Although there is a vast body of neuroscientific research on cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), many therapists are confused about how to incorporate the evidence into their clinical practice. This narrative review translates neuroscientific research on CBT for depression into a therapist-friendly formulation model. Four brain networks that are particularly relevant to depression, including the Central Executive Network, Default mode Network, Salience Network, and Affective Network, were identified based on their interactions and described in relation to depressive symptoms. Additionally, it clarified how each CBT technique works on a brain map. Assessment, intervention selection, and patient psychoeducation based on this model will facilitate the clinical application of neuroscience in CBT.

In his Cynefin classification of system behaviours, Snowden (2007), posits that his Simple (Clear ) and even Complicated system categories are sufficiently understandable to be amenable to the traditional methods of system analysis and modelling. Here, relationships between entities in the system are clear and unambiguous and they behave predictably. So, we can build mathematical “models” to describe how the system is expected to function in different situations. Leaving aside his fourth category, Chaotic, as too hard for the moment, this paper focusses on the third category, Complex systems. Yaneer Bar-Yam [1998] defined "complex systems" as systems that "have multiple interacting components, whose collective behaviour cannot be simply inferred from the behaviour of components." So, the traditional system modelling approach of decomposition into components and attempting to build up a picture of system performance from individual pieces, alone, is no longer appropriate for this class. The problem is that most of the methods we currently employ, and particularly the methods that attempt to make the case that these systems are safe, (such as Fault trees, FMEA. and Root Cause Analysis), rely on this decomposition into components and attempt to make the parts more reliable individually. Even the more systemic approaches, such as Reason’s (1990) Swiss Cheese Model, and Leveson’s System Theoretic Analysis (STPA) (2004), encourage adding layers of protection, barriers, strengthened control loops and better safety critical systems, in the hope that they are making the systems safer. But without a valid model to test the effectiveness of these add-ons, we cannot be sure that they will not have an opposite effect, of making the systems even more complex, unreliable and unpredictable. For complex systems, the careful gathering and documentation of system components and their relationships is still a necessary first step, but we need an additional capacity to model these complex systems to test out and prove they work safely and successfully in the real world. (not just draw fixed component relationships as system “models” (wiring diagrams)) In the last 10 years, an original approach developed by Hollnagel, (2012), to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions”, (abstracted from and independent of component details), has now been developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component focussed system engineering “models”, such as MBSE( Goldberg (1994)), and can pull it all together in a dynamic system model from which analysts can discern how it really works in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. The paper describes how this methodology developed and how it is currently used to model real situations, to analyse incidents and anticipate events.

Lightning is responsible for most annually burned area by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm designed to run on a uniform 20-km grid over the Continental USA and Alaska. The algorithm consists of a large set of logistic equations parameterized via logistic regression using long-term data records of observed lightning strikes and meteorological reanalysis fields from NOAA. Principal Component Analysis was employed to extract 13 Principal Components (strong predictors) from a list of 611 potential predictors. Our statistical analysis revealed that the occurrence of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes primarily depends on three factors: horizontal temperature distribution by pressure levels, amount of low-level atmospheric moisture, and wind vectors. These physical variables impact the vertical separation of electric charges in the lower troposphere during storms causing the voltage potential between ground and the cloud deck to increase to a level that triggers electrical discharges. Results from a forecast verification using independent data showed excellent model skill, thus making this algorithm suitable for inclusion into software systems forecasting the chance of wildfire ignitions.

Introduction: Overuse of antibiotics has been increasing in recent years and is currently the most prescribed drug in the paediatric age. It is estimated that 72% of patients in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are treated with antibiotics. One of the effects observed with their use is the alteration of the microbiota, which is associated with metabolic disorders including obesity. In this study, the aim was to determine in newborn rats, whether most commonly prescribed antibiotics in Mexican NICUs have a differential effect on weight gain, development of adiposity, and modification of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. Methods: This is an experimental study in newborn rats, comparing Ampicillin/Meropenem (Access/Watch groups) 100 mg/g every 12 h /10 mg/g every 12 h (each of these two antibiotics was adjusted to the required dosages based on weight); Cefotaxime 200 mg/g every 24 h; (Watch group) and Amikacin 15 mg/g every 24 h (Access group) versus Saline Solution as Control. Each antibiotic was intraperitoneal administered daily for 5 days in males (to avoid gender differences) to 14 newborn rats in each group. A comparison of anthropometric and biochemical parameters registered on day 28 was made using ANOVA analysis. Differences were considered if p < 0.05.Results: Amikacin was the antibiotic with the greatest effect on anthropometric measurements and LDL-cholesterol; as well as Cefotaxime on Glucose and triglycerides, while Meropenem plus Ampicillin showed the weakest effect on measured parameters. Conclusion: The administration of antibiotics in the neonatal stage has repercussions on the body composition of adult rats, as well as on lipids and carbohydrates serum levels. Future studies might evaluate the toxicity of antibiotics on the immature neonatal organs.

This study aims to determine the impact of the type of ICT usage on household income from main vegetables, agriculture (including main vegetables), and total income. This study is based on surveys and interviews with vegetable farmers using structured questionnaires conducted in three villages in Indonesia, including Cianjur, Sleman, and Malang in West Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java, respectively. The data were collected from 375 respondents selected in each region from November 2021 to March 2022. An econometric model called the multivariate linear regression (MLR) model is used to assess heterogeneous factors that influence the possibility of increasing the income of vegetable farmers. The study found that variables that use ICT as a primary variable, household, marketing, geographical characteristics, and immediate source information in agriculture have a significant impact on household income (P < 0.01) from primary vegetables, agriculture, and total income, with multiple R squares of 70.5, 72.0, 73.7% and F statistics of 28.48, 30.66, and 33.34, respectively. In summary, this novel study shows that the five categories of information technology used in farming and selling of harvest have a positive impact on household incomes

The detrimental consequences of soil pollution caused by crude oil or petroleum products are immense, leading to land degradation, property damage, and rendering agricultural practices ineffective. Extensive research has been conducted in the field of soil remediation, but further studies are still required to explore additional details of the remedial process. As a result, this study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of Vernonia Galamensis and Vernonia Amygdalina, commonly known as bitter leaf, in remediating hydrocarbon-contaminated soil. In the analysis of micro-organisms, it was found that the bitter leaf extracts contained three types of bacteria: Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli. The leaf extracts were prepared using different methods, including sun drying, room drying, and using them in their wet form, which were then blended into the contaminated soil. The study also took into consideration three different types of soil: sandy-loamy soil, clay soil, and swamp soil. These advanced techniques and considerations are relevant to the topic of revolutionizing soil remediation, as they explore the potential of bitter leaf extracts and different soil types in effectively mitigating the effects of hydrocarbon contamination.The findings revealed that the wet blended extracts of Vernonia performed exceptionally well in the remediation process, surpassing a 50% reduction in the initial contamination levels. The study involved utilizing a quantity of bitter leaf ranging from 10g to 40g, which was added to the contaminated soils and monitored for a duration of 40 days. Remarkably, this approach led to a significant decrease in the concentration of contaminants within the soil, indicating the effectiveness of the bitter leaf extracts in the remediation process. Towards the conclusion of the study, predictive models were constructed to forecast the impact of hydrocarbon content, as well as the levels of lead, zinc, and chromium in the soil. These variables served as the dependent variables in the models, while the mass of bitter leaf, the duration of treatment, and the pH of the soil were considered as independent variables. Significantly, the models achieved a level of significance of less than 0.05, indicating their statistical validity. Furthermore, the r2 value, which represents the goodness of fit, demonstrated an appreciable level of accuracy in predicting the remediation effects. These results highlight the potential of the developed models in assessing and predicting the remedial outcomes of hydrocarbon contamination using bitter leaf extract.

This paper serves as a seamless continuation of the previous work titled "Special Spirals are Produced by the ROTASE Galactic Spiral Equations with the Sequential Prime Numbers." Upon revisiting the data, a noteworthy observation emerged: the special spirals can be meticulously aligned with the prime spiral on a point-by-point basis through careful scaling and rotation for the parameter ρ remaining a constant greater than one. As ρ increases, both the scaling factor and rotation angle exhibit a corresponding augmentation, albeit with an intriguing caveat—the rotation angle asymptotically approaches its limit of 90°. Notably, the galactic spiral can be perceived as a remarkably close approximation of the Archimedean spiral, with the degree of proximity increasing as ρ grows larger. Furthermore, an intriguing correspondence arises when ρ takes on a value of 1; at this value, the galactic spiral bears a striking resemblance to the Fermat spiral, the space between two consecutive spiral loops undergoes a continuous reduction as the loop's radius expands, yet it never diminishes to zero; simultaneously, the area between two successive loops experiences an augmentation with the value of ρ.

The evaluation of tourism sustainability has become of paramount importance for researchers and decision-makers to better protect tourist destinations, especially with the continuous increase in the number of tourists and visitors that alter the natural components of the environment and degrade ecosystems. Therefore, the use of geographical data is of great significance, particularly in environmental monitoring and land management, due to its ease of use and availability. However, calculating composite indices for sustainability involves several steps and requires a basic understanding of existing models. This article describes the development and design of a package of plugins in QGIS that serves as an easy-to-use tool for processing and automatically calculating economic, environmental, social indices, and the overall index of tourist sustainability. These plugins have been built in Python and designed as QGIS software plugins.

The crab’s fishery of the genus Callinectes is one of the most important fisheries in Mexico. Sonora and Sinaloa are the states in the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, the mainland coast. Sinaloa encompass the greatest production in Mexico of these species, in particular the Bahía Santa Maria La Reforma (BSMR), supply the most important catches. An administrative mandatory document for the fishery is the Management Plan of Crab. One of the main weaknesses found in it for Sonora and Sinaloa is the lack of fisheries assessment in both states. For this reason, a structured size method called CASA (Catch at Size Analysis) was applied in the BSMR, in the seasons 2000, 2011 and 2014 to C. bellicosus. The first catch size (CW50%) estimated for females were 97.5, 102.5 and 100 mm, while in males it was estimated at 117.5, 107.5 and 102.5 mm. In the specific case of fishing mortality (F), the algorithm allowed us to detect that in the larger sizes the greater fishing pressure is applied for both, females and males, yielding a weighted exploitation rate of 0.047 (2000), 0.119 (2011) and 0.426 (2014) for females and 0.045 (2000), 0.295 (2011) and 0.132 (2014) for males, all below 50% (E= 0.50), crab C. bellicosus in BSMR is not at risk of over exploitation.

Resource pricing in cloud computing has become one of the main challenges for cloud providers. The challenge is determining a fair and appropriate price to satisfy users and resource providers. To determine a fair price, it is necessary to consider the conditions and needs of both parties: provider and user. This research tries to provide a pricing mechanism for cloud computing based on game theory. The proposed mechanism takes into account three factors including fault possibility, interaction between virtual machines, and energy consumption to reach a fair price. In the proposed game, the provider decides on the price of the virtual machine which can be offered to the user on each physical machine and the user decides between the virtual machines offered to run its application. The whole game is implemented as a function of the resource broker component. The proposed mechanism is simulated and evaluated using the CloudSim simulator. Its performance is compared with several previous recent mechanisms. According to the results, the proposed mechanism has been able to determine a more reasonable price for the user and the provider which increases the overall profitability of the cloud system.

In this work, quiescence is added to the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model with demography. In order to investigate consequences of quiescence in the infection process in more depth, we use stochastic simulations on the stochastic version of model that we built. This method provides a more accurate picture of the dynamics of infectious diseases by taking into consideration the inherent randomness in the disease processes. We examine the effects of quiescence on the number of infected people using simulations. The results, presented in histograms depicting the distribution of infected individuals, reveal a notable trend: the mean number of infected individuals is higher when quiescence is incorporated into the dynamics. These finding emphasizes the dynamic influence of quiescence on infectious disease spread. The higher mean number of infections during periods of quiescence highlights the need for public health strategies that are flexible enough to focused interventions during these times to reduce the possibility of an increase in infections.

The crosslinking behavior of polyethylene (PE) determines its exceptional performance and application. In this study, we investigated the crosslinking behaviors of different PE resins through model simulation and rheological methods. Specifically, the mathematical equation of "S" model was established for PE resin. According to this equation, the optimal maximum gel content for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) was found to be around 85%. Moreover, the maximum crosslinking degrees for different PE resins depended largely on their density and molecular weight. The melt viscosities before crosslinking in PE resins were highly influenced by their melt index. The higher melt indexes resulted in the lower storage moduli, improving melt processability during processing. In addition, the crosslinking rates of PE resins were strongly influenced by peroxide concentration, independent of PE resin structures. For high molecular weight and low-density PE resins, they exhibited decreased ti values, increased A0 values, and decreased k6 values. However, there were no noticeable variations in the values of k2 and phi among different PE resins. And all simulated modeling outcomes showed the remarkable consistency with the experimental rheological data. These findings are of utmost significance in the industrial manufacture of PE resin.

The realm of natural language processing has always been fascinated by the intricacies of sentence semantics. The emergence of context-aware word representations, especially from pre-trained models like ELMO and BERT, has revolutionized several semantic tasks including but not limited to, question answering, text categorization, and sentiment analysis. Despite these advancements, the integration of supplementary knowledge, particularly syntactic, to augment semantic comprehension in models remains an area ripe for exploration. This paper introduces the Syntactic Enhancement Network (SEN), a pioneering method for synergizing syntactic elements with established pre-trained language models. Our approach encompasses a dual-phase evaluation: initially, we delve into the syntactic augmentation of both RNN-based and Transformer-based language models; subsequently, we test our SEN's proficiency in two specific domains: the task of sentence completion and the extraction of biological relationships. The results are striking, with SEN achieving a stellar 91.2% accuracy in sentence completion—surpassing baseline models by a substantial 37.8%. In the context of biological relation extraction, SEN demonstrates competitive prowess with a 75.1% F1 score.

Cyberaggression is an important problem today; it can affect adolescents in different ways. Therefore, reliable and valid measures are necessary to better study the phenomenon. The aim of the present study was to generate validity and reliability evidence for a Spanish-language cyberaggression scale in a population of adolescents from northwestern Mexico. The results of this study contribute to the research and focus on cyberaggression in adolescents in Mexico. The measure in this article differs from other measures by detecting the different roles, including the bystander, contributing to the state of knowledge about cyberaggression, ratifying the presence of this actor that has not been sufficiently explored in the cyber context.

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) stands as a debilitating neurodegenerative condition characterized by the progressive degeneration of motor neurons. Despite extensive research in various model animals, the cellular signal mechanisms of ALS remain elusive, impeding the development of efficacious treatments. Among these models, a well-characterized and diminutive organism, Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans), has arisen as a potent tool for investigating the molecular and cellular dimensions of ALS pathogenesis. This review summarizes the contributions of C. elegans models to our comprehension of ALS, emphasizing pivotal findings pertaining to genetics, protein aggregation, cellular pathways, and potential therapeutic strategies. We analyze both the merits and constraints of C. elegans system in the realm of ALS research, and point towards future investigations that could bridge the chasm between C. elegans foundational discoveries and clinical applications.

AbstractTo overcome the negative impacts on the environment and other problems associated with fossil fuels have forced many countries to inquire into and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Solar energy is one of the best renewable energy sources with the least negative impacts on the environment. Different countries have formulated solar energy policies to reduce dependence on fossil fuel and increasing domestic energy production by solar energy. According to the 2010 BP Statistical Energy Survey, the world cumulative installed solar energy capacity was 22928.9 MW in 2009, a change of 46.9% compared to 2008. In this study, a PV generation system has been modeled and installed considering uncertain whether based on the hourly wind speed data of New York City (NYC) of year 2014. Regression models has been used to forecast the hourly, weekly, and monthly wind speed of NYC year 2014. Design of experiment (DOE) has been used to determine the optimal panel size (area), the battery capacity size, and other levels of factors.

Camera malfunctions or loss of storage elements in imaging devices may lead to loss of important image information or random impulse noise interference. Low rank is one of the important prior information in image optimization processing. This paper uses different low-rank constraint models of the image matrices to recover the impulse interference satellite images. Firstly, an overview of image inpainting models based on nuclear norm, truncated nuclear norm, weighted nuclear norm, and matrix-factorization-based F-norm is presented, and corresponding optimiza-tion iterative algorithms are provided. Then, we conducted experiments under three types of pulse interference and provided visual and numerical results. Finally, it is concluded that the WSVT_ADMM method based on the weighted nuclear norm can obtain the best image inpainting results; The UV_ADMM method based on F norm of matrix factorization has the least computa-tion time and can be used for large-scale low-rank matrix computation; The WSVT_ADMM method based on weighted nuclear norm and the TSVT_ ADMM method based on truncated nuclear norms can significantly improve the repair effect compared to the nuclear norm-based methods such as SVT, SVP, and n_ADMM.

Motivated by the intriguing discovery of $X(6900)$ by LHCb Collaboration, we undertake a comprehensive study of the $s\bar{s}s\bar{s}$ tetraquark system in positive parity, employing the Gaussian expansion within the chiral quark model method. We consider two structures, diquark-antidiquark ($ss$-$\bar{s}\bar{s}$) structure and meson-meson ($s\bar{s}$-$s\bar{s}$)strcuture, encompassing all conceivable color and spin configurations. Despite the absence of bound states in our calculations, we have identified potential resonant states with $J^P=0^{+}$, namely $R(0,2150)$ and $R(0,2915)$, as well as a resonant state with $J^P=1^{+}$ denoted as $R(1,2950)$, and a resonant state with $J^P=2^{+}$ denoted as $R(2,2850)$, utilizing the real-scaling method. Through a comparison of their energies and widths, we propose that $R(0,2915)$ and $R(1,2950)$ may share characteristics with $X(6900)$, while $R(0,2150)$ could be a promising experimental candidate for $f_0(2100)$. We strongly advocate for experimental investigations to shed light on the existence and properties of these resonant states.

Many relevant health social actors have voiced concerns about the danger of self-medication in times of growing use of over-the-counter medicines and, in some contexts, unregulated selling of them. Previous research has examined the incidence of parental self-medication as well as the use and abuse of antibiotics without professional advice. However, these studies have limited evidence on the role of family doctors and the perceived severity of self-medication in the case of parents. Based on Health Belief Model, our research tested the effects of exposure to medical information on the perceived level of self-treating the children without medical advice. Specifically, we aimed to assess whether exposure to information warning about the risks of treating children without a medical prescription influences parents' attitudes toward administering medicines to their children without medical advice. The results showed that our respondents evaluated the practices of self-medication negatively, especially when it came to treating their children without medical advice. However, their attitudes towards self-medication varied depending on their beliefs about administering certain medications. Additionally, the results showed that the perceived level of satisfaction with the family physician could be a significant factor in controlling and avoiding the treatment of children without professional advice.

The precipitation, flocculation, and deposition of asphaltene cause severe formation damage within a reservoir and shorten a well’s productive life. Pressure depletion is one factor that contributes to asphaltene precipitation during production; therefore, the first step in managing asphaltene is to determine the onset pressure of the precipitation. While there are numerous equation of state models that can be used to predict the onset pressure, these models are complex and heavily reliant on tuning parameters. Using multivariate linear regression, this work attempts to develop a simple and accurate thermodynamic model for predicting the upper precipitation onset pressure under pressure depletion above the bubble point pressure (Pb) at various temperatures. A total of 94 experimental data points from 37 published crude oil data sets were compiled from the literature. To develop the model, 59 experimental data points were used as training data and 35 experimental data points as testing data. According to the results of the multicollinearity test, the bubble point pressure, temperature, resins, and saturate-to-aromatic ratio were chosen as predictors. The upper onset pressure data with comparable trends were clustered, and unsupervised recognition of three distinct cluster groups was performed. For each cluster identified, a multivariate linear regression model was developed. The model was chosen based on Mallow’s coefficient of determination (Cp), adjusted R² (statistical measure of fit), and S (standard error of the regression slope). The developed model was tested using a data set, and the results showed an adjusted R² of 96.25%, with a mean absolute error of 4.1%. The model was randomly applied to 15 data points to compare it to perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC SAFT) and the Peng-Robinson equation of state models and to the multivariate regression models of Fahim (2007) and Ameli et al. (2016). The results showed that the mean absolute error for predicting the asphaltene precipitation onset pressure was 2.82% using Peng-Robinson, 2.36% using the PC SAFT equation of state, 23.96% using the Fahim model, 24.80% using the model reported by Ameli et al., and 2.39% using the newly developed multivariate regression model. The developed multivariate model appears to be as accurate as the PC SAFT equation of state modeling with tuning parameters. The primary advantage of multivariate regression is that, unlike the PC SAFT equation of state model, it does not require saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA)-based characterization methodologies or rigorous parameter tuning. It is simple to use, quick, and it produces results in a short period of time.

Renewable energy research becomes increasingly necessary as it grows in importance. Wind turbines are an excellent method of harnessing wind energy, which is one of the most important renewable energy sources. In light of the importance of studying wind turbine performance, this study describes the background and principles of wind turbine operation. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to evaluate the hydrodynamic performance of two types of offshore and onshore wind turbines. Mechanical power and thrust force are calculated using the CFD model for both types of turbines in a steady state based on the number of blades and rotors. The results of three-dimensional simulations are compared with those of experimental testing. Based on the method and assumptions used, the offshore turbine's mechanical torque showed an average deviation of about 4%. Increased wind speed increased mechanical power and thrust, while turbulence caused irregular pressure distributions on surfaces as a result of turbulence intensity. Furthermore, as the free wind speed increases, the blade tip and hub speed will also increase, expanding the vortices created by that flow.

A model to rationalize the effects of test temperature and microstructural variables on the creep crack growth (CCG) and creep-fatigue crack growth (CFCG) rates in ferritic steels is described. The model predicts that as the average spacing between grain boundary particles that initiate creep cavities decrease, the CCG and CFCG rates increase. Further, CCG data at several temperatures collapse into a single trend when a temperature compensated CCG rate derived from the model is used. CCG and CFCG behavior measured at different temperatures is used to assess the effects of variables such as differences between basemetal (BM), weldmetal (WM) and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) regions. The model is demonstrated for Grade 22 and Grade 91 steels using data from literature. It is shown that differences between the CCG behavior of Grade 22 steel in new and ex-service conditions are negligible in the BM and WM regions but not in the HAZ region. The CCG behavior of Grade 91 steels can be separated into creep-ductile and creep-brittle regions. The creep-brittle tendency is linked to the presence of excess trace element concentrations in the material chemistry. Significant differences found in the CCG rates between BM and the WM and HAZ regions of Grade 91 steel were explained.

It is known that the source of a tectonic earthquake in the framework of the theory of elasticity and viscoelasticity is considered as a displacement along a certain fault surface. Usually, when describing the source, the geometry of the fault surface is simplified to a flat rectangular area. The displacement vector is assumed to be constant. In this paper, we propose a model of an earthquake source in the form of a displacement with a constant vector along a stochastic surface. A number of standard assumptions were made when modeling. We take into account only the elastic properties of the medium. We consider the Earth’s crust as a half-space and assume that the medium is homogeneous and isotropic. For the mathematical description of the earthquake source, we use the classical force equivalent of displacement along the fault. This is the distribution of double pairs of forces. The field of displacements under the action of body forces is found through a combination of Mindlin nuclei of strain. The paper presents solutions for strike-slip fault. To obtain a stochastic fault surface, we propose to introduce a random deformation of a rectangular flat surface. The paper presents the results of a computational experiment comparing the levels and regions of relative deformations of the Earth’s crust in the case of displacement along a flat rupture surface and along a stochastic one. In the case of a stochastic surface, the regions of relative deformations become asymmetric. The developed model will help to indirectly take into account various mechanical properties of the Earth’s crust when modeling deformations caused by earthquakes.

An attempt has been made to explore the relative contributions of moisture feedback processes on tropical intraseasonal oscillation or Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). We focused on moisture feedback processes, including evaporation wind feedback (EWF) and moisture convergence feedback (MCF), which integrates the mechanisms of convective interactions in the tropical atmosphere. The dynamical framework considered here is a moisture-coupled, single-layer linear shallow-water model on an equatorial beta-plane with zonal momentum damping. With this simple approach, we aimed to recognize the minimal physical mechanisms responsible for the existence of the essential dispersive characteristics of the MJO, including its eastward propagation(k>0), the planetary-scale (small zonal wavenumbers) instability, and the slow phase speed of about ≈ 5 m/sec. Further, we extended our study to determine each feedback mechanism’s influence on the simulated eastward dispersive mode. Our model emphasized that the MJO-like eastward mode is a possible outcome of the combined effect of moisture feedback processes without requiring additional complex mechanisms such as cloud radiative feedback and boundary layer dynamics. The results substantiate the importance of EWF as an energy source for developing eastward moisture mode with a planter-scale instability. Moreover, our model endorses that the MCF alone could not produce instability without surface fluxes, although it has a significant role in developing deep convection. It is found that the MCF exhibits a damping mechanism by regulating the frequency and growth rate of the eastward moisture mode at shorter wavelengths.

Infectious illnesses have always posed a threat to human health, with tuberculosis (TB) being a major concern. The use of various medications and antibiotics in the fight against such illnesses has led to the emergence of drug-resistant infectious diseases, which have become increasingly dif-ficult to manage as medical and scientific research has advanced. Inadequate medical infrastruc-ture, incorrect treatment practices that exacerbate resistance patterns, and transmission within communities and healthcare facilities are the main factors contributing to the spread of drug-resistant TB. Though treating individuals with multiple drug resistance (MDR) and extreme drug resistance (XDR) strains is challenging, early identification of resistance and the imple-mentation of a well-designed treatment regimen can result in a cure. Community-based inter-ventions that address socioeconomic barriers to adherence can also enhance treatment outcomes. While there have been few studies and proposed conceptual models on how to manage and prevent various drug-resistant TB mutations and lineages, a model aimed at limiting and controlling such mutations has been developed. This paradigm seeks to bridge the gap by facilitating the exchange of knowledge among healthcare professionals (HCP) in healthcare facilities (HCF), diagnostic laboratories (DL), and research institutes (RI), particularly for underprivileged communities in the Eastern Cape. The model guide will also monitor and evaluate TB management plans

The optimization design of buildings is very important the energy consumption, carbon emissions ,and sustainable development of buildings. The low-temperature granary has low grain storage temperature and high energy consumption indexes. The design scheme of roof insulation for low-temperature granary should be determined in actual building design processes by considering economy, carbon emissions, and outdoor climate, comprehensively. In this paper, the low-temperature granary roof insulation for different ecological grain storage zones in China are optimized by using a new low-carbon optimization design method. The low-carbon optimization design method can response to the economical issue, emission reduction issue, and outdoor climate issue, simultaneously. The application results of the optimization design method in ecological grain storage zones in China indicate that outdoor climate has significant impacts on the economic performance and carbon reduction effect of roof insulation. The considering of carbon emission cost can apparently increase economic efficiency of roof insulation. The optimal economic thickness of expanded polystyrene (EPS) in Urumqi, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Guiyang and Haikou cities is 0.025 m, 0.037 m, 0.085 m, 0.097 m, 0.072 m and 0.148 m, respectively. The different outdoor climates of seven ecological grain storage areas in China have important influences on the comprehensive economic performances of low-temperature granary roof insulation. The design of low-temperature granary roof insulation in Haikou city has the best economic performances among the seven ecological grain storage zones in China.

The main purpose is to create a model for managing sustainability in the metro and its entities in Gauteng. Within this context, the study will focus on the issue of measures, outcomes, and impacts in the City of Johannesburg (CoJ). The study will clarify a public sector application in municipal entities of the CoJ because sustainability is not well understood or used in the public sector. This article investigates the sustainability phenomena in a metropolitan setting, including the CoJ and its municipal entities. The purpose is rather two-fold. A focus group discussion was held with CoJ senior executive managers to provide feedback on the sustainability model. The information and insights were used to refine the sustainability model to manage sustainability in Coj and its enti-ties. The data was analysed using thematic analysis to refine the sustainability model. The re-sults indicated that sustainability is a function of having a shared understanding of sustainabil-ity, the ability to mainstream and integrate sustainability thinking into all programmes and ac-tivities, leadership commitment, requisite competencies, and monitoring and evaluation of sus-tainability. The implication for leadership is to ensure the alignment of sustainability to the strategic objec-tives of CoJ and to foreground any planning in CoJ with a sustainability lens. Achieving this focus requires a shared understanding, development of competencies, committed leadership to imple-ment measurement and impact framework, and adjusting plans based on monitoring and evalua-tion outcomes.

Interferon-beta is one of the most widely prescribed disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis patients. However, this treatment is only partially effective, and a significant proportion of patients do not respond to this drug. This paper proposes an alternative fuzzy logic system based on the opinion of a neurology expert to classify relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients: high, medium, and low responder to interferon-beta. Also, a pipeline prediction model trained with biomarkers associated to interferon-beta response is proposed for predicting whether patients are potential candidates to be treated with this drug, in order to avoid ineffective therapies. The classification results shows that the fuzzy system presents a 100% efficiency compared with an unsupervised hierarchical clustering method (52%). So, the performance of the prediction model is evaluated, and a 0.8 testing accuracy is achieved. Hence, a pipeline model including data standardization, data compression, and a learning algorithm, can be a useful tool for getting reliable predictions about the response to interferon-beta.

Prostate cancer is a common cancer among men and typically progresses slowly for several decades before becoming aggressive and spreading to other organs, leaving few treatment options. While large animals have been studied, the dog's prostate is anatomically similar to humans and has been used to study spontaneous prostate cancer. However, most research currently focuses on the mouse as a model organism due to the ability to genetically modify their prostatic tissues for molecular analysis. One hallmark in this research was the identification of the prostate-specific promoter Probasin, allowing for prostate-specific expression of transgenes. This has led to generations of mice with aggressive prostatic tumors through overexpression of the SV40 oncogene. The Probasin promoter is also used to drive Cre expression and allow researcher to generated prostate specific loss-of-function studies. Another landmark in the process of modeling prostate cancer in mice was orthoptic delivery of viral particles. This technology allows selective overexpression of oncogenes from lentivirus or the use of CRISPR to generate complex loss of function studies. These genetic modified models are complemented by classical xenografts of human prostate tumor cells in immune deficient mice. Overall, pre-clinical models have provided a portfolio of model systems to study and address complex mechanisms in prostate cancer for improved treatment options. This review will focus on the advances of each technique.

Aortic aneurysms (AA) occur in 4.8% of people causing 150,000 deaths annually. While endovascular aneurysm repairs reduce surgical morbidity, device-related failures (leak/displacement) are frequent highlighting the need for test models that better represent the mural geometry and compliance changes in human AAs. We aimed to develop and characterise an ex vivo porcine aortic model of AA. The optimal duration of tissue elastase exposure to emulate AA changes in elastin microstructure and content was determined using porcine aortic rings. Elastase-induced changes were quantified morphologically, and mechanical properties assessed via ring tensile testing. Subsequent experiments tested the potential for localised elastase treatment in a 1 cm segment of porcine aorta using a specially designed 3D printed test rig. The effect on pressure-diameter behaviour was investigated via inflation-extension testing. Elastase treatment produced time dependent decreases in elastin, resulting in an increased tensile modulus and circumferential length in the ring samples in the final phase of the J-shaped tissue stress-strain curves. In whole aortic segments, localised elastase-induced luminal degradation was successfully limited to a central region. The degree of elastin degradation achieved was sufficient to cause localised dilation with respect to controls under physiological pressures. Localised elastin degradation in porcine aortic segments is feasible and emulates the changes seen clinically in aortic aneurysms.

Historical and Endowment Properties are different from Heritage and cultural Properties, as Historical and Endowment properties are governed by a unique set of laws that Waqf recipients must abide by. Property that is entrusted is usually in the form of buildings, land or valuables which in preservation is not limited to time as long as the property can be utilized. Reliable information technology is needed to ensure data security both digitally and physically, while the rapid development of information technology demands information openness and this will be a challenge in itself. The objectives of this study include examining the collection of historical databases and endowments, the relationship between digital data and physical data and management organizations. The method of how to design a query model to display data is then analyzed whether the data conforms to the rules in waqf management. The results are expected to bring up accurate data between digital data and physical data and if there are differences into findings for the next analysis.

For the first time in human history the majority of people no longer live in a rural environment. According to the United Nations, over 50% of the global population now lives in cities. The abandonment of the rural environment has grave consequences for society in general, as these areas are healthier places to live, produce the food we all depend on, and are an important factor for preserving biodiversity and environmental sustainability. In this paper we will provide a historical overview of rural repopulation models and analyse a number of models currently being applied in several countries in Europe and Latin America. We will also offer observations on a pilot repopulation project called “Habita Tierra” currently being developed. The common characteristics of different repopulation models prompted us to develop a model based on active listening and accompaniment of people and local agents as well as other important factors. Rural depopulation in Spain involves a number of interrelated problems, one of the most salient being the aging rural population. The average farmer in Spain is 61 years of age. There is also the problem of gender imbalance in rural areas, where women enjoy few opportunities or alternatives. In turn, low fertility rates, increasing stress on limited public healthcare, education and transpor-tation resources, a lack of cultural activities and poor connectivity are also factors driving rural depopulation. The only group which is increasing the rural areas in Spain are immigrants, who now account for 10% of the rural population, often performing the agricultural, fishing and livestock farming ac-tivities abandoned by native residents. This group, along with young people, and women of all ages and the programs which support them may offer a solution to the challenge of depopulation. The paper concludes with a list of the key features of successful repopulation programs, drawn from a comparison of historic and contemporary models.

Mice are one of the frequently used animal models in science research whose behavioral characteristics can provide much valuable information in biology, neuroscience, and pharmacology. Nowadays, artificial intelligence is widely used in mice behavior analysis. Integrated AI systems such as ChatGPT and VisualGPT are already available, and we discuss the feasibility of MiceGPT to help researchers identify and classify mouse behavior more easily. We review the applications of mice behavior analysis, analyze the tasks of deep learning on these applications based on an AI pyramid, and finally summarize the AI approaches to solve these tasks. Based on these summaries, we propose three MiceGPT architectures to demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of MiceGPT.

Background: Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, has become a prevalent pest in Italy, causing severe nuisance and posing a threat of transmission of arboviruses introduced by infected travellers. In this study, we investigated the influence of weather parameters on the seasonal population density of Aedes albopictus. Methods: A Bayesian approach was employed to identify the best meteorological predictors of species trend, using the eggs collected monthly from 2010 to 2022 by the Emilia-Romagna regional monitoring network. Results: The findings show that the winter-spring period (January to May) plays a crucial role in the size of the first generation and seasonal development of the species. Conclusions: A temperate winter and a dry and cold March, followed by a rainy and hot spring and a rainy July, seem to favour the seasonal development of Ae. albopictus.

Magnesium matrix composites have attracted significant attention due to their lightweight nature and impressive mechanical properties. However, the fabrication process for these alloy compo-sites is often time-consuming, expensive, and labor-intensive. To overcome these challenges, this study employed machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the mechanical properties of magnesium matrix composites. Regression models were utilized to forecast the yield strength of magnesium alloy composites reinforced with various materials. The study incorporated previous research on matrix type, reinforcement type, heat treatment, and mechanical working. The re-gression models employed in this study included decision tree regression, random forest re-gression, extra tree regression, and XGBoost regression. Model performance was assessed using metrics such as RMSE and R2. The XGBoost Regression model out-performed others, exhibiting an R2 value of 0.94 and the lowest error rate. Feature importance analysis indicated that the rein-forcement particle form had the greatest influence on the mechanical properties. The study iden-tified the optimized parameters for achieving the highest yield strength, which was 186.99 MPa. Overall, this study successfully demonstrates the effectiveness of ML as a valuable tool for opti-mizing the production parameters of magnesium matrix composites.

Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

Electromagnetic (EM) waves, used for purposes such as geophysical characterization, impact properties to be measured. This paper describes the effects of radio frequency (RF) waves on the hydraulic conductivity of glass beads and natural sand. A series of tests were conducted using a customized, rigid-wall, cylindrical permeameter inside a resonant cavity made of Plexiglas covered with electrically conductive transparent films. Constant head ASTM-D2434 [1] tests were performed to measure the samples’ hydraulic conductivity. RF stimulation was performed using a magnetically coupled loop antenna at a constant frequency of 726 MHz and input power levels of 10, 25, 40, and 50 Watts. The hydraulic conductivity of both natural sand and glass-bead samples increased with RF stimulation. Furthermore, measurement of the electric-field component of RF waves was also performed to illustrate the pattern of the electric field as well as evaluate the RF impact on the hydraulic conductivity tests. The electric field was numerically simulated and validated against experimentally measured electric fields. A finite-difference numerical model was developed in MATLAB to analyze the seepage flow, which was then validated against the experimental results. An optimization scheme was then used to develop a governing equation for the RF impact on hydraulic conductivity.

Background: Pteropodine (PT) is a component of some plants with potentially useful pharmaco-logical activities for humans. This compound has biomedical properties related to the modulation of the immune system, nervous system, and inflammatory processes. This study addresses the an-ti-inflammatory and antioxidant capacity of pteropodin in a murine model of arthritis and induced edema of the mouse ear. Methods: To evaluate the anti-inflammatory activity, we used the reversed passive Arthus reaction (RPAR), which includes the rat paw edema test, the rat pleurisy test, and a mouse ear edema model. The antioxidant effect was evaluated by determining the myeloperoxidase enzyme activity. Results: PT showed an anti-inflammatory effect in the different specific and non-specific tests. We found a 52 to 74% of inhibitory effect of PT in the rat paw edema test, 52% of reduction of the pleural exudate volume, and low neutrophil count (28%), when compared to the control group. We also found a 81% of inflammatory inhibition of the ear edema, and a significant myeloperoxidase enzyme inhibition by the three doses of PT. Conclusions: PT exerted a potent an-ti-inflammatory effect in the acute inflammation model in rodents.

In this work the author utilizes the quantum geometrization of spacetime for describing the gravitational interaction within the framework of quantum theory. This approach allows for the development of an equation of gravity that is mathematically connected to the fermion and boson fields. This achievement is accomplished by incorporating two fundamental principles: covariance of the quantum field equations and the principle of least action. By considering these principles, a theory is established that enables the calculation of gravitational corrections to Quantum Electrodynamics, and potentially, to the standard model of particle physics as well. The theory also provides an explanation for two phenomena: the existence of a cosmological pressure density similar to quintessence, that is compatible with the small value of the observed cosmological constant, and the breaking of matter-antimatter symmetry at high energies offering insights into why there is an imbalance between the two in the early universe. In the cosmological modeling of the theory, there exists a proposal to account for the formation of supermassive black holes that are accompanied by their own surrounding galaxies, without relying on the process of mass accretion. The model, in accordance with recent observations conducted by the James Webb Space Telescope, supports the notion that galactic configurations were established relatively early in the history of the universe, shortly after the occurrence of the Big Bang.

In this paper, we extend the Merton model of investment in discrete time to the cases when there is a finite number of investors and the market is with frictions represented by convex penalty functions defined for each investor. In the main result of this paper, we proved the existence of optimal strategy of investment by using a new approach based on the formulation of an equivalent general equilibrium economy model.

Although ChatGPT promises wide-ranging applications, there is a concern that it is politically biased; in particular, it has a left-libertarian orientation. Nevertheless, in light of recent trends in attempts to reduce such biases, this study re-evaluated the political biases of ChatGPT using political orientation tests and the application programming interface. Moreover, the effects of the languages used in the system as well as gender and race settings were evaluated. The results indicated that ChatGPT had less political bias than previously thought; however, they did not entirely discount the political bias. The languages used in the system and the gender and race settings may induce political biases. These findings enhance our understanding of the political biases of ChatGPT and may be useful for bias evaluation and designing ChatGPT’s operational strategy.

The study considers building a dynamic model of profit maximization for the car-sharing system and its verification on the example of implementing such a system in Astana (Republic of Kazakhstan). The region, bounded by the administrative boundaries of Astana, was divided into subregions by covering the region with regular hexagons placed side by side. A dataset was built with information on 1168 trips to Astana from January to March 2023. The Kepler visualization service constructed maps of the beginning and end of trips in the region and a map of trips binding to the hexagonal grid cells. Each cell of the grid corresponds to a specific sub-region, for which the quantitative parameters necessary for solving the profit maximization problem in the car-sharing system are calculated. Stations with cars will be placed in the cells of the grid, which will be available to car-sharing service customers. Based on the collected data, a dynamic (four periods per day) and static profit maximization model in the car-sharing system was built. Modeling was carried out based on the built models in the example of Astana. It was established that using a dynamic model of profit maximization in the car-sharing system increases the profit by 3.7%.

When the majority of museums and other cultural institutions were shut down due to the pandemic, mixed museum visits became a hot issue. After the epidemic, mixed visits, in the opinion of many experts, would become the new norm for experiencing cultural content. Diverse types of merging online and onsite visits are already being investigated by researchers, not only to avoid the spread of a disease but also to enable visits of people who were previously excluded, such as persons in remote geographic areas or people with mobility challenges. The current work takes into account the Contextual Model of Museum Learning to define potential use scenarios for visits from people of different cultural backgrounds and offers an evaluation of current practices.

This study used the ECOSSE model (v. 5.0.1) to simulate soil respiration (Rs) flux-es estimated from ecosystem respiration (Reco) for eight European permanent grassland (PG) sites with varying grass species, soils, and management. The main aim was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model in estimating Rs from grasslands, and to gain a better understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle and how Rs is affect-ed by natural and anthropogenic drivers. Results revealed that the current version of the ECOSSE model may not be reliable for estimating daily Rs fluxes, particularly in dry sites. However, it could still be a valuable tool for predicting cumulative Rs from PG. Additionally, the model demonstrated accurate simulation of Rs in response to grass cutting and slurry application practices. The sensitivity analyses and attribution tests revealed that increased soil organic carbon (SOC), soil pH, temperature, reduced precipitation, and lower water table (WT) depth could lead to increased Rs from soils. The variability of Rs fluxes across sites and years was attributed to climate, weather, soil properties, and management practices. The study suggests the need for additional development and application of the ECOSSE model, specifically in dry and low input sites, to evaluate the impacts of various land management interventions on carbon sequestration and emissions in PG.

High density of buildings and the large traffic volume of cities give rise to narrow spaces and high passenger flows in most subway stations. When evacuation is required during an emergency, these problems may trigger issues in operational safety. Therefore, it is imperative to comprehensively assess subway station emergency evacuation times and capacities during the operating process to ensure the design is safe, science-based, and rational. To further enhance safe evacuation capacity, this paper proposes an overall evacuation time model that considers the multielement charac-teristics of subway stations in multiple segments. The evacuation route is decomposed into five stages according to the critical nodes in the evacuation process. An overall emergency evacuation time model is established based on the diversity of bottlenecks in the five stages, integrating elements such as the horizontal movement velocity of passengers, subway equipment parameters, and human density. Taking Xi’an Wulukou Subway Station as an example, this paper verifies the outcomes of the theoretical model against the Pathfinder software and conducts additional anal-yses of the evacuation conditions of stairs and exits. The results show that the error between the theoretical emergency evacuation time and simulation evacuation time was 5.4%, The emergency evacuation model established in this study boasts strong robustness and stability.

For the ground-state properties of gas-phase nanomolecules with multi-reference character, thermally-assisted-occupation density functional theory (TAO-DFT) has been recently found to outperform the widely used Kohn-Sham density functional theory, when the conventional exchange-correlation energy functionals are employed. Aiming to explore solvation effects on the ground-state properties of nanomolecules with multi-reference character at a minimal computational cost, we combine TAO-DFT with the polarizable continuum model (PCM). To show its usefulness, TAO-DFT-based PCM (TAO-PCM) is employed to study the electronic properties of linear acenes in three different solvents (toluene, chlorobenzene, and water). According to TAO-PCM, in the presence of these solvents, the smaller acenes should have nonradical nature, and the larger acenes should have increasing polyradical nature, showing remarkable similarities to the past findings in the gas phase.

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources is emerging as a result of global carbon emission reduction policies. However, most renewable energy sources are non-dispatchable and cannot be adjusted to meet the fluctuating electricity demands of society. A flexible operation process has been proposed as an effective solution to compensate for the unstable nature of renewable energy sources. Thermal load fluctuations during flexible operation may cause creep-fatigue damage to the high-temperature components of thermal power plants, as they are designed with a focus on creep damage under a constant power level. This study investigated the residual life of high-temperature components, such as a superheater tube and a reheater header, to failure under flexible operation conditions using finite element analysis and empirical models. First, we determine an analytical solution for the straightened superheater tube under thermal conditions and compare it with the numerical solution to verify the numerical models. Through the verified finite element model, the creep-fatigue life of the reheater header is estimated by considering flexible operation factors and employing the Coffin-Manson and Larson-Miller models. Although fatigue damage increases with decreasing minimum load and ramp rate, we confirmed that creep damage significantly affects the residual life during flexible operation. In addition, a surrogate model was proposed to evaluate the residual life of the reheater as a function of the flexible operation factors using the machine learning methodology, based on the results of finite element methods. It can be used to predict its residual life without performing complex thermal-structure analysis and relying on empirical models for fatigue and creep life. We expect our findings to contribute to the efficient operation of thermal power plants by optimizing the flexible operation factors.

The ongoing emergence of SARS-CoV-2 virus variants remains a source of concern because it is accompanied by the potential for increased virulence as well as evasion of immunity. Here we show that, although having an almost identical spike gene sequence as another Omicron variant (BA.5.2.1), a BA.4 isolate lacked all the typical disease characteristics of other isolates seen in the Golden Syrian hamster model despite replicating almost as effectively. Animals infected with BA.4 had similar viral shedding profiles to that seen with BA.5.2.1 (up to day 6 post infection) but they all failed to lose weight or present with any other significant clinical signs. We hypothesize that this lack of detectable signs of disease during infection with BA.4 was due to a small (nine nucleotide) deletion (∆686-694) in the viral genome (ORF1ab) responsible for production of non-structural protein 1 which resulted in the loss of three amino acids (aa 141-143).

Study aimed to evaluate the impact of integrating family planning with maternal, newborn, and child health (FP-MNCH) on uptake of modern contraceptive methods and related health outcomes in two districts of the province of Sindh, Pakistan. Impact of intervention was evaluated using a quasi-experimental control before-after study design. Intervention included capacity building of healthcare providers and outreach workers, ensuring sustained supplies of family planning commodities, data-driven decision-making, and community engagement activities. Data was collected through household surveys at baseline (December2020) and endline (December 2022). The sample size was estimated as 880 married women of reproductive age (MWRA) in each district. The Difference and Difference(DiD) analytical method was used to estimate the impact of intervention adjusted for potential confounding factors. There was statistically significant increase of 11.3% in the current use of MCM in the intervention group compared to the control group (p value <0.001), with increases observed in the uptake of injection , implants, and condoms. Additionally, there was an increase in the proportion of women who had ANC visits (DiD 10.5% p value 0.003), FP counselling during ANC (DiD 15.6% p value < 0.001), LHW visits during pregnancy (DiD 15.1% p value 0.021), PNC check-ups for mother (DiD 25.2% p value <0.001), LHW visits after delivery (DiD 20.4% p value <0.001), and LHW advised for family planning at PNC visit n (DiD 14.5% p value 0.030). This study provides strong evidence for the scaling-up of integrated interventions through existing health care platforms utilizing human resources deployed by the government. This FP-MNCH model has the potential to be adopted in other provinces and at federally administered areas for both health and population planning. This model should be considered for replication in other districts of Sindh to accelerate current level of integration already existing.

The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.

The Golden Syrian hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) is now commonly used in preclinical research for the study of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the assessment of vaccines, drugs and therapeutics. Here we show that hamsters inoculated via the intranasal route with the same infectious virus dose of prototypical SARS-CoV-2 administered in a different volume present with different clinical signs, weight loss and viral shedding, with a reduced volume resulting in reduced severity of disease similar to that obtained by a 500-fold reduction in challenge dose. The tissue burden of virus and the severity of pulmonary pathology were also significantly affected by different challenge inoculum volumes. These findings suggest that direct comparison between the severity of SARS-CoV-2 variants or studies assessing the efficacy of treatments determined by hamster studies cannot be made unless both the challenge dose and inoculation volume are matched when using the intranasal route. Additionally, analysis of sub-genomic and total genomic RNA PCR data demonstrated no link between sub-genomic and live viral titres and that sub-genomic analyses do not provide any information beyond that provided by more sensitive total genomic PCR.

This paper presents additional results of the generalized bathtub model for urban networks, including a simpler derivation and exact solutions for uniformly distributed trip lengths. It is shown that in steady state this trip-based model is equivalent to the more parsimonious accumulation-based model, and that the trip-length distribution has merely a transient effect on traffic dynamics, which converge to the same point in the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). To understand the statistical properties of the system, a queueing approximation method is proposed to compute the network accumulation variance. It is found that (i) the accumulation variance is much larger than predicted by traditional queueing models, due to the nonlinear dynamics imposed by the MFD, (ii) the trip-length distribution has no effect on the accumulation variance, indicating that the proposed formula for the variance might be universal, (iii) the system exhibits critical behavior near the capacity state where the variance diverges to infinity. This indicates that the tools from critical phenomena and phase transitions might be useful to understand congestion in cities.

Sea surface wind forecasts in the Adriatic Sea often suffer for unadequate modelling, especially for the wind speed. This has detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. We present a numerical method to reduce the bias between the sea surface wind observed by the scatterometers and that supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric model, for storm surge forecasting applications. The method, called “wind bias mitigation”, relies on scatterometer observations to determine a multiplicative factor ∆ws which modulates the standard model wind in order to decrease the bias between scatterometer and model. We compare four different mathematical approaches to this method, for a total of eight different formulations of the multiplicative factor ∆ws. Four datasets are used for the assessment of the eight different bias mitigation methods: a collection of 29 Storm Surge Events (SEVs) cases in the years 2004-2014, a collection of 48 SEVs in the years 2013-2016, a collection of 364 cases of random sea level conditions in the same period, and a collection of the seven SEVs in 2012-2016 that were worst predicted by the Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, Comune di Venezia (Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality - CPSM). The statistical analysis shows that the bias mitigation procedures supplies a mean wind speed more accurate than the standard forecast, when compared with scatterometer observations, in more than 70% of the analyzed cases.

Biology is so complex that it has to be studied in different ways and focuses on processes. Self-regulation skills in learning are important metacognitive skills for students in studying Biology. Learning models that train strategic students in learning are a must so that they gain meaningful learning experiences through the process of exploration, analysis of new information carried out in learning by applying self-questioning strategies to monitor why new information can be trusted. The results of the synthesis between old knowledge and new knowledge are enhanced through peer coaching in class. This research was conducted to develop an EAQD-PC learning model (exploring, analyzing, questioning, defining peer coaching) and tools that are valid, practical, and effective. The model development procedure includes the preliminary research stage, the prototype stage, and the assessment stage. Model validation data was collected using expert validation instruments. While the practicality of the model components is measured by the implementation observation sheet. The effectiveness of the model was measured using a metacognitive skill test and a questionnaire. This model is applied to students majoring in Biology Education at Muhammadiyah University of Bone, even semester 2019/2020. The results showed that the components of the EAQD-PC model (a) with a value of 3.87, and valid learning model supporting tools with a value of 3.83, (b) practicality with a value of 3.89 and (c) effectiveness with a value of 3, 97 . This study proves that the EAQD-PC model is practical and effective for training students' metacognitive skills.

The potential effect of implementing environmental regulations on economic growth is a controversial issue for a long time. As portrayed by Porter hypothesis, environmental regulations may impact on economic growth by reconstructing the economic structure. A number of previous literature proved the connections between the above three parties. With the intention of exploring the nature of this mechanism, it is important to understand the internal inter-relation of the three parties, requiring data from a large economy experiencing the transition in economic structure. By constructing a panel containing data from 30 Chinese provinces over 10 years (2008-2019), this paper investigate the dynamic inter-relation of the three parties by introducing PVAR model with Granger Test. Results reveal that environmental regulations give a “U” shaped impact to economic growth. In return, economic growth promotes the development of economy with a weakening strength. In addition, results also support the hypothesis that economic structure is the intermediate of economic growth and environmental regulations. There is a rooftop for the effect of economic structure to environmental regulations. The rooftop may signify the best optimization of primary structure.

During the past few years many projects and initiatives were undertaken deploying and testing automated vehicles for public transportation and logistics. However in spite of their ambition, all of these deployments stayed on the level of elaborated experimentation deploying no more than 4 maximum 5 AVs in rather small sites (few Kms of roads) and never really reached the level of large scale “commercial” deployment of transport services. The reasons for this are many, but the most important being the lack of economically viability and commercially realistic models, the lack of scalability of the business and operating models, and the lack of inclusive citizen/user centric services required for the large end-user acceptation and adoption of the solutions. In this paper, based on the experience gained in the H2020 AVENUE project, we present the missing pieces of the puzzle, ad which will be addressed in the Horizon Europe project ULTIMO.

Objective: We aimed to clarify the differences in the association between re-admission for heart failure (HF) and left atrial (LA) overload indices by sex in heart failure and a preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods: We analysed 898 HFpEF patients hospitalized for acute decompensated HF. Blood tests and transthoracic echocardiography were performed before discharge. The primary endpoint was re-admission for HF during the first year. Results: The ratio of diastolic elastance to arterial elastance (p=0.014), a relative index of LA pressure overload, in men and LA volume index (LAVI, p=0.020) in women were significant for re-admission for HF during the first year in the multivariable Fine-Gray analysis. Stroke volume (SV)/LA volume (LAV), another index for LAV overload, was not a significant prognostic factor of re-admission for HF during this time. Conclusion: LA overload was an important prognostic factor for HF re-readmission during the first year after enrolment in patients with HFpEF, but the indices relating to LA overload differed by sex.

This study evaluated the efficacy of experimental TEGDMA-functionalized dicalcium phosphate dihydrate (T-DCPD) filler-based resin-based composites (RBC) in preventing caries lesions around the restoration margins (secondary caries”, SC). Standardized Class-II cavities were made in sound molars having the cervical margin in dentin. Cavities were filled with a commercial resin-modified glass-ionomer cement (RMGIC) or experimental RBCs containing a BisGMA-TEGDMA resin blend and one of the following inorganic fractions: 60 wt.% Ba glass (RBC-0); 40 wt.% Ba glass, 20 wt.% T-DCPD (RBC-20); 20 wt.% Ba glass, 40 wt.% T-DCPD (RBC-40). An open-system bioreactor produced S. mutans biofilm-driven SC. Specimens were scanned using micro-CT to evaluate demineralization depths. Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy-dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy characterized the specimens’ surfaces, while antimicrobial activity, buffering effect, and ion uptake by the biofilms were also evaluated. ANOVA and Tukey’s test were applied at p<0.05. RBC-0 and RBC-20 showed SC development in dentin, while RBC-40 and RMGIC significantly reduced the lesion depth at the restoration margin (p<0.0001). Initial enamel demineralization could be observed only around RBC-0 and RBC-20 restorations. A direct antibiofilm activity could explain SC reduction by RMGIC, while a buffering effect on biofilm’s acidogenicity explained the behavior of RBC-40. Experimental RBC with CaP-releasing functionalized T-DCPD filler could prevent SC with the same efficacy as F-releasing materials.

The High-Resolution Computed Tomography (HRCT) detection and diagnosis of diffuse lung disease is primarily based on the recognition of a limited number of specific abnormal findings, pattern combinations or their distributions, as well as anamnesis and clinical information. Since texture recognition has a very high accuracy percentage if a complex network approach is used, this paper aims to implement such a technique customized for diffuse interstitial lung diseases (DILD). The proposed procedure translates HRCT lung imaging into complex networks by taking samples containing a secondary lobule, converting them into complex networks and analyzing them in 3 dimensions: emphysema, ground glass opacity and consolidation. This method was evaluated on a 60 patient lot and the results show a clear quantifiable difference between healthy and affected lungs. By deconstructing the image on three pathological axes, the method offers an objective way to quantify DILD details which, so far, have only been analyzed subjectively.

This article analyzes the perspectives of professional training of the public administration staff, from the viewpoint of the sustainability criteria, starting from the experiences of the online courses run in the last two years. In order to understand the nature, type and magnitude of the changes caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in the field of professional training for public administration, we performed a survey among public institution employees, by applying a questionnaire. The instrument included qualitative elements, to allow the framing of statistical results. The article is grounded on the hypothesis that the professional training activities in the last two years were organized preponderantly online and it aims to analyze the sustainability of the new teaching systems/methods. The limitations of the study are given by the fact that each administrative system has structure particularities and its own legal framework regarding the professional training of public administration staff, what makes that the model proposed cannot be applied in all countries. The study provides a model of online professional training for public administration staff, sustainable, based on the experience accumulated in the last two years.

COVID-19 outbreak started in the Chinese city of Wuhan and spread around the globe in months due to its high contagious level. Hence, this disease posed a great challenge to researchers and mathematicians. Numerous mathematical models have been suggested to visualize the spreading speed and trends of this pandemic. In this paper, a comparison of a widely established and accepted method, the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Death-Insusceptible (SEIQRDP) model with a newly-proposed fractional-order SEIQRDP is studied. Densely populated Countries of Asia (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh) have been chosen as data sets and both algorithms have been applied to their data. The same comparison technique has also been used on the data of two polar countries, New Zealand and Russia, that validated our findings. Error comparison of both algorithms has been recorded in a tabulated form which shows multi-fold erroneous trends over WHO data of selected countries.

The potential of social networks for the circulation of disinformation as a strategy of diplomacy has been of great interest to the academic community, but the way in which it is propagated and modelled is still in its beginnings. This article aimed to simulate the propagation of disinformation in social networks derived from the diplomacy strategy, based on the elements of the system. For the design of the simulation model, system dynamics was used as the main technique in the research methodology in conjunction with statistical analysis. Five computational simulations were run for the adoption methods of susceptible and uninformed population, misinformation techniques and echo chamber. The developed model found that the diplomacy disinformation agent is able to spread its message efficiently through the bot outreach mechanism and only a part of the susceptible population unsubscribes to the disinformation agent's account. Significant differences were identified in the absence of paid outreach, bots and trolls in the propagation of information, and in the variation in the timing of disinformation propagation. Consequently, the developed model allows the understanding of the problem of disinformation as a strategy of diplomacy from international rather than local dynamics, as well as the effects of the use of each element in the system.

Biology is about structure. Structures within structures. Organs within animals, tissues within organs, cells within tissues, and molecules, often proteins within cells. The structures are so complex that they can only be described by numbers. No numbers are of more importance than those that describe proteins. The numbers that describe coordinates of its atoms, often determined by Patterson functions (which are inverse Fourier Transforms of intensities) of crystal diffraction. Without these numbers, structural biology would hardly exist. Without numbers, engineering would not exist. Numbers are surely needed by the engineers who produce the x-rays diffracting from atoms of protein crystals. Devices of engineering have function. They are built to implement equations. Engineering devices use structures to implement equations, when power is supplied at the right places, that produces appropriate flows. Flows are the essence of life. Equilibrium means death in most living systems. Flows in biological structures are hard to analyze because we do not know input output equations in advance. Sometimes we do not know their function. Flows, forces, and structures of life (like those of engineering) are related by field equations of conservation laws, partial differential equations, constrained by location and properties of structures. Constraints are boundary conditions located on the complicated domain of biological structure. Dealing with this complexity is simplified if one systematically analyzes structure using the most general field theory known, electricity described by the Maxwell equations, without significant known error. Currents are involved because flows of biology usually involve migration of charges, convection of water and solutes, diffusion of ions that form the plasma of life, and their interactions. Interactions can dominate function. Here I show how a few complex structures can be understood in engineering detail. This approach may be useful in dealing with biological and medical issues in many other cases. In one limited case—the clearance of a toxic waste (potassium ions) from the optic nerve—this approach seems to have succeeded.

Phase transitions- both in the classical and in the quantum version- are the perfect playground for appreciating universality at work. Indeed, the fine details become unimportant and a classification in very few universality classes is possible. Very recently, a striking deviation from this picture has been discovered: some antiferromagnetic spin chains with competing interactions show a different set of phase transitions depending on the parity of number of spins in the chain. The aim of this article is to demonstrate that the same behavior also characterizes the most simple quantum spin chain: the Ising model in a transverse field. By means of an exact solution based on a Wigner-Jordan transformation, we show that a first order quantum phase transition appears at zero applied field in the odd spin case, while it is not present in the even case. A hint of a possible physical interpretation is given by the combination of two fact: at the point of the phase transition, the degeneracy of the ground state in the even and the odd case substantially differ, being respectively 2 and 2N, with N the number of spins; the spin of the most favorable kink states changes at that point.

3D city models integrate heterogeneous urban data from multiple sources in a unified geospatial representation, combining both semantics and geometry. Although in the last decades, they are predominantly used for visualization, today they are used in a large range of tasks related to exploration, analysis, and management across multiple domains. The complexity of urban processes and the diversity of urban environment bring challenges to the implementation of 3D city models. To address such challenges, this paper presents the development process of a 3D city model of a single neighborhood in Sofia city based on CityGML 2.0 standard. The model represents the buildings in LOD1 with a focus on CityGML features of related to the buildings like building part, terrain intersection curve and address. Similar building models of 18 cities provided as open datasets are explored and compared in order to extract good modeling practices. As a result, workflows for generation of 3D building models in LOD1 are elaborated and improvements in the feature modeling are proposed. Two options of building model are examined: modeling of a building as a single solid and modeling of a building with separate building parts. Finally, the possibilities for visualization of the model in popular platforms such as ArcGIS Pro and Cesium Ion are explored.

Unhealthy diet is an important health problem in the region of the Americas, and Uruguay does not escape this reality. Nutritional problems in Uruguayan school-age children are overweight and obesity. Caloric intake is excessive for 60% of children and 28% of calories come from ultra-processed products (UPP) [CODICEN 2021] [MIDES 2020) (Köncke, Toledo, 2021). In 2018, an evaluation of food intake was conducted in a representative sample of public schools in the city of Montevideo. Food and preparations were categorized according to the NOVA system, later they were analyzed according to the Pan American Health Oganization nutrient profile model (PAHO NPM). Only 0.52% of children consumed exclusively natural foods, unprocessed, minimally processed or culinary ingredients. Twenty-five percent of children consumed ≥ 4 products categorized with excessive content of free sugars, total fat or saturated fat according to the PAHO NPM; in the case of excessive sodium this was 40%. In general, children who included products with excessive free sugars, sodium or saturated fat in their diet exceeded the limits established by PAHO and as a result their diet is of poorer nutritional quality compared to children who did not consume such products.

Natural disasters are showing an increase in the magnitude, frequency, and geographic distribution. Studies have shown that individuals’ self-sufficiency, which largely depends on household preparedness, is very important for hazard mitigation in at least the first 72 hours following a disaster. However, for factors that influence a household’s disaster preparedness, though there are many studies trying to identify from different aspects, we still lack an integrative analysis on how these factors contribute to a household’s preparation. This paper aims to build a classification model to predict whether a household has prepared for a potential disaster based on their personal characteristics and the environment they located. We collect data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Household Survey in 2018 and train four classification models - logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and multi-layer perceptron classifier models- to predict the impact of personal characteristics and the environment they located on household prepare for the potential natural disaster. Results show that the multi-layer perceptron classifier model outperforms others with the highest scoring on both recall (0.8531) and f1 measure (0.7386). In addition, feature selection results also show that among other factors, a household’s accessibility to disaster-related information is the most critical factor that impacts household disaster preparation. Though there is still room for further parameter optimization, the model gives a clue that we could support disaster management by gathering publicly accessible data.

A robust hydrological assessment is challenging in regions where human interference, within all aspects of the hydrological system, significantly alters the flow regime of rivers. The challenge was to extend a large-scale water resources model, GWAVA, to better represent water resources without increasing the model complexity. A groundwater and a regulated reservoir routine were incorporated into GWAVA using modifications of the existing AMBHAS-1D and Hanasaki methodologies, respectively. The groundwater routine can be varied in complexity when sufficient input data is available but fundamentally is driven by three input parameters. The reservoir routine was extended to account for the presence of large, regulated reservoirs using two calibratable parameters. The additional groundwater processes and reservoir regulation was tested in two highly anthropogenically influenced basins in India: the Cauvery and Narmada. The inclusion of the revised groundwater routine improved the simulation of streamflow in the headwater catchments and was successful in improving the representation of the baseflow component. In addition, the model was able to produce a time series of daily groundwater levels, recharge to groundwater and groundwater abstraction. The regulated reservoir routine improved the simulation of streamflow in catchments downstream of major reservoirs, where the streamflow was largely reflective of reservoir releases, when calibrated using downstream observed streamflow records. The model was able to provide a more robust representation of the annual volume and daily outflow released from the major reservoirs and simulate the major reservoir storages adequately. The addition of one-dimensional groundwater processes and a regulated reservoir routine proved successful in improving the model performance and traceability of water balance components, without excessively increasing the model complexity and input data requirements.

The vibrational excitation cross section of a diatomic molecule by positron impact is obtained using wavepacket propagation techniques. The dynamics was carried on a two-dimensional potential energy surface which couples a hydrogen-like harmonic oscillator to a positron via a spherically symmetric correlation polarization potential. The cross section for the excitation of the first vibrational mode is in good agreement with previous reports. Our model suggests that a positron couples to the target vibration by responding instantly to an interaction potential which depends on the target vibrational coordinate.

Severe thunderstorms are often accompanied by strong vertical air currents, temporary wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The development of this atmospheric phenomenon over tropical shallow water zones, such as bays, can lead to intensification of atmospheric disturbances and produce a small-scale storm surge. Here, the storm surge that occurred on 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf coastal area has been investigated. Air temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, wave height, wind direction, wind speed, geopotential height, zonal components, meridional winds, vertical velocity, relative humidity, and specific humidity obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (and Global Forecast System (FNL) were used to implement the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the main cause of the storm surge was the occurrence of a supercell thunderstorm over the Persian Gulf. The formation of this destructive phenomenon resulted from a downburst under Cumulonimbus cloud and high-velocity air subsidence, after collision with the sea surface coinciding with the high tide. This caused a severe, yet temporary, gust, which in turn caused the creation of the four waves of 3.1 m height along the coast of Bandar Dayyer.

Low-energy Coulomb excitation is capable of providing unique information on static electromagnetic moments of short-lived excited nuclear states, including non-yrast states. The process selectively populates low-lying collective states and is therefore ideally suited to study phenomena such as shape coexistence and development of exotic deformation (triaxial or octupole shapes). Historically, these experiments were restricted to stable isotopes. However, the advent of new facilities providing intense beams of short-lived radioactive species has opened the possibility to apply this powerful technique to a much wider range of nuclei. We discuss the observables that can be measured in a Coulomb-excitation experiment, their relation to nuclear structure parameters with an emphasis on the nuclear shape, and present some recent examples of Coulomb-excitation studies that provided outcomes relevant for the Shell Model.

In this note we study the binomial model applied to European, American and Bermudan type of derivatives. Our aim is to give the necessary and sufficient conditions under which we can define a fair value via replicating portfolios for any derivative using simple mathematical arguments and without using no arbitrage techniques. Giving suitable definitions we are able to define rigorously the fair value of any derivative without using concepts from probability theory or stochastic analysis therefore is suitable for students or young researchers. It will be clear in our analysis that if $e^{r \delta} \notin [d,u]$ then we can not define a fair value by any means for any derivative while if $d \leq e^{r \delta} \leq u$ we can. Therefore the definition of the fair value of a derivative is not so closely related with the absence of arbitrage. In the usual probabilistic point of view we assume that $d < e^{r \delta} < u$ in order to define the fair value but it is not clear what we can (or we can not) do in the cases where $e^{r \delta} \leq d$ or $e^{r \delta} \geq u$.

Surrogate model based optimization method is widely-used to accelerate the design and optimization process~\cite{marler2004survey}. The input of regression model used in the surrogate model are numbers, which requires users to parametrize the geometries. In this paper, a new parameterization-free surrogate model is introduced and its corresponding uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis method are discussed. The input of new surrogate model methods is surface mesh of simulation domain. \Gls{gnns} is used to extract geometric information, and \Gls{cnns} is used to predict contours. This framework bypasses parameterization,as a consequence, uncertainties introduced by manual parameterization is reduced. However, such changes compared with conventional surrogate model methods impose great challenge on uncertainties quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainties quantification in this paper means the error bar of prediction results, which is calculated by Gaussian Process Regression method in current surrogate method. In this paper, a new quantification method achieved by Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) is introduced. And the sensitivity analysis is conducted by Automatic Differentiation, which gives a Jacobian matrix of inputs. The method and analysis mentioned above are demonstrated by a low-pressure steam turbine rotator and its exhaust system.

This study explores the use of satellite-based LULC (Land Use / Land Cover) data while simultaneously correcting potential evapotranspiration (PET) input with Leaf Area Index (LAI) to increase the performance of a physically distributed hydrologic model. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was selected for this purpose due to its unique features. Since LAI input informs the model about vegetation dynamics, we incorporated the LAI based PET correction option together with multi-year LULC data. The Globcover land cover data was selected for the single land cover cases, and hybrid of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover datasets were chosen for the cases with multiple land cover datasets. These two datasets complement each other since MODIS has no separate forest class but more frequent (yearly) observations than CORINE. Calibration period spans from 1990 to 2006 and corresponding NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) values varies between 0.23 and 0.42, while the validation period spans from 2007 to 2010 and corresponding NSE values are between 0.13 and 0.39. The results revealed that the best performance is obtained when multiple land cover datasets are provided to the model and LAI data is used to correct PET, instead of default aspect-based PET correction in mHM. This study suggests that to minimize errors due to parameter uncertainties in physically distributed hydrologic models, adequate information can be supplied to the model with care taken to avoid over-parameterizing the model.

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

Advancing models for accurate estimation of food production is essential for policymaking and managing national plans of action for food security. This research proposes two machine learning models for the prediction of food production. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) methods are used to advance the prediction models. In the present study, two variables of livestock production and agricultural production were considered as the source of food production. Three variables were used to evaluate livestock production, namely livestock yield, live animals, and animal slaughtered, and two variables were used to assess agricultural production, namely agricultural production yields and losses. Iran was selected as the case study of the current study. Therefore, time-series data related to livestock and agricultural productions in Iran from 1961 to 2017 have been collected from the FAOSTAT database. First, 70% of this data was used to train ANFIS and MLP, and the remaining 30% of the data was used to test the models. The results disclosed that the ANFIS model with Generalized bell-shaped (Gbell) built-in membership functions has the lowest error level in predicting food production. The findings of this study provide a suitable tool for policymakers who can use this model and predict the future of food production to provide a proper plan for the future of food security and food supply for the next generations.

We study the problem of predicting time series data using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in an online manner. Existing algorithms require model selection, which is time consuming and inapt for the setting of online learning. Using adaptive online learning techniques, we develop algorithms for fitting ARIMA models with fewest possible hyperparameters. We analyse the regret bound of the proposed algorithms and examine their performance using experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets

Gauge fields control the dynamics of fermions, also a back reaction of fermions on the gauge field is expected. This back reaction is investigated within the vortex picture of the QCD vacuum. We show that the center vortex model reproduces the string tension of the full theory also with the presence of fermionic fields.

Integral atmospheric dispersion models are used widely for flammable hazard and its risk analysis. There is a widespread belief that flammable distances from these models are conservative when flammable ranges are calculated using the 0.5 lower flammability limits (LFL) concentration threshold. This is erroneous. This paper traces through the development of these models and the research that led to the Birch Guidance. It shows that the 0.5 LFL is a necessary factor to transform the results of dispersion models designed for environmental assessment to applications to flammable hazard assessment in quiescent conditions. Current applications do not take account of turbulence due to wind, large and small obstructions, etc. A set of simple guidance is given in the paper to manage flammable hazards based on results from atmospheric dispersion models, including topics for future research.

Since December 2019, the world is fighting against coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This disease is caused by a novel coronavirus termed as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This work focuses on the applications of machine learning algorithms in the context of COVID-19. Firstly, regression analysis is performed to model the number of confirmed cases and death cases. Our experiments show that autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) can reliably model the increase in the number of confirmed cases and can predict future cases. Secondly, a number of classifiers are used to predict whether a COVID-19 patient needs to be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) or semi-ICU. For this, classification algorithms are applied to a dataset having 5644 samples. Using this dataset, the most significant attributes are selected using features selection by ExtraTrees classifier, and Proteina C reativa (mg/dL) is found to be the highest-ranked feature. In our experiments, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, XGBoost, stacking and voting classifiers are applied to the top 10 selected attributes of the dataset. Results show that random forest and hard voting classifiers achieve the highest classification accuracy values near 98%, and the highest recall value of 98% in predicting the need for admission into ICU/semi ICU units.

In cotton cultivars, an insect that causes irreversible damage is the Spodoptera frugiperda, known as the fall armyworm. Since the visual detection of plants is a burdensome task for human inspection, the spectral information related to plant damage, registered on a spectral scale, can be useful. These measurements, associated with machine learning techniques, produce useful information for a rapid and non-invasive inspection method development. To contribute to this gap fulfillment, this paper proposes a machine learning framework to model the spectral response of cotton plants under the attack of the fall armyworm. Additionally, a theoretical model is presented, built from the results of the machine learning analysis, to infer this damage with up-to-date orbital sensors. The data was composed of the reflectance measurements collected at a cotton field with control plants and plants submitted to Spodoptera frugiperda damage. Their spectral response was recorded with a hand-held spectroradiometer ranging from 350 to 2,500 nm, for eight consecutive days. Different machine learning models were evaluated and the overall best model was defined by accuracies comparisons on a testing-set. A ranking approach was adopted based on the model accuracy, returning the most contributive wavelengths for the classification. Sequentially, an unsupervised neural network (Self-Organizing Map - SOM) was implemented to reduce data-dimensionality and assist in the definition of important spectral regions. The regions were associated with the spectral bands of the two sensors (OLI and MSI) and a theoretical model using a band simulation process with the overall best machine learning model was proposed. The results indicated that the Random Forest (RF) algorithm is the most suitable to predict cotton-plants damaged by insects and that the last day of analysis (8th day) was better to separate it, with F-measure equals 0.912. The ranking approach combined with the SOM method indicated the spectral regions at the red to near-infrared (650 to 1,350 nm) and shortwave infrared (1,570 to 1,640 nm) as the most important regions to the analysis. The proposed theoretical model simulated with the OLI and MSI sensor-bands returned an F-Measure of 0.865 and 0.886, respectively. In conclusion, this framework can be used to map cotton-plants under insect-attack. The theoretical model presents high accuracy to infer the insect-damaged on cotton plants based on multispectral bands from other sensors, being a useful tool for future research that intends to evaluate it in other areas and at different field scales.

New analysis regarding the structure of center vortices and their color structure is presented: Using data from gluonic SU(2) lattice simulation with Wilson action a correlation of fluctuations in color space to curvature of vortex fluxes was found. Finite size effects of the S2-homogeneity hint at color homogeneous regions on the vortex surface.

The aim of this study was to identify MFIs specific determinants of capital structure of selected micro finance institutions in Ethiopia. The researcher employed quantitative research approach with explanatory research design. The result of regression analysis showed that out that variables like growth, profitability, firm size, age, and asset tangibility have positive and statistically significant effect on leverage ratio. Whereas, profitability has statistically significant and negative effect on capital structure. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher concluded that the firm specific determinants of capital structure of micro finance institutions in Ethiopia were growth, profitability, firm size, age, and asset tangibility.

Zebrafish is an excellent model for observing human genetic disorders. Hearing impairment is the most common genetic disorder including syndromic & non-syndromic hearing loss. Stem cell therapies are considered a new hope in case of hearing impairment. Stem cells are the master cells of the human body and having the capability to differentiate into any other form of cells in more than 200 types of cells (regeneration). This review article describes zebrafish as a biomedical model for stem cell research in hearing impairment, which revolutionized the biomedical arena to compete for the challenges.

Glioma accounts for the highest proportion of primary intracranial malignant tumors. Microenvironment enormously influences the process of glioma progression. Our study is to establish an individualized prognostic nomogram for glioma patients with microenvironment signature. Glioma samples of Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) were grouped by the immune and stromal score based on ESTIMATE algorithm. Microenvironment-related genes (MRGs) in glioma were analyzed by R. To determine the best prognostic correlation genes, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to analyze MRGs. Use the selected genes (CHI3L1, SOCS3, SLC47A2, COL3A1, SRPX2 and SERPINA3), we established the prognostic risk score model (microenvironment signature) and validated it. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) showed that the high-risk group was mainly enriched in immune and stromal function KEGG pathways. Finally, the nomogram was constructed and evaluated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA) of training and validation set indicated the excellent predictive performance of nomogram. In conclusion, the 6-gene microenvironment signature can not only provide directions for the basic research of glioma, but also can be included as an independent prognostic index in nomogram for individual prediction to guide clinical treatment.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the mean transitioning probabilities from a Healthy state to malaria positive uncomplicated state or to malaria positive severe state. It also classifies the various transitioning probabilities of moving through the various states based on some baseline characteristics. Malaria test results for 2019 over a 12-month period were collected from the University of Ghana school clinic. An H-U model for the study was developed and the transition rates from the cross-sectional data are indicated. With two states Healthy (H) and Uncomplicated (U) forming a state space, there were four possible transitions. The results show that the probability of transitioning from a Healthy state to a malaria positive state is 0.03% while the probability that an individual will remain at Healthy state (H) after the test is 99.73%. It was found that if an individual is already positive and has taken medication the probability that its second test came out negative is 6.45% while the chances that it will remain positive but uncomplicated is 93.55%. The study also showed that in the long run, about 95.98% of persons who visited the student clinic with malaria symptoms recorded negative tests for malaria parasite while about 4% recorded positive for malaria. In terms of disaggregation by gender, it was realized that the number of reported negative test results were higher for females (97.08%) than for males (96.13%). However, the infection rate is higher for males (3.87%) than females (2.92%). It is recommended that in as much as the University of Ghana has two health centers (a clinic and hospital), there should be a centralized system to track students’ health so research done would not be biased.

Bell's theorem can be refuted by presenting a counterexample which predicts correctly the expectation values of QM. As Bell has only ruled out noncontextual models a contextual model with hidden variables would refute his theorem. Such a model is presented able to explain the spin measurement results with entangled photons or electrons. It is not ruled out by the Kochen-Specker Theorem. Consequences for the feasibility of quantum computers are discussed.

Pathogens and adulterants in human feeding consumables can be readily identified according to their electrical properties. Electrical bioimpedance analysis (BIA) has been widely used for body contents characterization, such as blood, urine, lactate and sweat. If the blood glucose concentration alters the electrical properties of the blood medium, then the impedance spectrum obtained by BIA can be used to measure glycemia. In some applications, artificial neural networks allows the correlation of these parameters (impedance and glucose concentration) by means of symbolic and statistical rules. According to our literature review, there is any physical model that allows the interpretation of the relationship between blood’s electrical properties, obtained by BIA, and the concentration of glucose in the blood plasma. This article proposes a simplified physical model for blood electrical conductivity as a function of glucose concentration, based on Bruggeman’s effective medium theory. The equations of this model were obtained considering an insulating phase distribution diffused in a conductive matrix, in which red blood cells are represented by macroscopic insulating nuclei and glucose molecules by microscopic insulating particles. The impedance spectrum for different glucose concentrations (4.0 to 6.8 mmol/L) in a blood sample, published by Kamat Bagul (2014), were compared with the proposed model. The results showed a significant correlation with the experimental data, showing a maximum error of 5.2%. The proposed model might be useful in the design of noninvasive blood glucose monitoring systems.

model checking techniques are often used for the verification of software systems. Such techniques are accompanied with several advantages. However, state space explosion is one of the drawbacks to model checking. During recent years, several methods have been proposed based on evolutionary and meta-heuristic algorithms to solve this problem. In this paper, a hybrid approach is presented to cope with the SSE problem in model checking of systems modeled by GTS with an ample state space. Most of existence proposed methods that aim to verify systems are applied to detect deadlocks by graph transformations. The proposed approach is based on the fuzzy genetic algorithm and is designed to decline the safety property by verifying the reachability property and detecting deadlocks. In this solution, the state space of the system is searched by a fuzzy genetic algorithm to find the state in which the specified property is refuted/verified. To implement and evaluate the suggested approach, GROOVE is used as a powerful designing and model checking toolset in GTS. The experimental results indicate that the presented hybrid fuzzy method improves speed and performance by comparing other techniques

In central Senegal malaria incidences have declined from 2000 to 2010 in response to scaling-up of control measures and then remained stable, making elimination improbable. Additional control measures are needed to reduce transmission. We simulated chemoprophylaxis interventions targeting malaria hotspots, using a meta-population mathematical model based on differential equation framework and incorporating human mobility. The model was fitted to weekly malaria incidences from 45 villages. Three approaches for selecting intervention targets were compared: a) villages with malaria cases during the low transmission season of the previous year; b) villages with highest incidences during the high transmission season of the previous year; c) villages with highest connectivity with adjacent populations. Our modeling, considering human mobility, showed that the intervention strategies targeting hotspots would be effective in reducing malaria incidence in both targeted and untargeted areas. But whatever the intervention, pre-elimination stage (1-5 cases per 1,000 per year) would not be reached without simultaneously increasing vector control by more than 10%. Targeted interventions allow increasing overall malaria control and elimination potential.

Recently, the intensities of natural disasters have increased significantly owing to climate change and various other environmental factors, causing unprecedented damage. Measures must be established to reduce damage from large-scale natural disasters caused by the rapidly changing environment. The Japanese government published a hazard map manual in 2015 and obligates the creation of a hazard map as a measure to reduce high-scale storm surges. This manual presents a typhoon model based on a parametric model that is used to create a hazard map. The Myers model assuming concentric circles, which is primarily used in East Asia, is disadvantageous as it cannot consider geographic characteristics. Therefore, a new parametric model is necessary to calculate wind and pressure fields, which change according to geographic characteristics. To improve this limitation of the Myers model, we calculated the wind and pressure fields considering geographical effects by combining the Holland model, which can consider the size of a developing typhoon, and the Mascon model, which changes by geographic characteristics. To determine the gradient coefficient of the Holland model, the coefficient that changes every moment was calculated using grid point value data. The result indicated excellent reproducibility of storm surge height according to the geographic characteristics.

In this paper, drug treatment and vaccination are compared healthy and economically. In this comparison, in addition to comparing economic costs, it has paid attention to patients' recovery. To reach the goal, the prevalence of Covid-19 virus in New York is modeled by using the SEIR dynamic model. The SEIR dynamic model is used to model the period of epidemic diseases. Then, three disease control scenarios are evaluated economically. Treatment and vaccination are two important issues in controlling epidemic diseases. To control the disease, each of these two methods has economic costs and benefits. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the two methods of vaccination and treatment economically. Although the results of the study show that vaccination can be effective in preventing the epidemic of the disease than treatment, but due to the high cost and genetic mutation of the virus, vaccination is not the optimal method for both health and the economy in the long term.

We extend our high-resolution MRI-based Finite Element (FE) head model, previously presented and validated in [1–3], by considering the heterogeneities of the white matter structures captured through the use of Magnetic Resonance Elastography (MRE). This approach imparts more sophistication to our numerical model and yields results that more closely match experimental results. It is found that the peak pressure more closely matches the experiments as compared to the heterogeneous case. Qualitatively, we find differences in stress wave propagation near the corpus callosum and the corona radiata, which are stiffer on average than the global white matter. We are able to study the effects of these stiff structures on transient stress wave propagation within the cerebrum, something that cannot be done with a homogenized material model.

There is increasing evidence that the non-cooperative models describe household structures in developing countries more succinctly compared with the unitary model. Domestic violence against women, which is pervasive in Nigeria even though likely to be under-reported, will need to be understood within the framework of non-cooperative relationship between couples. In this study, we identify factors of domestic violence against women within couples who were currently in marital or cohabiting partnerships. Also, we investigate whether domestic violence influences the decision of women to terminate pregnancies. We use data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Multivariate logistic regressions were used to model the predictors of domestic violence, and its influence on the decision to terminate pregnancies among married women. Of the 8,910 married women interviewed for domestic violence, 35.33% had ever experienced a form of domestic violence. We discover that women: with higher education, that is not poor, and resides in urban areas have 44%, 18% and 15% reductions in the odds of experience domestic violence respectively. On the other hand, women who are employed, own land, having husbands/partners that are employed in the agricultural sector, and drink alcohol have 1.16, 1.2, 2.07, and 2.8 times increased odds of experiencing domestic violence accordingly. Also, we uncover that currently married women experiencing domestic violence have 1.25 times increased odds of terminating pregnancies compared with their counterparts that are not experiencing domestic violence. Effectively, poverty, low levels of education, residing in rural areas, drinking habit of husbands/partners, employment, marital capital, and land ownership status of women are risk factors of domestic violence against married women in Nigeria but can be affected by policies and programmes. Importantly, public actions to contain domestic violence in order to improve maternal health should be implemented in the context of the dynamics of a non-cooperative relationship existing between married couples.

The crux of the paper is to present a detailed analysis of COVID-19 data which is available on global basis. This analysis is performed using some specific package of R software. It provides various insights from the data and help to understand the current status of this pandemic in India so that effective measures can be formulated by policymakers. These insights include global summary of this disease, growth rate of this pandemic and performance of SIR model for the given global data. The analysis has been presented in different tables and graphs to understand the outputs of the problem in a more detailed point of view.

The outburst of the CoVid-19 pandemic has raised several questions leading to a complex system in terms of modeling. Indeed, the modeling of the epidemic, at the level of a country, needs considering each of the different sources of contamination as well as the public health authorities' strategy, in a specific way. With this in mind, in the present paper, we develop a mathematical model of the CoVid-19 epidemic in Senegal. In the model, the population is subdivided into five compartments: susceptible, infected but asymptomatic, symptomatic, quarantined, and recovered immune people. In addition, due to its important impact on the propagation of the disease, we add one more variable: the number of infected objects. %\vspace{1mm} Therefore, the model corresponds to a system of six non-linear ordinary differential equations we submit to an analytical study to prove the relevancy of the model, simulate the evolution of the epidemic, and retrieve epidemiological parameters, namely the infection rate and the basic reproduction number, ${\cal R}_0$. Based on the senegalese territory CoVid-19 data, we simulate various scenarios as for the evolution of the epidemic in the country, in order to predict the peak and its magnitude with regard to the application of barrier measures. We also explore the option of collective immunity with special protection for vulnerable people. In doing so, non-available parameters are identified using some mathematical identification technics.

This paper deals with the service performance analysis and improvement using discrete event simulation has been used. The simulation of the heath care has been done by arena master development 14-version software. The performance measurement for this study are patients output, service rate, service efficiency and it is directly related to waiting time of patients in each service station, work in progress, resource utilization.Simulation model was building for Bahir Dar clinic and then, prepared the proposed model for the system. Based on the simulation model run result, the output of the existing healthcare service system is low due to presence of bottlenecks on the service system. Moreover, the station with the largest queue and high resource utilization are identified as a bottleneck. The bottlenecks, which have identified are reduced by using reassigning the existing resources and add new resources and merging the similar services, which has under low resource utilization (nurses). Finally, the researchers have proposed a developed model from different scenarios. Moreover, the best scenario is developed by combining scenario 2 and 3. And then, service efficiency of the healthcare has increased by 9.86 percent, the work in progress (WIP) are reduced by 3 patients from the system and the service capacity of the system is increased 34 to 40 patients per day due to the reduction of bottleneck stations.

In attempting to predict the further course of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, mathematical models of different types are frequently employed and calibrated to reported case numbers. Among the major challenges in interpreting these data is the uncertainty about the amount of undetected infections, or conversely: the detection ratio. As a result, some models include assumptions about the percentage of detected cases among total infections while others completely neglect undetected cases. Here, we illustrate how model projections about case and fatality numbers vary significantly under varying assumptions on the detection ratio. Uncertainties in model predictions can be significantly reduced by representative testing, both for antibodies and active virus RNA, to uncover past and current infections that have gone undetected thus far.

A mathematical model, composed of two non-linear differential equations that describe the population dynamics of CD4 T cells in the human immune system, as well as viral HIV particles, is proposed. The invariance region is determined, classical equilibria stability analysis is performed using the basic reproduction number, and numerical simulations are carried out, in order to illustrate stability results. Later, the model is modified with a delay term, which describes the time that cells require for immunological activation. This generates a two-dimensional integro-differential system, which is transformed into a system with three ordinary differential equations, via auxiliary variable use. For the new model, equilibrium points are determined, their local stability is examined, and results are studied by way of numerical simulation.

Rough volatility models are popularized by \cite{gatheral2018volatility}, where they have shown that the empirical volatility in the financial market is extremely consistent with rough volatility. Fractional Riccati equation as a part of computation for the characteristic function of rough Heston model is not known in explicit form as of now and therefore, we must rely on numerical methods to obtain a solution. In this paper, we give a short introduction to option pricing theory and an overview of the current advancements on the rough Heston model.