Countless disasters have resulted from climate change, causing severe damage to infrastructure and the economy. These disasters have significant societal impacts, necessitating mental health services for the millions affected. To prepare for and respond effectively to such events, it is crucial to understand people's emotions and the life incidents they experience both before and after a disaster strikes. In this case study, we mined the emotions and life incidents expressed on Twitter during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. Between August 20 and August 30, we collected a dataset of approximately 400,000 public tweets related to the storm. Using a BERT-based model, we predicted the emotions associated with each tweet. Following emotion prediction, we applied various natural language processing techniques to analyze the content of the tweets, aiming to uncover the 'topics' discussed alongside specific 'emotions.' To efficiently identify these topics, we utilized the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) technique for topic modeling, which allowed us to bypass manual content analysis and extract meaningful patterns from the data. However, rather than stopping at topic identification, we further refined our analysis by integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and Large Language Models (LLM). The GNN was employed to generate embeddings and construct a similarity graph of the tweets, which was then used to optimize clustering. This step ensured that related tweets were accurately grouped together based on their content and context. Subsequently, we used an LLM to automatically generate descriptive names for each event cluster. This advanced approach allowed us to identify and label life incidents automatically, providing a nuanced understanding of the key issues faced by the community during the hurricane. The results revealed significant emotional shifts as the hurricane reached its most devastating phase. These shifts coincided with pressing concerns and demands from the population, such as evacuation plans, animal safety, safety updates, public policy, help requests, flood impacts, and the spread of fake news. By combining GNN and LLM for automatic event name prediction, our study not only mapped out the emotions but also accurately categorized the specific life incidents that were most relevant during the disaster, offering critical insights for disaster preparedness and response strategies.

Digital Twin (DT) technology is a pivotal innovation within the built environment industry, facilitating digital transformation through advanced data integration and analytics. DTs have demonstrated significant benefits in building design, construction, and asset management, including optimizing lifecycle energy use, enhancing operational efficiency, enabling predictive maintenance, and improving user adaptability. By integrating real-time data from IoT sensors with advanced analytics, DTs provide dynamic and actionable insights for better decision-making and resource management. Despite these promising benefits, several challenges impede the widespread adoption of DT technology, such as technological integration, data consistency, organisational adaptation, and cybersecurity concerns. Addressing these challenges requires inter-disciplinary collaboration, standardization of data formats, and the development of universal design and development platforms for DTs. This paper provides a comprehensive review of DT definitions, applications, capabilities, and challenges within the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industries. This paper provides important insights for researchers and professionals, helping them gain a more comprehensive and detailed view of DT. The findings also demonstrate the significant impact that DTs can have on this sector, contributing to advancing DT implementations and promoting sustainable and efficient building management practices. Ultimately, DT technology is set to revolutionize the AEC industries by enabling autonomous, data-driven decision-making and optimizing building operations for enhanced productivity and performance.

Recent global trends related to the increasing use of e-commerce are becoming a challenge for courier transport especially in the last-mile process of delivering products to the final retail recipient. One of the delivery methods is the personal collection of the parcel in an automated post box, available 24/7 for the customer. This research aims to define the most important attributes of the courier services quality, including the delivery of parcels through automated sending and receiving parcel lockers, leveraging advanced technologies, data, and connectivity to enhance the quality of life, sustainability, and efficiency for city residents. The research was based on a preliminary selection of the most important features of parcel lockers’ service quality, which were extracted from the analysis of scientific literature and previous research. The analysis was carried out by conducting a survey among city parcel locker users that provided data coded according to the dimensions of the Kano model. This allowed to conclude that the location of parcel stations, ensuring improvements for the disabled, adjusting the size of the parcel to the size of the box, proper placement of the parcel in the box and a properly functioning dedicated application are the most important features in the process of automatic delivery of parcels to recipients in urban areas. This paper enriches the literature on customer service quality of self-service technologies for last-mile delivery with the use of automated parcel lockers.

The reasonableness and accuracy of engineering design are often assessed through the use of a variety of structural design analysis software, which are then compared and verified. However, it is challenging for a single analysis software to meet the diverse and complex design requirements. In order to meet the specific engineering requirements, it is necessary to convert the MIDAS result model into an ANSYS structural model and conduct a nonlinear analysis and simulation in ANSYS. Nevertheless, the existing interface is unable to facilitate direct conversion of the model. Accordingly, this paper presents a Python-based ANSYS APDL program that enables the complete conversion of MIDAS GEN structural models to ANSYS finite element models. The program is capable of converting a range of data, including material, section, element, connection, load, node mass, constraint, time history function, and so forth. The program is capable of converting specific connection units, including elastic and general connection units. Additionally, the beam-column section direction, beam end freedom release, rigid element, and special anti-rocking structure of the structure can be considered. Ultimately, the theatre model is transformed. Following a comparison of the analysis results, it was found that the mass and mode of the model before and after the transformation were essentially identical. The maximum error of the first six orders of the structure is 2.95%, with the structural displacement under gravity load remaining essentially unchanged. The research and analysis demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of the MIDAS GEN conversion ANSYS program. The conversion program significantly reduces the time required for direct modeling in ANSYS, enhancing work efficiency. The study has considerable practical significance for the seismic sway design and analysis of buildings based on vibration isolation design.

This paper proposes an omnidirectional conveyor as a novel alternative to existing omnidirectional conveyors. With symmetric and compact layout, this new structure ensures consistent kinematics and enhanced flexibility in trajectory planning. The kinematic model of the proposed omnidirectional conveyor is developed and verified through simulation in CoppeliaSim. Four typical classes of trajectories are generated and verified in the simulation environment. Using PID control, the actual trajectories of a package on the conveyor closely match the desired trajectories. In addition, this paper outlines the workspace and corresponding wheel patterns for the conveyor, demonstrating how different supported wheel patterns emerge when packages move across various areas of the conveyor. The discussion extends to fault tolerance and obstacle avoidance, examining the workspace and wheel patterns with one or two omni wheels failed. Furthermore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis on the feasible desired movements for the packages on the conveyor under the constrained wheel speed. This provides insights and guidance on trajectory planning and design of the conveyor.

The spread of false information can significantly harm public opinion, underscoring the importance of accurately identifying untrustworthy news. This paper presents an innovative machine learning (ML) tool, TMining, designed to evaluate news credibility and facilitate various text-mining tasks. By examining a range of ML methodologies alongside preprocessing techniques, we aim to boost the system's effectiveness. Our research meticulously assesses different datasets, highlights the impact of applying stemming techniques, and employs Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIMEs) to shed light on the rationale behind model predictions. The outcomes reveal a notable enhancement in both the precision and clarity of the news verification process. The ultimate version of the model has been made available as an Application Program Interface (API), and its source code has been shared openly, encouraging further exploration and collaboration within the scientific community. This initiative advances our ability to discern manipulative context from fictitious content and promotes transparency and understanding in the domain of ML applications.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a complex mental health condition characterized by alternating periods of mania and depression. This review provides a comprehensive overview of BD, focusing on its genetics, causal hypotheses, clinical signs and evolution, potential biomarkers with an emphasis on electroencephalography (EEG), and treatment options. Genetic studies have identified several susceptibility genes and polygenic risk scores, highlighting the heritable nature of BD. Various causal hypotheses, including monoamine dysregulation, kindling, circadian rhythm disruptions, and neuroinflammation, have been proposed to explain its pathophysiology. The clinical course of BD is characterized by recurrent episodes of mania/hypomania and depression, with significant heterogeneity among individuals. EEG and other biomarkers hold promise for improving diagnosis, predicting treatment response, and elucidating the neurobiological underpinnings of BD. Current treatment options include pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, and neuromodulation techniques, which can be tailored to individual needs based on clinical presentation and response to treatment. Future research should focus on identifying more specific biomarkers, developing novel treatments, and optimizing existing therapies to improve outcomes for individuals with BD.

Art's unique style and creativity are essential in defining a work's identity, conveying emotions, and shaping audience perception. Recent advancements in diffusion models have revolutionized art design, animation, and gaming, particularly in generating original artwork and visual identities. However, traditional creative processes face challenges such as slow innovation, high costs, and limited scalability. Consequently, deep learning has emerged as a promising solution for enhancing painting-style creative design. In this paper, we present the Painting-Style Design Assistant Network (PDANet), a groundbreaking network architecture designed for advanced style transformation. Our work is supported by the Painting-42 dataset, a meticulously curated collection of 4,055 artworks from 42 illustrious Chinese painters, capturing the aesthetic nuances of Chinese painting and offering invaluable design references. Additionally, we introduce a lightweight Identity-Net, designed to enhance large-scale text-to-image (T2I) models by aligning internal knowledge with external control signals. This innovative Identity-Net seamlessly integrates image prompts into the U-Net encoder, enabling the generation of diverse and consistent images. Through extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations, our approach has demonstrated superior performance compared to existing methods, producing high-quality, versatile content with broad applicability across various creative domains. Our work not only advances the field of AI-driven art but also offers a new paradigm for the future of creative design.

This paper deals with the formulation of a Cobot kinematic model by developing both the direct and inverse kinematics and choosing the noa transformation matrix for defining the end-effector position and orientation with respect to the base frame. These algorithms have been validated via software in Matlab environment and by means of suitable experimental tests, which have been carried out by using a UR5e Cobot. Moreover, a specific industrial application regarding the robotized assembling of a multi-cylinder IC engine, has been designed in terms of layout and corresponding automatic cycle that is intended as a sequence of the robot elementary actions. In particular, the proposed robotized cell is composed by the UR5e Cobot along with its controller and a suitable electropneumatic circuit that includes a PLC with its user interface, which are both governed by means of a specific electronic board and a switch control box. The IC engine in scale of 1:5 and specific parts of the end-effector, which takes the role of vacuum gripper and torque limiting screwdriver, have been designed and manufactured by using a 3D printer.

The Covid19 pandemic and the current wars in some countries have put incredible pressures on the global economy. Challenges for the U.S. include not only economic factors, major disruptions and reorganizations of the supply chains, but also those of national security and global geopolitics. This unprecedented situation makes predicting economic crisis for the coming years crucial yet challenging. In this paper, we propose a method based on various machine-learning models to predict the probability of a recession for the US economy in the next year. We collect the U.S’ monthly macroeconomics indicators and recession data from January of 1983 to December of 2023 to predict the probability of an economic recession in 2024. The performance of the individual economics indicator for the coming year was predicted separately, and then all of the the predicted indicators were used to forecast a possible economic recession. Our results showed that the U.S. will face a high probability of being in a recession period in the last quarter of 2024.

Droughts have negative impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth. Effective monitoring and accurate forecasting of drought occurrences and trends are crucial for minimizing drought losses and mitigating their spatial and temporal effects. In this study, trend dynamics in monthly total rainfall time series measured at Cape Town International Airport were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) were examined. Additionally, we utilized hybrid prediction method that combined the model with the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) technique, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network (i.e. CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM) to forecast SPI values of 6-, 9-, and 12-months using rainfall data between 1995 and 2020 from Cape Town International Airport meteorological rainfall stations. The results demonstrate the following essential points: (1) The trend analysis results of the total monthly rainfall values indicate a significant decreasing trend with the negative z-score (MK= -3.7541 and MMK= - 4.0773). ITA also indicated a significant downwards trend of rainfall in the study area. (2) As the forecasting horizon increases, the prediction accuracy of the models and CEEMDAN-combined models gradually improves, reaching their optimum performance at the 12-month horizon. (3) CEEMDAN efficiently stabilizes time-series data, resulting in greater prediction accuracy in the hybrid model compared to individual models at all timescales. (4) The RMSE and R2 values for the hybrid CEEMDAN-ARIMA-LSTM model at a 12-month forecasting horizon are 0.042 and 0.995, demonstrating the applicability of this hybrid approach for drought forecasting.

This study explores an optimal strategy for muscle force estimation by integrating simplified cost functions with detailed muscle models, demonstrating significant advantages over traditional complex methods. Using elbow flexion as a case study, we characterize the interplay between muscle models and cost functions, showing that accurate muscle force estimations can be achieved effectively without electromyography (EMG) data while also substantially reducing computational demands. Validated against established bio-mechanical data, our models confirm their accuracy in predicting muscle behavior. This approach has profound implications for enhancing rehabilitation protocols and athletic training, providing a more accessible and adaptable tool for muscle force analysis. It broadens the applicability of muscle force estimation in clinical and sports settings and paves the way for future innovations in bio-mechanical research.

This study investigates the ergodic behavior of brain waves through an innovative multidisciplinary approach, integrating insights from neuroscience, physics, economics, and biology. By examining the statistical properties and dynamic characteristics of alpha (8-13 Hz), beta (13-30 Hz), theta (4-8 Hz), and delta (0.5-4 Hz) brain waves, we argue that the ergodic nature of these neural oscillations can be comprehensively understood and quantified using analytical tools from diverse scientific disciplines. Our research begins with a thorough review of current neurophysiological understanding of brain wave generation and propagation. We then introduce the concept of ergodicity, originating from statistical physics, and explore its applicability to neural systems. The study employs advanced time series analysis techniques and stochastic process models, borrowed from economics and physics, to analyze large-scale electroencephalographic (EEG) datasets. Key findings suggest that brain waves exhibit ergodic properties under specific physiological conditions, with implications for understanding neural information processing and brain state transitions. We propose a novel framework that characterizes the ergodic behavior of brain waves across different frequency bands and cognitive states. This framework provides new insights into the relationship between local neural dynamics and global brain function.Furthermore, we discuss the biological implications of ergodic brain waves, considering evolutionary perspectives and potential adaptive advantages. Our analysis reveals how the ergodic properties of neural oscillations may contribute to the brain's ability to balance stability and flexibility, a crucial aspect of adaptive behavior and cognition. The study's findings have significant implications for multiple fields. In neuroscience, our framework offers new tools for analyzing brain function and may inform the development of innovative therapeutic interventions for neurological disorders. In physics and complex systems theory, it provides a concrete biological example of ergodic behavior in a highly complex, non-linear system. For the field of economics, it demonstrates the successful application of financial modeling techniques to biological time series data. This research contributes to a more holistic understanding of the brain as a complex, adaptive system operating at the intersection of physics, biology, and information processing. It also opens new avenues for future research, including investigations into the relationship between ergodic properties of brain waves and consciousness, cognitive flexibility, and the emergence of complex behavior from neural ensembles.

Good communication skills are essential for prospective workers, particularly college students, to clearly convey their abilities and understanding during job interviews. Despite the high demand for strong communication skills among employers, many students struggle with inadequate experience and skills, leading to reduced confidence and lower chances of securing desired jobs. Existing tools and resources for improving communication skills are limited, especially free ones, leaving students underprepared and less confident in interviews. To address this issue, a comprehensive solution is needed that provides free, customizable tools to enhance students' interview communication skills. Invisor is a web-based self-interview training application that leverages AI and Machine Learning to analyze users' behavior, responses, and facial expressions during simulated interviews. Accessible via desktop, laptop, or mobile devices, Invisor offers interactive and voice-recorded feedback to help students prepare for interviews effectively. By employing AI technologies, Invisor generates personalized interview questions based on job descriptions, enhancing the realism of the interview experience and providing tailored feedback to improve users' responses. Developed using agile methodologies, Invisor has undergone iterative enhancements, integrating user and stakeholder feedback promptly to improve usability and functionality. The combination of AI-driven simulations and agile development practices enables Invisor to meet current user needs and anticipate future demands, providing a robust tool for interview preparation in a competitive job market. This paper outlines the development and implementation of Invisor, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing interview skills and confidence among students and job seekers.

We developed a novel machine learning (ML) algorithm with the goal of producing transparent models (i.e. understandable-by-humans) while also flexibly accounting for nonlinearity and interactions. Our method is based on ranked sparsity, and allows for flexibility and user-control in varying the shade of the opacity of black-box machine learning methods. The main tenet of ranked sparsity is that an algorithm should be more skeptical of higher-order polynomials and interactions \textit{a~priori} compared to main effects, and hence the inclusion of these more complex terms should require a higher level of evidence. In this work, we put our new ranked sparsity algorithm (as implemented in the open-source R package, `sparseR`) to the test in a predictive model "bakeoff" (i.e. a benchmarking study of ML algorithms applied "out-of-the-box," that is, with no special tuning). Algorithms were trained on a diverse set of simulated and real-world data sets from the Penn Machine Learning Benchmarks database, addressing both regression and binary classification problems. We evaluate the extent to which our human-centered algorithm can attain predictive accuracy that rivals popular black-box approaches such as neural networks, random forests, and support vector machines, while also producing more interpretable models. Using out-of-bag error as a meta-outcome, we describe the properties of data sets in which human-centered approaches can perform as well as or better than black-box approaches. We find that interpretable approaches predicted optimally or within 5% of the optimal method in most real-world data sets. We provide a more in-depth comparison of the performances of random forests to interpretable methods for several case studies, including exemplars in which algorithms performed similarly, and several cases when interpretable methods underperformed. This work provides a strong rationale for including human-centered transparent algorithms such as ours in predictive modeling applications.

One of the primary causes of the mechanical seal failure is rotor vibration. Traditional dynamic seal models often would not be able to fully explaining the failure mechanisms. The seal dynamic models proposed in this paper, including those developed by the authors, prove valuable in predicting seal dynamics during operation in specific turbomachinery and in explaining the causes of seal failure. The single-mass dynamic model is suitable for analyzing contact mechanical seal and simple design dry gas seals dynamics. The two-mass dynamic model is used for investigating operational dynamics processes in classical dry gas seals under complex loading conditions. The three-mass dynamic model is used to study various complex mechanical seal types. This model is able to determine the normal operating condition range and to explain leakage mechanisms in the presence of excessive rotor vibrations.

Signal preprocessing and feature extraction are two important and necessary steps of data analysis. In signal analysis, typically these two steps are implemented through multiple algorithms. Moreover, the significant parameters in most algorithms are set empirically. We have developed an algorithm that can preserve and highlight characteristic waveforms while attenuating non-feature waveforms. The parameters in the algorithm are set through difference analysis. We have conducted experiments on both clinical and open-source ECG data, obtaining effective test results.

Direct competitions involve competitors that mutually contend for the same resource or objective. A controlled, well-documented, and data-rich field involving direct competition is represented by sports. Usually the winner of sports competitions is believed to be the one with the greatest talent, however, there are other factors that contribute to the outcome of a competition, there are in fact random, unpredictable events that can change the outcome of a competition. For this reason, if one wants to understand the properties of a competition is necessary to have a method to evaluate the importance of the talent or aptitude of a competitor, as opposed to the importance of chance, in determining the outcome of the competition itself. In this work we study the sport of tennis using the data obtained from the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) tournaments. We construct an agent-based model that is able to produce data analogous to the real one; this model depends on three parameters, the talent, the action of chance, and the weight of talent. In particular, we don't fix the values of these parameters and we fit the model results using a genetic algorithm, in this way, we study all the possible combinations of parameters, in the parameter space, that are able to reproduce the real systems data. We show that the model fits well the real data only for limited regions of the parameter space. On these limited regions of the parameter space are possible further optimization of the model results, limiting the values of parameters. In this way, our agent-based model, by means of this genetic algorithm calibration, is able to provide us with useful information without any a priori constraints.

In this study, a cholera infection model with the bilinear infection rate is developed by considering the perturbation of the infection rate by the mean-reverting process. First of all, we give the existence of a globally unique positive solution for a stochastic system at arbitrary initial value. On this basis, the sufficient condition for the model to have an ergodic stationary distribution is given by constructing proper Lyapunov functions and tight sets. This indicates in a biological sense the long-term persistence of cholera infection. Furthermore, after transforming the stochastic model to an relevant linearised system, an accurate expression for the probability density function of the stochastic model around a quasi-endemic equilibrium is derived. Subsequently, the sufficient condition to make the disease extinct is also derived. Eventually, the theoretical findings are shown by numerical simulations. Numerical simulations show that the impact of regression speed and fluctuation intensity on stochastic systems.

To address the requirements of sonar imaging, such as high receiving sensitivity, wide bandwidth, wide receiving angle, an AlN PMUT with an optimized ratio of 0.6 for the piezoelectric layer diameter to backside cavity diameter is proposed in this paper. A sample AlN PMUT is designed and fabricated with SOI substrate-based bulk MEMS process. The characterization test result of the sample demonstrates a -6 dB bandwidth of approximately 500 kHz and a measured receiving sensitivity per unit area of at 1.37 V/μPa/mm2, which significantly surpasses the performance of previously reported PMUTs. The -6 dB horizontal angles of the AlN PMUT at 300 kHz and 500 kHz are measured 68.30° and 54.24°, respectively. To achieve an accurate prediction of its characteristics when being packaged and assembled in a receive array, numerical simulations with the consideration of film stress are conducted. The numerical result shows a maximum deviation of ±7% in the underwater receiving sensitivity across the frequency range of 200 kHz to 1000 kHz and a deviation of about 0.33% in the peak of underwater receiving sensitivity comparing to the experimental data. By such good agreement, the simulation method reveals its capability of providing theoretical foundation for enhancing the uniformity of the AlN PMUTs in future studies.

In his Cynefin classification of system behaviours, Snowden (2007), posits that his Simple (Clear ) and even Complicated system categories are sufficiently understandable to be amenable to the traditional methods of system analysis and modelling. Here, relationships between entities in the system are clear and unambiguous and they behave predictably. So, we can build mathematical “models” to describe how the system is expected to function in different situations. Leaving aside his fourth category, Chaotic, as too hard for the moment, this paper focusses on the third category, Complex systems. Yaneer Bar-Yam [1998] defined "complex systems" as systems that "have multiple interacting components, whose collective behaviour cannot be simply inferred from the behaviour of components." So, the traditional system modelling approach of decomposition into components and attempting to build up a picture of system performance from individual pieces, alone, is no longer appropriate for this class. The problem is that most of the methods we currently employ, and particularly the methods that attempt to make the case that these systems are safe, (such as Fault trees, FMEA. and Root Cause Analysis), rely on this decomposition into components and attempt to make the parts more reliable individually. Even the more systemic approaches, such as Reason’s (1990) Swiss Cheese Model, and Leveson’s System Theoretic Analysis (STPA) (2004), encourage adding layers of protection, barriers, strengthened control loops and better safety critical systems, in the hope that they are making the systems safer. But without a valid model to test the effectiveness of these add-ons, we cannot be sure that they will not have an opposite effect, of making the systems even more complex, unreliable and unpredictable. For complex systems, the careful gathering and documentation of system components and their relationships is still a necessary first step, but we need an additional capacity to model these complex systems to test out and prove they work safely and successfully in the real world. (not just draw fixed component relationships as system “models” (wiring diagrams)) In the last 10 years, an original approach developed by Hollnagel, (2012), to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from and independent of component details), has now been developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, such as MBSE( Goldberg (1994)), and can pull it all together in a dynamic system model from which analysts can discern how it really works in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. The paper describes how this methodology developed and how it is currently used to model real situations, to analyse incidents and anticipate events.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

This study aims to determine the impact of the type of ICT usage on household income from main vegetables, agriculture (including main vegetables), and total income. This study is based on surveys and interviews with vegetable farmers using structured questionnaires conducted in three villages in Indonesia, including Cianjur, Sleman, and Malang in West Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java, respectively. The data were collected from 375 respondents selected in each region from November 2021 to March 2022. An econometric model called the multivariate linear regression (MLR) model is used to assess heterogeneous factors that influence the possibility of increasing the income of vegetable farmers. The study found that variables that use ICT as a primary variable, household, marketing, geographical characteristics, and immediate source information in agriculture have a significant impact on household income (P < 0.01) from primary vegetables, agriculture, and total income, with multiple R squares of 70.5, 72.0, 73.7% and F statistics of 28.48, 30.66, and 33.34, respectively. In summary, this novel study shows that the five categories of information technology used in farming and selling of harvest have a positive impact on household incomes

This paper serves as a seamless continuation of the previous work titled "Special Spirals are Produced by the ROTASE Galactic Spiral Equations with the Sequential Prime Numbers." Upon revisiting the data, a noteworthy observation emerged: the special spirals can be meticulously aligned with the prime spiral on a point-by-point basis through careful scaling and rotation for the parameter ρ remaining a constant greater than one. As ρ increases, both the scaling factor and rotation angle exhibit a corresponding augmentation, albeit with an intriguing caveat—the rotation angle asymptotically approaches its limit of 90°. Notably, the galactic spiral can be perceived as a remarkably close approximation of the Archimedean spiral, with the degree of proximity increasing as ρ grows larger. Furthermore, an intriguing correspondence arises when ρ takes on a value of 1; at this value, the galactic spiral bears a striking resemblance to the Fermat spiral, the space between two consecutive spiral loops undergoes a continuous reduction as the loop's radius expands, yet it never diminishes to zero; simultaneously, the area between two successive loops experiences an augmentation with the value of ρ.

The evaluation of tourism sustainability has become of paramount importance for researchers and decision-makers to better protect tourist destinations, especially with the continuous increase in the number of tourists and visitors that alter the natural components of the environment and degrade ecosystems. Therefore, the use of geographical data is of great significance, particularly in environmental monitoring and land management, due to its ease of use and availability. However, calculating composite indices for sustainability involves several steps and requires a basic understanding of existing models. This article describes the development and design of a package of plugins in QGIS that serves as an easy-to-use tool for processing and automatically calculating economic, environmental, social indices, and the overall index of tourist sustainability. These plugins have been built in Python and designed as QGIS software plugins.

Resource pricing in cloud computing has become one of the main challenges for cloud providers. The challenge is determining a fair and appropriate price to satisfy users and resource providers. To determine a fair price, it is necessary to consider the conditions and needs of both parties: provider and user. This research tries to provide a pricing mechanism for cloud computing based on game theory. The proposed mechanism takes into account three factors including fault possibility, interaction between virtual machines, and energy consumption to reach a fair price. In the proposed game, the provider decides on the price of the virtual machine which can be offered to the user on each physical machine and the user decides between the virtual machines offered to run its application. The whole game is implemented as a function of the resource broker component. The proposed mechanism is simulated and evaluated using the CloudSim simulator. Its performance is compared with several previous recent mechanisms. According to the results, the proposed mechanism has been able to determine a more reasonable price for the user and the provider which increases the overall profitability of the cloud system.

In this work, quiescence is added to the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model with demography. In order to investigate consequences of quiescence in the infection process in more depth, we use stochastic simulations on the stochastic version of model that we built. This method provides a more accurate picture of the dynamics of infectious diseases by taking into consideration the inherent randomness in the disease processes. We examine the effects of quiescence on the number of infected people using simulations. The results, presented in histograms depicting the distribution of infected individuals, reveal a notable trend: the mean number of infected individuals is higher when quiescence is incorporated into the dynamics. These finding emphasizes the dynamic influence of quiescence on infectious disease spread. The higher mean number of infections during periods of quiescence highlights the need for public health strategies that are flexible enough to focused interventions during these times to reduce the possibility of an increase in infections.

The crosslinking behavior of polyethylene (PE) determines its exceptional performance and application. In this study, we investigated the crosslinking behaviors of different PE resins through model simulation and rheological methods. Specifically, the mathematical equation of "S" model was established for PE resin. According to this equation, the optimal maximum gel content for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) was found to be around 85%. Moreover, the maximum crosslinking degrees for different PE resins depended largely on their density and molecular weight. The melt viscosities before crosslinking in PE resins were highly influenced by their melt index. The higher melt indexes resulted in the lower storage moduli, improving melt processability during processing. In addition, the crosslinking rates of PE resins were strongly influenced by peroxide concentration, independent of PE resin structures. For high molecular weight and low-density PE resins, they exhibited decreased ti values, increased A0 values, and decreased k6 values. However, there were no noticeable variations in the values of k2 and phi among different PE resins. And all simulated modeling outcomes showed the remarkable consistency with the experimental rheological data. These findings are of utmost significance in the industrial manufacture of PE resin.

The realm of natural language processing has always been fascinated by the intricacies of sentence semantics. The emergence of context-aware word representations, especially from pre-trained models like ELMO and BERT, has revolutionized several semantic tasks including but not limited to, question answering, text categorization, and sentiment analysis. Despite these advancements, the integration of supplementary knowledge, particularly syntactic, to augment semantic comprehension in models remains an area ripe for exploration. This paper introduces the Syntactic Enhancement Network (SEN), a pioneering method for synergizing syntactic elements with established pre-trained language models. Our approach encompasses a dual-phase evaluation: initially, we delve into the syntactic augmentation of both RNN-based and Transformer-based language models; subsequently, we test our SEN's proficiency in two specific domains: the task of sentence completion and the extraction of biological relationships. The results are striking, with SEN achieving a stellar 91.2% accuracy in sentence completion—surpassing baseline models by a substantial 37.8%. In the context of biological relation extraction, SEN demonstrates competitive prowess with a 75.1% F1 score.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) stands as a debilitating neurodegenerative condition characterized by the progressive degeneration of motor neurons. Despite extensive research in various model animals, the cellular signal mechanisms of ALS remain elusive, impeding the development of efficacious treatments. Among these models, a well-characterized and diminutive organism, Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans), has arisen as a potent tool for investigating the molecular and cellular dimensions of ALS pathogenesis. This review summarizes the contributions of C. elegans models to our comprehension of ALS, emphasizing pivotal findings pertaining to genetics, protein aggregation, cellular pathways, and potential therapeutic strategies. We analyze both the merits and constraints of C. elegans system in the realm of ALS research, and point towards future investigations that could bridge the chasm between C. elegans foundational discoveries and clinical applications.

AbstractTo overcome the negative impacts on the environment and other problems associated with fossil fuels have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Solar energy is one of the best renewable energy sources with the least negative impacts on the environment. Different countries have formulated solar energy policies to reduce dependence on fossil fuel and increasing domestic energy production by solar energy. According to the 2010 BP Statistical Energy Survey, the world cumulative installed solar energy capacity was 22928.9 MW in 2009, a change of 46.9% compared to 2008. In this study, a PV generation system has been modeled and installed considering uncertain whether based on the hourly wind speed data of New York City (NYC) of year 2014. Regression models has been used to forecast the hourly, weekly, and monthly wind speed of NYC year 2014. Design of experiment (DOE) has been used to determine the optimal panel size (area), the battery capacity size, and other levels of factors.

Camera malfunctions or loss of storage elements in imaging devices may lead to loss of important image information or random impulse noise interference. Low rank is one of the important prior information in image optimization processing. This paper uses different low-rank constraint models of the image matrices to recover the impulse interference satellite images. Firstly, an overview of image inpainting models based on nuclear norm, truncated nuclear norm, weighted nuclear norm, and matrix-factorization-based F-norm is presented, and corresponding optimiza-tion iterative algorithms are provided. Then, we conducted experiments under three types of pulse interference and provided visual and numerical results. Finally, it is concluded that the WSVT_ADMM method based on the weighted nuclear norm can obtain the best image inpainting results; The UV_ADMM method based on F norm of matrix factorization has the least computa-tion time and can be used for large-scale low-rank matrix computation; The WSVT_ADMM method based on weighted nuclear norm and the TSVT_ ADMM method based on truncated nuclear norms can significantly improve the repair effect compared to the nuclear norm-based methods such as SVT, SVP, and n_ADMM.

The precipitation, flocculation, and deposition of asphaltene cause severe formation damage within a reservoir and shorten a well’s productive life. Pressure depletion is one factor that contributes to asphaltene precipitation during production; therefore, the first step in managing asphaltene is to determine the onset pressure of the precipitation. While there are numerous equation of state models that can be used to predict the onset pressure, these models are complex and heavily reliant on tuning parameters. Using multivariate linear regression, this work attempts to develop a simple and accurate thermodynamic model for predicting the upper precipitation onset pressure under pressure depletion above the bubble point pressure (Pb) at various temperatures. A total of 94 experimental data points from 37 published crude oil data sets were compiled from the literature. To develop the model, 59 experimental data points were used as training data and 35 experimental data points as testing data. According to the results of the multicollinearity test, the bubble point pressure, temperature, resins, and saturate-to-aromatic ratio were chosen as predictors. The upper onset pressure data with comparable trends were clustered, and unsupervised recognition of three distinct cluster groups was performed. For each cluster identified, a multivariate linear regression model was developed. The model was chosen based on Mallow’s coefficient of determination (Cp), adjusted R² (statistical measure of fit), and S (standard error of the regression slope). The developed model was tested using a data set, and the results showed an adjusted R² of 96.25%, with a mean absolute error of 4.1%. The model was randomly applied to 15 data points to compare it to perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC SAFT) and the Peng-Robinson equation of state models and to the multivariate regression models of Fahim (2007) and Ameli et al. (2016). The results showed that the mean absolute error for predicting the asphaltene precipitation onset pressure was 2.82% using Peng-Robinson, 2.36% using the PC SAFT equation of state, 23.96% using the Fahim model, 24.80% using the model reported by Ameli et al., and 2.39% using the newly developed multivariate regression model. The developed multivariate model appears to be as accurate as the PC SAFT equation of state modeling with tuning parameters. The primary advantage of multivariate regression is that, unlike the PC SAFT equation of state model, it does not require saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA)-based characterization methodologies or rigorous parameter tuning. It is simple to use, quick, and it produces results in a short period of time.

It is known that the source of a tectonic earthquake in the framework of the theory of elasticity and viscoelasticity is considered as a displacement along a certain fault surface. Usually, when describing the source, the geometry of the fault surface is simplified to a flat rectangular area. The displacement vector is assumed to be constant. In this paper, we propose a model of an earthquake source in the form of a displacement with a constant vector along a stochastic surface. A number of standard assumptions were made when modeling. We take into account only the elastic properties of the medium. We consider the Earth’s crust as a half-space and assume that the medium is homogeneous and isotropic. For the mathematical description of the earthquake source, we use the classical force equivalent of displacement along the fault. This is the distribution of double pairs of forces. The field of displacements under the action of body forces is found through a combination of Mindlin nuclei of strain. The paper presents solutions for strike-slip fault. To obtain a stochastic fault surface, we propose to introduce a random deformation of a rectangular flat surface. The paper presents the results of a computational experiment comparing the levels and regions of relative deformations of the Earth’s crust in the case of displacement along a flat rupture surface and along a stochastic one. In the case of a stochastic surface, the regions of relative deformations become asymmetric. The developed model will help to indirectly take into account various mechanical properties of the Earth’s crust when modeling deformations caused by earthquakes.

The main purpose is to create a model for managing sustainability in the metro and its entities in Gauteng. Within this context, the study will focus on the issue of measures, outcomes, and impacts in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ). The study will clarify a public sector application in municipal entities of the CoJ because sustainability is not well understood or used in the public sector. This article investigates the sustainability phenomena in a metropolitan setting, including the CoJ and its municipal entities. The purpose is rather two-fold. A focus group discussion was held with CoJ senior executive managers to provide feedback on the sustainability model. The information and insights were used to refine the sustainability model to manage sustainability in Coj and its enti-ties. The data was analysed using thematic analysis to refine the sustainability model. The re-sults indicated that sustainability is a function of having a shared understanding of sustainabil-ity, the ability to mainstream and integrate sustainability thinking into all programmes and ac-tivities, leadership commitment, requisite competencies, and monitoring and evaluation of sus-tainability. The implication for leadership is to ensure the alignment of sustainability to the strategic objec-tives of CoJ and to foreground any planning in CoJ with a sustainability lens. Achieving this focus requires a shared understanding, development of competencies, committed leadership to imple-ment measurement and impact framework, and adjusting plans based on monitoring and evalua-tion outcomes.

Interferon-beta is one of the most widely prescribed disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis patients. However, this treatment is only partially effective, and a significant proportion of patients do not respond to this drug. This paper proposes an alternative fuzzy logic system based on the opinion of a neurology expert to classify relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients: high, medium, and low responder to interferon-beta. Also, a pipeline prediction model trained with biomarkers associated to interferon-beta response is proposed for predicting whether patients are potential candidates to be treated with this drug, in order to avoid ineffective therapies. The classification results shows that the fuzzy system presents a 100% efficiency compared with an unsupervised hierarchical clustering method (52%). So, the performance of the prediction model is evaluated, and a 0.8 testing accuracy is achieved. Hence, a pipeline model including data standardization, data compression, and a learning algorithm, can be a useful tool for getting reliable predictions about the response to interferon-beta.

Prostate cancer is a common cancer among men and typically progresses slowly for several decades before becoming aggressive and spreading to other organs, leaving few treatment options. While large animals have been studied, the dog's prostate is anatomically similar to humans and has been used to study spontaneous prostate cancer. However, most research currently focuses on the mouse as a model organism due to the ability to genetically modify their prostatic tissues for molecular analysis. One hallmark in this research was the identification of the prostate-specific promoter Probasin, allowing for prostate-specific expression of transgenes. This has led to generations of mice with aggressive prostatic tumors through overexpression of the SV40 oncogene. The Probasin promoter is also used to drive Cre expression and allow researcher to generated prostate specific loss-of-function studies. Another landmark in the process of modeling prostate cancer in mice was orthoptic delivery of viral particles. This technology allows selective overexpression of oncogenes from lentivirus or the use of CRISPR to generate complex loss of function studies. These genetic modified models are complemented by classical xenografts of human prostate tumor cells in immune deficient mice. Overall, pre-clinical models have provided a portfolio of model systems to study and address complex mechanisms in prostate cancer for improved treatment options. This review will focus on the advances of each technique.

Aortic aneurysms (AA) occur in 4.8% of people causing 150,000 deaths annually. While endovascular aneurysm repairs reduce surgical morbidity, device-related failures (leak/displacement) are frequent highlighting the need for test models that better represent the mural geometry and compliance changes in human AAs. We aimed to develop and characterise an ex vivo porcine aortic model of AA. The optimal duration of tissue elastase exposure to emulate AA changes in elastin microstructure and content was determined using porcine aortic rings. Elastase-induced changes were quantified morphologically, and mechanical properties assessed via ring tensile testing. Subsequent experiments tested the potential for localised elastase treatment in a 1 cm segment of porcine aorta using a specially designed 3D printed test rig. The effect on pressure-diameter behaviour was investigated via inflation-extension testing. Elastase treatment produced time dependent decreases in elastin, resulting in an increased tensile modulus and circumferential length in the ring samples in the final phase of the J-shaped tissue stress-strain curves. In whole aortic segments, localised elastase-induced luminal degradation was successfully limited to a central region. The degree of elastin degradation achieved was sufficient to cause localised dilation with respect to controls under physiological pressures. Localised elastin degradation in porcine aortic segments is feasible and emulates the changes seen clinically in aortic aneurysms.

Historical and Endowment Properties are different from Heritage and cultural Properties, as Historical and Endowment properties are governed by a unique set of laws that Waqf recipients must abide by. Property that is entrusted is usually in the form of buildings, land or valuables which in preservation is not limited to time as long as the property can be utilized. Reliable information technology is needed to ensure data security both digitally and physically, while the rapid development of information technology demands information openness and this will be a challenge in itself. The objectives of this study include examining the collection of historical databases and endowments, the relationship between digital data and physical data and management organizations. The method of how to design a query model to display data is then analyzed whether the data conforms to the rules in waqf management. The results are expected to bring up accurate data between digital data and physical data and if there are differences into findings for the next analysis.

Mice are one of the frequently used animal models in science research whose behavioral characteristics can provide much valuable information in biology, neuroscience, and pharmacology. Nowadays, artificial intelligence is widely used in mice behavior analysis. Integrated AI systems such as ChatGPT and VisualGPT are already available, and we discuss the feasibility of MiceGPT to help researchers identify and classify mouse behavior more easily. We review the applications of mice behavior analysis, analyze the tasks of deep learning on these applications based on an AI pyramid, and finally summarize the AI approaches to solve these tasks. Based on these summaries, we propose three MiceGPT architectures to demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of MiceGPT.

Magnesium matrix composites have attracted significant attention due to their lightweight nature and impressive mechanical properties. However, the fabrication process for these alloy compo-sites is often time-consuming, expensive, and labor-intensive. To overcome these challenges, this study employed machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the mechanical properties of magnesium matrix composites. Regression models were utilized to forecast the yield strength of magnesium alloy composites reinforced with various materials. The study incorporated previous research on matrix type, reinforcement type, heat treatment, and mechanical working. The re-gression models employed in this study included decision tree regression, random forest re-gression, extra tree regression, and XGBoost regression. Model performance was assessed using metrics such as RMSE and R2. The XGBoost Regression model out-performed others, exhibiting an R2 value of 0.94 and the lowest error rate. Feature importance analysis indicated that the rein-forcement particle form had the greatest influence on the mechanical properties. The study iden-tified the optimized parameters for achieving the highest yield strength, which was 186.99 MPa. Overall, this study successfully demonstrates the effectiveness of ML as a valuable tool for opti-mizing the production parameters of magnesium matrix composites.

Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

Electromagnetic (EM) waves, used for purposes such as geophysical characterization, impact properties to be measured. This paper describes the effects of radio frequency (RF) waves on the hydraulic conductivity of glass beads and natural sand. A series of tests were conducted using a customized, rigid-wall, cylindrical permeameter inside a resonant cavity made of Plexiglas covered with electrically conductive transparent films. Constant head ASTM-D2434 [1] tests were performed to measure the samples’ hydraulic conductivity. RF stimulation was performed using a magnetically coupled loop antenna at a constant frequency of 726 MHz and input power levels of 10, 25, 40, and 50 Watts. The hydraulic conductivity of both natural sand and glass-bead samples increased with RF stimulation. Furthermore, measurement of the electric-field component of RF waves was also performed to illustrate the pattern of the electric field as well as evaluate the RF impact on the hydraulic conductivity tests. The electric field was numerically simulated and validated against experimentally measured electric fields. A finite-difference numerical model was developed in MATLAB to analyze the seepage flow, which was then validated against the experimental results. An optimization scheme was then used to develop a governing equation for the RF impact on hydraulic conductivity.

In this paper, we extend the Merton model of investment in discrete time to the cases when there is a finite number of investors and the market is with frictions represented by convex penalty functions defined for each investor. In the main result of this paper, we proved the existence of optimal strategy of investment by using a new approach based on the formulation of an equivalent general equilibrium economy model.

The study considers building a dynamic model of profit maximization for the car-sharing system and its verification on the example of implementing such a system in Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan). The region, bounded by the administrative boundaries of Astana, was divided into subregions by covering the region with regular hexagons placed side by side. A dataset was built with information on 1168 trips to Astana from January to March 2023. The Kepler visualization service constructed maps of the beginning and end of trips in the region and a map of trips binding to the hexagonal grid cells. Each cell of the grid corresponds to a specific sub-region, for which the quantitative parameters necessary for solving the profit maximization problem in the car-sharing system are calculated. Stations with cars will be placed in the cells of the grid, which will be available to car-sharing service customers. Based on the collected data, a dynamic (four periods per day) and static profit maximization model in the car-sharing system was built. Modeling was carried out based on the built models in the example of Astana. It was established that using a dynamic model of profit maximization in the car-sharing system increases the profit by 3.7%.

When the majority of museums and other cultural institutions were shut down due to the pandemic, mixed museum visits became a hot issue. After the epidemic, mixed visits, in the opinion of many experts, would become the new norm for experiencing cultural content. Diverse types of merging online and onsite visits are already being investigated by researchers, not only to avoid the spread of a disease but also to enable visits of people who were previously excluded, such as persons in remote geographic areas or people with mobility challenges. The current work takes into account the Contextual Model of Museum Learning to define potential use scenarios for visits from people of different cultural backgrounds and offers an evaluation of current practices.

High density of buildings and the large traffic volume of cities give rise to narrow spaces and high passenger flows in most subway stations. When evacuation is required during an emergency, these problems may trigger issues in operational safety. Therefore, it is imperative to comprehensively assess subway station emergency evacuation times and capacities during the operating process to ensure the design is safe, science-based, and rational. To further enhance safe evacuation capacity, this paper proposes an overall evacuation time model that considers the multielement charac-teristics of subway stations in multiple segments. The evacuation route is decomposed into five stages according to the critical nodes in the evacuation process. An overall emergency evacuation time model is established based on the diversity of bottlenecks in the five stages, integrating elements such as the horizontal movement velocity of passengers, subway equipment parameters, and human density. Taking Xi’an Wulukou Subway Station as an example, this paper verifies the outcomes of the theoretical model against the Pathfinder software and conducts additional anal-yses of the evacuation conditions of stairs and exits. The results show that the error between the theoretical emergency evacuation time and simulation evacuation time was 5.4%, The emergency evacuation model established in this study boasts strong robustness and stability.

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources is emerging as a result of global carbon emission reduction policies. However, most renewable energy sources are non-dispatchable and cannot be adjusted to meet the fluctuating electricity demands of society. A flexible operation process has been proposed as an effective solution to compensate for the unstable nature of renewable energy sources. Thermal load fluctuations during flexible operation may cause creep-fatigue damage to the high-temperature components of thermal power plants, as they are designed with a focus on creep damage under a constant power level. This study investigated the residual life of high-temperature components, such as a superheater tube and a reheater header, to failure under flexible operation conditions using finite element analysis and empirical models. First, we determine an analytical solution for the straightened superheater tube under thermal conditions and compare it with the numerical solution to verify the numerical models. Through the verified finite element model, the creep-fatigue life of the reheater header is estimated by considering flexible operation factors and employing the Coffin-Manson and Larson-Miller models. Although fatigue damage increases with decreasing minimum load and ramp rate, we confirmed that creep damage significantly affects the residual life during flexible operation. In addition, a surrogate model was proposed to evaluate the residual life of the reheater as a function of the flexible operation factors using the machine learning methodology, based on the results of finite element methods. It can be used to predict its residual life without performing complex thermal-structure analysis and relying on empirical models for fatigue and creep life. We expect our findings to contribute to the efficient operation of thermal power plants by optimizing the flexible operation factors.

The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.

Sea surface wind forecasts in the Adriatic Sea often suffer for unadequate modelling, especially for the wind speed. This has detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. We present a numerical method to reduce the bias between the sea surface wind observed by the scatterometers and that supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric model, for storm surge forecasting applications. The method, called “wind bias mitigation”, relies on scatterometer observations to determine a multiplicative factor ∆ws which modulates the standard model wind in order to decrease the bias between scatterometer and model. We compare four different mathematical approaches to this method, for a total of eight different formulations of the multiplicative factor ∆ws. Four datasets are used for the assessment of the eight different bias mitigation methods: a collection of 29 Storm Surge Events (SEVs) cases in the years 2004-2014, a collection of 48 SEVs in the years 2013-2016, a collection of 364 cases of random sea level conditions in the same period, and a collection of the seven SEVs in 2012-2016 that were worst predicted by the Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, Comune di Venezia (Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality - CPSM). The statistical analysis shows that the bias mitigation procedures supplies a mean wind speed more accurate than the standard forecast, when compared with scatterometer observations, in more than 70% of the analyzed cases.

The potential effect of implementing environmental regulations on economic growth is a controversial issue for a long time. As portrayed by Porter hypothesis, environmental regulations may impact on economic growth by reconstructing the economic structure. A number of previous literature proved the connections between the above three parties. With the intention of exploring the nature of this mechanism, it is important to understand the internal inter-relation of the three parties, requiring data from a large economy experiencing the transition in economic structure. By constructing a panel containing data from 30 Chinese provinces over 10 years (2008-2019), this paper investigate the dynamic inter-relation of the three parties by introducing PVAR model with Granger Test. Results reveal that environmental regulations give a “U” shaped impact to economic growth. In return, economic growth promotes the development of economy with a weakening strength. In addition, results also support the hypothesis that economic structure is the intermediate of economic growth and environmental regulations. There is a rooftop for the effect of economic structure to environmental regulations. The rooftop may signify the best optimization of primary structure.

During the past few years many projects and initiatives were undertaken deploying and testing automated vehicles for public transportation and logistics. However in spite of their ambition, all of these deployments stayed on the level of elaborated experimentation deploying no more than 4 maximum 5 AVs in rather small sites (few Kms of roads) and never really reached the level of large scale “commercial” deployment of transport services. The reasons for this are many, but the most important being the lack of economically viability and commercially realistic models, the lack of scalability of the business and operating models, and the lack of inclusive citizen/user centric services required for the large end-user acceptation and adoption of the solutions. In this paper, based on the experience gained in the H2020 AVENUE project, we present the missing pieces of the puzzle, ad which will be addressed in the Horizon Europe project ULTIMO.

The High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) detection and diagnosis of diffuse lung disease is primarily based on the recognition of a limited number of specific abnormal findings, pattern combinations or their distributions, as well as anamnesis and clinical information. Since texture recognition has a very high accuracy percentage if a complex network approach is used, this paper aims to implement such a technique customized for diffuse interstitial lung diseases (DILD). The proposed procedure translates HRCT lung imaging into complex networks by taking samples containing a secondary lobule, converting them into complex networks and analyzing them in 3 dimensions: emphysema, ground glass opacity and consolidation. This method was evaluated on a 60 patient lot and the results show a clear quantifiable difference between healthy and affected lungs. By deconstructing the image on three pathological axes, the method offers an objective way to quantify DILD details which, so far, have only been analyzed subjectively.

This article analyzes the perspectives of professional training of the public administration staff, from the viewpoint of the sustainability criteria, starting from the experiences of the online courses run in the last two years. In order to understand the nature, type and magnitude of the changes caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the field of professional training for public administration, we performed a survey among public institution employees, by applying a questionnaire. The instrument included qualitative elements, to allow the framing of statistical results. The article is grounded on the hypothesis that the professional training activities in the last two years were organized preponderantly online and it aims to analyze the sustainability of the new teaching systems/methods. The limitations of the study are given by the fact that each administrative system has structure particularities and its own legal framework regarding the professional training of public administration staff, what makes that the model proposed cannot be applied in all countries. The study provides a model of online professional training for public administration staff, sustainable, based on the experience accumulated in the last two years.

COVID-19 outbreak started in the Chinese city of Wuhan and spread around the globe in months due to its high contagious level. Hence, this disease posed a great challenge to researchers and mathematicians. Numerous mathematical models have been suggested to visualize the spreading speed and trends of this pandemic. In this paper, a comparison of a widely established and accepted method, the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Death-Insusceptible (SEIQRDP) model with a newly-proposed fractional-order SEIQRDP is studied. Densely populated Countries of Asia (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh) have been chosen as data sets and both algorithms have been applied to their data. The same comparison technique has also been used on the data of two polar countries, New Zealand and Russia, that validated our findings. Error comparison of both algorithms has been recorded in a tabulated form which shows multi-fold erroneous trends over WHO data of selected countries.

The potential of social networks for the circulation of disinformation as a strategy of diplomacy has been of great interest to the academic community, but the way in which it is propagated and modelled is still in its beginnings. This article aimed to simulate the propagation of disinformation in social networks derived from the diplomacy strategy, based on the elements of the system. For the design of the simulation model, system dynamics was used as the main technique in the research methodology in conjunction with statistical analysis. Five computational simulations were run for the adoption methods of susceptible and uninformed population, misinformation techniques and echo chamber. The developed model found that the diplomacy disinformation agent is able to spread its message efficiently through the bot outreach mechanism and only a part of the susceptible population unsubscribes to the disinformation agent's account. Significant differences were identified in the absence of paid outreach, bots and trolls in the propagation of information, and in the variation in the timing of disinformation propagation. Consequently, the developed model allows the understanding of the problem of disinformation as a strategy of diplomacy from international rather than local dynamics, as well as the effects of the use of each element in the system.

Natural disasters are showing an increase in the magnitude, frequency, and geographic distribution. Studies have shown that individuals’ self-sufficiency, which largely depends on household preparedness, is very important for hazard mitigation in at least the first 72 hours following a disaster. However, for factors that influence a household’s disaster preparedness, though there are many studies trying to identify from different aspects, we still lack an integrative analysis on how these factors contribute to a household’s preparation. This paper aims to build a classification model to predict whether a household has prepared for a potential disaster based on their personal characteristics and the environment they located. We collect data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Household Survey in 2018 and train four classification models - logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and multi-layer perceptron classifier models- to predict the impact of personal characteristics and the environment they located on household prepare for the potential natural disaster. Results show that the multi-layer perceptron classifier model outperforms others with the highest scoring on both recall (0.8531) and f1 measure (0.7386). In addition, feature selection results also show that among other factors, a household’s accessibility to disaster-related information is the most critical factor that impacts household disaster preparation. Though there is still room for further parameter optimization, the model gives a clue that we could support disaster management by gathering publicly accessible data.

The vibrational excitation cross section of a diatomic molecule by positron impact is obtained using wavepacket propagation techniques. The dynamics was carried on a two-dimensional potential energy surface which couples a hydrogen-like harmonic oscillator to a positron via a spherically symmetric correlation polarization potential. The cross section for the excitation of the first vibrational mode is in good agreement with previous reports. Our model suggests that a positron couples to the target vibration by responding instantly to an interaction potential which depends on the target vibrational coordinate.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

The most common and taught membrane theory assumes that the membrane behaves as a kind of electrical capacitance that is exposed to an electrical current generated by an ionic flow. If this statement is verifiable, it can be confirmed by the laws of physics, mathematics and in particular electricity. We will demonstrate that this hypothesis is not verified and that it is necessary to modify biophysics according to already established and experimentally verified principles of physics.

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

We study the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and inapt for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models with fewest possible hyperparameters. We analyse the regret bound of the proposed algorithms and examine their performance using experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets

Integral atmospheric dispersion models are used widely for flammable hazard and its risk analysis. There is a widespread belief that flammable distances from these models are conservative when flammable ranges are calculated using the 0.5 lower flammability limits (LFL) concentration threshold. This is erroneous. This paper traces through the development of these models and the research that led to the Birch Guidance. It shows that the 0.5 LFL is a necessary factor to transform the results of dispersion models designed for environmental assessment to applications to flammable hazard assessment in quiescent conditions. Current applications do not take account of turbulence due to wind, large and small obstructions, etc. A set of simple guidance is given in the paper to manage flammable hazards based on results from atmospheric dispersion models, including topics for future research.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the mean transitioning probabilities from a Healthy state to malaria positive uncomplicated state or to malaria positive severe state. It also classifies the various transitioning probabilities of moving through the various states based on some baseline characteristics. Malaria test results for 2019 over a 12-month period were collected from the University of Ghana school clinic. An H-U model for the study was developed and the transition rates from the cross-sectional data are indicated. With two states Healthy (H) and Uncomplicated (U) forming a state space, there were four possible transitions. The results show that the probability of transitioning from a Healthy state to a malaria positive state is 0.03% while the probability that an individual will remain at Healthy state (H) after the test is 99.73%. It was found that if an individual is already positive and has taken medication the probability that its second test came out negative is 6.45% while the chances that it will remain positive but uncomplicated is 93.55%. The study also showed that in the long run, about 95.98% of persons who visited the student clinic with malaria symptoms recorded negative tests for malaria parasite while about 4% recorded positive for malaria. In terms of disaggregation by gender, it was realized that the number of reported negative test results were higher for females (97.08%) than for males (96.13%). However, the infection rate is higher for males (3.87%) than females (2.92%). It is recommended that in as much as the University of Ghana has two health centers (a clinic and hospital), there should be a centralized system to track students’ health so research done would not be biased.

Bell's theorem can be refuted by presenting a counterexample which predicts correctly the expectation values of QM. As Bell has only ruled out noncontextual models a contextual model with hidden variables would refute his theorem. Such a model is presented able to explain the spin measurement results with entangled photons or electrons. It is not ruled out by the Kochen-Specker Theorem. Consequences for the feasibility of quantum computers are discussed.

Pathogens and adulterants in human feeding consumables can be readily identified according to their electrical properties. Electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) has been widely used for body contents characterization, such as blood, urine, lactate and sweat. If the blood glucose concentration alters the electrical properties of the blood medium, then the impedance spectrum obtained by BIA can be used to measure glycemia. In some applications, artificial neural networks allows the correlation of these parameters (impedance and glucose concentration) by means of symbolic and statistical rules. According to our literature review, there is any physical model that allows the interpretation of the relationship between blood’s electrical properties, obtained by BIA, and the concentration of glucose in the blood plasma. This article proposes a simplified physical model for blood electrical conductivity as a function of glucose concentration, based on Bruggeman’s effective medium theory. The equations of this model were obtained considering an insulating phase distribution diffused in a conductive matrix, in which red blood cells are represented by macroscopic insulating nuclei and glucose molecules by microscopic insulating particles. The impedance spectrum for different glucose concentrations (4.0 to 6.8 mmol/L) in a blood sample, published by Kamat Bagul (2014), were compared with the proposed model. The results showed a significant correlation with the experimental data, showing a maximum error of 5.2%. The proposed model might be useful in the design of noninvasive blood glucose monitoring systems.

Recently, the intensities of natural disasters have increased significantly owing to climate change and various other environmental factors, causing unprecedented damage. Measures must be established to reduce damage from large-scale natural disasters caused by the rapidly changing environment. The Japanese government published a hazard map manual in 2015 and obligates the creation of a hazard map as a measure to reduce high-scale storm surges. This manual presents a typhoon model based on a parametric model that is used to create a hazard map. The Myers model assuming concentric circles, which is primarily used in East Asia, is disadvantageous as it cannot consider geographic characteristics. Therefore, a new parametric model is necessary to calculate wind and pressure fields, which change according to geographic characteristics. To improve this limitation of the Myers model, we calculated the wind and pressure fields considering geographical effects by combining the Holland model, which can consider the size of a developing typhoon, and the Mascon model, which changes by geographic characteristics. To determine the gradient coefficient of the Holland model, the coefficient that changes every moment was calculated using grid point value data. The result indicated excellent reproducibility of storm surge height according to the geographic characteristics.

In this paper, drug treatment and vaccination are compared healthy and economically. In this comparison, in addition to comparing economic costs, it has paid attention to patients' recovery. To reach the goal, the prevalence of Covid-19 virus in New York is modeled by using the SEIR dynamic model. The SEIR dynamic model is used to model the period of epidemic diseases. Then, three disease control scenarios are evaluated economically. Treatment and vaccination are two important issues in controlling epidemic diseases. To control the disease, each of these two methods has economic costs and benefits. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the two methods of vaccination and treatment economically. Although the results of the study show that vaccination can be effective in preventing the epidemic of the disease than treatment, but due to the high cost and genetic mutation of the virus, vaccination is not the optimal method for both health and the economy in the long term.

We extend our high-resolution MRI-based Finite Element (FE) head model, previously presented and validated in [1–3], by considering the heterogeneities of the white matter structures captured through the use of Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE). This approach imparts more sophistication to our numerical model and yields results that more closely match experimental results. It is found that the peak pressure more closely matches the experiments as compared to the heterogeneous case. Qualitatively, we find differences in stress wave propagation near the corpus callosum and the corona radiata, which are stiffer on average than the global white matter. We are able to study the effects of these stiff structures on transient stress wave propagation within the cerebrum, something that cannot be done with a homogenized material model.

A mathematical model, composed of two non-linear differential equations that describe the population dynamics of CD4 T cells in the human immune system, as well as viral HIV particles, is proposed. The invariance region is determined, classical equilibria stability analysis is performed using the basic reproduction number, and numerical simulations are carried out, in order to illustrate stability results. Later, the model is modified with a delay term, which describes the time that cells require for immunological activation. This generates a two-dimensional integro-differential system, which is transformed into a system with three ordinary differential equations, via auxiliary variable use. For the new model, equilibrium points are determined, their local stability is examined, and results are studied by way of numerical simulation.

Rough volatility models are popularized by \cite{gatheral2018volatility}, where they have shown that the empirical volatility in the financial market is extremely consistent with rough volatility. Fractional Riccati equation as a part of computation for the characteristic function of rough Heston model is not known in explicit form as of now and therefore, we must rely on numerical methods to obtain a solution. In this paper, we give a short introduction to option pricing theory and an overview of the current advancements on the rough Heston model.

Based on K-ε Standard Wall turbulence model (2-Equation) and Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations defined for incompressible fluids, fluid flow behaviour around hyperloop pods in an evacuated tube was simulated using ANSYS fluent solver assuming steady state and two dimensional conditions. In this research, to develop the case studies, using combination of different head and tail shape profile, four kind of hyperloop pods were developed with the aid of SolidWorks. These four pods have been investigated for their aerodynamic behaviour as four different case scenarios. The results of simulation depicts that an atmospheric pressure of 100 Pa with blockage ratio of 0.36 in tube provides the best possible aerodynamic behaviour for the designed hyperloop pod models. This research finds that overall aerodynamic behaviour of hyperloop pods can be varied by changing the head and tail shape profile of pods and a particular combination of head and tail shape profile can provide optimally best aerodynamic capabilities. Thus, this research paper provides a novel method of obtaining best aerodynamic capabilities in hyperloop pods by designing head profile optimally in combination with tail profile. This outcome will provide major contribution towards the development of hyperloop pods in future with better aerodynamic behaviour resulting in lesser electrical energy required to propel the hyperloop pods in evacuated tube.

The effect of divergence of chute sidewalls with three different baffle block geometries namely USBR, trihedral and semicircular blocks, as well as the depth and dimensions of the scour hole downstream of the chute were studied using a physical model. For this purpose, 9 models of baffled chutes were designed and constructed with divergence ratios of 1.45, 1.75, and 2.45 and without divergence (with a divergence ratio of 1). Comparing the results on the effect of block geometry at different divergence ratios revealed that the use of blocks proposed in this study instead of standard USBR blocks reduced the mean and maximum scour hole by 50%. For a given block geometry, the mean depth, maximum depth, and length of scour hole were reduced by 75%, 58%, and 50%, respectively.

This article attempts to formulate a mathematical model for a potential explanation regarding the unavoidable impact of a rigid body's peculiar shape on the seamless flow over it. The solid body completely immersed in a Newtonian fluid and respectively has a relative open circuit flow on it will typically experience various observable phenomena like flow separation, flow transition, down-wash, stalling at the higher angle of attack, stalling velocity and how cambered airfoil can typically generate lift at a zero incidence angle. This article respectively represents an understanding of the laminar flow over a rigid body's external surface with due respect to its distinctive shape and size. This working paper formulates a more realistic and simplified mathematical model for open circuit laminar flow over a body, based on the historical data of aerodynamics and theoretical mechanics. This is intended to properly estimate forces on the continuous surface of the body in a laminar flow, to properly explain, understand and predict mentioned phenomena. Most of all the mechanism of streamline formation and its deformation with due regards to flow, shape and size of the body in an open-circuit laminar are formulated mathematically to enhance better design theory which can reduce experimentation while designing a streamlined body.

Timely processing of observations from hyper-spectral imagers, such as SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager), largely depends on fast radiative transfer calculations. This paper mostly concerns the development and implementation of a new forward model for SEVIRI to be applied to real time processing of infrared radiances for the physical retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity. The new radiative transfer model improves computational time by a factor of ≈ 7 compared to the previous versions and makes it possible to process SEVIRI data at nearly real time. The new forward model has been applied for the simultaneous retrieval of surface temperature and emissivity in three infrared channels (8.7, 10.8, 12 μm). The inverse scheme relies on a Kalman filter approach, which allows us to exploit a sequential processing of SEVIRI observations. Based on the new forward model, the paper also presents a validation retrieval performed with in situ observations acquired during a field experiment carried out in 2017 at Gobabeb (Namib desert) validation station. Furthermore, a comparison with IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) emissivity retrievals has been performed as well. It has been found that the retrieved emissivities are in good agreement with each other and with in situ observations, i.e. average differences are generally well below 0.01.

Objective: This paper aims to build an Effort Estimation Model for design, coding and testing Web Applications Based Fuzzy and Practical Models, which will help in optimizing the efforts in software development. Methods/Analysis: Soft computing approach is adopted and applied in the effort estimation and then compared with practical efforts in the development process with interpreting the historical data available for the existing functionalities. Findings: The effort estimation model presented in this paper focuses on the first level estimates published by Project Managers and the second level estimates presented by Project Leaders or Developers for any new requirement or enhancement for a web application built on 3-tier architecture using Microsoft technologies. The model considers the classification of each task as either Low or Medium or High complexity. These tasks pertain to the lowest level parts in bottom-up estimation. Efforts are estimated for designing, coding and unit testing of these tasks and the efforts are summed up to get the effort estimation for the higher level which is a feature to be implemented. Novelty/Improvement: The paper also discusses about the application of the effort estimation model by taking a new requirement as a case study. The first level estimates calculated using the effort estimation model has a variance of about 25% when compared with the actual effort. This variance is very much acceptable considering the fact that the first level estimates can be tolerable up to 35%. The proposed effort estimation tool would help the project managers to efficiently control the project, manage the resources effectively, and improve the software development process and also trade off analyses among schedule, performance, quality and functionality. Fuzzy logic is used to verify the claims made in efforts estimation. It is proposed a new relation between the number of data and efforts value membership for actual data. And converts it into crisp value in the range [0…1] which helps to classify the complexity of the task and subtask in the design, coding and testing phases.

Fusarium graminearum causes head blight in wheat and corn, and produces chemicals harmful for humans and other animals. It is important to understand how it grows in order to prevent outbreaks. There are 3 well-known growth models for microorganisms and they seem applicable to molds: linear, Gompertz and Baranyi. This study aimed to see which could better represent F. graminearum growth. Three replicates were grown in yeast extract agar (YEA) for 20 days. The Feret’s radius was measured in ImageJ software, and then related to the models. Linear model was the most closely correlated to the actual growth. Thus, considering that it was the most representative of the reality and it is easier to use, it seems to be the best logical choice for F. graminearum growth studies.

The coal mine underground reservoir is an appropriate solution between coal mining and groundwater resource protection and utilization. By calculating the storage capacity of a groundwater reservoir, the storage coefficient has been proved to be always an empirical value. Based on the mathematical derivation of the vertical fracture area ratio and the horizontal fracture area rate of the collapse zone and the fissure zone in the goaf area of the coal seam, the mathematical models of tem are derived, and the model for calculating the water storage coefficient is derived. The water storage coefficient derived from the theoretical model had more basis and more advanced than the traditional empirical value. By using this method, the practical calculation of No.1 underground reservoir of the DaLliuta Coalmine in Shenhua Shendong, has got a perfect matching with the actual groundwater storage capacity.

PEM fuel cell is a technology successfully used in the production of energy from hydrogen, allowing the use of hydrogen as an energy vector. It is scalable for stationary and mobile applications. However, the technology demands more research. An important research topic is fault diagnosis and condition monitoring to improve the life and the efficiency and to reduce the operation costs of PEMFC devices. Consequently, there is a need of physical models that let deep analysis. These models must be accurate enough to represent the PEMFC behavior and to allow the identification of different internal signals of a PEM fuel cell. This work presents a PEM fuel cell model that uses the output temperature in a closed loop, so it can represent the thermal and the electrical behavior. The model is used to represent a NEXA Ballard 1.2 kW; therefore it is necessary to fit the coefficients to represent the real behavior. Five optimization algorithms were tested to fit the model, three of them were taken from literature and two were proposed. Finally, the model with the parameters identified was validated with real.

The non-existence of a land ownership database in most of the developing countries moves the inhabitants to the occupation of public lands. Some of this situation are the origin to areas of informal housing, commerce and agriculture and in the end into new ​​informal settlements. Informal settlements become a serious problem in developing countries. The most common typology of informal settlements is that they are the population settled in public lands without any infrastructures and against the administrator's will. Thought this action the result in an uncontrolled land occupation process that promotes new informal areas without any proper built-up utilities, located in risk areas on the territory, barely ensuring the minimum requirements for a heaty living of the population and in various cases incentives to an informal economy. The process of build a cadastral map in informal settlement areas is a fundamental base to support the future transformation of illegal areas and to regulate the occupation of new subdivision planning and into the creation of new expansion areas. In this paper, it is presented a methodology developed to be applied to support a new register of land and to management. The transformation of informal settlement areas. The model to register the land tenure has been associated with allows the process application to multiple typology of informal settlements. The model to register land tenure has developed on a series of qualitative and quantitative data that determine the identification and classification of the buildings and its physical and functional description. The model was developed using Geographic Information System and with an initial survey of existing land titles of possession and public proposals to develop new expansion areas. A case study of the method is presented, where the land management model was implemented - Chã da Caldeiras in Ilha do Fogo an informal settlement in Cape Verde. The results are a great acceptance of the proposal by the population and local authorities and the starting of the implementation phase.

SLEUTH Model (slope, landuse, exclusion, urban extent, transportation and hillshade) is an important tool for landuse planning and land policy. To evaluate the performance of SLEUTH model, implementation of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is essential. The main limitation of SA in SLEUTH application is a lack of insight into model input self-modification parameters (SMPs) variation, namely, uncertainty involved in the model transfer metrics and model presumptions, which often misled the decision makers and model users. To address this issue, this study divided the forward process into two stages. Firstly, during the transfer process ①, the contribution scores of five SMPs were drawn, and parameters highly sensitive to model output were given. Apart from that, the recommended initial value for SMPs of 0.11, 0.2, 0.87, 1.13, 15, 1.01, 0.49 were found to be subordinated to such a heterogeneous urban area simulation. Secondly, during the transfer process ②, SMP caused imagery metrics indicated the disparity between parameters with Fixed Reference and with Successive Reference. Reversely, it derives reasonable threshold for the best fit values of five prediction coefficients’ initialization by comparing the real image with the predicted one. The framework of SLEUTH model transfer mechanism not only could distinguish highly sensitive SMPs with higher contribution scores, but also could give parametric analysis for simulation imagery based on metrics. The study was found to be a practical tool for quantization response of model input variables for modelling complex urban systems. So, this insight can help geographic information scientists decide how to find out the inner forward transfer mechanism of SLEUTH model for further make good use of it and improve the model.

Migrations are much more important than currently recognised, for explaining important patterns observed in the European archaeology record – according to this archaeology led model. At a high level, they explain the introduction of different farming, monument building, the spread of metalworking and patterns of trade and exchange. This paper presents an archaeogenetic model based on a strategic review of the Neolithic and Chalcolithic archaeology of Europe, alongside a review of recently published ancient DNA data. The model is archaeology led. It takes archaeology themes and proposes migratory events to explain them. Ancient DNA data and further archaeology evidence is then used to test these proposed migrations- to reject or refine them. The model introduces a new and more strategic way of looking at archaeological cultures - that updates early 20th century approaches to studying archaeology cultures, and integrates with the detailed ‘post processual’ studies of the late 20th Century. The model consists of seven maps – each showing multiple migration events – with key evidence to support each migration map. It proposes a new category of a ‘Black Sea’ related population that makes a major genetic contribution to the Middle Neolithic of Europe. The proposed migrations provide an explanation for the observed patterns of archaeology, for example: • multiple Neolithic migrations that introduced, farming and metalworking into Europe; • a major ‘Black Sea’ related ‘Middle Neolithic’ migration that carried advanced knowledge of astronomy that can be recognised in a variety of types of monument from the Neolithic through to Bronze Age Europe; and, • migrations of related cultures (‘supercultures’) that explain patterns of trade and exchange in Bronze Age western Europe. The model also provides ancient DNA and archaeology based support for the key aspects of Childe’s ‘dawn of civilisation’ in Europe and Egypt and Gimbutas’ ‘Old Europe’ and “three waves of migration from the Steppe”.

This paper proposes a novel model for a PV cell with parameters variance dependency on temperature and irradiance included. The model relies on commercial available data, calculates the cell parameters for standard conditions and then extrapolates them for the whole operating range. An up-to-date review of the PV modeling is also included with series and parallel parasitic resistance values and dependencies discussed. The parameters variance is analyzed and included in the proposed PV model, where the self-heating phenomenon is also considered. Each parameter variance is compared to the results from different authors. The model includes only standard components and can be run on any SPICE-based simulator. Unlike other approaches that consider the internal temperature as a parameter, our proposal relies on air temperature as an input and computes the actual internal temperature accordingly. Finally, the model is validated via experiments and comparisons to similar approaches are provided.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

In this work model of mirror elements equilibrium of the micromechanical components is developed, the behavior analysis of the mirror element of micromechanical mirrors in case changing of control voltages of electrostatic actuators is carried out, an expression for determining the maximum value of deflection voltage at which the snap-down effect will take the following form is obtained in case of the influence of the coefficient of the electrostatic rigidity of electrostatic actuators. The developed equilibrium model of mirror elements and the obtained results of modeling can be used at design of micromechanical mirrors with internal suspensions.

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a graphical tool to evaluate the suitability of a candidate parametric model to fit a data set. The practical motivation is to check the adequacy of the so called SAINT model proposed in Jarner and Kryger (2011). This model has been implemented in practice by an important European pension fund concerned with setting annuity reserves for all current or former employees of Denmark. So, one particular relevant question is whether this mortality model is actually fitting old-age. Our graphical test can be described as follows. First we transform the data by means of the parametric model which is being evaluated. Should the model be correct, the transformed data will be in accordance with an Exponential distribution with rate 1. Then we construct a family of local linear hazard estimates based on the data on the transformed scale. Finally we use the statistical tool SiZer to assess the goodness-of-fit of the Exponential distribution to the data on the transformed scale. If the model is correct the SiZer map should not reveal any significant feature in the family of kernel estimates. Our method allow us to establish a diagnostic regarding the validity of the SAINT model when describing mortality patterns in four different countries.

Fast Field-Cycling (FFC) Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) relaxometry is a powerful non-destructive magnetic resonance technique that enables, among other things, the investigation of slow molecular dynamics at low magnetic field intensities. FFC-NMR relaxometry measurements provide insight into molecular motion across various timescales within a single experiment. This study focuses on a \textit{model-free} approach, representing the NMRD profile $R_1$ as a linear combination of Lorentzian functions, thereby addressing the challenges of fitting data within an ill-conditioned linear least-squares framework. Tackling this problem, we present a comprehensive review and experimental validation of three regularization approaches to implement the model-free approach to analysing NMRD profiles. These include: (1) \nameUpe, utilizing locally adapted $L_2$ regularization; (2) \nameL, based on $L_1$ penalties; and (3) a hybrid approach combining locally adapted $L_2$ and global $L_1$ penalties. Each method's regularization parameters are determined automatically, according to the Balancing and Uniform Penalty principles. % Our contributions include the implementation and experimental validation of the \nameUpe{} and \nameUp{} algorithms, and the development of a "dispersion analysis" technique to assess the existence range of the estimated parameters. The objective of this work is to delineate the variance in fit quality and correlation time distribution yielded by each algorithm, thus broadening the set of software tools for the analysis of sample structures in FFC-NMR studies. The findings underline the efficacy and applicability of these algorithms in the analysis of NMRD profiles from samples representing different potential scenarios. 1

Individuals with low health literacy (HL) are known to have poorer health outcomes and to have higher mortality rates compared to individuals with higher HL: hence, the improvement of HL is a key outcome in modern healthcare systems. Healthcare providers are therefore asked to support patients’ literacy skills by encouraging the implementation of autonomy-supportive patient centered communication (PCC), which in turn requires the enhancement of patient engagement. Our main hypothesis is that the well-known relationship between autonomy-supportive PCC and HL is mediated by patient engagement which is known to play a role in HL promotion and that is related to PCC as well. The purpose of this study was to formulate a hypothetical structural equation model (SEM) linking PCC to patient engagement and HL. A cross-sectional survey design was employed involving 1007 Italian chronic patients. The hypothetical model was tested using SEM to verify the hypothesized mediation of patient engagement between PCC and HL. Results show that the theoretical model has a good fit indexes and that patient engagement fully mediates the relationship between PCC and HL. This finding suggests healthcare systems to implement a new paradigm where patients are supported to play an autonomous role in their own healthcare.

This paper presents a new semi-explicit algorithm for parameters estimation in a time-fractional generalization of dual-phase-lag heat conduction model with the Caputo fractional derivatives. It is shown that this model can be derived from a general linear constitutive relation for the heat transfer by conduction when the heat conduction relaxation kernel contains the Mittag-Leffler function. The model can be used to describe heat conduction phenomena in a material with power-law memory. The proposed algorithm of parameters estimation is based on the time integral characteristics method. The explicit representations of the thermal diffusivity and the fractional analogues of the thermal relaxation time and the thermal retardation are obtained via a Laplace transform of the temperature field and utilized in the algorithm. An implicit relation is derived for the order of fractional differentiation. In the algorithm, this relation is resolved numerically. An example illustrates the proposed technique.

We previously developed a highly sensitive and specific anti-PDPN mAb, LpMab-23 (mouse IgG1, kappa). In this study, we produced a humanized IgG1 version (humLpMab-23) and its defucosylated form (humLpMab-23-f) of an anti‑PDPN mAb to potentiate the ADCC activity. The humLpMab-23 could recognize PDPN‑overexpressed Chinese hamster ovary (CHO)-K1 (CHO/PDPN) and PDPN-positive PC-10 and LN319 cells by flow cytometry. Furthermore, we found that humLpMab-23-f exerted ADCC and complement-dependent cytotoxicity against CHO/PDPN, PC-10 and LN319 cells in vitro and exhibited potent antitumor activities in the xenograft models. These results indicated that humLpMab-23-f could be useful for an antibody treatment regimen for PDPN-positive human cancers.

Circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in the peripheral blood are the precursors to distant metastasis but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. This study aims at understanding the molecular features within CTCs in relation to their metastatic potential. Using in vitro CTC models, in which breast cancer cell lines are cultured in non-adherent conditions simulating the microenvironment in the blood stream, we found that suspension culture resulted in resistance to TNF-related apoptosis inducing ligand (TRAIL)-mediated cell death. Such a resistance was directly correlated with a reduction in surface and total levels of DR5 protein. In the non-adherent state, cells underwent rapid autophagic flux characterized by an accumulation of autophagosome organelles. Notably, DR5 was translocated to autophagosomes and underwent lysosomal degradation. Our data suggest that CTCs may evade TNF cytokine mediated immune surveillance through downregulation of DR expression. The data warrants further studies in cancer patients to find the status of DRs and other molecular features within primary CTCs in relation to disease progression or chemoresistance.

To enable purposeful design and implementation of automated concrete technologies, precise assessment and prediction of the complex material flow at various stages of the process chain are necessary. This paper investigates the intermediate stage of the extrusion and deposition processes in extrusion-based 3D-concrete-printing, using a numerical model based on the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM). In PFEM, due to the Lagrangian description of motion, remeshing algorithms and the alpha shape method are used to track the free surface during large deformation scenarios. The Bingham constitutive model was used for describing the rheological behaviour of fresh concrete. This model is validated by comparing the numerically predicted layer geometries with those obtained from laboratory 3D printing experiments. Extensive parametric studies were then conducted using the numerical simulation, delineating the influence of process and material parameters on the layer geometries, the dynamic surface forces generated under the extrusion nozzle and the inter-layer interactions.

Full-scale/model test comparison studies to validate the traditional ABL wind tunnel simulation technique are reviewed. According to the literature review, notable discrepancies between full-scale measurement results and model test results were observed by most performed comparison studies, but the causes of the observed discrepancies were not revealed in a scientific way by those studies. In this regard, a new research scheme for future full-scale/model test comparison studies is proposed in this article, which utilizes the multiple-fan actively controlled wind tunnel simulation technique. With the new research scheme, future full-scale/model test comparison studies are expected to reasonably disclose the main problems with the traditional ABL wind tunnel simulation technique, and the technique can be improved correspondingly.

The recent demand for reducing pollutant and CO2 emissions from internal combustion engines has created an urgent need for the development of ultra-lean burn engines that ensure combus-tion stability and reducing knocking tendency. One of the most promising methods is the Pre-chamber Spark Ignition (PCSI) system, where a jet of high-energy reactive gases, produced by pilot combustion in a pre-chamber, ignites the main combustion event in the cylinder. Given the intricate phenomena inherent to PCSI systems, conducting 3D CFD studies is imperative for a comprehensive analysis and optimal design. Furthermore, the detailed CFD model, combined with the calibrated 0-D/1-D model, is anticipated to yield a significant amount of new data that would be difficult to obtain through experimental approaches, making it essential for advancing our understanding and optimization of these systems. However, recently published papers re-port that some state-of-the-art models developed for conventional SI operation may not be pre-dictive under the challenging conditions of TJI systems, particularly under lean conditions. This review elucidates the reasons behind the widespread adoption of CFD in the optimal design of PCSI engines. It presents significant examples and delves into the potential and challenges of employing CFD not just as a predictive tool but also as a design instrument for enhancing PCSI engine performance.

Into the frame of the French TANDEM project (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and the English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through numerical Modelling) Principia has been working on the development and qualification of two in-house CFD software’s: the 2D EOLE-SV (Saint Venant) model for simulation of large scale tsunami propagation from the source up to coastal scale and the 3D EOLE-NS (Navier-Stokes) model dedicated to tsunami coastal impact modelling. This paper presents a large range of test cases carried out into the frame of the project and dedicated to the validation of numerical codes in various tsunami wave conditions. The main aspects of phenomena such as wave generation, propagation and coastal impact are investigated on academic situations. A real case simulation is concerned as well, the devastating 2011 Tohoku event which is compared with in-situ data.

This paper explores the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting trends in the fixed bond market, where traditional analytical methods have proven inadequate. Focusing on various ML techniques such as supervised and unsupervised learning, neural networks, and deep learning, the study evaluates their effectiveness in forecasting market movements. It details a series of experiments in which different ML models are rigorously trained and tested against historical bond market data. The findings reveal that models employing time series analysis and advanced deep learning show marked potential in accurately predicting bond market trends. Additionally, the paper delves into the challenges and limitations inherent in these ML approaches, including data requirements and the risk of model overfitting. Finally, it proposes directions for future research, emphasizing the integration of ML into broader financial market analysis.

Immunotherapy has gained great momentum with chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T) therapy, in which patient’s T lymphocytes are genetically manipulated to recognize tumor-specific antigens increasing tumor elimination efficiency. In the last years, CAR-T cell immunotherapy for hematological malignancies achieved a great response rate on patients and is a very promising therapy for several other malignancies. Each new CAR design requires a preclinical proof-of-concept experiment using immunodeficient mouse models. The absence of a functional immune system in these mice makes them simple and suitable to be mathematically modeled. In this work, we developed a three population mathematical model to describe tumor response to CAR-T cell immunotherapy in immunodeficient mouse models, encompassing interactions between a non-solid tumor and CAR-T cells (effector and long-term memory). We account for several phenomena, such as tumor-induced immunosuppression, memory pool formation, and conversion of memory into effector CAR-T cells in the presence of new tumor cells. Individual donor and tumor specificities were considered as uncertainties in the model parameters. Our model is able to reproduce several CAR-T cell immunotherapy scenarios, with different CAR receptors and tumor targets reported in the literature. We found that therapy effectiveness mostly depends on some specific parameters such as the differentiation of effector to memory CAR-T cells, CAR-T cytotoxic capacity, tumor growth rate, and tumor-induced immunosuppression. In summary, our model can contribute to reduce and optimize the number of in vivo experiments with in silico tests to select specific scenarios that could be tested in experimental research. Such in silico laboratory was made available in a Shiny R-based platform called CARTmath. It is an open-source, easy to run simulator, available at github.com/tmglncc/CARTmath or directly on the webpage cartmath.lncc.br, containing this manuscript results as examples and documentation. The developed model, together with the CARTmath platform, provides potential use for assessing different CAR-T cell immunotherapy protocols and associated efficacy, becoming an accessory towards in silico trials.

Immersion in salt-lake solution was adopted to periodically test the concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient. The regression analysis was also completed. Also investigated was the time-dependent law of concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient with time. The influence of chloride-ion concentration in solution, water-to-cement ratio, and corrosion time on the largeness and accumulation rate of the concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient was also analyzed. Test results show that the concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient gradually decreased with increasing time and increased with increasing chloride-ion concentration in a salt lake . Taking into account the influence of factors such as water–binder ratio, chloride-ion concentration, and time-varying characteristics, a multi-factor calculation model for the concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient was established. Combining the prediction results and the measured data reported in this paper, the effectiveness and applicability of the established concrete chloride-ion diffusion coefficient calculation model were compared and verified, and the durability design and service life of a concrete structure under cool chlorine were compared. The results of analysis provide important boundary conditions.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an established rescue therapy for patients with chronic respiratory failure waiting for lung transplantation (LTx). The therapy inherent immobilization may result in fatigue, consecutive deteriorated prognosis and even lost eligibility for transplantation. We conducted a feasibility study on a novel system designed for the deployment of a mobile ECMO device, enabling physical exercise of awake patients prior to LTx. The system comprises a novel mobile oxygenator with a directly connected blood pump, a double lumen cannula, gas blender and supply, as well as control, and energy management. In-vitro experiments included tests regarding performance, efficiency, and blood damage. A reduced system was tested in vivo for feasibility using a novel large animal model. Six anesthetized pigs were first positioned in supine position, followed by a 45° angle, simulating an upright position of the patients. We monitored performance and vital parameters. All in-vitro experiments showed good performance for the respective subsystems and the integrated system. The acute invivo trials of 8h duration confirmed the results. The novel mobile ECMO-system enables adequate oxygenation and decarboxylation sufficient for, e.g., physical exercise of designated LTx-recipients. These results are promising and suggest further preclinical studies on safety and efficacy to facilitate translation into clinical application.