This paper is a response to the EPR paper titled: "Can quantum-mechanical description of physical reality be considered complete?", published in Physical Review in 1935. A quantum-mechanical (QM) measurement function describes a distribution of local results, while each empirical measurement process produces one result as exact as allowed by a measuring instrument calibrated to a non-local unit standard. Repeating these empirical measurements produces a Gaussian distribution of measurement results. The QM and empirical measurement result distributions can be compared. To precisely compare a QM measurement function describing a distribution of eigenvectors to a distribution of repetitive empirical measurement results, it is necessary to determine, by calibration, the precision of the eigenvectors to the same standard as the empirical results, because each eigenvector evidences uncertainty relative to a standard. When the calibration process is recognized as formal as well as empirical, QM measurement function results and metrology measurement process results are unified.

The question whether a given set of test items can be considered “identical” is often addressed in terms of the homogeneity of the test material from which said items were taken. However, for some types of matrices – in particular, for matrices consisting of minute separate particles, only some of which carry the analyte under consideration – even in the case of homogenous test material, an irreducible source of variability between test items may remain: the fundamental variability. In this paper, the concept of fundamental variability is explained, and procedures for reducing and characterizing it are described.

Validation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) products is typically based on comparisons with in-situ measurements at a few meters depth, that are mostly done at a single location and time. The difference in term of spatio-temporal resolution between the in-situ near-surface salinity and the two-dimensional satellite SSS results in a sampling mismatch uncertainty. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project has merged SSS from three satellite missions. Using an optimal interpolation, weekly and monthly SSS and their uncertainties are estimated at a 50 km spatial resolution over the global ocean. Over the 2016-2018 period the mean uncertainty on weekly CCI SSS is 0.13, whereas the standard deviation of weekly CCI minus in-situ Argo salinities is 0.24. Using high resolution SSS simulations, we estimate the expected uncertainty due to the CCI versus Argo sampling mismatch. Most of the largest spatial variability of the satellite minus Argo salinity are observed in regions with large mismatch. A quantitative validation is performed by considering the statistical distribution of the CCI minus Argo salinity normalized by the sampling and retrieval uncertainties. This quantity should follow a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation of 1, if all uncertainty contributions are properly considered. We find that 1) the sampling mismatch can explain most of the observed differences between Argo and CCI data, especially for monthly products and in dynamical regions (river plumes, fronts), 2) overall, the uncertainties are well estimated in CCI version 3, much better compared to CCI version 2. There are a few dynamical regions where discrepancies remain, and where the satellite SSS, their associated uncertainties and the sampling mismatch estimates should be further validated.

Among many research areas to which Ron Yager contributed are decision making under uncertainty (in particular, under interval and fuzzy uncertainty) and aggregation – where he proposed, analyzed, and utilized the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). The OWA algorithm itself provides only a specific type of data aggregation. However, it turns out that if we allows several OWA stages one after another, we get a scheme with a universal approximation property – moreover, a scheme which is perfectly equivalent to deep neural networks. In this sense, Ron Yager can be viewed as a (grand)father of deep learning. We also show that the existing schemes for decision making under uncertainty are also naturally interpretable in OWA terms.

The frame construction of an apartment complex that consists of multiple buildings encounters various uncertainties, owing to the complex relationships among units of work. Currently, the period of such a construction is calculated based on the number of floors of the highest building in the complex. This study quantitatively analyzes an apartment frame construction period using a queue model and evaluates the validity of the estimated period. In this regard, a methodology is proposed for analyzing the construction period by applying the concept of a customer and a server. A case study on the duration of an apartment frame construction is conducted with Korea Land and Housing Corporation, which has supplied the largest number of apartments in South Korea. It was found that the stable state of a queue system was observed when the rate of server utilization was applied to the basement and aboveground floors. However, a stable state was not reached on the ground floor. This study includes non-working days in its calculation and quantitatively analyzes uncertainty factors during construction. Therefore, the findings can be practically utilized to quantitatively plan the durations of work units in an apartment frame construction.

The article contains the results of experimental studies for a multi-opening orifice with substitute constriction factor of β = 0.5 (m = 0.25), mounted in a DN50 hydraulic measuring flume. Flow measurements were taken for a progressing turbulent flow within Reynolds numbers (Re = 4700...19500). Based on experimental data, flow characteristics as well as discharge coefficient C characteristics were determined. Relative expanded uncertainty of determining a discharge coefficient C was estimated within the changes of volume flow qv from 0.35 dm3/s to 0.68 dm3/s. The value does not exceed 1.25% within the changes of Reynolds numbers 9800 ≤ Re ≤ 19500.

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREE_opt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (N_in), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

Additive manufacturing (AM) is a promising new technology that is having a very fast growth from home workshops to high-tech cutting-edge factories. As any manufacturing technique, adequate metrology services are needed to assure the quality of items manufactured by AM. One of the most widely used instruments to measure the characteristics of surfaces manufactured with AM is the confocal microscope. In this paper, authors present a whole calibration procedure for confocal microscopes designed to be implemented preferably in workshops or industrial environments rather than in research and development departments. Because of that, it is as simple as possible. The procedure is designed without forgetting any of the key aspects that need to be taken into account and based on classical reference material standards. These standards can be easily found in industrial dimensional laboratories and easily calibrated in accredited calibration laboratories.

The experiments of Project 8 have been excellent, but the expected goals still difficult to achieve. So much so that some of the results at your fingertips were also missing. In view of this, the focus of this article is to clarify several easy confused concepts. Only in this way, we can reasonably explain the experimental data. The main points are as follows: 1. The value c of the light speed in vacuum and a particle with zero static mass, both of which do not exist in the reality. That is to say, the so-called a photon's static mass is equal to zero but has energy, which is a paradox that confuses two different definitional domains. 2. In the reality, photons are high-speed particles generated by electromagnetic radiation. They must have the characteristics of (static) mass, energy and wave, in order to describe the main body to aim at photons from different angles. 3. After any main body comes into being electromagnetic radiation, its static mass will inevitably decrease accordingly. 4. The charge-mass ratio of an electron is a physical constant, which is the ratio of its charge to the amount of matter, and is not affected by relativistic effects and electromagnetic radiation. 5. The uncertainty of moving electrons is caused by random electromagnetic radiations. Finally, it is pointed out that if the cyclotron frequency of a single electron is measured, and at the same time, its de Broglie wavelength or frequency can also be measured, then its static mass can be obtained. Even so, the expected goals are still difficult to achieve, because random electromagnetic radiations are always taking away continually the matter composition of the single electron being measured. However, this was precisely a result of the research obtained by Project 8, and had universality, which should be reflect on.

Phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations of virtual particles in high energy physics has been mathematically modeled by a third order differential equation. Aim of present theory is to unravel underlying mathematical equation capable of explaining microscopic phenomenon of vacuum fluctuations. Solution of such a differential equation after applying appropriate boundary conditions gives an acceptable wave function i.e. . Operation of energy and time operator on this wave function proves that these operators do not hold commutative property. Time energy uncertainty principle has been derived by calculating variance of energy and time for the same wave function.

Model-based design has received considerable attention in biological and chemical industries over the last two decades. However, the parameter uncertainties of first-principle models are critical in model-based design and have led to the development of robustification concepts. Various strategies were introduced to solve the robust optimization problem. Most approaches suffer from either unreasonable computational expense or low approximation accuracy. Moreover, they are not rigorous and do not consider robust optimization problems where parameter correlation and equality constraints exist. In this work, we propose a highly efficient framework for solving robust optimization problems with the so-called point estimation method (PEM). The PEM has a fair trade-off between computation expense and approximation accuracy and can be easily extended to problems of parameter correlations. From a statistical point of view, moment-based methods are used to approximate robust inequality and equality constraints. We also suggest employing the information from global sensitivity analysis to further simplify robust optimization problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework with two case studies where one is to design a heating/cooling profile for the essential part of a continuous production process and the other is to optimize the feeding profile for a fed-batch reactor of the penicillin fermentation process. The results reveal that the proposed approach can be used successfully for complex (bio)chemical problems in model-based design.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the timing of innovative investment in technology product life cycles using a compound binomial option with management flexibility. Considering the business cycles changes in the macroeconomic will affect consumer purchasing power. The focus is how to evaluate the optimal investment strategy and the project value. It was applied to different product stages (three stages including production innovation, manufacture innovation, and operation innovation) and factored to different risks to build a technology innovation strategy model. An aim of this study is the options premium of the best strategy timing for each innovation stage. Its application of the compound binomial options for the manufacture innovation will only be considered after the execution of the production innovation. The same condition is applied to the operation innovation, which will only be considered after the execution of the manufacture innovation. Then, this paper constructs the dynamic investment sequential decision model, assesses the feasibility of an investment strategy, and makes a decision on the appropriate project value and options premium for each stage under the possible change of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper investigates the product life cycle innovation investment topic by using the compound binomial options method and will provide a more flexible strategy decision compared with other trend forecast criteria.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

A simple method for the determination of caffeine in coffee grains by GC-FID is presented in the current work. The method was fully validated according to ISO 17025 requirements and European Commission regulation. The accuracy, as provided by recovery experiments was higher than 93%, and the precision, as provided by the (%)Relative standard deviation under reproducibility conditions, was lower than 5%. All independent parameters that lead in the increase of methods uncertainty were investigated. In the present work all special precautions were taken into account in order to avoid the use of an internal standard. The method was applied in real samples and possible health claims were investigated.

In order to improve the accuracy of wind tunnel test, relying on the high pressure gas source of China Aerodynamic Research and Development Center, a secondary flow standard facility based on sonic nozzle array is developed, and its pressure range is (1~6)MPa, and flow range is (0.12~5.55)kg/s. At present, most facilities use the average temperature measured by the temperature array to represent the upstream temperature of the sonic nozzle array. However, the small flow calibration test results show that, the maximum temperature difference upstream of the standard sonic nozzle array is 1.97 K, the temperature field upstream of the sonic nozzle array shows non-uniformity, so the above method cannot accurately obtain the upstream temperature. To solve this problem, each nozzle used in the standard sonic nozzle array was accurately measured by temperature sensors. And the uncertainty of the facility and the discharge coefficient of the calibrated nozzle between the two methods were compared. Results show that, compared with the discharge coefficient obtained by the tempearture sensor array of 0.9902, the accurate measurement of 0.9904 is closer to National Institute of Metrology, China(NIM) traceable result of 0.9907, and the relative uncertainty of the facility is reduced from 0.124% (k=2) to 0.120% (k=2).

In this work, a method for measuring tow angles in carbon fiber components, based on the use of a polarized camera, is analyzed from a metrological point of view. Carbon fibers alter the direction of the reflected light electrical field, so that in each point of the surface of a composite piece the angle of polarization of reflected light matches the fiber orientation. A statistical analysis of the angle of linear polarization (AoLP) in each pixel of each examined area allows to evaluate the average winding angle. An evaluation of the measurement uncertainty of the method on a cylinder obtained by a filament winding process is carried out, and the result appears adequate for the study of the distribution of angles along the surface of the piece, in order to optimize the process.

This paper introduces innovative sensitivity indices based on Cliff's Delta for global sensitivity analysis of structural reliability. These indices build on Sobol's method, using binary outcomes (success or failure), but avoid the need to calculate failure probability Pf and the associated distributional assumptions of resistance R and load F. Cliff's Delta, originally for ordinal data, evaluates the dominance of resistance over load without specific assumptions. The mathematical formulations for computing Cliff's Delta between R and F quantify structural reliability by assessing the random realizations of R > F using a double-nested-loop approach. The derived sensitivity indices, based on the squared value of Cliff's Delta​, exhibit properties analogous to those in Sobol's sensitivity analysis, including first-order, second-order, and higher-order indices. This provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating the contributions of input variables and their interactions on structural reliability. This method is particularly significant for FEM applications, where repeated simulations of R or F are computationally intensive. The double-nested-loop algorithm of Cliff's Delta maximizes the extraction of information about structural reliability from these simulations. However, the high computational demand of Cliff's Delta is a disadvantage. Future research should optimize computational demands, especially for small Pf​, where the inner loop may often be unnecessary.

In this paper, we present findings from a qualitative interview study, which highlights the difficulties and challenges with quantifying carbon emissions, and discusses how to move productively through these challenges by drawing insights from studies of deep uncertainty. Our research study focuses on the digital sector and was governed by the research question: how do practitioners researching, working or immersed in the broad area of sustainable digitisation (researchers, industry, NGOs, and policy representatives) understand and engage with quantifying carbon? Our findings show how stakeholders struggled to measure carbon emissions across complex systems, the lack of standardisation to assist with this, and how these challenges led stakeholders to call for more data to address this uncertainty. We argue that calls for more data to address this uncertainty obscure the fact that there will always be uncertainty, and that we must learn to govern from within it.

A comprehensive review of uncertainties in power systems, covering modeling, impact, and mitigation, is essential to understand and manage the challenges faced by the electric grid. Uncertainties in power systems can arise from various sources and can have significant implications for grid reliability, stability, and economic efficiency. Australia, susceptible to extreme weather such as wildfires and heavy rainfall, faces vulnerabilities in its power network assets. The decentralized distribution of population centers poses economic challenges in supplying power to remote areas, a crucial consideration for emerging technologies emphasized in this paper. In addition, the evolution of modern power grids, facilitated by deploying the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), has also brought new challenges to the system due to the risk of cyber-attacks via communication link. However, the existing literature lacks a comprehensive review and analysis of uncertainties in modern power systems, encompassing uncertainties related to weather events, cyberattacks, and asset management, as well as the advantages and limitations of various mitigation approaches. To fill this void, this review covers a broad spectrum of uncertainties considering their impacts on the power system and explores conventional robust control, and modern probabilistic and data-driven approaches for modelling and correlating the uncertainty events to the state of the grid for optimal decision making. This article also investigates the development of robust and scenario-based operations, control technologies for microgrids (MGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs), and demand-side frequency control ancillary service (D-FCAS) and reserve provision for frequency regulation to ensure a design of uncertainty-tolerance power system. This review delves into the trade-offs linked with the implementation of mitigation strategies, such as reliability, computational speed, and economic efficiency. It also explores how these strategies may influence the planning and operation of future power grids.

Early spaceborne laser altimetry mission development starts in pre-phase A design, where diverse ideas are evaluated against mission science requirements. A key challenge is predicting realistic instrument performance through forward modeling at arbitrary spatial scale. Analytical evaluations compromise accuracy for speed, while radiative transfer modeling is not applicable at global scale due to computational expense. Instead of predicting arbitrary properties of a lidar measurement, we develop a baseline theory to predict only the distribution of uncertainty specifically for the terrain elevation retrieval based on terrain slope and fractional canopy cover features through a deep neural network gaussian mixture model, also known as a mixture density network (MDN). Training data was created from differencing geocorrected GEDI L2B elevation measurements with 32 independent reference lidar datasets in the contiguous U.S. from the National Ecological Observatory Network. We trained the MDN and selected hyperparameters based on regional distribution predictive capability. On average, the relative error of equivalent standard deviation of predicted regional distributions was 15.9%, with some anomalies in accuracy due to generalization and insufficient feature diversity and correlation. As an application, we predict the percent of elevation residuals of a GEDI-like lidar within a given mission threshold from 60°S to 78.25°N, which correlate to qualitative understanding of prediction accuracy and instrument performance.

With advances in information technology, big data, mobile communications, and robotics, digital technologies are increasingly being used in factories around the world. This digital transformation is named industry 4.0. Today, industrial companies are looking at how to adopt this era and implement these technologies 4.0 while improving their performance and generating more profits. The objective of this paper is to help companies to better choose the appropriate digital technologies according to their activities using a multi-experts-multi-criteria decision-making approach under hesitant fuzzy information. The proposed model is a generic model based on Multi-Agent Systems allowing to have an idea of the parameters necessary to apply the adopted approach. The adopted approach allows a better representation of uncertainty and subjectivity of experts’ judgments. It would be of great interest, especially, when exact quantitative data are not available. A real case company example is exposed (automotive company) towards putting into practice the proposed approach.

Raman-based Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) is a valuable tool for field testing and validating heat transfer models in Borehole Heat Exchanger (BHE) and Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) applications. However, temperature uncertainty is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, a new calibration method is proposed for single-ended DTS configurations, along with a method to remove fictitious temperature drifts due to ambient air variations. The methods are implemented for a Distributed Thermal Response Test case study in an 800 m deep coaxial BHE. The results show that the calibration method and temperature drift correction are robust and give adequate results, with a temperature uncertainty of ± 0.58, 0.74, 1.1 and 1.7 K found at depths of 200, 300, 500 and 800 m, respectively. The temperature uncertainty increases non-linearly with depth and is dominated by the uncertainty in the calibrated parameters for depths larger than 200 m. The paper also offers insights into thermal features observed during the DTRT, including a heat flux inversion along the borehole depth and the slow temperature homogenization under circulation. Distributed temperature measurements and their uncertainties are useful tools in determining the strengths and drawbacks of ground heat transfer models.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

Intending to analyze the role of nuclear power in an integrated energy system, we used the IESA-Opt-N cost minimization model focusing on four key themes: system-wide impacts of nuclear power, uncertain technological costs, flexible generation, and cross-border electricity trade. We demonstrate that the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) alone should not be used to demonstrate the economic feasibility of a power generation technology. For instance, under the default techno-economic assumptions, particularly the 5% discount rate and exogenous electricity trade potentials, it is cost-optimal for the Netherlands to invest in 9.6 GWe nuclear capacity by 2050. However, its LCOE is 34 €/MWh higher than offshore wind. Moreover, we found that nuclear power investments can reduce demand for variable renewable energy sources in the short term and higher energy independence (i.e., lower imports of natural gas, biomass, and electricity) in the long term. Furthermore, investing in nuclear power can reduce the mitigation costs of the Dutch energy system by 1.6% and 6.2% in 2040 and 2050, and 25% lower national CO₂ prices by 2050. However, this cost reduction is not significant given the odds of higher nuclear financing costs and longer construction times. In addition, this study has shown that lower financing costs (e.g., EU taxonomy support) considerably reduce the relevance of nuclear cost uncertainties on its investments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the economic feasibility of national nuclear power investments can vary considerably depending on the cross-border electricity trade assumptions. Additionally, we found that lowering the cost of small modular reactors has more impact on their economic feasibility than increasing their generation flexibility. In conclusion, under the specific assumptions of this study, nuclear power can play a complementary role (in parallel to the wind and solar power) in supporting the Dutch energy transition from the sole techno-economic point of view.

The theories of quantum mechanics and relativity dramatically altered our understanding of the universe ushering in the era of modern physics. Quantum theory deals with objects probabilistically at small scales, whereas relativity deals classically with motion in space and time. We show here that the mathematical structures of quantum theory and of relativity follow together from pure thought, defined and uniquely constrained by the same elementary ``combining and sequencing'' symmetries that underlie standard arithmetic and probability. The key is uncertainty, which inevitably accompanies observation of quantity and imposes the use of pairs of numbers. The symmetries then lead directly to the use of complex \sqrt{-1} arithmetic, the standard calculus of quantum mechanics, and the Lorentz transformations of relativistic spacetime. One dimension of time and three dimensions of space are thus derived as the profound and inevitable framework of physics.

Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.

Max Born's statistical interpretation made probabilities play a major role in quantum theory. Here we show that these quantum probabilities and the classical probabilities have very different origins. While the lat- ter always result from an assumed probability measure, the first include transition probabilities with a purely algebraic origin. Moreover, the gen- eral definition of transition probability introduced here comprises not only the well-known quantum mechanical transition probabilities between pure states or wave functions, but further novel cases. A transition probability that differs from 0 and 1 manifests the typical quantum indeterminacy in a similar way as Heisenberg's and others' un- certainty relations and, furthermore, rules out deterministic states in the same way as the Bell-Kochen-Specker theorem. However, the transition probability defined here achieves a lot more beyond that: it demonstrates that the algebraic structure of the Hilbert space quantum logic dictates the precise values of certain probabilities and it provides an unexpected access to these quantum probabilities that does not rely on states or wave functions.

Soil hydraulic properties are often derived indirectly, i.e. computed from easily available soil properties with pedotransfer functions (PTFs), when those are needed for catchment, regional or continental scale applications. When predicted soil hydraulic parameters are used for the modelling of the state and flux of water in soils, uncertainty of the computed values can provide more detailed information when drawing conclusions. The aim of this study was to update the previously published European PTFs (Tóth et al., 2015, euptf v1.4.0) by providing prediction uncertainty calculation built into the transfer functions. The new set of algorithms was derived for point predictions of soil water content at saturation (0 cm matric potential head), field capacity (both -100 and -330 cm matric potential head), wilting point (-15.000 cm matric potential head), plant available water, and saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as the Mualem-van Genuchten model parameters of the moisture retention and hydraulic conductivity curve. The minimum set of input properties for the prediction is soil depth and sand, silt and clay content. The effect of including additional information like soil organic carbon content, bulk density, calcium carbonate content, pH and cation exchange capacity were extensively analysed. The PTFs were derived adopting the random forest method. The advantage of the new PTFs is that they i) provide information about prediction uncertainty, ii) are significantly more accurate than the euptfv1, iii) can be applied for more predictor variable combinations than the euptfv1, 32 instead of 5, and iv) are now also derived for the prediction of water content at -100 cm matric potential head and plant available water content.

The energy, momentum and the action associated with the time domain transition radiation fields are investigated. The results show that for a charged particle moving with speed $v$, the longitudinal momentum associated with the transition radiation is approximately equal to $E/c$ for values of $1-v/c$ smaller than about 10^-3 where $E$ is the total radiated energy and c is the speed of light in free space. The action of the transition radiation, defined as the product of the energy dissipated and the duration of the emission, increases as $1-v/c$ decreases and, for an electron, it becomes equal to $h/4\pi$ when $v=c-v_m$ where $v_m$ is the speed associated with the lowest energy state of a particle confined inside the universe and h is the Plank constant. Combining these results with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, an expression for the electronic charge based on other fundamental physical constants is derived. The best agreement between the experimentally observed electronic charge and the theoretical prediction is obtained when one assumes that the actual size of the universe is about 250 times larger than the visible universe.

This study introduces a novel method that combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with conformal prediction to revolutionize the domain of stock ticker forecasting. Our approach enhances prediction accuracy and offers dependable prediction intervals to gauge uncertainty, surpassing current GAN-based techniques in unpredictable market scenarios. We made a validation using AAPL stock data, showing the ability of our model to generate accurate forecasts and reliable assessments of prediction uncertainty. The prediction intervals generated provide investors and risk managers with a powerful tool to make informed decisions. Our approach represents a notable advancement in financial prediction as it improves the clarity and reliability of forecasts. By incorporating conformal prediction into the GAN framework, the reliability of forecasts is improved, providing a thorough evaluation of uncertainty that is crucial for successful risk management. This framework has the potential to transform the field of predictive analytics in finance. It shows a solution that balances accuracy and uncertainty quantification. The results clearly show the effectiveness of this method, paving the way for its potential application in a wide range of financial prediction scenarios.

In this paper we study a class of impulsive delayed neural networks with parameter uncertainties and reaction-diffusion terms. Using the properties of M-matrices and some inequality techniques, some sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the global exponential stability of the given system. The results obtained are presented by simple algebraic inequalities, which are certainly more concise than previous methods. Finally, the validity and usefulness of our results are illustrated by arithmetic examples.

Due to constraints in launch platform and cost, the maneuverability of gliding-guided projectiles is limited, necessitating a rational design of their trajectory schemes. To reduce the sensitivity of trajectory schemes to uncertainties while ensuring compatibility between flight schemes and guidance control systems, and fully exploiting the control capability of the projectile, a closed-loop robust trajectory planning method is proposed. Models of major uncertain factors and states deviation at the control-start point are established. Based on the NIPCE method, the stochastic dynamic model is transformed into a high-dimensional deterministic model with PCE coefficients as state variables, and the uncertainty propagation law is obtained. A PID algorithm is employed to design a tracking guidance law based on position error feedback, and open-loop and closed-loop robust trajectory planning models are established accordingly. The optimal control problem is solved by transforming it into a nonlinear programming problem using the direct shooting method. Simulation results indicate that the NIPCE method can significantly improve the computational efficiency of uncertainty propagation while ensuring accuracy. Open-loop robust planning can effectively mitigate the sensitivity of gliding trajectories to uncertainties but cannot completely eliminate terminal dispersion. Closed-loop robust planning effectively improves control effort consumption on the basis of open-loop planning.

The main challenges in oil platforms are how to define optimal setpoints and decision-making for controlling variables due to many existing dynamical production uncertainties while conceding safe operation and minimizing discharge to sea and atmosphere without killing plantwide inventory. A novel scheduling model to optimize the whole essential units of an oil platform production gathering topside and subsea variables is disclosed. A proper topside and subsea scheduling model enables and creates harmony between optimal production, supply chain, costs, and market dynamics, satisfying demands, environmental and operations constraints leading to stability. The interest of the present research lies in determining the optimal topside and subsea operational settings and decision-making, establishing maximum E&P performance and production control setpoints while predicting and manipulating reservoir lifespan and its revitalization. This objective is attained through a novel multiperiod large-scale model for the planning and operational production scheduling and model predictive control (MPC) in oil platforms complying with sustainability, profitability, platform design capacities, and offloading of oil and gas to supply chains or to pipeline exportation. The present model details heat and mass transfer, PVT, flow profiles along a planning horizon and can be used to any oil platform since comprises all the essential unit operations for oil, gas, CO₂, H₂S and water. The model maximizes the total oil production over any planning horizon. The model is versatile, and decision-making can be either linear or nonlinear but rather a MILP or LP as best choice on optimizing large-scale systems. If the model is applied with auto rescheduling on site within variable hours or minutes, it becomes a real-time optimization schedule approach. Due to its high-velocity performance and robustness, a novel multi-objective function strategy, acting as an LP generic plantwide MPC with industrial scope to maximize production while controlling the process is presented, and as an example is here used to control slug flow to avoid equipment trips and inventory instability, at the same time production is maximized. The output from the decision-making was compared to actual plant data, and the results proved compliance to the design capacity with process safety and sustainability. Comparing to official Brazil's government data for oil, the case study showed superiority to the same size platforms, like FPSOs P-75 and MV32, e.g., more than 101.5% more capacity to produce oil in beginning of campaign after first oil, and 10.5% during campaign. The present work indicates that: 1) the production of millions of barrels is being delayed or left aside; 2) not scheduling production harms the environment and diminish process safety; 3) not scheduling production can create stochastic supply chain deliveries instead of organizing it by deterministic offloading days; 4) scheduling is essential to manipulate, revitalize and monitor reservoir's pressure and content under uncertainty; 5) the oil platform can be automatic optimized by a plantwide MPC reducing human activity/dependency; 6) scheduling gives more transparency to stakeholders and contractors by forecasting business data and capability, and can design, develop or enable new businesses.

Nuclear fusion reactors are composed by several complex components whose behaviour may be not certain a priori. This uncertainty may have a significant importance in the evolution of fault transients in the machine, causing unexpected damages to its components. For this reason a suitable method for the uncertainty propagation during those transient is required. The Monte Carlo method would be the reference option, but it is, in most of the cases, not applicable due to the large amount of required simulations to be repeated. In this context the Polynomial Chaos Expansion has been considered as a valuable alternative. It allows to create a surrogate model of the original one in terms of orthogonal polynomials. Then, the uncertainty quantification is performed repeatedly calling this much simpler and faster model. Using the fast current discharge in the Divertor Tokamak Test Toroidal Field (DTT TF) coils as a reference scenario, this method has been applied: the uncertainty on the parameters of the Fast Discharge Unit (FDU) varistor disks is propagated to the simulated electrical and electro-magnetic relevant effects. Eventually two worst case scenarios have been analyzed from the thermal-hydraulic point of view with the 4C code, simulating a fast current discharge as a consequence of a coil quench. Eventually it has been demonstrated that the uncertainty on the inputs (varistor parameters) strongly propagates obtaining a wide range of possible scenarios in case of accidental transients. This result underlines the necessity to take into account and propagate all possible uncertainties in the design of a fusion reactor, according to the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach.

Alectinib hydrochloride is an anticancer medication used for the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer. Although it has been approved for medical use ten years ago, and three polymorphs of this substance were proposed based on X-ray diffraction patterns, their crystal structures remained unknown to date. The main problem was preparation of high quality single crystals due to very low solubility of the salt. Herein we report on molecular and crystal structure of form I of alectinib hydrochloride as obtained by powder X-ray diffraction data from laboratory source. The refinement revealed that the nitrogen atom of the morpholinyl ring is protonated. The chloride anion interacts with the H(N) atoms of the morpholine and benzo[b]carbazole rings to form infinite H-bonded chains.

This study employs traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) regression analysis to investigate the influence of various external factors on Bitcoin price fluctuations from January 2014 to March 2023 using a multidimensional approach. We use factors from the traditional financial market, such as economic policy uncertainty (EPU), oil prices, the NASDAQ index, and gold prices, to identify factors contributing to Bitcoin volatility. Considering the unique situation in the Bitcoin market, that is, 24-hour trading and the short duration of its existence, we incorporate the broadest possible data range to achieve alignment between Bitcoin data and other datasets. The findings of the statistical analysis indicate that EPU and the NASDAQ index promote positive fluctuations in Bitcoin volatility, whereas gold prices act as a dampener. However, we find no empirical support for the influence of energy prices on Bitcoin volatility. These results suggest that Bitcoin should not be underestimated; all stakeholders should treat the issue of Bitcoin volatility seriously, including governments, who should actively regulate the Bitcoin market, and investors, who should recognize the dangers of this volatility, making rational decisions based on individual circumstances and employing flexible trading strategies.

This paper presents a systematic approach to developing big data analytics for manufacturing process-relevant decision-making activities from the perspective of smart manufacturing. The proposed analytics consists of five integrated system components: 1) data preparation system, 2) data exploration system, 3) data visualization system, 4) data analysis system, and 5) knowledge extraction system. The functional requirements of the integrated systems are elucidated. In addition, JAVA- and spreadsheet-based systems are developed to realize the proposed integrated system components. Finally, the efficacy of the analytics is demonstrated using a case study where the goal is to determine the optimal material removal conditions of a dry electrical discharge machining operation. The analytics identified the variables (among voltage, current, pulse-off time, gas pressure, and rotational speed) that effectively maximize the material removal rate. It also identified the variables that do not contribute to the optimization process. The analytics also quantified the underlying uncertainty. In synopsis, the proposed approach results in transparent, big-data-inequality-free, and less resource-dependent data analytics, which is desirable for small and medium enterprises—the actual sites where machining is carried out.

Stray current is a relevant phenomenon in particular for DC electrified transportation systems, affecting the track and infrastructure within the right of way and other structures and installations nearby. It worsens with time and the level of protection depend on timely maintenance, besides correct design choices. The assessment of track insulation is the starting point for both stray current monitoring systems and at commissioning or upon major changes. Standardized methods (ref. EN 50122-2, or IEC 62128-2) are almost unchanged in the last 20 years, but suffer from accuracy issues and variability due to parameters and conditions not under operator’s control. A critical discussion and analysis of the sources of variability and practical constraints is proposed, followed by the evaluation of uncertainty, with the objective not only to assess the accuracy of provided results, but to foster research on innovative, more flexible and accurate, methods.

The adaptive identification method developed to evaluate the parameters of the Bouc-Wen hysteresis (BWH). The adaptive approach based on the use of adaptive observers. We synthesize adaptive identification algorithms using the second Lyapunov method. The boundedness of adaptive system processes shown in coordinate and parametric spaces. We prove exponential dissipativity of processes in an adaptive system. Estimating method proposed for signaling uncertainty in the system.

We survey the main results emerging in the rapidly developing field that considers the geometry of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. Our ideas of stability depend on variational principles – Maximum Entropy together with Least Action (and the isomorphic Least Exertion) – and this stability (invariance in time) indicates the centrality of the geometries of the systems. We explore a variety of examples of the application of thermodynamics in both macro- and micro-systems, and propose that irreversibility is an intrinsic and fundamental property of the physical realm (instead of being merely emergent). Using the concept of complex time, we examine the underlying mathematical unity of quantum mechanics, statistical mechanics, and geometrical thermodynamics. We show how the Planck and Boltzmann constants provide the fundamental quantum units for the phenomenological characteristics of the two Noether-conserved quantities controlling overall thermodynamic behaviour: respectively, energy and entropy production. We discuss the far-reaching isomorphisms (between all of complex time, temperature and the system symmetry) that always exist for Maximum Entropy systems, even as they exhibit either irreversible (dissipative, yet still dynamically stable) or reversible (including stable and static geometries) behaviours.

In this study, the dependence between Bitcoin (BTC) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of USA and China is estimated by applying latest methodology of quantile cross-spectral dependence. The findings indicate a positive return interdependence between BTC and EPU is high in short-term, and this dependence decreases as investment horizons increase from weekly to yearly. The information on above interdependence is also extracted by applying wavelet coherence analysis and the estimation results suggest that correlation between BTC and EPU is positive during short-term investment horizon. Furthermore, more diversification benefits of BTC can be obtained during USA-EPU as compared to China-EPU.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

This work assesses sea-level rise using three different models created on Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System (FOSS4GIS). Based on regional projections of Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the models were applied to a case of study on Rio Grande do Sul coast – Brazil under different sea-level rise scenarios by the end of this century. The End Point Rate for QGIS (EPR4Q), calculates a shoreline projection using End Point Rate method. The Uncertainty Bathtub Model (uBTM), analyses the sea-level rise impact by the uncertainty of sea-level projec-tions and vertical error of the Digital Elevation/Terrain Model (DEM/DTM). The Bruun Rule for Google Earth Engine Model (BRGM) predicts the shoreline position with sea-level rise, using topographic and bathymetric data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal Modelling System (SMC – Brazil), respectively. The results indicated a maximum shoreline retreat for 2100 of -502 m and -1727 m using EPR4Q and BRGM, correspondingly. The uBTM using the land-use of Mapbiomas showed a maximum of 44.57 km2 of urban area impacted by the sea-level flood. This research highlights the possibility of performing coastal management analysis in GIS environ-ment using non-commercial software.

For more than eighty years the standard interpretation (SI) has dominated quantum physics. Perspectives that have tried to challenge this domination have been remarkably unsuccessful. As a result, quantum theory (QT) has remained remarkably stagnant. The article offers a critical examination of SI and provides an explanation for its continued domination. It also uses Bohmian mechanics—a theoretical perspective advanced by American physicist David Bohm—as a case study for why alternative interpretations have failed to displace SI. The article sees the main reason for the failure to achieve much progress beyond SI in the unresolved philosophical problem of subject-object relation that continues to plague our study of physics. The article sketches a path to a possible solution and outlines a new science practice that this solution will require.

A rapid, precise, accurate and low cost method for the determination of vitamin E (α-tocopherol) in cereal products and biscuits was developed. The uncertainty was calculated for the first time and the methods were performed in different cereal products and biscuits, characterized as “superfoods”. The limits of detection and quantification were calculated. Accuracy and precision were estimated using the certified reference material FAPAS T10112QC and the determined values were in good accordance with the certified values. The health claims according to the daily reference values for vitamin E were calculated and the results proved that the majority of the samples examined showed %daily value higher than 15%.

The demonstration of compliance of rolling stock against disturbance limits for railway signaling, and in particular track circuits, is subject to a large deal of variability, caused by the diverse values of the electrical parameters of the railway line and resulting transfer functions, as well as operating conditions of rolling stock during tests. Instrumental uncertainty is evaluated with a Type B approach and shown to be much less than the experimental variability. Repeated test runs in acceleration, coasting, cruising, braking conditions are considered, deriving both max-hold (spread) and sample dispersion curves compared to the respective mean values (Type A approach to the evaluation of uncertainty). The major source of variability affecting a significant portion of the spectrum is caused by the superposed oscillations of the onboard LC filter, for which different choices of the transformation window duration are discussed. The test runs and the acquired data covered overall 1 day of tests along about 300 km of the Italian 3 kV DC railway network.

Deterministic simulations using the SWAN model were conducted along a stretch of the Tietê-Paraná waterway in the Ilha Solteira dam reservoir, São Paulo, Brazil, to assess the water waves generated by winds. Simultaneously employs a probabilistic metamodeling approach (PCE) and Sobol indices, to quantify uncertainty of the five involved physical parameters (wind velocity and direction, bottom friction (JONSWAP), whitecapping and depth-induced breaking index). In the deterministic part, Janssen’s formulation yielded the most successful and accurate estimations of wave heights. Probabilistic analysis underscored the importance of wind data and the whitecapping parameter in model calibration, with a significant influence of wind speed indicated by Sobol indices. The results not only refined the model calibration process, but also allowed the creation of contour maps for wave height and period that offer practical pre-project applications. This work advances understanding of wind wave hydrodynamics deterministically and probabilistically, with good concordance and performance indices compared to field data, despite being scarce.

In this paper, a continuous power management for a decentralized DC microgrid (DCMG) is proposed to achieve voltage regulation and power balance even under system uncertainty and voltage sensor failure. The DCMG system achieves a continuous power management through only the primary controller to reduce the computational burden of each power agent. To enhance the reliability and resilience of the DCMG system under voltage sensor failure, a DC bus voltage (DCV) sensor fault detection algorithm is proposed. In this algorithm, the DCV sensor failure is detected by comparing the measured DCV with the estimated DCV. When the power agent identifies the DCV sensor failure, it changes the operation properly according to the proposed control mode decision algorithm to maintain the stability of the DCMG system. When uncertain conditions such as the power variation of the distributed generations, sudden grid disconnection, DCV sensor failure, electricity price change, and critical battery status occur, the DCMG system is changed to transitional operation modes. These transitional operation modes are employed to transmit the power agent information to other agents without digital communication links (DCLs) and to accomplish power sharing even under such uncertain conditions. In the transitional operation modes of the DCMG system, the DCV levels are temporarily shifted to an appropriate level, enabling each power agent to detect the uncertainty conditions, and subsequently to determine its operation modes based on the DCV levels. Simulation and experimental results under different test conditions confirm the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

This work (in two parts) will review the recently developed predictive modeling methodology called “4th-BERRU-PM” and its applicability to energy systems as exemplified by an illustrative application to the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark. The acronym 4th-BERRU-PM designates the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” methodology, which yields best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the first fourth-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) of the optimally predicted posterior distribution of model results and calibrated model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, including fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses to model parameters, thus incorporating, as particular cases, the results previously predicted by the second-order predictive modeling methodology 2nd-BERRU-PM, and vastly generalizing the results produced by extant data assimilation and data adjustment procedures. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses the scopes of high-order sensitivity analysis (SA), uncertainty quantification (UQ), data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC). The application of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by means of the above-mentioned OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the neutron transport Boltzmann equation involving 21976 imprecisely known parameters, the solution of which is representative of “large-scale computations.” The model result (“response”) of interest is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. Part 1 of this work illustrates the impact of high-order sensitivities, in conjunction with parameter standard deviations of various magnitudes, on the determination of the expected value and variance of the computed response in terms of the first four moments of the distribution of the uncertain model parameters. Part 2 of this work will illustrate the capabilities of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for combining computational and experimental information, up to and including forth-order sensitivities and distributional moments, for producing best-estimate values for the predicted responses and model parameters while reducing their accompanying uncertainties.

The conformity assessment of products or a measured value with the given standards is carried out based on the global risk of producers and consumers calculation. A product may conform to specifications but be falsely rejected as non-conforming. This is about the producer's risk. If a product doesn't meet the requirements but is falsely accepted as conforming, that poses a risk to the consumer. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which yields only a single numerical value for the global risk of producers and consumers, is naturally extended, and utilized for assessing risk in measurement models with linear regression. The outcomes of the two-dimensional extension, along a moderate scale, are the parabolas with an opening upwards. Risk surfaces were obtained through three-dimensional extension over the area limited by the moderate scale and guard band axes. Four models with different ranges of tolerance intervals were used to test this innovative method of risk assessment in linear regression. The corresponding standard measurement uncertainties are determined by applying a simplified measurement model with the use of comprehensive data on the measurement performance and by determining measurement uncertainty derived from consideration of the functional relationship obtained by linear regression analysis. Models that utilize information from linear regression analysis to determine measurement uncertainty are biased towards risks at the edges of the moderate scale. Testing the model's performances with metrics related to the confusion matrix, such as the F1 score, further substantiated this assertion. The diagnostic odds ratio has been proven to be extremely effective in identifying the curve along the guard band axis, along which the global risks of producers and consumers are at their lowest.

The uncertainty in the secondary path of an Active Noise Control (ANC) headphone affects the waterbed effect and stability of the feedback system. This study focuses on the uncertainty of the secondary path when real users wear headphones, and proposes a new uncertainty constraint based on the measured results of the secondary path transfer function under different wearing conditions of dummy head and limited subjects. This constraint and a cascaded second-order infinite impulse response filter with fixed coefficients are used to formulate a control strategic function, which is optimized by the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer (IGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimal controller with better noise reduction performance. The proposed method and simulation model are validated based on the experimental test results. The results demonstrate that the safety factor and waterbed suppressing factor contained in the proposed uncertainty constraint ensures more stable noise reduction and effective suppression of the waterbed effect for new subjects without a priori data.

This study rigorously investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the Tunisian stock market volatility. The investigation spans from January 2020 to December 2022, employing a GJR-GARCH model, bias-corrected wavelet analysis, and an ARDL approach. Specific variables related to health measures and government interventions are incorporated. The findings highlight that confirmed and death cases contribute significantly to the escalation in TUNINDEX volatility. Interestingly, certain indices related to government interventions exhibit no substantial impact on volatility, indicating a weak resilience of the Tunisian stock market amidst the challenges posed by COVID-19. However, the application of the bias-corrected wavelet analysis yields more nuanced outcomes in terms of correlations of volatility to the same metrics. Notably, the study recognizes the potential influence of uncertainties linked to the duration of lockdowns on financial market volatility. The positive and long-term impact on volatility of the US Equity Market uncertainty and VIX is evident through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), whereas economic policy uncertainty shows no significant impact. This indicates a potential vulnerability of the Tunisian stock market to future shocks, emphasizing the need for government efforts to instill investor confidence. This comprehensive exploration contributes to our understanding of the dynamics between the pandemic’ metrics, government interventions, and financial market stability. Our findings provide valuable insights for implementing risk management strategies amid the COVID‐19 crisis.

We show that one of the two important uncertainty principles derived by Maccone and Pati \textit{[Phys. Rev. Lett., 2014]} can be derived for arbitrary maps defined on subsets of $\mathcal{L}^p$ spaces for $1< p<\infty$. Our main tool is the Clarkson inequalities. We also derive a nonlinear uncertainty principle for weak parallelogram spaces and Type-p Banach spaces.

The introduction of ChatGPT in academia has raised significant concerns, particularly regarding issues like plagiarism and the ethical use of generative text for academic purposes. Existing literature has predominantly focused on ChatGPT adoption, leaving a notable gap in addressing the strategies users employ to mitigate these emerging challenges. To bridge this gap, this research utilizes the Uncertainty Reduction Theory (URT) to formulate user strategies for reducing uncertainty. These strategies include both interactive and passive approaches. Concurrently, the study identifies key sources of uncertainty, which include concerns related to transparency, information accuracy, and privacy. Additionally, it introduces the concepts of seeking clarification and consulting peer feedback as mediating roles to facilitate reduced uncertainty. We tested these hypotheses with a sample of Indonesian users (N = 566) using structural equation modeling via Smart-PLS 4.0 software. The results confirm that interactive Uncertainty Reduction Strategies (URS) are more effective in reducing uncertainty when using ChatGPT compared to passive URS. Transparency concerns, information accuracy, and privacy concerns are identified as factors that increase the level of uncertainty. In contrast, consulting peer feedback is the most effective strategy for reducing uncertainty compared to seeking clarification at the individual-system level. Insights from the mediating effects confirm that consulting peer feedback significantly mediates uncertainty sources to reduce uncertainty. The study discusses various strategies for the ethical use of ChatGPT by users in the educational context and contributes significantly to theoretical development.

We study the work fluctuations in ergotropic heat engines, namely two-strokes quantum Otto engines where the work stroke is designed to extract the ergotropy (the maximum amount of work by a cyclic unitary evolution) from a couple of quantum systems at canonical equilibrium at two different temperatures, whereas the heat stroke thermalizes back the systems to their respective reservoirs. We provide an exaustive study for the case of two qutrits whose energy levels are equally spaced at two different frequencies by deriving the complete work statistics. By varying the values of temperatures and frequencies, only three kinds of optimal unitary strokes are found: the swap operator U1, an idle swap U2 (where one of the qutrits is regarded as an effective qubit), and a non trivial permutation of energy eigenstates U3, which indeed corresponds to the composition of the two previous unitaries, namely U3 = U2U1. While U1 and U2 are Hermitian (and hence involutions), U3 is not. This point has an impact on the thermodynamic uncertainty relations (TURs) which bound the signal-to-noise ratio of the extracted work in terms of the entropy production. In fact, we show that all TURs derived from a strong detailed fluctuation theorem are violated by the transformation U3.

This article provides an overview of multi-fidelity modeling trends. Fidelity in modeling refers to the level of detail and accuracy provided by a predictive model or simulation. Generally, models with higher fidelity deliver more precise results but demand greater computational resources. Multi-fidelity models integrate high-fidelity and low-fidelity models to obtain fast yet accurate predictions. Their growing popularity is due to their ability to approximate high-fidelity models with high accuracy and low computational cost. This work classifies publications in multi-fidelity modeling based on various factors, including application, surrogate selection, fidelity difference, fidelity combination method, field of application, and year of publication. The study also examines the techniques used to combine fidelities, focusing on multi-fidelity surrogate models. To accurately evaluate the advantages of utilizing multi-fidelity models, it is necessary to report the achieved time savings. This paper includes guidelines for authors to present their multi-fidelity-related savings in a standard, succinct, yet thorough way to guide future users. According to a select group of publications that provided sufficient information, multi-fidelity models achieved savings of up to 90% while maintaining the desired level of accuracy. However, the savings achieved through multi-fidelity models depend highly on the problem.

The battery energy storage systems (BESS) are most promising solution for increasing efficiency and flexibility of distribution networks (DNs) with significant penetration level of photovoltaic (PV) systems. There are various issues related to the optimal operation of DNs with integrated PV sys-tems and BESS that need to be addressed to maximize DN performance. This paper deals with the day-ahead optimal active-reactive power dispatching in unbalanced DNs with integrated sin-gle-phase PV generation and BESSs. The objectives are the minimization of cost for electricity, en-ergy losses in the DN and voltage unbalance at three-phase load buses by optimal managing of active and reactive power flows. To solve this highly constrained nonlinear optimization problem, a hybrid particle swarm optimization with sigmoid-based acceleration coefficients (PSOS) and cha-otic gravitational search algorithm (CGSA), called PSOS-CGSA algorithm, is proposed. A scenario based approach encompassing the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method with the simultaneous backward reduction algorithm is used for the probabilistic assessment of the uncertainty of PV generation and power of loads. The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is evaluated through the series test cases in a modified IEEE 13-bus feeder.

We consider a class of density-driven flow problems. We are particularly interested in the problem of the salinization of coastal aquifers. We consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem with uncertain porosity, permeability, and recharge parameters as a test case. The reason for the presence of uncertainties is the lack of knowledge, inaccurate measurements, and inability to measure parameters at each spatial or time location. This problem is nonlinear and time-dependent. The solution is the salt mass fraction, which is uncertain and changes in time. Uncertainties in porosity, permeability, recharge, and mass fraction are modeled using random fields. This work investigates the applicability of the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for such problems. The MLMC method can reduce the total computational and storage costs. Moreover, the MLMC method runs multiple scenarios on different spatial and time meshes and then estimates the mean value of the mass fraction. The parallelization is performed in both the physical space and stochastic space. To solve every deterministic scenario, we run the parallel multigrid solver ug4 in a black-box fashion. We use the solution obtained from the quasi-Monte Carlo method as a reference solution.

The Impact Chain framework for risk assessment has proven to be a robust and effective It is very useful to set up the conceptual framework associated to a given risk and allows accommodating naturally the different components that shape that However, the operationalization of the impact chain may not be straightforward, in particular due to the inherent uncertainties associated to the selected indicators and the assigned In this paper, we introduce an extension to the Impact Chain framework that allows to consider uncertainties in the different components of the risk In the framework of the UNCHAIN project, a web-based tool has been developed to ease the task of implementing that The tool has been applied to a case study on the loss of tourist attractiveness due to heat stress conditions on the Balearic island, Spain, to illustrate how uncertainties in different components of the impact chain can affect the robustness of the final risk Also, the tool provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the final risk to each component, which can be used to guide risk mitigation Finally, a proposal for the validation of the risk assessment is presented.

Media coverage of Lyme disease (LD) has led to an increase in consultations for presumed LD in Europe. However, LD is confirmed in only 10-20% of patients, with a significant number remaining in a diagnostic dead-end. The objective of our study was to understand the genesis of the LD hypothesis in care pathways. In 2019, 30 patients from a prospective cohort consulting in the infectious diseases department at University Hospital in Marseille for presumed LD were recruited for semi-structured interviews. The inclusion criteria were: suffering from subjective symptoms for 6 months, no clinical or paraclinical argument suggesting current LD. The patients’ medical trajectories were collected using a biographical approach. A majority of participants were convinced they had LD despite the lack of medical evidence and the scepticism of their referring GP. The diagnosis of Lyme disease was primarily triggered by identification with clinical stories circulating in the media. Most of participants had conducted the diagnostic investigation themselves. Diagnostic wandering in the diagnostic process suggests a failure of modern medicine to propose solutions for medically unexplained symptoms. Clinicians should systematically explore patients’ etiologic representations in a patient-centred care approach.

Most quantum gravity theories endow space-time with a discreet nature by space quantization on the order of Planck length (lp ). This discreetness could be demonstrated by confirmation of Lorentz invariance violations (LIV) manifested at length scales proportional to lp. In this paper, space-time line elements compatible with the uncertainty principle are calculated for a homogeneous, isotropic expanding Universe represented by the Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker solution to General Relativity (FLRW or FRW metric). To achieve this, the covariant geometric uncertainty principle (GeUP) is applied as a constraint over geodesics in FRW geometries. A generic expression for the quadratic proper space-time line element is derived, proportional to Planck length-squared and dependent on two contributions. The first is associated to the energy-time uncertainty, and the second depends on the Hubble function. The results are in agreement with space-time quantization on the expected length orders, according to quantum gravity theories and experimental constraints on LIV.

Knowledge-based approaches are useful alternatives to predict the Failure Probability (FP) coping with the insufficient data, process integrity, and complexity issue in manufacturing systems. This study proposes a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) approach as proactive knowledge-based technique to estimate the FP based maintenance planning with subjective information from domain experts. However, the classical-FTA still suffers from uncertainty and static structure limitations which poses a substantial dilemma in predicting FP. To deal with the uncertainty issues, a Fuzzy-FTA (FFTA) model was developed by statistical analysing the effective attributes such as experts' trait impacts, scales variation and, assorted membership and defuzzification functions. Besides, a Bayesian Network (BN) theory was conducted to overcome the static limitation of classical-FTA. The results of FFTA model revealed that the changes in decision attributes were not statistically significant on FP variation while BN model considering conditional rules to reflect the dynamic relationship between events had more impact on predicting FP. After all, the integrated FFTA-BN model was used in the optimization model to find the optimal maintenance intervals according to estimated FP and the total expected cost. As a practical example, the proposed model was implemented in a semi-automatic filling system in an automotive production line. The outcomes could be useful for upgrading the availability and safety of complex equipment in manufacturing systems.

What is the function of cognition? On one influential account, cognition evolved to co-ordinate behaviour with environmental change or complexity (Godfrey-Smith 1996). Liberal interpretations of this view ascribe cognition to an extraordinarily broad set of biological systems – even bacteria, which modulate their activity in response to salient external cues, would seem to qualify as cognitive agents. However, equating cognition with adaptive flexibility per se glosses over important distinctions in the way biological organisms deal with environmental complexity. Drawing on contemporary advances in theoretical biology and computational neuroscience, we cash these distinctions out in terms of different kinds of generative models, and the representational and uncertainty-resolving capacities they afford. This analysis leads us to propose a formal criterion for delineating cognition from other, more pervasive forms of adaptive plasticity. On this view, biological cognition is rooted in a particular kind of functional organisation; namely, that which enables the agent to detach from the present and engage in counterfactual (active) inference.

We propose a methodology for the quantification of model risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and CVA, where the uncertain or unmodelled parameter is often the correlation between rates and credit. We take the rates model to be Hull-White (normal) and the credit model to be Black-Karasinski (lognormal). We show how highly accurate analytic pricing formulae, hitherto unpublished, can be derived for CDS and extended to address instruments with defaultable Libor flows which may in addition be capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of a contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive explicit expressions showing how to good accuracy the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s) can be captured in analytic formulae which are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled) parameter.

We present a generalized state-space model formulation particularly motivated by an online scheduling perspective. Through these proposed generalizations, we enable a natural way to handle routinely encountered disturbances and a rich set of corresponding counter-decisions. Thereby, greatly simplifying and extending the possible application of mathematical programming based online scheduling solutions to diverse application settings.

Abstract: Objective: Chronic low back pain (CLBP) is a significant global concern. Its prevalence is increasing, and current management strategies demonstrate at best, moderate effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to explore the concepts of hope, uncertainty and how they both influence emotion regulation because these concepts are extremely prevalent for patients and clinicians during CLBP consultations. Methods: A soccial constructivist meta-ethnographic is a highly interpretative type of qualitative review that generates new theory, enabling a valuable insight to this unique area. A framework was followed; its iterative analytical process involves multiple search strategies, exploring how studies relate, generating ideas and developing a substantive theory. Results: This review represents the first worked example of a theory generating review process. One model was created (see figure 5) that focuses on how the individual with CLBP regulate their emotions and considers factors that feed into the process and result from the process. The outcome of the model produced either adaptative or maladaptive emotional regulation strategies (ERS). Conclusions: Hope and uncertainty are key concepts that are interlinked and play a vital role on health outcomes of people with CLBP. Research is required to explore how the model can be operationalised in clinical practice.

Green economy has emerged as a significant pillar of sustainable development in the current global context, and the unpredictability of economic policy has progressively garnered the interest of businesses and government officials as one of the obstacles they must confront. This paper examines how uncertainty in the green economy impacts the green economy's efficacy. The research concentrates on how changes in a particular region can result in geospatial diffusion (spatial spillover), which is a form of spatial spillover wherein the uncertainty of the green economy can impact its efficacy. This paper examines the policy formulation and current state of the green economy across various regions, as well as the diffusion of economic policy uncertainty across geographical areas and the subsequent impact on the green economy's status quo. There is a negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and green economy efficacy, according to research. There is a spatial spillover effect between economic policy uncertainty and the efficacy of the green economy. Regional variations exist in the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the efficacy of the green economy. The findings indicate that the implementation of AI has a more substantial beneficial effect on carbon emissions. An increase in carbon dioxide emissions poses a growing challenge for the industrial sector in its pursuit of carbon neutrality.

This article addresses the challenge of simulating rainstorm waterlogging in urban-scale areas where reliable drainage pipe network data is often lacking. Despite existing methods attempting to tackle this issue, there remains a gap in effectiveness. We present a novel approach, the Modified Equivalent Infiltration (MEI) method, building upon the foundation of the Equivalent Infiltration (EI) method. The study focuses on the outer ring area of Shanghai, utilizing data from the "In-Fa" typhoon period for simulation and comparison. Our findings reveal that the MEI method, requiring the same data inputs as the EI method, surpasses its predecessor in both principle and simulation results. Additionally, the MEI method demonstrates robustness in handling rainstorm waterlogging scenarios.

The issue of equipment layout in multi-floor satellites consists of two primary parts: allocating the equipment to the satellite's layers and placing the equipment in each layer individually. In reviewing the past literature in this field, firstly, the issue of assigning equipment to layers is observed in a few articles and next in the layout part, the non-overlapping constraint has always been a challenge, particularly for components that do not have a circular cross-section. In addition to presenting a heuristic method for allocating equipment to different layers of the satellite, this article presents a robust flexible programming model (RFPM) for the placement of equipment at different layers, taking into account the inherent flexibility of the equipment in placement and the subject of uncertainty. This model is based on the existing uncertainty between the distances of cuboid equipment which has not been addressed in any of the previous research, and by comparing its outputs with cases from past studies, it demonstrates a significantly higher efficiency in placing the equipment and meeting the limit of non-overlapping constraints between the equipment. Finally, it would be possible to reduce the design time in the conceptual and preparatory stages, as well as the satellite's overall size, while still satisfying other constraints like stability and thermal limitations, moments of inertia and centre of gravity.

In the paper we suggest an implementation of the non-commutative logic and apply its operators for decision-making in the group of autonomous agents. The suggested operators extend the uninorm and absorbing norm aggregators and use an additional asymmetry parameter that defines the “level of non-commutativity”. The value of this parameter is specified using the perception bias of humans measured in the experiments. The suggested operators and decision-making method are illustrated by simulated behavior of mobile robots in the group.

Public trust in science was tested and relied on during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which has shaped global events since the WHO declaration in March 11, 2020. Public trust has been impacted through the government recommendations and mandates informed by public health guidance, including non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions. The free-flow of ideas and in-formation so essential to the functioning of science has faced unprecedented challenge from widespread censorship in both the media and in scientific journals. This has created a poisoned environment for the building of trust between science and society. Scientific norms and ac-countability must be restored in order to rebuild the vital relationship between scientists and the public they serve.

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are numerically studied. We first give a review for the formulation of the generalized uncertainty relations in the stochastic variational method (SVM), following the work by two of the present authors [Phys.\ Lett.\ A\textbf{382}, 1472 (2018)]. In this approach, the origin of the finite minimum value of uncertainty is attributed to the non-differentiable (virtual) trajectory of a quantum particle and then both of the Kennard and Robertson-Schr\"{o}dinger inequalities in quantum mechanics are reproduced. The same non-differentiable trajectory is applied to the motion of fluid elements in the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation or the Navier-Stokes-Korteweg equation. By introducing the standard deviations of position and momentum for fluid elements, the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are derived. These are applicable even to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and then the field-theoretical uncertainty relation is reproduced. We further investigate numerically the derived relations and find that the behaviors of the uncertainty relations for liquid and gas are qualitatively different. This suggests that the uncertainty relations in hydrodynamics are used as a criterion to classify liquid and gas in fluid.

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable called “treatment” consisting of such elements as social distance, washing hands, wearing a face mask, and others. The decision maker selects a level of treatment that maximizes her/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person’s psychological attitude towards the macro determined (announced) probabilities affects the optimum results of the model. Such changes create a micro-macro dynamic interaction which is briefly outlined. A short discussion of the model’s behavioral implications for health policy is also given.

In the field of pavement engineering, the determination of the mechanical characteristics is one of the essential process for reliable material design and highway sustainability. Early determination of mechanical characteristics of pavement is highly essential for road and highway construction and maintenance. Tensile strength (TS), compressive strength (CS) and flexural strength (FS) of roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) are very crucial characteristics as they are necessitated for many data from mixture proportions as input variables. In this research, the classification-based regression models named Random Forest (RF), M5rule model tree (M5rule), M5prime model tree (M5p) and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) are developed for simulation of the mechanical characteristics of RCCP. A comprehensive and reliable dataset comprising 621, 326 and 290 data records for CS, TS and FS experimental cases extracted from several open sources over the literature. The mechanical properties are developed based on influential inputs combination that processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The applied PCA method as feature selection is specified that volumetric/weighted content forms of experimental variables (e.g., coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, supplementary cementitious materials, water and binder) and specimens’ age are the most effective inputs to generate the better performances. Several statistical metrics are measured to evaluate proposed classification-based regression models. RF model revealed an optimistic classification capacity of the CS, TS and FS prediction of the RCCP in comparison with the CHAID, M5rule, and M5p models. The research is extended for the results verification using Monte-carlo model for the uncertainty and sensitivity of variables importance analysis. Overall, the proposed methodology indicated a reliable soft computing model that can be implemented for the material engineering construction and design.

Flood frequency analysis at large scales, essential for the development of flood risk maps, is hindered by the uncertainty in outputs of process-based hydrological models and the scarcity of gauge flow data. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for regional flood frequency analysis at high resolution across North America. Our model leverages annual maximum flow data from ≈20000 gauged stations and a dataset of 130 static catchment-specific covariates to predict extreme flows at all catchments over the continent as well as their associated statistical uncertainty. Additionally, a modification is made to the data layer of the BHM to include daily gauge discharge data when available, which improves the precision of the discharge level estimates. We validated the model using a hold-out approach and found that its predictive power is very good for the GEV distribution location and scale parameters and improveable for the shape parameter, which is notoriously hard to estimate. The resulting discharge return levels yield satisfying agreement when compared with available design peak discharge from various government sources. Assessment of the covariates’ contributions to the model also informs on the most relevant underlying factors influencing flood-inducing peak flows. The key covariates in our model are temperature-related bioindicators, the catchment drainage area and geographical location.

We estimate general public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement in Spain (n=1000) and the UK (n=984) using data from a cross-sectional survey via Qualtrics panels in March-April 2021. We use a double bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation approach to elicit the individuals’ WTP. We investigate the effect of uncertainty on the success of policies aiming at achieving soil protection. In addition, to understand the heterogeneity in individuals’ WTP for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement we model individuals’ WTP through individual’s awareness and attitudes toward agricultural soil quality protection and the environment, trust in institutions; risk and time preferences; pro-social behavior and socio-demographics in Spain and the UK. We found that there is significant public support for agricultural soil quality protection and improvement in Spain and the UK. We also found that the support does not vary significantly under uncertainty of success of policies aiming at achieving soil protection. However the individual’s reasons for supporting agricultural soil quality protection and improvement are found to depend on the level of uncertainty and country. Hence, promoting public support for soil protection needs to be tailored according to the level of general public’s perceived uncertainty and geographic location.

The adoption of Industry 4.0 technology is essential for achieving energy efficiency, a critical aspect of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) no. 12 aimed at addressing climate change. Understanding the impact of Sustainable Attitudes, Digital Trust, and Uncertainty Avoidance is crucial in the decision-making process regarding the implementation of Industry 4.0 technology. The slow adoption of Industry 4.0 technology is attributed to non-technological factors or people, while the need to achieve energy efficiency targets necessitates examining the influence of Sustainable Attitudes and Digital Trust as supporting variables, along with Uncertainty Avoidance, on technology adoption. The study employed a quantitative explanatory research approach to investigate the relationships and impacts of variables. It centered on employees of Schneider Electric Indonesia, a global Industry 4.0 technology provider, with a sample of 189 employees selected through random sampling, incorporating a 5% margin error from Slovin formula. The analysis involved the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with AMOS version 26. Industry 4.0 technology is essential for fostering innovation and business expansion, leading to a sustainable environment by offering principles, guidance, and energy-efficient technologies for companies. The involvement of Sustainable Attitude, moderated by Uncertainty Avoidance, is vital in reaching energy efficiency goals through Industry 4.0 implementation.

This work continues the review and illustrative application to energy systems of the “Fourth-Order Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Uncertainties Predictive Modeling” (4th-BERRU-PM) methodology. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology uses the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principle to incorporate fourth-order experimental and computational information, in-cluding fourth (and higher) order sensitivities of computed model responses with respect to model parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology yields the fourth-order MaxEnt posterior distribution of experimentally measured and computed model responses and parameters, in the combined phase-space of model responses and parameters. The 4th-BERRU-PM methodology encompasses fourth-order sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ), which were reviewed in the accompanying work (Part 1), as well as fourth-order data assimilation (DA) and model calibration (MC) capabilities, which will be reviewed and illustrated in this work (Part 2). The applicability of the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology to energy systems is illustrated by using the Polyethylene-Reflected Plutonium (acronym: PERP) OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which is modeled using the linear neutron transport Boltzmann equation, involving 21976 im-precisely known parameters. This benchmark is representative of “large-scale computations” such as those involved in the modeling of energy systems. The result (“response”) of interest for the PERP benchmark is the leakage of neutrons through the outer surface of this spherical benchmark, which can be computed numerically and measured experimentally. The impact of the high-order sensitivities of the response with respect to the PERP model parameters is quantified for “high-precision” parameters (2% standard deviations) and “medium-precision” parameters (5% standard deviations). Analyzing the best-estimate results with reduced uncertainties for the 1st- through 4th-order moments (mean values, covariance, skewness, and kurtosis) produced by the 4th-BERRU-PM methodology for the PERP benchmark indicates that, even for systems mod-eled by linear equations (e.g., the PERP benchmark), retaining only first-order sensitivities is insufficient for reliable predictive modeling (including SA, UQ, DA, MC). At least second-order sensitivities should be retained in order to obtain reliable predictions.

In the century and a half since Maxwell first conjured his “finite being” which Lord Kelvin subsequently dubbed a “daemon”, researchers have explored the connections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics, entropy, and information theory. In recent years various Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations (TURs) have been derived to inform upon the relationship between the entropy production and the precision possible in thermodynamic machines and processes. In this paper the recently derived TURs are applied to the hypothetical thermodynamic economy as described by Parker [1]. The TURs define the lower bound on the total entropy production of the economy. Changes in this entropy production rate has consequences on the stability of the economic system and plays a central role in the business cycle. This new perspective has important implications for policy makers, researchers, and other economic actors.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology is increasingly prevalent in the quantification of environmental status in the building sector, following new legislative frameworks. Countries need to quantify and assess their environmental impacts as a previous base for regulation and decision making. In this context, standardised national data sets are being developed, based on consensus with manufacturers: sectoral Environmental Product Declarations. This study focuses on assessing these EPDs with the aim of providing relevant information for global decision-making, focusing on consistency and pointing out shortcomings. An assessment has been carried out both at national level, considering all sectoral EPDs and declared products, and at international level, with three common building materials (brick, steel and concrete). The results highlight the lack of traceability in the development and assessment of uncertainty, resulting in substantial discrepancies in reported impacts, especially in the later stages of the life cycle (up to 90% difference). Meanwhile, impacts such as Global Warming Potential or total renewable and non-renewable primary energy use show homogeneous values in the cradle-to-gate stages with differences generally less than 10%. The analysis of sectoral EPDs should be a design guide with environmental sustainability criteria, as the last section of this study attempts to focus on.

Earliest critical context of the pandemic, preceding the first real epidemiological wave of contagion in Bulgaria, was examined in a socio-affective perspective. A retrospective and agnostic analytical approach was adopted. Our goal was to identify traits and trends that explain public health support (PHS) of Bulgarians during the first two months of the declared state of emergency. We investigated a set of variables with a unified method within an international scientific network, named International Collaboration on Social &amp; Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (ICSMP) in April and May 2020. Conspiracy Theories beliefs were a significant predictor of lower PHS. Psychological Well-being was significantly associated with Physical Contact and Anti-Corona Policy Support. Physical Contact was significantly predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, higher Collective Narcissism, Open-mindedness, higher Trait Self-Control, Moral Identity, Risk Perception, and Psychological Well-Being. Physical Hygiene compliance was predicted by less Conspiracy Theories beliefs, Collective Narcissism, Morality-as-Cooperation, Moral Identity, and Psychological Well-Being. Results revealed two polar trends of support and non-support of public health policies. The contribution of this study is in providing evidence for affective polarization and phenomenology of (non)precarity during the outbreak of the pandemic.

Quantum gravity theories rely on a minimal measurable length for their formulations, which clashes with the classical formulation of the uncertainty principle and with Lorentz invariance from general relativity. These incompatibilities led to the development of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) from string theories and its various modifications. GUP and covariant formulations of the uncertainty principle are discussed, together with implications for space-time quantization.

We study the connection between the phase and the amplitude of the wave function and the conditions under which this relationship exists. For this we use model of particle in a box. We have shown that the amplitude can be calculated from the phase and vice versa if the log Analytical uncertainty relations are satisfied.

Methods to handle uncertainty in economic evaluation have gained much attention in the literature and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is the most widely used method to summarize and present uncertainty associated with program costs and effects in cost-effectiveness analysis. Some researchers have emphasized the limitations of the CEAC for informing decision and policy makers as the CEAC is insensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects in the North-East and South-West quadrants of the cost-effective plane (CEP). Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the CEAC does not incorporate risk-aversion in valuing uncertain costs and effects. In the present article we show that the cost-effectiveness affordability curve (CEAFC) captures both dimensions of the joint distribution of incremental costs and effects on the CEP and is therefore sensitive to radial shifts of the joint distribution on the CEP. Furthermore, the CEAFC also informs about the budget impact of a new intervention as it estimates the joint probability an intervention is both affordable and cost-effective. Moreover, we show that the cost-effectiveness risk-aversion curve (CERAC) allows to incorporate risk-aversion into the analysis and can therefore be used to inform decision-makers who are risk-averse. We use data from a published cost-effectiveness model of palbociclib in addition to letrozole versus letrozole alone for the treatment of oestrogen-receptor positive, HER-2 negative, advanced breast cancer to demonstrate the differences between CEAC, CEAFC and CERAC and show how these can jointly be used to inform decision and policy makers.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of socio-technical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. Furthermore, insights are visualized in a roadmap to coordinate action among the actors involved. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a business model aiming at ensuring stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendation for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

Predictive simulation of concurrent debris flow using only pre-disaster information has proven to be difficult as a result of problems in predicting the location of debris-flow initiation (i.e., slope failure). However, because catchment topography has concave characteristics, with all channels in a catchment joining each other as they flow downstream, it is possible to predict damage to downstream area using relatively inaccurate initiation points. Based on this, this paper presents methodologies employing debris-flow initiation points generated randomly using statistical slope failure prediction. A many-case simulation across numerous initiation points was performed to quantify the effect of slope-failure location in terms of deviations in the predicted water level and terrain deformation. It was found that the relative standard deviation diminished as the points approached the downstream area, indicating a location-based predictability effect.

A quantum time-dependent spectrum analysis, or simply, quantum spectral analysis (QSA) is presented in this work, and it’s based on Schrödinger’s equation. In the classical world, it is named frequency in time (FIT), which is used here as a complement of the traditional frequency-dependent spectral analysis based on Fourier theory. Besides, FIT is a metric which assesses the impact of the flanks of a signal on its frequency spectrum - not taken into account by Fourier theory and let alone in real time. Even more, and unlike all derived tools from Fourier Theory (i.e., continuous, discrete, fast, short-time, fractional and quantum Fourier Transform, as well as, Gabor) FIT has the following advantages, among others: a) compact support with excellent energy output treatment, b) low computational cost, O(N) for signals and O(N2) for images, c) it does not have phase uncertainties (i.e., indeterminate phase for a magnitude = 0) as in the case of Discrete and Fast Fourier Transform (DFT, FFT, respectively). Finally, we can apply QSA to a quantum signal, that is, to a qubit stream in order to analyze it spectrally.

In this paper, we relate Poisson’s summation formula to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. They both express Fourier dualities within the space of tempered distributions and these dualities are furthermore the inverses of one another. While Poisson’s summation formula expresses a duality between discretization and periodization, Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle expresses a duality between regularization and localization. We define regularization and localization on generalized functions and show that the Fourier transform of regular functions are local functions and, vice versa, the Fourier transform of local functions are regular functions.

Since the beginning, humans advanced their civilization by making better tools to improve their lives. Tools and products were designed for better living considering manufacturing issues, cost and time as predominant criteria. It has become clear that not considering environment and society, both at local/global levels, has now become a major impediment affecting living conditions on a large portion of the Earth and in many societies. Design methodologies should lead to creative solutions with consideration to engineering and economics for practicality but also to environmental and social constraints for sustainability. We propose a comprehensive design methodology based on multidisciplinary design to include the knowledge of humanities, environmentalists, science and engineering, and allowing for experts’ inputs from these areas to provide a holistic approach to engineering design . For example, experts in humanities are expected to interact with stakeholders to evaluate their value systems to provide guidance for the design. The methodology that we synthesize is new and combines (i) Societal level impacts at all scales, (ii) Environmental impacts and (iii) Engineering design with economic impacts, including uncertainty considerations. The proposed design methodology is called Social-Environmental-Economical-Engineering Framework (SEEEF). It can utilize concepts and tools such as Circular Design, Doughnut Economics, design based on environmental life cycle analysis, among others. SEEEF is quantity based and provides steps for evaluating any project or product in an objective manner and will help train engineers in design for sustainability. It also provides non-engineers with a significant role in design to increase their understanding of the hard constraints of engineering. Ultimately, SEEEF allows society to take an informed decision considering short/long term and local/global impacts of the design and the pertinent uncertainties.

This note is a part of my efforts for getting rid of nonlocality from quantum mechanics (QM). Quantum nonlocality is two faced Janus, one face is apparent quantum mechanical nonlocality (assigned with projection postulate), another face is nonlocality of Bell's model with the hidden variables. This paper is directed against the latter. The main casualty of Bell's model is that it contradicts to the Heinsenberg's uncertainty and Bohr's complementarity principles. The aim of this note is to point to the physical seed of the aforementioned principles. This is the {\it quantum postulate}: the existence of indivisible quantum of action given by the Planck constant. Bell's model by contradicting to the basic principles of QM implies rejection of this postulate. Thus, it contradicts not only to the QM-formalism, but also to the fundamental feature of the quantum world that was initially discovered by Planck.

In this paper, we will revisit the derivation of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. We will see how the Heisenberg principle collapses at the Planck scale by introducing a minor modification. The beauty of our suggested modification is that it does not change the main equations in quantum mechanics; it only gives them a Planck scale limit where uncertainty collapses. We suspect that Einstein could have been right after all, when he stated, ``God does not throw dice." His now-famous saying was an expression of his skepticism towards the concept that quantum randomness could be the ruling force, even at the deepest levels of reality. Here we will explore the quantum realm with a fresh perspective, by re-deriving the Heisenberg principle in relation to the Planck scale. We will show how this idea also leads to an upper boundary on uncertainty, in addition to the lower boundary. These upper and lower boundaries are identical for the Planck mass particle; in fact, they are zero, and this highlights the truly unique nature of the Planck mass particle. Further, there may be a close connection between light and the Planck mass particle: In our model, the standard relativistic energy momentum relation also seems to apply to light, while in modern physics light generally stands outside the standard relativistic momentum energy relation. We will also suggest a new way to look at elementary particles, where mass and time are closely related, consistent with some of the recent work in experimental physics. Our model leads to a new time operator that does not appear to be in conflict with the Pauli objection. This indicates that both mass and momentum come in quanta, which are perfectly correlated to an internal Compton `clock' frequency in elementary particles.

According to the current understanding, the recently observed accelerated expansion of the universe is caused by the dark or the vacuum energy. Attempts to calculate the magnitude of this energy using the standard model of particle physics led to values which are 59 – 120 orders of magnitude larger than the experimentally estimated one. Even though the expanding space has positive internal energy, in a flat universe it is completely balanced by the negative energy of gravitational field making the net energy equal to zero. However, the current physical theories may breakdown for times less than or on the order of Planck time and one cannot assume that the above assertion concerning the balance of two energies is valid also in this time scale. In this note it is assumed that this balance of the two energies during the creation of new space as the universe expands takes place only for times larger than the Planck time. If this assumption is correct, the net energy of the newly created space remains positive for times on the order of Planck time and the positive vacuum energy has to be burrowed from empty space before it is being balanced by gravity. This can happen only within the restrictions of the time-energy uncertainty principle. In this note it is shown that such considerations lead to a vacuum energy density of about 0.3 Nanojoules per cubic meter which has to be compared with the measured value of 0.6 Nanojoules per cubic meter.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

Skid steer mobile robots are widely used in indoor and outdoor applications. However, accurate trajectory tracking control for this kind of robot is quite challenging due to the uncertainties arising from the complex behavior of frictional force, external disturbances, and undergoing fluctuations in the instantaneous center of rotation (ICR) during turning maneuvers. The uncertainties directly disturb velocities and make it impossible for the robot to track the command velocities, thus making the SSMR unable to follow the reference path. This paper proposes a nonsingular terminal sliding mode control (NTSMC) based on backstepping for a 4-wheel skid steer mobile robot to cope with the aforementioned challenges. The strategy seeks to mitigate the impact of external disturbances and model uncertainties by developing an adaptive law to estimate the integrated lumped outcome. Then, the finite time stability of the closed-loop system is proven using Lyapunov’s theory. The designed NTSMC input is continuous and has no noticeable chattering problem. It has also been noted from the analysis that the proposed control strategy is strongly robust against disturbance and modeling uncertainties. The proposed control scheme demonstrates effective trajectory tracking performance in the presence of disturbance and modeling uncertainties through simulations.

Smart Transformer (ST)-based Meshed Hybrid AC/DC Microgrids (MHM) are a feasible alternative to increase the performance of conventional microgrids (MG) and to increase the penetration of Distributed Energy Resource (DER) at the same time, active and reactive power dispatch on the system. Despite this, MHMs present challenges in managing resources under uncertainties and controlling electronic converters associated with the ST and DER, making it complex to achieve optimal system performance. In this paper, a Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DDDRO) for Day-Ahead Operation Planning of an ST-based MHM considering the reactive power dispatch of the DER that minimizes network losses, voltage deviations, and operation cost simultaneously, considering uncertainties of Photovoltaic Generators (PVG) and demand, is proposed. The Column and Constraint Generation (C&amp;CG) algorithm and Duality-Free Decomposition (DFD) method are adopted. Besides, the original mixed-integer non-linear planning problem is converted into a Mixed-Integer (MI) Second-Order Cone Programming (SOCP) problem through second-order cone relaxation and positive octagonal constraint method. Simulation experiments and results with a connected MHM system demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed model. Finally, we observe the effect of the meshed structure of MG and the positive impact of integrating the ST to form MHM, taking advantage of the degrees of freedom of this multi-stage converter for optimal energy management under uncertain conditions.

Previous research has already examined the relationship between Future Anxiety, a construct recently introduced in Italy, and mental health in young adults, although possible mediating variables in this relationship have so far never been investigated. The present study attempts to fill this gap by exploring the incidence of Future Anxiety on psychological distress in a group of 302 young Italian adults (18 - 30 years; M = 21.9; SD = 2.6), presenting and evaluating the simultaneous mediating effect of Intolerance of Uncertainty and Non-Pathological Worry.Findings highlighted how Future Anxiety had a positive and significant direct effect on Stress and Depression, but not on Anxiety. In the three serial mediation models proposed, Intolerance of Uncertainty and Non-Pathological Worry mediated the relationship between Future Anxiety and mental health outcomes. The results also confirmed the hypothesized serial mediation effect by highlighting how young adults with greater Future Anxiety experienced more Intolerance of Uncertainty, which positively affected Non-Pathological Worry levels and, in turn, exacerbated psychological distress. Finally, results indicated that female participants experienced more Stress, Anxiety, and Depression in relation to Future Anxiety compared to males. Starting from the review of main references on this subject, the results discussed provide new insights for understanding youth psychological distress. Finally, practical implications for the design of supportive interventions for this study’s target group are proposed.

In the full load operating range, wind turbines typically use pitch control to maintain rotor speed and output power at their rated values to guarantee the whole system’s safety. Blade pitch actuators are subject to physical limitations and safety requirements, which imposes strict constraints on pitch angle’s amplitude and rate of change. These constraints will bring windup problem to the integral part of the pitch controller. It leads to deterioration of the pitch control system’s performance or even the instability problem, especially for large-scale turbines operating in extreme uncertain wind conditions or suffering from cyber attacks. This paper designs an anti-windup robust pitch angle control strategy to deal with pitch rate constraint issue to enhance the security of control system. First, to facilitate controller design, a filtered tracking error technique is employed to transform the nonaffine form into an affine one. Subsequently, a feedback robust controller based on UDE is developed to handle the model’s uncertainty and external disturbances. To address the issue of integral saturation in the pitch system and guarantee its safety, an elliptical bounded constraint is integrated into the designed UDE strategy. This bounded UDE controller can improve the stability of power generation quality, reduces the mechanical loads on components and enhance the whole system’s safety. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme is verified on the Wind Turbine Blockset platform in Matlab/Simulink. It can achieve better performance than the traditional method.