Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is the most common endocrine malignancy which diagnosis and recurrences still challenge clinicians. New perspectives to overcome those issues could come from the study of extracellular vesicles (EVs) populations and content. Here, we aimed to elucidate the heterogeneity of EVs circulating in tumor and the changes in their microRNA content during cancer progression. Using a mouse model expressing BRAF^V600E, we isolated and characterized EVs from thyroid tissue by ultracentrifugations and elucidated their microRNA content by small RNA sequencing. Cellular origin of EVs was investigated by ExoView and that of deregulated EV-microRNA by qPCR on FACS-sorted cell populations. We found that PTC released more EVs bearing epithelial and immune markers, as compared to healthy thyroid, and that changes in EV-microRNAs abundance were mainly due to their deregulated expression in thyrocytes. Pathway analysis showed that the more abundant EV-microRNAs could impact on immune processes. Altogether, our work provides a full description of in vivo-derived EVs produced by, and within, normal and cancerous thyroid. We elucidated the global EV-microRNAs signature, the dynamic loading of microRNAs in EVs upon BRAF^V600E induction, and their cellular origin. Thyroid tumor-derived EV-microRNAs could support the establishment of a permissive immune microenvironment.

The purpose of this article is to present a multi-criteria model designed to evaluate the potential of Sincelejo's cultural identity for tourism development. A descriptive quantitative methodology was used, which included a survey of 211 participants. A decision support method was applied, using the Weighted Additive Sum approach, following the multi-attribute method. Based on the information gathered, the elements of cultural identity shared by most of the criteria were identi-fied, highlighting the gastronomic, social, and cultural traditions and customs of the region, the results of which made it possible to design a composite indicator to evaluate the tourism potential of cultural identity in the area.

In the present study, we implemented species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the potential invasive distribution range of a cichlid fish, Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, in a very sensitive inland water system in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula where it is now established and spreading. By using the “Biomod2” package, and the latest CMIP6 climate data, four single species distribution models and EM were built, and the results were evaluated by operating characteristic (ROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). Based on the relative importance of climate factor analysis the mean diurnal range and precipitation seasonality were useful predictors of habitat suitability for O. niloticus. The response curve analysis indicated that the presence probability of O. niloticus decreased with increasing mean diurnal range and decreasing precipitation seasonality. The suitable distribution ranges for O. niloticus in the studied area were mainly distributed in the northeast of this region. The ensemble model results specified a significant impact of climate change on O. niloticus distribution, so highly suitable areas for this species will be reduced, while areas with low to moderate suitability increase slightly or remain unchanged. Based on the available data, Nile tilapia fulfills all four criteria to be considered as an invasive species: colonization in a new area, direct or indirect impacts of anthropological activity on its distribution range, geographical discontinuity between its native area (Africa) and the Arabian Peninsula (remote dispersal), and finally, its successful breeding in situ without human assistance resulting establishment of this biopollutant. Species distribution modeling provides insights into the factors that can reduce the risks and negative impacts of this biological pollutant on aquatic ecosystems of the southeastern Arabian Peninsula which harbors about 22 recognized fish species in 16 genera, 10 families, seven orders, and a class including 20 natives (seven endemic) species.

This article introduces a new method for modelling and verifying the execution of timed security protocols (TSP) and their time-dependent security properties. The method, which is both novel and reliable, uses an extension of interpreted systems, accessible semantics in multi-agent systems, and timed interpreted systems (TIS) with dense time semantics to model TSP executions. We enhance the models of TSPs by incorporating delays and varying lifetimes to capture real-life aspects of protocol executions. To illustrate the method, we model a timed version of the Needham-Schroeder Public Key Authentication Protocol. We have also developed a new SMT-based bounded model checking reachability algorithm for the proposed structures and implemented it with the tool. The method comprises a new procedure for modelling TSP executions, a translation of TSP into TIS, and a translation of TIS's reachability problem into the SMT problem. The paper also includes thorough experimental results for nine protocols modelled by TIS and discusses the findings in detail.

The building sector of most tropical countries still use predominantly primary biomass as the principal fuel. This has adverse effects like CO2 emission and deforestation and is associated with issues like poverty, ill-health, and low standard of living. Therefore, energy policies try to improve on the efficiency of firewood and charcoal end-use technologies, to palliate the negative effects. In this research, the global change assessment model (GCAM) is used, to investigate the impact of efficiency improvement on the energy consumption pattern of the building sector of developing countries. The aim of the study is to provide empirical data that would better inform policymakers on the effects of modernizing these primary fuels. The study developed three scenarios with different levels of efficiency improvements. The results show that efficiency improvement rather increases primary biomass consumption and CO2 emission. However, there is a fall in the consumption of traditional biomass in the second half of the modelling period. The increase in biomass-based fuels consumption was seen to be linked to their affordability. Therefore, policymakers need not only elaborate policies that improve biomass efficiency, but also introduce and motivate other clean cooking fuels like butane, biogas, and electricity.

There are different ways to analyse energy absorbance (EA) in the human auditory system. In previous research, we developed a complete finite element model (FEM) of the human auditory system. In this mentioned work, the external auditory canal (EAC), middle ear, and inner ear (spiral cochlea, vestibule, and semi-circular canals) were modelled based on human temporal bone histological sections. Multiple acoustic, structure and fluid-coupled analyses were conducted using the FEM to perform harmonic analyses in the 0.1–10 kHz range. Once the FEM had been validated with published experimental data, the FEM numerical results were used to calculate the EA or energy reflected (ER) by the tympanic membrane. This EA was also measured in clinical audiology tests which were used as a diagnostic parameter. A mathematical approach was developed to calculate the EA and ER, with numerical and experimental results showing adequate correlation up to 1 kHz. Another published FEM had adapted its boundary conditions to replicate experimental results. Here, we recalculated those numerical results by applying the natural boundary conditions of human hearing and found that the results almost totally agreed with our FEM. This boundary problem is frequent and problematic in experimental hearing test protocols: the more invasive they are, the more the results are affected. One of the main objectives of using FEMs is to explore how the experimental test conditions influence the results. Further work will still be required to uncover the relationship between the middle ear structure and EA to clarify how to best use FEMs. Moreover, the FEM boundary conditions must be more representative in future work to ensure their adequate interpretation.

Staphylococcus aureus(S. aureus) is associated with mastitis in dairy cows, this study investigates the therapeutic effect of maggot antimicrobial peptides on S. aureus induced mastitis in mice. The maggot AMP was isolated and purified, tested for antimicrobial activity, and used to treat a pathological model of rat mastitis. The concentration of 1.5mg/（Kg. BW）AMP was selected as intramammary treatment in S. aureus-induced mastitis in mice. The mice were divided into four groups of 30 mice each: group I (healthy control), group II (disease control), group III (AMP), and group IV (ciprofloxacin). To evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of maggot AMP in mastitis induced by S. aureus based on clinical presentation, mammary gland structure, bacterial load, histopathology, and cure. During the 7-day treatment period, all the mice in Group II died in the afternoon of the fifth day, and the clinical signs of the mice in Group III began to improve on the third day, as evidenced by the gradual recovery of the mice's mental status, dietary intake, and water intake. During the treatment period, the bacterial load count of Group III was significantly lower than that of Group II but higher than that of Group IV, while the bacterial load count of Group III gradually decreased and approached that of Group IV from the fifth to the seventh day. The levels of TNF-α in groups III and IV were significantly lower than those in group II, suggesting that maggot AMP has a certain inhibitory effect on TNF-α. Treatment with AMP@ 1.5 mg/(Kg. BW) showed restoration of clinical signs, reduced bacterial load, and lower TNF-α levels in mice, leading to significant improvement in histopathological changes as compared to disease controls. The final cure rate was 40% for mice in Group III compared to 70% for mice in Group IV, compared to all mice in Group II that died. From this study, it can be concluded that maggot AMP can be used as a potential alternative treatment option to antibiotics for the treatment of bovine mastitis.

The production of high-quality wines is one of the primary goals of modern oenology. In this regard, it is known that the potential quality of a wine begins to be determined in the vineyard, where the quality of the grape, initially, and later that of the wine, will be influenced by the soil properties. Given the spatial variability of the fundamental soil properties related to the potential grape production, such as texture, soil organic matter content, or cation exchange capacity, it seems that a uniform management of a vineyard is not the most optimal way to achieve higher grape quality. In this sense, the delineation of zones with similar soil characteristics to implement site-specific management is essential, reinforcing the interest to incorporate technologies and methods to determine these homogeneous zones. A case study was conducted in a 3.3 ha vineyard located near Évora, South of Portugal. A non-contact sensor (DUALEM 1S) was used to measure soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) in the vineyard, and later, a kriged ECa map was generated. ECa and elevation maps were utilised to delineate homogeneous zones (management zones, MZs) in the field through a clustering process. MZs were validated using some soil properties (texture, pH, organic matter -OM, phosphorous -P2O5, potassium -K2O, sum of the exchange bases -SEB; and cation exchange capacity -CEC) which were determined from 20 soil samples taken in the different MZs. Additionally, validation was also performed using Rasch measures, which were defined based on the formula-tion of the objective and probabilistic Rasch model, integrating the information from the afore-mentioned soil properties at each sampling location. The comparison of the MZs was more evident with the use of the Rasch model, as only one value was to be employed in each MZ. The use of ECa constitutes an efficient technological tool for implementing site-specific man-agement in viticulture, which allows for the improvement of decision-making processes by con-sidering the inherent spatial variability of the soil.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

The detrimental consequences of soil pollution caused by crude oil or petroleum products are immense, leading to land degradation, property damage, and rendering agricultural practices ineffective. Extensive research has been conducted in the field of soil remediation, but further studies are still required to explore additional details of the remedial process. As a result, this study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Vernonia Galamensis and Vernonia Amygdalina, commonly known as bitter leaf, in remediating hydrocarbon-contaminated soil. In the analysis of micro-organisms, it was found that the bitter leaf extracts contained three types of bacteria: Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli. The leaf extracts were prepared using different methods, including sun drying, room drying, and using them in their wet form, which were then blended into the contaminated soil. The study also took into consideration three different types of soil: sandy-loamy soil, clay soil, and swamp soil. These advanced techniques and considerations are relevant to the topic of revolutionizing soil remediation, as they explore the potential of bitter leaf extracts and different soil types in effectively mitigating the effects of hydrocarbon contamination.The findings revealed that the wet blended extracts of Vernonia performed exceptionally well in the remediation process, surpassing a 50% reduction in the initial contamination levels. The study involved utilizing a quantity of bitter leaf ranging from 10g to 40g, which was added to the contaminated soils and monitored for a duration of 40 days. Remarkably, this approach led to a significant decrease in the concentration of contaminants within the soil, indicating the effectiveness of the bitter leaf extracts in the remediation process. Towards the conclusion of the study, predictive models were constructed to forecast the impact of hydrocarbon content, as well as the levels of lead, zinc, and chromium in the soil. These variables served as the dependent variables in the models, while the mass of bitter leaf, the duration of treatment, and the pH of the soil were considered as independent variables. Significantly, the models achieved a level of significance of less than 0.05, indicating their statistical validity. Furthermore, the r2 value, which represents the goodness of fit, demonstrated an appreciable level of accuracy in predicting the remediation effects. These results highlight the potential of the developed models in assessing and predicting the remedial outcomes of hydrocarbon contamination using bitter leaf extract.

The SK model proposed by Sherrington and Kirkpatrick is an important mean field model for spin glasses. The dependence structure of Hamiltonians of the SK model is considered in this paper. We have investigated the covariance matrix of Hamiltonians of the SK model, and establish a relationship between the rank of the corresponding covariance matrix and the dimension of the space spanned by the Hamiltonians. Finally, we also give an upper bound for the rank of the covariance matrix, which might be the best.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

This article examines how digitalisation is impacting the management of IT. Phase 1 of the re-search focuses on the German automotive industry, and adopts a qualitative inductive approach, based on feedback from 19 semi-structured interviews with IT managers and professionals. Five key aspects of digitalisation are identified, and a new model for the management of IT is devel-oped. Phase 2 then reviews the deployment of digital technologies in eight organisations from other industry sectors and assesses the overall impact on the management of IT. The results suggest that the transition to new IT management structures in the German automotive industry may be the forerunner of a change process that will impact more widely in other industries, in particular where digital technologies are now embedded in an organisation’s products or services. The results also provide some new perspectives on the conceptualisation of digitalisation and digital transformation, and represent a contribution to the developing theory around new tech-nology deployment and IT management in the digital era.

The dynamics of the main photosynthetic structures is studied by mathematical modeling methods in this article. Chlorophyll portion variability in phytoplankton and the formation of energy-intensive substances in the process of photosynthesis underlie the models. These cellular components are considered in terms of their participation in the growth of specific biomass. Computational experiments are presented that simulate various degrees of environmental friendliness. The corresponding functions are built in accordance with seasonal fluctuations throughout the year in the Far East region of Russia. The stability of model solutions in long-term dynamics is also investigated. The models were tested for biological adequacy and their effectiveness was compared. For the model selected as a result of the comparison, the optimal control problem has been formulated and solved. It is shown that in this way it is possible to reduce the space of the initial components of the model system.

In this paper, we revisit the q-states clock model for small systems. We present results for the thermodynamics of the q-states clock model from $q=2$ to $q=20$ for small square lattices $L \times L$, with L ranging from $L=3$ to $L=64$ with free-boundary conditions. Energy, specific heat, entropy and magnetization are measured. We found that the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT)-like transition appears for $q>5$ regardless of lattice size, while the transition at $q=5$ is lost for $L<10$; for $q\leq 4$ the BKT transition is never present. We report the phase diagram in terms of $q$ showing the transition from the ferromagnetic (FM) to the paramagnetic (PM) phases at a critical temperature T$_1$ for small systems which turns into a transition from the FM to the BKT phase for larger systems, while a second phase transition between the BKT and the PM phases occurs at T$_2$. We also show that the magnetic phases are well characterized by the two dimensional (2D) distribution of the magnetization values. We make use of this opportunity to do an information theory analysis of the time series obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we calculate the phenomenological mutability and diversity functions. Diversity characterizes the phase transitions, but the phases are less detectable as $q$ increases. Free boundary conditions are used to better mimic the reality of small systems (far from any thermodynamic limit). The role of size is discussed.

The performance of the presurgical test (preSurg) for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) was evaluated via video-electroencephalography (VEEG), electroencephalography (EEG), 99mTc-HmPAO single-photon emission tomography (SPECT) and 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a group of 112 men (37.0 ± 1.1 years) and 106 women (39.7 ± 1.1 years) operated on for TLE. The epileptic zone (EZ) was adequately identified to determine whether the patient reached an Engel I grade (EI) at least one year postop. Accuracy was evaluated by the coefficient α, ranging from 3 (when result = EZ) to 2 (result in the same hemisphere as the EZ), 1 (noninformative result) or 0 (EZ in the contralateral hemisphere). The simplicity of diagnosis was defined as the number of preSurg surgeries needed to identify the EZ. EI was obtained in 85.8% of patients even though 42.2% of patients had noninformative MRI results. For preSurg α was (mean ± SEM) = VEEG (2.83 ± 0.04) &gt; MRI (2.14 ± 0.08) &gt; EEG (1.87 ± 0.09) &gt; SPECT (1.71 ± 0.09). The accuracy (combination of sensitivity and specificity) was calculated as follows: VEEG (0.797) &gt; MRI (0.518) &gt; EEG (0.446) &gt; SPECT (0.360). The likelihood positive ratio was greater, and the likelihood negative ratio was lower for VEEG. The most relevant factor for the regression model was VEEG (3.106) &gt; MRI (2.558) &gt; EEG (1.905), and the factors were not significantly related to SPECT. EZs in EI patients with low simplicity were identified mainly by VEEG. A very good postoperative outcome can be obtained even in TLE patients with no lesions on MRI. The VEEG is the most reliable preSurg test and may be the only reliable test for patients with very low simplicity (i.e., difficult).single paragraph of about 200 words maximum. For research articles, abstracts should give a pertinent overview of the work. We strongly encourage authors to use the following style of structured abstracts, but without headings: (1) Background: Place the question addressed in a broad context and highlight the purpose of the study; (2) Methods: briefly describe the main methods or treatments applied; (3) Results: summarize the article’s main findings; (4) Conclusions: indicate the main conclusions or interpretations. The abstract should be an objective representation of the article and it must not contain results that are not presented and substantiated in the main text and should not exaggerate the main conclusions.

In Tropical Monsoon climates, precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration, leading to increased surface runoff, especially in floodplain regions. The Bhagirathi-Hooghly River in India is the focus of the study, which analyses hydrology, sediment yield, and water balance in this floodplain area. This investigation employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model within the ArcGIS environment, using remote sensing data. The study area is divided into 4 sub-basins and 40 Hydrological Response Units (HRUs), with a focus on Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) parameters, soil attributes, and slope characteristics. Calibration (1998-2010) and validation (2011-2018) of river discharge and sediment yield are performed using the SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP. The calibration process shows a strong correlation between observed and simulated data points, indicating the model's accuracy. The study reveals a pattern of early-year evapotranspiration followed by increasing rainfall during the monsoon season, leading to heightened surface runoff and sediment yield. Excessive rainfall, therefore, emerges as a pivotal driver of flood incidences within the floodplain. The insights derived from the SWAT model's floodplain data have the potential to inform flood control and sedimentation mitigation strategies. The assimilation of this data can empower local stakeholders and contribute to sustainable livelihoods and improved living conditions, offering guidance for future governmental policies.

This paper analyses the evolution of the internal damage in two types of steel that show different fracture behaviours, with one of them being the initial material used for manufacturing prestressing steel wires, which shows a flat fracture surface perpendicular to the loading direction, and the other one being a standard steel used in reinforced concrete structures, which shows the typical cup-cone surface. 3mm-diameter cylindrical specimens are tested with a tensile test carried out in several loading stages and, after each of them, unloaded and analysed with X-ray tomography, which allows detection of internal damage throughout the tensile test. In the steel used for reinforcement, damage is developed progressively in the whole specimen, as predicted by Gurson-type models, while in the steel used for manufacturing prestressing steel-wire damage is developed only in the very last part of the test. In addition to the experimental study, a numerical analysis is carried out by means of the finite element method by using a Gurson model to reproduce the material behaviour.

Abstract: Background and objective: Propofol is an anesthetic agent that is frequently used in anesthesia induction, maintenance and sedation. Propofol has severe side effects such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression. Although propofol is commonly used, there is no known antidote for its toxic effects. An approach to prevent toxic effects of propofol would be beneficial. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of intravenous lipid emulsion (ILE) therapy in the prevention of depressive effects of propofol on cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Materials and methods: Twenty-eight Sprague-Dawley adult rats were randomly divided into 4 groups. The saline-administered group was determined as the Control group. The second group was administered propofol (PP group); the third group was administered ILE (ILE group), and the fourth was administered propofol with ILE therapy (ILE+PP group). Systolic blood pressure (SBP), Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), Mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), Respiratory rate (RR), Heart rate (HR) and mortality were recorded at 10 points during 60 minutes. A repeated measures linear mixed-effect model with unstructured covariance was used to compare the groups. Results: In the PP group, SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels were declining steadily; all rats in this group died after 60 minutes. In the ILE+PP group, after a while, the decreased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels increased SBP, DBP, MAP, RR and HR levels of the Propofol group were found to be significantly lower than those of the other groups (p<0.01). The mortality rate was 100% (surviving period, 60 min) for the PP group, whereas 0% for the ILE, ILE+PP and Control groups. Conclusion: Our results suggest that undesirable side effects that can be seen after propofol application such as hypotension, bradycardia and respiratory depression might be prevented by using ILE therapy.

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection causes the most severe form of viral hepatitis but little is known about the molecular mechanisms involved. The recently developed HDV mouse model based on the delivery of HDV replication-competent genomes using adeno-associated vectors (AAV) develop a liver pathology very similar to the human disease, and allowed us to perform mechanistic studies. We have generated different AAV-HDV mutants to eliminate the expression HDV antigens (HDAgs), characterized them both in vitro and in vivo. We confirmed that S-HDAg is essential for HDV replication and cannot be replaced by L-HDAg or host cellular proteins, and the L-HDAg is essential for HDV infectious particle production. We have also found that the lack of L-HDAg resulted in the increase of of S-HDAg expression levels and the exacerbation of liver damage which is T cell independent but is associated with an increment in liver inflammation. Interestingly, early expression of L-HDAg significantly ameliorated the liver damage induced by the mutant expressing only the S-HDAg. In summary, the use of AAV-HDV represents a very attractive platform to interrogate in vivo the role of viral components in the HDV life cycle and to better understand the mechanism of HDV-induced liver pathology.

Visual object tracking is an important technology in camera based sensor networks, which has a wide range of practicability in auto drive system. A transformer is a deep learning model that adopts the mechanism of self-attention, and it differentially weights the significance of each part of the input data. It has been widely applied in the field of visual tracking. Unfortunately, the security of the transformer model is unclear. It makes such transformer-based applications be exposed to security threats. In this work, the security of the transformer model is investigated with the important component of autonomous driving, visual tracking. Such deep-learning-based visual tracking is vulnerable to adversarial attacks, so adversarial attacks are implemented as the security threats to conduct the investigation. First, adversarial examples are generated on top of video sequences to degrade tracking performance, and the frame-by-frame temporal motion is taken into consideration when generating perturbations over the predicted tracking results. Then, the influence of perturbations on performance is sequentially investigated and analyzed. Finally, numerous experiments on OTB100, VOT2018, and GOT-10k data sets demonstrate that the executed adversarial examples are effective on the performance drops of the transformer-based visual tracking.

For the first time in human history the majority of people no longer live in a rural environment. According to the United Nations, over 50% of the global population now lives in cities. The abandonment of the rural environment has grave consequences for society in general, as these areas are healthier places to live, produce the food we all depend on, and are an important factor for preserving biodiversity and environmental sustainability. In this paper we will provide a historical overview of rural repopulation models and analyse a number of models currently being applied in several countries in Europe and Latin America. We will also offer observations on a pilot repopulation project called “Habita Tierra” currently being developed. The common characteristics of different repopulation models prompted us to develop a model based on active listening and accompaniment of people and local agents as well as other important factors. Rural depopulation in Spain involves a number of interrelated problems, one of the most salient being the aging rural population. The average farmer in Spain is 61 years of age. There is also the problem of gender imbalance in rural areas, where women enjoy few opportunities or alternatives. In turn, low fertility rates, increasing stress on limited public healthcare, education and transpor-tation resources, a lack of cultural activities and poor connectivity are also factors driving rural depopulation. The only group which is increasing the rural areas in Spain are immigrants, who now account for 10% of the rural population, often performing the agricultural, fishing and livestock farming ac-tivities abandoned by native residents. This group, along with young people, and women of all ages and the programs which support them may offer a solution to the challenge of depopulation. The paper concludes with a list of the key features of successful repopulation programs, drawn from a comparison of historic and contemporary models.

Severe thunderstorms are often accompanied by strong vertical air currents, temporary wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The development of this atmospheric phenomenon over tropical shallow water zones, such as bays, can lead to intensification of atmospheric disturbances and produce a small-scale storm surge. Here, the storm surge that occurred on 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf coastal area has been investigated. Air temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, wave height, wind direction, wind speed, geopotential height, zonal components, meridional winds, vertical velocity, relative humidity, and specific humidity obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (and Global Forecast System (FNL) were used to implement the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the main cause of the storm surge was the occurrence of a supercell thunderstorm over the Persian Gulf. The formation of this destructive phenomenon resulted from a downburst under Cumulonimbus cloud and high-velocity air subsidence, after collision with the sea surface coinciding with the high tide. This caused a severe, yet temporary, gust, which in turn caused the creation of the four waves of 3.1 m height along the coast of Bandar Dayyer.

There is increasing evidence that the non-cooperative models describe household structures in developing countries more succinctly compared with the unitary model. Domestic violence against women, which is pervasive in Nigeria even though likely to be under-reported, will need to be understood within the framework of non-cooperative relationship between couples. In this study, we identify factors of domestic violence against women within couples who were currently in marital or cohabiting partnerships. Also, we investigate whether domestic violence influences the decision of women to terminate pregnancies. We use data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to model the predictors of domestic violence, and its influence on the decision to terminate pregnancies among married women. Of the 8,910 married women interviewed for domestic violence, 35.33% had ever experienced a form of domestic violence. We discover that women: with higher education, that is not poor, and resides in urban areas have 44%, 18% and 15% reductions in the odds of experience domestic violence respectively. On the other hand, women who are employed, own land, having husbands/partners that are employed in the agricultural sector, and drink alcohol have 1.16, 1.2, 2.07, and 2.8 times increased odds of experiencing domestic violence accordingly. Also, we uncover that currently married women experiencing domestic violence have 1.25 times increased odds of terminating pregnancies compared with their counterparts that are not experiencing domestic violence. Effectively, poverty, low levels of education, residing in rural areas, drinking habit of husbands/partners, employment, marital capital, and land ownership status of women are risk factors of domestic violence against married women in Nigeria but can be affected by policies and programmes. Importantly, public actions to contain domestic violence in order to improve maternal health should be implemented in the context of the dynamics of a non-cooperative relationship existing between married couples.

The crux of the paper is to present a detailed analysis of COVID-19 data which is available on global basis. This analysis is performed using some specific package of R software. It provides various insights from the data and help to understand the current status of this pandemic in India so that effective measures can be formulated by policymakers. These insights include global summary of this disease, growth rate of this pandemic and performance of SIR model for the given global data. The analysis has been presented in different tables and graphs to understand the outputs of the problem in a more detailed point of view.

As a high fatal disease, fat embolism syndrome is complication, which brought great pain to patient and their family served as a serious social burden. The mechanism of FES remains unclear. Autophagy controls the cell survival and homeostasis by removing the mis-folded proteins and damaged organelles as well as intracellular pathogens through a lysosomal degradation pathway. Increasing research documented that autophagy was wildly involved in variety of human diseases and had huge therapeutic potential. In our study, we first established the rat model of FES with the liquid fat by tail vein injection. We observed the up-regulated MPO expression and activity, increased Wet-to-Dry (W/D) lung weight, promoted quantity of fat granules, and the dominant disorder in the lung rat model of FES, compared to the control group. These observations demonstrated that we successfully build the rat model of FES. Then, we sought to dissect the role of the autophagy in the rat model of FES. The western blots analysis showed that the autophagy was inhibited in the rat model of FES constructed with liquid fat. Furthermore, Rapamycin could restore the repression of autophagy in rat model of FES. These investigations illustrated that autophagy was involved in FES. In addition, our experiments showed that Rapamycin could alleviate the symptoms of FES. Taken together, our study demonstrated the participation of autophagy in FES and further, as a potential therapeutic target, the modulation of autophagy could affect the symptom of rat model of FES.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

A modified Nambu{Jona-Lasinio Model with lattice structure is very instructive. It shows several similar problems and their solutions as the Lattice QCD. We study the limits of the large box size, small cell size and realistic pion mass. In particular, we study the relation of the discrete (bound state) solutions to the physical scattering states, for example the pion-pion scattering.

Mistrust between scientists and non-scientist stakeholders is a key challenge in fishery management. This problem is exacerbated with the use of complex models to support management: these models suffer from difficulties in communicating their results and a lack of confidence from end users. The European eel is an illustrative example; its complex life cycle raises problems of coordination and discussion among the multiple actors involved in the management of the species. The GEREM model has been proposed as a tool for estimating recruitment, but its complexity, which is essential for addressing the characteristics of the species, makes it difficult to understand and accept by all stakeholders. In the context of the SUDOANG project, we proposed a co-parametrization of this assessment model to tackle this mistrust. Through the use of various questionnaires and appropriate statistical analyses, stakeholders were involved in two important choices for the model (zone definition and prior construction). Regular workshops and presentations were organised to explain the model rationales and to gather feedback and expectations. The results show that stakeholders have very similar perceptions of the potential definitions of sub-areas of recruitment in south-western Europe, and these perceptions are consistent with the underlying environmental conditions. On the other hand, the stakeholders have contrasting opinions about the exploitation rates of fisheries in different river basins, and the use of their knowledge currently has little effect on GEREM estimates. More importantly, the overall approach of this study is thought to have reconstructed the trust and confidence among participants.

p-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD) is not only the useful molecular target in treating life-threatening tyrosinemia type I, but also an important target for chemical herbicides. A combined in silico structure-based pharmacophore and molecular docking based virtual screening were performed to identify novel potential HPPD inhibitors. The complex based pharmacophore model (CBP) with 0.721 of ROC used for screening compound showed remarkable ability to retrieve known active ligands from decoy molecule. The ChemDiv database was screened using CBP-Hypo2 as a 3D query, and the best-fit hits subjected to molecular docking with two methods of LibDock and CDOCKER in Accelrys Discovery Studio 2.5(DS 2.5) to discern interactions with key residues at the active site of HPPD. 4 Compounds with top rank in HipHop model and well-known binding model were finally chosen as identification of lead compounds with potentially inhibitory effects on active site of target. The results provided powerful insight to the development of novel HPPD inhibitors herbicides using computational techniques.

With the introduction of policies to promote intangible cultural heritage into schools, intangible cultural heritage plays an increasingly important role in primary education. However, the implementation of the intangible cultural heritage policy in primary schools is mostly formalized, which leads to many problems in the introduction of intangible cultural heritage, such as mainly staying at the level of visual display and public opinion publicity, carrying out a small number of intangible cultural experience activities, and insufficient materialization and scenization of intangible cultural heritage, so that students cannot feel the inherent charm of intangible cultural heritage. In order to promote the development of intangible cultural heritage education, this paper uses the AGIL model of Parsons, literature analysis, case analysis and interview methods to study the promotion path of intangible cultural heritage in primary schools, and proposes solutions such as setting educational goals for school segments, setting up intangible cultural experience activities in schools, combining intangible cultural heritage with subject courses, and establishing a good maintenance mode. After the program is applied into practice, it is found that the use of storytelling by teachers to popularize the relevant knowledge of intangible cultural heritage is conducive to stimulating students' interest and prompting students to think. In addition, teaching and life practice should be combined, and students' five education should be emphasized at the same time to avoid teaching uniformity.

The susceptible-infected-recovered/removed-vaccinated (SIRV) epidemics model is an important generalization of the SIR epidemics model as it accounts quantitatively for the effects of vaccination campaigns on the temporal evolution of epidemics outbreaks. Additional to the time-dependent infection ($a(t)$) and recovery ($\mu (t)$) rates, regulating the transitions between the compartments $S\to I$ and $I\to R$, respectively, the time-dependent vaccination rate $v(t)$ accounts for the transition between the compartments $S\to V$ of susceptible to vaccinated fractions. An accurate analytical approximation is derived for arbitrary and different temporal dependencies of the rates which is valid for all times after the start of the epidemics for which the cumulative fraction of new infections $J(t)\ll 1$. As vaccination campaigns automatically reduce the rate of new infections by transferring susceptible to vaccinated persons, the limit $J(t)\ll 1$ is even better fulfilled than in the SIR-epidemics model. The comparison of the analytical approximation for the temporal dependence of the rate of new infections $\jt(t)=a(t)S(t)I(t)$, the corresponding cumulative fraction $J(t)$, and $V(t)$, respectively, with the exact numerical solution of the SIRV-equations for different illustrative examples proves the accuracy of our approach. The considered illustrative examples include the cases of stationary ratios with a delayed start of vaccinations, and an oscillating ratio of recovery to infection rate with a delayed vaccination at constant rate. The proposed analytical approximation is self-regulating as the final analytical expression for the cumulative fraction $\jinf $ after infinite time allows us to check the validity of the original assumption $J(t)\le \jinf \ll 1$.

This paper aims to provide the smart grid research community with an open and accessible general mathematical framework to develop and implement optimal flexibility mechanisms in large-scale network applications. The motivation of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, flexibility mechanisms are currently a hot topic of research, which is aimed to mitigate variation and uncertainty of electricity demand and supply in decentralised grids with a high aggregated share of renewables. On the other hand, a large part of such related research is performed by heuristic methods, which are generally inefficient (such methods do not guarantee optimality) and difficult to extrapolate for different use cases. Alternatively, this paper presents an MPC-based (Model Predictive Control) framework explicitly including a generic flexibility mechanism which is easy to particularise to specific strategies such as Demand Response, Flexible Production and Energy Efficiency Services. The proposed framework is benchmarked with other non-optimal control configurations to better show the advantages it provides. The work of this paper is completed by the implementation of a generic use case which aims to further clarify the use of the framework and thus, to ease its adoption by other researchers in their specific flexibility mechanisms applications.

This study examines the relationship between entrepreneurship and sustainable devel-opment in Saudi Arabia from 2006 to 2022, focusing on the economic, social, and en-vironmental dimensions. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates both short-run and long-run dynamics to understand how entre-preneurial activities influence sustainable development within the framework of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 initiative. The findings indicate that entrepreneurship significantly contributes to economic growth through job creation and innovation, thereby aiding in the diversification of the economy away from oil dependency. Socially, entrepreneurial ini-tiatives have a positive impact on gender equality and social inclusion by empowering women and integrating youth into the labour market. Environmentally, entrepreneurship helps reduce carbon emissions and promotes sustainable business practices. Despite these positive outcomes, challenges such as regulatory barriers, limited access to finance, and the need for a supportive entrepreneurial ecosystem remain. Recommendations include enhancing entrepreneurial education, providing financial incentives, and streamlining regulatory processes to better support start-ups and SMEs. The study highlights the ne-cessity of addressing these challenges to fully realize the potential of entrepreneurship for sustainable development in Saudi Arabia. By providing empirical evidence on the sig-nificant role of entrepreneurship in driving sustainable development, this research offers actionable insights for policymakers aiming to foster a more resilient and diversified economy in line with Vision 2030. .

The propagation of electromagnetic waves beyond the line of sight can be caused by atmospheric ducts, which are a significant concerns in the fields of radar and communication. This paper utilizes data from seven automatic stations and five radio-sounding stations to statistically analyze the characteristics of the atmospheric ducts in the northwest region of the South China Sea (SCS). After verifying the practicality of numerical analysis data from NCEP CFSv2 and ERA5 in studying atmospheric ducts using measured data, we analyzed the space-time distribution characteristics of the height of the regional evaporation duct and the bottom height of the elevated duct. Using the parabolic equation model, we simulated electromagnetic propagation loss under different frequencies and radiation elevation angles in both uniform and non-uniform duct environments within a typical atmospheric duct structure. The study found that the NCEP CFSv2 data accurately captures the evaporation duct height and duct occurrence rate in the study area, and the elevated duct bottom height obtained from the inversion of ERA5 and the measured data has a good consistency. The occurrence rate and height of evaporation duct in coastal stations in the northwest of the SCS vary significantly by month, demonstrating clear monthly distribution patterns. Conversely, changes in the Xisha station are minimal, indicating good temporal uniformity. For lower atmospheric ducts, the difference in occurrence rates between 00:00 and 12:00 (UTC) is negligible. The occurrence probability of elevated ducts in the Beibu Gulf area is relatively high, mainly concentrated from January to April, and the Xisha area is dominated by surface ducts without foundation layer, mainly concentrated from June to August. The monsoon plays a critical role in the generation and evolution of atmospheric ducts in the northwest of the SCS, with the height of the evaporation duct increasing and the bottom height of the elevated duct decreasing after the onset of the summer monsoon. Electromagnetic propagation simulations demonstrate that higher frequency and lower elevation angles of radiation sources in the trapping layer of the evaporation duct make it easier to be trapped. As the evaporation duct height decreases, the amplitude of the "sinusoidal fluctuation" of the propagation loss also decreases. Frequency changes of the radiation source in the surface duct environment have minimal impact on electromagnetic propagation loss, but the elevation angle of the radiation source is a critical factor. The frequency of the "sinusoidal fluctuation" in propagation loss is higher in a hybrid duct environment compared to a uniform surface duct. Additionally, the propagation loss increases faster with distance at the height of the evaporation duct, resulting in greater electromagnetic propagation loss.

Physics of high-Tc superconducting cuprates is obscured by the effect of strong electronic correlations. One way to overcome the problem is to seek for an exact solution at least within the small cluster and expand it to the whole crystal. Such an approach is in the heart of the cluster perturbation theory (CPT). Here we develop CPT for the dynamic charge and spin susceptibilities (spin-CPT), within which the correlation effects are explicitly taken into account by the exact diagonalization. We apply spin-CPT to the effective two-band Hubbard model for the cuprates obtained from the three-band Emery model and calculate one- and two-particle correlation functions, namely, spectral function and spin and charge susceptibilities. Doping dependence of the spin susceptibility was studied within spin-CPT and CPT-RPA that is the CPT generalization of the random phase approximation (RPA). Both methods produce the low energy response at four incommensurate wave vectors in qualitative agreement to the results of the inelastic neutron scattering on overdoped cuprates.

The dynamic increase in non-cash transactions is a global trend in payments. In rich countries, cashless transactions have been dynamically replacing cash. The fact that non-cash transactions are pro-ecological is worth noting. This means that it is conducive to sustainable development of a country's economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the process of changes in non-cash payments in Poland, against the background of payment card use for ATM cash withdrawals. The tool used to analyze the potential process of cash transaction erosion caused by non-cash payments is a two-equation econometric model with feedback. For this purpose, statistical data, obtained from the National Bank of Poland was used. Accordingly, clarification is expected regarding the question of whether the Polish payment system is heading towards a dominance of cashless transactions or not. The reaction, in the form of changes in the value of non-cash payment card transactions in Poland, affected by the increase in the wealth of citizens, measured by an increase in the average pay, was examined. The modeling results were used to estimate forecasts of the share of non-cash transactions in the total value of market transactions and of the share of ATM cash withdrawals in the total value of transactions.

Traumatic Brain Injury represents a significant public health concern due to its role in traumatic death and disability, often caused by head impacts or rapid accelerations. Despite advancements in Finite Element Head Models, existing models primarily represent adult males, neglecting anatomical and physiological differences between genders and age groups. Additionally, the mechanistic roles of specific intracranial tissues, such as the dura mater, have conventionally been overlooked. To better understand the mechanical behavior of the brain and its injured regions in the context of TBI, including the dura mater, this study proposes the development of a Female Finite Element Head Model. This model, representative of a middle-aged female subject, was developed using medical image-derived geometry and finite element modeling techniques. The validation results demonstrate a similarity between the numerical displacement curves and those obtained experimentally. In the model with dura mater, the numerical results show analogous behavior to the experimental results, despite minimal variations in the amplitude of the curves. These advancements highlight the significance of including the dura mater in biomechanical brain modeling. Incorporating the dura mater in Finite Element Head Models produces more realistic results than models without it. This emphasizes the importance of enhancing biomechanical models to better represent anatomical complexity.

In an increasingly complex world there is a real, urgent need for methodologies to enable engineers to model complex sociotechnical systems, as these now seem to describe the majority of systems in use today. This is of course exacerbated by the increasing involvement and augmentation with “black box” AI contributions. Hollnagel produced a methodology, (FRAM) which did allow the analyst in-sights into these systems’ behaviour, but the model-based system engineering applications demand numbers and a quantitative ap-proach. In the last 10 years, this original approach developed to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from agent or component details), has been further developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, and can pull it all together into dynamic models, (as opposed to static, fixed System Theoretic Process Accimaps), from which analysts can discern how they really work in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. This paper describes how the FRAM methodology has now been extended to provide these extra, essential attributes. It also describes its implementation using an open-source software, freely available for use and verification on the GitHub site.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the nature of relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction thorough SERVQUAL model. This study can be considered as an applied research, from purpose point of view and descriptive-survey, with regards to the nature and method. Passengers of Kaveh and Sofeh terminal in Isfahan have been considered as research population. Sample size included 200 passengers witch was determined by Cochran formula. Spss 19 was used to analyze collected data. Results show that there is a significant positive relationship between service quality and customers’ satisfaction. It is also proved that in terms of the importance of satisfactions’ dimensions, assurance is the most important aspect and then reliability, empathy, equipment appearance and responsiveness in sequence are the most important dimensions.

High-strength low-alloy steels (HSLAs) are widely used in the structural body components of many domestic motor vehicles owing to their better mechanical properties and greater resistance. The real production process of HSLA steelmaking can be regarded as a model that builds on the relationship between process parameters and product quality attributes. A surrogate modeling method is used, and the resulting production process model can be applied to predict the optimal manufacturing process parameters. We used different methods in this paper to build such a surrogate model, including linear regression, random forests, support vector regression, multilayer perception, and a simplified VGG model. We then applied three bio-inspired search algorithms, namely particle swarm optimization, the artificial bee colony algorithm, and the firefly algorithm, to search for the optimal controllable manufacturing process parameters. Through experiments on 9,000 test samples used for building the surrogate model, and 299 test samples for making the optimal process parameter selection, we found that the combination of a simplified VGG model and the firefly algorithm was the most successful at reaching a success rate of 100%—in other words, when the product quality attributes of all test samples satisfy the mechanical requirements of the end products.

Background: There is a significant role for mind in health and disease. Subjective well-being (SWB) is an important indicator of a person’s psychological status beyond the traditional anxiety and depression. Shell and core (S&C) model of SWB is new modular framework has placeholders for various forms of positive feeling that can be adopted as an assessment tool in clinical settings.Method: 416 subjects recruited using social media platforms to complete an anonymous online survey probing into their demographic information, financial status, several well-being attributes, and personality traits. The obtained information was analyzed and the factors that most closely correlated with the sense of overall SWB were included in the model.Results: Overall, 73% of the subjects indicated that they are happy and the overall sense of SWB did not depend on gender or household income. Only those psychological traits with significant correlation with SWB were used to construct the proposed S&C model. The model comprises three main components—the shell of happiness that represents experiential happiness, i.e., positive feelings as a result of one’s experiences with their environment. The core of happiness represents inner happiness. The interface layer, between the shell and core of happiness consists of a set of coping and defense mechanisms that protects the core of happiness denoted as a happiness suit of armor (HSOA).Conclusion: The S&C model is a comprehensive model of SWB that is used as a framework to capture various aspects of happiness under a unifying umbrella. It can thus be used as an assessment tools at both personal and population level. It could also be adopted to identify the personality traits and coping mechanisms that are important for the overall sense of well-being, which could then be targeted as a part of psychological interventions aimed at individuals with different medical conditions.

Floods in various regions cause irreparable damage to infrastructure, agricultural lands, and industrial centers. In recent years, due to the effects of climate change and, in particular, the increased activity of the monsoon system in the Balochistan region located in southern Sistan and Baluchestan province, local rivers have overflowed, causing widespread flooding and significant damage. Accurate flood routing not only provides decision-makers with precise information about flood volume and flow behavior but also facilitates planning for effective preventive measures. In this study, the Muskingum-Cunge model was used to simulate floods in eight major rivers of Balochistan, including Kajou, Sarbaz, Nik Shahr, Kehir, Bahu, Sia Jangal, Rapch, and Kamb. The model parameters (K and X) were optimized using two machine learning algorithms: Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Harmony Search (HS). The results showed that in most stations, the PSO algorithm outperformed HS. The algorithms were evaluated using the coefficient of residual mass (CRM), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), efficiency (EF), and agreement index (d). For instance, at the Kajou station, PSO improved CRM by 0.017, Ef by 0.921, d by 0.982, and NRMSE by 0.099 compared to HS. At the Kamb station, both algorithms yielded comparable results. Considering the overall better performance of the PSO algorithm in most evaluation indices, it can be concluded that this algorithm is a more suitable option for optimizing the parameters of the Muskingum-Cunge model and simulating flood hydrographs with higher accuracy at most of the studied stations.

Based on the two-flavors Polyakov quark-meson model, we study the bubble dynamics of a first-order phase transition in chiral phase diagram at high density but low temperature in the framework of the homogeneous thermal nucleation theory. Under the mean-field approximation, after obtaining the effective potential with inclusion of the fermionic vacuum term, we build a geometric approach to probe two possibly existing minima, which can actually tunnel through a bounce interpolated between a metastable vacuum to an adjacent true vacuum. By separating our discussions into a weak first-order hadron quark phase transition and strong ones, the bubble profiles, the surface tension, the typical radius of the bounce and the saddle point action in the presence of a nucleation bubble as a function of temperature are numerically calculated in detail as the chemical potentials are fixed at $\mu=306 \mathrm{MeV}$ and $\mu=310 \mathrm{MeV}$. our results show that the surface tension remains a small value even when the density is very high and phase boundaries for hadron and quark matter should be resized properly according to the saddle point action evaluated on the bounce. It is also noticed that the inclusion of the deconfinement phase transition in term of the Polyakov loop does not change chiral phase transition dramatically for light quarks.

An imperative challenge emerges from the demand to construct a scientific method to recent agricultural and rural policies throughout the world. The objective of the present study is to conduct an ex-post quantitative evaluation of the Comprehensive Rural Village Development Project, a representative rural development project operated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, a central government agency in South Korea. The primary purpose of the project is to ensure sustainable rural society. This study found a moderate but significant positive impact of the policy in enhancing the standard of living in rural areas. The present study concludes with suggesting some policy implications and future directions of policy evaluation studies.

This paper introduces a surrogate model to reduce the huge computational load in the process of simulation-optimization and uncertainty analysis. First, the groundwater numerical simulation model was established, calibrated and verified in the northeast of Hetao Plain. Second, two surrogate models of simulation model were established using support vector regression (SVR) method, one (surrogate model A, SMA) was used to describe the corresponding relationship between the pumping rate and average groundwater table drawdown, and another (surrogate model B, SMB) was used to express the corresponding relationship between the hydrogeological parameter values and average groundwater table drawdown. Third, an optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the maximum total pumping rate as objective function and the limitative average groundwater table drawdown as constraint condition, the SMA was invoked by the optimization model for obtaining the optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Finally, the SMB was invoked in the process of uncertainty analysis for assessing the reliability of optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error between simulation model and the two surrogate models are both less than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The SVR surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational load, but also maintain high computational accuracy. The optimal total pumping rate is 7947 m3/d and the reliability of optimal scheme is 40.21%. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme and assessing the reliability of scheme quickly and accurately.

As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more 'sustainable' conventional biofuels plan and a 'no-mandate' scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.

Thermodynamic studies consider living entities as dissipative structures. Organisms maintain and develop an orderly structure by exchanging matter, energy, and entropy with the surrounding environment; thus, maintaining life and growth. For a single cell, the temperature, volume, content concentration, and content complexity are four control variables. For warm-blooded animals, both temperature and content concentration are assumed to be constant, and only volume and content complexity, i.e., various proteins, nucleic acids, and small molecular substances in the cell and their interactions, are considered as acting variables. Thus, the potential function of a single cell should conform to the cusp catastrophe model. As the studies on the specific mathematical models of the relationship between the volume and content complexity are not available, we could not propose specific methods for the specific variants of the potential function of this cusp catastrophe model. We could only present our approximate results based on the basic characteristics of the cusp catastrophe model. We speculated that when a single cell is in a stable state, it cannot undergo differentiation, dedifferentiation, and division. These behaviors occur only when the cell enters an unstable state. Based on this speculation, we divided somatic cells of warm-blooded animals into two types, namely stable cells and non-steady cells. If we consider a warm-blooded animal as a whole dissipative structure, its control variables should have steady-state cells, non-steady-state cells, and negative entropy input. If we assume that the negative entropy input is constant, the proportion of non-steady cells and the total number of cells can be used as the control variables of the potential function. For warm-blooded animals, their potential function also conforms to the cusp catastrophe model. Because the studies on the relationship between the proportion of non-steady-state cells and the total cell number are rare, we could not propose specific methods for the variation of the potential function of this cusp catastrophe model. We could only present our approximate results according to the basic characteristics of the cusp catastrophe model. We speculated that as individuals, animals should be in a stable state during development. Once they enter an unstable state, they will fall ill or die. For humans, the proportion of non-steady cells decreases during the growth process from a fertilized egg to old age. From the fertilized egg to adulthood, the total cell number increases; however, in old age, the total cell number begins to decrease gradually. The entire developmental curve will gradually enter an unstable state. We speculated that once the developmental curve of a human enters an unstable state, it is death for the elderly.

Much research has been conducted to determine how hair regeneration is regulated, as this could provide therapeutic, cosmetic, and even psychological interventions for hair loss. The current study focused on the hair growth effect and effective utilization of fatty oil obtained from Bryde's whales through high-throughput DNA microarray approach in conjunction with immunohistochemical observations. The research also examined the mechanisms and factors involved in hair growth. In an experiment using female C57BL/6J mice, the vehicle control group (VC: propylene glycol: ethanol: water), the positive control group (MXD: 3% minoxidil), and the experimental group (WO: 20% Whale Oil) were topically applied to the back of the mouse. The results showed that 3% MXD and 20% WO were more effective than VC in promoting hair growth, especially 20% WO. Furthermore, in hematoxylin and eosin-stained skin tissue, an increase in the number of hair follicles and subcutaneous tissue thickness was observed with 20% WO. Whole-genome transcriptomic analysis also showed that 20% WO may have lower stress- and inflammation-related responses than 3% MXD. Therefore, whale oil can be expected to be used as a safe hair growth agent.

Various sudden shifts in financial market conditions over the past decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms' credit behavior. To characterize such effect quantitatively, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms' credit rating transitions with the possibility of market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms' observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms' credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms' credit rating transitions.

Driven by mounting environmental apprehensions stemming from the over dependence on fossil fuels in energy and transportation sectors, extensive exploration into alternative energy sources, particularly biomass, has stimulated profound research on harnessing the potential of computational and mathematical techniques. This comprehensive survey delves into optimal models and strategies, unveiling their pivotal role in the design of biomass gasification processes.of hydrogen through biomass gasification. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the computational and mathematical techniques employed in optimizing biomass gasification processes, with a specific focus on enhancing hydrogen yield. Through an extensive literature review, various models and strategies will be examined, including thermodynamic analysis, kinetic modeling, reactor design, and process optimization. By uncovering the power of these techniques, we aim to contribute to the advancement of sustainable and efficient biomass utilization for the hydrogen-based future economy.This paper aims to provide an updated and comprehensive coverage of the investigations conducted on the potential of producing hydrogen from biomass through gasification. To achieve this, we incorporate the latest works that have utilized numerical modeling, simulation, optimization techniques, process heat integration, and co-generation in their studies. By encompassing these aspects, we aim to offer a broader and more in-depth re-appraisal of the subject matter. This will ensure that readers gain a holistic understanding of the advances made in the field and the potential for sustainable hydrogen production of biomass gasification.Through a meticulous re-appraisal and analysis of each subject, we can identify their respective strengths and areas that require further research effort. By thoroughly examining numerical modeling, simulation, optimization techniques, process heat integration, and co-generation, we can assess their effectiveness and applicability in the context of biomass gasification for hydrogen production. This analysis shed light on the areas where these techniques excel, as well as pinpoint limitations or gaps in current understanding. By identifying these areas, we can highlight the need for further research and development, enabling us to make significant advancements in biomass gasification processes and pave the way for a sustainable and efficient hydrogen-based future economy..

Learning models of the cerebellum propose that the cerebellum implements an algorithm which makes iterative adjustments to synaptic transmission strength that collectively determine the response to input in learned patterns following training. We propose instead that pattern recognition and control of firing by output cells are separately handled functions which process independently variable data. This can account for the evidence without a machine learning algorithm. The model is a hybrid of physiological arguments and computational methods used to test and quantify the ideas. We argue inter alia that learning operates at the level of functional groups of Purkinje cells defined by their shared climbing fibre input; Golgi cells have several functions and regulation of parallel fibre activity by Golgi cells is not in the expected way; recoding of input to the cerebellum received in the granular layer converts the number of input variables (variables expressed in mossy fibre input to the system) into a much reduced number of functional variables expressed by internal signals traffic; circuits simultaneously execute separate but integrated functions of pattern memory and output coding; they are able to operate separately because the expression of data used in each varies independently of the other; output rates are not learned but controlled by recent relevant input signals in a window opened by pattern memory; the moment-to-moment probability that a Purkinje cell spikes is synchronised across a microzone; a principal function of functional organisation of Purkinje cells into microzones is to increase resolution of rate coded information received by the output cells of the circuit, and to do so in a very short integration window, so that circuit architecture can be explained partly as a device with this function.

Applied talent is not only a builder of human civilization but also a promoter of economic development. They not only need systematic and solid engineering theoretical knowledge but also rich engineering practical experience. Applied undergraduate colleges are the cradle for cultivating applied talent and shoulder the important mission of cultivating various types of applied talent for society. With the rapid development of higher education, the number of applied undergraduate institutions has sharply increased, but the quality of applied talent cultivated by them has shown a significant decline, which greatly restricts the pace of industrial development in the world. This article proposes a new concept of promoting the "three certificates" (graduation certificate, degree certificate, and skill certificate) education model in applied undergraduate colleges, which is of great significance for the country to cultivate composite talents with the ability of "product design, production management, and product processing" at the same time.

Irrigation and debridement using an irrigation solution is a fundamental step during the surgi-cal treatment of both acute and chronic periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). However, there is no consensus on the optimal solution, nor is there sufficient evidence on optimal irrigation time and combination of solutions. Therefore, it is necessary to determine which solution or combi-nation of solutions is most efficacious against biofilm, as well as the optimal irrigation time. We conducted an experimental in vitro model by inoculating stainless steel discs with ATCC strains of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus, Pseudomonas aeru-ginosa, and a clinical strain of Staphylococcus epidermidis. The discs were all irrigated with com-monly used antiseptic solutions (10% and 3% povidone iodine, hydrogen peroxide, 3% acetic ac-id, and Bactisure™) for 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min and their combinations for 9 min (3 min each) vs. sterile saline as a positive control. We evaluated the reduction in biofilm based on colony form-ing unit (cfu) counts and, in combination assays, also based on cell viability and scanning elec-tron microscopy. All antiseptics alone reduced more than 90% of cfu counts after 1 min of irriga-tion; the worst results were for hydrogen peroxide and 3% acetic acid. When solutions were combined, the best results were observed for all those starting with acetic acid, in terms of both reduction of log cfu/ml counts and viable cells. We consider that a combination of antiseptic so-lutions, particularly that comprising the sequence acetic acid+povidone iodine+hydrogen per-oxide, would be the best option for chemical debridement during PJI surgery.

Essential oils (EO) are a great antimicrobial resource against bacterial resistance in public health. Math models are useful describing the growth, survival, and inactivation of microorganisms against antimicrobials. We evaluated the antimicrobial activity of M. armillaris EO obtained from plants placed in the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) against Staphylococcus aureus. Minimum Inhibitory and Bactericidal Concentrations were close and decreased slightly acidifying the medium from pH 7.4 to 6.5 and 5.0. This result was also evidenced by applying a sigmoid model, where the time and EO concentration necessaries to achieve 50% of the maximum effect decreased when medium was acidified. Moreover, at pH 7.4, applying the Gompertz model, we found that subinhibitory concentrations of EO decreased the growth rate and the maximum population density, and increased the latency period respect to the control. Additionally, we established physicochemical parameters for quality control and standardization of M. armillaris EO. Mathematical modelling allowed us to estimate key parameters in the behavior of S. aureus and Melaleuca armillaris EO at different pHs. This is interesting in situations where the pH changes are relevant, such as the control of intracellular infections in public health or the development of preservatives for food industry.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

Abstract: Purpose – In this article we lay out the change management practices adopted by financial firms in small states within the Eurozone. We determine whether these organisations have the ability to identify triggers for change (Red Flags) and subject them to eight thematic elements to understand whether management practices can continue to exist and support operational environments, even when unexpected circumstances affect their day to day operations and processes. In doing this we examine the extent to which the eight thematic elements from the model designed by Dalli Gonzi, (2019) (The Dali Model) can assist organisations in risk identification and business continuity planning. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire purposely designed for this study was administered to personnel working in internal controls within financial institutions of small Eurozone states. The participants were asked to grade statements using a 5-point Likert scale, ‘1’ being ‘totally disagree’ and ‘5’ being totally agree’ to the statement posed under the thematic elements forming the basis of the Dali Model. Findings – Factor analysis provided support for the eight hypothesised dimensions of the decision-making model: connection, capacity, governance, network, policy, training, process improvement, standards. Originality/value – The study provides a better understanding and support of “best practice” in change management through an understanding and assessment of the eight factors that are the basis of this model. It addresses practical recommendations to ensure application to a wider frame of use.

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the 2019-nCov epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to January 31, 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying level of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling 2019-nCov epidemics.

This study evaluates the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 using the DEA-SBM model. The nexus between endogenous and exogenous variables is estimated using the Tobit model. The findings reveal an overall increasing trend in agricultural carbon emissions, with significant variations in efficiency values among different cities, leading to a severe polarization. Spatial evaluation shows a high distribution trend in the central region and low in the eastern and western regions of Shandong Province. The empirical tests conducted for Shandong Province and its three regions indicate that urbanization plays a major role in sup-porting the growth of agricultural carbon emission efficiency, while the education level of the la-bor force has a suppressive impact. Economic development and crop cultivation structure, how-ever, have no significant influence. The impact of these variables varies across the eastern, central, and western regions. The proposed countermeasures include improving planting structure and reducing brain drain in the eastern region, strengthening agricultural and rural inputs and in-creasing the added value of agricultural products in the central region, and intensifying the link-age between urbanization and industrial layout in the western region to reduce agricultural car-bon emissions efficiency in Shandong Province.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

This study aims to develop an elderly care system for improving the interpersonal relationship of the elderly with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by employing the speaker recognition technique and association functionality of social network platforms. Firstly, the speaker recognition units based on the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and Gaussian Mixture Model-Universal Background Model (GMM-UBM) are implemented to identify the visitor via individual input utterance. After the visitor is identified, the proposed system will be linked to the private database and social network platforms to extract the associated message of two parties. Experimental results indicate that the speaker recognition unit based on GMM-UBM achieves the best performance. Finally, five elderly persons are invited to measure the usability of the proposed system. A questionnaire is used to survey the five elderly persons, and the result indicates that the proposed system is highly potentially applicable in improving the interpersonal relationship of the elderly with MCI.

In the transition towards sustainable energy sources, hydrogen has emerged as the predominant alternative after fossil fuels. This comprehensive literature review delves into the evolving landscape of hydrogen launching strategies within the energy market. Numerous countries have strategically initiated efforts to introduce products based on hydrogen, underscoring the global acknowledgment of the potential inherent in hydrogen. Despite witnessing significant growth in the adoption of hydrogen energy worldwide, impediments to its widespread commercialization persist. This review identifies key barriers, including cost structures, technical complexities, and marketing challenges, hindering the establishment of a robust hydrogen energy market. The article critically examines the actions already undertaken to harness hydrogen energy for commercial purposes, leveraging scientific insights and statistical data. By carefully examining the current state of hydrogen energy initiatives, the review highlights gaps in existing strategies that require thoughtful consideration. Insights derived from scientific and statistical analyses inform the identification of barriers and contribute to a nuanced understanding of the challenges faced in the journey towards hydrogen energy commercialization. Ultimately, the article presents a strategic proposal outlining marketing actions geared towards expediting the commercialization and widespread adoption of hydrogen energy. Grounded in a thorough review of existing literature and supported by scientific and statistical evidence, this comprehensive analysis offers valuable insights for stakeholders seeking to navigate the intricate landscape of hydrogen energy in the global energy market.

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

We utilized all Spanish marriage records available at the municipality level from 2005-2007 to model spatial variations in intermarriage. We constructed a spatial regime zero inflated Poisson model and grouped-data probit model, with spatially lagged regressors, to predict the absolute and relative presence of intermarriage between Spaniards and migrants based on structural characteristics of the local marriage markets and their neighboring areas (i.e., relative group size, homogeneity of national origins, and sex ratio indicators). Our models do not assume collapsibility of the marriage market. Instead, they incorporate the local dimension of the marriage market and examine the association between intermarriage and structural variables at the spatial local level. The model also investigates intermarriage variation by size of place. The local characteristics of the marriage markets are robust indicators of both the absolute and relative importance of intermarriage, but their impact varies by size of municipality. The relative size of the migrant community positively impacts intermarriage. The homogeneity of the origins of migrants is negatively related to it. The impact of sex ratios in the migrant and native communities on intermarriage is not uniform across all municipalities and is not always related to more intermarriage.

The paper presents a simplified laminar model with which the deformation of soil layers (base, subbase and subgrade courses) under flexible pavements due to repeated traffic load can be determined. In the first step, the cyclic strain amplitude is calculated using a nonlinear material model that is based on particle size distribution parameters (d50 and CU) and dependent on the mean normal stress, relative density and actual strain level. In the second step, the HCA (High Cycle Accumulation) model is used to calculate the residual settlement of each sublayer as a function of the number of cycles. It is shown that the developed model is suitable for describing different types of subgrades and pavement cross-sections. It is also demonstrated with finite element calculations that the developed model describes both the elastic and plastic strains sufficiently accurately. The developed model can predict the settlement and rutting of pavement structures with sufficient accuracy based on easily available particle size distribution parameters without the need of complex laboratory and finite element tests.

We review and assess the classic SIR and SEIR epidemiological models regarding possible applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of numerous more complicated models, we show how the qualitative features of the solution to the SIR and SEIR models continue to provide valuable public health insights in some scenarios. Using estimated COVID-19 data as of this date, the SEIR model shows that if it were possible to reduce R₀ from 2.5 to 1.25 through social distancing and other measures, the maximum fraction of the population that would become infected at any particular time would drop from 17% to 4%, provided that all of the model assumptions are satisfied. Finally, we compare the classic SIR model with a recent stochastic model with favorable results. Since this comparison underscores the importance of underlying connectivity assumptions, we conclude with Monte-Carlo simulations with specific connectivity that reproduce the classical SIR model with standard incidence.

The marine region of the Zhongjieshan Islands is an essential component and location for enhancement and release in Zhoushan Fishing Ground. The scientific assessment of the target species' ecological carrying capacity serves as the foundation for augmentation and release efforts. Based on data from the 2021-2022 survey of biological resources in the waters of Zhongjieshan islands, the Ecopath model was built to analyze the trophic structure, energy flow, and overall characteristics of the ecosystem, as well as the ecological carrying capacity of the main enhancement and releasing species, Larimichthys crocea and Sepiella maindroni. The ecosystem's functional groups had trophic levels ranging from 1 to 3.48, with an average energy transfer efficiency of 8.11% and total flow of 2125.905 t·km-2. The ratio of total primary output to total respiration is 1.713. Zhongjieshan Islands' ecosystem was currently at an embryonic stage. The ecological carrying capacity of Larimichthys crocea and Sepiella maindroni was calculated to be 0.2325 t·km-2 and 0.1617 t·km-2, separately or individually. Larimichthys crocea and Sepiella maindroni showed enormous potential for development and release. The findings offered essential data for ecological studies on the waters of Zhongjieshan Islands, as well as a reference for enhancement and release efforts in this area.

We investigate the behavior of thermal quantum coherence in the Heisenberg XXX model for a two-qubit system placed in independently controllable Inhomogeneous magnetic fields applied to two qubits respectively. We discuss the behavior of quantum coherence by systematically varying the coupling parameter, magnetic field, and temperature for both ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic cases. The results show the interesting behavior of quantum coherence in a certain range of parameters. Generally, it is observed that quantum correlations decay with temperature, but in the ferromagnetic case with uniform magnetic interaction, it rises with temperature up to a certain threshold value and ultimately it decreases its value to zero. Moreover, it is observed that preserving the quantum coherence for small temperatures is very hard with the increasing magnetic field because, at small temperatures, quantum coherence decays sharply with the increase in magnetic field whereas at larger temperatures it decays completely at fairly large values of the magnetic field. The variation of quantum coherence with uniform magnetic field in the antiferromagnetic case is observed to be Gaussian for larger temperature but at zero or nearly zero temperature, it behaves as a constant function for uniform magnetic field up to a threshold value and then decays to zero with an infinite slope. This shows the signature of quantum phase transition from quantum nature to classicality.

This study aims to identify the model that best approximates the credit spread that should be fixed on debt instruments issued by both public and private companies, considering the particularities of the Mexican market. Five models were analyzed: Merton's [1], those proposed by Denzler et al., the one presented in this paper, which includes the conformable derivatives, taking as a reference the change of variable made by Morales-Bañuelos et al., and the Corporate Default Risk Model (DRSK) for Publics Firms of Bloomberg [4]. The required financial information was obtained from the Bloomberg platform, from which the probabilities of default, credit spreads, and credit ratings for each company in the sample under the model (DRSK) were extracted directly. Likewise, the program developed by Moody's K.M.V. was used to obtain the EDF (Expected Default Frequencies). It was concluded that the Modified Merton model approximates to a greater extent the credit spreads that fix on a prime rate on the loans granted to the Mexican non-financial companies.

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) influences fire activity at landscape scale and fire behavior in laboratory experiments. However, field evidences linking LFMC to fire behavior are very limited despite numerous field experiments. In the present study, we reanalyze a shrubland fire dataset with a special focus on LFMC to explain this counterintuitive outcome. We found that this controversy might result from three reasons. First, the range of experimental LFMC data was too moist to reveal significant effect with the widespread exponential or power functions. Indeed, LFMC exhibited a strong effect below 100%, but marginal above this threshold, contrary to these functions. Second, we found that the LFMC significance was unlikely when the size of the dataset was smaller than 40. Finally, a complementary analysis suggested that 10 to 15% of random measurement error in variables could lead to an underestimation by 30 % of the LFMC effect. The effect of LFMC in field experiments is thus stronger than previously reported in the range prevailing during the actual French fire season and in accordance with observations at different scales. This highlights the need to improve our understanding of the relationship between LFMC and fire behavior to refine fire danger predictions.

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and nonlinear interactions related to society, economy, water resources and the water environment. A full understanding of its internal mechanism is conducive to the further improvement of the regional WRCC. This article focuses on the temporal and spatial variability of WRCC to explore a method of dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the Pressure-State-Response (PSR)framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, The Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process-entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision of the water resources shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which makes the province's water resources carrying capacity have a tendency to become better gradually. At the same time, the system dynamics model (SD) of water resources carrying capacity based on the analysis of the model structure was established. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water-saving, cross-regional water transfer and coordinated development, each scenario divided into high and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes, then total 6 schemes between 2023 and 2030 were simulated and predicted respectively. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of economy and population, the efficient water conservation and inter-basin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high-speed) is the best choice for sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Multimodal therapy including surgery, radiation treatment and temozolomide (TMZ) is performed on glioblastoma (GBM). However, the prognosis is still poor and there is an urgent need to develop effective treatments to improve survival. Molecular biological analysis was conducted to exam-ine the signal activation patterns at GBM specimens and remains an open problem. Advanced macrolides, such as azithromycin, reduce the phosphorylation of p70 ribosomal protein S6 kinase (p70S6K), a downstream mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) effector, and suppress the proliferation of T-cells. We focused on its unique profile and screened for the antitumor activity of approved macrolide antibiotics. Clindamycin (CLD) reduced the viability of GBM cells in vitro. We assessed the effects of the candidate macrolide on the mTOR pathway through Western blotting. CLD attenuated p70S6K phosphorylation in a dose dependent manner. These effects of on GBM cells were enhanced by co-treatment with TMZ. Furthermore, CLD inhibited the expression of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) protein in cultured cells. In the mouse xenograft model, CLD and TMZ co-administration significantly suppressed the tumor growth and markedly decreased the number of Ki-67 (clone MIB-1) positive cells within the tumor. These results suggest that CLD suppresses GBM cell growth by the inhibiting mTOR signaling. Moreover, CLD and TMZ showed promising synergistic antitumor activity.

The air transport industry has experienced important transformations over the last decades, despite its continuous global trend of growth. After air transport liberalization process, the present market situation depicts a reduced number of large hub & spoke airlines and an important number of so-called low-cost carriers (LCC). One may wonder why airlines that were once thriving and profitable before liberalization have disappeared, some even recently amid an expansion in demand. To answer that question and others related to it, this paper proposes a management model focused on the airline business, putting in relation the main variables defining the business behavior of an airline. The lessons learned from the past, and the solutions gathered from the model related with, will provide a sound basis to address the new challenges for the next years to come, as it is the case of the new environmental regulations focused on the air transport decarbonization.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) responsibility fulfillment increasingly affects enterprise valuation. Although researchers debate about the precise effects, the prevailing view suggests a linear relationship between ESG performance and enterprise value. This study introduces a novel ESG responsibility performance metric through the Regulated Intermediary Model to delve into this relationship within the Chinese context. Our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between ESG performance and enterprise value, with financing constraints having a significant moderating effect. These findings remain robust after employing instrumental variables to mitigate potential endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that this inverted U-shaped relationship is particularly pronounced in non-polluting and non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover, a comparison between equity and debt financing mechanisms underscores that improved ESG performance is associated with lower cost of equity financing, thereby enhancing enterprise value. Financial institutions are encouraged to leverage innovative financial instruments to diversify enterprise financing channels and alleviate financing constraints of enterprises that fulfill their ESG responsibilities.

Abstract. Background: COVID-19's first victim was announced by Chinese health authorities on the 11th of January 2020. On January 13, the first official case was reported outside China, in Thailand. On January 25, the same occurred in São Paulo and on March 8, the first case was recorded in Minas Gerais. From that point onwards until the 3rd of October 2020, a total of 370,911 cases and 9,204 deaths were recorded in the state. This study aims to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 with incidence from March 22 to October 3 of 2020. Methods: The database itself was obtained from Health Division of Minas Gerais state. The vulnerability index was calculated using a principal component analysis. Moran's I autocorrelation was tested, z-score and P-value < 0.05. Results: From March 22 to October 3 of 2020 the incidence level varied from 45.680/100,000 to 312.130/100,000. The most influential variables were: illiteracy, gross domestic product and breath apparel per municipality. The clusters were concentrated in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Zona da Mata and Triangulo Mineiro. Conclusion: The spatial distribution of COVID-19 from week 13 until week 40 showed that different levels of endemicity and mesoregional vulnerabilities were represented in these maps.

This study is the first to examine whether the performance of credit rating, one of the most important data-based decision-making of banks, can be improved by using banking system log data that is extensively accumulated inside the bank for system operation. This study uses the log data recorded for the mobile app system of Kakaobank, a leading internet bank used by more than 14 million people in Korea. After generating candidate variables from Kakaobank's vast log data, we develop a credit scoring model by utilizing variables with high information values. Consequently, the discrimination power of the new model compared to the credit bureau grades was significantly improved by 1.84% points based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. Therefore, the results of this study imply that if a bank utilizes its log data that have already been extensively accumulated inside the bank, decision-making systems, including credit scoring, can be efficiently improved at a low cost.

Accurate monthly runoff estimation is fundamental in water resources management, planning, and development, resulting in preventing and reducing water-related problems, such as flooding and drought. This article evaluates the performance of the monthly hydrological rainfall-runoff model, GR2M model, in Thailand's southern basins. The GR2M model requires only two parameters, and no prior research has been reported on its application in this region. The 37 runoff stations, which are distributively located in three sub-watersheds of Thailand's southern region, namely; Thale Sap Songkhla, Peninsular-East Coast, and Peninsular-West Coast, were selected as study cases. The available monthly hydrological data of runoff, rainfall, air temperature from the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) were collected and analyzed. Thornthwaite method was utilized for the determination of evapotranspiration. The model's performance was conducted using three statistical indices: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation Coefficient (r), and Overall Index (OPI). The model's calibration results for 37 runoff stations gave the average of NSE, r, and OPI of 0.637, 0.825, and 0.757, and those values for verification of 0.465, 0.750, and 0.639, respectively. It indicated a model's acceptable performance and could apply the GR2M model for determining monthly runoff variation in this region. The spatial distribution of X1 and X2 values was conducted by using IDW method. It was susceptible to the X1 value and X2 value of approximately more than 0.90 gave the higher model's performance.

Background: COVID-19 has a major impact on businesses, with employee absenteeism resulting in lost productivity and medical costs to employers as well as lost wages and medical costs to employees. The aim of this analysis was to assess the economic impact of workplace COVID-19 vaccination in the United States (US).Methods: A decision tree economic model, populated with US data for the working-age population, estimated the burden of COVID-19 in the workplace (symptomatic infections, long COVID cases, inpatient/outpatient care, absent days) with and without vaccination. Disease burden and impact of seasonal influenza vaccination was studied for context. Results: Without workplace vaccination, an average US business (with 10,000 employees), had an estimated 18,175 absent days from COVID-19, resulting in employer lost productivity costs of $ 5.08 million. Implementing COVID-19 workplace vaccination (at 70% US Healthy People target vaccination rate) prevented an estimated 3,132 absent days, saving employers $ 876,453 in lost productivity costs and $240,633 in medical costs. It also saved employees $ 182,196 in medical costs and $198,250 in lost wages . Seasonal influenza caused around 5,333 absent days, and seasonal influenza vaccination (at 70% coverage) prevented 1,675 absent days, saving employers $ 468,394 in lost productivity and saving employees $ 27,757 in medical costs. Conclusions: COVID-19 remains a burden to US businesses. Implementing COVID-19 workplace vaccination and increasing vaccination coverage rates for COVID-19 and seasonal influenza has the potential to prevent a significant number of absent days, while providing employers and employees with cost savings from averted disease and its consequences.

An Indo-French campaign was conducted during May 2014 at Gadanki (13.5^oN, 79.2^oE), India, for investigating gravity wave (GW) coupling between the lower and middle atmospheres using a suite of experimental techniques. In this paper we are presenting the sources for those GWs which are observed at airglow layer (~87 km) using (OH) Airglow Imager during the campaign. For this purpose we have developed a background model atmosphere by combining the ERA-Interim, MSIS E 90 model and HWM 07 model data sets. Uniqueness of the present study lies in using near-real time background atmosphere data from simultaneous radiosonde and SVU Meteor Radar covering both source and propagation/ dissipation regions of GWs. We have observed 17 wave events and used GROGRAT model for reverse tracing to locate the source(s). When we searched for the sources near the terminal points or along the ray path, deep convection is found to occur but no strong wind shear. This indicates that the source for the observed GWs is deep convection. We have also simulated small scale waves that can reach mesosphere during different seasons (background conditions). GWs with periods less than 100 minutes and horizontal wavelengths less than 200 km are mostly reaching the mesospheric altitudes. Interestingly, it is found that only few GWs that are generated in the troposphere reach the mesospheric altitudes during the monsoon season, though strong sources like convection and wind shear persist throughout this season. Thus, background wind plays significant role in deciding the propagation of GWs in to upper atmosphere.

Finding a good MIMO system model also major issue in Wireless Communication system. It is facing with so many problem, one of the major problem is finding good system model in terms of capacity and transmitting antenna system. In this paper, we analyze the channel capacity of various MIMO system model with some constant SNR level and outage probability. We establish a novel idea for MIMO system models as consider as 2^N- MIMO system model and find-out change in channel capacity when different transmitting antennas with constant SNR and outage probability. The channel capacity ratio CC_R is presented here on the basis of 2^N- MIMO channel capacity model. Number of transmitted antenna presented in MIMO system is increases is well-known however paper shows change in capacity in simple form.

Several particles are not observed directly, but only through their decay products. We consider the possibility that they might be fakeons, i.e. fake particles, which mediate interactions but are not asymptotic states. A crucial role to determine the true nature of a particle is played by the imaginary parts of the one-loop radiative corrections, which are affected in nontrivial ways by the presence of fakeons in the loop. The knowledge we have today is sufficient to prove that most non directly observed particles are true physical particles. However, in the case of the Higgs boson the possibility that it might be a fakeon remains open. The issue can be resolved by means of precision measurements in existing and future accelerators.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

Seepage erosion is one of the main reasons for the local collapse or instability of embankments. To investigate the characteristics and mechanism of seepage erosion for cohesionless soils, the model tests by using an independently developed seepage erosion device and the numerical simulations based on the Discrete Element Method-Computational Fluid Dynamics (DEM-CFD) coupling model were carried out. The results show that the seepage erosion process of the cohesionless soil can be characterized by four stages: stable seepage stage, fine particles upward migration stage, sand samples boiling stage, and erosion damage stage. The skeleton structure of soil sample under seepage flow is continually changed due to the loss of fine soil particles, which results in a significant decrease in the sample strength and may ultimately lead to the failure of the sample. The results of this study can provide references and bases for the design, construction, and long-term service of embankments or earth dams under the complex seepage condition, reducing the risk of seepage erosion.

The goal of the study was to assess the farmers’ acceptance of three sustainable production strategies, namely ‘Agro-forestry’, ‘Alternative protein source’ and ‘Prolonged maternal feeding’. Data on the acceptance of these strategies were collected by a survey of dairy farmers in six EU countries (AT, BE, DK, FI, IT, UK). An extended version of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was applied by means of Structural Equation Modelling to testing various hypotheses on attitudes and intentions of dairy farmers towards these novel production strategies, as well as the influence of organic practices and collaborative behaviours along the supply chain. We found that the most preferred strategy - across all countries - was soy substitution by alternative protein sources. We also found that the intention to adopt a sustainable production strategy may derive from the influence of opinions (and behaviours) of relevant others, showing the role of interactions among farmers and other stakeholders in the adoption of innovations. Finally, the perceived usefulness of all investigated strategies is higher for organic farmers, while collaborative patterns reduce the impact of subjective norm on usefulness and overall acceptance. Our findings should encourage policy makers to consider the important role of supply chain management practices, including collaboration, to enhance the sustainability of dairy farming systems.

The Schelling model of segregation allows for a general description of residential movements in an environment modeled by a lattice. The key factor is that occupants change positions until they are surrounded by a designated minimum number of similarly labeled residents. An analogy to the Ising model has been made in previous research, primarily due the assumption of state changes being dependent upon the adjacent cell positions. This allows for concepts produced in statistical mechanics to be applied to the Schelling model. Here is presented a methodology to estimate the entropy of the model for different states of the simulation. A Monte Carlo estimate is obtained for the set of macrostates defined as the different aggregate homogeneity satisfaction values across all residents, which allows for the entropy value to be produced for each state. This produces a trace of the estimated entropy value for the states of the lattice configurations to be displayed with each iteration. The results show that the initial random placements of residents have larger entropy values than the final states of the simulation when the overall homogeneity of the residential locality is increased.

This paper reviews recent works related to applications of reinforcement learning in power system optimal control problems. Based on an extensive analysis of works in the recent literature, we attempt to better understand what is the gap between reinforcement learning methods that rely on complete or incomplete information about the model dynamics, and data-driven reinforcement learning approaches. More specifically we ask how such models change based on the application or the algorithm, what are the currently open theoretical and numerical challenges in each of the leading applications, and which reinforcement-based control strategies will rise in the following years. The reviewed research works are divided to ``model-based'' methods and ``model-free'' methods, in order to highlight the current developments and trends within each of these two groups. The optimal control problems reviewed are energy markets, grid stability and control, energy management in buildings, electrical vehicles and energy storage.

I deduce an exact and analytic Bianchi type I solution of Einstein’s field equations which generalizes the isotropic ΛCDM universe model to a corresponding model with anisotropic expansion. The main point of the article is to present the anisotropic generalization of the ΛCDM universe model in a way suitable for investigating how anisotropic expansion modifies observable properties of the ΛCDM universe model. Although such generalizations of the isotropic ΛCDM universe model have been considered earlier, they have never been presented in this form before. Several physical properties of the model are pointed out and compared with properties of special cases such as the isotropic ΛCDM universe model. The solution is then used to investigate the Hubble tension. It has recently been suggested that that the cosmic large scale anisotropy may solve the Hubble tension. I consider those earlier suggestions and find that the formulae of these papers lead to the result that the anisotropy of the cosmic expansion is too small to solve the Hubble tension. Then I investigate the problem in a new way, using the exact solution of the field equations. This gives the result that the cosmic expansion anisotropy is still too small to solve the Hubble tension in the general Bianchi type I universe with dust and LIVE (Lorentz Invariant Vacuum Energy with a constant energy density which is represented by the cosmological constant) and anisotropic expansion in all three directions – even if one neglects the constraints coming from the requirement that the anisotropy should be sufficiently small, so that it does not have any significant effect upon the results coming from the calculations of the comic nucleosynthesis during the first ten minutes of the universe. If this constraint is taken into account, the cosmic expansion anisotropy is much too small to solve the Hubble tension.

Vagueira Beach on the Central Portuguese coast, is known as one of the places in Europe most affected by coastal erosion. The area has suffered more than 156 meters of coastline retreat over the period 1958 to 2001. With the aim to evaluate the influence of local factors on coastal erosion, this paper assesses the anthropogenic and natural factors that are related with the retreat of the coastline, by adopting statistical correlation and regression analyses. Through the Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) it was observed that local factors such as annual dredging at the Aveiro Port entrance (r = 0.93), the total length of groins in the Espinho-Vagueira section (r = 0.89), and storm events (r = 0.52) are directly related to coastline retreat in the area. A multiple linear regression model was developed in which coastline retreat is explained by these same factors over the period 1980 to 2006. With a coefficient of determination of R² = 0.91, it was observed that length of groins (significant at the 1% level), dredging of the port entrance (significant at the 5% level) and precipitation (as a proxy for storm events; significant at the 10% level) are significantly correlated with coastline retreat. Hence, it is shown that anthropogenic factors are the main drivers of coastline retreat in Vagueira Beach. This study provides an innovative approach for the assessment of coastal erosion, resulting in important information that can be used for decision-making related to coastal zone management as it allows to understand in greater detail the main drivers of coastal erosion.

In this work, we develop a self-consistent physical model of bubbles in a gas solid two-phase flow. Using the Peng-Robonson state equation and a detailed specific heat ratio equation of bubbles, we obtain the kinetic equations of the bubbles on the basis of the Ergun equation, thermodynamic equations, and kinetic equations. It is found that the specific heat ratio of bubbles in such systems strongly depends on bubble pressures and temperatures, which play an important role in the characteristics of the bubbles. The theoretical studies show that with increasing height in the systems, the gas flow rate shows a downward trend. Moreover, the larger particles in the gas solid flows are, the greater the gas velocity is. The bubble sizes increase with the increasing heights of the gas solid systems, and then decrease. The bubble velocity is affected by the gas velocity and the bubble size, which gradually increase and eventually quasi-stabilize. This shows that gas and solid phases in a gas solid two-phase flow interact with each other and a self-consistent system comes into being. The theoretical results have exhibited important value as a guide for understanding the properties and effects of bubbles in gas solid two-phase flows.

This study explored factors influencing the adoption of blockchain technology in US educational settings using the UTAUT2 model. Results from 160 IT officers via an online survey and PLS-SEM analysis showed that performance expectancy and social influence significantly predict behavioral intentions towards blockchain adoption, impacting actual utilization. While some factors like effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, hedonic motivation, price value, and habit did not show significant relationships, this research underscores UTAUT2's relevance in blockchain acceptance in education. Future studies should address limitations and explore diverse stakeholder perspectives for strategic implementation approaches.

The study sought to investigate the effect of Multi-choice Goal programming in project Portfolio Analysis, using Lagos State Project Portfolio from between 2017-2021 as a study case. Specifically, the objectives examined the effectiveness of multi-choice goal programming in analyzing the project Portfolio of Lagos State Government and investigated the possible lapses in the use of Multi-choice Goal programming in analyzing the project Portfolio of Lagos State Government. Data were gathered from the State financial Statements and analyzed using Lingo-17 Software. Based on the analysis, the study discovered that the goals formulated can be optimally and minimally attained as the positive deviational and negative deviational variables depict zero. This indicates that the cost incurred on the project portfolio was absolutely minimized during the period and at the same time; Lagos State Government derived the most preferred benefits from it. The study therefore concluded that the State minimized the project costs and at the same time maximized benefits while meeting its overall objectives.

Agile methods promise to achieve high productivity and provide high-quality software. Agile software development is the most important approach that has spread through the world of software development over the past decade. Software team productivity measurement is essential in agile teams to increase the performance of software development. Due to the prevalence of agile methodologies and increasing competition of software development companies, software team productivity has become one of the crucial challenges for agile software companies and teams. Awareness of the level of team productivity can help them to achieve better estimation results on the time and cost of the projects. However, to measure software productivity, there is no definitive solution or approach whether in traditional and agile software development teams that lead to the occurrence of many problems in achieving a reliable definition of software productivity. Hence, this study aims to propose a statistical model to assess the team’s productivity in agile teams. A survey was conducted with forty software companies and measured the impact of six factors of the team on productivity in these companies. The results show that team effectiveness factors including inter-team relationship, quality conformance by the team, team vision, team leader, and requirements handled by the team had a significant impact on the team’s productivity. Moreover, the results also state that inter-team relations affect the most on software teams’ productivity. Finally, the model fit test showed that 80% of productivity depends on team effectiveness factors.

The study aims to analyze the performance criteria of the GR4J model to reproduce high water flows in the Ouémé watershed at Bonou's outlet which has been vulnerable to climate change in recent decades. The methodology focused on the use of daily climatological and hydrometric data extracted from files of National Directorate of Meteorology, and General Directorate of Water; they were supplemented by those of SIEREM/HSM dataset over the period 1961-2015. The rainfall was regionalized using Thiessen method. The performance of the GR4J model was assessed with NSE, RMSE and KGE criteria. The results indicate that the study area is marked by rainfall variabilities and detection of two breakpoints (1968 and 1987) which divide the series into three sub-periods; these discontinuities have repercussions on the streamflow. It's found that GR4J model overestimates the streamflow during the low water period and underestimates them in high water. However, the efficiency and performance criteria NSE, RMSE and KGE calculated on high water flow rates are better in calibration than in validation. The KGE values are range between 83-85% in calibration and 56-68% during validation, which gives to GR4J model the efficiency and performance to reproduce high flow rates in the study area

The continuous casting tundish is non-isothermal due to heat losses and temperature variation from the inlet stream generating relevant convection forces. This condition is commonly avoided through qualitative fluid dynamic analysis only. This work searches to establish the conditions for which non-isothermal simulations are mandatory or for which isothermal simulations are enough to accurately describe the fluid dynamics inside the tundish by quantifying the buoyant and inertial forces. The mathematical model, simulated by CFD software, considers the Navier-Stokes equations, the realizable k- model for solving the turbulence, and the Lagrangian discrete face to track the inclusion trajectories. The results show that temperature does not significantly impact the volume fraction percentages or the mean residence time results, nevertheless, bigger velocity magnitudes under non-isothermal conditions than in isothermal conditions and noticeable changes in the fluid dynamics between isothermal and non-isothermal cases in all the zones where buoyancy force dominates over inertial forces were observed. Because of the results, it is concluded that isothermal simulations can accurately describe the flow behavior in tundishes when the flow control devices control the fluid dynamic, but the simulation without control devices or with a weak fluid dynamic dependence on the control devices requires non-isothermal simulations.

For the emerging autonomous swarm technology, from the perspective of systems science and systems engineering, there must be some novel elements and methods to aggregate multiple systems into a group, which distinguish with the general components with specific functions, and we expect to provide the presentation of their existence in the swarm development processes. The inspiration of our methodology origins from the integration of swarm ontology, multi-paradigm modeling, multi-agent system, cyber-physical system, etc. Therefore, we choose the model-driven technology as a framework to acquire an approach of model representation across the multiple levels of abstraction and composition. The autonomous strategic mechanism is defined and formed in parallel with ConOps analysis and systems design, so as to effectively solve the cognitive problem of emergence caused by the nonlinear causation among individual and whole behaviors. This approach highlights to use the MBSE processes and their artifacts to embed the meso mechanism to integrate the operational and the functional, and which means to connect the macro and micro aspects in formalism and so to become a whole with its expected goals, and then to verify and validate within a L-V-C simulation environment.

The developments of confirmed daily Sars-CoV-2 infections can be modeled a posteriori in a comparatively simple and satisfactory way by means of a special exponential function: its exponential coefficient varies exponentially with time itself. This property enables the function to directly simulate the „daily case“ curve fragments observed for the first waves of the current epidemics in a number of counties and countries. Linear combinations of two or more of the functions allow for the modeling of the complete curves observed in the vast majority of all regions for which case number developments have been tabulated.

Climate variability influences plant growth. With the variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration leading to global warming, it is urgent to monitor the performance of plant ecosystems for optimal carbon sequestration. Net primary productivity (NPP) is the perfect measurement tool as it measures the net carbon flux between the atmosphere and green plants and the factors that affect it. This study applied remote sensing techniques, specifically one of the radiation use efficiency models; the CASA model (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach) to assess the spatio-temporal dy-namics of NPP in Togo from 1987 to 2022 and the climatic parameters that influence it. The annual average NPP over the 36 years of the study is 4565.31 Kg C ha⁻¹. Variability is observed over the years with extremes in 2017 (6312.26 Kg C ha⁻¹) and 1996 (3394.29 Kg C ha⁻¹). Natural formations identified as high-production areas saw their productivity increase between 2000 and 2022. The interaction between climate change and land use changes negatively influences the variation of Total Production (PT) between 2000 and 2022, while individually, these parameters positively influence the variation of NPP (58.28% and 188.63%). The correlation result is positive and higher between NPP and light use efficiency (LUE) (r² = 0.75). Actual evapotranspiration also shows a positive correlation with NPP (r² = 0.43). A positive but weak correlation is observed between NPP and precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (r² = 0.20; 0.10 respectively). Temperatures have almost no correlation with NPP (r² = 0.5). Climatic parameters as a whole under the LUE banner influence NPP more. This study helps understand ecosystem performance in the context of To-go's commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

In this note we study the binomial model applied to European, American and Bermudan type of derivatives. Our aim is to give the necessary and sufficient conditions under which we can define a fair value via replicating portfolios for any derivative using simple mathematical arguments and without using no arbitrage techniques. Giving suitable definitions we are able to define rigorously the fair value of any derivative without using concepts from probability theory or stochastic analysis therefore is suitable for students or young researchers. It will be clear in our analysis that if $e^{r \delta} \notin [d,u]$ then we can not define a fair value by any means for any derivative while if $d \leq e^{r \delta} \leq u$ we can. Therefore the definition of the fair value of a derivative is not so closely related with the absence of arbitrage. In the usual probabilistic point of view we assume that $d < e^{r \delta} < u$ in order to define the fair value but it is not clear what we can (or we can not) do in the cases where $e^{r \delta} \leq d$ or $e^{r \delta} \geq u$.