Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

In cricket, particularly the twenty20 format is most watched and loved by the people, where no one can guess who will win the match until the last ball of the last over. In India, The Indian Premier League (IPL) started in 2008 and now it is the most popular T20 league in the world. So we decided to develop a machine learning model for predicting the outcome of its matches. Winning in a Cricket Match depends on many key factors like a home ground advantage, past performances on that ground, records at the same venue, the overall experience of the players, record with a particular opposition, and the overall current form of the team and also the individual player. This paper briefs about the key factors that affect the result of the cricket match and the regression model that best fits this data and gives the best predictions. Cricket, the mainstream and widely played sport across India which has the most noteworthy fan base. Indian Premier League follows 20-20 format which is very unpredictable. IPL match predictor is a ML based prediction approach where the data sets and previous stats are trained in all dimensions covering all important factors such as: Toss, Home Ground, Captains, Favorite Players, Opposition Battle, Previous Stats etc, with each factor having different strength with the help of KNIME Tool and with the added intelligence of Naive Bayes network and Eulers strength calculation formula.

Members of the DUF34 (domain of unknown function 34) family, also known as the NIF3 protein superfamily, are ubiquitous across superkingdoms. Proteins of this family have been widely annotated as “GTP cyclohydrolase I type 2” through electronic propagation based on one study. Here, the annotation status of this protein family was examined through comprehensive literature review and integrative bioinformatic analyses that revealed varied pleiotropic associations and phenotypes. This analysis combined with functional complementation studies strongly challenges the current annotation and suggests that DUF34 family members may serve as metal ion insertases, chaperones, or metallocofactor maturases. This general molecular function could explain how DUF34 subgroups participate in highly diversified pathways such as cell differentiation, metal ion homeostasis, pathogen virulence, redox and universal stress responses.

Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are considered as promising alternatives to conventional antibiotics in order to overcome the growing problems of antibiotic resistance. Computational prediction approaches receive an increasing interest to identify and design the best candidate AMPs prior to the in-vitro tests. In this study, we focused on the linear cationic peptides with non-hemolytic activity, which are downloaded from the Database of Antimicrobial Activity and Structure of Peptides (DBAASP). Referring to the MIC (Minimum inhibition concentration) values, we have assigned a positive label to a peptide if it shows antimicrobial activity; otherwise the peptide is labeled as negative. Here, we focused on the peptides showing antimicrobial activity against Gram-negative and against Gram-positive bacteria separately, and we created two datasets accordingly. Ten different physico-chemical properties of the peptides are calculated and used as features in our study. Following data exploration and data preprocessing steps, a variety of classification algorithms are used with 100-fold Monte Carlo Cross Validation to build models and to predict the antimicrobial activity of the peptides. Among the generated models, Random Forest has resulted in the best performance metrics for both Gram-negative dataset (Accuracy: 0.98, Recall: 0.99, Specificity: 0.97, Precision: 0.97, AUC: 0.99, F1: 0.98) and Gram-positive dataset (Accuracy: 0.95, Recall: 0.95, Specificity: 0.95, Precision: 0.90, AUC: 0.97, F1: 0.92) after outlier elimination is applied. This prediction approach might be useful to evaluate the antibacterial potential of a candidate peptide sequence before moving to the experimental studies.

Predicting the popularity of posts on social networks has taken on significant importance in recent years, and several social media management tools now offer solutions to improve and optimize the quality of published content and to enhance the attractiveness of companies and organizations. Scientific research has recently moved in this direction, with the aim of exploiting advanced techniques such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, etc., to support such tools. In light of the above, in this work we aim to address the challenge of predicting the popularity of a future post on Instagram, by defining the problem as a classification task and by proposing an original approach based on Gradient Boosting and feature engineering, which led us to promising experimental results. The proposed approach exploits big data technologies for scalability and efficiency and is general enough to be applied to other social media as well.

Music is capable of conveying many emotions. The level and type of emotion of the music perceived by a listener, however, is highly subjective. In this study, we present the Music Emotion Recognition with Profile information dataset (MERP). This database was collected through Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) and features dynamical valence and arousal ratings of 54 selected full-length songs. The dataset contains music features, as well as user profile information of the annotators. The songs were selected from the Free Music Archive using an innovative method (a Triple Neural Network with the OpenSmile toolkit) to identify 50 songs with the most distinctive emotions. Specifically, the songs were chosen to fully cover the four quadrants of the valence arousal space. Four additional songs were selected from DEAM to act as a benchmark in this study and filter out low quality ratings. A total of 277 participants participated in annotating the dataset, and their demographic information, listening preferences, and musical background were recorded. We offer an extensive analysis of the resulting dataset, together with a baseline emotion prediction model based on a fully connected model and an LSTM model, for our newly proposed MERP dataset.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

Three-dimensional (3D) facies and petrophysical models were generated from previously published data of carbonate strata in the Dam Formation (eastern Saudi Arabia) to quantitatively investigate, describe, understand, model, and predict the permeability anisotropy of tidal flat carbonate within a sequence stratigraphic framework. The resulting 3D models were used to conduct fluid flow simulations to demonstrate how permeability anisotropy influences the production of hydrocarbons and ultimately affects decisions concerning future drilling in the exploration and development of carbonate reservoirs that have tidal flat strata. The constructed 3D facies model consists of four lithofacies associations, two of which were grain-dominated associations and two of which were mud-dominated associations. These lithofacies associations varied spatially in four reservoir zones (zones 1 to 4), which represent two fourth-order sequences in the uppermost part of the Dam Formation. Zones 1 and 3 consist of transgressive parasequences, and zones 2 and 4 consist of the regressive parasequences of these sequences. The 3D porosity and permeability models have a coherent match with the distribution of the lithofacies and the stratigraphic framework of the Dam Formation. The results suggested that the permeability anisotropy in zones 1 and 3 is controlled by the occurrence of the grain-dominated lithofacies associated with tidal flat channels. This lithofacies association overlies the sequence boundaries of sequences 1 and 3, forms reservoir bodies with relatively high permeability values, and is elongated perpendicular to the shoreline of the depositional environments. In contrast, permeability anisotropy in zones 2 and 4 is thought to be controlled by the occurrence of the grain-dominated lithofacies associated with the oolitic shoal. This lithofacies association overlies the maximum flooding surface of sequences 2 and 4, forms reservoir bodies with relatively high permeability values, and is elongated parallel to the shoreline of the depositional environments. Fluid flow simulation results suggested that the trend in hydrocarbon production from the constructed 3D models depends on permeability anisotropy in each reservoir zone. Thus, recognizing trends in permeability anisotropy, which might be predicted using sequences stratigraphy, could help to identify potential areas for future drilling.

Despite effective vaccines, yellow fever outbreaks persist, increasing the urgency to find antivirals for patient treatment. This study aimed to discover compounds with potential antiviral properties against the wild-type yellow fever virus (wt-YFV) in Hippeastrum puniceum, of the Amaryllidaceae family, through bioassay-guided fractionation of the crude bulb extract using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled with high-resolution ESI-QTOF mass spectrometry and subsequent analysis of the pharmacokinetic and toxicological properties (ADMET) of the annotated compounds. In the active fractions against wt-YFV, six alkaloids were proposed such as bulbisine, cathinone, trigonelline, tetrahydroharman-3-carboxylic acid, and 2,7-dimethoxyhomolycorine (or 3-O-acetylnarcissidine). Co-occurring in these fractions were the amino acids arginine, asparagine, tryptophan, and glutamic acid. In silico ADMET analysis of the alkaloids predicted good absorption, distribution, excretion, favorable metabolization profiles, and non-mutagenic toxicity, indicating their potential for drug development. These findings justify further in vitro assessment of the compounds against YFV and in vivo testing in animal models. This strategy seems to be an efficient approach for discovering antiviral compounds against YFV. Such discoveries hold promise not only in combating YFV but also in addressing a spectrum of other flaviviruses.

Learning systems have been very focused on creating models that are capable of obtaining the best results in error metrics. Recently, the focus has shifted to improvement in order to interpret and explain their results. The need for interpretation is greater when these models are used to support decision making. In some areas this becomes an indispensable requirement, such as in medicine. This paper focuses on the prediction of cardiovascular disease by analyzing the well-known Statlog (Heart) Data Set from the UCI’s Automated Learning Repository. This study will analyze the cost of making predictions easier to interpret by reducing the number of features that explain the classification of health status versus the cost in accuracy. It will be analyzed on a large set of classification techniques and performance metrics. Demonstrating that it is possible to make explainable and reliable models that have a good commitment to predictive performance.

: Border management serves as a crucial control checkpoint for governments to regulate the quality and safety of imported food. In 2020, the ensemble learning prediction model EL V.1 was introduced to Taiwan's border food management. This model primarily assesses the risk of imported food by combining five algorithms to determine whether quality sampling should be performed on imported food at the border. In this study, a second-generation ensemble learning prediction model, EL V.2, was developed based on seven algorithms to enhance the "detection rate of unqualified cases" and improve the robustness of the model. The chi-square test was employed to compare the efficacy of "pre-launch (2019) random sampling inspection" and "post-launch (2020–2022) model prediction sampling inspection". For cases recommended for inspection by the ensemble learning model and subsequently inspected, the unqualified rates were 5.10%, 6.36%, and 4.39% in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, which were significantly higher (p=0.000***) compared with the random sampling rate of 2.09% in 2019. The prediction indices established by the confusion matrix were used to further evaluate the prediction effects of EL V.1 and EL V.2, and the EL V.2 model exhibited superior predictive performance compared with EL V.1, and both models outperformed random sampling.

Buffalo are silent breeders, therefore detecting estrus is a serious challenge. There is a rising need for sensitive and precise biomarkers in this scenario. Recent research on miRNA has demon-strated the importance of these molecules as biomarkers. Though there have been miRNA studies in saliva during the estrous cycle, there have been few miRNA research in blood samples. The current study was designed to look at blood miRNAs during the oestrous cycle in heifers (n=5) to address the issue of silent estrus. On the day of estrus and diestrus, blood samples from 60 heifers were obtained and pooled into (n=5) separate samples. Ultrasonography and progesterone assay was performed to confirm estrus. Then, employing particular miRNA adapters, small RNA se-quencing of miRNA was performed using the Illumina Miseq 2500. The UEA sRNA bioinfor-matics workbench identified 94 substantially differently expressed miRNAs (p>0.05) from these data. In estrus, 63 miRNA were upregulated and 31 miRNA were downregulated. When fold change was increased to (log2foldchange >1; q value less than 0.05), 25 miRNAs were elevated during estrus. miR-497, miR-582, miR-10174, miR-23, miR-223, miR-1296 were upregulated, whereas miR-10167, 671, 1246,122 were downregulated. miR-497 is unusually elevated (log2 foldchange>5) when compared to another miRNA (log2 foldchange >5) miRNet 2.0, Cytoscape, and MIENTURNET network software found that miR-497 has more degree centrality, above 60; it is associated with more than 60 nodes, followed by miR-93

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often suffer from acute exacerbations. Our objective was to describe recurrent exacerbations in a GP based Swiss COPD cohort, and develop a statistical model for predicting exacerbation. Methods: In a questionnaire-based COPD cohort, demographic and medical data were recorded for 24 months. Data set was split into training (75%) and validation (25%) datasets. A negative binomial regression model was developed using the training dataset to predict the exacerbation rate within 1 year. An exacerbation prediction model was developed, and the overall performance was validated. A nomogram was created to facilitate the clinical use of the model. Results: Of the 229 COPD patients analyzed, 77% of patients had no exacerbation during the follow-up. The best subset in the training dataset found that lower forced expiratory volume, high scores on the MRC dyspnoea scale, exacerbation history, being on combination therapy of LABA+ICS or LAMA+LABA at baseline were associated with a higher rate of exacerbation. When validated, the area-under-curve (AUC) was 0.75 for one or more exacerbations. Calibration was accurate (predicted 0.34 exacerbations vs observed 0.28 exacerbations). Conclusion: Nomograms built from these models can assist clinicians in the decision-making process of their COPD care.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the second most common cancer of the urinary system. The current therapeutic strategies are based on partial or total nephrectomy and/or targeted therapies based on immune checkpoint inhibitors to which patients are often refractory. Preventive and screening strategies are not existing and the few available biomarkers for RCC are characterized by the lack of sensitivity, outlining the need of novel noninvasive and sensitive biomarkers for an early diag-nosis and a better disease monitoring. Blood liquid biopsy (LB) is a non- or minimally invasive procedure for a more representative view of tumor heterogeneity than the tissue biopsy, poten-tially allowing real-time monitoring of cancer evolution. Growing interest is focused on the extra-cellular vesicles (EVs) secreted by either healthy or tumoral cells and recovered in a variety of bio-logical matrices, blood included. EVs are involved in cell-to-cell crosstalk transferring their mRNAs, miRNAs, and proteins content. In particular, transferred miRNAs may regulate the tu-morigenesis and proliferation also impacting on resistance to apoptosis, thus representing poten-tial useful biomarkers. Here we present the latest efforts in the identification of circulating miR-NAs in blood samples, focusing on the potential use of EV derived miRNAs as RCC diagnostic, prognostic markers.

This study was undertaken to forecast waste generation rates of accommodation sector of North Cyprus as a case. Three predictor models including multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and central composite design (CCD) were applied to predict the waste generation rate during the lean and peak seasons. ANN showed highest prediction performance, specifically, lowest values of the standard error of prediction (SEP = 2.153), mean absolute error (MAE=1.378) and highest R2 value (0.998) confirmed the accuracy of the model. The analysed wastes were categorised into recyclable, general waste and food residues. The authors estimated the total waste generated during the lean season as 2010.5 kg/day, in which large-sized hotel accounted for largest fraction (66.7%), followed by the medium hotels (19.4%) and guesthouse accounted for smallest part (2.6%). During the peak season, about 49.6% increases in the waste generation rates were obtained. Interestingly, 45% of the wastes were generated by the British tourists while the least waste was generated by African tourists (7.5%). The ANN predicted that the small and large hotels would produce 5.45 and 22.24 tons of waste by the year 2020, respectively. The findings herein are promising and useful in establishing a sustainable waste management system.

A correctly obtained Land-use/land-cover (LULC) prediction map is essential to under-standing and assessing future patterns. In the study, the LULC map of Urmia/Iran in 2030 was produced using two different prediction methods CA-Markov and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In general, the study followed a methodology consisting of three steps. In the first steps, Landsat satellite images acquired in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with maximum likelihood algorithm and LULC maps were prepared for each year. In the second stage, to investigate the LULC prediction methods' validation (CA-Markov and ANN) the LULC prediction map of 2020 was produced using the LULC map of 2000 and 2010; In this step, the predicted LULC map of 2020 and the actual LULC map of 2020 were evaluated by correctness, completeness and quality indexes. Finally, The LULC map for 2030 was prepared using all two algorithms and the change map was extracted. The results show that the area of soil and vegetation decreased, and built-up regions increased during the research period. The methods validation results show that the two algorithms are much closer to each other. Nevertheless, in general, ANN has the highest completeness (96.21%) and quality (93.8%) and CA-Markov the most correctness (96.47). This study shows that the CA-Markov algorithm is most successful in predicting the future that had larger areas and a higher percentage in the region (urban and vegetation cover) and the ANN algorithm in predicting phenomena that had smaller levels with fewer percentages (soil and rock).

The objective of the present study is to isolate phages targeting multidrug resistant (MDR), extended spectrum beta lactamase (ESBL) positive clinical isolate of E. coli ( U1007), sequence and analyze the phage genome and use machine learning tools to predict host cell surface receptor and finally evaluate the efficiency of monophage and phage cocktail in vitro and in vivo in a zebrafish model. Phage specific for E. coli U1007 was isolated from Ganges River (designated as U1G), Cuoom River (designated as CR) and Hospital waste water (designated as M phage). The obtained phages were triple purified and enriched. U1G phages had a greater burst size of 124 PFU/cell and a latent time of 25 min.M phage had a burst size of 150 PFU/cell with a shortlatent time of 20min. Similarly CR phage has a short latent 20 min and a burst size of 115 PFU/cell. Based on capsid architecture, U1G phage resembles Podoviridae, CR phage is structurally similar to Myoviridae and M phage has morphology that resembles Siphoviridae. Genome sequencing and analysis revealed that the size of the U1G phage genome is 73275 bp Whereas that of CR phage and M phage are 45236 bp and 45294 bp, respectively. All three genomes were marked by the absence of genes encoding tRNA sequence, antibiotic resistant or virulent genes. A machine learning (ML) based multi-class classification model using algorithms such as Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were employed to predict the host receptor targeted by all 3 phages and the best performing algorithm Random Forest predicted LPS O antigen , LamB or OmpC for U1G FhuA, OmpC for CR phage and FhuA, LamB, TonB or OmpF for the M phage as the host receptor targeted by the receptor binding protein (RBP) of the phages. In vitro time kill assay showed that treatment with monophages alone and along with colistin resulted in regrowth whereas phage combinations significantly reduced the regrowth and by 24h the phage cocktail along with colistin produced a significant 3 log declinein cell counts relative to the untreated control. In vivo intramuscular infection study in zebrafish showed that phages were non toxic and a cocktail of dual (U1G +M) phage along with colsitin resulted in a significant 3.5 log decline in cell counts whereas triple phage combination along with colistin resulted in 3 log decline in cell counts probably due to host receptor competition. Our study highlights the potential of phage cocktail therapy in mitigating MDR clinical isolate of E. coli in vitro and in vivo.

1) Background: The screening of preeclampsia (PE) and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) represents a constant challenge for obstetricians. The aim of this study was to determine and compare the predictive performance of 4 machine learning-based algorithms for the prediction of PE, IUGR, and their association in a cohort of singleton pregnancies; (2) Methods This prospective study was conducted at a tertiary maternity hospital in Romania, and included 210 pregnancies that underwent first trimester screening. We included clinical and paraclinical data into 4 machine learning-based algorithms decision tree (DT), naïve Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF), and calculated their predictive performance; (3) Results: RF performed the best when used to predict PE, IUGR, and its subtypes, as well as the association between PE and IUGR. The overall predictive performance of DT for all these disorders was inferior to RF, NB, and SVM. Both SVM and NB had similar accuracy for the prediction of PE, while NB performed better than SVM for the prediction of IUGR; (4) Conclusions: Machine-learning-based algorithms could be useful for the prediction of ischemic placental disease and need to be validated on large cohorts of patients.

Different process parameters can alter the temperature during machining. Consequently, selecting process parameters that lead to a desirable cutting temperature would help to increase the tool life, decrease the tensile residual stress, and controls the microstructure evolution of the workpiece. An inverse computational methodology is proposed to design the process parameters for specific cutting temperature. A physics-based analytical model is used to predict the temperature induced by cutting forces. To calculate the temperature induced by the deformation in the shear zone, a moving point heat source approach is used. The shear deformation and chip formation model is implemented to calculate machining forces as functions of process parameters, material properties, and etc. The proposed model uses the analytical model to predict the cutting temperatures and applies a variance-based recursive method to guide the inverse analysis. In order to achieve the cutting process parameters, an iterative gradient search is used to adaptively approach the specific temperature by the optimization of process parameters such that an inverse reasoning can be achieved. Experimental data are used to illustrate the implementation and validate the viability of the computational methodology.

This study aims to focus on using the Volterra series and machine learning for forecasting random and chaotic wind speed regimes, since the calm weather is mostly noticed at the local site, making the dataset selection difficult. A novel method is proposed to predict Volterra kernels up to the third order, using a forward-back propagation neural network with 12-month measurements at Fujairah site (UAE). Both daily and monthly wind speed data sets are investigated for forecasting. The three dominant hourly and daily kernels are extracted for each day and each month. Predicted future Volterra kernels are estimated from past values using both statistical analysis and individual neuro networks for each of the Volterra kernel coefficients. Due to the random nature of wind speed at the local site, a two-layer with 4 neurons per layer neuro network is used to locate the most variable and intense speed during 8-hours in the day. Forecasted wind speed is determined with errors arising from different sources such as the utilization of only 3rd-order Volterra kernels and the difficulty of machine training of the employed shallow network. Nevertheless, this work depicts a useful algorithm to forecast chaotic and random wind speed regimes. Computational time is a trade of the complexity of Volterra mathematical analysis.

Energy harvesting from wind turbines has been explored by researchers for more than a century from conventional turbines up to the latest bladeless turbines. Amongst these bladeless turbines, vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBT) harvests energy from oscillation of a turbine body. Due to the novelty of this science and the widespread researches around the world, one of the most important issues is to optimize and predict produced power. To enhance the produced output electrical power of VBT, the fluid-solid interactions (FSI) were analyzed to collect a dataset for predicting procedure. Long short-term memory (LSTM) method has been used to predict the produced power of VBT from the collected data. The reason of choosing LSTM from various artificial neural network methods is that the parameters of VBT study are all time- dependent and the LSTM is one of the most accruable algorithms for predicting time series data. In order to find the relationship between the parameter and the variables used in this research, a correlation matrix was presented. According to the value of 0.3 for the root mean square error (RMSE), a comparative analysis between the simulation results and its prediction shows that the LSTM method is very accurate for these types of research. Furthermore, the LSTM method has significantly reduced the computation time so that the prediction time of desired values has been reduced from an average of 2 and a half hours to two minutes. Also, one of the most important achievements of this study is to suggest a mathematical relation of VBT output power which helps to extend it in a different size of VBT with a high range of parameter variations.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

While the simple model of the total atmospheric carbon sink effect as a linear function of concentration has provided excellent prediction results, several problems remained to be investigated and solved. The most obvious open issue is the correct treatment of land use change emssions. It turns out that the model improves by mostly neglecting them after 1959. This effectively implies that land use change emissions have been constant and small since then. The key investigation starts with the observation, that the total carbon sink has a short term component which be explained by temperature changes commonly known as El Nin˜o. The apparent paradox is analysed and explained, why contrary to the short term changes no temperature caused trend can be detected in the model, despite the fact that several contributing processes exhibit temperature dependency. The result of this analysis leads to the model extension, where the total effect of sinks and natural emissions are a linear function of concentration and temperature. This model not only explains current measurements but also paleo climate from ice-core time series.

The goal was to create a novel machine learning (ML) model which can predict the magnitude and direction of pubertal mandibular growth in males with Class II malocclusion. Lateral cephalometric radiographs of 123 males at three time points (T1: 12, T2: 14, T3: 16 years old) were collected from an online database of longitudinal growth studies. Each radiograph was traced, and 7 different ML models were trained using 38 data points obtained from 92 subjects. 31 subjects were used as a test group, to predict post-pubertal mandibular length and Y-axis using input data from T1 and T2 combined (2-year prediction), and T1 alone (4-year prediction). Mean absolute errors (MAEs) were used to evaluate the accuracy of each model. For all ML methods tested using the 2-year prediction, the MAEs for post-pubertal mandibular length ranged from 2.11-6.07mm and 0.85-2.74° for the Y-axis. For all ML methods tested with 4-year prediction, the MAEs for post-pubertal mandibular length ranged from 2.32-5.28 mm and 1.25-1.72° for the Y-axis. Besides its initial length, the most predictive factors for mandibular length were found to be chronological age, upper and lower face heights, upper and lower incisor positions and inclinations. For the Y-axis, the most predictive factors were found to be Y-axis at earlier time points, SN-MP, SN-Pog, SNB and SNA. Whilst the potential of ML techniques to accurately forecast future mandibular growth in Class II cases is promising, a requirement for more substantial sample sizes exists to further enhance the precision of these predictions.

Photovoltaic(PV) power generation is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Accurate prediction of PV power generation plays a crucial role in grid connection as well as the operation and scheduling of power plants. To predict the PV power combination model, this paper suggests a method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Networks with Exogenous Input (NARXNN), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithms. To attempt to reduce the non-smoothness of PV power, the weather variable features with the greatest effect on PV power are first identified by correlation analysis. Following this, the PV power modal decomposition is split and reorganized into a new feature matrix. Finally， a NARX is used to obtain preliminary PV power components and residual vector features， and the PV power is predicted by combining three models of LightGBM， LSTM, and NARX and then the final prediction results are obtained by combining the PV power prediction results using error inverse method weighted optimization. The prediction results demonstrate that the model put forth in this paper outperforms those of other models and validate the model's validity by utilizing real measurement data from Andre Agassi College in the United States.

South Asian countries experience frequent drought incidents recently, and due to this reason, many scientific studies were carried to explore the drought in South Asia. In this context, we review scientific studies related to drought in South Asia. The study initially identifies the importance of drought-related studies and discusses drought types for South Asian regions. The representative examples of drought events, severity, frequency, and duration in South Asian countries are identified. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was mostly adopted in South Asian countries to quantify and monitor droughts. Nevertheless, the absence of drought quantification studies in Bhutan and Maldives is of great concern. Future studies to generate a combined drought severity map for the South Asian region are required. Moreover, the drought prediction and projection in the regions is rarely studied. Further, the teleconnection between drought and large-scale atmospheric circulations in the South Asian area has not been discussed in detail in the most scientific literature. Therefore, as a take-home message, there is an urgent need for scientific studies related to drought quantification for some regions in South Asia, prediction and projection of drought for an individual country (or as a region), and drought teleconnection to atmospheric circulation.

The primary goal of picture compression is to reduce the amount of unused image data while still storing or transmitting it in a format that is appropriate. The compression of raw binary data is quite different from the compression of a picture, and these differences may be rather substantial. In light of this, compression is often regarded as an essential technique for the purposes of both data storage an d transmission in order to mitigate the excessive amounts of data that are generated by these images. In order to transmit enormous datasets, particularly for the purposes of telemedicine and teleradiology, one needs a significant amount of storage capacity as well as an expansive network. As a result, compression is an important aspect of medical imaging. In addition to the importance of compression, the quality of the photos themselves is also an essential factor in the success of analysis. In addition to this, the amount of time necessary to compress the photographs before sending them should be reduced.

Safety is very important in aviation since a loss of safety frequently results in both fatalities and financially damaging situations that are typically unrecoverable. Thus, achieving safety as much as possible is the primary goal of practically all aviation technology work. In this study, an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)-based classifier is created to estimate the fault risk factor of airplanes. Five categories of real fleet data belonging to structure, electrical, avionic, motor systems, and incident statistics of the planes have been used for classifier development. A risk factor determination for each plane is the output of the developed intelligent classifier, and it can be used to identify general overhaul candidate planes and stop defects and crashes before they happen. The obtained results show that using ANFIS provides a great capability in processing many inputs and outputs depending on different types and classes in the aviation industry and thus predicting the failure risk of the airplane efficiently.

Real estate has the dual characteristics of consumption and investment. Under the inherent concept of "where there is land, there is wealth", real estate has become the investment target of the main asset. In addition to the supply and demand of the market will affect the price of real estate, many general economic factors will also have a certain impact on the price of real estate. This paper pays a special focus on the effects of MRT on housing prices, finding the closer a house is to an MRT station, the higher its price. In addition, convenience stores are very popularized, and this research report is also interested in whether the number of convenience stores within walking distance will affect the house price. In a word, these two factors do affect housing prices significantly.

Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that a priori probability predictions based on pattern complexities can be made in a broad class of input-output maps. These algorithmic probability predictions do not depend on a detailed knowledge of how output patterns were produced, or historical statistical data. Although quantitatively fairly accurate, a main weakness of these predictions is that they are given as an upper bound on the probability of a pattern, but many low complexity, low probability patterns occur, for which the upper bound has little predictive value. Here we study this low complexity, low probability phenomenon by looking at example maps, namely a finite state transducer, natural time series data, RNA molecule structures, and polynomial curves. Some mechanisms causing low complexity, low probability behaviour are identified, and we argue this behaviour should be assumed as a default in the real world algorithmic probability studies. Additionally, we examine some applications of algorithmic probability and discuss some implications of low complexity, low probability patterns for several research areas including simplicity in physics and biology, a priori probability predictions, Solomonoff induction and Occam's razor, machine learning, and password guessing.

Reliability assessment is an important component and tool used for process plants since the facility consists of many loops and instruments attached and operates based on each other availability, thus it requires a statistical method to visualize the reliability. The paper focuses on reliability assessment and prediction based on available statistical models such as normal, log-normal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. This paper also visualizes, which model fits best for assessment and prediction and also considers failure modes caused during a simulation mode process control operation. A simulation model is designed in this paper to observe the failure of the control valve causing stiction to visualize the failure modes and predict the best-fit model for reliability assessment.

Predicting copper price is essential for making decisions that can affect companies and governments dependent on the copper mining industry. Copper prices follow a time series that is non-linear, non-stationary, and which have periods that change as a result of potential growth, cyclical fluctuation and errors. Sometimes the trend and cyclical components together are referred to as a trend-cycle. In order to make predictions, it is necessary to consider the different characteristics of trend-cycle. In this paper, we study a copper price prediction method using Support Vector Regression. This work explores the potential of the Support Vector Regression with external recurrences to make predictions at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days into the future in the copper closing price at the London Metal Exchanges. The best model for each forecast interval is performed using a grid search and balanced cross-validation. In experiments on real data-sets, our results obtained indicate that the parameters (C, ε, γ) of the model Support Vector Regression do not differ between the different prediction intervals. Additionally, the amount of preceding values used to make the estimates does not vary according to the predicted interval. Results show that the support vector regression model has a lower prediction error and is more robust. Our results show that the presented model is able to predict copper price volatilities near reality, being the RMSE equal or less than the 2.2% for prediction periods of 5 and 10 days.

Abstract: Objective: This study aimed to estimate adherence to methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and identify specific nonadherence risk factors. Methods: A cross-sectional study included 111 patients (age mean 56.2±10.6 years, 78.4% female, and disease duration mean 6 (3-13) years). Three adherence self-assessment questionnaires were used: the Compli-ance-Questionnaire-Rheumatology (CQR19), the Medication Adherence Reports Scale (MARS-5), and the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). We also collected demographic data, disease and treatment characteristics, and anxiety/depression estimation results (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale- HADS). Results: Adherence was identified in 48.6% of patients (COR19), 70.3% (MARS-5), and 82.9% of patients in the VAS questionnaire. All three questionnaires displayed a significant positive mutual correlation: CQR19 with MARS-5 and VAS (r =0.364, r=0.329 respectively, p<0.001 for both), between VAS and MARS-5 score (r=0.496, p<0.001). A significant positive prediction was shown for urban residence (0.347 (0.134-0.901), p=0.030), using the MARS-5 scale, female sex (0.264 (0.095-0.730), p=0.010) according to CQR19 and for a dose of methotrexate (0.881 (0.783-0.992), p=0.036) in VAS scale, while negative prediction were shown for comorbidity number (3.062 (1.057-8.874), p=0.039), and depression (1.142 (1.010-1.293), p=0.035) using MARS-5 scale and for older age (1.041 (1.003-1.081), p=0.034) according to CQR19. The use of steroids was a significant positive predictor in all three questionnaires and remained an independent predictor for metho-trexate adherence in multivariant logistic regression. Conclusion: We showed nonadherence to methotrexate in a significant number of patients using all three questionnaires. Concomitant steroid therapy emerged as an independent positive predictor for adherence.

The incidence of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) in the Arab world, particularly, oil and gas rich Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) countries has more than doubled in the last twenty years. Therefore, there is a dire need for careful systematic familial cohort studies, especially in high-risk populations. Several immunogenetic factors affect the pathogenesis of the disease. Genes in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) account for the major genetic susceptibility to the disease. The triggering agents initiate disease onset by destruction of pancreatic β-cells. The autoantibodies against glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA), insulinoma antigen-2 (IA-2A), insulin (IAA), and zinc transporter-8 (ZnT-8A) comprise the most reliable biomarkers for T1D in both children and adults. Although three of the GCC countries, namely Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are among the top 10 countries with high incidence rate of T1D, no proper diagnostic and prediction tools were applied in the region. Understanding the disease sequelae in a homogenous gene pool with high consanguinity in the GCC could help solve the challenges in understanding pathogenesis, as well as hasten the prevention of T1D. Arab states must incorporate T1D predictive and intervention policies on a war-footing basis to minimize the burden of this serious disease.

We write the mutual information between an input speech utterance and its reconstruction by a Code-Excited Linear Prediction (CELP) codec in terms of the mutual information between the input speech and the contributions due to the short term predictor, the adaptive codebook, and the fixed codebook. We then show that a recently introduced quantity, the log ratio of entropy powers, can be used to estimate these mutual informations in terms of bits/sample. A key result is that for many common distributions and for Gaussian autoregressive processes, the entropy powers in the ratio can be replaced by the corresponding minimum mean squared errors. We provide examples of estimating CELP codec performance using the new results and compare to the performance of the AMR codec and other CELP codecs. Similar to rate distortion theory, this method only needs the input source model and the appropriate distortion measure.

Introduction: Congenital heart defects (CHD) are the most frequent group of major congenital anomalies, accounting for almost 1% of all births. They comprise a very heterogeneous group of birth defects in terms of their severity, clinical management, epidemiology and embryologic origins. Taking this heterogeneity into account is an important imperative to provide reliable prognostic information to patients and their caregivers, as well as to compare results between centers or to assess alternative diagnostic and treatment strategies. The Anatomic and Clinical Classification of CHD (ACC-CHD) aims to facilitate both the CHD coding process and data analysis in clinical and epidemiological studies. Objectives: 1) To describe the long-term childhood survival of newborns with CHD and 2) To develop and validate predictive models of infant mortality based on the ACC-CHD. Materials and Methods: This study is based on data from a population-based, prospective cohort study: Epidemiological Study of Children with Congenital Heart Defects (EPICARD). The final study population comprised 1881 newborns with CHD after excluding cases that were associated with chromosomal and other anomalies. Statistical analysis included non-parametric survival analysis and flexible parametric survival models. The predictive performance of models was assessed by Harrell’s C index and the Royston-Sauerbrei R2 with internal validation by bootstrap. Results: The overall 8-year survival rate for newborns with isolated CHD was 0.96 [0.93- 0.95]. There was a substantial difference between the survival rate of the categories of ACC-CHD. The highest and lowest 8-year survival rates were 0.995 [0.989-0.997] and 0.34 [0.21-0.50] for “interatrial communication abnormalities and ventricular septal defects” and "functionally univentricular heart", respectively. Model discrimination as measured by Harrell’s C was 87% and 89% for the model with ACC-CHD alone and the full model, which included other known predictors of infant mortality, respectively. The predictive performance as measured by R2 was 45% and 50%, for the ACC-CHD alone and the full model. These measures were essentially the same after internal validation by bootstrap. Conclusion: The ACC-CHD classification provided the basis of a highly discriminant survival model with good predictive ability for the 8-year survival of newborns with CHD. Prediction of individual outcomes remains an important clinical and statistical challenge.

In the dynamic landscape of the telecommunications industry, understanding and mitigating customer churn is paramount for maintaining competitive advantage and sustaining revenue streams. This comprehensive literature review delves into the intricacies of customer churn prediction, a crucial aspect in fortifying the bond between telecom businesses and their customers. The review methodically analyzes 11 articles published between 2000 and March 2024, spotlighting the strategic role of Customer Relationship Management and the prevalence of high churn rates that necessitate a shift from customer acquisition to retention strategies. Furthermore, the review navigates through the challenges inherent in churn prediction, including the complexities of managing large, imbalanced, and noisy datasets and the intricacies involved in model selection and optimization. Despite these challenges, the paper highlights the superior capability of machine learning techniques in handling complex datasets to provide accurate predictions, albeit acknowledging their practical complexities. The main aim of the study is to provide an overview, serving as a knowledge base for researchers interested in machine learning techniques within the realm of telecommunications.

Global climate change, dominated by climate warming, is seriously affecting the balance of global ecosystems, but the risk of species extinction is particularly high in low-altitude mountain areas. To clarify the response of the endemic and critically endangered species Ilex nanchuanensis to climate change, this study used the MaxEnt model to simulate and predict the potential habitat of I. nanchuanensis during the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, the current period, and two future periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The results showed that the hottest monthly minimum temperature is the most important climatic factor affecting the geographical distribution of I. nanchuanensis. Furthermore, I. nanchuanensis will be at risk of population shrinkage and extinction in the future, with the center of mass moving further northwest as concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, especially in the 2070s, when its geographical distribution shrinks the most under the RCP6 scenario. Global warming is causing habitat degradation for many species and will continue to migrate to higher altitudes and latitudes in the future, seriously affecting the global ecosystem balance. Therefore, to actively respond to the impacts of climate change, protected areas should be established around the geographical distribution centers of species, and core, buffer, and experimental areas should be scientifically and rationally delineated for the conservation and cultivation of germplasm resources.

This study aims to identify the optimal combination of microphysics (MP) and cumulus (CU) parameterization schemes for accurately simulating heavy to violet rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand using the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), hereafter referred to as WRF-ROMS. Three CU schemes, namely Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3), and Kain–Fritsch (KF), along with three MP schemes, namely Eta (ETA), Purdue Lin (LIN), and WRF Single-moment 3-class (WSM3), are selected for the sensitivity analysis. Seven instances of heavy to violent rainfall in Thailand, occurring during summer season of 2020 and associated with tropical storms and atmospheric disturbances, are simulated using all possible combinations of the chosen physics schemes. The simulated rain intensities are compared against observations from the National Hydroinformatics Data Center. Performance was assessed using the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI) metrics. The models showed proficiency in predicting light to moderate rainfall, with certain combinations performing better in specific rainfall categories. However, forecasting heavy and violent rainfall proved challenging for all models and lead-time forecasts. Specific combinations, particularly those incorporating the KF scheme, demonstrated superior prediction of heavy to violent rainfall. The FAR values increased with lead-time and rain intensity, and the KF scheme combinations showed improved predictions of intense rainfall with lower FAR values. The CSI values indicated comparable performance between the control model and combination models across light to heavy rain categories, with the KF scheme showing better predictions for longer lead-times. However, accurately predicting intense rainfall remained limited. These findings highlight the need for further improvements, including refining model parameters and exploring advanced techniques to enhance accuracy and skill, particularly for longer-term forecasts. Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction should be considered to extend forecast capabilities.

Background: Painful spinal bone metastases (PSBMs) patients regularly receive palliative radiation therapy (RT) with response rates in about 2 of 3 patients. In this exploratory study, we evaluated the value of machine learning (ML) models based on radiomic, semantic and clinical features to predict complete pain response. Methods: Gross tumour volumes (GTV) and clinical target volumes (CTV) of 261 PSBMs were segmented on planning computed tomography (CT) scans. Radiomic, semantic and clinical features were collected for all patients. Random forest (RFC) and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers were compared using repeated nested cross-validation.Results: The best radiomic classifier was trained on CTV with an area under the receiver-operator curve (AUROC) of 0.62 ± 0.01 (RFC; 95% confidence interval). The semantic model achieved a comparable AUROC of 0.63 ± 0.01 (RFC), significantly below the clinical model (SVM, AUROC: 0.80 ± 0.01); and slightly lower than the spinal instability neoplastic score (SINS; LR, AUROC: 0.65 ± 0.01). A combined model did not improve performance (AUROC: 0,74 ± 0,01).Conclusions: We could demonstrate that radiomic and semantic analyses of planning CTs allowed for limited prediction of therapy response to palliative RT. ML predictions based on established clinical parameters achieved the best results.

A patient will visit physicians when he/she feels ill. This illness is not for COVID-19 but it is a general tendency of human being to visit doctor probably it can not be controlled by general drug. When a patient comes to a doctor, the doctor examines him/her after knowing his/her problem. The physician always asks him/her about some questions related to him/her daily life. For example, if a young male patient comes to a doctor with a symptom of fever and cough, the first question doctor asked him that he has a habit of smoking. Then doctor asks him whether this type of symptom appeared often to him previously or not. If the answers of both questions are yes, then the first one is habit and the second one is that he may suffering from some serious disease or a disease due to the weather. The aim of this paper is to consider habit of the patient as well as he/she has been affected by a critical disease. This information is used to build a model that will predict whether there is any possibility of his/her being affected by COVID-19. This research work contributes to tackle the pandemic situation occurred due to Corona Virus Infectious Disease, 2019 (Covid-19). Outbreak of this disease happens based on numerous factors such as past health records and habits of patients. Health records include diabetes tendency, cardiovascular disease existence, pregnancy, asthma, hypertension, pneumonia; chronic renal disease may contribute to this disease occurrence. Past lifestyles such as tobacco, alcohol consumption may be analyzed. A deep learning based framework is investigated to verify the relationship between past health records, habits of patients and covid-19 occurrence. A stacked Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based model is proposed in this paper that identifies whether a patient can be infected by this disease or not. The proposed predictive system is compared against existing benchmark Machine Learning classifiers such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT).

Accurate forecasts of ocean waves energy can not only reduce costs for investment but it is also essential for management and operation of electrical power. This paper presents an innovative approach based on the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the power generation of an economical wave energy converter named “Searaser”. The data for analyzing is provided by collecting the experimental data from another study and the exerted data from numerical simulation of searaser. The simulation is done with Flow-3D software which has high capability in analyzing the fluid solid interactions. The lack of relation between wind speed and output power in previous studies needs to be investigated in this field. Therefore, in this study the wind speed and output power are related with a LSTM method. Moreover, it can be inferred that the LSTM Network is able to predict power in terms of height more accurately and faster than the numerical solution in a field of predicting. The network output figures show a great agreement and the root mean square is 0.49 in the mean value related to the accuracy of LSTM method. Furthermore, the mathematical relation between the generated power and wave height was introduced by curve fitting of the power function to the result of LSTM method.

Crystallization often occurs in the laser welding of amorphous alloys, reducing the amorphous alloys’ properties. So, it is necessary to simulate the temperature field curve of the welding area by computer and then determine the power and laser moving speed of laser welding. In this paper, the temperature field curve of Zr41.2Ti13.8Cu12.5Ni10Be22.5(Vit1) amorphous alloy in laser welding is obtained by finite element analysis. The continuous heating curve (CHT) of Vit1 is fitted by the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT) equation and the Kissinger equation. If the temperature field curve intersects with the CHT curve, crystallization occurs. The experiment results show that the VFT equation can be used to predict the crystallization of Vit1 better in laser welding. The tem-perature and welding time are increased by using low welding speed. Therefore, the temperature of the weld zone cannot fall in time, resulting intersection of the temperature field curve and the CHT curve. So, crystallization can be avoided if the welding speed is controlled within a rea-sonable range, and the highest temperature is kept under the CHT curve.

Effectively avoiding gas accident is vital to the security of mineral manufacture, and the coal mine gas accident is often caused by gas concentration overrun. The prediction accuracy of gas emission quantity in coal mine is the key to solve this problem. To maintain concentration of gas in a secure range，grey theory and neural network model increasingly diffusely used in forecasting gas emission quantity in coal mine critically. Nevertheless, the limitation of the grey neural network model is that researchers merely bonded the conventional neural network and grey theory. To enhance accuracy of prediction, a modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model is proposed combined amended grey GM(1,1) model and RBF neural network model. Then the proposed model was put into simulation experiment which is built based on Matlab software. Ultimately, conclusion of the simulation experiment verified that the modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model not only boosts the precision of prediction, but also restricts relative error in a minimum range. This showed that the modified grey GM(1,1) and RBF neural network model achieves effectiveness in precision of prediction much better than grey GM(1,1) model and RBF neural network model.

Background: Novel technologies like continuous glucose monitor (CGM) systems are improving diabetes management by means of real-time sensor glucose levels, retrospective course of glucose and trend arrows. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) offers real-time alerts for (prognostic) hypo- and hyperglycemia, fast dropping or increasing glucose, and hence improving glycaemia under unstable conditions like during meals, physical activity and exercise management. Complex CGM systems challenge people with diabetes and health care professionals in interpreting rapid changes, sensor delay (~10-minute difference between interstitial and plasma glucose), and malfunctions. Enhanced prediction models are necessary for optimal insulin dosing, daily activities, and especially for future fully closed-loop systems. Methods: The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of three different predictive models for glucose responses: 1) an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), 2) logistic regression, 3)and long short-term memory networks (LSTM), in predicting glucose levels after 15 minutes and one hour. We compared and evaluated the performance of these models in predicting hypoglycemia (<70 mg/dL), euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL), and hyperglycemia (>180 mg/dL). In more detail, by assessing metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, and accuracy, we specifically assessed which model provided the most accurate and reliable predictions for glucose levels Results: As expected, ARIMA showed the worst accuracy especially predicting hypoglycaemia withing 1-hour (7.3%). The accuracy of the logistic regression model, predicting hypoglycemia during the first 15 min was higher (98%), comparing to LSTM (88%). However, the LSTM model (87%) exceeded the accuracy of hypoglycemia prediction of the logistic regression (83%) during an hour prognosis. The same pattern observed in hyperglycemia - ARIMA model (60%, 1 hour), logistic regression (96%, 15 minutes) and LSTM (85%, 1 hour) Conclusions: These findings suggest that different models may have varying strengths and weaknesses in predicting glucose levels, and the choice of model should be carefully considered based on the specific requirements and context of the clinical application. The logistic regression model was more accurate for the next 15 minutes, especially predicting hypoglycemia. However, the LSTM model exceeded logistic regression for the next one hour prediction. Future research could explore hybrid models or ensemble approaches that combine the strengths of multiple models to further improve the accuracy and reliability of glucose predictions.

(1) Birth asphyxia is the major cause for delivery room resuscitation. Subsequent organ failure and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) account for 25% of all early postnatal deaths. The neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (nSOFA) considers platelet count, respiratory and cardiovascular dysfunction in neonates with sepsis. To evaluate whether nSOFA is also a useful predictor for in-hospital mortality in neonates (≥ 36+0 weeks of gestation (GA)) following asphyxia with HIE and therapeutic hypothermia (TH), (2) nSOFA was documented at ≤ 6 hours of life. (3) 65 infants fulfilled inclusion criteria for TH. All but one infant received cardiopulmonary resuscitation and/or respiratory support at birth. nSOFA was lower in survivors (median 0 [IQR 0-2]; n = 56, median GA 39+3, female n = 28 (50%)) than in non-survivors (median 10 [4-12], p < 0.001; n = 9, median GA 38+6, n = 4 (44.4%)). This was also observed for the respiratory (p < 0.001), cardiovascular (p < 0.001), and hematologic sub scores (p = 0.003). The odds ratio for mortality was 1.6 [95% CI = 1.2 – 2.1] per one-point increase in nSOFA. The optimal cut-off value of nSOFA to predict mortality was 3.5 (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 83.9%). (4) Since early accurate prognosis following asphyxia with HIE and TH is essential to guide end-of-life decisions, nSOFA (≤ 6 hours of life) offers the potential to identify infants at risk of mortality.

Continuous glucose monitoring devices allow diabetes condition management. However, when limited data is available, one option is to increase their size by generating synthetic samples. From a homemade wearable prototype was created a real dataset with 18 instances and 53 attributes that capture characteristics of capillary and venous blood glucose, oxygen concentration, pulse rate, skin temperature, and 24 modules and 24 phases related to bio-impedance. The objective of this article is to generate synthetic datasets, and also it investigates the ideal features subset and optimal model for non-invasive diabetes prediction. Gaussian-Copulas (GC), conditional generative adversarial networks (CG), variational autoencoders, and Copula-GAN techniques' were used to generate five synthetic datasets. Experiments show that GC1 and GC2 datasets follow min/max boundaries and are not copies of the original data. Multilayer perceptron regressor outperformed (train and test) with 2.17, 2.51 in MAE; 9.29, 13.59 in MSE; 3.05, 3.69 in RMSE, and 0.95, 0.92 in R2 in GC1, and 2.64, 3.02 in MAE; 11.43, 15.11 in MSE; 3.38, 3.89 in RMSE, and 0.94, 0.92 in R2 in GC2 with eight features. Future work is necessary to explore autoencoder and generative architectures, datasets with diverse characteristics, and the effect of the number of features.

Diabetes becomes a life threatening non-communicable disease in the world, according to International Diabetic Federation (IDF) in 2023, an estimated 537 million adults (20-79 years) are living with diabetes, which is equivalent to 9.3% of the global adult population. This number is predicted to rise to 643 million by 2030 and 783 million by 2045. Over 3 in 4 adults with diabetes live in low- and middle-income countries. Diabetes is a persistent metabolic condition marked by increased levels of glucose in the bloodstream. It is a significant global health concern, affecting millions of individuals worldwide. It having the symptoms of drowsiness for the whole day if not properly examined or treated well. It is targeted to spread over the younger age community and the number is growing in the exponential fashion. Even day to day many advancements have come from the researcher to diagnose, to find solutions to prevent from newer entry. Authors have taken a dataset with 57 non diabetic and 20 diabetic patients with the total 28735 micro array gene to undergone pre-processing process and reduced up to 22960 gene data using Dimensionality Reduction (DR) such as Detrend Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), Chi square probability density function (Chi2PDF), Firefly algorithm Cuckoo search were used in this research. Meta heuristic algorithms like Particle swarm Optimization (PSO) and Harmonic Search (HS) are used for feature selection. Further seven classification techniques such as Non-Linear Regression (NLR), Linear Regression (LR), Logistics Regression (LoR), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Bayesian Linear Discriminant Classifier (BLDC), Softmax Discriminant Classifier (SDC), Support Vector Machine – Radial Basis Function (SVM-RBF) are using to make a decision, predictive analysis and segregate the data according to the level of blood glucose as Diabetic Patient (DP) and Non-Diabetic Patient (NDP).

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy techniques were applied in this work to 9 lead-acid battery prototypes fabricated industrially, divided on three type/technology packages. Frequency dependent impedance changes were interpreted during successive charge/discharge cycles on two distinct stages: 1) immediately after fabrication; and 2) after a controlled aging procedure to 50% Depth of Discharge, following industrial standards. By investigating their State of Health behaviour vs electrical response, three methods were employed, namely the (Q-Q0) total charge analysis, the decay values of Constant Phase Element in the equivalent Randles circuits, and the resonance frequency of the circuit. A direct correlation has been found for prediction of the best performant batteries in each package, thus allowing a qualitative analysis capable to provide the decay of the battery State of Health. We emphasized which parameters are directly connected with their lifetime performance in both stages, and by consequence, which type/technology battery prototype emphasize the best performance. Based on this methodology, the industrial producers can further establish the quality of the novel batteries in terms of performance vs lifespan, allowing them to validate the novel technological innovations implemented in the current prototypes.

Evidence-based healthcare integrates the best research evidence with clinical expertise in order to make decisions based on the best practices available. In this context, the task of collecting all the relevant information, a recall oriented task, in order to take the right decision within a reasonable time frame has become an important issue. In this paper, we investigate the problem of building an effective Consumer Health Search (CHS) systems that use query variations to achieve high recall and fulfill the information needs of health consumers. In particular, we study an intent-aware gain metric used to estimate the amount of missing information and make a prediction about the achievable recall for each query reformulation during a search session. We evaluate and propose alternative formulations of this metric using standard test collections of the CLEF 2018 eHealth Evaluation Lab CHS.

Defects in pre-mRNA splicing are frequently a cause of Mendelian disease. Despite the advent of next-generation sequencing, allowing a deeper insight into a patient’s variant landscape, the ability to characterize variants causing splicing defects has not progressed with the same speed. To address this, recent years have seen a sharp spike in the number of splice prediction tools leveraging machine learning approaches, leaving clinical geneticists with a plethora of choices for in silico analysis. In this Review, some basic principles of machine learning are introduced in the context of genomics and splicing analysis. A critical comparative approach is then used to describe seven recent machine learning-based splice prediction tools, revealing highly diverse approaches and common caveats. We find that, although great progress has been made in producing specific and sensitive tools, there is still much scope for personalized approaches to prediction of variant impact on splicing. Such approaches may increase diagnostic yields and underpin improvements to patient care.

In this communication, we present an innovative approach leveraging advanced Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, specifically the Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method, to analyze downward and upward light spectra collected by Hyperspectral Ocean Color Radiometer (HyperOCR, HOCR) sensors in the water column. Our work focuses on the development of a robust and efficient tool for unraveling the structure and activities of natural microbial assemblages in the ocean. By applying the NMF method to HyperOCR data, we successfully extracted five spectral signatures, representing unique patterns in the data. These signatures were instrumental in predicting the abundances of various microbial components, including bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, and picoeukaryotes, showcasing the potential of ML and AI in advancing oceanographic studies. To validate the methods, the study area included a shallow coastal area under the influence of freshwater inflow and an open offshore area with a depth of 100 m. The study sites in coastal and offshore waters (Kaštela Bay and Stončica Vis, respectively) had significantly different hydrographic and microbiological characteristics. Kaštela Bay had lower temperatures and salinity than the site on Vis. We have proved by application of different AI and ML methods with specific HOCR sensors prediction of the structure of the microbial community.

Internet of Things (IoT) technologies can greatly benefit from machine learning techniques and Artificial Neural Networks for data mining and vice versa. In the agricultural field, this convergence could result in the development of smart farming systems suitable for use as decision support systems by peasant farmers. This work presents the design of a smart farming system for crop production, which is based on low-cost IoT sensors and popular data storage services and data analytics services on the Cloud. Moreover, a new data mining method exploiting climate data along with crop production data is proposed for the prediction of production volume from heterogeneous data sources. This method was initially validated using traditional machine learning techniques and open historical data of the northeast region of the state of Puebla, Mexico, which were collected from data sources from the National Water Commission and the Agri-food Information Service of the Mexican Government.

Due to the high effectiveness of cancer screening and therapies, the diagnosis of second primary cancers (SPCs) has increased in women with endometrial cancer (EC). However, there’s no previous literature mentioned about adequate evidence to support screening for SPCs in endometrial cancer. This study was aimed to develop effective risk prediction models of second primary endometrial cancer in women with obesity (Body-mass index; BMI > 25) and this study includes datasets of the incidence of SPCs and the other risks of SPCs in 4480 primary cancer survivors by a hospital-based cancer registry database. In our study, we found the obesity played a key role in SPCs. There’re 10 independent variables used as predicting variables, which corelated to obesity should be monitored for the early detection of SPCs in endometrial cancer. In conclusion, it is a promising SPCs prediction. The proposed scheme can support the important influence of obesity and clinical data representations in all cases after primary treatments. Our results suggested that obesity is still a crucial risk factor to SPCs in endometrial cancer.

To gain insight into riser motions and associated fatigue damage due to vortex-induced vibration (VIV), data loggers such as strain sensors and/or accelerometers are sometimes deployed on risers to monitor their motion in different current velocity conditions. Accurate reconstruction of the riser response and empirical estimation of fatigue damage rates over the entire riser length using measurements from a limited number of sensors can help in efficient utilization of the costly measurements recorded. Several different empirical procedures are described here for analysis of the VIV response of a long flexible cylinder subjected to uniform and sheared current profiles. The methods include weighted waveform analysis (WWA), proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), modal phase reconstruction (MPR), a modified WWA procedure, and a hybrid method which combines MPR and the modified WWA method. Fatigue damage rates estimated using these different empirical methods are compared and cross-validated against measurements. Detailed formulations for each method are presented and discussed with examples. Results suggest that all the empirical methods, despite different underlying assumptions in each of them, can be employed to estimate fatigue damage rates quite well from limited strain measurements.

Advanced 1H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) relaxometry and diffusometry methods and VIS-nearIR spectroscopy combined with pH, electric conductivity (EC) and totally dissolved solids (TDS) measurements were used to assess the properties of wastewater collected from a chicken slaughterhouse in each step of the treatment process (wastewater before treatment, biologically treated wastewater, chemically treated wastewater and discharged wastewater) and from sludge. The 1H NMR Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) and Pulsed-Gradient-Stimulated-Echo (PGSE) decay curves recorded for all samples of wastewater were analyzed by inverse Laplace transform (ILT) to obtain the distributions of transverse relaxation times T2 and diffusion coefficient D. The VIS-nearIR total absorbance, T2-values, D-values, pH, EC and TDS parameters were used for statistical analysis in principal component analysis (PCA). The 1H T2-distributions measured for the slaughterhouse wastewater lie in two main regions reflecting the amount of dissolved solids or the distribution of undissolved solids mobility. The PCA analysis successfully differentiates between polluted and less polluted types of wastewater and sludge. The wastewater treatment applied by the slaughterhouse is efficient. The recommended methods for wastewater monitoring are the NMR T2- and D-distributions and EC, TDS and NMR-D diffusion coefficient. Finally, Machine Learning AI-algorithms are used to provide prediction maps of wastewater treatment stage.

1. Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are India’s leading cause of mortality. This study aimed to recalibrate the original Framingham Risk Score (FRS) equations among adults in Kerala state. 2. Methods: Baseline survey data from the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program were analyzed: 921 males and 567 females for lipid-based FRS scores and 1042 males and 646 females for BMI-based FRS scores. Recalibration of the original FRS scores was performed using local data on CVD risk factors and CVD mortality. 3. Results: Among males, the median 10-year CVD risk with the recalibrated lipid-based FRS score was 7.34 (IQR 4.33-12.42), compared with the original score of 8.88 (5.23-14.87) (p<0.001). For BMI-based FRS scores, the median 10-year CVD risk was 7.40 (4.27-11.83) with the recalibrated score, compared to 9.32 (5.40-14.80) for the original score (p<0.001). In females, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.83 (2.90-8.36) with the recalibrated score, compared to 2.85 (IQR 1.71-4.98) with the original score (p<0.001). Similarly, the median 10-year CVD risk was 4.66 (2.74-8.81) with the recalibrated BMI-based FRS score, compared to 2.95 (1.72-5.61) with the original score (p<0.001). 4. Conclusions: Recalibrated FRS scores estimated a significantly lower 10-year CVD risk in males and a higher risk in females than the original FRS scores.

Glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) interconverts glutamate to a-ketoglutarate and ammonia, interconnecting amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism. In humans, two functional GDH genes, GLUD1 and GLUD2, encode for hGDH1 and hGDH2, respectively. GLUD2 evolved from retro-transponsition of the GLUD1 gene in the common ancestor of modern apes. These two isoenzymes are involved in the pathophysiology of neoplastic, neurodegenerative, and metabolic disorders. The 3D structures of hGDH1 and hGDH2 have been experimentally determined; however, no information is available about the path of GDH2 structure changes during primate evolution. Here, we compare the structures predicted by the AlphaFold Colab method for the GDH2 enzyme of modern apes and their extinct primate ancestors. Also, we analyze the individual effect of amino acid substitutions emerging during primate evolution. Our most important finding is that the predicted structure of GDH2 in the common ancestor of apes was the steppingstone for the structural evolution of primate GDH2s. Two changes with a strong functional impact occurring at the first evolutionary step, Arg443Ser and Gly456Ala, had a destabilizing and stabilizing effect, respectively, making this step the most important one. Subsequently, GDH2 underwent additional modifications that fine-tuned its enzymatic properties to adapt to the functional needs of modern-day primate tissues.

Accurate prediction of defects in software components plays a vital role in administrating the quality of the quality and efficiency of the system to be developed. So we have written a systematic literature review in order to evaluate the four main defect prediction techniques. Defect prediction paves way for the testers to find bugs and modify them in order to achieve input to output conformance. In this paper we have discussed the open issues in predicting software defects and have provided with a detailed analyzation of different methods including Machine Learning, Integrated Approach, Cross-Project and Deep Forest algorithm in order to prevent these flaws. However, it is almost impossible to rule which method is better than the other so every technique can be analyzed separately and the best technique according to the problem at hand can be used or can be altered to create hybrid technique suitable for the cause.

The fidelity of the decadal experiment in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) has been examined, over different climate variables for different temporal and spatial scales, in many previous studies. However, most of the studies were for the temperature and temperature-based climate indices. A quite limited study was conducted on precipitation of decadal experiment and no attention was paid to a catchment level. This study evaluates the performances of eight GCMs (MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC5, CMCC-CM, and CanCM4) for the monthly hindcast precipitation of decadal experiment over the Brisbane River catchment in Queensland, Australia. First, the GCMs datasets were spatially interpolated onto a spatial resolution of 0.050×0.050 (5 km× 5 km) matching with the grids of observed data and then were cut for the catchment. Next, model outputs are evaluated for temporal skills, dry and wet periods, and total precipitation (over time and space) based on the observed values. Skill test results reveal that model performances varied over the initialization years and showed comparatively higher scores from the initialization year 1990 and onward. Models with finer spatial resolutions show comparatively better performances as opposed to the models of coarse spatial resolutions where MIROC4h outperformed followed by EC-EARTH and MRI-CGCM3. Comparing the skills, models are divided into three categories (Category-I: MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, and MRI-CGCM3; Category-II: MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR; and Category-III: MIROC5, CanCM4, and CMCC-CM). Three multimodel ensembles’ mean (MMEMs) are formed using the arithmetic mean of Category-I (MMEM1), Category-I and II (MMEM2), and all eight models (MMEM3). The performances of MMEMs are also assessed using the same skill tests and MMEM2 performed best which suggests evaluating the models before the formation of MMEM.

One of the most important sources of energy is the sun. Taiwan is located at north 22-25° latitude. Due to its proximity to the equator, it experiences only a small angle of sunlight incidence. Its unique geographical location which can obtain sustainable and stable solar resources. This study takes research on the forecast of solar radiation to maximize the benefits of solar power generation, and develops methods that can predict the future solar radiation pattern to help reduce the costs of solar power generation. This study builds supervised machine learning models, known as deep neural network (DNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The hybrid supervised and unsupervised model, namely cluster-based artificial neural network (k-means clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering-based models), was developed. After establishing these models, the study evaluated their prediction results. For different prediction periods, the study selected the best-performing model based on the results and proposed combining them to establish a real-time updated solar radiation forecast system capable of predicting the next 12 hours. The study area covered Kaohsiung, Hualien, and Penghu in Taiwan. Data from ground stations of the Central Weather Administration, collected between 1993 and 2021, as well as the solar angle parameters of each station, were used as input data for the model. The results of this study show that different models have their advantages and disadvantages in predicting different future times. Therefore, the hybrid prediction system can predict future solar radiation more accurately than a single model.

Purpose: To compare refractive prediction error (PE)s between phacotrabeculectomy and phacoemulsification. Methods: Refractive PE was defined as the difference of spherical equivalent between the predicted value using the Barrett Universal II formula and the actual value obtained at postoperative one month. Forty-eight eyes that had undergone phacotrabeculectomy (19 eyes, open-angle glaucoma; 29 eyes, angle-closure glaucoma) were matched with 48 eyes that had undergone phacoemulsification by age, average keratometry value and axial length (AL), and their PEs were compared. The factors associated with PE were analyzed by multivariable regression analyses. Results: Phacotrabeculectomy group showed a larger absolute PE compared to the phacoemulsification group (0.51 ± 0.37 Diopters vs. 0.38 ± 0.22, P=0.033). Larger absolute PE was associated with longer AL (P=0.010) and higher intraocular pressure (IOP) difference (P=0.012). Hyperopic shift (PE>0) was associated with shallower preoperative anterior chamber depth (ACD) (P=0.024) and larger IOP difference (P=0.031). In the phacotrabeculectomy group, the PE was inversely correlated with AL: long eyes showed myopic shift and short eyes hyperopic shift (P=0.002). Conclusions: Surgeons should be aware of the possibility of worse refractive outcomes when planning phacotrabeculectomy especially in eyes with high preoperative IOP, shallow ACD, and/or extreme AL.

Link prediction is to complete the missing links in the network or to predict the generation of new links according to the current network structure information, which is very important for mining and analyzing the evolution of the network such for construction and analysis of logical architecture in 6G network. Link prediction algorithms based on node similarity need predefined similarity functions, which is highly hypothetical and only applies to specific network structures without generality. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a link prediction algorithm based on the subgraph of the target node pair. In order to automatically learn the graph structure characteristics, the algorithm firstly extracts the h-hop subgraph of the target node pair, and then predicts whether the target node pair will be linked according to the subgraph. Experiments on seven real data sets show that the link prediction algorithm based on target node pair subgraph is suitable for various network structures and superior to other link prediction algorithms.

In this work, we propose a self-supervised multi-agent system that meets the online learning of clustering tasks for video behavior recognition spatio-temporal tasks. Encoding visual behavioral actions as discrete temporal sequence(DTS). Real-time clustering recognition task in a multi-agent system for continuous model building, training, and correction. Finally, we implemented a fully decentralized multi-agent system and completed its feasibility verification in a surveillance video application scenario on vehicle path clustering.

Technological innovations and the expansion of Internet access have produced significant changes in the configurations of organizations and, consequently, in the relationships between employees and employers. This new scenario generates the need for greater monitoring in the workplace in order to control inappropriate behavior or situations that may generate misfortunes. Two important problems faced are the dissemination of hate through networks and data leakage that can have social, psychological, and financial impacts. Thus, monitoring tools can be incorporated to assist in surveillance, and thus ensure the achievement of organizational objectives. This paper presents a workplace computer monitoring solution that integrates Spyware techniques, and text sentiment classification, along with a distributed microservices architecture, which aims to collect a range of information and generate alerts to managers regarding hate speech and vulnerabilities. Preliminary tests have been conducted to evaluate the performance of Spyware integrated with prediction models.

The concept of distributed generation has made photovoltaic an integral source of energy in smart grid systems, especially in peer-to-peer energy trading frameworks that exploit excess power to fulfill the energy requirements of consumers in cost-efficient and eco-friendly manner. It is believed that P2P energy trading will dominate a significant portion of research in forthcoming power generation systems due to the excessive rise of energy demands across the globe. Despite a plethora of studies on energy optimization solutions in P2P trading, minimizing nanogrid energy trading cost and efficient energy sharing between consumers and prosumers are deemed among the challenging problems. This study overcomes essential issues overlooked by the contemporary P2P energy trading models by introducing a predictive optimization-oriented nanogrid energy trading model. The proposed study encompasses two stages: (1) predictive optimization model which harnesses BD-LSTM-based forecasted energy parameters (energy load, energy consumption, and PV generation) that are later incorporated in PSO-enabled objective function to reduce nanogrid trading cost, (2) optimal energy sharing plan is devised to decide the role of nanogrids as prosumers or consumers by emphasizing the use of PV-produced energy. The proposed model is validated on the case study containing nanogrid houses data. The simulation provides detailed experiments by comparing the energy demand and response using the proposed energy sharing model. The outcomes yield that the energy sharing plan holds a significant potential to fulfill maximum energy requirements of nanogrid house in P2P cluster and significantly reduces the energy cost compared to grid.

Reservoir computing is a machine learning method that uses the response of a dynamical system to a certain input in order to solve a task. As the training scheme only involves optimising the weights of the responses of the dynamical system, this method is particularly suited for hardware implementation. Furthermore, the inherent memory of dynamical systems which are suitable for use as reservoirs mean that this method has the potential to perform well on time series prediction tasks, as well as other tasks with time dependence. However, reservoir computing still requires extensive task dependent parameter optimisation in order to achieve good performance. We demonstrate that by including a time-delayed version of the input for various time series prediction tasks, good performance can be achieved with an unoptimised reservoir. Furthermore, we show that by including the appropriate time-delayed input, one unaltered reservoir can perform well on six different time series prediction tasks at a very low computational expense. Our approach is of particular relevance to hardware implemented reservoirs, as one does not necessarily have access to pertinent optimisation parameters in physical systems but the inclusion of an additional input is generally possible.

The prediction of drug--target interactions is always a key task in the field of drug redirection. However, traditional methods of predicting drug--target interactions are either mediocre or rely heavily on data stacking. In this work, we merged heterogeneous graph information and obtained effective node information and substructure information based on mutual information in graph embeddings. We then learned high quality representations for downstream tasks, and proposed an end--to--end auto--encoder model to complete the task of link prediction. Experimental results show that our method outperforms several state--of--art models. The model can achieve the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve of 0.959 and area under the precise recall curve (AUPR) of 0.848. We found that the mutual information between the substructure and graph--level representations contributes most to the mutual information index in a relatively sparse network. And the mutual information between the node--level and graph--level representations contributes most in a relatively dense network.

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

In India the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported on 30 January 2020, and thereafter cases were increasing daily after the last week of Feb. 2020. COVID-19 identified as family member of coronaviridae where previously Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS belongs to same family. The COVID-19 attacks on respiratory system signing fever, cough and breath shortness, in severe cases may cause pneumonia, SARS or some time death. The aim of this study work is to develop model which predicts the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in India by using the real-time data from 30 Jan to 10 May 2020. There are uncertainties while identifying the population information due to the incomplete and inaccurate data, we initiate the most popular model for epidemic prediction i.e Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, & Recovered SEIR initially the compartmental model for the prediction. Based on the solution of the state estimation problem for polynomial system with Poisson noise, we estimate that the epidemic peak may reach the early-middle July 2020, initializing recovered R0 to 0 and Infected I0 to 1. The outcomes of the model will help epidemiologist to isolate the source of the disease geospatially and analyze the death. Also government authorities will be able to target their interventions for rapidly checking the spread of the epidemic.

The Rosetta software suite for macromolecular modeling, docking, and design is widely used in pharmaceutical, industrial, academic, non-profit, and government laboratories. Considering its broad modeling capabilities, Rosetta consistently ranks highly when compared to other leading methods created for highly specialized protein modeling and design tasks. Developed for over two decades by a global community of scientists at more than 60 institutions, Rosetta has undergone multiple refactorings, and now comprises over three million lines of code. Here we discuss the methods developed in the last five years, involving the latest protocols for structure prediction, protein–protein and protein–small molecule docking, protein structure and interface design, loop modeling, the incorporation of various types of experimental data, and modeling of peptides, antibodies and other proteins in the immune system, nucleic acids, non-standard amino acids, carbohydrates, and membrane proteins. We briefly discuss improvements to the energy function, user interfaces, and usability of the ­­software. Rosetta is available at www.rosettacommons.org.

We examine the use of deep learning (neural networks) to predict the movement of the S&P 500 Index using past returns of all the stocks in the index. Our analysis finds that the future direction of the S&P 500 index can be weakly predicted by the prior movements of the underlying stocks in the index. Decomposition of the prediction error indicates that most of the lack of predictability comes from randomness and only a little from nonstationarity. We believe this is the first test of S&P500 market efficiency that uses a very large information set, and it extends the domain of weak-form market efficiency tests.

The accurate prediction of heat load profiles with a daily resolution is required for a broad range of applications such as potential studies, design, or predictive operation of heating systems. If the heat demand of a consumer is mainly caused by (production) processes independent of the ambient temperature, existing load profile prediction methods fail. To close this gap, this study develops two ex post machine learning models for the prediction of the heat demand with a daily resolution. The selected input features are commonly available to each consumer connected to public natural gas and electricity grids or operating an energy monitoring system: Ambient temperature, weekday, electricity consumption, and heat consumption of the last seven days directly before the predicted day. The study’s database covers electricity and natural gas consumption load profiles from 82 German consumers over a period of two years. Electricity and heat consumption correlate strongly with individual patterns for many consumers. Both, shallow and deep learning algorithms are evaluated. The highest accuracy is achieved by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model with a median of R² of 0.94. The ex post model architecture makes the model suitable for automated anomaly detection in energy monitoring systems.

Amidst escalating environmental concerns, short natural fiber thermoplastic (SNFT) biocomposites have emerged as sustainable materials for the eco-friendly production of mechanical components. However, their limited durability has prompted research into the experimental evaluation of the deterioration of the mechanical characteristics of SNFT biocomposites, particularly under the influence of ultraviolet rays. However, conducting tests to evaluate the mechanical properties can be time-consuming and expensive. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was employed to predict the mechanical properties (tensile strength) and the impact performance (resistance and absorbed energy) of polypropylene reinforced with 30 wt.% short flax or wood pine fibers (referred to as PP30-F or PP30-P, respectively). Eight parameters were collected from experimental studies. The ANN input parameters comprised nondestructive test results, including mass, hardness, roughness, and natural frequencies, while the output parameters were the tensile strength, the maximum impact load and absorbed energy. The model was developed using the ANN toolbox in MATLAB. The linear coefficient of correlation and mean squared error were selected as the metrics for evaluating the performance function and accuracy of the ANN model. They calculate the relationship and the average squared difference between the predicted and actual values. The data analysis conducted by the models demonstrated exceptional predictive capability, achieving an accuracy rate exceeding 96%, which was deemed satisfactory. For both the PP30-F and PP30-P biocomposites, the ANN predictions deviated from the experimental data by 3, 5, and 6% about the impact load, absorbed energy, and tensile strength, respectively.

In automated manufacturing systems, most of the manufacturing processes including machining are automated. Automatic tool change is one of the important parameters for reducing manufacturing lead time. Ceramic cutting tools are used to machine hard materials. Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tools are widely used to machine hardened steel and Stainless Steel due to its superior mechanical properties. Martensitic stainless steel has wide applications in screws, bolts, nuts and other engineering applications. Machining studies on Martensitic Stainless Steel was conducted using Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tool. Tool life was evaluated using flank wear criterion. The tool life obtained from experimental machining process was taken as training dataset and test dataset for machine learning. Using the dataset obtained from experimental machining tool life model has been developed using Gradient Descent algorithm. The model was validated using co-efficient of determination. The accuracy of the machine learning model was tested using the test data and 99.83% accuracy was obtained. Tool life model based on Gradient Descent Algorithm was successfully implemented for the tool life of Ti[C,N] mixed alumina ceramic cutting tool.Keywords: keyword 1; keyword 2; keyword 3 (List three to ten pertinent keywords specific to the article; yet reasonably common within the subject discipline.)

Nowadays, there is extensive production and use of plastic materials for different industrial activities. These plastics, either from their primary production sources or through degradation processes of the plastics themselves, can contaminate the ecosystem with micro and nanoplastics. Once in the aquatic environment, these microplastics can be the basis for the adsorption of chemical pollutants, favoring that these chemical pollutants disperse more quickly in the environment and can affect living beings. Due to the lack of information on adsorption, three machine learning models (random forest, support vector machine, and artificial neural network) to predict different microplastic/water partition coefficients (log Kd) were developed using two different approximations (based on the number of input variables). The best-selected machine learning models present, in general, correlation coefficients upper than 0.92 in the query phase, which indicate that these type of models could be used for a rapid estimation of the absorption of organic contaminants on microplastics.

High-rise building machines (HBMs) play a critical role in the successful construction of super-high skyscrapers, providing essential support and ensuring safety. The HBM’s climbing system relies on a jacking mechanism consisting of several independent jacking cylinders. A reliable control system is imperative to maintain a smooth posture of the construction steel platform (SP) under the action of the jacking mechanism. This research introduces three multivariate time series neural network models—namely, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN)—to predict the posture of HBM. The models take pressure and stroke measurements from the jacking cylinders as inputs, and their outputs determine the levelness of the SP and the posture of the HBM at various climbing stages. The development and training of these neural networks are based on historical on-site data, with the predictions subjected to thorough comparative analysis. All proposed neural network models exhibit the capability to dynamically predict the posture of the HBM during the climbing process, using data from sensors. Notably, the GRU model shows better predictive performance.

Water resource is considered as a significant factor in development of regional environment and society. Water consumption prediction can provide important decision basis for the regional water supply scheduling optimisations. According to the periodicity and randomness nature of the daily water consumption data, a Markov modified autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed in this study. The proposed model, combined with the Markov chain, can correct the prediction error, reduce the continuous superposition of prediction error, and improve the prediction accuracy of future daily water consumption data. The daily water consumption data of different monitoring points are used to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the future water consumption is predicted, in the study area. The results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively reduce the prediction error compared to the ARIMA.

Background. COVID-19 efforts were often ineffective in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Identifying ineffective controls during a pandemic is thus vital. Method. Utilizing publicly available data on COVID deaths in the counties of US states, we create an index to capture and interpret ineffectiveness in the efforts to reduce the spread of the pandemic in US counties. This index is based on the Intervened Poisson Distribution (IPD) introduced originally by Shanmugam. Motivation for the research idea occurred while we noticed the data dispersion of the COVID deaths is smaller than the average only in some counties. Under-dispersed data is common in statistical modeling. A novel approach we adapted in this article includes the estimation of an intervention parameter estimated through iterative non-linear optimization. Results. Twenty-five counties in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Texas, and Utah were found to be ineffective in controlling for fatalities based on the expected probability distribution. A review of the policies enacted in these areas would provide insight into ineffective prevention efforts, and some of these issues are documented in current literature. Conclusion. The IPD index an innovate way to document efficacy of interventions during pandemics. The IPD may identify ineffective efforts prior to statistical models intended to evaluate efficacy of efforts.

Human civilizations are under enormous threats due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) originated from Wuhan, China. The asymptomatic carriers are the potential spreads of this novel virus. Since, guaranteed antiviral treatments have not been available in the market so far, it is really challenging to fight against this contagious disease. To save the living mankind, it is urgent to know more about how the virus transmits itself from one to another quite rapidly and how we can predict future infections. Scientists and Researchers are working hard in investigating to understand its high infection rate and transmission process. One possible way to know is to use our existing COVID-19 infection data and prepare a useful model to predict the future trend. Mathematical modelling is very useful to understand the basic principle of COVID-19 transmission and provide necessary guidelines for future prediction. Here, we have reviewed 9 distinct commonly used models based on Mathematical implementations for COVID-19 transmission and dig into the deep head to head comparison of each model. Finally, we have discussed interesting key behaviour of each model, relevant upcoming important issues, challenges and future directions.

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective method to improve the sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, support vector machine (SVM) is often used to predicting the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Traditionally, the parameters of SVM were always set by manual, which can not ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a method of SVM based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement error of sensors. Natural selection and Simulated annealing are added in PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optimum. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters, they are the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absoluter percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experiment results show that the NAPSO-SVM has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors among the three algorithms, and it is an effective method in predicting dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

There are guidelines on lactation following maternal analgo-sedative exposure, but these do not consider the effect of maternal fasting, nor fluid abstention on human milk macronutrient composition. We therefore performed a structured search (PubMed) on ‘human milk composition’ and screened title, abstract and full paper on ‘fasting’ or ‘abstention’ and ‘macronutrient composition’ (lactose, protein, fat, solids, triglycerides, cholesterol). This resulted in 6 papers and one abstract related to religious fasting (n=129 women) and observational studies in lactating women (n=23, healthy volunteers, fasting). These data reflect two different ‘fasting’ patterns: an acute (18-25h) model in 71 (healthy volunteers, Yom Kippur/Ninth of Av) women and a chronic fasting (Ramadan) model in 81 women. Changes were most related to electrolytes and were moderate, with almost no changes in macronutrients during acute fasting. We therefor conclude that neither short term fasting nor fluid abstention (18-25h) affect human milk macronutrient composition, so that women can be reassured when this topic were raised during consulting. Besides the nutritional relevance, this also matters as clinical research samples – especially to estimate analgo-sedative exposure by lactation - are commonly collected after maternal procedural sedation, associated with maternal fasting and physiology-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models assume stable human milk composition.

Car parking is a challenging part of urban transportation and the traffic violations around it cause many problems for citizens. In recent years, due to the fast growth and development of urbanization, temporary and unauthorized stopping of cars along the streets, especially in large cities, has led to an increased traffic, urban disorders, dangers for citizens, and violation of rules. Studies have shown that there is a direct relationship between vehicle parking violations and urban places. GIScience capabilities and tools play an important role in analysing the spatial distribution of these violations. In this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of vehicle violations in a region of Tehran, Iran that is suffering from a heavy traffic load and heavily polluted air. Although two dissimilar urban segregations exist in the north and south of the study area, our analysis indicates a similar pattern of car parking violations. In both of the areas, about 70% of all curb parks are legal, while the remaining are illegal. Also, spatial analysis reveals a direct relationship between some POIs and the occurrence of car park violations so that the density of legal curb parks is high near some POIs, and less near some others and vice versa. For example, the number of vehicle park violation around the hospitals is more than the average of the study area. However, the number of park violations around the universities is less than the average. Our findings reveal that co-location of certain POIs, for instance a hotel and a supermarket will lead to an increase in the number of park violations. In other words, there is a strong correlation between the type of POIs and curb-parks violations. Our results also show that POIs have an impact radius that leads to violations occurring in that area. For example, the area of the impact of a hospital on the creation of car park violations was estimated at 125 meters. Our presented approach along with the discussed findings along with conclusions can be useful to a large range of stakeholders including urban planner, traffic police departments, local municipalities, law enforcement agencies, and environmentalists to have a better perspective of infrastructure planning.

The food distribution process is responsible for significant quality loss in perishable products. However, preserving quality is costly and consumes a tremendous amount of energy. To tackle the challenge of minimizing transportation costs and CO2 emissions while also maximizing product freshness, a novel multi-objective model is proposed. The model integrates a vehicle routing problem with temperature, shelf life, and energy consumption prediction models, thereby enhancing its accuracy. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II is adapted to solve the proposed model for the set of Solomon test data. The conflicting nature of these objectives and the sensitivity of the model to shelf life and shipping container temperature settings are analyzed. The results show that optimizing freshness objective degrade the cost and the emission objectives, and the distribution of perishable foods are sensible to the shelf life of the perishable foods and temperature settings inside the container.

Time-series analysis is a widely used technique across various fields and industries, as it helps in understanding, predicting, and forecasting the behavior of data points over time. These fields include but are not limited to finance, economics, healthcare, transportation, etc. In the case of this paper, we have focused on finance. Predicting future values of financial time series offers several benefits. Accurate forecasts can help investors make better decisions about their investments. To predict future values, deep learning algorithms are commonly used since it is an effective method with complex data. In this study, we conduct a study that investigates the use of different data pre-processing techniques on deep learning algorithms in predicting the time series values. To conduct this experimental study, we utilize an open source software, which using long short-term memory technique as the representative deep learning technique, published in github software code repository platform. With this study, we investigate the effects of autoencoder and discrete wavelet transform data pre-processing techniques in time-series prediction. We discuss the details of the experimental study and report our results. The results show that time series prediction (using backtesting methodology) without any data pre-processing leads to 12.6% for mean absolute percentage error. The results also show that, time series prediction with the data preprocessing techniques (Wavelet Transform and Stacked Autoencoder) lead to 3.4%

Taste determination in small molecules is critical in food chemistry, but traditional experimental methods can be time-consuming. Consequently, computational techniques have emerged as val-uable tools for this task. In this study, we explore taste prediction using various molecular feature representations and assess the performance of different machine learning algorithms on a dataset comprising 2,601 molecules. The results reveal that GNN-based models outperform other ap-proaches in taste prediction. Moreover, consensus models that combine diverse molecular repre-sentations demonstrate improved performance. Among these, molecular fingerprints + GNN con-sensus model emerges as the top performer, highlighting the complementary strengths of GNNs and molecular fingerprints. These findings have significant implications for food chemistry research and related fields. By leveraging these computational approaches, taste prediction can be expedited, leading to advancements in understanding the relationship between molecular structure and taste perception in various food components and related compounds.

In the steeply inclined and extremely thick coal seams (SIETCS) mined using the horizontal sublevel top-coal caving (HSTCC) method, the uncertainty of gas emission is a safety threat to the mining operations. In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents, the determination of gas emission is crucial. In this paper, we first proposed a prediction model for workers at the floor coalbed to calculate gas emission on site. We then put forward a finite element numerical simulation for researchers to predict gas emission from the floor coalbed. At last, we measured gas emitted from the floor coalbed of SIETCS in Wudong Coal Mine in a specific mining period and used the data to verify the applicability and accuracy of these two gas-emission prediction methods. The results showed that the gas emission from Wudong Coal Mine was 1.08 m³/min calculated based on the prediction model and 1.07 m³/min obtained using the user-defined integration method. Both methods have their own advantages, disadvantages and applicable objects, and are important in predicting gas emission from SIETCS mined using HSTCC method.

Peanut leaf spot is a worldwide disease whose prevalence poses a major threat to peanut yield and quality, and accurate prediction models are urgently needed for timely disease management. In this study, we proposed a novel peanut leaf spot prediction method based on an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model and multi-year meteorological data combined with disease survey records. Our method employed a combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and LSTM to capture spatial-temporal patterns from the data and improve the model ability to recognize dynamic features of the disease. In addition, we introduced an attention mechanism module to enhance model performance by focusing on key features. Through several hyper-parameter optimization adjustments, we identified a peanut leaf spot disease condition index prediction model with a learning rate of 0.001, a number of cycles (Epochs) of 800, and an optimizer of Adma. The results showed that the integrated model demonstrated excellent prediction ability, obtaining an RMSE of 0.063 and an R2 of 0.951, which reduced the RMSE by 0.253 and 0.204, and raised the R2 by 0.155 and 0.122, respectively, compared to the single CNN and LSTM. Predicting the incidence and severity of peanut leaf spot disease based on the meteorological conditions and neural networks is feasible and valuable to help growers made accurate management decisions and reduced disease impacts through optimal fungicide application timing.

Despite being considered as natural components of many ecosystems, forest fires pose significant threats to the environment and human health. In order to ensure public safety and effective fire suppression planning, it is necessary to develop reliable prediction models to mitigate forest fire danger. These models should account for specific environmental conditions. The advent of big data in recent years has opened new avenues for improving forest fire predictions. Machine learning techniques, surpassing traditional forecasting methods, have shown significant promise in this area. By applying the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology to a real-world dataset, this paper explores the application of machine learning approaches to understand forest fire patterns and predict fire danger. We consider six distinct time stages and incorporate feature selection to refine our predictions. It is important to note that forest fire behavior models are not universally effective due to geographical variations in data. Nevertheless, advanced decision-making techniques are vital in forest fire management. Our research presents a systematic exploration of the topic, comparing various machine learning models, thereby providing a comprehensive baseline for future investigations in this crucial environmental arena.

In a recent paper, we extended previous studies on solar-terrestrial relationships by investigating the origin of the March 2012 heatwave in northeast USA. In the present study we check the possible relationship of solar activity with the early March 2012 bad weather in northeast Thrace, Greece. To this end, we examined data from various remote sensing instrumentation monitoring the Sun (SDO satellite), the Interplanetary Space (ACE satellite), the Earth’s magnetosphere (Earth based measurements, NOAA-19 satellite), the top of the clouds (TERRA and AQUA satellites) and the near ground atmosphere. Our comparative data analysis suggests that: (i) the winter-like weather (rainfall, fast winds, decreased temperature) in Thrace started on 6 March 2012, on the same day as the heatwave starting in USA, (ii) during the March 2012 winter-like event in Thrace (6-15 March), the ACE satellite recorded enhanced fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while SOHO and PAMELA recorded solar protons at very high energies (> 500 MeV), (iii) Thrace experienced particularly intense cyclonic circulation, during periods of magnetic storms on 8 - 10 and 12-13 March, which occurred after the arrival at ACE of two interplanetary shock waves, on March 8 and March 11, respectively, (iv) at the beginning of the two above mentioned periods large atmospheric electric fields were recorded, with values ranging between ~-2000V/m - ~1800V/m on 8 March, (v) the winter-like 8-10 March 2012 weather occurred after the detection of the main SEP event related with a coronal mass ejection released in the interplanetary space as a result of intense solar flare activity observed by SDO on 7 March 2012, (vi) the 8-10 March weather was related with a deep drop of ~630C in the cloud top temperature measured by MODIS/TERRA, which favors strong precipitation. Finally, we analyzed data from the electric power network in Thrace (~410N) and we found, for the first time sudden voltage changes of ~3.5kV in the electric grid in Greece, during the decay phase of the March 2012 superstorm. We discuss the winter-like March 2012 event in Thrace in terms of solar cosmic ray influence on the low troposphere mediated by positive NAO. Finally, we infer that the novel finding of the geomagnetic effects on the electric power grid in Thrace may open a new window into space weather applications research.

In this study, by using Least Square Method, the dataset for the Gross Domestic Product per capita is modeled as a function satisfying the fractional differential equation. The function itself is assumed to be the finite summation of its previous values and the derivatives with unknown coefficients. Then, the prediction for the upcoming years is done by having an approach dividing the dataset into 4 regions corresponding to four different tasks. The mathematical model of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the countries (and union) which are Brazil, China, European Union (EU), India, Italy, Japan, UK, the USA, Spain, and Turkey is constructed with a new methodology called as the deep assessment method which comes from the expressing an arbitrary function modeling the dataset as the finite summation of its previous values and the derivatives with unknown coefficient. The method uses the fractional calculus properties combining with Least Square Method and is compared to Long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm which is a special type of neural network used for time sequences in general.

Predicting heart disease is crucial for early diagnosis and intervention, significantly improving patient outcomes and reducing mortality rates. This study compares various machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, using the Cleveland Heart Disease dataset. Comprehensive preprocessing steps were undertaken, such as handling missing values, converting categorical variables to numeric forms, and binarizing the target variable for binary classification. Each model was rigorously evaluated using performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were employed to provide insights into feature importance, ensuring model transparency and interpretability. The results indicate that XGBoost outperformed all other models, achieving an accuracy of 90% and an AUC-ROC of 0.94, demonstrating its superior ability to capture complex patterns in the data through advanced optimization techniques and regularization. This study highlights the significant potential of advanced machine learning techniques, particularly ensemble methods like Gradient Boosting and XGBoost, in enhancing heart disease prediction. These models offer higher accuracy and valuable interpretability, making them practical tools for early diagnosis in clinical settings. Future research should focus on integrating these models into healthcare systems and exploring hybrid approaches to further improve predictive performance and clinical applicability.

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)- 19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively involved in various capacities, including accurate epidemic estimation, fast clinical diagnosis, policy effectiveness evaluation and development of contract tracing technologies. There are more than 23,000 academic papers on the COVID-19 outbreak, and this number is doubling every 20 days while the pandemic is still on-going [1]. The literature, however, at its early stage, lacks a comprehensive survey from a data analytics perspective. In this paper, we review the latest models for analyzing COVID19 related data, conduct post-publication model evaluations and cross-model comparisons, and collect data sources from different projects.

In this paper an integrated methodology for the coupling between 1D- and 3D-CFD simulation codes is presented, which has been developed to support the design and calibration of new diesel engines. The aim of the proposed methodology is to couple 1D engine models, which may be available in the early-stage engine development phases, with 3D predictive combustion simulations, in order to obtain reliable estimates of engine performance and emissions for newly designed automotive diesel engines. The coupling procedure features simulations performed in 1D-CFD by means of GT-SUITE and in 3D-CFD by means of Converge, executed within a specifically designed calculation methodology. An assessment of the coupling procedure has been performed by comparing its results with experimental data acquired on an automotive Diesel engine, considering different working points including both part load and full load conditions. Different multiple injection schedules have been evaluated for part-load operation, including pre and post injections. The proposed methodology, featuring detailed 3D chemistry modeling, was proven to be capable to properly assess pollutant formation, specifically to estimate NOx concentrations. Soot formation trend was also well-matched for most of the explored working points. The proposed procedure can therefore be considered as a suitable methodology to support the design and calibration of new Diesel engines, thanks to its ability to provide reliable engine performance and emissions estimations from the early-stage of a new engine development.

Cities exposed their vulnerabilities during COVID-19 pandemic. Unprecedented policies restricted human activities but left an unique opportunity to quantify anthropogenic effects on urban air pollution. This study aimed to address the key questions of urban development behind the restrictions with the goal of supporting sustainable transition. Data from ground stations and Sentinel-5P satellite were used to assess the temporal and spatial anomalies of NO2. Beijing China was selected for a case study because this mega city maintained a “dynamic zero-COVID” policy with adjusted restrictions, allowing us better to track the effects. The time-series decomposition and prediction regression model were employed to estimate the normal NO2 levels in 2020. The anomalies between the observations and predictions as the deviation were identified due to the policy interventions and quantified different effects using spatial stratified heterogeneity statistics. The top three restrictions showing dominant effects were workplace closures, restricted public transport usage, and school closures, accounting for 54.8%, 52.3%, and 46.4% of NO2 anomalies, respectively; and they are directly linked to the mismatch of employment and housing (deter-mining the commuting patterns), educational inequality and the long-term unsolved road con-gestion. Promoting the transformation of urban spatial structure will effectively alleviate air pollution.

Studies have shown that vehicle trajectory data are effective for calibrating microsimulation mod-els. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology offers high-resolution 3-D data, allowing for detailed mapping of the surrounding environment, including road geometry, roadside infrastruc-tures, and moving objects such as vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians. This research presents a comprehensive framework for integrating LiDAR sensor data into simulation models and accu-rately calibrating for proactive safety analysis. Vehicle trajectory data were extracted from LiDAR point cloud collected at six urban signalized intersections in Lubbock, Texas in USA. Each study intersection was modelled with PTV VISSIM and calibrated to replicate the observed field scenarios. The Directed Brute Force method was used to calibrate two car-following and two lane-change parameters of Wiedemann 1999 model in VISSIM, resulting in an average accuracy of 92.7%. Rear-end conflicts extracted from the calibrated models combined with a ten-year historical crash dataset were fitted into a Negative Binomial (NB) model to estimate the model's parameters. In all the six intersections, rear-end conflict count is a statistically significant predictor (p-value < 0.05) of observed rear-end crash frequency. The outcome of this study provides a framework for the com-bined use of LiDAR-based vehicle trajectory data, microsimulation and surrogate safety assessment tools to transportation professionals for proactive safety evaluation.

The rapid expansion of China's A-share market, coupled with the burgeoning volume of financial research reports, presents a unique challenge to traditional stock price prediction methodologies. This study introduces FAST-SCAN, a novel framework designed to leverage natural language processing (NLP) and time series analysis for the efficient and accurate prediction of stock market trends. By integrating advanced sentiment analysis, primarily through the utilization of the RoBERTa model, with dynamic time series forecasting, FAST-SCAN aims to distill actionable insights from the vast corpus of financial research reports. This approach not only enhances the speed and efficiency of financial analysis but also addresses the time-sensitive nature of market-influencing factors, thereby providing a competitive edge in stock price prediction. The framework demonstrates a notable improvement in predictive performance, achieving a 20% annualized return and a 7.19% RankIC, marking a significant advancement over conventional statistical analysis methods. Through its innovative combination of NLP and predictive analytics, FAST-SCAN paves the way for a more informed and strategic approach to investment in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of timely, data-driven decision-making in the financial industry.

A rapid and efficient technique using an electronic nose based on a mass detector combined with headspace sampling (HS-SPME-MS e-nose) and chemometric tools was applied to classify beer samples between fresh and aged and between samples contained in aluminium cans or glass bottles, and to predict the shelf life of beer. The mass spectra obtained from the HS-SPME-MS e-nose contain information on the volatile compounds, recorded as the abundance of each ion at different mass-to-charge (m/z) ratios. The analysis was performed on 53 samples aged naturally for eleven months in the absence of light and with a controlled temperature of around 14° C +/- 0.5° C. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on the data, showing a grouping of samples between fresh and aged. Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) allowed discriminating fresh from aged beers but was not able to discriminate samples packaged in aluminium cans or in glass bottles. Finally, Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) was applied to build a prediction model and showed to be effective to predict beer shelf life.

(1) Background: The analysis of athletic performance has always aroused great interest from sport scientist. This study utilized machine learning methods to build predictive models using a comprehensive CrossFit (CF) dataset, aiming to reveal valuable insights into the factors influencing performance and emerging trends.; (2) Methods: The study used Random Forest (RF) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models to predict performance in four key weightlifting exercises within CF: clean &amp; jerk, snatch, back squat, and deadlift. Performance was evaluated using R-squared (R2) values and Mean Squared Error (MSE). Feature importance analysis was conducted using RF, XGBoost, and AdaBoost models.; (3) Results: The RF model excelled in deadlift performance prediction (R2 = 0.80), while the MLR model demonstrated remarkable accuracy in clean &amp; jerk (R2 = 0.93). Across exercises, clean &amp; jerk consistently emerged as a crucial predictor. The feature importance analysis revealed intricate relationships among exercises, with gender significantly impacting deadlift performance.; (4) Conclusions: This research advances our understanding of performance prediction in CF through machine learning techniques. It provides actionable insights for practitioners, optimize performance, and demonstrates the potential for future advancements in data-driven sports analytics.

The precipitation, flocculation, and deposition of asphaltene cause severe formation damage within a reservoir and shorten a well’s productive life. Pressure depletion is one factor that contributes to asphaltene precipitation during production; therefore, the first step in managing asphaltene is to determine the onset pressure of the precipitation. While there are numerous equation of state models that can be used to predict the onset pressure, these models are complex and heavily reliant on tuning parameters. Using multivariate linear regression, this work attempts to develop a simple and accurate thermodynamic model for predicting the upper precipitation onset pressure under pressure depletion above the bubble point pressure (Pb) at various temperatures. A total of 94 experimental data points from 37 published crude oil data sets were compiled from the literature. To develop the model, 59 experimental data points were used as training data and 35 experimental data points as testing data. According to the results of the multicollinearity test, the bubble point pressure, temperature, resins, and saturate-to-aromatic ratio were chosen as predictors. The upper onset pressure data with comparable trends were clustered, and unsupervised recognition of three distinct cluster groups was performed. For each cluster identified, a multivariate linear regression model was developed. The model was chosen based on Mallow’s coefficient of determination (Cp), adjusted R² (statistical measure of fit), and S (standard error of the regression slope). The developed model was tested using a data set, and the results showed an adjusted R² of 96.25%, with a mean absolute error of 4.1%. The model was randomly applied to 15 data points to compare it to perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC SAFT) and the Peng-Robinson equation of state models and to the multivariate regression models of Fahim (2007) and Ameli et al. (2016). The results showed that the mean absolute error for predicting the asphaltene precipitation onset pressure was 2.82% using Peng-Robinson, 2.36% using the PC SAFT equation of state, 23.96% using the Fahim model, 24.80% using the model reported by Ameli et al., and 2.39% using the newly developed multivariate regression model. The developed multivariate model appears to be as accurate as the PC SAFT equation of state modeling with tuning parameters. The primary advantage of multivariate regression is that, unlike the PC SAFT equation of state model, it does not require saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA)-based characterization methodologies or rigorous parameter tuning. It is simple to use, quick, and it produces results in a short period of time.