In his Cynefin classification of system behaviours, Snowden (2007), posits that his Simple (Clear ) and even Complicated system categories are sufficiently understandable to be amenable to the traditional methods of system analysis and modelling. Here, relationships between entities in the system are clear and unambiguous and they behave predictably. So, we can build mathematical “models” to describe how the system is expected to function in different situations. Leaving aside his fourth category, Chaotic, as too hard for the moment, this paper focusses on the third category, Complex systems. Yaneer Bar-Yam [1998] defined "complex systems" as systems that "have multiple interacting components, whose collective behaviour cannot be simply inferred from the behaviour of components." So, the traditional system modelling approach of decomposition into components and attempting to build up a picture of system performance from individual pieces, alone, is no longer appropriate for this class. The problem is that most of the methods we currently employ, and particularly the methods that attempt to make the case that these systems are safe, (such as Fault trees, FMEA. and Root Cause Analysis), rely on this decomposition into components and attempt to make the parts more reliable individually. Even the more systemic approaches, such as Reason’s (1990) Swiss Cheese Model, and Leveson’s System Theoretic Analysis (STPA) (2004), encourage adding layers of protection, barriers, strengthened control loops and better safety critical systems, in the hope that they are making the systems safer. But without a valid model to test the effectiveness of these add-ons, we cannot be sure that they will not have an opposite effect, of making the systems even more complex, unreliable and unpredictable. For complex systems, the careful gathering and documentation of system components and their relationships is still a necessary first step, but we need an additional capacity to model these complex systems to test out and prove they work safely and successfully in the real world. (not just draw fixed component relationships as system “models” (wiring diagrams)) In the last 10 years, an original approach developed by Hollnagel, (2012), to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from and independent of component details), has now been developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, such as MBSE( Goldberg (1994)), and can pull it all together in a dynamic system model from which analysts can discern how it really works in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. The paper describes how this methodology developed and how it is currently used to model real situations, to analyse incidents and anticipate events.

In an increasingly complex world there is a real, urgent need for methodologies to enable engineers to model complex sociotechnical systems, as these now seem to describe the majority of systems in use today. This is of course exacerbated by the increasing involvement and augmentation with “black box” AI contributions. Hollnagel produced a methodology, (FRAM) which did allow the analyst in-sights into these systems’ behaviour, but the model-based system engineering applications demand numbers and a quantitative ap-proach. In the last 10 years, this original approach developed to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from agent or component details), has been further developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, and can pull it all together into dynamic models, (as opposed to static, fixed System Theoretic Process Accimaps), from which analysts can discern how they really work in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. This paper describes how the FRAM methodology has now been extended to provide these extra, essential attributes. It also describes its implementation using an open-source software, freely available for use and verification on the GitHub site.

Process mining offers significant services in the development of digital threads and digital twin applications for healthcare. One of the sub-emerging case studies is the use of patients’ location data in process mining analyses. While the streamlining of published works is focused on introducing process discovery algorithms, there is a necessity to address challenges beyond that. Literature analysis indicates that explainability, reasoning, and characterizing the root causes of process drifts in healthcare processes is an important but overlooked challenge. In addition, incorporating domain-specific knowledge into process discovery could be a significant contribution to process mining literature. To address this, we present the DIAG approach that consists of a meta-model and an algorithm that enables diagnosing in process mining through an ontology-driven approach. With DIAG, we modeled the healthcare semantics in a process mining application and diagnosed the causes of drifts in patients’ pathways. We performed an experiment in a hospital living lab to examine the effectiveness of the DIAG approach.

To understand forest dynamics under today’s changing environmental conditions, it is important to analyze the state of forests at large scales. Forest inventories are not available for all regions, so it is important to use other additional sources of information, e.g. remote sensing observations. Increasingly, remotely sensed data based on optical instruments and airborne LIDAR are becoming widely available for forests. There is great potential in analyzing these measurements and gaining an understanding of forests state. In this work, we combine the new generation radiative transfer model mScope with the individual-based forest model FORMIND to generate reflectance spectra for forests. Combining the two models allows us to account for species diversity at different height layers in the forest. We compare the generated reflectances for forest stands in Finland, in the region of North Karelia, with Sentinel-2 measurements. We investigate which level of forest representation gives the best results. For the majority of the forest stands, we generated good reflectances with all levels forest representation compared to the measured reflectance. Good correlations were also found for the vegetation indices (especially NDVI with R²=0.62). This work provides a forward modelling tool for relating forest reflectance to forest characteristics. With this tool it is possible to generate a large set of forest stands with corresponding reflectances. This opens the possibility to understand how reflectance is related to succession and different forest conditions.

The complexity of modern power grids, exacerbated by integrating diverse energy sources, espe-cially inverter-based resources (IBRs), presents a significant challenge to grid operation and plan-ning since linear models fail to capture the intricate IBR dynamics. This study employs the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method to bridge the gap between theoretical un-derstanding and practical implementation in power system analysis. It introduces the novel Volterra-based Nonlinearity Index (VNI) to examine system-level nonlinearity comprehensively. The distinction of dynamics into first-order linearizable terms, second-order nonlinear dynamics, and third-order noise elucidates the intricacy of power systems. The findings demonstrate a fundamental shift in system dynamics as power sources transit to IBRs, revealing system-level nonlinearity compared to module-level nonlinearity in conventional syn-chronous generators. The VNI quantifies nonlinear-to-linear relationships, enriching our comprehension of power system behavior and offering a versatile tool for distinguishing between different nonlinearities and visualizing their distinct patterns through the proposed VIN profile.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

The average age of in-service bridges has increased in recent years in the United States. To address this issue, structural health monitoring and damage identification approaches can be employed to prioritize maintenance/replacement of aging bridges. Among the damage identification and operational health monitoring approaches, finite element (FE) model updating methods can offer a solution to evaluate the mechanics-based characteristics of bridges. However, in a real-world setting, unidentifiability and mutual dependency between model parameters, modeling errors, especially due to boundary conditions, as well as ill-conditioning of updating algorithms can pose challenges to the application of FE model updating methods. To address these challenges, this study presents a two-step FE model updating approach. In the first step, modal-based model updating is used to estimate linear model parameters mainly related to the stiffness of boundary conditions and material properties. In the second step, in order to refine parameter estimation accounting for nonlinear response behavior of the bridge, a time-domain model updating is carried out. In this step, boundary conditions are fixed at their final estimates using modal-based model updating. To prevent the convergence of updating algorithm to local solutions, the initial estimates for nonlinear material properties are selected based on their corresponding final estimates in the modal-based model updating. To validate the applicability of the two-step FE model updating approach, a series of forced-vibration experiments are designed and carried out on a pair of decommissioned and deteriorated prestressed bridge I-girders. After carrying out the two-step FE model updating, the final estimates of concrete compressive strength are shown to provide reasonable assessment of the damage extent in the girders.

Coal combustion in thermal power plants releases ash. Ash is reported to cause different adverse health hazards in humans and other organisms. Owing to the presence of radionuclides, it is also considered as a potential radiation hazard. In this study, based on the surface radiation measurements and relevant ancillary data, expected radiation risk zones were identified with regard to the human population residing near the Thermal Power Plant. With population density as the risk determining criteria, about 20% of the study area was at ‘High’ risk and another 20% of the study area was at ‘Low’ risk zone. The remaining 60% was under medium risk zone. Based on the findings remedial measures which may be adopted have been suggested.

Stenting is a common method for treating atherosclerosis. A metal or polymer stent is deployed to open the stenosed artery or vein. After the stent is deployed, the blood flow dynamics influence the mechanics by compressing and expanding the structure. If the stent does not respond properly to the resulting stress, vascular wall injury or re-stenosis can occur. In this work, Discrete Multiphysics is used to study the mechanical deformation of the coronary stent and its relationship with the blood flow dynamics. The major parameters responsible for deforming the stent are sort in terms of dimensionless numbers and a relationship between the elastic forces in the stent and pressure forces in the fluid is established. The blood flow and the stiffness of the stent material contribute significantly to the stent deformation and affect the rate of deformation. The stress distribution in the stent is not uniform with the higher stresses occurring at the nodes of the structure.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models (PBPK) are mechanistical tools generally employed in the pharmaceutical industry and environmental health risk assessment. These models are recognised by regulatory authorities for predicting organ concentration-time profile, pharmacokinetic and daily intake dose of xenobiotics. Extension of PBPK models to capture sensitive populations like pediatric, geriatric, pregnant females, fetus etc. and diseased population like renal impairment, liver cirrhosis etc. is a must. However, the current modelling practice and existing models are not mature enough to confidently predict the risk in these populations. A multidisciplinary collaboration between clinicians, experimental and modeler scientist is vital to improve the physiology, and calculation of biochemical parameters for integrating the knowledge and refining existing PBPK models. Specific PBPK covering compartments like cerebrospinal fluid, and hippocampus are required to gain mechanistic understanding about xenobiotic disposition in these sub-parts. The PBPK model assists in building quantitative adverse outcome pathways (qAOPs) for several endpoints like developmental neurotoxicity (DNT), hepatotoxicity and cardiotoxicity. Machine learning algorithms can predict physicochemical parameters required to develop in-silico models where experimental data is unavailable. Integrating machine learning with PBPK carries the potential to revolutionize the field of drug discovery and development and environmental risk. Overall, this review tried to summarize the recent developments in the in-silico models, building qAOPs, use of machine learning for improving existing models along with a regulatory perspective. This review can act as a guide for toxicologists who wish to build their careers in kinetic modeling.

Due to their increased surface area, extent of swelling and active substance loading capacity and flexibility, nanogels made from natural and synthetic polymers have gained significant interest in the scientific and industrial areas. Especially, customized design and implementation of non-toxic, biocompatible, and biodegradable micro/nano carriers makes their usage very feasible for a range of biomedical applications, including drug delivery, tissue engineering, and bioimaging. The design and application methodologies of nanogels have been outlined in this review. Additionally, the most recent advancements in nanogel biomedical applications have been discussed, with a particular emphasis on applications for the delivery of drugs and biomolecules.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

Financial markets require a great deal of decision making from the investors and market makers. One metric that can help ease the process of decision making is investment risk which can be measured in two parts; systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk. Clear understanding of the volatilities in each risk component can be a powerful signal in recognizing the right assets to maximize the investment returns. In this paper, we focus on the idiosyncratic volatility values and pre-calculate the idiosyncratic volatility values for 31,198 members of NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq markets for the trades occurring between January 1963 and December 2019. Utilizing a subset of dataset, limited to Nasdaq100 index, we consider the application of machine learning techniques in predicting the idiosyncratic volatility values using the raw trade data to explore a data extension option for the future market trade records that have not yet occurred. We offer a deep learning based regression model and compare it with traditional tree-based methods on a small subset of our per-calculated idiosyncratic volatility dataset. Our analytical results show that the performance of the deep learning techniques is much more robust in comparison to that of the traditional tree-based baselines.

The production of public goods is a necessary condition for the survival of the species but it comes at the expense of individual growth. In a prototype bacterial colony, we model the role of quorum sensing as a resource redistribution mechanism. Two types of bacterial colonies are analyzed, one made up of a single strain and one made up of two different strains. Based on a recent series of experimental data present in the literature, we analyze two types of strains with different extinction times: strains that consume available resources very quickly, therefore becoming extinct quickly, and strains that consume resources slowly and die due to aging. We show that the proposed quorum sensing model describes the main experimental result, namely that coexistence favors the survival of both strains. Furthermore, the production of public goods is maximized when both types of individuals have the maximum proliferation output. Finally, we highlight the role played by so-called dormant cells in the duration of survival time. These cells are of particular interest, because their ability to counteract different types of stress (e.g. the use of antibiotics) still constitutes a challenge.

In this work, a hybrid component Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) approach for industrial sensor systems is established and analyzed, to provide a hybrid schema that combines the advantages and eliminates the drawbacks of both model-based and data-driven methods of diagnosis. Moreover, it shines the light on a new utilization of Random Forest (RF) together with model-based diagnosis, beyond its ordinary data-driven application. RF is trained and hyperparameter tuned using three-fold cross validation over a random grid of parameters using random search, to finally generate diagnostic graphs as the dynamic, data-driven part of this system. This is followed by translating those graphs into model-based rules in the form of if-else statements, SQL queries or semantic queries such as SPARQL, in order to feed the dynamic rules into a structured model essential for further diagnosis. The RF hyperparameters are consistently updated online using the newly generated sensor data to maintain the dynamicity and accuracy of the generated graphs and rules thereafter. The architecture of the proposed method is demonstrated in a comprehensive manner, and the dynamic rules extraction phase is applied using a case study on condition monitoring of a hydraulic test rig using time-series multivariate sensor readings.

In this work, A hybrid component Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) approach for industrial sensor systems is established and analyzed, to provide a hybrid schema that combines the advantages and eliminates the drawbacks of both model-based and data-driven methods of diagnosis. Moreover, spotting the light on a new utilization of Random Forest (RF) together with model-based diagnosis, beyond its ordinary data-driven application. RF is trained and hyperparameter tuned using 3-fold cross-validation over a random grid of parameters using random search, to finally generate diagnostic graphs as the dynamic, data-driven part of this system. Followed by translating those graphs into model-based rules in the form of if-else statements, SQL queries or semantic queries such as SPARQL, in order to feed the dynamic rules into a structured model essential for further diagnosis. The RF hyperparameters are consistently updated online using the newly generated sensor data, in order to maintain the dynamicity and accuracy of the generated graphs and rules thereafter. The architecture of the proposed method is demonstrated in a comprehensive manner, as well as the dynamic rules extraction phase is applied using a case study on condition monitoring of a hydraulic test rig using time series multivariate sensor readings.

Decision making as a result of system dynamics analysis requires, in practice, a straightforward and systematic modelling capability as well as a high-level of customisation and flexibility to adapt to situations and environments that may vary very much from each other. While in general terms a completely generic approach could be not as effective as ad-hoc solutions, the proper application of modern technology may facilitate agile strategies as a result of a smart combination of qualitative and quantitative aspects. In order to address such a complexity, we propose a knowledge-based approach that integrates the systematic computation of heterogeneous criteria with open semantics. The holistic understanding of the framework is described by a reference architecture and the proof-of-concept prototype developed can support high-level system analysis, as well as it suitable within a number of applications contexts - i.e. as a research/educational tool, communication framework, gamification and participatory modelling. Additionally, the knowledge-based philosophy, developed upon Semantic Web technology, increases the capability in terms of holistic knowledge building and re-use via interoperability. Last but not least, the framework is designed to constantly evolve in the next future, for instance by incorporating more advanced AI-powered features.

List-only entity linking is the task of mapping ambiguous mentions in texts to target entities in a group of entity lists. Different from traditional entity linking task, which leverages rich semantic relatedness in knowledge bases to improve linking accuracy, list-only entity linking can merely take advantage of co-occurrences information in entity lists. State-of-the-art work utilizes co-occurrences information to enrich entity descriptions, which are further used to calculate local compatibility between mentions and entities to determine results. Nonetheless, entity coherence is also deemed to play an important part in entity linking, which is yet currently neglected. In this work, in addition to local compatibility, we take into account global coherence among entities. Specifically, we propose to harness co-occurrences in entity lists for mining both explicit and implicit entity relations. The relations are then integrated into an entity graph, on which Personalized PageRank is incorporated to compute entity coherence. The final results are derived by combining local mention-entity similarity and global entity coherence. The experimental studies validate the superiority of our method. Our proposal not only improves the performance of list-only entity linking, but also opens up the bridge between list-only entity linking and conventional entity linking solutions.

Background. We created agent-based model for short- and longterm forecasting of COVID-19 and for evaluation how the actions of the regulator affected the human and material resources of the healthcare system. Methods. The model was implemented in the AnyLogic software. It includes two state charts – social network and disease transmission. The COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-ESFT, version 2.0) was used to determine healthcare resources needed. Results. Satisfactory results were obtained with long-term (up to 50 days) forecasting in the case of a monotonous change in total cases curve. However, if periods of relative stability are accompanied by sudden outbreaks, relatively satisfactory results were obtained with short-term forecasting, up to 10 days. Simulation of various scenarios showed that the most important place for the spread of infection are families. Wherein the maximum number of cases of COVID-19 is observed in the age group of 26-59 years. Due to a set of measures taken by government agencies, the number of cases in Karaganda city was 3.2 times less than was predicted in “no intervention” scenario. Economic effect is estimated at 40 %. Conclusion. Performed model is an attempt to consider as much as possible the peculiarities of the socio-demographic situation in the country. In the future, we will be prepared to some extent for challenges like those we have experienced in the past three years.

The deployment of Electro-Mechanical Actuators plays an important role towards the adoption of the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) philosophy. On the other hand, a seamless substitution of EMAs in place of more traditional hydraulic solutions is still set back due to the shortage of real-life and reliability data regarding their failure modes. One way to work around this problem is providing a capillary EMA Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) system, capable of recognizing failures before they actually undermine the ability of the safety-critical system to perform its functions. The authors have developed a model-based prognostic framework for PMSM based EMAs leveraging a metaheuristic algorithm: Evolutionary (Differential Evolution (DE)) and swarm intelligence (particle swarm (PSO), grey wolf (GWO)) methods are considered. Several failures (dry friction, backlash, short circuit, eccentricity and proportional gain) are simulated thanks to a Reference Model, acting as a Numerical Test Bench, then detected and identified thanks to the envisioned prognostic method, which leverages a low fidelity Monitoring Model. The employed algorithms showed good results and prove that this strategy could be executed in pre-flight checks or during the flight at specific time intervals, with positive impacts on system safety and availability.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents in time and space. These models allow users to simulate the complex interactions between individual agents and the landscapes they inhabit and are increasingly used in epidemiology to understand complex phenomena and make predictions. However, as the complexity of the simulated systems increases, notably when disease control interventions are considered, model flexibility and processing speed can become limiting. Here we introduce SamPy, an open-source Python library for stochastic agent-based modeling of epidemics. SamPy is a modular toolkit for model development, providing adaptable modules that capture host movement, disease dynamics, and disease control interventions. Memory optimization and design provide high computational efficiency allowing modelling of large, spatially-explicit populations of agents over extensive geographical areas. In this article, we demonstrate the high flexibility and processing speed of this new library. The version of SamPy considered in this paper is available at https://github.com/sampy-project/sampy-paper .

Many physiotherapy treatments begin with a diagnosis process. The patient describes symptoms, upon which the physiotherapist decides which tests to perform until a final diagnosis is reached. The relationships between the anatomical components are too complex to keep in mind and the possible actions are abundant. A trainee physiotherapist with little experience naively applies multiple tests to reach the root cause of the symptoms, which is a highly inefficient process. This work proposes to assist students in this challenge by presenting three main contributions: (1) A compilation of the neuromuscular system as components of a system in a Model-Based Diagnosis problem; (2) The PhysIt is an AI-based tool that enables an interactive visualization and diagnosis to assist trainee physiotherapists; and (3) An empirical evaluation that comprehends performance analysis and a user study. The performance analysis is based on evaluation of simulated cases and common scenarios taken from anatomy exams. The user study evaluates the efficacy of the system to assist students in the beginning of the clinical studies. The results show that our system significantly decreases the number of candidate diagnoses, without discarding the correct diagnosis, and that students in their clinical studies find PhysIt helpful in the diagnosis process.

Model-based approaches form the basis of the majority of damage detection and localization studies; however, built-in online detection technique can offer an alternative for future structural health monitoring technologies. Thus, in this paper, we present a dynamic localization algorithm for damage localization in functionally graded plates. The method depends on the creation of a grid matrix that contains the dynamic response of the structure over time. Subsequently, an optimization process is carried out via a linear equation representing the information contained within the grid to achieve accurate localization of damage. Due to the inherent sparsity of the localization nature, the FISTA algorithm has been employed as a problem solver. The approach is tested in the case of the functionally graded plate under clamped free boundary conditions. Several, damage scenarios were investigated for the case of damage signals on and off the grid. The results show that the proposed approach is capable of accurately predicting damage position and can be suitable for use in low size data systems.

Over the years, machine learning has emerged as a tool for automated translation and has been studied relentlessly for decades. RBMT, SMT, and NMT models have been used to achieve machine translation and the results have drastically improved from when research in this field first began. Although a few general-purpose translators such as Google Translate or Microsoft Translator have accurate translations compared to that of a human translator, many pieces of text containing highly technical terms or homonyms are often mistranslated completely. When considering the necessity and importance of translating technical patents from different domains, accuracy in translation is not something that can be compromised. This motivates the need to improve the performance of machine translation further. The scope of this paper covers three open-source machine translation models for the purpose of patent documentation translation from English to Japanese, evaluates their performance on patent data, and proposes a methodology that enabled us to improve one of the model’s BLEU score by 41.22%, achieving a BLEU score of 46.18.

The three-dimensional Ising model on the m$\times$n$\times$l cubic lattice with the screw boundary condition along the ${\bf X}$ direction and the periodic boundary conditions along both ${\bf Y}$ and ${\bf Z}$ directions is exactly solved by using the $2^{mn}$-dimensional representation of the rotation group in $2mn$-dimensions, similar to the Kaufman's spinor approach in two dimensions. The exact partition function is obtained from two sets of $2^{mn-1}$ eigenvalues of the $2^{mn}$-dimensional transfer matrix {\bf V} corresponding to the even and odd eigenvectors, respectively. Such the eigenvalues are determined by the angles of the 2mn-dimensional rotation associated with {\bf V}.

Previously, we described the initial use of Flipped Team‐Based learning (FTBL) defined as TBL approach combined with flipped classroom learning methodology, in which students previewed online lectures and applied their knowledge in different in-class activities. The purpose of the present study is to review the progress within this approach and to investigate how constant changes in team allocation can affect student’s perception regarding this modified FTBL approach. Although students showed reluctance initially to get out of their ‘comfort zone’, our findings show that learners perceived the adoption of the continued random allocation, and became accustomed to this learning approach, which finally assisted them to enhance their team-work skills and classroom performance, to develop their reflective capabilities as well as improving their rapport building skills, learning and academic performance. Learners also believed that this learning strategy that creates critical incidents can simulate their future work environment as they might be expected to work in unfamiliar situations. Therefore, the present study indicated strong support for the modified FTBL method and was seen to work exceptionally well, despite some minor problems that students can experience working in a team and/or with different teammates in every session.

This paper presents an approach to the application of the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and Model-Based Systems Architecting (MBSA) principles to develop a Model-Based Pattern Language (MBPL). It takes too long for systems engineers and architects to develop a new system from scratch, particularly new space-based systems derived from the existing space systems architectures. A pattern language is a holistic view of reusable logical model artifacts; many are interdisciplinary and introductory, if at all. The results are mostly a combination of the application-specific logical solution, which further results in the best possible overall solution. The main benefit of the pattern language is reducing the time and validation required to generate a new space-based system architecture; this approach will develop top-level requirements in the initial phase of the system development. The rationale of the methodology proposed by the paper is as follows, collect, and decompose published literature and other open-source information available on space system architectures and system models; develop SysML models for systems, subsystems, products, assembly, subassembly level, and mission-specific requirements using CAMEO SysML software. Arrange these patterns to develop a functional ontology and construct a logical architecture pattern library. This approach created, updated, and managed SysML pattern language, which evaluated the expedited new model construction. Again, our objective is to develop a logical pattern language using public domain information and evaluate patterns by constructing a new space mission concept—for example, planetary surface habitat.

The dynamic beam equations provide an analytical model and a generic solution for continuous systems. The constants for amplitudes and frequencies are given by the boundary conditions, which are here considered looped, in order to represent a closed element, by topological closure. This type of model is applied to the representation of a semicircular canal. This approach addresses the deformability of this anatomical element, both in Lagrangian solid parts (bone, membranes, intermediate materials) and in fluids (Eulerian pressure waves). The model is proposed for both physiological representation and pathology modeling. The latter is represented by a passive or retroactive singularity. An original analytical approach is thus developed for each segment, representing physiological modes – nodes and bellies - and possible disturbances. The damping entropy is also the subject of a special segmented treatment, to take account of fluid-solid interactions, providing a coherent model. The result is a simplified but robust model that both reproduces the vibro-acoustic modes of the semicircular canal and anticipates the effects of a singular pathology, such as a third window or neuritis. Mathematically, this model opens the way to structural analytical models of the inner ear, and to possible dynamic couplings between equilibration and acoustics.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

Predictions of mean values of statistical variables of large scale turbulent flow by the widely used basic k-ϵ model and a new fundamentally based model are verified against published results of Direct Numerical Simulations DNS of the Navier-Stokes equations. The verification concerns turbulent channel flow at shear Reynolds numbers of 950, 2000 and 104. The basic k-ϵ model is largely based on empirical formulations accompanied by calibration constants. This contrasts with the new model where descriptions of leading statistical quantities are based on the general principles of statistical turbulence at large Reynolds number. Predicted values of major output variables such as turbulent viscosity, diffusivity of passive admixture, temperature, and fluid velocities compare well with DNS in case of the new model. Significant differences are seen in case of the basic k-ϵ model.

The capacitated lot-sizing problem with product recovery (CLSP-RM) holds significant importance in reverse logistics but is notoriously complex (NP-hard). In this study, two techniques are introduced to confront this challenge. The first technique entails devising a linear optimization task that eliminates capacity limitations across a wide problem spectrum, yielding a remarkably accurate approximation of the optimal solution. This adaptable approach presents a potent alternative and holds potential for extension to diverse problem categories owing to its versatile nature. The second technique employs a simulation methodology utilizing Halton’s uniform random numbers to address the issue. This randomized production search method sidesteps considerations of production costs, inventory expenditures, and production order when determining production batches. The research’s novelty lies in its application of these techniques to the problem. The suggested methods undergo evaluation via a benchmark dataset of approximately 4200 instances, with comparison against solutions derived through the Gurobi solver. The results underscore the efficacy and resilience of the introduced methodology in tackling the CLSP-RM predicament.

Direct competitions involve competitors that mutually contend for the same resource or objective. A controlled, well-documented, and data-rich field involving direct competition is represented by sports. Usually the winner of sports competitions is believed to be the one with the greatest talent, however, there are other factors that contribute to the outcome of a competition, there are in fact random, unpredictable events that can change the outcome of a competition. For this reason, if one wants to understand the properties of a competition is necessary to have a method to evaluate the importance of the talent or aptitude of a competitor, as opposed to the importance of chance, in determining the outcome of the competition itself. In this work we study the sport of tennis using the data obtained from the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) tournaments. We construct an agent-based model that is able to produce data analogous to the real one; this model depends on three parameters, the talent, the action of chance, and the weight of talent. In particular, we don't fix the values of these parameters and we fit the model results using a genetic algorithm, in this way, we study all the possible combinations of parameters, in the parameter space, that are able to reproduce the real systems data. We show that the model fits well the real data only for limited regions of the parameter space. On these limited regions of the parameter space are possible further optimization of the model results, limiting the values of parameters. In this way, our agent-based model, by means of this genetic algorithm calibration, is able to provide us with useful information without any a priori constraints.

Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

A comprehensive kinetic model of the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) is developed in a fixed bed reactor under operating conditions (temperature, 230–235°C, pressure, 20–25 bar, gas hourly space velocity, 4000–5000 cm³(STP)/h/g_catalyst ,H₂/CO feed molar ratio, 2.1) over a Co based catalyst. Reaction rate equations based on Eley-Rideal (ER) type model for initiation step and Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson (LHHW) type model for propagation and termination steps of the FTS reactions have been considered and the readsorption of olefins were taken into account. The model that was reported in the literature was modified in order to explain many significant deviations from the ASF distribution. Optimum parameters have been obtained by Genetic Algorithms (GA). The calculated activation energies to produce n-paraffins and 1-olefins were in the range of 82.24 to 90.68 kJ/mol and 100.66 to 105.24 kJ/mol, respectively. The hydrocarbon distribution in FTS reactions was satisfactorily predicted particularly for paraffins.

Sewage surveillance can be used as an effective complementary tool for detecting pathogens in local communities, providing insights into emerging threats and aiding in the monitoring of outbreaks. In this study using qPCR and whole genomic sewage surveillance, we detected Mpox virus along with other viruses, in municipal and hospital wastewaters in Belo Horizonte, Brazil over a 9 months period (from July 2022 till March 2023). MPXV DNA detection rates varied in our study, with 19.6% (11 out of 56 samples) detected through the hybrid capture method of whole genome sequencing and 20% (12 out of 60 samples) through qPCR. In hospital wastewaters, the detection rate was higher at 40% (12 out of 30 samples), compared to 13.3%(4 out of 30 samples) in municipal wastewaters. This variation could be attributed to the relatively low number of MPXV cases reported in the city, which ranged from 106 to 341 cases during the study period, and to dilution effects, given that each of the two wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) investigated serves approximately 1.1 million inhabitants. Additionally, nine other virus families were identified in both hospitals and municipal wastewaters including Adenoviridade, Astroviridae, Caliciviridae, Picornaviridade, Polyomaviridae, Coronaviridae (which includes SARS-CoV-2), Herspesviridae, Papillomaviridae and Flaviviridae (notably including Dengue). These findings underscore the potential of genomic sewage surveillance as a robust public health tool for monitoring a wide range of viruses circulating in both community and hospitals environments including MPXV.

Over the past decade, Knowledge bases (KB) have been increasingly utilized to complete and enrich the representation of queries and documents in order to improve the document retrieval task. Although many approaches have used KB for such purpose, understanding how effectively lev-erage entity-based representation still needs to be resolved. This paper proposes a Purely Enti-ty-based Semantic Search Approach for Information Retrieval (PESS4IR) as a novel solution. The approach includes (i) its own entity linking method, (ii) an inverted indexing method, and for document retrieval and ranking, (iii) an appropriate ranking method is designed to take advantage of all the strengths of the approach. We report the findings on the performance of our approach tested by queries annotated by two known entity linking tools, REL and DBpedia-Spotlight. The experiments are performed on the standard TREC 2004 Robust and MSMARCO collections. By using the REL method, for queries whose all terms are annotated and whose average annotation scores are greater than or equal to 0.75, our approach achieves the maximum nDCG@5 score (1.000). Thus, using our approach with any other document retrieval method would be an added value, unless that method achieves the maximum nDCG@5 score for those highly annotated queries.

Adaptation to the impacts of human induced global heating is inevitable. For a socially just and ecological sustainable adjustment to these new circumstances, we need to draw from diverse knowledge systems while, simultaneously, foster a social-ecological transformation. We approach these concerns through the concept of community-based adaptation (CBA) and discuss remedies. Synergies with feminist knowledge systems and indigenous ways of living show the transdisciplinary essence of CBA. By abstracting from its origin and overlapping disciplines, revealing the social metabolism as a common problem, CBA is prone to achieve more equitable and sustainable adjustments. Transdisciplinarity itself and the current related CBA literature point beyond mere adjustments and call for a redesign of the social metabolism, thereby shifting from adaptation to global heating towards adaptation with nature by focusing on social provisioning. An engagement with transformative adaptation and heterodox economics further shows the potential of CBA to serve as an instrument in support of a social-ecological transformation by addressing root causes of vulnerability and by fostering epistemic justice. Reflecting these points back on the epistemological and ontological assumptions of CBA, the viewpoint proposes critical realism as a guiding philosophy of science to move forward.

An accurate and timely precipitation forecast is essential for water resources management in hydropower, irrigation, and reservoir control. The conventional methods are limited by their inability to capture the high precipitation variability in time and space. In the present work, a wavelet-based deep learning approach is adopted to forecast precipitation using the lagged monthly rainfall, local climate variables, and global teleconnections such as IOD, PDO, NAO, and Nino 3.4 as predictors. The method was tested and validated over the Krishna River Basin in India. Overall, the forecasting accuracy was higher using the wavelet-based hybrid models than the single-scale models. The proposed multi-scale model was then applied to the different climatic regions of the country, and it was shown that the model could forecast the rainfall at reasonable accuracy for different climate zones of the country.

Purpose: Now traditional lecture-based teaching and learning have been affected by the COVID-19. The objectives of this article are to design the novel educational technique called ‘dynamic-based learning’ (DBL) that provides the combination of online teaching-learning methods and student’s creativity, to evaluate primary dynamic-based learning function, and to propose dynamic-based learning for higher education. Methods: DBL composes of four steps, including, preparation, homework, classroom, and evaluation, which was designed, and taught in medical and dental schools. Online support materials included mobile phone, email, Facebook Messenger, Line Messenger, Cisco Webex, and Zoom Meetings applications were recruited for this novel method. Results: A total of 32 third-year medical students and 26 sixth-year dental students was treated by DBL similarly. three subjects, including, Innovation in Dentistry, Basic Medical Research, and Principles of Pathology and Forensic Medicine were selected in this article. The results showed students could create their knowledge, ideas, and creativity during the online classes.Conclusion: DBL can be used as an alternative learning mode during the COVID-19 crisis. The benefits of DBL also include high flexibility, dynamic process, active learning, and high creativity. DBL should be tested with other disciplines such as engineering school, laws school, health sciences school, and should be compared with other traditional teaching and learning modes in the future. This method may support the global higher education systems to move forward the COVID-19 pandemic to set a novel standard of a future normal.

With the rapid development of Earth observation and information technology, people are increasingly able to access geospatial models. Geospatial models, based on principles of geography, utilize mathematical, statistical, as well as computer science methods to interpret and predict geographic phenomena. These models can be applied in the fields such as urban planning, environmental protection, traffic management to help decision-makers solve geography-related problems. However, integrating different geospatial models to collaboratively solve complex geographic problems still faces significant obstacles due to heterogeneity in model structure, dependencies, and running modes. In this study, we propose a containerized service-based integration framework for heterogeneous geospatial models (GeoCSIF). GeoCSIF consists of three main components: (1) Model encapsulation. It breaks down complicated geospatial models into independently manageable model units, and builds as unified service packages with a templated constraint method. (2) Model orchestration. It achieves an optimal combination of large-scale models with complex dependencies using a prioritization-based orchestration method. (3) Model publication. It incorporates heuristics into the model scheduling process, which can provide adaptive deployment for different model runs. Finally, a prototype system was developed to validate the effectiveness and progressiveness of GeoCSIF by the integrating process of heterogeneous flood disaster models.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has inflicted significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. Continuous virus mutations have led to the emergence of new variants. The Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage prevailed as the dominant variant globally at the beginning of 2022 but was subsequently replaced by BA.2 in numerous countries. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) offers an efficient tool for capturing viral shedding from infected individuals, enabling early detection of potential pandemic outbreaks without relying solely on community cooperation and clinical testing resources. This study integrated RT-qPCR assays for detecting general SARS-CoV-2 and its variants levels in wastewater into a modified triple susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model. The emergence of the Omicron-BA.1 variant was observed, replacing the presence of its predecessor, the Delta variant. Comparative analysis between the wastewater data and the modified SIRS model effectively described the BA.1 and subsequent BA.2 waves, with the decline of the Delta variant aligning with its diminished presence below the detection threshold in wastewater. This study demonstrates the potential of WBE as a valuable tool for future pandemics. Furthermore, by analyzing the sensitivity of different variants to model parameters, we are able to deduce real-life values of cross-variant immunity probabilities, emphasizing the asymmetry in their strength.

This paper deals with a non-contact method to identify the aerodynamic propeller parameters of the Parrot AR.Drone quadrotor. The experimental set consists in a camera recording the vehicle flights, the audio signal is extracted and is used a spectrogram analysis to estimates the propeller velocity. First, the aerial vehicle takes off and starts a hovering maneuver. The experiment is repeated with different additional masses attached to its rigid body. If the weight over the UAV increases/decreases, then the propeller must rotates faster/slower to produce a higher/lower thrust, and consequently, the sound frequency increases/decreases. Finally, this proposition is validated experimentally, and the estimated velocity is used to identify the quadrotor thrust parameters.

Time and cost-efficient techniques are essential to avoid extra conventional experimental studies with large date-set to characterize the mechanical properties of composite materials. Correlation between the structural performance and mechanical properties could be captured through the efficient predictive models. Several ensembled Machine Learning (ML) methods were implemented in this study, to materially characterize carbon nanotube (CNT)-reinforced cement-based composites. Proposed models were compared with each other to represent the accuracy of each method. The Flexural and Compressive Strength (target values) of CNT reinforced composites were predicted based on the data-rich framework provided in previous experimental investigations. These data were utilized for training of the proposed models by employing SciKit-Learn library in Python, followed by hyper-parameter tuning and k-fold cross-validation method for obtaining an efficient model to predict the target values. Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) were developed for this purpose. The findings of this study would be useful for prospective composite designers in case of sufficient experimental data availability for ML model training.

Fractional cointegration in time series data has been explored by several authors, but panel data applications have been largely neglected. A previous study of ours discovered that the Chen and Hurvich fractional cointegration test for time series was fairly robust to a moderate degree of heterogeneity across sections, out of the six tests considered. Therefore, this paper advances a customized version of the Chen and Hurvich methodology to detect cointegrating connections in panels with unobserved fixed effects. Specifically, we develop a test statistic that accommodates variation in the long-term cointegrating vectors and fractional cointegration parameters across observational units. The behaviour of our proposed test is examined through extensive Monte Carlo experiments under various data generating processes and circumstances. The findings reveal that our modified test performs quite well comparatively and can successfully identify fractional cointegrating relationships in panels even in the presence of idiosyncratic disturbances unique to each cross-sectional unit. Furthermore, the proposed modified test procedure established the presence of long-run equilibrium between the exchange rate and labour wage of 36 countries agricultural markets.

This research uses a gravity model method to investigate the factors determining the number of tourists visiting Australia. Understanding the variables that draw visitors to specific locations is essential for policymakers and other stakeholders in the tourism sector since tourism continues to play a significant role in the economy of many countries worldwide. Despite the widespread use of gravity models in the analysis of international tourism flows, only a tiny amount of attention has been paid to particularly researching the flow of tourists to Australia. This research addresses this knowledge gap by analyzing the variables influencing travel patterns to Australia. The gravity model framework is used, and it considers factors like gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, migratory stocks, distance, population size, cost of living, and cultural similarities. The purpose of this research is to aid in developing focused marketing strategies by providing insights into the factors that influence the flow of tourists to Australia via the analysis of these variables. The results are anticipated to add to the current literature on gravity modeling in tourist research and give practical implications for industry stakeholders and policymakers. The discussion of the findings, their ramifications, and possible directions for further study serves as the conclusion of the work.

Postgraduate research is a massive stumbling block to students who had never had an opportunity of exposure to research methods. A study conducted by the researcher (Costa, 2018) revealed challenges in postgraduate supervision—one of these challenges was lack of exposure to research language by students. Qualitative research and its complexities due to a variety of approaches including rigour determination pose a plethora of challenges to novice researchers. This document presents C.O.S.T.A model as a tool suitable for use by academics and students, with a panoramic view of steps to be taken first to understand foundational concepts and the language of research and secondly to make informed choices on the research methods and design strategy options available for the prospective researcher. Conclusions drawn on the reliability of the model are based on empirical evidence of application of the model observed over a period of 12 months, with some students testifying to have passed their research projects satisfactorily at their respective leading universities in South Africa. Secondary research also provides voluminous sources of success of similar research supervision programmes both in South Africa and abroad.

The exact dynamics of emergence remains one of the most prominent outstanding questions for the field of complexity science. I first discuss various perspectives on emergence in various contexts, then offer a different perspective on understanding emergence in a graph-theoretic representation. From the discussion, an observer’s choice in state space seems to have an effect for that observer to detect emergent behavior. To test these ideas, I analyze the dynamics of all possible spatial state spaces near the critical temperature in an Ising model. As a result, state space topologies that appear more deterministic flip more bits than topologies that appear more random, which is contrary to our intuitions about randomness. In addition, the size of different state spaces constrain a system’s ability to explore various states within the same time frame. These results are important to understanding emergent phenomena in biological systems, which are layered with various state spaces and observational perspectives.

Rubella infection is typically mild or asymptomatic except when infection occurs during pregnancy. Infection in early pregnancy can cause miscarriage, stillbirth, or congenital rubella syndrome. Only individuals that are still susceptible to rubella infection during child-bearing age are vulnerable to this burden. Rubella containing vaccine (RCV) is safe and effective, providing life-long immunity. However, average age-at-infection increases with increasing vaccination coverage, which could potentially lead to increased disease burden as well, if the absolute risk of infection during child-bearing age increases. Dynamics of rubella transmission were explored using EMOD, a software tool for building stochastic, agent-based infection models. Simulations of pre-vaccine, endemic transmission of rubella virus introduced RCV at varying levels of coverage to determine the expected future trajectories of disease burden. Introducing RCV reduces both rubella virus transmission and disease burden for a period of around 15 years. Increased disease burden is only possible more than a decade post-introduction, and only for contexts with low current burden and high transmission intensity. Low or declining rubella virus transmission intensity is concurrently associated with both greater disease burden and greater vaccine effectiveness. The risk of increasing burden through vaccination only exists for locations with persistently high infectivity, high connectivity, and high fertility. A trade-off between the risk of a small, future burden increase and a large, immediate burden decrease strongly favors RCV introduction.

In the context of growing global political tension and introduction of world trade barriers, the urgent task is to develop new tools for assessing their consequences. In the paper we present the agent-based model of trade wars, considering organizations, states and residents generated using initial statistical data. Simulation determines changes in output and supplies of organizations under trade restrictions. Results of calculations on the developed model and comparison of various model complexes forecasts with real consequences of trade wars between the USA and China in 2018 and Western countries against Russia in 2022 are presented. Within calculations four scenarios were considered: (1) baseline, (2) new restrictions between China and the USA, (3) more serious sanctions against China and Russia by the USA and the EU, (4) a global trade war. In the second scenario deviation GDP of the USA and China from the baseline scenario does not exceed 0.5%. In the third scenario, the range of countries involved is expanding, and the fall in GDP in them is expected at the level of 0.7-1%. In the fourth scenario, the entire world economy experiences a serious slowdown, and the EU are facing the most severe consequences, going into recession.

The main objective of this work is the design and implementation of self-adaptive capabilities in wireless sensors by applying control engineering and model-based design methodologies. It has been addressed the problem related to the changes in the flow of data packets through the network connection and the excess energy consumption that this causes in these devices. To design the solution, a systemic characterization of the scheduling and execution process of embedded tasks on the device has been carried out. This means defining cause-effect relationships in the system and its modelling theoretically and/or experimentally. In turn, these models facilitate the design of control strategies to improve the dynamic behavior of the system. As a solution, a self-adaptation strategy based on feedforward control algorithm has been designed and developed, which has been applied to improve the dynamic behavior and resource consumption. The developed solution has been satisfactorily evaluated experimentally.

This paper investigates the theoretical foundation for developing renewable geothermal resources locally. For this reason, we pay attention to the role of communities in geothermal development. This study presents arguments for a framework that approaches the geothermal resources as an endogenous factor of community development. To analyse it, we create a model that explains the local economic characters of the geothermal exploitation beyond its geological conditions. It aims to conceptualise a community based geothermal development standard referring to the endogeneity principle. Geothermal energy is given attention since the characteristics of this resource determine its use locally. We argue that the role of communities in geothermal exploitation is pivotal in the process of green growth for further expansion of geothermal energy use.

We introduce the Concept-Model-Graph-View Cycle (CMGVC). The CMGVC facilitates coherent architecture analysis, reasoning, insight, and decision-making based on conceptual models that are transformed into a generic, robust graph data structure (GDS). The GDS is then transformed into multiple views of the model, which inform stakeholders in various ways. This GDS-based approach decouples the view from the model and constitutes a powerful enhancement of model-based systems engineering (MBSE). The CMGVC applies the rigorous foundations of Category Theory, a mathematical framework of representations and transformations. We show that modeling languages are categories, drawing an analogy to programming languages. The CMGVC architecture is superior to direct transformations and language-coupled common representations. We demonstrate the CMGVC to transform a conceptual system architecture model built with the Object Process Modeling Language (OPM) into dual graphs and a stakeholder-informing matrix that stimulates system architecture insight.

The socioeconomic sectors increasingly rely on prompt and affordable tools to predict climatic conditions. This study uses a decision tree classifier model to identify similar monthly ENSO 3.4 indices from March 2001 to February 2011 through monthly historical ENSO3.4 indices (December 1950 – February 2001). Historical monthly ENSO3.4 indices were used to extract available high-resolution monthly historical precipitation grids (1950-2001) for Mexico and constructed monthly ensembles (March 2001 – February 2011 hindcasts). Formerly, a precipitation categorization of monthly observed and simulated precipitation (2001-2011 hindcasts) was employed. Thereafter, global vector data and spatial map assessments were performed seasonally (winter, spring, summer, and fall). Global KSS and HSS metrics indicated the model approach has skill, especially in the spring and fall. Spatial metrics exposed large areas with hit rates > 0.60 in winter and spring, though in winter and spring (dry seasons), it was due to the precipitation categorization hindcast and observed were within the first classification. Lower hit rates, but still acceptable (> 0.40), were detected in summer and fall (during the rainy season and at the end, respectively) because more precipitation classifications were tested and prone to miss. Spatial Spearman correlations provided specific areas of significant model performances and found that high hit rates during the winter and spring are spurious. Meanwhile, it was also found that during the fall the model approach is reliable in most of Mexico, followed by the spring, and in constraint areas in summer and winter across the country. It also appears that dominant ENSO neutral events followed by balanced ENSO cooling and warming events do not prefer the model skill. Overall, the empirical method shows promise (low-cost human and computational resources if ENSO indices expose certainty in its Lead months to forecast) and has the potential to be used in other developing countries influenced by El Niño phenomena.

Purpose: To construct a hidden Markov model (HMM) for vigilance assessment to improve the real-time performance and accuracy of current vigilance measurement. Methods: ECG signal was collected by sensors, while the noise and baseline drift was eliminated from the original ECG signal. 10 volunteers were randomly selected. Their heart rate variability (HRV) were measured and trained parameters of the modified Hidden Markov model for vigilance assessment. Then, these data were collected to optimize using the Baum-Welch algorithm and obtained the state transition probability matrix A ̂ and the observation probability matrix B ̂. Finally, the data of three volunteers with different transition patterns of mental state were selected randomly and used the Viterbi algorithm to find the optimal state, which compared with the actual state. Results: The constructed vigilance assessment model had a high accuracy rate the accuracy rate of data prediction for these three volunteers exceeded 80%. Conclusion: The Hidden Markov model for vigilance assessment can accurately predict the vigilance level and indicate broad application prospects.

Fitts' law predicts the human movement response time for a specific task by a simple linear formulation, in which the intercept and the slope are estimated from the task's empirical data. This research was motivated by our pilot study, which found that the linear regression's essential assumptions are not satisfied in the literature. Furthermore, the keystone hypothesis in Fitts' law, that the movement time per response will be directly proportional to the minimum average amount of information per response demanded by the particular amplitude and target width, has never been formally tested. Therefore, this study developed an optional formulation derived from fusing the findings in psychology, physics, and physiology for fulfilling the statistical assumptions. An experiment was designed to test the hypothesis in Fitts' law and validate the proposed model. To conclude, our results indicated that movement time could be related to the index of difficulty underlying the same constant amplitude. The optional formulation accompanies the index of difficulty in Shannon form robustly performs the prediction better than the traditional model across studies. Finally, a new approach to modeling movement time prediction is deduced from our research results

Indoor Positioning Systems (IPSs) are designed to provide solutions for location-based services. Wireless local area network (WLAN)-based positioning systems are the most widespread around the globe and are commonly found to have a ready-to-use infrastructure composed mostly of access points (APs). They provide useful information on signal strength to be processed by adequate location algorithms, which are not always capable of achieving the desired localization error only by themselves. In this sense, this paper proposes a new method to improve the accuracy of IPSs by optimizing some of their most relevant infrastructure components. Included are the arrangement of APs over the environment, the number of reference points (RPs), and the number of samples per location estimation test. A simulation environment is also proposed, in which the impact of key influencing factors on system accuracy is analyzed. Finally, a case study is simulated to validate an optimal combination of design parameters and its compliance with the requirements of localization error and the limited number of access points. Our simulation results clearly show that the desired localization accuracy, which is set as a goal, can be achieved while maintaining the factors already mentioned at minimal levels, which decreases both system deployment costs and computational effort.

This study assesses the impact of incorporating an adaptive learning mechanism into an agent-based model (ABMS) simulating behavior on a university campus during the course of a pandemic outbreak, with a particular case on the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim is to reduce overcrowding and infections on campus through the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL). Our findings indicate that RL is a viable approach for effectively representing agents’ behavior within this context. The results reveal specific temporal patterns of overcrowding violations. While our study successfully mitigated campus crowding, it had limited influence on altering the course of the epidemic. This highlights the necessity for comprehensive epidemic control strategies that consider the role of individual decision-making influenced by adaptive learning, along with the implementation of targeted interventions. This research significantly contributes to our understanding of adaptive learning within complex systems and offers valuable insights for shaping future public health policies in similar community settings. Future research directions encompass exploring various parameter settings and updating representations of the disease’s natural history.

Evidence-based data for endometriosis management are limited. Experiments are excluded without adequate animal models. Data are limited to symptomatic women and occasional observations. Hormonal medical therapy cannot be blinded if recognised by the patient. Randomised controlled trials are not realistic for surgery since a variable disease with low numbers. Each diagnosis and treatment is an experiment with an outcome and experience is Bayesian updating from the past. If the experience of many is similar, this has more value than an opinion. The combined experience of a group of endometriosis surgeons was used to discuss problems in the management of endometriosis. Considering endometriosis as several genetically/epigenetically different diseases is important for medical therapy. Imaging cannot exclude endometriosis and diagnostic accuracy is limited for superficial lesions, deep lesions, and cystic corpora lutea. Surgery should not be avoided for emotional reasons. Shifting infertility treatment to IVF without considering fertility surgery is questionable. The concept of complete excision should be reconsidered. Surgeons should introduce quality control and teaching should move to explain why it is done. The perception of information has a personal bias. These are the major problems in the management of endometriosis identified by the combined experience of endometriosis surgeons.

Wearable assistant devices play an important role in daily life for people with disabilities. Those who are hearing impaired may face dangers while walking or driving on the road. The major danger is their inability to hear warning sounds from cars or ambulances. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a wearable assistant device for the hearing impaired to recognize emergency vehicle sirens on the road using edge computing. An EfficientNet-based fuzzy rank-based ensemble model was proposed to classify seven audio sounds, including human vocalizations and emergency vehicle sirens. This model was embedded in an Arduino Nano 33 BLE Sense development board. The audio files were respectively obtained from the CREMA-D dataset and Large Scale Audio dataset of emergency vehicle sirens on the road, with a total number of 8756 files. The seven audio sounds included neutral vocalization, anger vocalization, fear vocalization, happy vocalization, car horn sound, siren sound, and ambulance siren sound. The audio signal was converted into a spectrogram by the short-time Fourier transform as the feature. When one of the car horns, sirens, or ambulance sirens was detected, the wearable assistant device presented alarms through vibration and messages on the OLED panel. The performances of the EfficientNet-based fuzzy rank-based ensemble model in offline computing achieved an accuracy of 97.1%, precision of 97.79%, sensitivity of 96.8%, and specificity of 97.04%. In edge computing, the results were an accuracy of 95.2%, precision of 93.2%, sensitivity of 95.3%, and specificity of 95.1%. Thus, the proposed wearable assistant device has the potential benefit of helping the hearing impaired avoid traffic accidents.

The relation between CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentration has traditionally been treated with more or less complex models with several boxes. Our approach is motivated by the question of how much CO2 must necessarily be absorbed by sinks. Observations lead to the model assumption, that carbon sinks like oceans or biosphere are linearly dependent on CO2 concentration on a decadal scale. In particular this implies the falsifiable hypothesis that oceanic and biological CO2 buffers have not significantly changed in the past 50 years and are not saturated in the forseeable future. The simple model with 2 parameters explains very well the CO2 emission and historical CO2 concentration data. The model gives estimates of the natural emissions, the pre-industrial CO2 equilibrium concentration levels, the half-life time of an emission pulse, and the future CO2 concentration level from a given emission scenario. This is validated by an ex-post forecast of the last 20 years. The important result is that with the stated polices scenario of the IEA future CO2 concentrations will not rise above 475 ppm. The model is compared with the Carbon modul of the Bern model, mapping their complex IRFs to a single time variant parameter.

In this study, based on our previous study, we examined the mathematical properties, especially the stability of the equilibrium for our proposed mathematical model. By means of the results of the stability in this study, we also used actual data representing transient booms and resurgent booms, and conducted parameter estimation for our proposed model using Bayesian inference. In addition, we conducted a model fitting to five actual data. By this study, we reconfirmed that we can express the resurgences or minute vibrations of actual data by means of our proposed model.

Incorporating source-side linguistic knowledge into the neural machine translation (NMT) model has recently achieved impressive performance on machine translation tasks. One popular method is to generalize the word embedding layer of the encoder to encode each word and its linguistic features. The other method is to change the architecture of the encoder to encode syntactic information. However, the former cannot explicitly balance the contribution from the word and its linguistic features. The latter cannot flexibly utilize various types of linguistic information. Focusing on the above issues, this paper proposes a novel NMT approach that models the words in parallel to the linguistic knowledge by using two separate encoders. Compared with the single encoder based NMT model, the proposed approach additionally employs the knowledge-based encoder to specially encode linguistic features. Moreover, it shares parameters across encoders to enhance the model representation ability of the source-side language. Extensive experiments show that the approach achieves significant improvements of up to 2.4 and 1.1 BLEU points on Turkish→English and English→Turkish machine translation tasks, respectively, which indicates that it is capable of better utilizing the external linguistic knowledge and effective improving the machine translation quality.

This work presents some characteristics of MoNet, a computerized platform for the modeling and visualization of complex systems. Emphasis is on the ideas that allowed the successful progressive development of this modeling platform, which goes along with the implementation of applications to the modeling of several studied systems. The platform has the capacity to represent different aspects of systems modeled at different observation scales. This tool offers advantages in the sense of favoring the perception of the phenomenon of the emergence of information, associated with changes of scale. Some criteria used for the construction of this modeling platform are included. The power of current computers has made practical representing graphic resources such as shapes, line thickness, overlaying-text tags, colors and transparencies, in the graphical modeling of systems made up of many elements. By visualizing diagrams conveniently designed to highlight contrasts, these modeling platforms allow the recognition of patterns that drive our understanding of systems and their structure. Graphs that reflect the benefits of the tool regarding the visualization of systems at different scales of observation are presented to illustrate the application of the platform.

Decision tables have been used for many years in data processing and business applications to simulate complex rule sets. Several computer languages have been developed based on rule systems and they are easily programmed in several current languages. Land management and river-reservoir models simulate complex land management operations and reservoir management in highly regulated river systems. Decision tables are a precise yet compact way to model the rule sets and corresponding actions found in these models. In this study, we discuss the suitability of decision tables to simulate management in the river basin scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) model. Decision tables are developed to simulate automated irrigation and reservoir releases. A simple auto irrigation application of decision tables was developed using plant water stress as a condition for irrigating corn in Texas. Sensitivity of the water stress trigger and irrigation application amounts were shown on soil moisture and corn yields. In addition, the Grapevine Reservoir near Dallas, Texas was used to illustrate the use of decision tables to simulate reservoir releases. The releases were conditioned on reservoir volumes and flood season. The release rules as implemented by the decision table realistically simulated flood releases as evidenced by a daily NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.52 and a percent bias of -1.1%. Using decision tables to simulate management in land, river and reservoir models was shown to have several advantages over current approaches including: 1) mature technology with considerable literature and applications, 2) ability to accurately represent complex, real world decision making, 3) code that is efficient, modular and easy to maintain, and 4) tables that are easy to maintain, support, and modify.

The thermal properties of a building envelope are key indicators of the energy performance of the building. Therefore, methods are needed to determine quantities like U-values or heat capacitance in a fast, reliable way and with as little impact on the use of the building as possible. In this paper a technique is proposed that relies on a simplified electrical analogical model of building envelope components which can cover their dynamic thermal behavior. The parameters of this model are optimized to produce the best fit between simulated and measured outside surface temperatures. As the temperatures can be measured remotely with an infrared camera this approach requires significantly less installation effort and intrusion in the building than other methods. At the same time, a single measurement provides data for a large range of locations on a facade or a roof. The paper describes the method and a first experimental implementation of it. The experiment indicates that this method has the potential to produce results which have an accuracy that is comparable to standardized reference methods.

Hepatic carboxylesterase 1(CES1) metabolizes many prodrugs into active ingredients or direct-acting drugs into inactive metabolites. We aim to develop a semi-physiologically based pharmacokinetic model(Semi-PBPK model) to simultaneously predict pharmacokinetics of CES1 substrates and their active metabolites in liver cirrhosis(LC) patients. Six prodrugs(enalapril, benazepril, cilazapril, temocapril, perindopril and oseltamivir) and three direct-acting drugs (flumazenil, pethidine and remimazolam) were selected. The parameters including organ blood flows, plasma binding protein concentrations, functional liver volume, hepatic enzymatic activity, glomerular filtration rate(GFR) and gastrointestinal transit rate were introduced into the simulation. Pharmacokinetic profiles of these drugs and their active metabolites were simulated in 100 virtual subjects. The developed semi-PBPK model, following validation in healthy subjects, was extrapolated to LC patients. Most of the observations are within the 5% and 95% quantile of simulations from 100 virtual patients. The estimated AUC and Cmax are within 0.5-2-fold of observation. The sensitivity analysis showed that the decreased plasma exposure of active metabolite due to the decreased CES1 was partly attenuated by the decreased GFR. Conclusion: The developed PBPK model has successfully predicted pharmacokinetics of CES1 substrates and their metabolites in healthy subjects and LC patients, which assists in tailoring dosages of CES1 substrates in LC patients.

This study measured secondary students’ digital literacy using a digital game-based assessment system that was designed and developed based on the Evidence-Centered Game Design (ECGD) approach. A total of 188 secondary students constituted the valid samples in this study. Fine-grained behavioral data generated from students’ gameplay processes were collected and recorded with the assessment system. The Delphi method was used to extract feature variables related to digital literacy from the process data, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to construct the measurement model. The assessment results of the ECGD-based assessment had a high correlation with standardized test scores, which have been shown to be reliable and valid in prior large-scale assessment studies.

Modelling and presenting mathematical relationships for human behaviour is one of the most complex issues that researchers have always dealt with. In this article, a bottom-up framework for calculating agricultural needs is presented using the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers (such as education level, age, and dependence on income on agriculture) and how their lands are located concerning each other (interactions between neighbours). The objective function of this framework is to maximize the profit of individual farmers based on the amount of water received. Two scenarios, ABM1 (not considering neighbourhood effects) and ABM2 (all cases of farmers' placement and feeling neighbourhood effects), were investigated. In the first scenario (ABM1), there was a noteworthy reduction in water deficit volumes by approximately 35%, accompanied by a 20% increment in farmers' profits. Interestingly, higher risk-taking tendencies correlated with reduced profit margins. The second scenario (ABM2) underscored the significant role of neighborhood dynamics in cultivating diverse behavioral patterns among farmers, subsequently affecting their profitability. A granular examination revealed that farmers with a higher propensity for risk-taking generally accrued lower profits. Additionally, the study facilitated the calculation of total annual profits and average water consumption for each farmer, offering valuable insights for optimizing water resource management and allocation strategies. These findings are instrumental for planners and water resource managers aiming to promote sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water use.

Developmental hazard evaluation is an important part of assessing chemical risks during pregnancy. Toxicological outcomes from prenatal testing in pregnant animals result from complex chemical-biological interactions, and while New Approach Methods (NAMs) based on in vitro bioactivity profiles of human cells offer promising alternatives to animal testing, most of these assays lack cellular positional information, physical constraints, and regional organization of the intact embryo. Here, we engineered a fully computable model of the embryonic disc in the compucell3d.org modeling environment to simulate epithelial-mesenchymal transition of epiblast cells and self-organization of mesodermal domains (chordamesoderm, paraxial, lateral plate, posterior/extraembryonic). Cell fate in the model is determined by an autonomous homeobox (HOX) clock driven by morphogenetic signals (e.g., FGF, WNT, ATRA, CDX). Executing the model renders a quantitative cell-level computation of mesodermal subpopulations and consequences of perturbation based on known embryogeny. For example, synthetic perturbation of the control network rendered altered phenotypes (cybermorphs) mirroring experimental mouse embryology, with 50% reductions in FGF4, FGF8 and BMP4 signaling resulting in 86%, 98% and 59% reductions, respectively in the posterior mesodermal population, while ATRA exposure also resulted in a 78% decrease in this population. This model enables integration of in vitro chemical bioactivity data for specific molecular targets with known embryology to test mechanistic veracity and quantitative prediction of altered development.

In recent years the study of the teacher-student relationship in the teaching-learning processes in physical education has had great emphasis. Previous studies have shown that the use of the Spectrum of teaching Styles can enhance intrinsic motivation, enjoyment, adherence to physical activity and physical activity levels in children and adolescents. The present study aims to assess if a physical education (PE) intervention based on the variations in teaching styles, with reference to production ones, can also have positive effects on physical fitness. The sample involved 4 primary school classes (n = 124 children, mean age = 8-10 years) recruited from the SBAM (Health, Wellness, Food Education and Movement at School) Project in Apulia, Southern Italy. Classes were randomly assigned to Experimental Group (EG) and Control Group (CG). EG followed a 5months experimental intervention based on the variation of teaching styles, while CG performed regular PE lessons. Physical fitness test was assessed with Standing Long Jump (SLJ), Medicine Ball Throw 1kg (MBT), and 20m sprint (20m), while two validated questionnaires were used to evaluate physical self-perception (PSP) and enjoyment. A 2x2 (intervention group x time) ANOVA was carried out to assess significant difference and interaction effect pre (t0) and post (t1) intervention protocol. Data analysis showed a significant improvement of physical fitness in both EG and CG, while PSP and enjoyment increased only in EG. Moreover, significant interaction (p<. 05) effects were found for 20m sprint, PSP and Enjoyment with low effect size (η2 ~. 20). The results of the present study highlight the effectiveness of a PE intervention based on the variation of teaching styles in improving physical fitness, self-perception, and enjoyment. Moreover, the use of production teaching styles significantly impacts self-perception and enjoyment, that are important mediating factors for guarantee better adherence to physical activity.

As a radiant light source within the dynamic range of most spacecraft payloads, the moon pro-vides an excellent reference for on-orbit radiometric calibration. This research hinges on the pre-cise simulation of lunar spectral irradiances and the Earth-based Moon observation geometry. The paper leverages the Hapke model to simulate the temporal changes in lunar spectral irradi-ances, utilizing datasets obtained from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC). The re-search also details the transformation process from the lunar geographic coordinate system to the instantaneous projection coordinate system, thereby delineating the necessary observational geometry. The insights offered by this study have the potential to enhance future in-orbit space-craft calibration procedures, thereby boosting the fidelity of data gathered from satellite obser-vations.

In network analysis, links depict the connections between each pair of network nodes. However, such pairwise connections fail to consider the interactions among more agents, which may be indirectly connected. Such non-pairwise or higher-order connections can be signified by involving simplicial complexes. The higher-order connections become even more noteworthy when it comes to neuronal network synchronization, an emerging phenomenon responsible for the many biological processes in real-world phenomena. However, involving higher-order interactions may considerably increase the computational costs. To confound this issue, map-based models are more suitable since they are faster, simpler, more flexible, and computationally more optimal. Therefore, this paper addresses the impact of pairwise and non-pairwise neuronal interactions on the synchronization state of 10 coupled memristive Hindmarsh-Rose neuron maps. To this aim, electrical, inner linking, and chemical synaptic functions are considered as 2- and 3-body interactions in three homogenous and two non-homogenous cases. The results show that through chemical pairwise and non-pairwise synapses, the neurons achieve synchrony with the weakest coupling strengths.

The high penetration of intermittence resources in the energy market accelerates significantly the decarbonization process but, on the other hand, the electrical system has to face the problem of unbalances. Renewable Energies Sources (RES) are hard to precisely forecast, and power plants are not able to predict the amount of energy that they can provide far from the real time delivery. In this frame, the intraday market gets a fundamental role allowing agents to adjust their position close to the delivery time. In this work we suggest an agent-based model of intraday market combined with genetics algorithms to understand what the best strategy could be adopted by players in order to optimize the market efficiency in terms of welfare and unsold quantity. In the first part we show the effect on the market prices of different scenarios in which players aim at maximizing their revenues and selling/buying all their volumes. In the second part we show the effect of a particular genetic algorithm on the model, focusing on how agents can adapt their strategy to enhance the market efficiency. Comparative analyses are also performed to investigate how the welfare of the system increases as well as the unsold quantity decrease when genetic algorithm is introduced

Vehicle driveability is one of the important vehicle attributes in range-extender electric vehicles due to the electric motor torque characteristics at low-speed events. The process of validating and rectifying vehicle driveability attributes is typically utilised by a physical vehicle prototype that can be expensive and required several design iterations. In this paper, a model-based energy method to assess vehicle driveability is presented based on a high-fidelity 49 degree-of-freedom powertrain and vehicle systems. Multibody dynamics components were built according to their true centre of gravity relative to the vehicle datum for providing an accurate system interaction. The work covered a frequency at less than 20 Hz. The results that consisted of the component frequency domination are structured and examined to identify the low-frequency sensitivity based on different operating parameters such as a road surface coefficient. An energy path technique was also implemented on the dominant component by decoupling its compliances to study the effect on the vehicle driveability and low-frequency response. The outcomes of the research provided a good understanding of the interaction across the sub-systems levels. The powertrain rubber mounts were the dominant components that controlled the low-frequency contents (< 15.33 Hz) and can change the vehicle driveability quality.

Computer simulation of normal and diseased human heart activity requires a 3D anatomical model of the myocardium, including myofibres. For clinical applications, such a model has to be constructed based on routine methods of cardiac visualisation such as sonography. Symmetrical models are shown to be too rigid, so an analytical non-symmetrical model with enough flexibility is necessary. Based on previously made anatomical models of the left ventricle, we propose a new, much more flexible spline-based analytical model. The model is fully described and verified against DT-MRI data. We show a way to construct it on the basis of sonography data. To use this model in further physiological simulations, we propose a numerical method to utilise finite differences in solving the reaction-diffusion problem together with an example of scroll wave dynamics simulation.

Large lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles and energy storage systems demonstrate different performance and lifetime compared to small LIB cells, owing to the size effects generated by the electrical configuration and property imbalance. However, the calculation time for performing life predictions with three-dimensional (3D) cell models is undesirably long. In this paper, a lumped cell model with equivalent resistances (LER cell model) is proposed as a reduced order model of the 3D cell model, which enables accurate and fast life predictions of large LIBs. The developed LER cell model is validated via the comparisons with results of the 3D cell models by simulating a 20-Ah commercial pouch cell (NCM/graphite) and the experimental values. In addition, the LER cell models are applied to different cell types and sizes, such as a 20-Ah cylindrical cell and a 60-Ah pouch cell.

In this paper, we introduce a non-invasive approach for monitoring bridge infrastructure with ground-based interferometric radar. This approach is called the mirror mode, since it utilises the flat surface of the bridge underside as a mirror to reflect the signal to a corner reflector on the ground placed opposite of the radar sensor. For proving the feasibility of this approach, a measurement campaign has been carried out at an exemplary bridge in Karlsruhe (Germany) including a radar sensor in mirror mode, a second radar sensor in the default mode and a laser profile scanner. We investigate the potential of this approach to monitor the bridge displacement in vertical direction and compare the results with the two other sensors. The derived results reveal the potential for monitoring bridge infrastructure. Finally, we propose further research aspects of this approach to analyse its capabilities and limitation in the context of non-invasive infrastructure monitoring.

Cadmium (II) contamination in the environment is an emerging problem due to its acute toxicity and mobility, so it is very urgent to remove this species from industrial wastewater before it is discharged into the environment. Thus, a starch-based activated carbon (AC) with a specific surface area of 1600 m2g-1 is used as an adsorbent for the capturing of toxic Cadmium (II) ions from synthetic solution. The sorbent is characterized by BET, SEM, TEM, XRD, FT-IR, TGA, and zeta potential. The maximum uptake (284 mg g-1) of Cadmium (II) ion is obtained at pH 6. The thermodynamics parameters like ∆G, ∆H, ΔS are found to be -17.42 kJmol-1, 6.49 kJ mol-1, and 55.66 Jmol-1K-1 respectively, revealing that the adsorption mechanism is endothermic, spontaneous, and feasible. The experimental data follows the D-R and Langmuir models well. The mass transfer is controlled by pseudo 2nd order kinetics. Furthermore, the density functional theory simulations demonstrate that the activated carbon strongly interacted with the Cd (II) ion through its various active sites. The adsorption energy noted for all interactive sites is highly negative (-0.45 eV to -10.03 eV), which shows that the adsorption process is spontaneous and stable which is in agreement with the experimental thermodynamics analysis.

In econometrics and finance, volatility modelling has long been a specialised field for addressing a variety of issues pertaining to the risk and uncertainties of an asset. This study presents a robust framework, through a step-by-step design, that is relevant for effective Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with empirical verifications to estimate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model. The framework describes an organised approach to the MCS experiment that includes "background (optional), defining the aim, research questions, method of implementation, and summarised conclusion". The method of implementation is a workflow that consists of writing the code, setting the seed, setting the true parameter a priori, data generation process, and performance assessment through meta-statistics. Among the findings, it is experimentally demonstrated in the study that the GAS model with a lower unconditional shape parameter value can generate a dataset that adequately reflects the behaviour of financial time series data, relevant for volatility estimation. This dynamic framework is intended to help interested users on MCS experiments utilising the GAS model for reliable volatility calculations in finance and other areas.

Tissue engineered heart valves can grow, repair, and remodel after implantation, presenting a more favorable long-term solution compared to mechanical and porcine valves. Achieving functional engineered valve tissue requires the maturation of human cells seeded onto valve scaffolds under favorable growth conditions in bioreactors. The mechanical stress and strain on developing valve tissue caused by different pressure and flow conditions in bioreactors are currently unknown. The aim of this study is to quantify the wall shear stress (WSS) magnitude in heart valve prostheses under different valve geometries and bioreactor flow rates. To achieve this, the study used fluid-structure interaction simulations to obtain the valve's opening geometries during the systolic phase. These geometries were then used in computational fluid dynamics simulations with refined near-wall mesh elements and ranges of prescribed inlet flow rates. The data obtained included histograms and regression curves that characterized the distribution, peak, and median WSS for various flow rates and opening configurations. The study also found that the upper region of the valve near the commissures experienced higher WSS magnitudes than the rest of the valve.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates ‘base factors’, such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with ‘external factors’, including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a ‘Hold’ option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Enterprises that seek for sustainable development should align economic interests with environmental and social requirements. It is not enough to take into account just these basics components. Technology plays a significant role in company activity. The aim of this article is to highlight the relationship between the dimensions characterising sustainability and to take a deeper look at the structure of the concept of sustainability so that to understand in more detail the completeness of the dimensions of sustainability. For achieving this aim is necessary through the analysis of researchers’ opinions to apply the logical assessment, systematisation, and comparison of information, selects the most important information describing the sustainability of technology, highlights the relationships between the technological aspect of sustainability and other sustainability dimensions, evaluates the technological processes of the corporate product in terms of sustainability, clarifies and presents arguments highlighting the importance of the technological aspect in sustainable business activity, rejects inappropriate arguments, identifies links between the arguments, and, basing on the information, proves and/or formulates anew some logical considerations to justify the full competency of the technological dimension in the sustainable development framework.

Analysis of Fatigue Strain, Fatigue Modulus and Fatigue Damage for the modeling of concrete plays a vital role in the evolution material behaviour which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature. In this paper, the Level-S nonlinear fatigue strain curve, fatigue modulus curve, residual strain curve of concrete in compression, tension, flexure and torsional fatigue loading were proposed using strain life approach. The parameters such as physical meaning, the ranges, and the impact on the shape of the curve were discussed. Then, the evolution model of fatigue modulus was established based on the fatigue strain evolution model, fatigue modulus evaluation model, residual strain evaluation model, secondary strain evaluation model. The hypothesis of fatigue modulus is inversely related with the fatigue strain amplitude. The fatigue evolution of concrete damages the bond between material grains, changed the orientation of structure of molecules and affects the elastic properties resulting in the reduction of material stiffness and modulus by utilizing strain life analysis, regarding stiffness degradation and inelastic deformation by formation of microcracking, macro cracking, cracking which is heterogeneous and anisotropic in nature . This paper presents the Fatigue Strain Life Model and analyses of fatigue strain, fatigue modulus and damage parameters of concrete which is capable of predicting stiffness degradation, inelastic deformation, strength reduction under fatigue loading. Hence, the obtainable results were compared with experimental results for the validation of the proposed model.

Modern medicine adopted four presumptions when it evolved from ancient experienced-based mind-body medicine. To understand its failure in finding cures for chronic diseases, we examined four presumptions, and found that statistical population of health properties does not exist for most research purposes, mathematical models are misused to model intensive properties, synthetic drugs are inherently more dangerous than nature-made medicines under their respective application conditions, and reductionist treatments are inferior and inherently dangerous. We found that clinical trials are valid only for research where treatment effect is much stronger than the total effects of all interfering or co-causal factors or errors introduced by misused mathematical models can be tolerated. In all other situations, clinical trials introduce excessive errors and fail to detect treatment effects, or produce biased, incorrect or wrong results. We further found that chronic diseases are manifestation of small departures in multiple process attributes in distinctive personal biological pathways networks, that modern medicine lacks required accuracy for accurately characterizing chronic diseases, and that reductionist treatments are good at controlling symptoms and safe for short term uses. For all stated reasons, as long as modern medicine continues relying on the flawed presumptions, it can never find predictable cures for chronic diseases. By implication, predictable cures to chronic diseases are adjustments to lifestyle, dietary, emotional, and environmental factors to slowly correct departures in process attributes responsible for chronic diseases.

Plug and abandonment (P&amp;A) operations demand valuable time and resources with operational procedures and materials to establish the well barrier element. This study proposes the use of a water-based fluid as a liquid well barrier element for temporary abandonment, based on esti-mates of its lifespan and survival probability on downhole conditions acquired through acceler-ated life tests. For that, the water-based formulation was tested and exposed to 95, 110, 140 and 150°C, for time intervals ranging from 1 to 10 days. After temperature exposure, the fluid prop-erties were verified and failure was detected by accounting for any deterioration in rheological parameters and/or a substantial increase in filtrate volume. Statistical analysis of failure data was performed in R software using Weibull Model, and fluid average lifespan and survival probability were estimated for P&amp;A temperatures. The results obtained demonstrates that the degradation of the fluid only was observed for 140 and 150°C and is mostly related to the CMC deterioration. The reliability metrics shows that until 80°C the fluid is a promising alternative for temporary abandonment, with no need of monitoring. For higher downhole temperatures, theses metrics should be considered to define the maximum time of operation and requirements for monitoring management in the operation design.

In today's business world, many companies have realized that consumer feedback evaluations play a crucial part in shaping the company's future activities. The hotel and tourism industries are well-known examples where the user feedback has become crucial. Even though most accommodations want their clients to express their opinions about their services, these reviews are nevertheless carefully reviewed by them. This manual approach is time demanding and error prone, the level of expertise of the individual analyzing the evaluations determines the quality of the manual analysis. This research focuses on the development of a tool-based support system that analyzes text-based customer evaluations and then highlights the maintenance issues identified in the reviews, removing the need to manually evaluate and analyze the customer reviews. The process includes data preparation, sentiment analysis, and a fully trained deep learning model to extract critical insights. Using sentiment analysis techniques after data preprocessing and trained deep learning model, an accuracy of 96% was achieved, and this paper discusses how this technology helps to meet the needs of accommodation management by completing activities efficiently. This might save management time and helps to save money without losing clients, allowing them to enhance their additional sales.

The evaluation of tourism sustainability has become of paramount importance for researchers and decision-makers to better protect tourist destinations, especially with the continuous increase in the number of tourists and visitors that alter the natural components of the environment and degrade ecosystems. Therefore, the use of geographical data is of great significance, particularly in environmental monitoring and land management, due to its ease of use and availability. However, calculating composite indices for sustainability involves several steps and requires a basic understanding of existing models. This article describes the development and design of a package of plugins in QGIS that serves as an easy-to-use tool for processing and automatically calculating economic, environmental, social indices, and the overall index of tourist sustainability. These plugins have been built in Python and designed as QGIS software plugins.

We propose that the coexistence of gapless Fermi arcs with the metal-insulator crossover of in-plane resistivity in strongly underdoped cuprates can be explained by the FL* fractionalized Fermi liquid nature of these systems and it is not due simply to disorder effects. The particle excitations of this FL* system derived from variants of the t-J model are: the gapless holon carrying charge with small Fermi momentum proportional to the doping, the gapful spinon carrying spin 1/2, gauge fluctuations coupling them and the hole as a spinon-holon bound state or resonance due to gauge binding with a Fermi surface respecting the topological Luttinger theorem. In our proposal Fermi arcs are determined by the hole resonance, whereas the metal-insulator crossover is dominated by spinon-spinon (with subleading holon-holon) gauge interactions and this dichotomy is able to explain their coexistence.

In this study, a novel method is proposed to estimate surface-spectral reflectance from camera responses that combines model-based and training-based approaches. An imaging system is modeled using the spectral sensitivity functions of an RGB camera, spectral power distributions of multiple light sources, unknown surface-spectral reflectance, additive noise, and a gain parameter. The estimation procedure comprises two main stages: (1) selecting the local optimal reflectance dataset from a reflectance database and (2) determining the best estimate by applying a neural network to the local optimal dataset only. In stage (1), the camera responses are predicted for the respective reflectances in the database, and the optimal candidates are selected in the order of lowest prediction error. In stage (2), most reflectance training data are obtained by a convex linear combination of local optimal data using weighting coefficients based on random numbers. A feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer is used to map the observation space onto the spectral reflectance space. In addition, the reflectance estimation is repeated by generating multiple sets of random numbers, and the median of a set of estimated reflectances is determined as the final estimate of the reflectance. Experimental results show that the estimation accuracies exceed those of other methods.

The task of automatically and intelligently diagnosing faults in marine equipment is of great significance due to the numerous duties that shipboard professionals must handle. Incorporating automated and intelligent systems on ships allows for more efficient equipment monitoring and better decision-making. This approach has attracted considerable interest in both academia and industry because of its potential for economic savings and improved safety. Several fault diagnosis methods are documented in the literature, often involving mathematical and control theory models. However, due to the inherent complexity of some processes, not all characteristics are precisely known, making mathematical modeling highly challenging. As a result, fault diagnosis often depends on data or heuristic information. Fuzzy logic theory is particularly well-suited for processing this type of information. Therefore, this paper employs fuzzy models to diagnose faults in a marine pneumatic servo-actuated valve. The proposed fault diagnosis framework analyzes the discrepancy signals between the outputs of the fuzzy models and the actual process outputs. These discrepancies, known as residuals, help in detecting and isolating equipment faults. The fault isolation process uses an intelligent decision-making approach to determine the specific fault in the system. This method is applied to diagnose abrupt faults in a marine pneumatic servo-actuated valve.

System-of-systems (SoS) evolution is a complex and unpredictable process. Although various principles to facilitate collaborative SoS evolution have been proposed, there is a lack of experimental data validating their effectiveness. To address these issues, we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) for SoS evolution in the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) , serving as a quantitative analysis tool for SoS research. By integrating multiple complex and rational behaviors of individuals, we aim to simulate real-world scenarios as accurately as possible. To simulate the SoS evolution process, our model employs multiple agents with autonomous interactions and incorporates external environmental variables. Furthermore, we propose three evaluation metrics: evolutionary time, degree of variation, and evolutionary cost, to assess the performance of SoS evolution. Our study demonstrates that enhanced information transparency significantly improves the evolutionary performance of distributed SoS. Conversely, the adoption of uniform standards only brings limited performance enhancement to distributed SoSs. Although our proposed model has limitations, it stands out from other approaches that utilize Agent-Based Modeling to analyze SoS theories. Our model focuses on realistic problem contexts and simulates realistic interaction behaviors. This study enhances the comprehension of SoS evolution processes and provides valuable insights for the formulation of effective evolutionary strategies.

Plantation-based farmer cooperatives play an important role in promoting agricultural modernization and increasing farmer income, and the management of business risks of such cooperatives not only influences the development of the cooperatives themselves, but also concerns the interests of farmers. Based on the survey data of 226 sample cooperatives from Guizhou province, this article uses factor analysis to measure business risks of plantation-based farmer cooperatives and carries out empirical tests on influence factors of business risks through structural equation model. According to the research results, the ordering of business risks of plantation-based farmer cooperative based on their significance is as follows: market risk > policy risk > natural risk > technical risk > management risk. Influence factors including policy environment, economic environment, social service environment, technical environment, resource endowment of the cooperative and manager characteristics have significant positive influence on the cooperative, with economic environment and manager characteristics generating relatively stronger influence and social service environment generating relatively weaker influence. Through this research, several policy implications on driving high-quality development of plantation-based farmer cooperative are made, including specifying supportive policies of plantation-based farmer cooperative, improving economic environment of agricultural market, upgrading agricultural infrastructure, depending reform of land transfer system, and enhancing internal management of the cooperative.

In this research, we present the first steps taken towards a data-driven agent-based model (ABM) specifically designed for simulating infectious disease dynamics in Greece. Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, this research holds significant importance as it can offer valuable insights into disease transmission patterns and assist in devising effective intervention strategies. To the best of our knowledge, no similar study has been conducted in Greece. We constructed a prototype ABM that utilizes publicly accessible data to accurately represent the complex interactions and dynamics of disease spread in the Greek population. By incorporating demographic information and behavioral patterns, our model captures the specific characteristics of Greece, enabling accurate and context-specific simulations. By using our proposed ABM, we aim to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding disease control and prevention. Through the use of simulations, policymakers have the opportunity to explore different scenarios and predict the possible results of various intervention measures. These may include strategies like testing approaches, contact tracing, vaccination campaigns, and social distancing measures. Through these simulations, policymakers can assess the effectiveness and feasibility of these interventions, leading to the development of well-informed strategies aimed at reducing the impact of infectious diseases on the Greek population. This study is an initial exploration toward understanding disease transmission patterns and a first step towards formulating effective intervention strategies for Greece.

Coseismic landslides pose significant threats, causing widespread destruction of buildings, roads, pipelines, and leading to numerous casualties. In recent years, the frequency of earthquakes has increased, prompting a growing interest in regional-scale assessment techniques for coseismic landslides. The infinite slope model proposed by Newmark is widely used to evaluate coseismic landslide hazard. However, the infinite slope model fails to reflect the impact of rock mass structure on the stability of slopes. This paper proposes a novel approach for mapping the hazards of coseismic landslides by considering the roughness of the potential slide surfaces in the inner slope. The proposed method is validated using data from the 2013 Lushan earthquake. The datasets, including geological units, peak ground acceleration (PGA), and high-resolution digital elevation models of topography, are rasterized at a grid spacing of 30 meters. They are then combined within an infinite slope model based on Newmark permanent-deformation analysis, enabling the estimation of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid area resulting from the Lushan earthquake. The modeled displacements are compared with the inventory of landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake, allowing the derivation of a confidence level function that relates predicted displacement to the spatial variation of coseismic landslides. Ultimately, a hazard map of coseismic landslides is generated based on the established confidence level function. This map serves as a valuable tool for predicting the hazard zone of seismic regions and offers essential insights for decision-making related to infrastructure development and post-earthquake construction.

The task of unsupervised anomalous sound detection (ASD) is challenging for detecting anomalous sounds from a large audio database without any annotated anomalous training data. Many unsupervised methods were proposed, but previous works have confirmed that the classification-based models far exceeds the unsupervised models in ASD. In this paper, we adopt two classification-based anomaly detection models: (1) Outlier classifier is to distinguish anomalous sounds or outliers from the normal; (2) ID classifier identifies anomalies using both the confidence of classification and the similarity of hidden embeddings. We conduct experiments in task 2 of DCASE 2020 challenge, and our ensemble method achieves an averaged area under the curve (AUC) of 95.82% and averaged partial AUC (pAUC) of 92.32%, which outperforms the state-of-the-art models.

This study examined the effect of an educational hybrid physical education (PE) intervention on cognitive performance and academic achievement in adolescents. A 9-month group-randomized controlled trial was conducted in 150 participants (age: 14.63 ± 1.38) allocated into control group (CG, n = 37) and experimental group (EG, n = 113). Inhibition, verbal fluency, planning and academic achievement were assessed. Significant differences were observed in the post-test for cognitive inhibition, verbal fluency in animals, and the average from verbal fluency in favour of the EG. With regard to the intervention, verbal fluency in animals, verbal fluency in vegetables, the average of verbal fluency, cognitive inhibition, language, the average of all subjects, the average of all subjects except PE, and the average from the core subjects) increased significantly in the EG. The last five variables (the academic ones and cognitive inhibition) also increased in the CG, in addition to mathematics. This study contributes to the knowledge by suggesting that both methodologies produced improvements in the measured variables, but the use of a hybrid program based on TPSR and gamification strategies produce improvements in cognitive performance, specifically through the cognitive inhibition and verbal fluency.

Significant efforts in the past decades to teach evidence-based practice (EBP) implementation has emphasized increasing knowledge of EBP and developing interventions to support adoption to practice. These efforts have resulted in only limited sustained improvements in the daily use of evidence-based interventions in clinical practice in most health professions. Many new interven-tions with limited evidence of effectiveness are readily adopted each year - indicating openness to change is not the problem. The selection of an intervention is the outcome of an elaborate and complex cognitive process which is shaped by how they represent the problem in their mind and is mostly invisible processes to others. Therefore, the complex thinking process which support appropriate adoption of interventions should be taught more explicitly. Making the process visible to clinicians increases the acquisition of the skills required to judiciously select one in-tervention over others. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the selection process and the critical analysis that is required to appropriately decide to trial or not trial new intervention strategies with patients.

Wetlands are among the most bio-diverse and highest productivity ecosystems on earth, making their monitoring a high priority to conservation, protection and management interests. Although visual interpretation of satellite images is generally precise for monitoring wetlands, recent works have emphasized computerized classification methods because of the reduction in analyst time. However, it is difficult to automatically identify wetland solely based on spectral characteristics due to the complexity of wetland ecosystems. The ability to extract wetland information rapidly and accurately is the basis and the key to wetland mapping at a large scale. Here we propose an operational method to map China wetlands based on Landsat TM data and ancillary data. On the basis of theoretical analysis of wetland automatic classification, we developed a revised multi-layer wetland classification scheme and a rule-based classification model. In the latter, supervised classification (SVM and decision tree) and unsupervised classification (ISODATA) methods were tested. Four Landsat TM images, representing various wetland eco-regions in China (i.e. the Sanjiang Plain in the northeast China, the North China Plain, the Zoige Plateau in the southwest China and the Pearl River Estuary in southeast China), were automatically classified. The overall classification accuracies were 86.57%, 96.00%, 84.51% and 88.30%, respectively, which we considered to be satisfactory accuracy. Our results indicate that issues such as the resolution of geographic data and the understanding of wetland samples should be carefully addressed in the future.

Today, there is a time series analysis that has gained significant popularity across various industries to provide effective solutions for any specific challenges. Artificial intelligence logic is generally used to solve time-series problems with the help of various frameworks that are available for the development of AI-based applications. Currently, there is a significant framework in Python that is driven by its comprehensive libraries and their practical implementations. Time series analysis can be built with the help of some specific models that give results to differentiate the efficiency and domains of great work. This paper focuses on three diverse libraries of Python to predict the Gulf stock exchange market. These libraries are prediction models that are helpful in predicting future values. These models utilized include SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), Neural Prophet Model, and Fb Prophet model. Each model is trained using the provided datasets, which are followed by evaluation parameters such as MSE, RMSE, recall, MDAPE, accuracy, precision, etc. The main purpose of using these three models for stock market prediction is to find the better-suited models. In the past few decades, the stock market industry has seemed to have promising growth after 2022 onwards. This paper will help us make a significant decision about model usage for addressing such complex challenges. Especially, the research findings indicate that all three models demonstrate in different domains. SARIMA can perform well in overall prediction tasks, while the Prophet model works great with smaller datasets that contain seasonality trends.