Emergency departments (EDs) are critical in urgent care, where accurate triage optimizes patient flow and resource allocation. Manual triage faces challenges due to increasing volume and com-plexity. This study compares logistic regression, gradient boosting, neural network, and random forest models in predicting Emergency Severity Index (ESI) triage levels for non-traumatic pa-tients at Lampang Hospital's ED. Using data from January 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024, we ana-lyzed 45,245 complete records. The gradient boosting model achieved the highest accuracy (0.81), significantly outperforming logistic regression (accuracy 0.64). Pain scale, sex, and mean arterial pressure were key predictors. This is the first comparison of these models for ESI triage in a Thai hospital, highlighting their potential to improve triage accuracy and efficiency. Implementing these models could enhance patient outcomes and resource management in ED.

This manuscript presents a new two-parameter unit stochastic distribution, obtained by transforming the Laplace distribution, using generalized logistic map, into a unit interval. The distribution thus obtained is named the Laplace-logistic unit (abbreviated LLU) distribution, and its basic stochastic properties are examined in detail. Also, the procedure for estimating parameters based on quantiles is provided, along with the asymptotic properties of the obtained estimates and the appropriate numerical simulation study. Finally, the application of the LLU distribution in dynamic and regression analysis of real-world data with accentuated "peaks" and "fat" tails is also discussed.

The reconstruction of traffic accidents has grown as an interdisciplinary field since the first accident occurred. Various methods have been developed over time, starting with primary data collected at the scene of the accident. In this work, I proposed a method by which the value of the force in the safety belt buckle can be determined when it is equipped with a pretensioning system with pyrotechnic trigger in the tube, PBP or PLP type. The anti-return system of the pretensioner mechanism, which prevents the passenger's body from moving forward, contains a set of balls that block the movement of the piston in the pretensioner tube after its activation. When limiting the movement, the force the human body exerts on the safety belt webbing is transformed into the deformation of the pretensioner tube by the balls of the anti-return system. Depending on the magnitude of the force, the marks left by the balls differ. I propose a relationship of dependence between the acting force and the deformation of the tube. An experimental test bench was created to perform shock traction tests on the pre-tensioning system, under similar conditions to those of the human body acting on the belt in case of a frontal collision. Following the tests, the force value of the seat belt buckle cable and the diameter of the spherical indentations that the balls left in the pretensioner tube were measured. A mathematical model was proposed to determine the normal force with which a ball from the anti-return system deforms the tube. The normal force was also determined by two other methods specific to contact mechanics and used in the specialized literature. By comparing the normal forces obtained by the three methods, a good correlation between the proposed mathematical model and the Komvopoulos-Ye method resulted, the "Hardness" method not being suitable for this study. The determined polynomial regression curve allows finding out the force in the cable of the closer depending on the size of the deformations produced by the balls in the tube. The forces in the belt webbing can be thus determined and biomechanics specialists can evaluate the injuries to the chest and abdomen of the occupants of a vehicle.

The presence of escaped fish in aquaculture facilities as a result of harsh meteorological conditions (more pressing in a face of climate change) requires a better understanding of these dynamical behaviour through vigilant monitoring and validated numerical models. In this context, data from strain, stress sensors as well as meteorological and current sensors installed at an aquaculture farm in the Region of Murcia (Spain) were collected, processed and analysed. Among them, first results about the relationship between load and currents sensors are presented. Due to the complexity of the time series, various analyses were conducted to examine their interrelation, encompassing regression analysis of raw data and data segmented into different time intervals. Through this analysis, it was observed that employing distinct time windows better elucidated the data variability. Furthermore, an optimal data window of 240 data was identified, demonstrating significantly improved explanatory power, with the coefficient of determination (R2) increasing by approximately 0.8 depending on the section. This pave the way for optimizing the monitoring features that must be carried out to relate cause-and-effect variables in the behaviour of these off-shore infrastructures.

The aim of this paper is to study a semi-functional partial linear regression model (SFPLR) for spatial data with responses missing at random. The estimators are constructed by the kernel method, and some asymptotic properties such as probability convergence rates of the nonparametric component and asymptotic distribution of the parametric and nonparametric components are established under certain conditions. Next, the performances and the superiority of these estimators are presented and examined using a study on simulated data and on real data by carrying out a comparison between our semi-functional partially linear model with MAR estimator (SFPLRM), the semi-functional partially linear model with the full-case estimator (SFPLRC) and the nonparametric functional model estimator with MAR (FNPM). The results show that the proposed estimators outperform existing estimators as the number of random missing data increases.

Crop digital twin is redefining traditional farming practices, offering unprecedented opportunities for real-time monitoring, predictive and simulation analysis, and optimization. This research embarks on an exploration of the synergy between precision agriculture, crop modeling, and regression algorithms to create a digital twin for augmenting farmers the concentration and composition prediction-based crop nutrient recovery. This captures the holistic representation of crop characteristics, considering the intricate relationships between environmental factors, nutrient concentrations, and crop compositions. However, the complexity arising from diverse soil and environmental conditions makes nutrient content analysis expensive and time-consuming. This paper presents the result of a predictive digital twin case study that employs six regression algorithms namely Elastic Net, Polynomial, Stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and Linear Regression to predict rice nutrient content efficiently, particularly considering the coexistence and composition of multiple nutrients. Our research findings highlight the superiority of the Polynomial Regression model in predicting nutrient content, with a specific focus on accurate nitrogen percentage prediction. This insight can be used for nutrient recovery intervention by knowing the precise amount of nutrient to be added into the crop medium. The adoption of the Polynomial Regression model offers a valuable tool for nutrient management practices in the crop digital twin, potentially resulting in higher-quality rice production and a reduced environmental impact. The proposed method can be replicable in other low-resourced crop digital twin system.

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common comorbidity in the intensive care unit (ICU), with higher mortality rate among those who receive continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). This study aimed to investigate the association of white blood cell (WBC) levels with all-cause mortality in AKI patients undergoing CRRT. Method We conducted a post hoc analysis of ICU patient data from multiple centers in Korea. First, the levels of WBCs were classified into four groups based on quartiles. Second, the relationship between different WBC levels and mortality was investigated with the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves, Cox proportional hazards model, and generalized additivity model (GAM). Finally, we used multiple imputation to avoid bias caused by non-randomized missing data. The endpoints were short-term (28 days) and long-term (90 days) mortality. Result In our analysis, a total of 1,100 ICU patients were included. Among them, 670 (60.90%) and 781 (71.00%) died within 28 and 90 days, respectively. K-M survival curves showed that patients with the lowest WBC levels had the highest risk of mortality for both outcomes. Adjusted multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that compared with the reference level (quartile 2), low WBC levels increased the risk of both 28-day mortality (quartile 1, HR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.13–1.83, P = 0.004) and 90-day mortality (quartile 1: HR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.05-1.66, P = 0.016). GAM analysis showed a non-linear, U-shaped relationship between pre-CRRT WBC levels and all-cause mortality (non-linear P < 0.05). Conclusion The baseline WBC level is an independent predictor of prognosis for ICU patients receiving CRRT. Patients in the lowest WBC quartile had the highest risk of all-cause mortality. These results provide further evidence that early observation and intervention may have a prognostic value for these high-risk patients.

We present a new penalized method for estimation in sparse logistic regression models with group structure. Group sparsity suggests us to consider the Group Lasso penalty. Being different from penalized log-likelihood estimation, our method can be viewed as a penalized weighted score function method. Under some mild conditions, we provide non-asymptotic oracle inequalities promoting group sparsity of predictors. A modified block coordinate descent algorithm based on a weighted score function is also employed. The net advantage of our algorithm over the existing Group Lasso-type procedures is that the tuning parameter can be pre-specified. The simulations show that this algorithm is considerably faster and more stable than competing methods. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with two real data sets.

Spatial interpolation of meteorological data can have immense implications on risk management and climate change planning. Kriging with external drift (KED) is a spatial interpolation variant that uses auxiliary information in the estimation of target variable at unobserved locations. However, the traditional KED methods with linear trend functions may not be able to capture the complex and non-linear interdependence between target and auxiliary variables, which can lead to an inaccurate estimation. In this work, a novel KED method using least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) is proposed. This machine learning algorithm is employed to construct trend functions regardless of the type of variable interrelations being considered. To evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method (KED with LSSVR) relative to the traditional method (KED with a linear trend function), a systematic simulation study for estimating the monthly means temperature and pressure in Thailand in 2017 was conducted. The KED with LSSVR is shown to have superior performance over the KED with the linear trend function.

In this study, long-term mortality effects associated with exposure to PM10, PM2.5, BC (black carbon), and NOx were analyzed in a cohort in southern Sweden during the period from 1991‒2016. Participants (those residing in Malmö, Sweden, born between 1923‒1950) were randomly recruited from 1991‒1996. At enrollment, 30,438 participants underwent a health screening, which consisted of questionnaires about lifestyle and diet, a clinical examination, and blood sampling. Mortality data were retrieved from the Swedish national cause of death register. The modeled concentrations of PM10 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 10 µm), PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 µm), BC (black carbon), and NOx (nitrogen oxides) at the cohort participants' home addresses were used to assess air pollution exposure. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the associations between long-term exposure to PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx and the time until death among the participants during the period from 1991‒2016. The hazard ratios (HRs) associated with an interquartile range (IQR) increase in each air pollutant were calculated based on the exposure lag windows of the same year (lag0), 1‒5 years (lag1‒5), and 6‒10 years (lag6‒10). Three models were used with varying adjustments for possible confounders including both single-pollutant estimates and two-pollutant estimates. With adjustments for all covariates, the HRs for PM10, PM2.5, BC, and NOx in the single-pollutant models at lag1‒5 were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02‒1.11), 1.01 (95% CI: 0.95‒1.08), 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04‒1.11), and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07‒1.16) per IQR increase, respectively. The HRs were in most cases decreased by the inclusion of a larger number of covariates in the models. The most robust associations were shown for NOx, with statistically significant positive HRs in all models. An overall conclusion is that road traffic-related pollutants had a significant association with mortality in the cohort.

Cropland area is closely related to food production. More previous focuses were paid on impacts of extreme events on food production, but less on cropland dynamics. This study took the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China (FPEN) as a case area, to investigate its cropland area dynamics and driving factors in view of perspectives of extreme events, environmental conditions, socioeconomic development, urban expansion, and ecological construction. We used ridge regression approach to quantify contributions of these drivers to cropland area dynamics. Results showed that cropland area increased significantly at a rate of 333.5km2/a during 1992−2020 and were spatially clustered in east of the FPEN. Impact extent and size each driving factor on cropland trend presented large spatiotemporal differences, but ecological construction (EC) had overall the greatest impact on cropland area changes, followed by urban expansion (UE). In comparison, TL10p has the smallest. UE-dominated areas increased 41.9% since 2010s, but still less than EC. Furthermore, we found that extreme events effects on cropland area trend evidently increased. Particularly, TH90p displayed the most increase (~99.4%). Cropland area changes dominated by extreme temperature events in 2010−2020 increased nearly six times than that in 1992−2010. These findings suggest that increasing impacts of extreme weather events on cropland area changes should be cautioned.

Air pollution in urban centers depends directly on anthropogenic activities. The objective of the present study was to predict tropospheric ozone levels from temperature data in the city of Durango, Dgo. Temperature and tropospheric ozone values were obtained from 18 sampling points in the urban area of the city of Durango, of which 15 were obtained by collecting from the Ventusky service and the rest from three fixed monitoring stations established in the city. These values were interpolated in order to determine the spatial values for the entire city. A correlation analysis was performed for three different periods in the day established as follows (24:00-03:00-06:00, 09:00-12:00-15:00 and 15:00-18:00-21:00). Subsequently, a linear regression analysis was performed by time period. The results showed a higher positive correlation between ozone concentration and temperature from 15:00 hrs to 21:00 hrs; likewise, this period showed a higher goodness of fit in the ozone prediction (R2=0.99; RMSE: 1.12 ppbv). Temperature allows spatial prediction of ozone concentrations in urban areas with acceptable accuracy.

: Background: Vaccine-related death is one of the leading causes of death among African Children. Vaccine coverage is a very important measure to decrease infant mortality. Covid-19 Pandemic has affected the healthcare system and may have disrupted vaccine coverage. Methods: DTP third doses (DTP3) Vaccine Coverage was extracted from UNICEF databases from 2012 to 2021( the last available date). Joinpoint regression was performed to detect the point where the trend changed. The annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was calculated for Africa and the regions. We compared DTP3 vaccination coverage in 2019 with 2021 in each country to verify compliance with WHO targets. Result: During the whole period, the vaccine coverage in Africa has increased with an Annual Percent change of 1.2% (IC 95% 0.9-1.5): We detected one Joint point in 2019. In 2019-2021, there was a decrease in DTP3 coverage with an APC of -3.5(95% -6.0;-0,9). (P< 0.001). Vaccination rates have decreased in many regions and countries during the last two years. Conclusions. COVID-19 has disrupted vaccine coverage, decreasing it all over Africa.

Wheat and barley are among the primary food resources of the world population; therefore, their growth and observation are essential in farms to enhance food security worldwide. On top of that, careful observation of the product is essential to find solutions for the issues faced during their production and to reduce the impacts of weather changes. With the advancement of Remote Sensing technology, the observation and estimation process has increased. In this study, numbers of spectral vegetation indices was used along with canopy biophysical properties ( LAI ) and biochemical properties (chlorophyll), there calculated from (Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2) satellite data. The wheat and barley samples were collected before were be ready for harvest, and a relation with the vegetarian indices was established using the Multi-Linear Regression module, in which the equations used in predicting the harvest were developed and used to create a graph for expected harvest. The result indicated that there is a strong relationship between the vegetation indices of Sentinel-2 and Landsat images and the actual grain yield with R² of 0.77 and 0.71, respectively. The results show that the strongest correlation is observed between the LAI data obtained from Sentinel data and cereal yield data, with an R² 0.68, and the highest correlation for the indices of Landsat images is observed in the NDWI with R² 0.59 and the lowest degree of error was in the root mean square error (RMSE) for the Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 with 0.57 and 1.54. In addition, this study also showed that the least relationship for grain yield prediction was observed between the NDRI for Sentinel-2 (R² 0.1) and SAVI for Landsat image (R² 0.47).

To investigate the dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in Afghanistan in the period 2000-2021 and to assess the impact of such factors as soil moisture, precipitation, and vegetation coverage on it, remotely sensed soil moisture data from Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), and NDVI and LST from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were downloaded and correlations between them were analyzed using the regression method. The result shows that the LST in Afghanistan has a slightly decreasing, but insignificant trend during the study period (R=0.2, p-value=0.25), while vegetation coverage, precipitation, and soil moisture had an increasing trend. It was revealed that soil moisture has the highest impact on LST (R=0.7, p-value=0.0007), and the soil moisture, precipitation, and vegetation coverage explain almost 80% of spring (R2=0.73) and summer (R2=0.76) LST variability in Afghanistan. The LST variability analysis done separately for Afghanistan’s rivers subbasins shows that the LST of the Amu Darya subbasin had an upward trend in the study period, while for the Kabul subbasin the trend was downward.

Alphaviruses, flaviviruses, measles viruses and rhabdoviruses are enveloped single-stranded RNA viruses, which have been engineered as expression vector systems for recombinant protein expression and vaccine development. Due to the presence of non-structural genes encoding the replicase complex, a 200,000-fold amplification of viral RNA occurs in the cytoplasm of infected cells providing extreme transgene expression levels, which is why they are named self-replicating RNA viruses. Expression of surface proteins of pathogens causing infectious disease and tumor antigens provide the basis for vaccine development against infectious diseases and cancer. The self-replicating RNA viral vectors can be administered as replicon RNA, recombinant viral particles, or layered DNA/RNA replicons. Self-replicating RNA viral vectors have been applied for vaccine development against influenza virus, HIV, hepatitis B virus, human papilloma virus, Ebola virus and recently coronaviruses, especially SARS-CoV-2 the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic. Measles virus and rhabdovirus vector-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates have been subjected to clinical trials. Moreover, RNA vaccine candidates based on self-amplifying alphaviruses have also been evaluated in clinical settings. Various cancers such as brain, breast, lung, ovarian, prostate cancer and melanoma have also been targeted for vaccine development. Robust immune responses and protection have been demonstrated in animal models. Clinical trials have shown good safety and target-specific immune responses. Ervebo, the VSV-based vaccine against Ebola virus disease has been approved for human use.

Indian cities are increasingly becoming susceptible to PM10 induced health effects which have become a matter of concern for the policymakers of the country. Air pollution is engulfing the comparatively smaller cities as the rapid pace of urbanization, and economic development seems not to lose steam ever. A review of air pollution of 28 cities of India, which includes tier-I, II, and III cities of India, found to have grossly violated both WHO and NAAQS standards in respect of acceptable daily average PM10 concentrations by a wide margin. Predicting the city level PM10 concentrations in advance and accordingly initiate prior actions is an acceptable solution to save the city dwellers from PM10 induced health hazards. Predictive ability of three models, linear MLR, nonlinear MLP (ANN), and nonlinear CART, for one day ahead PM10 concentration forecasting of tier-II Guwahati city, were tested with 2016-2018 daily average observed climate data, PM10, and gaseous pollutants. The results show that the non-linear algorithm MLP with feedforward backpropagation network topologies of ANN class, giving the best prediction value when compared with linear MLR and nonlinear CART model. ANN (MLP) approach, therefore, may be useful to effectively derive a predictive understanding of one day ahead PM10 concentration level and thus provide a tool to the policymakers for improving decision-making associated with air pollution and public health.

Soil quality assessment based on crop yields and identification of key indicators of it can be used for better management of agricultural production. In the current research, the weighted additive soil quality index (SQIw), factor analysis (FA) and multiple linear regression (MLR) method are used to assess the soil quality of rainfed winter wheat fields with two soil orders on 53.20 km2 of agricultural land in western Iran. A total of 18 soil quality indicators were determined for 100 soil samples (0-20 cm depth) from two soil orders (Inceptisols and Entisols). The soil properties measured were: pH, soil texture, organic carbon (OC), cation exchange capacity (CEC), electrical conductivity (EC), soil microbial respiration (SMR), carbonate calcium equivalent (CCE), soil porosity (SP), bulk density (BD), exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), mean weight diameter (MWD), available potassium (AK), total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), available Fe (AFe), available Zn (AZn), available Mn (AMn), and available Cu (ACu). Mean wheat grain yield for the two years for all of the 100 sampling sites was also gathered. The SQIw was calculated using two weighting methods (FA and MLR) and maps were created using a digital soil mapping framework. The soil indicators taken in the minimum data set (MDS) were AK, clay, CEC, AP, SMR, and sand. The correlation between the MLR weighting technique (SQI-M) and the rainfed wheat yield (r=0.62) was slightly larger than that the correlation of yield with the FA weighted technique (SQI-F) (r=0.58). Results showed that the means of both SQI-M and SQI-F and rainfed wheat yield for Inceptisols were higher than for Entisols although these differences were not statistically significant. Both SQI-M and SQI-F showed that areas with Entisols had lower proportions of good soil quality grades (Grade I and II), and higher proportions of poor soil quality grades (Grade IV and V) compared to Inceptisols. Based on these results, soil type must be considered for soil quality assessment in future studies to maintain and enhance soil quality and sustainable production. The overall soil quality of the study region was of poor and moderate grades. To improve soil quality, it is therefore recommended that effective practices such as the implementation of scientific integrated nutrient management involving the combined use of organic and inorganic fertilizers in rainfed wheat fields be promoted.

This study investigates the trend in monthly and annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature (T_min and T_max) using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) method and evaluates the significance of their variability for maize, sorghum and millet yields in northern Togo employing multiple regression analysis. The historical data of Kara, Niamtougou, Mango and Dapaong weather stations from 1977 to 2012 were used. Four non-parametric methods—Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand’s Range Test (BRT), Pettitt’s Test (PT) and Von Neumann’s Ratio Test (VNRT)—were applied to detect homogeneity in the data. For the data which were serially correlated, a modified version of the MK test (pre-whitening) was utilised. Results showed an increasing trend in the annual rainfall in all four locations. However, this trend was only significant at Dapaong (p < 0.1). There was an increasing trend in T_max at Kara, Mango and Niamtougou, unlike Dapaong where T_max revealed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.01). Similarly, there was an increasing trend in T_min at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, unlike Niamtougou where T_min showed a non-significant decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Rainfall in Dapaong was found to have increased (7.79 mm/year) more than the other locations such as Kara (2.20 mm/year), Niamtougou (4.57 mm/year) and Mango (0.67 mm). T_max increased by 0.13, 0.13 and 0.32 °C per decade at Kara, Niamtougou and Mango, respectively, and decreased by 0.20 per decade in Dapaong. Likewise, T_min increased by 0.07, 0.20 and 0.02 °C per decade at Kara, Mango and Dapaong, respectively, and decreased by 0.01 °C per decade at Niamtougou. Results of multiple regression analysis revealed nonlinear yield responses to changes in rainfall and temperature. Rainfall and temperature variability affects rainfed cereal crops production, but the effects vary across crops. The temperature has a positive effect on maize yield in Kara, Niamtougou and Mango but a negative effect on sorghum in Niamtougou and millet in Dapaong, while rainfall has a negative effect on maize yield in Niamtougou and Dapaong and millet yield in Mango. In all locations, rainfall and temperature variability has a significant effect on the cereal crop yields. There is, therefore, a need to adopt some adaptation strategies for sustainable agricultural production in northern Togo.

The novel COVID-19 disease is a contagious acute respiratory infectious disease whose causative agent has been demonstrated to be a new virus of the coronavirus family, SARS- CoV-2. Multiple studies have already reported that risk factors for severe disease include older age and the presence of at least one of several underlying health conditions. However, a recent physiopathological report and the French COVID-19 scientific council have postulated a protective effect of tobacco smoking. Thanks to a meta-analysis, we have been able to demonstrate the statistical significance in this regard of twelve series from China, France and in the US, reporting three different smoking status (current smoker,former smoker, with a smoking history) as well as disease severity (with respectively odds-ratio of 1.78 [1.08-3.10], 4.60 [3.13-7.17], 2.74 [0.63-5.89]). Subsequently and using a Bayesian approach we have established that past, and present smoking is associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Finally, we refute claims linking general population smoking status (N=O(10^8) or O(10^9)) to much smaller disease course series (N=O(10^4)). The latter point in particular is presented to stimulate academic discussion, and must be further investigated by well-designed studies.

Target 9.c of the 2015 United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) specifically addresses increasing access to information and communication technology (ICT) resources, and striving for universal access to the internet by 2020. The present study seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of the youth related national strategies implemented in this regard by a select number of countries in the Middle East region. The study does so, by relying on a spatial bivariate copula regression analysis of data on youth respondents from five countries, extracted from the 2018 Program for international students’ assessment (PISA). Focusing specifically on evaluating the availability of ICT resources to the youth population, and also identifying the impact of ICT resources on youth subjective well-being in the region, we find that except for the UAE and Qatar that have above OECD average youth performance on the ICT resource index, youth from the remaining countries reported below OECD level average access to ICT resources. The within region cross-country comparative analysis of ICT resources availability to the youth population at home, also highlighted significant heterogeneity across the five countries, post 2015 SDG adoption by UN country members. Furthermore, looking at the impact of ICT resources on youth well-being, controlling for not only cross-country spatial correlations, and factors such as home educational resources, cultural possessions at home, parental occupation status, youth expected occupation status, economic and socio-cultural status, age, gender, and grade level in school; we found that every standard deviation increase in ICT resources to the youth population in the region raises their self-expressed sense of belonging in school by 1.88% standard deviations. Given the empowering nature of ICT resources to youth, and the potential of both to support national as well as regional economic development initiatives, a concerted effort to ease ICT resources diffusion by member countries in the middle east region could assist not only each country in its own development path, but also the region as a whole to live up to its growth potential by the 2030.

In this brief communication, we propose the concept that capillary regression may represent a primary pathogenic process underlying COVID-19 infection, particularly in the serious and life-threatening manifestations of the disease. We suggest that the marked elevations of pro-inflammatory mediators that are observed in these seriously ill patients may directly induce capillary regression and endothelial cell (EC) loss. Recent autopsy studies are demonstrating EC loss leading to widespread microthrombi and associated tissue damage. Recent work has indicated that interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα), and thrombin, individually and in combination, can potently cause capillary tube regression in experimental models in vitro and in vivo. Other pro-inflammatory mediators including interferon gamma (IFNγ), interleukin-4 (IL-4), and interleukin-13 (IL-13) were also shown to be pro-regressive and could be relevant mediators in COVID-19 patients. Interestingly, combinations of pharmacologic agents were identified that reduced capillary regression and protected capillary tube networks against these pro-inflammatory mediators. Such an approach might be an important therapeutic option going forward to treat key disease states where capillary regression plays a major underlying pathogenic role. Finally, if capillary regression is occurring in response to these pro-inflammatory mediators during COVID-19 infection, we suggest that combinations of blocking agents directed to these key pro-regressive mediators might be necessary to appropriately treat patients.

Using only a limited number of computationally expensive functions, we show a way how to construct accurate and computationally efficient approximations of the Colebrook equation for flow friction. The presented approximations are based on the asymptotic series expansion of the Wright ω-function and symbolic regression. The results are verified with 8 million of Quasi-Monte Carlo points covering the domain of interest for engineers. In comparison with the built-in “wrightOmega” feature of Matlab R2016a, the herein introduced related approximations of the Wright ω-function significantly accelerate the computation. With only two logarithms and several basic arithmetic operations used, the presented approximations are not only computationally efficient but also extremely accurate. The maximal relative error of the most promising approximation which is given in the form suitable for engineers’ use is limited to 0.0012%, while for a little bit more complex variant is limited to 0.000024%.

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) is a contagious acute respiratory infectious disease whose causative agent has been demonstrated to be a novel virus of the coronavirus family, SARSCoV-2. A recent pre-print study has showed a heme attack on the 1-beta chain of hemoglobin by COVID19. Beta-thalassemia results of a default in the hemoglobin beta- chain synthesis. 1,5% global population are heterozygotes for this disease. In this study, by a multiple linear regression, we have analyzed the evolution of COVID-19 infection in three Italian regions (Puglia, Sardinia, Sicilia) with different beta-thalassemic prevalences, in order to search a link. The results have showed that betathalassemic heterozygote population prevalence is correlated to immunity against COVID-19, by a regression. This paper is only for academic discussion, the hypotheses and conclusions needs to be confirmed by further research .

In the field of pavement engineering, the determination of the mechanical characteristics is one of the essential process for reliable material design and highway sustainability. Early determination of mechanical characteristics of pavement is highly essential for road and highway construction and maintenance. Tensile strength (TS), compressive strength (CS) and flexural strength (FS) of roller compacted concrete pavement (RCCP) are very crucial characteristics as they are necessitated for many data from mixture proportions as input variables. In this research, the classification-based regression models named Random Forest (RF), M5rule model tree (M5rule), M5prime model tree (M5p) and Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) are developed for simulation of the mechanical characteristics of RCCP. A comprehensive and reliable dataset comprising 621, 326 and 290 data records for CS, TS and FS experimental cases extracted from several open sources over the literature. The mechanical properties are developed based on influential inputs combination that processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). The applied PCA method as feature selection is specified that volumetric/weighted content forms of experimental variables (e.g., coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, supplementary cementitious materials, water and binder) and specimens’ age are the most effective inputs to generate the better performances. Several statistical metrics are measured to evaluate proposed classification-based regression models. RF model revealed an optimistic classification capacity of the CS, TS and FS prediction of the RCCP in comparison with the CHAID, M5rule, and M5p models. The research is extended for the results verification using Monte-carlo model for the uncertainty and sensitivity of variables importance analysis. Overall, the proposed methodology indicated a reliable soft computing model that can be implemented for the material engineering construction and design.

Adequate knowledge about the development and operation of the components of water systems is of high importance in order to optimize them. For this reason, forecasting of future events becomes greatly significant due to making the appropriate decision. Moreover, operational river management severely depends on accurate and reliable flow forecasts. In this regard, current study inspects the accuracy of support vector regression (SVR), and SVR regulated with fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOASVR) and M5 model tree (M5), in river flow forecasting. Monthly data of river flow in two stations of the Lake Urmia Basin (Vaniar and Babarud stations on the Aji Chay and the Barandouz Rivers) were utilized in the current research. Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of mentioned models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performances in forecasting river flows in Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Q_t-1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performances of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the accurate method for forecasting river flows.

Adequate knowledge about the development and operation of the components of water systems is of high importance in order to optimize them. For this reason, forecasting of future events becomes greatly significant due to making the appropriate decision. Moreover, operational river management severely depends on accurate and reliable flow forecasts. In this regard, current study inspects the accuracy of support vector regression (SVR), and SVR regulated with fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOASVR) and M5 model tree (M5), in river flow forecasting. Monthly data of river flow in two stations of the Lake Urmia Basin (Vaniar and Babarud stations on the Aji Chay and the Barandouz Rivers) were utilized in the current research. Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of mentioned models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performances in forecasting river flows in Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Qt-1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performances of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the accurate method for forecasting river flows.

The degree of collaboration among supply chain partners and the structure of the network are important determinants of the level of satisfaction customers derive from the products or services. However, the effects of these dimensions on customer satisfaction at the downstream section of the supply chain remain under-researched in Nigeria. This study precisely examined the effects of collaboration and supply chain design on customers’ satisfaction at the downstream end of the chain using Ekiti State as study area. The study employed descriptive survey design with the use of structured Likert scale questionnaire administered to 381 retailers of noodles in Ekiti State. The research hypotheses were analysed using simple linear regression as statistical technique with the aid of SPSS version 22.0. At the end of the study, it was observed that both collaboration and supply chain design were significant predictors of customers’ satisfaction of instant noodles in Ekiti State. However, collaboration among supply chain partners emerged as stronger determinant of customers’ satisfaction than supply chain design. The study concludes that these two practices of supply chain management are highly important criteria any manufacturing firm especially in the noodles industry must pay close attention to in order to satisfy her consumers.

This paper compares the finite sample performance of three non-parametric threshold estimators via Monte Carlo method. Our results show that the finite sample performance of the three estimators is not robust to the relative position of the threshold level along the distribution of threshold variable, especially when a structural change occurs at the tail part of the distribution.

Using hierarchical regression analysis within a mediation model framework, the present study explores direct and indirect (through life satisfaction) causal impacts of commuting stress on turnover intention of employees from 29 business organizations in six populous cities of Turkey. A semi-random heterogeneous sample of 214 employees with different demographics was surveyed in winter and summer times for also capturing seasonal variations of variables. The results supporting the partial mediating role of life satisfaction in the positive relationship between commuting stress and turnover intention infer that commuting stress induces turnover intention directly and indirectly (by reducing life satisfaction). The analysis of variance reveals that demographic characteristics of employees such as gender, marital status, age, and family size together with commuting type and commuting duration matter for their perceived commuting stress, life satisfaction, and turnover intention levels. Commuting stress perception is relatively higher in summer time whereas the other magnitudes are consistently and significantly invariant between two survey implementations. The study concludes with a call for the consideration of commuting stress and life satisfaction together with environmental and demographic factors when analyzing the antecedents and consequences of employee turnover intention.

Flash flood is one of the most significant natural disasters in China, particularly in mountainous area, causing heavy economic damage and casualties of life. Accurate risk assessment is critical to an efficient flash flood management. There are more than 530,000 small watersheds in 2058 counties in China where flash flood should be prevented. In practice, with limited fund and different risk levels, the priorities of each small watershed for flash flood prevention and control are also needed for an efficient flash flood management. This paper, take Licheng county in China as an example, aims to give out these priorities for management. First, sensitive indexes are identified among index system, which includes 9 indexes based on underlying surface characteristics of small watershed in hilly region. Second, the range of each index and the rank division of each index for evaluation are determined. Based on the rank divisions for evaluation, the flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) is calculated by Variable Fuzzy Method (VFM ) using 1000 samplings generated by Latin hypercube sampling method. Third, the key sensitivity factors that affect flash flood risk grade eigenvalue (H) are assessed by two different global sensitivity analysis methods -- stepwise regression analysis and mutual entropy. Both results indicate that watershed slope (S) is the most sensitive factor; the second is antecedent precipitation index (CN); while other factors are slightly different sensitive in sequence. This study shows that stepwise regression analysis and mutual information analysis are appropriate for the sensitivity analysis of mountain flash flood risk. Finally, based on watershed slope (S), the priorities of flash flood prevention and control of 119 small watersheds in Licheng county are given out.

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was implemented to monitor the moisture content of broadleaf litters. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) models, incorporating optimal wavelength selection techniques, have been proposed to better predict the litter moisture of forest floor. Three broadleaf litters were used to sample the reflection spectra corresponding the different degrees of litter moisture. Maximum normalization preprocessing technique was successfully applied to remove unwanted noise from the reflectance spectra of litters. Four variable selection methods were also employed to extract the optimal subset of measured spectra for establishing the best prediction model. The results showed that the PLSR model with the peak of beta coefficients method was the best predictor among all candidate models. The proposed NIRS procedure is thought to be a suitable technique for on-the-spot evaluation of litter moisture.

In this paper, we present the design of a wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) system, R-band for acquiring the PPG signals. PPG signals are influenced by the respiration or breathing process and hence can be used for estimation of respiration rate. R-Band detects the PPG signal that is routed to a Bluetooth low energy device such as a nearbyplaced smartphone via microprocessor. Further, we developed an algorithm based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) regression for the estimation of respiration rate. We proposed spectral kurtosis features that are fused with the state-ofthe-art respiratory-induced amplitude, intensity and frequency variations-based features for the estimation of respiration rate (in units of breaths per minute). In contrast to the neural network (NN), ELM does not require tuning of hidden layer parameter and thus drastically reduces the computational cost as compared to NN trained by the standard backpropagation algorithm. We evaluated the proposed algorithm on Capnobase data available in the public domain.

The question of the relevance of human and natural capital, as well as the potential adverse effect of natural capital on economic growth, has gained increased attention in development economics. The aim of this paper is to theoretically and empirically assess the relevance of several forms of capital on economic growth in small economies that are dependent upon tourism or natural resources. The empirical framework is based on Impulse Response Functions obtained from Vector Autoregressive models in which we focus on the model where economic growth is the dependent variable for ten small economies that are dependent upon either tourism or natural resources. We find that there is evidence of the ‘’natural resource curse’’, especially in the economies that have a strong dependence on resources that are easily substitutable and whose prices constantly fluctuate. We further find that in the majority of observed cases the type of capital these small economies are most dependent on for their economic growth causes negative impulses in the majority of the observed periods. The main policy recommendation should be to assure that even these small economies should strive towards further diversification and avoid dependence on only one segment of their economy.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection (LTBI) poses a significant public health challenge, especially in populations with high HIV prevalence and limited healthcare access. Early detection and targeted interventions are essential to prevent the progression of active tuberculosis. This study develops predictive models for LTBI outcomes using logistic regression and machine learning approaches and evaluates strategies to improve LTBI awareness and testing. Data from rural areas in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, were analyzed to identify key demographic, health, and knowledge-related factors influencing LTBI outcomes. Logistic regression was employed to pre-dict LTBI positivity based on factors such as age, education, and HIV status. Machine learning models, including decision trees and random forests, were also applied to compare predictive accuracy. A knowledge diffusion model was used to assess the impact of educational interventions on increasing LTBI awareness and testing rates. Logistic regression achieved an accuracy of 66.67% with high precision (80%) but low recall (33%) for LTBI-positive cases, identifying age, HIV status, and LTBI awareness as significant predictors. The random forest model outperformed logistic regression in accuracy (59.26%) and F1-score (0.63), providing a better balance between precision and recall. Feature importance analysis revealed that age, occupation, and knowledge of LTBI symptoms were the most critical factors across both models. The knowledge diffusion model demonstrated that targeted interventions significantly increased LTBI awareness and testing, particularly in high-risk groups. While logistic regression offers more interpretable results for public health interventions, machine learning models like random forests provide enhanced predictive power by capturing complex relationships between demographics and health factors. These findings highlight the need for targeted educational campaigns and increased LTBI testing in high-risk populations, particularly those with limited awareness of LTBI symptoms.

Accurately estimating project duration is critical for the successful delivery of construction projects, particularly in the dynamic and resource-constrained environment of South Africa. This study aims to assess the key factors influencing construction project duration in the South African context through the development of a regression model. By analyzing data from a diverse range of construction projects, the research identifies significant variables such as project size, complexity, location, resource availability, and stakeholder involvement that contribute to delays or expedited completion. The regression model is designed to quantify the impact of these factors, offering a predictive tool that can enhance project planning and scheduling accuracy. The findings provide valuable insights for project managers, contractors, and policymakers, enabling them to make informed decisions that optimize project timelines and improve the overall efficiency of the construction industry in South Africa.

Stunting is a major public health issue in Aceh, Indonesia, requiring advanced analytical techniques for effective interventions. This study presents a novel hybrid machine learning framework designed to enhance the analysis of stunting through improved classification, predic-tive modeling, and clustering optimization. The framework utilizes Support Vector Machines (SVM) with Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Sigmoid kernels for classification. The RBF kernel achieved an accuracy of 91.3%, significantly outperforming the Sigmoid kernel's 85.6%. Linear Regression was employed for predictive modeling, yielding a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.137, which indicates strong predictive accuracy. In clustering, the optimized K-Medoids method, in-corporating a weight product approach, demonstrated superior efficiency by requiring only 3 iterations for convergence, compared to 7 iterations for the conventional K-Medoids method. Additionally, it achieved a higher Calinski Harabasz Index of 93.7, compared to 85.2 for the conventional method. This comprehensive approach enhances accuracy and efficiency across classification, prediction, and clustering tasks, providing valuable insights for targeted interventions and policy development to address stunting in Aceh.

Neural network regularized learning has garnered significant attention in recent years. We give a systematic investigation on the performance of regularized regression associated zonal translation networks. We propose the concept of Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality Setting (MZIS) for the scattered nodes collected from the unit sphere. We show that, under the MZIS, the corresponding convolutional zonal translation network has reproducing property. Based on these facts,we propose a kind of kernel regularized regression learning framework and provide upper bound estimate for the learning rate with the kernel approach. We also give proof for the density of the zonal translation network with spherical Fourier analysis.We provide the approximation error with a K-functional.

This research provides an in-depth analysis of drought impacts in West Pokot, Kenya, utilizing both remote sensing surveys and focus group discussions. The study commenced by assessing the impact of drought on vegetation health via spatial sensors. It then utilized surveys and focus group discussions (FGDs) to engage farmers from the most drought-affected areas in Kacheliba and Sigor sub-counties. The analysis of remote sensing data from 1990 to 2022 highlighted that Sigor and Kacheliba experienced significant drought events during the years 1995, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2009, and 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2019, respectively. This study delves into both the meteorological and socio-economic effects on local communities. Using the Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) model with the glm function, the research uncovered the impacts of so-cio-economic factors and agricultural practices on household livestock production. Additionally, the study employed Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to explore the dynamics between livestock production, community resilience, and crop production. The findings underscore the urgent need for tailored interventions to enhance community resilience in the face of increasing climatic extremes, serving as a blueprint for similar arid and semi-arid regions worldwide.

As society becomes more reliant on Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, state-of-health (SOH) estimation will need to become more accurate and reliable. Therefore, SOH modelling is in the process of shifting from using simple and continuous charge/discharge profiles, to more dynamic profiles constructed to mimic real operation, when ageing the Li-ion batteries. However, in most cases, when ageing the batteries, the same exact profile is just repeated until the battery reaches its end-of-life. Using data from batteries aged in this fashion to build a model, there is a very real possibility that the model will rely on the built-in repetitiveness of the profile. Therefore, this work will examine the dependence of the performance of a multiple linear regression on the number of charges used to train the model, and their location within the profile used to age the batteries. The investigation shows that it is possible to build models using randomly selected partial charges while still reaching errors as low as 0.5%. Furthermore, it shows that only two randomly sampled partial charges are needed to achieve errors of less than 1%. Lastly, as the number of randomly sampled partial charges used to create the model increases, then the dependence on particular partial charges tends to decrease.

Cervical cancer is one of the ailments that endangers the health of women all over the world and causes infertility. Fortunately, this disease can be avoided. Both the results and participation rates of the current preventative strategy remain poor. Hence, preventative or early detection methods remain challenging and open. In gynecology and computer science fields, few studies on identifying cervical cancer are based on behavior risk factor and machine learning. Moreover, various social and behavioral aspects might often make it more difficult to detect cervical cancer especially in low‑ and middle‑income countries (LMICs). Accordingly, focus on predicting the presence of cervical cancer through behavioral risk factors is the basic structure of this research. We proposed an approach to classify cervical cancer from a social-behavioral perspective using logistic regression to predict cervical cancer. We got significantly improved outcomes than the existing methods. Moreover, we used feature engineering to formulate less dimensionality as a pre-processing step and optimized parameters to be prepared for classification phase. The results proved that using the logistic regression with regularization type L1 had a promising performance. The accuracy of Logistic Regression (LR) L1 was 97.2%. Such results support the proposed work as a reliable classification predictive tool.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) stands as a pivotal technological stride toward a sustainable future, with the practice of injecting supercritical CO2 into subsurface formations having already been an established practice for enhanced oil recovery operations. The overarching objective of CCS is to protract the operational viability and sustainability of platforms and oilfields, thereby facilitating a seamless transition towards sustainable practices. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for optimizing well placements in CCS operations, employing a derivative-free method known as Bayesian optimization. The development plan is tailored for scenarios featuring aquifers devoid of flow boundaries, incorporating production wells tasked with controlling pressure buildup and injection wells dedicated to CO2 sequestration. Notably, the wells operate under group control, signifying predefined injection and production targets and constraints that must be adhered to throughout the project’s lifespan. As a result, the objective function remains invariant under specific permutations of the well locations. Our investigation delves into the efficacy of Bayesian optimization under the introduced permutation invariance. The results reveal that it demonstrates critical efficiency in handling the optimization task extremely fast. In essence, this study advocates for the efficacy of Bayesian optimization in the context of optimizing well placements for CCS operations, emphasizing its potential as a preferred methodology for enhancing sustainability in the energy sector.

Employing remote sensing techniques to evaluate crop residue cover (CRC) enables rapid mapping of tillage practices over large cropland areas, which has significant practical implications for monitoring the implementation of conservation tillage practices. This research utilized Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat-8 OLI remotely sensed data, various spectral indices were calculated and the datasets were correlated with the field-measured CRC data. Selected spectral indices, highly significantly correlated, were chosen to build a correlation model between the indices and the CRC. Considering Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat 8 OLI remotely sensed data variations in spectral and spatial scales, the accuracy of CRC models was evaluated using R2 and RMSE values. From the results, it's evident that all six spectral indices, including STI, NDTI, SRNDR, NDI5, NDI7 and NDSVI, registered correlation coefficients with the CRC exceeded 0.3 in the study area. STI and NDTI showed a stronger correlation to CRC, with coefficients of 0.810 and 0.803, respectively. For the Landsat 8 data, the lowest correlation obtained was for NDSVI with the Landsat 8 data with a correlation coefficient of 0.358. Applying the linear regression technique, STI and NDTI obtained higher accuracy compared to other indices in the Sentinel-2 MSI data. For NDTI and STI, The R2 values were 0.650 and 0.665, respectively, while their corresponding RMSE values were 3.96% and 4.03%. The highest model accuracy was obtained for the STI and NDTI constructed from the Landsat 8 OLI data (R2 values 0.41 and 0.40; RMSE values 5.25% and 5.27%, respectively). The CRC model built using partial least squares regression (PLSR) exhibited greater precision when applied to the Sentinel-2 MSI data (R2 value 0.894; RMSE value 2.18%) in comparison to the Landsat 8 OLI data (R2 value 0.695; RMSE value 3.70%). PLSR has the potential to enhance the precision of the model. In addition, the study area shows that the estimation of the CRC is better in the one-dimensional linear regression model and the PLSR model created with the Sentinel-2 MSI optical data compared to the Landsat 8 OLI optical remotely sensed data. The validation suggests that the CRC estimation in the study area is more precise when using the model relying on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery rather than the Landsat 8 OLI imagery.

Surface roughness prediction is a pivotal aspect of the manufacturing industry, as it directly influences product quality and process optimization. This study introduces a predictive model for surface roughness in the turning of complex-structured workpieces, utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) informed by vibration signals. The model captures parameters from both the time and frequency domains of the turning tool, encompassing the mean, median, standard deviation (STD), and root mean square (RMS) values. The signal is from the time to frequency domain is executed using Welch's method, complemented by time-frequency domain analysis employing three levels of Daubechies Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT). The selected features are then utilized as inputs for the GPR model to forecast surface roughness. Empirical evidence indicates that the GPR model can accurately predict the surface roughness of turned complex-structured workpieces. This predictive strategy has the potential to improve product quality, streamline manufacturing processes, and minimize waste within the industry.

This paper proposes a new method for network screening on rural low-volume roads. These roads are important as they provide critical access to agricultural land and tourist attractions. Most low-volume roads belong to the lowest functional class (local rural roads) and thus are built to lower design standards. The conventional hot spot network screening techniques may not be appropriate for low-volume roads due to the sporadic nature of crashes occurring on these roads. Contrarily sophisticated network screening approaches require extensive roadway and traffic data that are often unavailable to local agencies for lack of resources, and/or lack of technical expertise. This research attempts to address these obstacles in low-volume roads network screening which aims to identify candidate sites for safety improvements. The research used an extensive low-volume road sample from the state of Oregon and the Empirical Bayes expected number of crashes in developing the proposed models for network screening. The proposed models do not require exact measurement of roadway geometric features as all geometric variables were classified into categories that are easy to compile by local agencies. Further, the method could be used with and without traffic data, without compromising the effectiveness of the network screening process.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causes of cost variation in natural disaster prevention projects (NDPP) in Gyeongsangbuk-do and to develop effective cost and risk management strategies. The study collected data by conducting an online survey of 244 stakeholders. Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the impact of various variables on cost deviation, in-cluding project management risk (PMR), project costing and execution risk (PCER), project exe-cution strategy risk (PESR), construction project risk (CPR), project cost and schedule risk (PCSR), project management challenges (PMC), and construction project subcontractor and safety man-agement (CPSSM). The results showed that PMR (OR=3.744, 95% C.I. [1.657, 8.457]), PCER (OR=5.068, 95% C.I. [2.236, 11.484]), PESR (OR=3.447, 95% C.I. [1. 853, 6.413]), CPR (OR=2.292, 95% C.I. [1.020, 5.151]), PCSR (OR=4.817, 95% C.I. [2.250, 10.317]), PMC (OR=2.954, 95% C.I. [1.452, 6. 013]), and CPSSM (OR=2.419, 95% C.I. [1.297, 4.515]) had statistically significant effects on cost deviation. In particular, PMR, PCER, and PESR were identified as the main causes, and the effects of additional factors such as CPSSM were also important. The developed predictive model plays an important role in helping stakeholders of NDPP to manage risks in advance and take appro-priate preventive measures to ensure the success of the project. This study empirically supports the theoretical hypotheses of previous studies and provides a clear understanding of the causes of cost deviation in NDPP, which provides important insights for strategic decision-making and provides a new perspective on risk management.

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Derawan Island's coral reefs over two decades (2003, 2011, and 2021) from a machine learning classification perspective. Employing non-parametric algorithms like Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Classification and Regression Tree (CART), our analysis primarily focused on spatial and temporal changes in coral habitats. RF emerged as the most accurate method, demonstrating an accuracy of 71.43% with Landsat 9, 73.68% with Sentinel 2, and 78.28% with Multispectral Aerial Photos. We found that the accuracy of our classification results was significantly influenced by the geographic resolution, as well as the quality of field and satellite/aerial image data. Through spatial clustering, the coral habitats exhibited an Nearest Neighbor Index (NNI) value of 0.8727, indicating specific patterns of distribution. The analysis revealed a decrease in coral reef extent from 2003 to 2011, shrinking to 16 hectares with varying densities, followed by a slight area increase but with more heterogeneous densities between 2011 and 2021. This study not only highlights the dynamic nature of coral reef habitats over two decades but also underscores the critical role of machine learning in environmental monitoring and conservation efforts.

This study presents a research plan that utilizes data obtained from wearable devices to identify human activities and gain insights into human behavior. We developed a model capable of classifying activities similar to human behavior and evaluated the effectiveness and generalization capabilities of this model. The data underwent initial preprocessing, including standardization and normalization. Additionally, recognizing the inherent similarities between human activity behaviors, we introduced a multi-layer classifier model. The first layer is a random forest model based on stepwise regression, which may encounter reduced accuracy for similar activities. The second layer employs a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model based on Kernel Fisher Discriminant Analysis (KFDA). KFDA is used to reduce the dimensionality of data points with potential confusion, followed by SVM for classification. The model was experimentally evaluated and applied to four benchmark datasets: UCI DSA, UCI HAR, WISDM, and IM-WSHA. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieved recognition accuracies of 99.71%, 98.71%, 99.12%, and 97.6% on these datasets, indicating excellent recognition performance. Furthermore, to assess the model's generalization ability, we performed K-fold cross-validation on the random forest model and utilized ROC curves for the SVM classifier. The results indicate that our multi-layer classifier model exhibits robust generalization capabilities.

The redox properties of quinones underlie their unique characteristics as organic battery components that outperform the conventional inorganic ones. Furthermore, the redox properties could be precisely shaped by using different substituent groups. Machine learning and statistics, onthe other hand, have proven to be very powerful approaches for efficient in silico design of novel materials. Herein, we demonstrated the machine learning approach for the prediction of the redox activity of quinones that potentially can serve as organic battery components. For the needs of the present study, a database of small quinone-derived molecules was created. A large number of quantum chemical and chemometrics descriptors was generated for each molecule and subsequently different statistical approaches were applied to select the descriptors that most prominently characterize the relationship between structure and redox-potential. Various machine-learning methods for screening of prospective organic battery electrode materials were deployed to select the most trustworthy strategy for machine learning aided design of organic redox materials. It was found that ridge regression models perform better than regression decision tree and decision tree based ensemble algorithms.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is known for its high car ownership and usage as well its high GDP per capita. This is combined with low/ or no provision of public transportation (PT) systems, has been resulting in perceptual attitudes of full dependency on private car travel. The level of awareness of the benefits of reducing car use and increasing the travel by more sustainable options, has a great impact on social change and behaviour. The Kingdom is currently progressing towards a new phase of “national transfer” through implementation of strategic and sustainable measures and programs. The city of Riyadh is construction a massive metro-system in Riyadh, that is nearing completion and operation. The public is aware of the national agenda, aware of the newly constructed projects and aware of the needed social change to realize the new vision of the country. This paper aims to assess travel behaviour and attitudes towards public transportation of Saudi travellers’ who are witnessing the new transformation in the Kingdom and who are aware of the new sustainable projects. Depicted from the theory of random utility, a discrete choice model of the intent to use public transportation is calibrated as a function of social and attitudinal factors. An online survey was designed and carried out using social media means; a completed 399 questionnaires have been obtained and studied. The methodology includes examining attitudes and preferences of the participants towards using public transportation options against participants’ socio-economic data. The analysis was carried out using ordinal logistic regression analysis (OLR) which is an efficient technique that is derived from the theory of random utility. The results show a good support for PT; a higher support for public transportation modes, form participants who are young females, lower income groups and the university graduates were reported. The level of support seems higher with the higher level of awareness about the new PT system.

The metro station ridership features are associated significantly with the built environment factors of the pedestrian catchment area surrounding metro stations. The existing studies have focused on the impact on total ridership at metro stations, ignoring the impact on varying patterns of metro station ridership. Therefore, the reasonable identification of metro station categories and built environment factors affecting the varying patterns of ridership in different categories of stations is very important for metro construction. In this study, we developed a data-driven framework to examine the relationship between varying patterns of metro station ridership and built environment factors in these areas. By leveraging smart card data, we extracted the dynamic characteristics of ridership and utilized hierarchical clustering and K-means clustering to identify diverse patterns of metro station ridership, and finally identified six main ridership patterns. We then developed a new built environment measurement framework and adopted multinomial logistic regression analysis to explore the association between ridership patterns and built environment factors. (1) The clustering analysis result revealed that six station types were classified based on varying patterns of passenger flow, representing distinct functional characteristics. (2) The regression analysis indicated that diversity, density, and location factors were significantly associated with most station function types, while destination accessibility was only positively associated with employment-oriented type station, and centrality was only associated with employment-oriented hybrid type station. These results could inform the coordinated development of rail transit and land use, and the renewal and enhancement of the built environment in the pedestrian catchment area surrounding metro stations.

Starting from a very simple economic scenario, we build on it a game and then we introduce a general strategy able to reduce a regression problem to an equivalent binary classification problem. This reduction scheme (that we call adaptive reduction or also dynamic reduction) can be also used to derive a new boosting algorithm for regression problems named bOOst^d. The bOOst^d algorithm is very simple to implement, and it can use any learning algorithm with no priori assumptions. We present a conjecture for bOOst^d performances, which ensures a little error on training set. More important we can also provide a very good theoretical upper bound for the generalization error. We give a set of preliminary experimental results that seems to confirm our conjecture for bOOst^d performances on training set and the theoretical assumptions for the generalization error. We also provide a possible justification of why boosting often does not overfit. Finally, we leave some open problems and argue that in the future an adaptive single boosting (with an unique code) algorithm for binary, multi class and regression problems can be derived.

Sleep deficiency impacts the quality of life and may have serious health consequences in the long run. Questionnaire-based subjective assessment of sleep deficiency has many limitations. On the other hand, objective assessment of sleep deficiency is challenging. In this study, we propose a polysomnography-based mathematical model for computing baseline sleep deficiency severity score and then investigated the estimation of sleep deficiency severity using features available only from wearable sensor data including heart rate variability and single-channel electroen-cephalography for a dataset of 500 subjects. We used Monte-Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) and inter-dependency discovery for selecting the best features and removing multi-collinearity. For developing the Regression model we investigated both the frequentist and the Bayesian ap-proaches. An Artificial Neural Network achieved the best performance of RMSE = 5.47 and an R-squared value of 0.67 for sleep deficiency severity estimation. The developed method is com-parable to conventional methods of Functional Outcome of Sleep Questionnaire and Epworth Sleepiness Scale for assessing the impact of sleep apnea on sleep deficiency. Moreover, the results pave the way for reliable and interpretable sleep deficiency severity estimation using a wearable device in Smart Health.

This is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the benefit of urban open spaces and cropland with different adjacent public facilities seen as locally undesirable (“not in my backyard,” NIMBY) or desirable (“yes in my backyard,” YIMBY). The total benefit increases or decreases for urban open space and cropland with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in a municipality in Taiwan. The results show that for the city as a whole, the current arrangement of NIMBY and YIMBY in different zones decreases the total benefit of urban open spaces in highly urbanized zones and increases the total damage to cropland in extremely rural zones. This indicates a need to avoid further installing NIMBY or YIMBY facilities in already occupied urban open spaces. The results also demonstrate that locating NIMBY or YIMBY facilities near cropland fails to highlight the benefit of YIMBY facilities and magnifies opposition to NIMBY facilities. For individual housing units, the total damage is 1.87% of the average housing price for cropland-type open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities, and the total benefit is 7.43% of the average housing price for urban-type open space in a highly urbanized area. In contrast, the total benefit for open space with adjacent NIMBY or YIMBY facilities is a 2.95%-13.80% increase in the average housing price for areas with mixed urban open space and cropland.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

The most common index for representing structural condition of the pavement is the structural number. The current procedure for determining structural numbers involves utilizing falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar tests, recording pavement surface deflections, and analyzing recorded deflections by back-calculation manners. This procedure has two drawbacks: 1. falling weight deflectometer and ground-penetrating radar are expensive tests, 2. back-calculation ways has some inherent shortcomings compared to exact methods as they adopt a trial and error approach. In this study, three machine learning methods entitled Gaussian process regression, m5p model tree, and random forest used for the prediction of structural numbers in flexible pavements. Dataset of this paper is related to 759 flexible pavement sections at Semnan and Khuzestan provinces in Iran and includes “structural number” as output and “surface deflections and surface temperature” as inputs. The accuracy of results was examined based on three criteria of R, MAE, and RMSE. Among the methods employed in this paper, random forest is the most accurate as it yields the best values for above criteria (R=0.841, MAE=0.592, and RMSE=0.760). The proposed method does not require to use ground penetrating radar test, which in turn reduce costs and work difficulty. Using machine learning methods instead of back-calculation improves the calculation process quality and accuracy.

Malaria is endemic in Nigeria and remains a major public health problem, taking its greatest toll on children under age 5 and pregnant women, although it is preventable, treatable, and curable. This study investigates the Impact of socio-economic factors and indoor mosquito control on malaria prevalent among pregnant women in Nigeria using logistic regression. To achieve this, secondary data obtained from 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator survey, executed by the National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) and the National Population Commission (NPopC), with a nationally representative sample of more than 8,000 consisting of 7,745 households. The results from the logistic regression with odds ratio revealed that pregnant women are more like to be affected by malaria fever (though not significant) compared to women that are not pregnant. The income levels of the household does not significant reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women in Niger. Concerning the malaria presenting measure, only dwelling sprayed by private company significantly reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women (P-value=0.020<0.05) compared to dwelling sprayed by government and NGOs and also to Insecticide Treated Net. Also pregnant women in the urban centers are less likely to have malaria fever compared to pregnant women in rural communities in Nigeria. Also, pregnant women with atleast a secondary school level of education are less likely to be affected by malaria fever compared to pregnant women with no formal education. The fitted logistic model passed the goodness-of-test fit; the classification test for the logistic model was correctly classified at about 67.02%. Therefore, this study recommends that government and NGOs should intensify their efforts in the area of dwelling spraying, awareness campaign of the danger of malaria fever among pregnant women and infants, engaged in effective distribution of insecticide treated net in order to reduce the incidence of malaria fever among pregnant women living in rural communities in Nigeria.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the presence of spatial and temporal effects on the calls for noise disturbance service reported to the Local Police of València (Spain) in the time period from 2014 to 2015, and investigate how some socio-demographic and environmental variables affect the noise phenomenon. The analysis is performed at the level of València's boroughs. It has been carried out using a logistic model after dichotomization of the noise incidents variable. The spatial effects consider first and second order neighbours. The temporal effects are included in the model by means of one and two weeks temporal lags. Our model confirms the presence of strong spatio-temporal effects. We also find significant associations between noise incidence and specific age groups, socio-economic status, land uses and recreational activities, among other variables. The results suggest that there is a problem of ``social'' noise in València that is not exclusively a consequence of coexistence between local residents. External factors such as the increasing number of people on the streets during weekend nights or during summer months increase severely the chances of expecting a noise incident.

Over the past two decades, persistent occurrences of harmful algal blooms (HAB; Karenia brevis) have been reported in Charlotte County, southwestern Florida. We developed data-driven models that rely on spatiotemporal remote sensing and field data to identify factors controlling HAB propagation, provide a same-day distribution (nowcasting), and forecast their occurrences up to three days in advance. We constructed multivariate regression models using historical HAB occurrences (213 events reported from January 2010 to October 2017) compiled by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission and validated the models against a subset (20%) of the reported historical events. The models were designed to specifically capture the onset of the HABs instead of those that developed days earlier and continued thereafter. A prototype of an early warning system was developed through a threefold exercise. The first step involved the automatic downloading and processing of daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua products using SeaDAS ocean color processing software to extract temporal and spatial variations of remote sensing-based variables over the study area. The second step involved the development of a multivariate regression model for same-day mapping of HABs and similar subsequent models for forecasting HAB occurrences one, two, and three days in advance. Eleven remote sensing variables and two non-remote sensing variables were used as inputs for the generated models. In the third and final step, model outputs (same-day and forecasted distribution of HABs) were posted automatically on a web-based GIS (http://www.esrs.wmich.edu/webmap/bloom/). Our findings include the following: (1) the variables most indicative of the timing of bloom propagation are bathymetry, euphotic depth, wind direction, SST, chlorophyll-a [OC3M] and distance from the river mouth, and (2) the model predictions were 90% successful for same-day mapping and 65%, 72% and 71% for the one-, two- and three-day advance predictions, respectively. The adopted methodologies are reliable, dependent on readily available remote sensing data sets, and cost-effective and thus could potentially be used to map and forecast algal bloom occurrences in data-scarce regions.

Water management can improve the quality of valuable ecosystem services but can be costly to implement and the management costs are covered by national taxes collected by water users. Based on 30 valuation studies of water quality improvement from the Environmental Valuation Information System (EVIS) database provided by Korea Environment Institute (KEI), a meta-regression analysis was employed to measure the benefits that major river basins provided to the society. We compare these benefits to the costs, namely River Management Funds (RMFs) which are financial resources to support a variety of projects for managing and improving upstream water quality. Based on benefit-cost comparison, this study evaluates the efficiency of water resource management in South Korea. This study also provides policy options that are helpful to maintain the sustainability of water resource by improving the planning and performance of water management in the long run.

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

This paper is about to estimate the suspended sediment transport amount in the streams flowing into the Sapanca Lake Basin. There are 12 subsidiary streams flowing into the Sapanca Lake Basin. With the aim of estimating the suspended sediment transport in 2012-204 in these subsidiary streams, measurements belonging the parameters such as level, cross sectioning, flow rate, temperature and suspended sediment were made monthly. Along the measurement period, weather conditions were above seasonal normal and precipitations decreased. In order to estimate the suspended sediment amount by using results of the measurement obtained, Artificial Neuron Network (ANN), Sediment Rating Curve (SRC) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were used for different scenarios. It was seen that artificial neuron networks yielded the most accurate results among the models.

Indoor positioning based on the received signal strength (RSS) of the WiFi signal has become the most popular solution for indoor localization. In order to realize the rapid deployment of indoor localization systems, solutions based on crowdsourcing have been proposed. However, compared to conventional methods, crowdsourced RSS values are more erroneous and can result in large localization errors. To mitigate the negative effect of the erroneous measurements, a graph-based semi-supervised learning (G-SSL) method is used to exploit the correlation between the RSS values at nearby locations to estimate an optimal RSS value at each location. Before using the G-SSL method, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm is proposed to solve the device diversity problem in crowdsourcing system. Since the spatial distribution of the APs is sparse, the Compressed Sensing (CS) method is applied to precisely estimate the location of the APs. Based on the location of the APs and a simple signal propagation model, the RSS difference between different locations is calculated and used as an additional constraint to improve the performance of G-SSL. Furthermore, to exploit the sparsity of the weights used in the G-SSL, we use the CS method to reconstruct these weights more accurately and make a further improvement on the performance of the G-SSL. Experimental results show improved results in terms of the smoothness of the radio map and the localization accuracy.

Speech enhancement technology seeks to improve the quality and intelligibility of speech signals degraded by noise, particularly in telephone communications. Recent advancements have focused on leveraging deep neural networks (DNN), especially U-Net architectures, for effective denoising. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a 6-level skip-connected U-Net constructed using either conventional convolution activation blocks (CCAB) or innovative global local former blocks (GLFB) across different processing domains: temporal waveform, short-time Fourier transform (STFT), and short-time discrete cosine transform (STDCT). Our results indicate that the U-Nets can receive better signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) when applied in the STFT and STDCT domains, with comparable short-time objective intelligibility (STOI) scores across all domains. Notably, the GLFB-based U-Net outperforms its CCAB counterpart in metrics such as CSIG, CBAK, COVL, and PESQ, while maintaining fewer learnable parameters. Furthermore, we propose domain-specific composite loss functions, considering the acoustic and perceptual characteristics of the spectral domain, to enhance the perceptual quality of denoised speech. Our findings provide valuable insights that can guide the optimization of DNN designs for causal speech denoising.

Introduction: Anemia and undernutrition are severe public health concerns in Ethiopia. These are the two most common nutritional disorders in pregnant women and frequently co-exist. However, to the best of our knowledge, the evidence is lacking on the co-existence of anemia and undernutrition among pregnant women. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the prevalence of co-existing anemia and undernutrition (CAU) and associated factors among pregnant women. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from June 1–25, 2024, on a sample of 515 pregnant women in the Hawela Lida district of Sidama region, Ethiopia. We utilized a multi-stage sampling method to choose eligible study participants. A pre-tested and structured questionnaire was used to collect data via the online Open Data Kit mobile tool. We controlled the effect of confounders and clustering by using a multi-level mixed-effect modified Poisson regression analysis model. Result: The prevalence of CAU among pregnant women was 25.4% (95% CI: 21.9–28.9). The prevalence of CAU was associated with household food insecurity (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR]: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.43–3.28), training on model family (APR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45-0.96), inadequate dietary diversity (APR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.18–1.95), and having poor knowledge of nutrition (APR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06-2.26) at individual levels. Low community-level women’s autonomy (APR: 6.19; 95% CI: 3.42-11.22) and community-level road accessibility (APR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.43-0.98) were the identified determinants of CAU at the community level. Conclusion: One in four pregnant women was CAU in the study area. Household food insecurity, receiving model family training, inadequate dietary diversity, having poor knowledge of nutrition, low community-level women’s autonomy, and community-level road accessibility were the significant determinants of CAU. Therefore, inter-sectorial collaboration should be required to comprehensively address the determinants of CAU at different levels. Besides, any CAU prevention and intervention programs should provide model family training specifically targeting women who have poor nutritional knowledge and a low level of autonomy in health care decision-making.

Our study aimed to identify predictors for the effectiveness of tumor regression in lung cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant treatment and cancer resections. Patients admitted between 2016 and 2022 were included in the study. Based on the histology of the tumor, patients were categorized into lung adenocarcinoma group (LUAD), and squamous cell carcinoma group (SQCA). Ninety-five patients with non-small cell lung cancer were included in the study. Fifty-eight (61.1%) and 37 (38.9%) patients were included in the LUAD and SQCA groups, respectively. Nine (9.5%), 56 (58.9%), and 30 (31.6%) patients were categorized with a tumor regression score of I, II, and III respectively. In multivariable analyses, histology of the primary tumor (SQCA), lymph node size in the preoperative CT scan (>1.7cm) and absolute tumor size reduction after neoadjuvant treatment (>2.6 cm) independently predict effectiveness of tumor regression (OR, [95% Confidence interval, p-value] of 6.88 [2.40-19.77, p70 years, extended resection >one lobe, and tumor recurrence or metastasis were identified as significant independent predictors of reduced overall survival. Assessment of tumor size before and after neoadjuvant treatment might help to identify high-risk patients with decreased survival and to improve patient management and care.

This work offers a new log generalized odd log-logistic exponential regression model for analyzing weekly dengue fever cases in 2022 with a location-systematic component. To achieve this, a data set of 49 observations of dengue fever cases in the Federal District of Brazil is employed. A review of the mathematical properties of the generalized odd log-logistic exponential distribution is provided, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters, and, through Monte Carlo simulations, the accuracy of the estimators is investigated. The model's fit is assessed using global influence metrics and residual analysis. For the time scenario studied, the proposed regression identified factors that have an impact on dengue fever cases, which may contribute to improve disease control. Finally, several interpretations are addressed, and a discussion presents results that aid in better understanding the data set and future research on different data.

Soil secondary salinization has seriously affected the greenhouse vegetable production in China. To improve the secondary salinization greenhouse soil and enhance the soil physical-chemical properties in an eco-environmental way, different organic amendments (straw, straw biochar, Trichoderma bio-organic manure, commercial organic manure) were applied using pot experiment for 60 day to comprehensively screen the optimal remediation method. In this study, soil nutrient condition and salt movement were assessed, and predictive models using multi-linear regression (MLR) and Random Forest (RF) were developed to estimate soil salinization parameters. The findings indicated a significant decrease in soil salt content following the application of organic materials compared to the control treatment. Specifically, the addition of straw at a rate of 250g/kg resulted in a 59.38% reduction in soil salt levels after 60 days (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the main salt ions exhibited dynamic changes over the course of the experiment, with reductions observed in Na+, Ca2+, Cl-, and NO3- content under the 250 g/kg straw treatment by 83.63%, 74.67%, 63.26%, 59.07%, respectively, compared to CK (P < 0.05). In addition, the SO42- content under 125 g/kg commercial organic manure amendment reduced by 48.94%, respectively (P < 0.05). Contrary to expectations, the addition of organic materials significantly increased the levels of total nutrients (N/P/K) and available potassium (AK) and phosphorus (AP) in the soil. Specifically, the addition of straw at a rate of 250 g/kg resulted in increases of 18.02%-87.38% in total potassium (TK), 66.67%-200% in total phosphorus (TP), and 142.87%-367.8% in AK after a period of sixty days (P < 0.05). Ultimately, the treatment involving the addition of 250 g/kg of straw demonstrated the most pronounced impact on the physical and chemical properties of the soil. The random forest method shows promise in accurately predicting soil salt and soil sodium adsorption ratio (SAR)indicators, thereby providing a valuable tool for estimating soil properties.

This study explores the prediction of concrete compressive strength using machine learning models, aiming to overcome the time-consuming and complex nature of conventional methods. Four models—Artificial Neural Network, Multiple Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Regression Tree—are employed and compared for performance. Evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Deviation, Root Mean Square Error, Coefficient of Correlation, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error are used. After preprocessing 1030 samples, the dataset is split into 70% for training and 30% for testing. The ANN model, further divided into training, validation (15%), and testing (15%), outperforms others in accuracy and efficiency. This outcome streamlines compressive strength determination in the construction industry, saving time and simplifying the process.

There are several challenges on how to attain energy efficiency while maintaining balance among factors affecting energy consumption such as power rating and temperature setpoints of cooling units, room temperature and humidity, and indoor air quality (IAQ). A real-time energy and IAQ monitoring system were installed in an educational building to profile the operational power consumption of inverter-based air condition unit (ACU) installed in each room. Polynomial curve and neural fitting regression analysis were applied to the real-time power consumption, indoor temperature and humidity, and carbon dioxide (CO2) level data. The derived models were able to provide the stabilizing indoor thermal and air conditions of the room to reach steady state ACU power consumption. These collected data and calculated parameters can be used to define rules in automating control of cooling appliances for an efficient energy utilization. The regression approaches, using real-time data, have determined the influence of indoor heat conditions and carbon dioxide levels on ACU power consumption. These parameters were utilized to establish consistent values for temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide levels under stable settings of inverter-based air conditioning units.

In Taiwan, mountainous areas account for approximately two-thirds of the total area. The steep terrain and concentrated rainfall during typhoons cause landslides, which pose a considerable threat to mountain settlements. Therefore, models for analyzing rainfall-induced landslide hazards are urgently required to ensure adequate land use in mountainous areas. In this study, focusing on Pingtung County in southern Taiwan, we developed a landslide hazard index (IRL) to land use. Using FORMOSA-2 and SPOT-5 satellite images, data were collected before and after four typhoons (one in 2009 and three in 2013). The ArcGIS random tree classifier was used for interpreting satellite images to explore surface changes and disasters, which were used to analyze slope disturbances. The product of the maximum 3-h rolling rainfall intensity and effective accumulated rainfall was used as a rainfall trigger index (IRT). Considering environmental and slope disturbance factors, an index of slope environmental strength potential (ISESP) was developed through logistic regression (LR). Landslide hazard to land use was estimated using IRT and ISESP. The average coefficient of agreement (Kappa) was approximately 0.71 (medium to high accuracy); the overall accuracy of slope environmental strength potential analysis was approximately 80.4%. At a constant ISESP, IRT increased with the increasing hazard potential of rainfall-induced landslides. Furthermore, IRT and ISESP were positively correlated with landslide occurrence. When large ISESP values occur (e.g., fragile environment and high land development intensity), small IRT values may induce landslides.

An existing simplified simulation model of global climate, population, economy, and governance is extended, through statistical and other data analysis, to include several measures of human well-being and population displacement. The revised model is used to explore (in testing to the year 2060) vicious cycles and causal cascades that, some have warned, could lead to acceleration of climate change in the coming decades. Model scenario testing addresses two uncertainties, namely the strength of the effect of climate change on governance erosion, and the strength of the “heat trap” effect from physical tipping points such as ice loss and permafrost thaw. This testing indicates that a strong heat trap effect could very well accelerate climate change, but that even a strong governance erosion effect is unlikely to do so. Governance erosion would hurt human well-being but is probably not much of a climate threat per se. These results are tentative but point to the possibility of formally modeling causal cascades beyond what the larger climate models have done to date.

Building energy demand impacts a myriad of interconnected economic, societal, and environmental aspects. As a result, Buildings Energy Models (BEM) play an important role in the process of urban design and planning. While previous studies have investigated the effects of building interventions on energy efficiency, their applicability may be limited due to the BEM’s high computational complexity. This limits their ability to systematically study important aspects of energy demand on a large scale. The development of Machine Learning Models (MLM) allows to design the required detailed analysis and solutions, while reducing the computational burden, making MLM attractive for urban designers. The capability of MLM to generalize well for multiple contexts (in our case, multiple buildings) is a crucial contributor to their applicability. However, the validation process in a wider context is often overlooked, therefore its generalization capabilities are not quantified. In this paper, we present a framework to train and validate a surrogate model derived from a physics-based BEM. Our method employs a Multiple Linear Regression model to predict Energy Use Intensity (EUI) for office buildings in Singapore using 36 input parameters (covariates), based on a training dataset of 23,000 samples. Model validation is performed by comparing the results of the Surrogate Model (SM) to a widely used BEM for a sample of 120 buildings. Our results indicate that the SM has an accuracy of NRMSE of 13%, NMBE of −3.56%, and R2 of 0.92, which suggests it can effectively and accurately predict building EUI. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis, which indicates that the parameters associated with internal loads and internal space usage are the most influential. Additionally, we present a reduced order model trained with only the 11 most influential parameters, which exhibits negligible loss in accuracy compared to the full SM while providing reduced complexity. Finally, we demonstrate an application of our SM to evaluate energy efficiency under uncertainty scenarios. The analytically derived results indicate a potential reduction of EUI of offices in Singapore from 227kWh/m2 to 99kWh/m2 by altering the building parameters that were identified as most influential.

In Nigeria, Cervical cancer (CC) and lack of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) awareness poses significant HPV infection risk among women. This study was conducted at Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB) University in Nigeria; focused on assessing HPV awareness and knowledge, particularly concerning its association with CC and oral contraceptive (OC) pills among students and staff. We adapted and validated a 20-item HPV knowledge scale and explored factors influencing knowledge, vaccination rates, awareness, and the impact of ethnicity on HPV knowledge. Also, due to the non-normality of the knowledge score, non-parametric tests were done. Data were summarized using median and interquartile range (IQR), while categorical data were presented in frequency and percentage distribution. We established the reliability of the 20-item knowledge scale with a strong Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.913, indicating internal consistency. However, it revealed a concerning lack of awareness and knowledge about HPV, only 34.8% of participants were aware of HPV infection, and only 25.0% knew about HPV vaccine. Additionally, ethnicity was identified as a significant factor affecting HPV knowledge. Considering these findings, this study emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to enhance HPV awareness and knowledge, particularly among specific ethnic groups. Despite the development and validation of a reliable knowledge scale, the study underscores the importance of educational initiatives to address this knowledge gap, ultimately reducing the risk of HPV infection and CC in Nigeria.

The ultimate analysis parameters including carbon (C), hydrogen (H), nitrogen (N), and oxygen (O) content in biomass was rarely found to be predicted by nondestructive tests until to date. In this research, we developed partial least squares regression (PLSR) models to predict the ultimate analysis parameters of chip biomass using near infrared (NIR) raw spectra of non-wood and wood samples from fast growing tree and agricultural residue and nine different traditional spectral preprocessing techniques. These techniques include first derivative (sd1), second derivative (sd2), constant offset, standard normal variate (SNV), multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), vector normalization, min-max normalization, mean centering, sd1 + vector normalization, and sd1 + MSC. Additionally, we employed a genetic algorithm (GA), successive projection algorithm (SPA), multi-preprocessing (MP) 5−range, and MP 3−range to develop a PLSR model for rapid prediction. A dataset consisting of 120 chip biomass samples was utilized for model development in which the samples was non-wood samples of 65-67% and wood samples was 33-35%, and the model performance were evaluated and compared. The selection of the optimum performing model was mainly based on criteria such as the coefficient of determination in the prediction set (R2P), root mean square error of the prediction set (RMSEP), and the ratio of prediction to deviation values (RPD). The optimal model for weight percentage (wt.%) of C was obtained using GA−PLSR, yielding R2P, RMSEP, and RPD values of 0.6954, 1.1252 wt.%, and 1.8, respectively. Similarly, for wt.% of O, the most effective model was obtained using the multi-preprocessing PLSR−5 range method with R2P of 0.7150, RMSEP of 1.3088 wt.%, and RPD of 1.9. For wt.% of N, the optimal model was obtained using the MP PLSR−3 range method, resulting in R2P, RMSEP, and RPD values of 0.6073, 0.1008 wt.%, and 1.6, respectively. However, wt.% of H model provided R2P, RMSEP, and RPD values of 0.5162, 0.2322 wt.%, and 1.5, respectively. Notably, the limit of quantification (LOQ) values for C, H, and O were lower than the minimum reference values used during model development, indicating a high level of sensitivity. However, the LOQ for N, exceeded the minimum reference value, implying the samples to be predicted by the model must be in the range of reference range in calibration set. By scatter plot analysis, the effect of combined non-wood and wood spectra of biomass chips on rapid prediction of ultimate analysis parameters using NIR spectroscopy was investigated. To include different species in a model, the species have to be not only in the different values of the constituents to make a wider range for robust model but also they must provide their trend line characteristics in the scatter plot i.e. correlation coefficient (R), slope and intercept (same slope and slope approached to 1 and intercept is same (no gap) and approached zero, high R approached to 1). The effect of the R, slope and intercept to obtain the better optimized model were studied. The results show that the different species affected model performance of each parameter prediction in a different manner and by scatter plot analysis which of these species were affecting the model negatively and how the model could be improved was indicated. This is the first time of the effect is studied by the principle of scatter plot.

Empirical equations representing, interpolating and smoothing groups of measurement results by regression methods are in widespread use in metrology and other fields of science and engineering. Standard equations for the propagation of measurement uncertainties to values computed from such equations are available but suffer from a lack of general acceptance and are only infrequently applied in practice. One reason for the slow uptake is the lack of clear methods to account for systematic error. In this paper, uncertainty propagation equations in terms of covariance matrices are generalized to allow for systematic errors in least-squares regression, and effects of the resulting uncertainties are investigated analytically. A stochastic ensemble model of systematic error is proposed for the computation of the non-diagonal elements of the weight matrix of the Generalized Least-Squares method (GLS) from the measurement uncertainty. A GLS projector formalism is described which separates the effects of measurement scatter on values calculated by the equation from those on the related “residuals”, i.e., the residual errors in the fitted data. The same projectors act similarly on the associated uncertainties and covariance matrices and permit the effects of systematic errors on the simulation covariance to be quantified. It is demonstrated that, in order to include systematic errors in the uncertainty estimates of GLS, covariance matrices may be substituted by novel, specifically defined dispersion matrices that are not specified yet by the GUM[1]. Systematic measurement errors may be estimated from various sources; a particularly easy way suggested here involves analyzing the structure in the regression residuals. It is demonstrated that GLS projectors exhibit inherent features of “error blindness” also with respect to systematic errors. [1] GUM: Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, http://www.bipm.org/en/publications/guides

The models of partial least squares (PLS) regression and artificial neural network (ANN) for evaluation of texture properties of cooked germinated brown rice (GBR) using the Fourier transform near infrared (NIR) spectra of uncooked whole grain combined with data separation methods, spectral pretreatment methods were investigated in this study. The ANN was outperformed in evaluation of hardness by back extrusion test of cooked GBR using the smoothing combined with standard normal variate pretreated NIR spectra in the range of 12,500-4,000 cm−1 of 188 whole grain samples where the calibration sample set was separated from prediction set by Kennard-Stone method where the best ANN model for hardness from hidden layers of 25 and 8 iteration time provided R2, r2, RMSEC, RMSEP, Bias and RPD of 0.9987, 0.9447, 0.1021 N, 0.7699 N, 0.0216 N and 4.3 respectively. The PLS regression of 64 sample KDML GBR group and 64 sample various variety GBR group, provided models for the hardness of the former and the toughness of the latter which developed by using 7506−5446.3, 4605.4−4242.9 cm−1 which included the amylose vibration band of 6834 cm−1 while toughness model was from 9403.8-6094.3 cm−1 where included 6834 and 8316 cm−1 vibration bands of amylose which influenced the texture of cooked rice. The PLS regression models for hardness and toughness were with the r2 of 0.85 and 0.82, and the RPD of 2.9 and 2.4, respectively. The ANN model for hardness of cooked GBR should be implemented to the practical use in GBR production factories for the quality assurance and further updating using more samples and several brands to obtain the robust models.

Greek consumers perceive an increased risk of pesticide residues in food. This study examined Greek consumers' perceptions on the safety of Greek plant-based food compared to those originating from other EU countries. Half of Greek consumers believe that Greek food is as safe as other European foods, while the other half disagree. According to a principal components analysis and a bivariate logistic regression, several factors, such as perceived safety of plant foods, education, age, gender, traceability, perceived benefits and risks of pesticides, actual pesticide use, and authoritative information sources, influence this attitude. Authoritative knowledge in this field can reduce risk perception and improve Greek consumers’ attitudes towards food safety. Latent class analysis identified two categories of consumers. The first class receives limited information about pesticides, leading to a lower perceived pesticide benefits, higher mistrust of traceability and concerns about pesticide residues. In contrast, the second class actively searches for information from credible sources, endorses the Greek plant foods safety, acknowledges the pesticides benefits, and trust traceability. Official information is associated to reduced risk perception. Regulators should consider the impact of socio-demographic and other intrinsic characteristics on individuals' risk perceptions and prioritise transparency in risk communication strategies.

Climate change is expected to result in rising temperatures, leading to increased occurrences of extreme weather events like heat waves and cold spells. Urban planning responses are crucial for improving the adaptive capacity of cities and communities in dealing with significant temperature variations across seasons. This study aims to investigate the relationship between urban temperature fluctuations and urban morphology throughout the four seasons. Through quadrant and statistical analyses, the study identifies built-environment factors that contribute to moderate seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). The research focuses on Seoul, South Korea as a case study and calculates seasonal LST values at both the grid level (100m×100m) and street-block level, incorporating factors such as vegetation density, land use patterns, albedo, two- and three-dimensional building forms, and gravity indices for natural reserves. The quadrant analysis reveals spatial segregation between areas demonstrating high LST adaptability (cooler summers and warmer winters) and those displaying LST vulnerability (hotter summers and colder winters), with significant differences in vegetation and building forms. The spatial regression analysis demonstrates that higher vegetation density and proximity to water bodies play key roles in moderating LST, leading to cooler summers and warmer winters. Building characteristics have an invariant impact on LST across all seasons, where horizontal expansion contributes to higher LST, while vertical expansion reduces LST. These findings are consistent for both grid- and block-level analyses. The study emphasizes the flexible role of the natural environment in moderating temperatures.

This paper examines the importance of choice of cooking fuels in wellbeing, analysing relationships between the proportion of population with primary reliance on different types of fuels for cooking (predictor variable), and key wellbeing indices (outcome variables) - Personal Health, Social Life, Civic Engagement, Life Evaluation, Negative Experience. By combining two global datasets from Gallup and WHO, the study adds to current evidence by taking a global perspective. Controlling for demographic factors such as income per capita, age, education level, employment, etc., regression modelling of these relationships show that clean cooking fuels are influential in all of the key wellbeing indices with the exception of the Life Evaluation Index. Among the key wellbeing indices, Personal Health and Negative Experience Indices are the most strongly influenced by choice of clean cooking fuels. By adding access to electricity as an additional predictor variable, the analysis highlights the potential for integrating eCooking into national electrification plans as part of sustainable energy transitions, given that health outcomes (Personal health and Negative experience indices) appear to be as closely linked to choice of cooking fuels as to access to electricity.

In this study, the partial least squares regression (PLSR) models were developed using no pre-processing, traditional preprocessing, multi-preprocessing 5 range, multi-preprocessing 3 range, genetic algorithm (GA), and successive projection algorithm (SPA) to assess the higher heating value (HHV) and ultimate analysis of grounded biomass for energy usage employing near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. A novel approach was utilized based on the assumption that using multiple pretreatment methods across different sections in the entire NIR wavenumber range would enhance the performance of the model. The performance of the model obtained from 200 biomass samples for HHV and 120 samples for ultimate analysis was compared, and the best model was selected based on the coefficient of determination of validation set, root mean square error of prediction, and the ratio of prediction to deviation values. Based on model performance results, the proposed HHV model from GA-PLSR, and the N and O models from the mul-ti-preprocessing PLSR 5 range method could be used for most applications, including research, whereas the C and H models from GA-PLSR performance is fair and applicable only for rough screening. The overall findings highlight that the multi-preprocessing 5-range method, which was attempted as a novel approach in this study to develop the PLSR model, demonstrated better accuracy for HHV, C, N, and O, improving by 4.1839%, 8.1842%, 3.7587%, and 35.9404%, respec-tively. Therefore, it can be considered a reliable and non-destructive alternative method for rap-idly assessing biomass properties for energy usage and can also be used effectively in biomass trading. However, due to the smaller number of samples used in the model development, more samples are needed to update the model for a robust application.

It is common knowledge that estimating the height component of GNSS stations in general is much more problematic than estimating the horizontal position. Many different effects, such as tectonic signals, non-tectonic signals, atmospheric delay, noise, etc., are known to affect the height component of GNSS stations more than the horizontal component. However, the height component of GNSS stations is still poorly estimated. In this study, the height time series of 37 continuous GNSS stations covering the 2014–2019 date range is used from the Turkish National Permanent GNSS Network-Active (TUSAGA-Active). Since it is easier to interpret the effects of the height component due to its topographic features and seasonal changes being more effective than in the rest of the country, stations were chosen in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. The daily coordinates of the GNSS stations were obtained as a result of the GAMIT/GLOBK software solution. By applying time series analysis to the daily coordinate values of the stations, statistically significant trends, periodic and stochastic components of the stations were determined. As a result of the analysis, the vertical velocities of the GNSS stations and the standard deviations of the vertical velocities were determined. Furthermore, when the height components of continuous GNSS stations were examined, it was seen that there were seasonal effects, and it was investigated whether the height components were related to meteorological parameters. For that, simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine how dependent the height components of the continuous GNSS stations were on meteorological parameters. As a result of the analysis, the height components of the continuous GNSS stations are dependent on meteorological parameters such as temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. In addition, height component time series analysis of continuous GNSS stations was performed by using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models from linear time series methods. As a result of the study, the performance of the ARMA modeling results again indicated the dependence of the height component of the continuous GNSS stations on the meteorological parameters.

In this study we propose a semi-parametric, parsimonious Value at Risk forecasting model, based on quantile regression and machine learning methods, combined with readily available market prices of option contracts from the over-the-counter foreign exchange rate interbank market. We aim at improving existing methods for VaR prediction of currency investments using machine learning. We employ two different methods - ensemble methods and neural networks. Explanatory variables are implied volatilities with plausible economic interpretation. The forward-looking nature of the model, achieved by the application of implied volatilities as risk factors, ensures that new information is rapidly reflected in Value at Risk estimates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to utilize information in the volatility surface, combined with machine learning and quantile regression, for VaR prediction of currency investments. The proposed ensemble models achieve good estimates across all quantiles. The light gra-dient-boosting machine model and the categorical boosting model both yield estimates which are better than, or equal to, those of the benchmark model. The neural network models are in general quite unstable.

Geometrical assessments of human skull have been done based on the anatomical landmarks. Automatic detection of the landmarks, if developed, will be a great help not only medically, but also anthropologically. An automated system with multi-phased deep learning networks to predict three-dimensional coordinate values of cranio-facial landmarks, was developed. From a publicly available database, computed tomography images of craniofacial area were obtained. They were digitally reconstructed into three-dimensional models. Sixteen anatomical landmarks were plotted on each of the models and coordinate values of them were recorded. Three-phased regression deep learning networks were trained respectively with 90 training datasets. For evaluation, 30 testing datasets were employed. Three-dimensional error for the first phase, testing 30 data, was 11.60 pixels in average. (1 pixel = 500 / 512 mm) For the second phase, it was significantly improved to 4.66 pixels. For the third phase, it was significantly progressed to 2.88. This was comparable to the gaps between the landmarks, plotted by two experienced practitioners. Our proposing method of multi-phased prediction, coarse detection first and narrowing down the detection area, may be a possible solution, within the physical limitation of memory and computation.

Background—In 2011, Miller and Goldman published a study in Human and Experimental Toxicology that found a counterintuitive, positive correlation, r = 0.70 (r² = 0.49, p < .0001), demonstrating that as nations require more vaccine doses for their infants, infant mortality rates (IMRs) tend to increase (worsen). The dataset (n = 30) included the United States, a nation that required the most vaccines for their infants, and all nations with better IMRs than the United States. Dr. E. Bailey, a professor at BYU, and her students, recently read the Miller-Goldman study and found it "troublesome that this manuscript is in the top 5% of all research outputs" and falsely claimed that its findings were due to "inappropriate data exclusion," i.e., failure to analyze the "full dataset" of all 185 nations. The "Bailey reanalysis," titled Infant vaccination does not predict increased infant mortality rate: correcting past misinformation, was posted to the medRxiv preprint server on September 10, 2021 (version 1) and October 5, 2021 (version 3) and Europe PMC preprint server on September 10, 2021. Objective—This present study examines the various claims postulated by the Bailey reanalysis and assesses the robustness of their methodology, analyses, and reported results and conclusions. Methods—Data discussed in this paper are based on the previously mentioned study by Miller and Goldman and the Bailey reanalysis. Results—Linear regression analysis of IMR and the number of vaccine doses for each country yield a statistically significant positive correlation of r = 0.70 (p < .0001) for the top nations (n = 30) chosen by Miller-Goldman and r = 0.16 (p < .04) for the "entire dataset" chosen by Bailey et al (n = 185). Bailey also conducted linear regression analyses (for the year 2019) of IMRs as a function of vaccination rates for each of eight different vaccines and reported statistically significant inverse correlations for 7 of 8 vaccines over the entire range of vaccination rates. However, Miller and Goldman reanalyzed the Bailey analyses for nations with vaccination rates below 60% and found no statistically significant correlation for six vaccines (DPT, Hib, hepatitis B, polio, rotavirus, and measles) and statistically significant positive correlations for tuberculosis (r = 0.8, p < .005) and pneumococcal (r = 0.6 p < .023) vaccines. Conclusions—Bailey’s reanalysis corroborates a statistically significant positive correlation originally reported by Miller and Goldman. However, Bailey’s reported correlation (r = +0.16, p < .04) is small, likely due to poor methodology (failing to account for covariates, i.e., disparities among numerous socioeconomic factors that add uncertainty to their conclusion). The r-value reported by the Bailey reanalysis demonstrates an effect size that is about one-fourth (0.16/0.70) that reported by Miller-Goldman—underscoring how critically important it is for Bailey's reanalysis to eliminate confounding variables. Moreover, Bailey’s linear regression analyses of IMR as a function of vaccination rates for each of eight different vaccines demonstrate that some countries with low vaccination rates have low IMRs, while other countries with high vaccination rates have high IMRs. Rather than supporting a strong inverse correlation, the Bailey reanalysis demonstrates high vaccination rates are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause low IMR.

The study uses annual time series data from the South Africa Reverse Bank (SARB) from 1980 to 2020 to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy on economic growth in South Africa. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, as well as the Johansen Co-integration test, Granger causality test, and Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) method, were used in the study. Real GDP per capita (RGDP) is used as proxy of economic growth and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), government expenditure (GEXP) and government deficit (GOVD) as the proxies of fiscal policy. The ADF test results show that all variables are stationary at the first difference, with the exception of GFCF and GEXP, which are stationary at I(0), whereas the PP test results show that all variables are stationary at I(1), with the exception of GEXP, which is stationary at I(0). At Maximum Eigenvalue, the four variables are not cointegrated. The findings of the Granger causality test demonstrated a unidirectional causation from GOVD to RGDP, as well as a bidirectional causality from RGDP to GFCF and GEXP. Error Correction Model Estimated using VAR shows that GFCF, GEXP have positive effect on RGDP whereas GOVD has a negative effect on RGDP in the short run. The findings also presented that the VAR's residuals are homoscedastic, which means they are normally distributed and have no serial correlation.

The space gravitational wave detection and drag free control requires the micro-thruster to have very low thrust noise within 0.1mHz~100mHz, which poses a great challenge to the ground thrust test. The evaluation and decoupling of thermal noise are the difficulties in the application of torsion balance for most thrusters dissipate heat in the experiment. The research has adopted a calibration scheme of micro-Newton thrust torsion balance. On the basis of Lisa Pathfinder's former research and using ideas inspired from PID control and multi time scale (MTS) for reference, the paper proposes to expand the state space of temperature to be applied on thrust prediction based on fine tree regression (FTR), to subtract the thermal noise filtered by transfer function fitted with z-domain vector fitting (ZDVF). The results show that the thrust amplitude thrust density in diurnal temperature fluctuation is decoupled from 24μN/Hz1/2 to 4.9μN/Hz1/2 at 0.11mHz. And the 1μN square wave modulations of electrostatic fins (ESF) is extracted from the simultaneously ambiguous background of temperature for PTC's heating and cooling. The FTR method is well demonstrated in thermal noise decoupling and can guide the design of thermal control and be extended to other physical quantities for noise decoupling.

Cold chain logistics of Agricultural Products demand forecasting can provide the scientific basis for the country to formulate logistics strategy, which further promotes the development of social economy and the improvement of living standards in China. In this paper, a new mathematical combined model is proposed to Agricultural Products Demand. Shandong, one of a China’s province, serves as the main producer and distributor of agricultural products. Based on the index system created from multiple related factors influencing cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, this paper employs principal component analysis to reduce the dimension of various indexes and predicts principal components with time series. Thereafter, multiple linear regression model and neural network model were constructed to forecast the cold chain logistics demand of agricultural products in Shandong, and their combined forecast models were compared. What's more, the paper provides insight for reference and decision-making concerning the development of cold chain logistics industry of agricultural products in Shandong province.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

The COVID-19 pandemic situation, disease intensity, weak healthcare facilities, unawareness, and misinformation led people to fear and anxiety in Bangladesh. This study intended to get peoples’ perception on psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental crisis amidst the pandemi. An online questionnaire was surveyed nationwide (respondents no.1066). Datasets were analyzed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental parameters. A significant association between fear of COVID-19 with struggling healthcare system (p<0.05) was found. Also, negative association between fragile health system and government’s ability to deal with the pandemic (p<0.05) revealing poor governance. Again, a positive association of shutdown and social distancing with fear of losing life, and due to lack of health treatment (p<0.05) reveals that shut down hampers normal activities which may lead to mental and economic stress. However, a positive association of socio-economic impact of the shutdown with poor people’s suffering, the price hike of basic need, hamper of formal education (p<0.05) may lead to severe socio-economic and health crisis. There is a possibility of climate-induced disaster during/after the pandemic, which will create severe food insecurity (p<0.01). Daily wage earners and poors will suffer most by food and nutritional deficiency, and the country may face huge economic burden. Proper risk assessment and communications is needed to alleviate fear and anxiety. Thus, financial support and mental boosting is required.

This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.

Time recordings of impulse-type oscillation responses are short and highly transient. These characteristics may complicate the usage of classical spectral signal processing techniques for a) describing the dynamics and b) deriving discriminative features from the data. However, common model identification and validation techniques mostly rely on steady-state recordings, characteristic spectral properties and non-transient behavior. In this work, a recent method, which allows reconstructing differential equations from time series data, is extended for higher degrees of automation. With special focus on short and strongly damped oscillations, an optimization procedure is proposed that fine-tunes the reconstructed dynamical models with respect to model simplicity and error reduction. This framework is analyzed with particular focus on the amount of information available to the reconstruction, noise contamination and non-linearities contained in the time series input. Using the example of a mechanical oscillator, we illustrate how the optimized reconstruction method can be used to identify a suitable model and to extract features from uni-variate and multivariate time series recordings in an engineering-compliant environment. Moreover, the determined minimal models allow for identifying the qualitative nature of the underlying dynamical systems as well as testing for the degree and strength of non-linearity. The reconstructed differential equations would then be potentially available for classical numerical studies, such as bifurcation analysis. These results represent a physically interpretable enhancement of data-driven modeling approaches in structural dynamics.

This paper provides an in-depth comparative analysis of three prominent machine learning techniques: decision trees, neural networks, and Bayesian networks. Each method is explored in terms of its theoretical foundations, algorithmic structure, strengths, limitations, and real-world applications. Decision trees are celebrated for their simplicity and interpretability, making them ideal for decision-making systems, but they often struggle with overfitting and poor performance on high-dimensional data. Neural networks, while capable of achieving high accuracy and effectively handling complex, non-linear patterns, are criticized for their "black-box" nature and computational intensity. Bayesian networks distinguish themselves through their ability to model uncertainty and incorporate prior knowledge, making them highly applicable in scenarios requiring probabilistic reasoning, yet they are challenging to scale for complex, high-dimensional data sets. This comparative analysis highlights the distinctive advantages of each method, their performance across various domains such as healthcare, finance, and risk assessment, and the growing potential of hybrid models that combine the strengths of these techniques. The paper concludes by discussing future research opportunities, particularly in enhancing model interpretability and scalability while addressing domain-specific challenges.

Dengue fever is a persistent public health issue in tropical regions, including Vietnam, where climate variability plays a crucial role in disease transmission dynamics. This study focuses on developing climate-based machine learning models to forecast dengue outbreaks in Ba Ria Vung Tau (BRVT) province, Vietnam, using meteorological data from 2003 to 2022. We utilized four predictive models—Negative Binomial Regression (NBR), Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—to predict weekly dengue incidence. Key climate variables, including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, were integrated into these models, with lagged variables included to capture delayed climatic effects on dengue transmission. The NBR model demonstrated the best performance in terms of predictive accuracy, achieving the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to other models. The inclusion of lagged climate variables significantly enhanced the model’s ability to predict dengue cases. SARIMAX and LSTM models, although effective in capturing seasonal trends, struggled with overfitting and failed to accurately predict short-term outbreaks. XGBoost exhibited moderate predictive power but was sensitive to overfitting, particularly without fine-tuning. Our findings confirm that climate-based machine learning models, particularly the NBR model, offer valuable tools for forecasting dengue outbreaks in BRVT. However, improving the models’ ability to predict short-term peaks remains a challenge. The integration of meteorological data into early warning systems is crucial for public health authorities to plan timely and effective interventions. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on climate-based disease forecasting and underscores the need for further model refinement to address the complexities of dengue transmission in highly endemic regions.

Background: The present work aimed to estimate the economic impact of PTSD following COVID-19 in a population of patients affected by systemic autoimmune disease (SAD) using a cost-of-illness approach and accounting for the perspective of society. Methods: Considering data collected from SAD patients enrolled in a specialized outpatient clinic in the Tuscany region, Italy, generalized-linear-models and LASSO logistic regression were used to evaluate the impact of PTSD on costs and its relevance as possible predictors of being a high-cost patient, respectively. Results: Considering 301 SAD patients, 161 (51.2%) of whom diagnosed with PTSD, the overall costs were 3,670 [890;40,529] Euro per patient/year among patients with PTSD and 2,736.7 [283;21,078] Euro per patient/year among those without PTSD (P-value<0.001), with differences mainly attributable to significantly greater direct non-healthcare and indirect costs. PTSD was estimated to increase overall costs (β=0.296 (0.140), P-value=0.035), direct non-healthcare (β =1.193 (0.392), P-value =0.002) and indirect costs (β =3.741 (1.136), P-value =0.001). PTSD diagnosis was also significantly associated with the likelihood of being a high-cost patient. Conclusions: Findings from the present study offer a novel perspective on the economic impact of COVID-19 and provide valuable data for policymakers to better understand demand for healthcare services and associated costs.

In the dynamic realm of agribusiness construction, firms are striving to bolster their operational efficiency and profitability amidst the global shift from traditional farming to commercial agriculture. This transition has intensified the demand for sophisticated infrastructure development, presenting new challenges for commercial managers. A critical hurdle is the accurate estimation of profitability for prospective contracts, a task often reliant on intuition rather than data-driven methods. To address this, we propose the development of a mathematical model utilising machine learning techniques to predict contract profitability and identify influential factors. This model aims to aid in bid decision-making, financial forecasting, and enhancing competitiveness in the marketplace. Furthermore, it would provide valuable insights into how altering specific contract attributes might affect predicted profitability. The implementation of such a system necessitates close collaboration between IT professionals and construction executives. This study delineates the development of this predictive model, outlining the data analysis process and the application of machine learning algorithms to tackle this complex commercial challenge. The ultimate goal is to bridge the gap between intuitive estimation and data-driven prediction, thereby enhancing the financial performance and strategic decision-making capabilities of firms in the agribusiness construction sector.

In this study, we address the need for improved landslide forecasting by exploring innovative machine learning approaches to classify shallow landslide events. Focusing on Ometepe Island, Nicaragua, known for its susceptibility to hydrometeorological incidents and seismic activities, we constructed a comprehensive shallow landslide database using coherence layers derived from SAR images. We applied coherence thresholds ranging from 0.9 to 0.99, in conjunction with 7-day aggregated spatio-temporal precipitation data. By employing machine learning models such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Classifier, we established a correlation between precipitation patterns and landslide occurrences. The Support Vector Classifier with a Sigmoidal kernel proved to be the most effective, achieving an F1 score of 0.67. Our results demonstrate a linkage between precipitation and landslide events, confirming the critical role of rainfall over 7-day periods in triggering these events. The study also indicates that, while rainfall is a crucial factor, it is not the sole trigger for landslides, as seismic activities also play a significant role. This research contributes valuable insights into landslide prediction and risk assessment, underscoring the potential of machine learning in enhancing environmental hazard analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has posed unprecedented challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we have identified proteomic and genetic signatures for improved prognosis which is vital for COVID-19 research. Methods: We investigated the proteomic and genomic profile of COVID-19 positive patients (n=400 for proteomics, n=483 for genomics), focusing on differential regulation between hospitalised and non-hospitalised COVID-19 patients. Signatures had their predictive capabilities tested using independent machine learning models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Logistic Regression (LR). Results: This study has identified 224 differentially expressed proteins in hospitalised COVID-19 patients compared to non-hospitalised COVID-19 patients, involved in various inflammatory and immunological pathways. LGALS9 (p-value < 0.001), LAMP3 (p-value < 0.001), PRSS8 (p-value < 0.001) and AGRN (p-value < 0.001), were identified as the most statistically significant proteins. Several hundred rsIDs were queried across the top 10 significant signatures, identifying three significant SNPs on the FSTL3 gene showing correlation with hospitalisation status. Conclusion: Our study has not only identified key signatures of COVID-19 patients with worsened health but has also demonstrated their predictive capabilities as potential biomarkers, which suggests a staple role in the worsened health effects caused by COVID-19.

This study evaluated ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of aerosols and criteria pollutants using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis dataset over the Himawari-8 observational land area, including China, Indonesia, and Australia, for the past eight years. A square root transformation of the data was used to normalize and mitigate skewness. Monthly-hourly long-term averages were subtracted to determine abnormalities and identify significant pollution events. Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) and the Jacobian matrix (dY/dX) methods were used to determine the spatial variability in pollutant concentrations and correlations with meteorological factors. The findings revealed complex interactions between atmospheric dynamics, such as wind components, specific humidity, and pollutant distribution. The analysis highlighted the limitations of traditional point monitoring methods and the need for incident-based spatiotemporal approaches to understand pollution dynamics. This comprehensive evaluation, covering roughly 10% of the globe, demonstrated CAMS's effectiveness in providing detailed insights into air quality trends, which can support targeted public health interventions and compliance with sustainability goals. Integrating CAMS data with high-resolution satellite data like Himawari-8 could revolutionize air quality monitoring by delivering dynamic, near real-time outputs with high spatiotemporal resolution.

Coseismic landslides have the potential to cause catastrophic disasters. Thus, it is of crucial importance to conduct a comprehensive regional assessment of susceptibility to coseismic landslides. This study rigorously interprets 13,759 coseismic landslides triggered by the 2022 Luding earthquake within the seismic zone. Employing the Newmark method, we systematically assess the susceptibility to coseismic landslides through the application of six distinct displacement regression models. The efficacy of these models is validated against the actual landslide inventory using the area under the curve. A hazard map of coseismic landslides is generated based on the displacement regression model with the highest degree of fit. The results show that Moxi Town, Detuo Town, the flanks of the Daduhe River, Wandonghe River, Hailuogou River, and Yanzigou River are high susceptibility areas for coseismic landslides. The study explores factors influencing model fit, revealing that the inclusion of both epicentral distance and the distance to seismogenic fault and in displacement prediction enhances model performance. Nevertheless, in close proximity to fault zones, the distance to seismogenic fault exerts a more significant influence on the spatial distribution density of coseismic landslides compared to the epicentral distance. Conversely, in regions situated further from fault zones, the epicentral distance has a greater impact on the spatial distribution density of coseismic landslides compared to the distance to seismogenic fault. These findings contribute to a nuanced understanding of coseismic landslide susceptibility and offer valuable insights for future Newmark method-based coseismic landslide displacement calculations.