measured the impact of six factors of the team on productivity in these companies. The results show that team effectiveness factors including inter-team relationship, quality conformance by the team, team vision, team leader, and requirements handled by the team had a significant impact on the team’s productivity. Moreover, the results also state that inter-team relations affect the most on software teams’ productivity. Finally, the model fit test showed that 80% of productivity depends on team effectiveness factors.

Statistical data on officially registered cases of health care-associated infections (HCAIs) in Ukraine in the period 2009-2019 have been analysed. On average, 5089±756 cases of HCAIs were registered annually. Odessa region of Ukraine is the leading country in the number of reported cases. The majority of HCAIs cases involve surgical and therapeutic invasive interventions and perinatal HCAIs. On average, 78.0±5.8 % of HCAIs cases involved adults. The estimated minimum number of HCAIs in Ukraine was expected to be about 1 million per year. Official statistics on registered cases of HCAIs in Ukraine do not reflect reality, so the system of registration and investigation of HCAIs in Ukraine needs to be reformed.

3D surface scans were carried out to determine the shapes of the upper sections of (skeletal) crania of adult Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) from Great Britain. Landmark points were placed on these shapes by using a graphical user interface (GUI) and distance measurements (i.e., the length, height, and width of the crania) could be found by using the landmark points. These “GUI-based” distances were shown to be accurate and reliable in comparison to physical measurements taken on the crania directly by using a digital calliper. The crania of males were 6.85mm, 5.44mm, 1.66mm larger in terms of length, width and height, respectively, than females in our sample (P < 0.001), i.e., male otters had significantly larger skulls than females. Significant differences in size occurred also by geographical area in Great Britain (P < 0.05). Multilevel Principal Components Analysis (mPCA) indicated that sex and geographical area explained 31.1% and 9.6% of shape variation in “unscaled” shape data and that they explained 17.2% and 9.7% of variation in “scaled” data. The first mode of variation at level 1 (sex) correctly reflected size changes between males and females for “unscaled” shape data. Modes at level 2 (geographical area) also showed possible changes in size and shape. Clustering by sex and geographical area was observed in standardised component scores. Such clustering in cranial shape by geographical area might reflect genetic differences that are known to occur in otter populations in Great Britain, although other potentially confounding factors (e.g. population age-structure, diet, etc.) might also drive regional differences. Furthermore, sample sizes per group were small for geographical comparisons. However, this work provides a successful first test of the effectiveness of 3D surface scans and multivariate methods such as mPCA to study the cranial morphology of otters.

In this paper, we introduce deboost, a Python library devoted to weighted distance ensembling of predictions for regression and classification tasks. Its backbone resides on the scikit-learn library for default models and data preprocessing functions. It offers flexible choices of models for the ensemble as long as they contain the predict method, like the models available from scikit-learn. deboost is released under the MIT open-source license and can be downloaded from the Python Package Index (PyPI) at https://pypi.org/project/deboost. The source scripts are also available on a GitHub repository at https://github.com/weihao94/DEBoost.

Demographic processes directly affect patterns of genetic variation within contemporary populations as well as future generations, allowing for demographic inference from patterns of both present day and past genetic variation. Advances in laboratory procedures and sequencing and genotyping technologies in the last decades have resulted in massive increases in high quality genome-wide genetic data from present day populations and allowed retrieving genetic data from archaeological material, also known as ancient DNA. This has resulted in an explosion of work exploring past changes in population size, structure, continuity and movement. However, as genetic processes are highly stochastic, patterns of genetic variation only indirectly reflect demographic histories. As a result, past demographic processes need to be reconstructed using an inferential approach. This usually involves comparing observed patterns of variation with model expectations from theoretical population genetics. A large number of approaches have been developed based on different population genetic models that each come with assumptions about the data and underlying demography. In this article I review some of the key models and assumptions underlying the most commonly used approaches for past demographic inference and their consequences for our ability to link the inferred demographic processes to the archaeological and climate records.

It is important for enterprises to decide their environmental policies after carefully examining their future paths based on the relationship between the environment and the economy. This study focused on Japanese minimum administrative divisions (municipalities) and attempted to quantify the annual environmental efficiency of production activities within each division according to the theory of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA). This study leverages the assessment theory LIME2, which is an endpoint-type LCIA method developed in 2010 that integrates environmental loads for certain impact categories, such as global warming and land use into a simple indicator by monetary unit. First, annual environmental impact assessments were conducted for all Japanese municipalities based on statistical information that was reliable, verifiable, and comparable. Next, the environmental efficiency of productivity for each division was conceptualized by dividing the gross domestic product by the environmental damage amounts as calculated above. Assessment results for each municipality were placed on a map of Japan in order to visualize the regionality of each indicator. The findings revealed in this study will aid public administrators in their decision-making process with respect to environmental policies.

The tsscds method, recently developed in our group, discovers chemical reaction mechanisms with minimal human intervention. It employs accelerated molecular dynamics, spectral graph theory, statistical rate theory and stochastic simulations to uncover chemical reaction paths and to solve the kinetics at the experimental conditions. In the present review, its application to solve mechanistic/kinetics problems in different research areas will be presented. Examples will be given of reactions involved in photodissociation dynamics, mass spectrometry, combustion chemistry and organometallic catalysis. Some planned improvements will also be described.

We investigate the stationary and dynamic properties of the celebrated Nosé-Hoover dynamics of many-body interacting Hamiltonian systems, with an emphasis on the effect of inter-particle interactions. To this end, we consider a model system with both short- and long-range interactions. The Nosé-Hoover dynamics aims to generate the canonical equilibrium distribution of a system at a desired temperature by employing a set of time-reversible, deterministic equations of motion. A signature of canonical equilibrium is a single-particle momentum distribution that is Gaussian. We find that the equilibrium properties of the system within the Nosé-Hoover dynamics coincides with that within the canonical ensemble. Moreover, starting from out-of-equilibrium initial conditions, the average kinetic energy of the system relaxes to its target value over a size-independent timescale. However, quite surprisingly, our results indicate that under the same conditions and with only long-range interactions present in the system, the momentum distribution relaxes to its Gaussian form in equilibrium over a scale that diverges with the system size. On adding short-range interactions, the relaxation is found to occur over a timescale that has a much weaker dependence on system size. This system-size dependence of the timescale vanishes when only short-range interactions are present in the system. An implication of such an ultra-slow relaxation when only long-range interactions are present in the system is that macroscopic observables other than the average kinetic energy when estimated in the Nosé-Hoover dynamics may take an unusually long time to relax to its canonical equilibrium value. Our work underlines the crucial role that interactions play in deciding the equivalence between Nosé-Hoover and canonical equilibrium.

Vopson and Lepadatu recently proposed the Second Law of Infodynamics. The law states that while total entropy increases, information entropy declines over time. They state that the law has applications over a wide range of disciplines, but they leave many key questions unanswered. This article analyzes and reformulates the law based on the thermocontextual interpretation (TCI). The TCI generalizes Hamiltonian mechanics by defining states and transitions thermocontextually, with respect to an ambient-temperature reference state. The TCI partitions energy into ambient heat, which is thermally random and unknowable, and exergy, which is knowable and usable. The TCI is further generalized here to account for a reference observer’s actual knowledge. This enables partitioning exergy into accessible exergy, which is known and accessible for use, and configurational energy, which is knowable but unknown and inaccessible. The TCI is firmly based on empirically validated postulates. The Second Law of thermodynamics and its information-based analogue, MaxEnt are logically derived corollaries. Another corollary is a reformulated Second Law of Infodynamics. It states that an external agent seeks to increase its access to exergy by narrowing its information gap with a potential exergy source. The principle is key to the origin of self-replicating chemicals and life.

Phase errors in magnetic resonance (MR) techniques, including Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), pose significant challenges to data accuracy and interpretation. As MR technologies advance, the demand for more sophisticated phase correction methods continues to grow, enhancing diagnostic precision and analytical outcomes. This review explores the evolution of phase correction models, beginning with simple global phase shifts, progressing through traditional linear statistical models, and culminating in modern machine learning techniques—specifically, neural networks. We also examine a range of optimization functions and optimizers, including both MR data-specific and common statistical approaches, applied in phase error correction. Despite notable progress, challenges remain in developing fully automatic phase error correction methods, particularly given the absence of ground truth in real-world MR data. This review highlights key methods, discusses their limitations, and proposes future pathways, including ensemble learning, that could guide further innovation in phase error correction.

The use of entropy concepts in the field of stochastic electrodynamics is briefly reviewed here. Entropy calculations to date that have been fully carried out are discussed in two main situations: first, where electric dipole oscillators interact with zero-point, or zero-point plus Planckian, or Rayleigh-Jeans radiation, and second where only these radiation fields exist within a cavity. The emphasis here will be on the first more difficult situation where both charged particles and radiation fields are present and interacting. Unlike the usual exposition on entropy in clasical statistical mechanics involving probabilistic notions of phase space occupation, the calculations to date for both particles and fields or for fields alone, follow the caloric entropy method where the notions of heat flow, adiabatic surfaces, and isothermal conditions, are utilized. Probability notions certainly still enter into the calculations, as the fields and charged particles interact stochastically together, following Maxwellian electrodynamics. Examples of phase-space calculations for harmonic oscillators and classical hydrogen atoms are carried out, emphasizing how much farther caloric entropy calculations have been successfully utilized.

The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission ADM-Aeolus was successfully launched in August 2018 by the European Space Agency (ESA). The Aeolus mission carried a single instrument, the first-ever Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) in space, called Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN). Aeolus circled the Earth in a polar sun-synchronous orbit at about 320 km altitude with a repeat cycle of 7 days, providing vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds on a global scale. Exceeding scientific expectations, Aeolus, initially designed for a 3-year lifetime, provided global coverage of wind profiles for almost five years. In this long-term validation study, we assessed the accuracy of the Level 2B (L2B) Rayleigh-clear and Mie-cloudy wind products by collecting radiosonde data from three stations in the Brazilian Amazon: Cruzeiro do Sul (7.62° S, 72.67° W), Porto Velho (8.76° S, 63.91° W), and Rio Branco (10.00° S, 67.80° W). Statistical validation was conducted by comparing Aeolus L2B wind products and radiosonde data, launched daily at 12:00 UTC from October 2018 to March 2023. Considering all data collected during the mission period, Pearson’s coefficient (R) of 0.73 was observed in Rayleigh-clear and 0.85 in Mie-cloudy, revealing a strong correlation between Aeolus and radiosonde winds. No significant biases were detected, with values of -0.14 m/s for Rayleigh-clear and -0.40 m/s for Mie-cloud, fulfilling the mission requirement of having absolute biases below 0.7 m/s. However, when analyzed annually, in 2022, the bias for Rayleigh-clear was -0.95 m/s, exceeding the mission requirements.

Pragmatic trials aim to assess intervention efficacy in usual patient care settings, contrasting with explanatory trials conducted under controlled conditions. In aging research, pragmatic trials are important designs for obtaining real-world evidence in elderly populations, which are often underrepresented in trials. In this review, we discuss statistical considerations from a frequentist approach for the design and analysis of pragmatic trials. When choosing the dependent variable, it is essential to use an outcome that is highly relevant to usual medical care while also providing sufficient statistical power. Besides traditionally used binary outcomes, ordinal outcomes can provide pragmatic answers with gains in statistical power. Cluster randomization requires careful consideration of sample size calculation and analysis methods, especially regarding missing data and outcome variables. Mixed effects models and generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are recommended for analysis to account for center effects, with tools available for sample size estimation. Multi-arm studies pose challenges in sample size calculation, requiring adjustment for design effects and consideration of multiple comparison correction methods. Secondary analyses are common but require caution due to the risk of reduced statistical power and false-discovery rates. Safety data collection methods should balance pragmatism and data quality. Overall, understanding statistical considerations is crucial for designing rigorous pragmatic trials that evaluate interventions in elderly populations under real-world conditions. In conclusion, this review focuses on various statistical topics of interest to those designing a pragmatic clinical trial, with consideration of aspects of relevance in the aging research field.

Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is a significant cause of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly in low-resource settings. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for PPH using early risk factors and rank their importance in terms of predictive ability. The dataset was obtained from an observational case-control study in Northern Rwanda. Various statistical models and machine learning techniques were evaluated, including logistic regression, logistic re-gression with elastic-net regularisation, Random Forest, Extremely Randomized Trees, and gradient boosted trees with XGBoost. Random Forest emerged as the best predictive model for PPH across three different train-test data partitions. The important predictors identified in the study were haemoglobin level during labour and maternal age. However, there were differences in PPH risk factor importance in different data partitions, highlighting the need for further investigation. These findings contribute to understanding PPH risk factors, highlight the importance of considering different data partitions and implementing cross-validation in predictive modelling, and emphasise the value of identifying the appropriate prediction model for the application. Effective PPH pre-diction models are essential for improving maternal health outcomes on a global scale. This study provides valuable insights for healthcare providers to develop predictive models for PPH to identify high-risk women and implement targeted interventions

Malocclusions have a continuously increasing prevalence from a generation to another as a result of climate changes, soil, atmosphere and water pollution. All of these aspects have unfavorable consequences on the nutritional scheme. Thus, nutrition together with other etiopathogenic factors contribute to complex alterations in the somatic development of the entire organism and, implicitly, of the cephalic extremity. The study group included 4147 children from randomly selected schools from Vâlcea County, Romania. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of malocclusions in schoolchildren from Vâlcea County, Romania, according to the three main classes of malocclusions (according to Angle’s classification), age groups (from 6 to 10 years old and from 11 to 14 years old), gender (male and female) and place of origin (rural and urban). For Angle class I malocclusions we recorded the highest prevalence (48,78% from the total number of schoolchildren with malocclusions), followed by Angle class II malocclusions (45,85% from the total number of schoolchildren with malocclusions) and for Angle class III malocclusions we found the lowest prevalence (5,37% from the total number of schoolchildren with malocclusions).According to gender, we found the highest prevalence in female gender (29,90% from the total number of female subjects), while in male gender we recorded a prevalence of 27,70% from the total number of male subjects. Regarding the place of origin, there is a higher prevalence of malocclusions in the urban areas (29,16%). The study subgroup included 140 children randomly selected from the total number of subjects from the study group. They were included in a more advanced study. The aim is to find potential associations between the presence of malocclusions and various oral variables. Categorical variables were expressed as numerical values and percentages, and their association was evaluated with either the Chi-square test of association or homogeneity, or the Fisher Exact test. The acquired data were incorporated into a binomial logistic regression model to assess the likelihood of developing malocclusions in relation to the following variables: defective phonation, bruxism, frequency of teeth brushing, onychophagia, oral respiration, infantile deglutition, placing objects between the maxillaries, thumb sucking and salivary aspects. It is also aimed to compare the results obtained with similar ones from the specialized literature.

A new approach for predicting the geometrical characteristics of the mixing behavior of an inclined dense jet for angles ranging from 15° to 85° is proposed in this study. This approach is called group method of data handling (GMDH) which is based on the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The proposed model was trained and tested using existing experimental data reported in literature. The model was then evaluated using statistical indices as well as compared with analytical models from previous studies. The results of the coefficient of determination (R2) indicate a high accuracy of the proposed model with values of 0.9719 and 0.9513 for training and testing for the dimensionless of the distance from the nozzle to the return point xr/D, and 0.9454 and 0.9565 for training and testing for the dimensionless of the terminal rise height yt/D . Moreover, four previous analytical models were used to evaluate the GMDH model. The results showed the superiority of the proposed model in predicting the geometrical characteristics of the inclined dense jet for all tested angles. Finally, the standard error of estimate (SEE) was applied to demonstrate which model performed the best in terms of getting closer to the actual data. The results illustrate that all fitting lines of the GMDH model performed very well for all geometrical parameter predictions and was the best model with approximately 10% error, which was the lowest value of error among the models. Therefore, this study confirms that the GMDH model can be used to predict the geometrical properties of the inclined negatively buoyant jet with high performance and accuracy.

Matrix-variate Gaussian type or Wishart type distributions in the real domain are widely used in the literature. When the exponential trace has an arbitrary power and when a factor involving a determinant enters into the model or a matrix-variate gamma type or Wishart type model with exponential trace having an arbitrary power, is extremely difficult to handle. Evaluation of the normalizing constant in such a model is the most important part because when studying the properties of such a model, the method used in the evaluation of the normalizing constant will be the relevant steps in all the computations involved. One such model with a factor involving a trace and the exponential trace having an arbitrary power, in the real domain, is known in the literature as Kotz' model. No explicit evaluation of the normalizing constant in the model involving trace with an exponent and determinant with an exponent entering into the model and at the same time the exponential trace having an arbitrary exponent seems to be available in the literature. The normalizing constant widely used in the literature and interpreted as the normalizing constant in the general model and refers to as a Kotz' model does not seem to be correct. Corresponding model in the complex domain, with the correct normalizing constant, does not seem to be available in the literature. One of the main contributions in this paper is the matrix-variate distributions in the complex domain belonging to Gaussian type, gamma type, type-1 and type-2 beta type when the exponential trace has an arbitrary power. All these models are believed to be new. A second main contribution is the explicit evaluation of the the normalizing constants, in the real and complex domains especially in the complex domain, in a matrix-variate model involving a determinant and a trace as multiplicative factors and at the same time the exponential trace having an arbitrary power. Another main contribution is the introduction of matrix-variate models with exponential trace having an arbitrary exponent, in the categories of type-1 beta, type-2 beta and gamma distributions or in the family of Mathai's pathway models [1], both in the real and complex domains. Another new contribution is the logistic-based extensions of models in the real and complex domains with exponential trace having an arbitrary exponent and connecting to extended zeta functions introduced by this author recently. Some properties of such models are indicated but not derived in detail in order to limit the size of the paper. The techniques and steps used at various stages in this paper will be highly useful for people working in multivariate statistical analysis as well as people applying such models in engineering problems, communication theory, quantum physics and related areas, apart from statistical applications.

Nickel superalloys occupy a reasonably broad niche in the industry. One of this group's most common and well-known alloys is Inconel 718. Parts from Inconel 718 are used in aerospace, energy, automotive, and some other vital industries, which creates a demand for research and improvement of the machining conditions of this alloy. This article is devoted to the systematization and generalization of the accumulated experience of machining of Inconel 718 at turning operation. The research methodology is based on the Pareto distribution. In the study, more than 50 articles devoted to turning Inconel 718 were analyzed. The tool materials, methods, and types of coating used in turning Inconel 718 were analyzed. Finite element method modeling of processing processes has been considered. The trends in the selection of cutting parameters and the geometry of the cutting tool and finite element method modeling of processing processes have been considered. Lacuna for promising future research was formulated.

Monte Carlo Filtering (MCF) is one of the methods of Experimental Statistical Energy Analysis (E-SEA), which allows the correction of a negative LF (Loss Factor). In this article, a modification of the MCF method, called DESA (Diagonal Extension of the Search Area), is proposed. The technique applies a non-uniform extension of the search area when generating a population of normalized energy matrices. The degree of expansion of the search area is controlled by the Diagonal Penalty Factor (DPF). The authors demonstrated the method's effectiveness on a system that could not be identified in several frequency bands by the classical MCF method. After applying DESA, it was possible to fill in the problematic bands that were missing CLF and DLF values. The paper also proposes a way to minimize the errors introduced by using overly high DPF values.

We developed an artificial neural network as an air quality model and estimated the scope of the impact of climate change on future (until 2064) summertime trends of hourly Ozone (O3) concentrations at an urban air quality station in Tehran, Iran. Our developed scenarios assume that present-time emissions conditions of O3 precursors will remain constant in the future. Therefore, only the impact of climate change on future O3 concentrations is investigated in this study. GCM projections indicate more favorable climate conditions for O3 formation over the study area in the future: the surface temperature increases over all months of the year, solar radiation increases, and precipitation decreases in future summers, and summertime daily maximum temperature increases about 1.2 ∘C to 3 ∘C until 2064. In the scenario based on present-time O3 conditions in 2012 summer without any axceedances, the summertime exceedance days of 8-hr O3 standard are projected to increase in the future by about 4.2 days in the short term and about 12.3 days in the mid-term. Similarly, in the scenario based on present-time O3 conditions in 2010 summer with 58 days of exceedance from 8-hr O3 standard, exceedances are projected to increase about 4.5 days in the short term and about 14.1 days in the mid-term. Moreover, the number of Unhealthy and Very Unhealthy days in 8-hr AQI is also projected to increase based on pollution scenarios of both summers.

The purposes of this study are to analyze the groundwater quality of Ogallala Aquifer and evaluate the hydrological characteristics in the southern High Plains region of the Permian Basin, Texas. Levels of chloride, fluoride, nitrate, pH, selenium, and total dissolved solids (TDS) were analyzed through the years 1990-2016. A total of 133 wells were collected from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) which is an open database by the US government. Statistical analysis was utilized to evaluate the groundwater quality and propose trends. The average levels of the contaminants were compared to their respective Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Potential human health risks that each contaminant possesses were described. Possible sources of each contaminant were discussed with oil/gas activities, agricultural practices, and other human actions impact its conditions. This research provides important information for groundwater quality of Ogallala aquifer and contributes on understanding the response to development in the Permian Basin, Texas.

This paper presents multidisciplinary and innovative research concerning fighting against coronavirus through wastewater collection and treatment. Studies suggest that coronavirus exists in the wastewaters. Untreated wastewater is proved to spread the virus. Coronavirus is attacking people globally and shrinking the economy. This paper highlights the idea that the coronavirus shall be defeated with the help of wastewater collection and treatment as well. The question addressed by this paper is will communities defeat the coronavirus without well-collected and treated wastewaters? This research aims to display the role of wastewaters in the spread of coronavirus in cities and to require their collection. The methods to achieve the goals are theoretical surveys, case study strategy, mathematical modeling, statistical procedures, forecasting of future, and dialectical discussions. The findings of this research demonstrate the need for carefully collected and treated wastewaters to overcome the coronavirus. This paper gives suitable techniques to collect and treat wastewater such as wastewater stabilization ponds, bacterial reactors, and anaerobic ponds. The innovative idea of this paper, its suggested indicators to select a certain wastewater treatment technique in every city, and its outcome will assist the global community to fight the coronavirus more effectively.

Wenchuan earthquake that occurred in China in 2008 caused severe damage to a large number of electric substations. In this paper, Kriging interpolation method was used to calculate the impact area of the instrumental seismic intensity in Wenchuan earthquake, and to compare the intensities based on strong motion observation against the instrumental seismic intensities at locations where the observation data is available. The instrumental seismic intensities were calculated for the Wenchuan Earthquake at substations in the national power grid with voltage of 110kV or higher in areas of Mianyang, Deyang, Guangyuan and Chengdu. The cumulative Gaussian distribution function was then used to fit the relationship of the curves of the damage probabilities of high-voltage electrical equipment such as transformers, voltage mutual inductors, current mutual inductors, circuit breakers, isolating switches and lightning arrester with their instrumental seismic intensities. The damage probability density distribution curve of high-voltage electrical equipment based on the instrumental seismic intensities was obtained. The results showed that: (1) In the lower seismic intensity region, the mean instrumental seismic intensity was in good agreement with the traditional seismic intensity, but there was noticeable dispersion; in regions of intensity IX and above, the instrumental intensity was lower than the seismic intensity, but there was a lower degree of dispersion. (2) Among high-voltage electrical equipment, the transformers were most vulnerable to damage and they had some damage even under lower instrumental intensity. More damage would be produced when the instrumental intensity reached VIII or above; the second most vulnerable equipment was the circuit breaker, and the damage was most likely to occur when the instrument intensity was IX or above . (3) The damage rate curves of lightning arresters, current mutual inductors, voltage mutual inductors and isolating switches were relatively close to each other and the damage probability was the highest when the instrumental intensity was about X.

Wenchuan earthquake that occurred in China in 2008 caused severe damage to a large number of electric substations. In this paper, Kriging interpolation method was used to calculate the impact area of the instrumental seismic intensity in Wenchuan earthquake, and to compare the intensities based on strong motion observation against the instrumental seismic intensities at locations where the observation data is available. The instrumental seismic intensities were calculated for the Wenchuan Earthquake at substations in the national power grid with voltage of 110kV or higher in areas of Mianyang, Deyang, Guangyuan and Chengdu. The cumulative Gaussian distribution function was then used to fit the relationship of the curves of the damage probabilities of high-voltage electrical equipment such as transformers, voltage mutual inductors, current mutual inductors, circuit breakers, isolating switches and lightning arrester with their instrumental seismic intensities. The damage probability density distribution curve of high-voltage electrical equipment based on the instrumental seismic intensities was obtained. The results showed that: (1) In the lower seismic intensity region, the mean instrumental seismic intensity was in good agreement with the traditional seismic intensity, but there was noticeable dispersion; in regions of intensity IX and above, the instrumental intensity was lower than the seismic intensity, but there was a lower degree of dispersion. (2) Among high-voltage electrical equipment, the transformers were most vulnerable to damage and they had some damage even under lower instrumental intensity. More damage would be produced when the instrumental intensity reached VIII or above; the second most vulnerable equipment was the circuit breaker, and the damage was most likely to occur when the instrument intensity was IX or above . (3) The damage rate curves of lightning arresters, current mutual inductors, voltage mutual inductors and isolating switches were relatively close to each other and the damage probability was the highest when the instrumental intensity was about X.

Wind power output is highly dependent on the wind speed at the selected site, therefore wind-speed distribution modeling is the most important step in the assessment of wind energy potential. This study aims at accurate evaluation of onshore wind energy potential in seven coastal cities in the south of Iran. Six Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) were examined over representative stations. It has been deduced that the Weibull function, which was the most used PDF in similar studies, was only applicable to one station. Here, Gamma offered the best fit for three stations and for the other ones, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) performed better. Considering the ranking of six examined PDFs and the simplicity of Gamma, it was identified as the effective function in the southern coasts of Iran bearing in mind the geographic distribution of stations. Besides, six turbine power curve functions were contributed to investigate the capacity factor. That was very important, as using only one function could cause under- or over-estimation. Then, stations were classified based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory system. Last but not least, examining a range of wind turbines enabled scholars to extend this study into the practice and prioritize development of stations considering budget limits.

The effect of sensitivity points (sequence order and position of every element) of sequences following comparative optinalysis under two proposed mechanisms, the paranodic and synodic skewization, was studied to develop a modeling approach to comparative optinalysis of sequences. The results show that the outcomes of comparative optinalysis (similarity measurement) in a set of paranodically skewed sequences can be modeled deterministically by suitable line regression functions. The sensitivity points (nodes) of a sequence display two important and distinct zones, the K-zones and the B-zones. Continues paranodic skewization within these zones (KB zones) operates within probability space, but at hyperskewization level and at the K-zones only, the outcomes of comparative optinalysis operate outside the probability space. Moreover, the outcomes of comparative optinalysis by synodic skewization can be modeled deterministically by some regression line functions, but a general regression function cannot be identified. At certain limit of skewization value space, following paranodic and synodic skewization, the outcomes of comparative optinalysis at the left-sided sequence form a similar pattern with the right-sided sequence.

We evaluate the complexity of Colombian climate from extreme behavior of gauge temperature and precipitation, using the the novel Tsallis' non-extensive entropy principle based on physical information through the q-index. We find the spatial structure of non additive universal categories (q-index) and compare with some complex systems with the potential to have some degree of dynamical affinity. Our results evidence the great dynamical variability of regional climate expressed in the large range of values of $q$-index, and the high degree of non-extensitivity for both temperature and precipitation.

Maximally similar sets (MSS) are sets of elements that share a neighborhood in a high-dimensional space defined by symmetric, reflexive similarity relation. Each element of the universe is employed as the kernel of a neighborhood of a given size (number of members), and elements are added to the neighborhood in order of similarity to the current members of the set until the desired neighborhood size is achieved. The set of neighborhoods is then reduced to the set of unique maximally similar sets by eliminating all sets that are permutations of an existing set. Subsequently, the within-MSS variability of attributes associated with the elements is compared to random sets of the same size to estimate the probability of obtaining variability as low as observed. Individual attributes can be compared for effect size by the ratio of within-MSS variability to random set variability, correcting for statistical power as necessary. The analyses performed identify constraints, as opposed to determinants, in the triangular distribution of pair-wise element similarity. In the example given here, the variability in spring temperature, summer temperature, and growing degree days of forest vegetation samples shows the greatest constraint on forest composition of a large set of candidate environmental variables

The aim of this article is to summarize recent bioinformatic and statistical developments applicable to NMR-based metabolomics. Extracting relevant information from large multivariate datasets by statistical data analysis strategies may be of considerable complexity. Typical tasks comprise for example classification of specimens, identification of differentially produced metabolites, and estimation of fold changes. In this context it is of prime importance to minimize contributions from unwanted biases and experimental variance prior to these analyses. This is the goal of data normalization. Therefore, special emphasize is given to different data normalization strategies. In the first part, we will discuss the requirements and the pros and cons for a variety of commonly applied strategies. In the second part, we will concentrate on possible solutions in case that the requirements for the standard strategies are not fulfilled. In the last part, very recent developments will be discussed that allow reliable estimation of metabolic signatures for sample classification without prior data normalization. In this contribution special emphasis will be given to techniques that have worked well in our hands.

Oscillometric blood pressure (BP) devices currently estimate a single point but do not identify fluctuations in BP or distinguish them from variations in response to physiological properties. In this paper, to analyze BP normality based on oscillometric measurements, we use statistical approaches including kurtosis, skewness, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and correlation tests. Then, to mitigate uncertainties, we use a deep neural network (DNN) to determine the confidence limits (CLs) of BP measurements based on their normality. The proposed DNN regression model decreases the standard deviation of error (SDE) of the mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) and reduces the uncertainty of the CLs and SDEs of the proposed technique. We validate the normality of the distribution of the BP estimation distribution which fits the Gaussian distribution very well. We use a rank test in the DNN regression model to demonstrate the independence of the artificial SBP and DBP estimations. First, we perform statistical tests to verify the normality of the BP measurements for individual subjects. The proposed methodology provides accurate BP estimations and reduces the uncertainties associated with the CLs and SDEs based on the DNN regression estimator.

Personalized medicine is an aspect of the P4 medicine (predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory) based precisely on the customization of all medical characters of each subject. In personalized medicine, the development of medical treatments and drugs is tailored to the individual characteristics and needs of each subject, according to the study of diseases at different scales from genotype to phenotype scale. To make concrete the goal of personalized medicine, it is necessary to employ high-throughput methodologies such as Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS), Mass Spectrometry or Microarrays, that are able to investigate a single disease from a broader perspective. For example, by using genotyping microarrays (e.g. collections of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism - SNP) it is possible to uncover the reasons (i.e. mutation in genes) because a treatment works properly in some patients (for example absence of mutated genes), but it does not work (presence of mutated genes) in others. A side effect of high-throughput methodologies is the massive amount of data produced for each single experiment, that poses several challenges (e.g. high execution time and required memory) to bioinformatic software. Thus a main requirement of modern bioinformatic software is the use of good software engineering methods and efficient programming techniques, able to face those challenges, that include the use of parallel programming and efficient and compact data structures. Thus, to exploit all the potential of this massive amount of data in the short possible time (before that data becomes obsolete), the necessity to develop parallel software tools for efficient data collection and analysis arise. Moreover, due to the heterogeneity of the data produced by the different kinds of experimental platforms, it is necessary to automatize in a comprehensive software pipeline, the various steps that compose a bioinformatic analysis, such as: the preprocessing of raw data to remove noise or corrupted data; the annotation of data with external knowledge (e.g. Gene Ontology), and the integration of molecular data with clinical data. It should be noted that such steps are necessary to make statistical or data mining analysis more effective. This paper presents the design and the experimentation of a comprehensive software pipeline, named microPipe, for the preprocessing, annotation and analysis of microarray-based SNP genotyping data. A case study in pharmacogenomics is presented. The main advantages of using microPipe are: the reduction of errors that may happen when trying to make data compatible among different tools; the possibility to analyze in parallel huge datasets; the easy annotation and integration of data.

Diabetes is a significant global health issue impacting millions. Approximately 26 million diabetics experience foot ulcers, with 20% leading to amputations, resulting in high morbidity, mortality, and costs. Plantar pressure screening shows potential for the early detection of Diabetic Foot Ulcers (DFUs). Although foot ulcers often occur due to excessive pressure on the soles during dynamic activities, most studies focus on static pressure measurements. This study’s primary objective is to apply wireless plantar pressure sensor-embedded insoles to classify and detect diabetic feet from healthy ones based on dynamic plantar pressure. The secondary objective is to compare statistical-based and Machine Learning (ML) classification methods. Data from 150 subjects were collected using the insoles during walking, revealing that diabetic feet have higher plantar pressure than healthy feet, consistent with prior research. The Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) ML model achieved the highest accuracy of 0.85, outperforming the statistical method, which had an accuracy of 0.67. These findings suggest that ML models, combined with pressure sensor-embedded insoles, can effectively classify healthy and diabetic feet using plantar pressure features. Future research will focus on using these insoles with ML to classify various stages of diabetic neuropathy, aiming for early prediction of foot ulcers in home settings.

Although promoting healthy eating is a policy objective, the controllability of dietary habits remains uncertain. The personal dietary patterns reflect many factors, of which some are relatively controllable for individual, and others are not. In this article, assuming that some sort of information about controllability of dietary habits is contained in the observed pattern of food consumptions, we focused on dietary pattern on its own. We introduced a statistical descriptive model for data on food frequency questionnaire, estimated strength of pairwise linkage between foodstuffs, and grouped foodstuffs by applying community detection to the networks of the estimated inter-food linkages. Those linkages represent co-movement of pairs of foods consumption. Furthermore, we demonstrated an analysis on the relationship between health of mind and dietary habits considering the aspect of controllability of dietary habits. Using an observational study in Japan, we obtained the following results: 115 foodstuffs were divided into 3 groups for both of genders, but the compositions were different by gender; in the analysis of mental health, some stress response items were associated with the dependence on some of those food groupings. As the grouping of foodstuffs based on our estimation depicted the internal structure of dietary habit that a healthy eating policy should regard as constraint, it follows that we should design the policy along the line with that grouping.

Our paper deals with an advanced statistical tool for the volatility prediction problem in financial (crypto) markets. Firstly, we consider the conventional GARCH involved volatility models. We next extend the corresponding GARCH based forecasting and calculate a specific probability associated with the predicted volatility levels. Since the probability evaluation is based on a stochastic model, we next develop an additional data-driven estimation of this probability. The proposed advanced statistical estimation uses real (historical) market data. The obtained theoretic results for the statistical probability of levels are also discussed in the framework of the integrated volatility concept. A possible application of the established probability estimation to the volatility clustering problem is also mentioned. Our paper includes a concrete practical implementation of the resulting (combined) volatility prediction tool and considers a novel module for trading and volatility estimation in crypto markets recently developed by 1ex Trading Board group in collaboration with the GoldenGate Venture. Moreover, we discuss shortly a possible using of the proposed model based and data-driven volatility prediction methodology in the financial risk management.

Contamination in coastal regions attributed to fluoride and nitrate cannot be disregarded, given the substantial environmental and public health issues they present worldwide. Maintaining water quality is crucial for environmental well-being. This comprehensive study was performed to assess the spatial as well as indexical water quality, identify contamination sources, and evaluate associated health risks pertaining to nitrate and flouride in AlHassa region, KSA. The physiochemical results revealed a pervasive pollution of the overall groundwater. The dominant water type was Na-Cl, indicating saltwater intrusion and reverse ion exchange impact. Spatiotemporal variations in physicochemical properties suggest diverse hydrochemical mechanisms, with geogenic factors primarily influencing groundwater chemistry. The groundwater pollution index varied between 0.8426 and 4.7172, classifying samples as moderately to very highly polluted. Similarly, the synthetic pollution index (in the range of 0.5021-4.0715) revealed that none of the samples had excellent water quality, with various degrees of pollution categories. Nitrate Health Quotient (HQ) values indicated chronic human health risks ranging from low to severe, with newborns being the most vulnerable. Household use of nitrate-rich groundwater for showering and cleaning did not pose significant health risks. Fluoride HQ decreased with age, and children faced the highest risk of fluorosis. The Hazard Index (HI) yielded moderate to high-risk values. Nitrate risks were 1.21 times higher than fluoride risks, as per average HI assessment. All samples fell into the vulnerable category based on the Total Hazard Index (THI), with 88.89% classified as very high risk. This research provides valuable insights into groundwater quality, guiding water authorities, inhabitants, and researchers in identifying safe water sources and vulnerable human populations. The results highlight the need for appropriate treatment techniques and long-term coastal groundwater management plans.

Background: In Malaysia, the mortality from melioidosis infection was reported to be higher than in other infectious diseases. The research on melioidosis is still limited in Malaysia but slightly increasing. Objective: To give an overview of the study designs, statistical methods and comparison of research in identifying the predictors of melioidosis mortality in Malaysia between January 2010 to December 2021. This review articles were divided into two sections; Section 1: Review of literature and Section 2: Findings on predictors of melioidosis mortality in Malaysia. Data sources: Pubmed/Medline. Study Eligibility Criteria: Original English-language articles were abstracted. The articles that identified the predictors of melioidosis from mortality in Malaysia only included. Letters to the editor, editorials, reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analysis, case reports and any other ineligible articles were excluded. Results: A total of 7 studies were identified related to predictors of melioidosis mortality in Malaysia. From the selected articles, all of the data were retrospectively collected. Six out of 7 articles (85.7%) used the logistic regression in identifying the predictors of melioidosis mortality. Only 1 (14.3%) used advanced survival analysis methods of Cox regression analysis. Conclusion: Logistic regression methods remain the most common methods of analysis in publications on predictors of melioidosis mortality in Malaysia while retrospective research designs are favoured. There is a limitation of research in predictors of melioidosis mortality and the use of advanced statistical techniques reported using the melioidosis data in Malaysia. More published research on melioidosis will provide input to the clinicians on a more detailed understanding of how to improve the diagnosis of melioidosis and the prognosis factors of this disease.

It has been known for nearly over 150 years that fatigue life data exhibits a considerable amount of variability. Furthermore, statistically modeling fatigue life adequately is challenging. Different empirical approaches have been used, each of which has merit; however, none is appropriate universally. Even when a sufficiently robust database exists, the scatter in the fatigue lives may be extremely large and difficult to characterize. The complications in empirical modeling are exacerbated for long life estimation when experimental observations are rare. The purpose of this work is to review traditional and more modern empirically based methodologies for estimating the cumulative distribution functions for fatigue life, given an applied load. To assess the applicability of the methods confidence bounds will be estimated. The analyses will be performed on an historic set of data for annealed aluminum wire tested in reverse torsion fatigue. These data are available in publications. It is recommended that a time dependent distribution function that is an based on principles of reliability that can be generalized for a variety of modeling applications should be considered for fatigue life estimation.

Abstract: To overcome the environmental impact of cement production in cocnrete , the construction industry is adopting eco-friendly approaches, such as incorporating alternative and recycled materials, minimizing carbon emissions in concrete production. One such material that has gained prominence is Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBFS),. This study focuses on investigating the compressive strength of concrete at 28 days of age by examining the influences of several factors, such as temperature, water-to-binder ratio (w/b), GGBFS-to-binder ratio (GGBFS/b), fine aggregate, coarse aggregate, and superplasticizer. A statistical modeling approach was employed to comprehensively analyze these parameters and assess their impact on the compressive strength. To accomplish this, the study collected and analyzed data from the literature, resulting in a dataset of 210 observations. The dataset was divided into training and testing groups, and statistical analyses were performed to assess the relationships between the input parameters and compressive strength. The correlation analysis revealed insignificant relationships between the input parameters and compressive strength, indicating that multiple factors affect the strength. Different models, such as linear regression, nonlinear regression, quadratic, full quadratic models, and artificial neural networks (ANN) were employed to predict the compressive strength. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the factors that influence the compressive strength of concrete containing GGBFS. The results underscore the importance of considering multiple parameters to predict strength accurately.

This article proposes a novel formulation of quantization, which considers the Koopman-von Neumann formulation (KvN) and ordinary non-relativistic quantum mechanics (OQM) as unitarily inequivalent representations of the same underlying structure. The approach is grounded in the notion that contextuality, rather than occurrence if Plank's constant, is the fundamental aspect of quantum mechanics. The motivation for this novel view arises from the limitations of traditional approaches to quantization, combined with previous research demonstrating contextuality in KvN. Using a representation-theoretic approach, both KvN and OQM are regarded as valid quantum theories, separated by a superselection rule.

As the era of omics continues to expand, omics-based experiments have become popular in industrial biotechnology. They promise deeper biological understanding, which may be leveraged to develop novel solutions to bioprocess optimization and cell line engineering strategies. Despite this expansion, naivety about what omic data offers and how to best handle such data can challenge the extraction of actionable value. However, the value of omic experiments in biotechnology research and development can be maximized with deliberate application of omic approaches and forethought about analysis techniques. Here we describe important considerations when designing and implementing omic-based experiments, and discuss how systems biology analysis strategies can enhance efforts to obtain actionable insights in biomanufacturing.

The paper presents the identification and classification of steel cord failures in the conveyor belt core based on an analysis of a two-dimensional image of magnetic field changes recorded using the Diagbelt system around scanned failures in the test belt. The obtained set of identified changes in images obtained for numerous devices parameters settings were the base for statistical analysis. It makes it possible to determine the Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient between the parameters being changed and the image of the failures. In the second stage of the research, artificial intelligence methods were applied to construct a multilayer neural network (MLP) and to teach its appropriate identification of damage. In both methods were used the same data sets, which made it possible to compare methods.

An effective empirical statistical method is developed to improve the process of mineral resource estimation of seabed polymetallic nodules and is applied to analyse the abundance of seabed polymetallic nodules in the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ). The newly proposed method is based on three hypotheses as the foundation for a model of “Idealized Nodules”, which was validated by analysing nodule samples collected from the seabed within the Tonga Offshore Mining Limited (TOML) exploration contract. Once validated, the “Idealized Nodule” model was used to deduce a set of empirical formulae for predicting the nodule resources, in terms of Percentage Coverage and Abundance. The formulae were then applied to analysing a total of 188 sets of nodule samples collected across the TOML areas, comprising box-core samples and towed camera images collected by one of the authors and detailed in [4]. The analysis also relies upon detailed box-core sample measurements from other areas reported by [7]. Numerical results for resource prediction were compared with field measurements, and reasonable agreement has been achieved. The new method has the potential to achieve more accurate mineral resource estimation with reduced sample numbers and sizes. They may also have application in improving the efficiency of design and configuration of mining equipment.

Is it possible to measure the dispersion of ex-ante chances (i.e. chances “before the event”) among people, be it gambling, health, or social opportunities? We explore this question and provide some tools, including a statistical test, to evidence the actual dispersion of ex-ante chances in various areas with a focus on chronic diseases. Using the principle of maximum entropy, we derive the distribution of the risk to become ill in the global population as well as in the population of affected people. We find that affected people are either at very low risk like the overwhelming majority of the population but still were unlucky to become ill, or are at extremely high risk and were bound to become ill.

Climate change effect on human-living in verities of way such as health and food security. This study presents predicting crop yields, and production risk in the near future (2020-2029) in northern Thailand using coupling 1 km resolution of regional climate model which is downscaled using a conservative remapping method and the Decision Support System for the Transfer of Agrotechnology (DSSAT) modeling system. The accuracy of the climate and agricultural model was appropriate compared to the observations with Index of Agreement (IOA) in ranges of 0.65 - 0.89. The DSSAT modeling system predicts that rice, and maize production will decrease by 5% and 4% in northern Thailand. In addition, a short-term risk analysis of rice and maize production has shown that, in the context of climate change, maize production appears to be at a high risk of low production in the near future, while rice cultivation might be a low risk.

Large office buildings are responsible for a substantial portion of energy consumption in urban districts. However, thorough assessments regarding the Nordic countries are still lacking. In this paper we analyse the largest dataset to date for a Nordic office building, by considering a case study located in Stockholm, Sweden, that is occupied by nearly a thousand employees.Distinguishing the lighting and occupants’ appliances energy use from heating and cooling, we can estimate the impact of occupancy without any schedule data. A standard frequentist analysis is compared with Bayesian inference, and the according regression formulas are listed in tables that are easy to implement into building performance simulations (BPS). Monthly as well as seasonal correlations are addressed, showing the critical importance of occupancy.A simple method, grounded on the power drain measurements aimed at generating boundary conditions for the BPS, is also introduced; it shows how, for this type of data and number of occupants, no more complexities are needed in order to obtain reliable predictions. For an average year, we overestimate the measured cumulative consumption by only 4.7%. The model can be easily generalised to a variety of datasets.

We propose a Gauss model (GM), a map from time to the bell-shaped Gauss function to model the deaths per day and country, as a quick and simple model to make predictions on the coronavirus epidemic. Justified by the sigmoidal nature of a pandemic, i.e. initial exponential spread to eventual saturation, we apply the GM to existing data, as of April 2, 2020, from 25 countries during first corona pandemic wave and study the model's predictions. We find that logarithmic daily fatalities caused by Covid-19 are well described by a quadratic function in time. By fitting the data to second order polynomials from a statistical chi2-fit with 95\% confidence, we are able to obtain the characteristic parameters of the GM, i.e. a width, peak height and time of peak, for each country separately, with which we extrapolate to future times to make predictions. We provide evidence that this supposedly oversimplifying model might still have predictive power and use it to forecast the further course of the fatalities caused by Covid-19 per country, including peak number of deaths per day, date of peak, and duration within most deaths occur. While our main goal is to present the general idea of the simple modeling process using GMs, we also describe possible estimates for the number of required respiratory machines and the duration left until the number of infected will be significantly reduced.

Accurate prediction of the self-propulsion performance is one of the most important factors for energy-efficient design of a ship. In general, the hydrodynamic performance of a full-scale ship could be achieved by model-scale simulation or towing tank test with extrapolations. With the development of CFD methods and computing power, directly predict ship performance with full-scale CFD is an important approach. In this article, a numerical study on the full-scale self-propulsion performance with propeller operating behind ship at model- and full-scale is presented. The study includes numerical simulations using RANS method with double-model and VOF model respectively and scale effect analysis based on overall performance, local flow fields and detailed vortex identification. Verification study on grid convergence is also performed for full-scale simulation with global and local mesh refinements. And a series of sea trail tests were performed to collect reliable data for the validation of CFD predictions. The analysis of scale effect on hull-propeller interaction shows that the difference on hull boundary layer and flow separation is the main source of scale effect on ship wake. And the results of the fluctuations of propeller thrust and torque along with circulation distribution and local flow field show that propeller’s loading is significantly higher for model-scale ship. It is suggested that the difference on vortex evolution and interaction is more pronounced and have larger effects on ship’s powering performance at model-scale than full-scale according to the simulation results. From the study on self-propulsion prediction, it could be concluded that the simplification on free surface treatment does not only affect the wave-making resistance for bare hull but also the propeller performance and propeller induced ship resistance which can produced up to 5% uncertainty to the power prediction. Roughness is another important factor in full-scale simulation because it has up to approximately 7% effect on the delivery power. As a result of validation study, the numerical simulations of full-scale ship self-propulsion shows good agreement with the sea trail data especially for cases that have considered both roughness and free surface effects. This result will largely enhance our confidence to apply full-scale simulation in the prediction of ship’s self-propulsion performance in the future ship designs.

The description of protein disordered states is important for understanding protein folding mechanisms and their functions. In this short review, we briefly describe a simulation approach to modeling disordered protein interactions and unfolded states of globular proteins. It is based on the CABS coarse-grained protein model that uses a Monte Carlo (MC) sampling scheme and a knowledge-based statistical force field. We review several case studies showing that description of protein disordered states resulting from CABS simulations is consistent with experimental data. The case studies comprise investigations of protein-peptide binding and protein folding processes. The CABS model has been recently made available as the simulation engine of multiscale modeling tools enabling studies of protein-peptide docking and protein flexibility. Those tools offer customization of the modeling process, driving the conformational search using distance restraints, reconstruction of selected models to all-atom resolution and studies of large protein systems in a reasonable computational time. Therefore, CABS can be combined in integrative modeling pipelines incorporating experimental data and other modeling tools of various resolution.

We numerically study surface models defined on hexagonal disks with a free boundary. 2D surface models for planer surfaces have recently attracted interest due to the engineering applications of functional materials such as graphene and its composite with polymers. These 2D composite meta-materials are strongly influenced by external stimuli such as thermal fluctuations if they are sufficiently thin. For this reason, it is very interesting to study the shape stability/instability of thin 2D materials against thermal fluctuations. In this paper, we study three types of surface models including Landau-Ginzburg (LG) and Helfirch-Polyakov models defined on triangulated hexagonal disks using the parallel tempering Monte Carlo simulation technique. We find that the planer surfaces undergo a first-order transition between the smooth and crumpled phases in the LG model and continuous transitions in the other two models. The first-order transition is relatively weaker compared to the transition on spherical surfaces already reported. The continuous nature of the transition is consistent with the reported results, although the transitions are stronger than that of the reported ones.

This study reports multivariate statistical techniques applied including cluster analysis to evaluate and classify the river pollution level in Taiwan, and principal component analysis-multiple linear regression (PCA-MLR) to identify the possible pollution source. Water quality and heavy metal monitoring data from Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) was evaluated for 14 rivers in the four regions of Taiwan. The Erren River was classified as the most polluted River in Taiwan. Biochemical oxygen demand, ammonia, and total phosphate concentration in this river were the highest of the 14 rivers evaluated. In addition, heavy metal levels of the following rivers exceeded the Taiwan EPA standard limit: lead - in the Dongshan, Jhuoshuei, and Xinhuwei Rivers; copper - in the Dahan, Laojie, and Erren Rivers; and manganese - in all rivers. Water pollution in the Erren River was estimated to originate 72% from industrial sources, 16% from domestic black water, and 12% from natural sources and runoff from other tributaries. Our research showed that PCA-MLR and the cluster analysis model accomplished our study objectives and will be helpful tools to evaluate water quality in rivers and we suggest that the continuous monitoring should be conducted to monitor water pollution from anthropogenic activities.

Current progress in the prediction of mechanical behavior of solids requires understanding of spatiotemporal complexity of plastic flow caused by self-organization of crystal defects. It may be particularly important in hexagonal materials because of their strong anisotropy and combination of different mechanisms of plasticity, such as dislocation glide and twinning. These materials often display complex behavior even on the macroscopic scale of deformation curves, e.g., a peculiar three-stage elastoplastic transition, the origin of which is a matter of debates. The present work is devoted to a multiscale study of plastic flow in α-Ti, based on simultaneous recording of deformation curves, 1D local strain field, and acoustic emission (AE). It is found that the average AE activity also reveals three-stage behavior, but in a qualitatively different way depending on the crystallographic orientation of the sample axis. On the finer scale, the statistical analysis of AE events and local strain rates testifies to an avalanche-like character of dislocation processes, reflected in power-law probability distribution functions. The results are discussed from the viewpoint of collective dislocation dynamics and are confronted to predictions of a recent micromechanical model of Ti strain hardening.

Incorporating sewage sludge (SS) into soils presents a cost-effective and environmentally friendly option compared to conventional farming practices. However, SS could be perceived as a double-edged sword, as it may contain a broad spectrum of contaminants, posing threats to soil, underground waters, food chains and human health. Even from an epidemiology perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated debates regarding the potential health risks associated with SS. The handling of SS is emerging as a significant issue in the European Union (EU), primarily due to its increasing utilization and the presence of contaminants such as heavy metals (HMs), microplastics (MPs), Pharmaceuticals in the Environment (PIE), and personal care products (PSPs). The Council Directive 86/278/EEC governs the limits of HMs when SS is utilized in agriculture. However, the Directive is enacted diversely throughout EU member states (MS), with their national legislations highlighting differences, gaps and various approaches in implementing the Council Directive. The Directive, which has been in force since 1986, has not undergone any significant revisions until the recent disclosure of a revised version in May 2023. The executive summary of the evaluation of the Council Directive 86/278/EEC (SWD-2023) – {final 158} specifies maximum concentrations of six HMs in SS among its regulatory measures. This article delves into capturing the current legal framework that defines and delimits the processes and obligations of EU MS regarding SS's management, treatment, and agriculture amendment. The primary objective is to explore the qualitative and quantitative differences/discrepancies between the MS National legislation and point out discontinuities and gaps, thus setting forward a cohesive step for future revisions and updates of the relevant legislation. Part of the article's results reflect the different approaches to permissible limits of HMs concentrations in the EU MS and between international organizations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Moreover, the total absence of MPs and other Common Soil Pollutants (antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, etc.) limit values are evidence of the gaps in the current legislative framework.

Solar radiation is an element and a meteorological factor that is present in several processes, such as evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, and energy generation, among others. However, in some regions, there is a limitation in surface data measurements. In this study, 87 empirical models were evaluated to estimate global radiation (Hg) in the Brazilian Amazon Biome; these models were divided into five groups according to the input variables, such as insolation (group I), air temperature (group II), relative humidity (group III), astronomical variables (group IV), and hybrid models (group V) as input variables. The estimates were evaluated by their significance (t-test) and then according to the statistical metrics of the models' performance (R2, MBE, RMSE, and d). The group V model [Hg/Ho = a + b lnΔT + c (S/So)d)] presented the best statistical performance in all evaluated indicators, followed by the group I model [Hg/Ho = a + b (S/So)c ] and then the group II model [Hg/Ho = a + bΔT + c ΔT0.25 + d ΔT0.5 + e (Tmed/Ho)]. The group III models presented low statistical performance, and the group IV models were not significant (NS) in all evaluated meteorological stations. In general, it was found that the simple or hybrid models based on insolation and air temperature were efficient in estimating Hg in the Brazilian Amazon Biome.

Photovoltaic modules should pass series of tests and examinations, verifying the electrical and thermal characteristics of the module, before being released to the market, examining the properties of the modules should undergo appropriate durability and efficiency tests under real outdoor conditions with exposure to climatic conditions and under laboratory conditions. The performance of photovoltaic cells depends on many factors, such as solar irradiance, module operating temperature, installation location, weather conditions and module shading. In this paper, three selected photovoltaic modules were examined using a large-scale steady-state solar simulator. The current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of the photovoltaic modules were experimentally tested and analyzed. The next step was to implement a three-layer artificial neural network model (MLP). The experimental data obtained in the previous step coupled with output data from MLP were then used in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). Experiments carried out on a large-scale stationary solar simulator showed differences between the values declared by the manufacturer and the values obtained from measurements of PV modules. The first module tested achieved the maximum power point greater than that specified by the manufacturer, while the other two showed power drops; it was 85-87% for the second module, and 95-98% for the third, respectively. The performed global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for the MLP model showed that the parameters: eff (22.9) and Voc/V (14.19) have the largest effect on the power-voltage relationship, while U (7.29) has the smallest effect. The usefulness of machine learning (ML) methods in the comparative analysis of PV modules has been proved.

This study explored the incidence of metaphorical virtual classrooms and interactive learning objects in the interaction of students in online mode. The main objective was to analyze how these digital tools, driven by a set of strategies to promote their use, affect the interaction of students in the virtual classroom system and their derived effects. To this end, the latest version of Moodle was implemented in conjunction with gamification plugins and interactive tools in the higher education institution used as a case study. The methodology consisted of data collection through ordinal instruments applied to the teachers and student performance metrics gathered using a plugin developed to extract accurate metrics of each student's usage and performance through direct queries to the Moodle database and its processing through a neural network. This facilitated the collection of standardized data on the actual metrics of each virtual classroom at the end of the teaching of each subject from both the previous LMS and the newly implemented one. This data was then analyzed using advanced statistical techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, confirmatory factor analysis, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. These methods provided a compelling comparison between the old and new systems, revealing significant improvements in the metrics and factors evaluated. The results showed a significant improvement in teachers' perceptions of the usability of the virtual classroom system and an increase in students' academic performance, interaction, progress, and time spent learning in virtual contexts. These results provide solid empirical evidence of the added value of these educational tools as effective strategies for improving student interaction, performance, and motivation in online education.

Nowadays, consumers have growing expectations for healthier and higher-quality food, and sustainable food choices are also taking on an increasingly central role. This paper assesses the environmental loads and energy resources of vegan, semi-vegetarian, and traditional restaurant soups and main dishes, focusing on preparation and cooking phases based on the life cycle assessment. The optimal menu samples were selected based on statistical methods. Mann-Whitney and Krus-kal-Wallis tests were applied to investigate restaurant products' distribution and carbon footprint. Based on the results, the preparation phases have a more significant impact. The environmental loads for the life cycle of vegan and semi-vegetarian menus are lower. Furthermore, a sustainability assessment model was developed by integrating lean and life cycle assessment approaches called "GreenCycLEAN." Research results are helpful for the sustainability of catering establishments.

For the water bodies of the Lena Delta Nature Reserve, 413 taxa were known. In 14 small tundra reservoirs in its vicinity, we identified 385 taxa, which in the compilatory list made up a significant diversity (666 taxa including definitions to the genus level) of diatoms. Thus, the species composition of diatoms in the reserve and adjacent territories was replenished by 278 species. The predominance of species of the genera Pinnularia (57) and Eunotia (51) at the family and generic levels was revealed. Index of intraspecific variability Ssp./Sp. for the lakes of the reserve was 1.11, and for the lakes of the Tiksi region 1.14, which is typical for high-latitude and high-mountain communities. The number of rare or endangered species varied in different lakes within 1-10, totaling 42 species for the entire study area. Bioindication has shown that potentially threatened species prefer moderate temperatures, slightly acidic or neutral environments free from organic pollution. A comparative analysis of the species composition of diatoms in the vicinity of the Lena Delta and other northern water bodies of Yakutia and the Arctic Islands showed that the species composition of each lake in the Arctic is strictly individual. The indicator characteristics show a certain response of the species composition of diatoms to changes in salinity, pH, and organic pollution. A number of regularities in the spatial distribution of diatoms in the study area were found in connection with the physicochemical parameters of their habitat, height above sea level, and relation to a particular catchment basin. Statistical mapping of indicators of community and habitat diversity revealed a strong reaction to point one-time pollution and made it possible to assume the influence of summer northeast winds on the species composition. We suggest that the high diversity inherent in the diatom lakes of the Tiksi coastal zone, which can even be replenished in further studies, can be considered as a property of coastal biota inherent in ecotones. Since it is in the coastal Tiksi region that a surge in the number of species is observed, this region can be considered not only an ecotone, but also a hotspot of diatom diversity. The results of the study are important for developing the basis for monitoring biodiversity under the conditions of anthropogenic and climatic changes in the Arctic.

The multiple regression method is still an important tool for establishing precipitation forecast models with a lead time of one season. This study developed a flexible statistical forecast model for July precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) based on the prophase winter sea surface temperature (SST). According to the characteristics of observed samples and related theoretical knowledge, some special treatments (i.e., more flexible and better–targeted methods) were introduced in the forecast model. These special treatments include a flexible MLYR domain definition, the extraction of indicative signals from the SST field, artificial samples, and the amplification of abnormal precipitation. Rolling forecast experiments show that the linear correlation between prediction and observation is around 0.5, more than half of the abnormal precipitation years can be successfully predicted, and there is no contradictory prediction of the abnormal years. These results indicate that the flexible statistical forecast model is valuable in real-life applications. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that forecast skills without these special treatments are obviously decreased. This suggests that forecast models can benefit from using statistical methods in a more flexible and better-targeted way.

In unicellular organisms, intracellular inclusions of amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) have been initially described in cyanobacteria and, later, in unicellular eukaryotes of Lake Geneva (Switzerland/France). Inclusions in unicellular eukaryotes ‒named micropearls‒ consist of hydrated ACCs, frequently enriched in Sr or Ba, displaying internal oscillatory zonations due to variations in the Ba:Ca or Sr:Ca ratios. The analysis of our database consisting of 1597 micropearl analyses from Lake Geneva and 34 from Lake Titicaca (Bolivia/Peru) has shown that a certain number of Sr and Ba-enriched micropearls from these lakes contain As in amounts measurable by EDXS. A Q-mode statistical analysis has confirmed the existence of five geochemically distinct morpho-chemical groups of As-bearing micropearls, among which a new category identified in Lake Geneva, where As is often associated with Mg. This new type of micropearl is possibly produced in a small (7-12 m size) bi-flagellated organism. Micropearls from Lake Titicaca, which contain Sr, are found in an organism very similar to Tetraselmis cordiformis, observed in Lake Geneva. Lake Titicaca micropearls contain higher As concentrations which can be explained by the high As concentration in the water of this lake. The ubiquity of the biomineralization process observed points to the need for better understanding of the role of amorphous or crystalline calcium carbonates in As cycling in surface waters.

In this study, experimental work was carried out on reinforced concrete (RC) beams strengthened with carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) plates. This study aims to examine the effect of the reinforcement ratio on the flexural behavior of these beams and propose a new model for predicting the debonding moment. Six RC beams consisting of three control beams and three beams strengthened with CFRP plates were tested. The beams were simply supported and loaded with four-point bending. The test variable was the tensile reinforcement ratio (1%, 1.5%, and 2.5%). Analytical prediction using the fiber element method was also carried out to obtain the complete theoretical response of the beam due to flexural loads. The test results show that the reinforcement ratio affected the bending performance of RC beams with CFRP plates. Following this, the experimental data from 60 beam test results from published literature and this study were analyzed. From these data, it was found that the ratio of tensile reinforcement, the ratio of modulus of elasticity of concrete, the modulus of elasticity of the plate, and plate thickness all affect the value of debonding moment. A parametric study using fiber element and two-dimensional finite element method was also carried out to confirm the effect of these parameters on debonding failure. These parameters were then used to develop an equation to predict the debonding moment of RC beams strengthened with CFRP plates using simple statistical analysis. This analysis resulted in a simple model for predicting the debonding moment. Then the model is entered into a computer program, and the complete response of the cross-section due to debonding failure can be obtained.

The maximization of entropy S within a closed system is accepted as an inevitability (as the second law of thermodynamics) by statistical inference alone. The Maximum Entropy Production Principle (MEPP) states that not only S maximizes, but $\dot{S}$ as well: a system will dissipate as fast as possible. There is still no consensus on the general validity of this MEPP, even though it shows remarkable explanatory power (both qualitatively and quantitatively), and has been empirically demonstrated for many domains. In this theoretical paper I provide a generalization of entropy gradients, to show that the MEPP actually follows from the same statistical inference, as that of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For this generalization I only use the concepts of super-statespaces and microstate-density. These concepts also allow for the abstraction of 'Self Organizing Criticality' to a bifurcating local difference in this density, and allow for a generalization of the fundamentally unresolved concepts of 'chaos' and 'order'.

Single sample face recognition (SSFR) is a computer vision challenge. In this scenario, there is only one example from each individual on which to train the system, making it difficult to identify persons in unconstrained environments, particularly when dealing with changes in facial expression, posture, lighting, and occlusion. This paper suggests a different method based on a variant of the Binarized Statistical Image Features (BSIF) descriptor called Multi-Block Color-Binarized Statistical Image Features (MB-C-BSIF) to resolve the SSFR Problem. First, the MB-C-BSIF method decomposes a facial image into three channels (e.g., red, green, and blue), then it divides each channel into equal non-overlapping blocks to select the local facial characteristics that are consequently employed in the classification phase. Finally, the identity is determined by calculating the similarities among the characteristic vectors adopting a distance measurement of the k-nearest neighbors (K-NN) classifier. Extensive experiments on several subsets of the unconstrained Alex &amp; Robert (AR) and Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) databases show that the MB-C-BSIF achieves superior results in unconstrained situations when compared to current state-of-the-art methods, especially when dealing with changes in facial expression, lighting, and occlusion. Furthermore, the suggested method employs algorithms with lower computational cost, making it ideal for real-time applications.

Tailed phages are the most abundant and diverse group of viruses on the planet. Yet, the smallest tailed phages display relatively complex capsids and large genomes compared to other viruses. The lack of tailed phages forming the common icosahedral capsid architectures T = 1 and T = 3 is puzzling. Here, we extracted geometrical features from high-resolution tailed phage capsid reconstructions and built a statistical model based on physical principles to predict the capsid diameter and genome length of the missing small tailed phage capsids. We applied the model to 3,348 isolated tailed phage genomes and 1,496 gut metagenome-assembled tailed phage genomes. Four isolated tailed phages were predicted to form T = 3 icosahedral capsids, and twenty-one metagenome-assembled tailed phages were predicted to form T < 3 capsids. The smallest capsid predicted was a T = 4/3 ≈ 1.33 architecture. No tailed phages were predicted to form the smallest icosahedral architecture, T = 1. We discuss the feasibility of the missing T = 1 tailed phage capsids and the implications of isolating and characterizing small tailed phages for viral evolution and phage therapy.

We advance binational link-tracing sampling design, an innovative data collection methodology for sampling from transnational social fields, i.e., transnational networks embedding migrants and non-migrants. This paper shows the practical challenges of such a design, the representativeness of the samples and the qualities of the resulted networks. We performed 303 face-to-face structured interviews on sociodemographic variables, migration trajectories and personal networks of people living in a Romanian migration sending community (Dâmbovița) and in a migration receiving Spanish town (Castellón), simultaneously in both sites. Inter-connecting the personal networks, we built a multi-layered complex network structure embedding 4,855 nominated people, 5,477 directed ties (nominations) and 2,540 edges. Results indicate that the participants’ unique identification is a particularly difficult challenge, the representativeness of the data is not optimal (homophily on observed attributes was detected in the nomination patterns), and the relational and attribute data allow to explore the social organization of the Romanian migrant enclave in Castellón, as well as its connectivity to other places. Furthermore, we provide methodological suggestions for improving link-tracing sampling from transnational networks of migration. Our research contributes to the emerging efforts of applying social network analysis to the study of international migration.

Background & Objectives: The global pandemic caused by novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has claimed several lives worldwide. With the virus gathering rapid spread, the world has witnessed increasing number of confirmed cases and mortality rate, India is not far behind with approximately 37,000 affected individuals as on May 2, 2020. The ongoing pandemic has raised several questions which need to be answered by analysis of transmission of the infection. The data has been collected on daily basis from WHO and other sites. We have represented the data collated graphically using statistical packages, R and other online softwares. The present study provides a holistic overview of the spread of COVID-19 infection in India. Methods: Real-time data query was done based on daily observations using publicly available data from reference websites for COVID-19 and other government official reports for the period (15^th February, 2020 to April 28^th, 2020). Statistical analysis was performed to draw important inferences regarding COVID-19 trend in India. Results: A decrease in growth rate of cases due to COVID-19 in India post lockdown and improvement in recovery rate during the month of April was identified. The case fatality rate was estimated to be 3.22% of the total reported cases. State-wise analysis revealed a deteriorating situation in states of Maharashtra and Gujarat among others as cases continued to increase rapidly there. A positive linear correlation between the number of deaths and total cases and exponential relation between population density and number of cases reported per square km was established. Interpretation & Conclusions: Despite early preventive measures taken up by the Government of India, the increasing number of cases in India is a concern. This study compiles state-wise and district-wise data to report the daily confirmed cases, case fatalities and strategies adopted in the form of case studies. Understanding the transmission spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a diverse and populated country like India will be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of control policies towards the spread of COVID-19 infection.

A convenient practical model for accurately estimating the total entropy (ΣSi) of atmospheric gases based on physical action is proposed. This realistic approach is fully consistent with statistical mechanics, but reinterprets its partition functions as measures of translational, rotational and vibrational action or quantum states, to estimate the entropy. With all kinds of molecular action expressed as logarithmic functions, the total heat required for warming a chemical system from 0o K (ΣSiT) to a given temperature and pressure can be computed, yielding results identical with published experimental third law values of entropy. All thermodynamic properties of gases including entropy, enthalpy, Gibbs energy and Helmholtz energy are directly estimated using simple algorithms based on simple molecular and physical properties, without resource to tables of standard values; both free energies are measures of quantum field states and of minimal statistical degeneracy, decreasing with temperature and declining density. We propose that this more realistic approach has heuristic value for thermodynamic computation of atmospheric profiles, based on steady state heat flows equilibrating with gravity. Potentially, this application of an action principle can provide better understanding of emergent properties of many natural or evolving complex systems, including modelling of predictions for global warming.

In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic model to study prime distribution in almost-short intervals, inspired by a corollary of the Maynard-Guth theorem. The model uses the equation \[ x_{n+1} = x_n + \frac{y}{\log x_n} + \epsilon_n, \] where \(\epsilon_n\) follows a Laplace distribution, and demonstrates that our new bound surpasses both Walfisz and Maynard-Guth bounds, particularly for large \(x\): \[ \left| \pi(x + y) - \pi(x) - \frac{y}{\log x} \right| \leq C \cdot y \exp(-\sqrt[4]{\log x}). \] Additionally, we explore a modulated Hamiltonian \(\hat{H}(x)\), derived from a potential \(V(x)\) and a test function \(f(x)\), that exhibits behavior akin to the energy levels of the heavy nucleus \(H_{38}\). The gaps between these energy levels resemble the distribution of zeros of the Riemann zeta function near the critical line, suggesting that \(\zeta(0.5 + i \hat{H}(x))\) corresponds to the energy levels of \(\hat{H}(x)\), thus supporting a quantum mechanical interpretation of the Riemann hypothesis. Furthermore, assuming the Elliott-Halberstam conjecture, which implies that prime gaps can be as small as 12, we find that the transition rate \(\Gamma_{p \to p+12}\) between quantum states associated with prime numbers increases with larger primes. This observation indicates that the distribution of prime gaps reflects an underlying discrete structure in the "energy" landscape of primes, offering a novel perspective on the connection between number theory and quantum physics.

Recent studies have shown correlations between the microbiota's composition and various health conditions. Machine learning (ML) techniques are essential for analyzing complex biological data, particularly in microbiome research. ML methods help analyze large datasets to uncover microbiota patterns and understand how these patterns affect human health. This study introduces a novel approach combining statistical physics with the Monte Carlo (MC) methods to characterize bacterial species in the human microbiota. We assess the significance of bacterial species in different age groups by using notions of statistical distances to evaluate species prevalence and abundance across age groups and employing MC simulations based on statistical mechanics principles. Our findings show that the microbiota composition experiences a significant transition from early childhood to adulthood. Species such as Bifidobacterium breve and Veillonella parvula decrease with age, while others like Agathobaculum butyriciproducens and Eubacterium rectale increase. Additionally, low-prevalence species may hold significant importance in characterizing age groups. Finally, we propose an overall species ranking by integrating the methods proposed here in a multicriteria classification strategy. Our research provides a comprehensive tool for microbiota analysis using statistical notions, ML techniques, and MC simulations.

Flood frequency analysis at large scales, essential for the development of flood risk maps, is hindered by the uncertainty in outputs of process-based hydrological models and the scarcity of gauge flow data. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for regional flood frequency analysis at high resolution across North America. Our model leverages annual maximum flow data from ≈20000 gauged stations and a dataset of 130 static catchment-specific covariates to predict extreme flows at all catchments over the continent as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. Additionally, a modification is made to the data layer of the BHM to include daily gauge discharge data when available, which improves the precision of the discharge level estimates. We validated the model using a hold-out approach and found that its predictive power is very good for the GEV distribution location and scale parameters and improveable for the shape parameter, which is notoriously hard to estimate. The resulting discharge return levels yield satisfying agreement when compared with available design peak discharge from various government sources. Assessment of the covariates’ contributions to the model also informs on the most relevant underlying factors influencing flood-inducing peak flows. The key covariates in our model are temperature-related bioindicators, the catchment drainage area and geographical location.

How many different writers authored the huge number of texts attributed to Galen of Pergamum (129~216 AD), medical doctor and philosopher, a giant in the history of medicine? To find out which texts were his and which ones were written by others is known as the “Galenic Question”. We propose a “solution” to it through a multidisciplinary approach based: (a) on historical research and (b) on a mathematical analysis of the Greek texts. The historical approach has considered historical independent sources and anachronisms. The mathematical approach has been based on a mathematical theory concerning deep–language variables, rarely consciously controlled by any author, therefore capable of giving indications on similarity of texts, with little or no bias. The multidisciplinary approach has convinced us that at least three authors wrote the texts attributed to Galen. The first two very likely were real historical persons: (a) a certain Galen living between the end of the I century BC and the second half of the I century AD; (b) the historical Galen of Pergamum (II–III centuries AD) and (c) several unknown authors hiding under the name Galen, but surely living after Galen of Pergamum’s death.

Mutual exclusion algorithms are at the heart of concurrent, distributed/parallel, real-time and operating systems. It is well-known that such algorithms are very difficult to analyze and in the literature different conjectures about starvation-freedom and the number of by-passes (also said the overtaking factor), which in turn affects the (hopefully) bounded waiting time that a process competing for entering the critical section has to suffer before accessing the shared resource, have been formulated for specific algorithms. This paper proposes a novel modelling approach based on Timed Automata and the Uppaal toolset, which proves effective for studying all the properties of a mutual exclusion algorithm for N≥2 processes, by exhaustive model checking. Although the approach, as already confirmed by similar experiments reported in the literature, is not scalable due to state explosion problems, and can be practically applied until N≤5, it is of great value for revealing true properties of analyzed algorithms. For dimensions N>5 the statistical model checker of Uppaal can be used which, although based on simulations, can confirm properties by estimations and probabilities. The paper describes the proposed modelling and verification method and applies it to several mutual exclusion algorithms, thus retrieving known properties but also showing new results about properties often studied only by peer-review and intuitive reasoning.

The draconian regulation required by the inherent instability of cognitive phenomena -- gene expression, immune function, cancer suppression, wound healing, animal consciousness, machine intelligence, network stabilization, institutional cognition, and their many and varied composites -- can be viewed through the lens of the asymptotic limit theorems of both information and control theories. Here, we explore the dynamics and sometimes highly punctuated failures of the regulation of cognition under increasing `noise'. The approach parallels, and indeed generalizes, the Data Rate Theorem of control theory, extending the theorem's requirement of a minimum channel capacity necessary for stabilization of an inherently unstable system. Various models are explored across different basic underlying probability distributions characteristic of the system under study, and across different hierarchical scales, finding the addition of adaptive -- learned -- regulation greatly extends the reach of innate -- e.g., AI-driven or otherwise pre-programmed -- regulation. This work points toward the construction of new statistical tools for the analysis of observational and empirical data across a wide spectrum of inherent pathologies and adversarial challenges afflicting a wide variety of cognitive processes.

The review aims to examine how well numerical indicators of business bankruptcy can predict outcomes. The paper examines ten critical studies that concentrate on statistical models for bankruptcy predictions utilizing PRISMA criteria. The findings highlight the usefulness of numerical indicators in indicating financial hardship, particularly cash flow ratios. In order to connect theoretical knowledge with real-world corporate strategy applications, the study ends by reaffirming the importance of these indicators in strategic decision-making.

We construct a novel family of summation-integral type hybrid operators in terms of shape parameter $\alpha\in \lbrack 0,1]$ in this paper. Basic estimates, rate of convergence, and order of approximation are also studied using the Korovkin theorem and the modulus of smoothness. We investigate the local approximation findings for these sequences of positive linear operators utilising Peetre's K-functional, Lipschitz class, and second-order modulus of smoothness.

Economics has long sought to bridge the principles of microeconomics into the realm of macroeconomics. This paper presents a formal attempt to do so by using a maximum entropy based approach derived from statistical mechanics coupled with subjective game theory and elements from political philosophy. This approach is then applied to income distributions and to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to create a framework for future applications, and to illustrate where past work had made implicit assumptions regarding the system. The paper then explores the consequences of the approach, illustrating self-contradictions in the political philosophy of distributive justice, formally deriving an equation of state for the transactions on the Bitcoin network, and deriving from this the ideal gas law and polytropic process for an economy proving that expansionary monetary policy is not stimulative.

In the Lower Yarmouk Gorge the chemical composition of regional, fresh to brackish, mostly thermal groundwater reveal a zonation in respect to salinization and geochemical evolution, which is seemingly controlled by the Lower Yarmouk fault (LYF) but does not strictly follow the morphological Yarmouk Gorge. South of LYF the artesian Mukeihbeh well field produces in its central segment groundwaters of almost pure basaltic-rock type with low contribution (<0.3 vol-%) of Tertiary brine, hosted in deep Cretaceous and Jurassic formations. Further distal, the contribution of limestone water increases originating from the Ajloun Mts. North of the LYF, the Mezar wells, the springs of Hammat Gader and Ain Himma produce dominantly limestone water, which contains 0.14-3 vol-% of the Tertiary brine and possess hence variable salinity. The total dissolved equivalents of solutes gained by water/rock interaction (WRI) and mixing with brine, TDE(WRI+brine), amounts to 10-70 % in the region comprising the Mukheibeh field, Ain Himma and Mezar 3 well, to 55-70 % in the springs of Hammat Gader, and to 80-90 % in wells Mezar 1 and 2. The type of salinization indicates that the Lower Yarmouk fault seemingly acts as the divide between the Ajloun and the Golan Heigths dominated groundwater.

Metabolomics analysis generates vast arrays of data, necessitating comprehensive workflows involving expertise in analytics, biochemistry and bioinformatics, in order to provide coherent and high-quality data that enables discovery of robust and biologically significant metabolic findings. In this protocol article, we introduce NoTaMe, an analytical workflow for non-targeted metabolic profiling approaches utilizing liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis. We provide an overview of lab protocols and statistical methods that we commonly practice for the analysis of nutritional metabolomics data. The paper is divided into three main sections: the first and second sections introducing the background and the study designs available for metabolomics research, and the third section describing in detail the steps of the main methods and protocols used to produce, preprocess and statistically analyze metabolomics data, and finally to identify and interpret the compounds that have emerged as interesting.

This paper deals with experimental study of the influence of conductive (Fe₃O₄) and insulating (Al₂O₃) nanostructured particles at various concentrations on the dielectric strength of transformer mineral oil. The method of preparation and characterization of these nanofluids (NFs) through the measurements of zeta potential, the real and imaginary parts of dielectric constant as well as the concentration and size of nanoparticles using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) images of nanoparticles powders and Dispersive x-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) analysis are presented. Experimental findings reveal that these two types of nanoparticles materials significantly improve AC breakdown voltage and the magnitude of this improvement depends on the concentration, size and nature (material) of nanoparticles. For a given type of nanoparticles, the effect is more marked with the smallest nanoparticles. The conductive nanoparticles offer higher enhancement of dielectric strength compared with insulating nanoparticles based nanofluids. With Fe₃O₄, the breakdown voltage (BDV) can exceed twice that of mineral oil and it increases by more than 76% with Al₂O₃. The physicochemical mechanisms implicated in this improvement are discussed.

I present in this paper Diatomic, an open-source Excel application that calculates molar ther-modynamic properties for diatomic ideal gases. This application is very easy to use and requires only a limited number of molecular constants, which are freely available online. Despite its sim-plicity, Diatomic provides methodologies and results that are usually unavailable in general quantum chemistry packages. This application uses the general formalism of statistical mechanics, enabling two models to describe the rotational structure and two models to describe the vibra-tional structure. In this work, Diatomic was used to calculate standard molar thermodynamic properties for a set of fifteen diatomic ideal gases. Special emphasis was placed on the analysis of four properties (standard molar enthalpy of formation, molar heat capacity at constant pressure, average molar thermal enthalpy and standard molar entropy), which were compared with ex-perimental values. The results obtained lead to the following main conclusions: (i) the theoretical model used to describe rotational structure has a small effect on the accuracy of the results, (ii) at moderate and high temperatures, the Morse model gives better results than the harmonic model, and (iii) at the lowest temperatures both models give similar results.

Popular geo-computer vision works make use of aerial imager with sizes ranging from 64 × 64 to 1024 × 1024 pixels without any overlap, although the learning process of deep learning models can be affected by the reduced semantic context or the lack of information near image boundaries. In this work, the impact of three image sizes (256 × 256, 512 × 512, and 1024 × 1024 pixels) and two image overlap levels (no overlap and 12.5% overlap) on the performance of road classification models was statistically evaluated. For this, two convolutional neural networks used in various tasks of geospatial object extraction were trained (using the same hyperparameters) on a large dataset (containing aerial image data covering 8650 km² of the Spanish territory that was labelled with binary road information) under twelve different scenarios, each scenario featuring a different combination of tile size and overlap. To assess their generalisation capacity, the performance of all resulting models was evaluated on a data from novel areas covering approximately 825 km². The performance metrics obtained were analysed using appropriate descriptive and inferential statistical techniques to evaluate the impact of the performance at distinct levels of the fixed factors (tile size, tile overlap, neural network architecture). Statistical tests were applied to study the main and interaction effects of the fixed factors on the performance. A significance level of 0.05 was applied to all the null hypothesis tests. The results were highly significant for the main effects (p-values lower than 0.001), while the two-way and three-way interaction effects among them had different levels of significance. The results indicate that the training of road classification models on images with a higher tile size (more semantic context) and tile overlap (additional border context and continuity) significantly impacts their performance. The best model was trained on a dataset featuring tiles with a size of 1024 × 1024 pixels and a 12.5% overlap and achieved a loss value of 0.0984, an F1 score of 0.8728, and an ROC-AUC score of 0.9766, together with an error rate of 3.5% on the test set.

An existing simplified simulation model of global climate, population, economy, and governance is extended, through statistical and other data analysis, to include several measures of human well-being and population displacement. The revised model is used to explore (in testing to the year 2060) vicious cycles and causal cascades that, some have warned, could lead to acceleration of climate change in the coming decades. Model scenario testing addresses two uncertainties, namely the strength of the effect of climate change on governance erosion, and the strength of the “heat trap” effect from physical tipping points such as ice loss and permafrost thaw. This testing indicates that a strong heat trap effect could very well accelerate climate change, but that even a strong governance erosion effect is unlikely to do so. Governance erosion would hurt human well-being but is probably not much of a climate threat per se. These results are tentative but point to the possibility of formally modeling causal cascades beyond what the larger climate models have done to date.

^{We consider the collective pricing orders in a minimum supply chain that is composed of a monopolistic manufacturer and many retailers that belong to the same chain store firm. The retailers have the freedom to raise or lower the local price. The chain store firm sets up the commercial rules for local retail stores to maximize its total payoff. The monopolistic manufacturer firm controls the total quantity supplied for the market to achieve maximum benefits. We applied the two dimensional Ising model in statistical physics to map the collective distribution of microscopic strategy of local retailers into the macroscopic total payoff of the chain store firm. The local stores choose to raise the price or lower the price based their own mind when the supply in market surpasses the demand. When the supply in market is far less than the demand, the stores synchronously raise prices, even though a local store only have the incomplete information of their nearest neighboring supermarket. We find the critical equation for the balance point between the action of supplier and the action of chain store management based on game theory and statistical physics. The critical equation can identify the Nash equilibrium point of the non-cooperative game between the manufacturer and the chain-store seller, and reveal different levels of collective operations. This statistical physics method also holds for more complicate supply chains and economic systems.}

Local binary pattern is one of the visual descriptors and can be used as a powerful feature extractor for texture classification. In this paper, a novel representation for face recognition is proposed, called it Bilateral Line Local Binary Patterns (BL-LBP). This scheme is an extension of Line Local Binary Patterns descriptors in the statistical learning subspace. The present bilateral descriptors are fused with an ensemble learning of calibrated SVM models. The performance of this scheme is evaluated using 5 standard face databases. It is found that it is robust against illumination variation, diverse facial expressions and head pose variations and its recognition accuracy reaches 98 percent, running on a mobile device with a processing speed of 63 ms per face. Results suggest that our proposed method can be very useful for the vision systems that have limited resources where the computational cost is critical.

We study in this paper the time evolution of stock markets using a statistical physics approach. We consider an ensemble of agents who sell or buy a good according to several factors acting on them: the majority of the neighbors, the market ambiance, the variation of the price and some specific measure applied at a given time. Each agent is represented by a spin having a number of discrete states q or continuous states, describing the tendency of the agent for buying or selling. The market ambiance is represented by a parameter T which plays the role of the temperature in physics: low T corresponds to a calm market, high T to a turbulent one. We show that there is a critical value of T, say T_c, where strong fluctuations between individual states lead to a disordered situation in which there is no majority: the numbers of sellers and buyers are equal, namely the market clearing. The specific measure, by the government or by economic organisms, is parameterized by $H$ applied on the market at the time t₁ and removed at the time t₂. We have used Monte Carlo simulations to study the time evolution of the price as functions of those parameters. In particular we show that the price strongly fluctuates near T_c and there exists a critical value H_c above which the boosting effect remains after H is removed. Our model replicates the stylized facts in finance (time-independent price variation), volatility clustering (time-dependent dynamics) and persistent effect of a temporary shock. The second party of the paper deals with the price variation using a time-dependent mean-field theory. By supposing that the sellers and the buyers belong to two distinct communities with their characteristics different in both intra-group and inter-group interactions, we find the price oscillation with time. Results are shown and discussed.

Real data obtained from ship in operation are processed and analyzed in this paper. The intention was to provide software which would predict ship’s fuel consumption in some future time instant. It is showed that it is possible to develop such software based on numeric fitting of known data. In order to check how well the prediction of future fuel consumption is, we used only the first half of data for obtaining prediction curve. The second part of data was used to compare different prediction curves goodness. Hence, the presented research used actually a “real future data” and forecasted future data, which are used to numerically evaluate goodness of prediction. The research is of interest for companies logistics, to provide adequate fuel for fleet when and where actually needed. It is concluded that there are several prediction functions which satisfy used statistical quality measures.