Bootstrap resampling techinques, introduced by Efron and Rubin, can be presented in a general Bayesian framework, approximating the statistical distribution of a statistical functional φ(F), where F is a random distribution function. Efron’s and Rubin’s bootstrap procedures can be extended introducing an informative prior through the Proper Bayesian bootstrap. In this paper different bootstrap techniques are used and compared in predictive classification and regression models based on ensemble approaches, i.e. bagging models involving decision trees. Proper Bayesian bootstrap, proposed by Muliere and Secchi, is used to sample the posterior distribution over trees, introducing prior distributions on the covariates and the target variable. The results obtained are compared with respect to other competitive procedures employing different bootstrap techniques. The empirical analysis reports the results obtained on simulated and real data.

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created immense threats to public health on various levels around the globe. The unpredictable outbreak of this disease and the pandemic situation are causing severe depression, anxiety and other mental as physical health related problems among the human beings. To combat against this disease, vaccination is essential as it will boost the immune system of human beings while being in the contact with the infected people. The vaccination process is thus necessary to confront the outbreak of COVID-19. This deadly disease has put social, economic condition of the entire world into an enormous challenge. The worldwide vaccination progress should be tracked to identify how fast the entire economic as well as social life will be stabilized. The monitor ofthe vaccination progress, a machine learning based Regressor model is approached in this study. This tracking process has been applied on the data starting from 14^th December, 2020 to 24^th April, 2021. A couple of ensemble based machine learning Regressor models such as Random Forest, Extra Trees, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost and Extreme Gradient Boosting are implemented and their predictive performance are compared. The comparative study reveals that the AdaBoostRegressor outperforms with minimized mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.968 and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 11.133.

Lower Back Pain (LBP) is a disease that needs immediate attention. Person with back pain shall go immediately to doctor for treatment. Injury, excessive works and some medical conditions are result of back pain. Back pain is common to any age of human for different reasons. Due to factors such as previous occupation and degenerative disk disease the chance of developing lower back pain increases for older people. It hampers the working condition of people common reason for seeking medical treatment. The result is absence from work and is unable to normal due to pain. It creates uncomfortable and debilitating situations. Hence, detecting this disease at an early stage will assist the medical field experts to suggest counter measures to the patients. Detection of lower back pain is implemented in this paper by applying ensemble machine learning technique. This paper proposes Stacking ensemble classifier as an automated tool that will predict lower back pain tendency of a patient. Experimental result implies that the proposed method reaches an accuracy of 76.34%, f1-score of 0.76 and MSE of 0.34.

Due to the recent trend of unmanned economy, retail stores have gradually reduced their service and cashier manpower. The retail product recognition becomes one of key issues for unmanned shopping. Although the success of deep neural networks has made object recognition feasible in a variety of applications, it still struggles to perform well on a large number of classes of retail products. In this paper, we propose an improved ensemble learning-based approach for retail product recognition. In the proposed approach, the object classification network is first improved through feature extraction and block attention. An ensemble model is then built by integrating multiple network models and using loss selection as model weights. In the experiments, the feasibility of our ensemble learning-based approach has been evaluated through many production items. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared with previous retail product recognition methods.

Financial fraud poses a severe threat to the integrity of corporate financial statements and market efficiency. While auditors play a crucial role in detecting and preventing such fraud, the unique characteristics of this domain, including class imbalance, high misclassification costs, and am-biguous attributes, pose significant challenges. Traditional classification algorithms may not be optimally suited for this task. This paper proposes a novel stacking ensemble learning approach to enhanced detecting of Financial Statement Scam. By combining the strengths of multiple base learners, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting Decision Trees, our model leverages their diverse predictions to improve overall performance. A Logistic Regression me-ta-learner is employed to integrate the outputs of the base learners, capturing their collective wisdom while mitigating individual weaknesses. Extensive experimentation using a real-world dataset shown the superiority of our approach, achieving remarkable recall, precision, accuracy, and area under the curve metrics. The proposed model outperforms individual base learners, under-scoring the efficacy of ensemble learning in tackling the intricate problem of financial fraud detection. This research contributes to the creation of substantial and robust fraud detection systems, fostering trust and transparency in financial markets.

InSAR and associated analytic methods enable relative surface deformation measurements from low Earth orbit with a potential accuracy of centimeters to millimeters. However, assessing the actual accuracy can be quite difficult. The analytic methods are complicated enough that naive analytic error propagation is infeasible, and, in many settings, InSAR practitioners lack sufficient ground truth to assess results. Phase noise due to partial decorrelation from changes in the scattering properties of the ground is a prominent source of accuracy loss. In this paper we present a method to assess the loss of precision due to this component of phase noise. The proposed method consists of generating synthetic data stacks whose statistical properties match those of the actual input SAR data stacks, and then using the synthetic data for an ensemble calculation. The spread of the results of the ensemble calculation indicates the loss of precision. We show examples of the ensemble analysis at a mining operation in South Africa, and demonstrate the ability to estimate the precision of two InSAR deformation retrieval methods on a point-by-point and epoch-by-epoch basis.

An electrocardiograph (ECG) reflects the health of the human heart and is used to help diagnose arrhythmia and myocardial infarction(MI) in clinical practice. Early diagnosis of arrhythmia helps implement preventive measures and plays a crucial role in saving a patient's life. With the increasing demand of clinicians for ECG analysis technology, intelligent detection and diagnosis of ECG signals has become a more efficient means to assist physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases. This paper introduces an ECG diagnosis approach based on an ensemble deep learning combination of CNN(convolutional neural network) and SLAP(stacked-long short term memory architecture for prediction) architecture. ECG data is denoised and further divided into single heartbeats to achieve data standardization and sample diversity. Adam optimizer and BCEwithlogitsloss multi-classification loss function were used to enhance the model effect, and the system achieved the classification effect of 99.3% average accuracy, 99.0% F1-value, and 99.2% sensitivity in MIT-BIH standard database classification. It also shows good generalization ability on the Tianchi data set.

The prediction of stock prices is a challenging task, particularly for retail investors who may lack the resources and expertise to perform sophisticated quantitative trading. This study focuses on enhancing stock price prediction for retail investors by employing advanced machine learning techniques on data from the stock exchange market. We utilize a comprehensive methodology that includes data preprocessing to handle missing values and outliers, feature engineering, cross-validation, and parameter tuning. The techniques applied include Keras Deep Neural Networks (DNN), LightGBM, LSTM, GRU, and linear regression (LR). Our proposed ensemble model, which combines time series and deep learning models, demonstrates superior performance compared to individual models. This integration of methods leads to significant improvements in prediction accuracy, providing a robust solution for retail investors.

In the realm of Lithium-ion batteries, issues like material aging and capacity decline contribute to performance degradation or potential safety hazards. Predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) serves as a crucial method to assess the health of batteries, thereby enhancing reliability and safety. Currently hybrid approaches for batteries RUL estimation are prevalence and gained fruitful development. In this paper, a hybrid voting ensembles combining Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and K-Nearest Neighbors is proposed to predict the capacity fade trend and knee point. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted using CALCE CS2 datasets. According to the experimental results, the proposed approach supersedes the single deep learning approach for RUL prediction and the knee point is predicted accurately. Besides prediction purpose, this innovated approach can be also proposed to be integrated into the real-world application for wider usage.

When integrating data from different sources, there are problems of synonymy, different languages, concepts of different granularity. This paper proposes a simple but effective approach to evaluate the semantic similarity of short texts, especially keywords. The method is capable of matching keywords from different sources and languages by exploiting transformers and WordNet-based methods. Key features of the approach include its unsupervised pipeline, mitigation of the lack of context in keywords, scalability for large archives, support for multiple languages and real-world scenarios adaptation capabilities. The work aims to provide a versatile tool for different cultural heritage archives without requiring complex customization. The objectives of the paper are to explore different approaches to identifying similarities in 1- or n-gram tags, to evaluate and compare different pre-trained language models, and to define integrated methods to overcome limitations. Tests to validate the approach have been conducted using the QueryLab portal, a search engine for cultural heritage archives, to evaluate the proposed pipeline.

Nowadays, we live in a world in which people are facing with a lot of data that should be stored or displayed. One of the key methods to control and manage this data refers to grouping and classifying them in clusters. Today, clustering has a critical role in information retrieval methods for organizing large collections inside a few significant clusters. One of the main motivations for the use of clustering is to determine and reveal the hidden and inherent structure of a set of data. Ensemble clustering algorithms combine multiple clustering algorithms to finally reach an overall clustering system. Ensemble clustering methods by lack of information fusing utilize several primary partitions of data to find better ways. Since various clustering algorithms look at the different data points, they can produce various partitions from such data. It is possible to create a partition with high performance by combining the partitions obtained from different algorithms, even if the clusters to be very dense from each other. Most studies in this area have examined all the initial clusters. In this study, a new method is used in which the most sustainable clusters are utilized instead of all primary produced clusters. Consensus function based on co-association matrixes used to select more stable clusters. The most stable clusters selection method is done by cluster stability criterion based on F-measure. Optimization functions are used to optimize the obtained final clusters. The genetic algorithm is the optimizer used in this article to find the ultimate clusters participated in a consensus. Experimental results on several datasets show that the output of proposed method is various clusters with high stability.

This study proposes a novel hybrid machine learning approach for modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The proposed approach is a combination of an instance-based learning algorithm (k-NN) and Rotation Forest (RF), state of the art machine techniques that have seldom explored for landslide modeling. The Lang Son city area (Vietnam) is selected as a case study. For this purpose, a spatial database for the study area was constructed, and then, was used to build and evaluate the hybrid model. Performance of the model was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), area under the ROC curve (AUC), success rate and prediction rate, and several statistical evaluation metrics. The results showed that the model has high performance with both the training data (AUC = 0.948) and the validation data (AUC = 0.848). The results were compared with those obtained from soft computing techniques i.e. Random Forest, J48 Decision Trees, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks. Overall, the performance of the proposed model is better than those obtained from the above methods. Therefore, the proposed model is a promising tool for landslide modeling. The research result can be highly useful for land use planning and management in landslide prone areas.

In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve.

Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain–Fritsch (KF); Betts–Miller–Janji´c (BMJ); Grell–Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New–Tiedke (NT) and Grell–Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March–May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi–member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes (EM:10.02; KF:23.96; BMJ:26.04; GF:25.85; G3:24.07; NT:29.13 & GD:26.27) and a better bias (EM:-1.28; KF:-1.62; BMJ:-4.04; GF:-3.90; G3:-3.62; NT:-5.41 & GD:-4.07). The EMA and MAEM presented 13 out of 21 stations & 17 out of 21 stations respectively with smaller RMSE compared to EM thus demonstrating additional improvement in predictive performance. The MAEM is a new approach proposed and described in the study.

Link prediction is a significant field in network science, which focuses on predicting the probability of the existence or formation of a link between nodes in a social network based on currently observed connections. The effectiveness of traditional algorithms can vary depending on the type of network, making some methods more suitable than others for specific scenarios. Recently, several efficient link prediction algorithms have been developed, demonstrating robust results in both prediction accuracy and interpretability. However, existing research has not clearly established the relationship between network characteristics and link creation mechanisms for community influence analysis and anomaly detection. The ability to predict complex networks with diverse features still requires further investigation. In light of this, we introduce a novel framework designed to combine the best features of different link prediction algorithms when applied to the network, with the aim of achieving more reliable predictions about how networks will evolve. According to the proposed framework, we first focus on the feature extraction stage. During this phase, we systematically identify and extract a comprehensive set of features from the network before moving onto the classification phase. Here, we utilize state-of-the-art ensemble learning models to assess and classify potential links within the network. By training our machine learning models on the extracted features, we can effectively predict whether a particular link is likely to form (positive link) or unlikely to form (negative link). The ML models were trained and evaluated using two datasets: Twitch and Facebook. Results: Additionally, we assessed their performance on these datasets by conducting specific preprocessing and hyperparameter tuning steps. The final prediction model achieves AUC values between 94% and 99.3%. This research contributes significantly to efforts aimed at enhancing link prediction in dynamic socisal network contexts, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of different ML algorithms in predicting future connections and enhancing our understanding of network dynamics.

Solar radiation corresponds to fundamental parameters for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology. Reliable solar radiation prediction became valuable to design solar PV systems, performance, operatively efficient planning, safety operation, grid dispatch and financial characteristics. However, high quality ground-based solar radiation measurements are scarce, especially for very short-term time horizon. Most of the existent studies trained the machine learning (ML) model used dataset with time horizon of 1-hour or day, very fewer studies have been reported using a dataset with a 1-mitute time horizon. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of nine ensemble learning algorithms (ELA) is performed to estimate the solar radiation in Santo Domingo with a 1-minute time horizon dataset collected from a local weather station. The ensemble learning evaluated included seven homogeneous ensembles; Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), Adaptive Gradient Boosting (AGB), Gradient Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM), Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGB) and heterogeneous ensemble named as Voting and Stacking. RF, ET, GB, HGB were combined to develop Voting and Stacking and Linear Regression (LR) was adopted in the second layer of the Stacking. Five technical metrics, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) were used as criteria to determine the prediction quality of the developed ensemble algorithms. Comparison of the results indicates that the HGB algorithm offers superior prediction performance among the homogeneous ensemble learning and overall, the Stacking provides the best accuracy with metric values of MSE=3218.27, RMSE= 56.73, MAE=29.87, MAPE=10.60, R2=0.964.

Stress has various impacts on the health of human beings. Recent success in wearable sensor development, combined with advancements in deep learning to automatically detect features from raw data, opens several interesting applications related to detecting emotional states. Being able to accurately detect stress-related emotional arousal in an acute setting can positively impact the imminent health status of humans, i.e., through avoiding dangerous locations in an urban traffic setting. This work proposes an explainable deep learning methodology for the automatic detection of stress in physiological sensor data, recorded through a non-invasive wearable sensor device, the Empatica E4 wristband. We propose an Long-Short Term-Memory (LSTM) network, extended through a Deep Generative Ensemble of conditional GANs (LSTM DGE) , to deal with the low data regime of sparsely labeled sensor measurements. As explainability is often a main concern of deep learning models, we leverage Integrated Gradients (IG) to highlight the most essential features used by the model for prediction and to compare the results to state-of-the-art expert-based stress detection methodologies in terms of precision, recall and interpretability. Results show that our LSTM DGE outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithm by 3 percentage points in terms of recall, and 7.18 percentage points in terms of precision. More importantly, through the use of Integrated Gradients as a layer of explainability, we show that there is a strong overlap between model-derived stress features for electrodermal activity, and existing literature, which current state-of-the-art stress detection systems in medical research and psychology are based on.

The incorporation of renewable energy systems in the world energy system has been steadily increasing during the last years. In terms of the building sector, the usual consumers are becoming increasingly prosumers, and the trend is that communities of energy, whose households share produced electricity, will increase in number in the future. Another observed tendency is that the aggregator (the entity that manages the community) trades the net community energy in public energy markets. To accomplish economically good transactions, accurate and reliable forecasts of the day-ahead net energy community must be available. These can be obtained using an ensemble of multi-step shallow artificial neural networks, with prediction intervals obtained by the covariance algorithm. Using real data obtained by a small energy community of four houses located in the South region of Portugal, one can verify that the deterministic and probabilistic performance of the proposed approach is at least similar, typically better than using complex, deep models.

In this paper, we introduce deboost, a Python library devoted to weighted distance ensembling of predictions for regression and classification tasks. Its backbone resides on the scikit-learn library for default models and data preprocessing functions. It offers flexible choices of models for the ensemble as long as they contain the predict method, like the models available from scikit-learn. deboost is released under the MIT open-source license and can be downloaded from the Python Package Index (PyPI) at https://pypi.org/project/deboost. The source scripts are also available on a GitHub repository at https://github.com/weihao94/DEBoost.

This research centres on advancing the utilisation of a novel Deep Ensemble model called RicEns-Net for predicting crop yields through sophisticated multi-modal data engineering. Initially, data for the study were acquired from Ernst \& Young (EY), a prominent global technology and management consulting firm, as part of their annual data science challenge (EY Open Science Challenge 2023). The predictive models leverage multi-modal data by integrating radar and optical-type remote sensing data alongside meteorological data to create supplementary features essential for predicting crop yield. The primary data features are derived from spectral indices extracted from Sentinel 2 satellites, while more advanced features are generated through combinations and interactions of these fundamental features. Furthermore, data from Sentinel 1 and 3, along with meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall, account for the intricate natural factors influencing crop yield, creating a comprehensive set of data features based on existing research. To tackle the complexity introduced by numerous data features, extensive data engineering was conducted to identify the most predictive features among 100+ and mitigate the "curse of dimensionality," resulting in 15 features from 5 different modalities. The proposed RicEns-Net comprises multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble approach to leverage the best features of each of these techniques, achieving optimal performance. The proposed model achieves an MAE value of 341 kg/Ha for prediction, surpassing the performance of the EY Open Science Challenge 2023 winner models and state-of-the-art deep/machine learning approaches.

Recent studies have shown correlations between the microbiota's composition and various health conditions. Machine learning (ML) techniques are essential for analyzing complex biological data, particularly in microbiome research. ML methods help analyze large datasets to uncover microbiota patterns and understand how these patterns affect human health. This study introduces a novel approach combining statistical physics with the Monte Carlo (MC) methods to characterize bacterial species in the human microbiota. We assess the significance of bacterial species in different age groups by using notions of statistical distances to evaluate species prevalence and abundance across age groups and employing MC simulations based on statistical mechanics principles. Our findings show that the microbiota composition experiences a significant transition from early childhood to adulthood. Species such as Bifidobacterium breve and Veillonella parvula decrease with age, while others like Agathobaculum butyriciproducens and Eubacterium rectale increase. Additionally, low-prevalence species may hold significant importance in characterizing age groups. Finally, we propose an overall species ranking by integrating the methods proposed here in a multicriteria classification strategy. Our research provides a comprehensive tool for microbiota analysis using statistical notions, ML techniques, and MC simulations.

As sequencing technologies advance, short DNA sequence fragments increasingly serve as DNA barcodes for species identification. Rapid acquisition of DNA sequences from diverse organisms is now possible, highlighting the increasing significance of DNA sequence analysis tools in species identification. This study introduces a new approach for species classification with DNA barcodes based on an ensemble of deep neural networks (DNN). Several techniques are proposed and empirically evaluated for converting raw DNA sequence data into images fed into the DNNs. The best-performing approach is obtained by representing each pair of DNA bases with the value of a related physicochemical property. By utilizing different physicochemical properties, we can create an ensemble of networks. Our proposed ensemble obtains state-of-the-art performance on both simulated and real data sets. The code of the proposed approach is available at https://github.com/LorisNanni/AI-powered-Biodiversity-Assessment-Species-Classification-via-DNA-Barcoding-and-Deep-Learning .

We propose a new ensemble classification algorithm, named Super Random Subspace Ensemble (Super RaSE), to tackle the sparse classification problem. The proposed algorithm is motivated by the Random Subspace Ensemble algorithm (RaSE). The RaSE method was shown to be a flexible framework that can be coupled with any existing base classification. However, the success of RaSE largely depends on the proper choice of the base classifier, which is unfortunately unknown to us. In this work, we show that Super RaSE avoids the need to choose a base classifier by randomly sampling a collection of classifiers together with the subspace. As a result, Super RaSE is more flexible and robust than RaSE. In addition to the vanilla Super RaSE, we also develop the iterative Super RaSE, which adaptively changes the base classifier distribution as well as the subspace distribution. We show the Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version perform competitively for a wide range of simulated datasets and two real data examples. The new Super RaSE algorithm and its iterative version are implemented in a new version of the R package RaSEn.

The conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are continuously advancing and evolving at a fast-paced by introducing the novel learning algorithms. ML models are continually improving using hybridization and ensemble techniques to empower computation, functionality, robustness, and accuracy aspects of modeling. Currently, numerous hybrid and ensemble ML models have been introduced. However, they have not been surveyed in a comprehensive manner. This paper presents the state of the art of novel ML models and their performance and application domains through a novel taxonomy.

The study combines two critical aspects of climate research in Nigeria. The first segment focuses on improving predictive performance of global circulation models (GCMs) employing ensemble techniques. ANN ensemble displayed significant improvement in the accuracy of climate projections, particularly in high-altitude geographic areas where traditional models exhibit limitations. Performance evaluation metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN multimodal ensemble. Building on the improved climate modelling, the second segment delves into a spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and mean temperature patterns under climate change in Nigeria. By considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study utilizes dynamically downscaled GCMs obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The Mann-Kendall test reveals significant spatiotemporal variations in climate trends across the country. The warming trend is particularly pronounced in the northern regions, with RCP8.5 showing more severe impacts compared to RCP4.5. This integrated approach not only highlights the importance of multimodal ensembles in climate modelling but also provides valuable insights into the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change to inform effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for Nigeria.

Energy demand forecasting is a fundamental aspect of modern energy management. It impacts resource planning, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. This importance is making it critical for countries worldwide, particularly in cases like Türkiye, where the energy dependency ratio is notably high. The goal of this study is to propose ensemble machine learning methods such as boosting, bagging, blending, and stacking with hyperparameter tuning and k-fold cross-validation, and investigate the application of these methods for predicting Türkiye's energy demand. This study utilizes population, GDP per capita, imports and exports as input parameters based on historical data from 1979 to 2021 in Türkiye. Eleven combinations of all predictor variables were analyzed, and the best one was selected. It was observed that a very high correlation exists among population, GDP, imports, exports, and energy demand. In the first phase, the preliminary performance was investigated of 19 different machine learning algorithms using 5-fold cross-validation and measured their performance using five different metrics: MSE, RMSE, MAE, R-squared, and MAPE. Secondly, ensemble models were constructed by utilizing individual machine learning algorithms, and the performance of these ensemble models was compared with both each other and the best-performing individual machine learning algorithm. The analysis of the results revealed that placing Ridge as the meta-learner and using ET, RF and Ridge as the base learners in the stacking ensemble model produced superior results compared to the other models across performance metrics. It is anticipated that the findings of this research can be applied globally and prove valuable for energy policy planning in any country. The results obtained not only highlight the accuracy and effectiveness of our predictive model but also underscore the broader implications of this study within the framework of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

We investigated rainfall patterns in India over during the 60-year period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051-2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051-2080 and 2081-2110). Our analysis revealed that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951-2010. This finding is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In a warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.

This work compared the performance of three methods for constructing a regional ensemble prediction system (EPS) for wind speed forecasts: dynamical downscaling, breeding of growth modes (BGM), and blending method. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to downscale the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) EPS. In addition, as the BGM method needs observation data for generating scaling factors, an alternative method for generating scaling factors was proposed to eliminate dependence on observation data. One-month tests between October 1st and October 30th, 2020, were implemented to evaluate the performance of three methods in the Gansu province of China. The results demonstrate that the blending method outperforms the other two methods. Furthermore, the difference in performance is evident mainly in early forecast lead time and becomes negligible as forecast time increases.

More than 110 countries including 500 cities worldwide have set the goal of reaching carbon neutrality. Heating contributes to most of the residential energy consumption and carbon emissions. The green energy transition of fossil-based heating systems is needed to reach the emission goals. However, the heating systems vary in energy source, heating technology, equipment location, and these complexities make it challenging for households to compare heating systems and make decisions. Hence, a decision support tool that provides a generalized ranking of individual heating alternatives is proposed for households as decision-makers to identify the optimal choice. This paper presents an analysis of 13 heating alternatives and 19 quantitative criteria in technological, environmental, and financial aspects, combines ideal solution based Multi-Criteria Decision Making with 6 weighting methods and 4 normalization methods, and introduces ensemble learning with a fuzzy membership function derived from Cauchy distribution to finalize the final ranking. The robustness of the proposed method is verified by 3 sensitive analyses from different aspects. Air to water heat pump, solar heating and direct district heating are the top three rankings in the final result under Danish national average data. A framework is designed to guide the decision-makers apply this ranking guideline with their practical feasible situations.

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73 and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively.

Day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers, and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participate in predicting the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour's expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than both the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method and our own previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) alone do on the datasets for New York, Australian, and Spanish electricity markets.

Timely diagnosis of diabetes helps in avoiding the major risks associated with the disorder. The proposed research involves the prediction of the disorder using a minimal sized and most representative feature set generated using automatic feature extraction through an autoencoder followed by a meta-heuristic feature selection of minimal size using Harris Hawk Optimization that predicts the onset of Diabetes with best accuracy. Specifically, the proposed method uses various classifiers like Support Vector Classifier, Logistic Regression, Decision Trees and Random Forest along with a stacking ensemble classifier upon the new feature set generated by the feature engineering pipeline. The usefulness of the proposed method is evaluated through metrics like accuracy, area under ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve, precision, recall and F1-score. The predictive ability of the models is affirmed under the presence of any statistical anomalies through the tests for statistical significance.

The Covid19 pandemic and the current wars in some countries have put incredible pressures on the global economy. Challenges for the U.S. include not only economic factors, major disruptions and reorganizations of the supply chains, but also those of national security and global geopolitics. This unprecedented situation makes predicting economic crisis for the coming years crucial yet challenging. In this paper, we propose a method based on various machine-learning models to predict the probability of a recession for the US economy in the next year. We collect the U.S’ monthly macroeconomics indicators and recession data from January of 1983 to December of 2023 to predict the probability of an economic recession in 2024. The performance of the individual economics indicator for the coming year was predicted separately, and then all of the the predicted indicators were used to forecast a possible economic recession. Our results showed that the U.S. will face a high probability of being in a recession period in the last quarter of 2024.

This paper explores the potential of using the SAM segmentator to enhance the segmentation capability of known methods. SAM is a promptable segmentation system that offers zero-shot generalization to unfamiliar objects and images, eliminating the need for additional training. The open-source nature of SAM on GitHub allows for easy access and implementation. In our experiments, we aim to improve the segmentation performance by providing SAM with checkpoints extracted from the masks produced by DeepLabv3+, then merging the segmentation masks provided by these two networks. Additionally, we examine the \enquote{oracle} method (as upper bound baseline performance), where segmentation masks are inferred only by SAM with checkpoints extracted from ground truth. In addition, we tested in the CAMO datasets an ensemble of PVTv2 transformers; combining the ensemble and SAM yields state-of-the-art performance in that dataset. The results of our study provide valuable insights into the potential of incorporating the SAM segmentator into existing segmentation techniques. We release with this paper the open-source implementation of our method.

Feature selection is a crucial step in machine learning, aiming to identify the most relevant features in high-dimensional data, in order to reduce the computational complexity of model development and improve its generalization performance. Ensemble feature ranking methods combine the results of several feature selection techniques to identify a subset of the most relevant features for a given task. In many cases, they produce a more comprehensive ranking of features than the individual methods used in them. This paper presents a novel approach to ensemble feature ranking, which uses a weighted average of the individual ranking scores calculated by the individual methods. The optimal weights are determined using a Taguchi-type design of experiments. The proposed methodology significantly improves classification performance on the CSE-CIC-IDS2018 dataset, particularly for attack types where traditional average-based feature ranking score combinations resulted in low classification metrics.

To effectively preserve marine environments and manage endangered species, it is necessary to employ efficient, precise, and scalable solutions for environmental monitoring. Ecoacoustics provides several benefits as it enables non-intrusive, prolonged sampling of environmental sounds, making it a promising tool for conducting biodiversity surveys. However, analyzing and interpreting acoustic data can be time-consuming and often demands substantial human supervision. This challenge can be addressed by harnessing contemporary methods for automated audio signal analysis, which have exhibited remarkable performance due to advancements in deep learning research. This paper introduces a research investigation into developing an automatic computerized system to detect dolphin whistles. The proposed method utilizes a fusion of various resnet50 networks integrated with data augmentation techniques. Through extensive experiments conducted on a publically available benchmark, our findings demonstrate that our ensemble yields significant performance enhancements across all evaluated metrics. The MATLAB/PyTorch source code is freely available at: https://github.com/LorisNanni/

Object classification is a crucial task in deep learning, which involves the identification and categorization of objects in images or videos. Although humans can easily recognize common objects, such as cars, animals, or plants, performing this task on a large scale can be time-consuming and error-prone. Therefore, automating this process using neural networks can save time and effort while achieving higher accuracy. Our study focuses on the classification step of human chromosome karyotyping, an important medical procedure that helps diagnose genetic disorders. Traditionally, this task is performed manually by expert cytologists, which is a time-consuming process that requires specialized medical skills. Therefore, automating it through deep learning can be immensely useful. To accomplish this, we implemented and adapted existing preprocessing and data augmentation techniques to prepare the chromosome images for classification. We used ResNet-50 convolutional neural networks and an ensemble approach to classify the chromosomes, obtaining state-of-the-art performance in the tested dataset.

Communication is a key method of expressing one's thoughts and opinions. Amongst many modalities, speech and writing are the most powerful and common forms of human communication. Analysing what and how people think has inherently been an interesting and progressive research domain. This includes bimodal sentiment analysis which is an emerging area in natural language processing (NLP) and has received a great deal of attention in recent years in a variety of areas including social opinion mining, health care, banking, and so on. At present, there are limited studies on bimodal conversational sentiment analysis as it proves to be a challenging area given the complex nature of the way humans express sentiment cues across various modalities. To address this gap, a comparison of the performance of multiple data modality models has been conducted on the MELD dataset, a widely-used dataset for benchmarking sentiment analysis within the research community. Our work then demonstrates the results of combining acoustic and linguistic representations. Lastly, our proposed neural network-based ensemble learning technique is employed over six transformer and deep learning-based models, achieving a State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) accuracy.

Covid-19 has caused infections and deaths worldwide. While research in the field of Data Science has contributed good predictions of positive Covid-19 case numbers, this study's review of literature shows there is little research in the use of variants of the virus in predictions. We set out to define and evaluate novel variant features. We find that features relating to variant trends, thresholds and amino acid substitutions are especially powerful in two tasks. In the first task, predicting Covid-19 case numbers, accuracy improved from 71.53% without variant features to 82.12% with variant features. In the second task, predicting transmission severity of variants between two classes, we created a method to build some variable ensembles through selecting appropriate models that are generated with variant features. The test results showed that our ensembles are more accurate and reliable. One particular ensemble of 14 models correctly classified 90.91% of variants, outperforming other models including the popular Random Forest ensemble. In addition, as the variant features have represented more underlying information about Covid-19 pathophysiology, our ensemble methods use only a few data samples to achieve an accurate prediction. The ensemble of 14 models uses only 50 cases of each variant, an ability that could be exploited for early detection of highly infectious variants. These research findings may benefit public health professionals, policy makers, and the research community in the collective efforts to overcome this disease.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have gained prominence in the research literature on image classification over the last decade. One shortcoming of CNNs, however, is their lack of generalizability and tendency to overfit when presented with small training sets. Augmentation directly confronts this problem by generating new data points providing additional information. In this paper, we investigate the performance of more than ten different sets of data augmentation methods, with two novel approaches proposed here: one based on the Discrete Wavelet Transform and the other on the Constant-Q Gabor transform. Pretrained ResNet50 networks are finetuned on each augmentation method. Combinations of these networks are evaluated and compared across three benchmark data sets of images representing diverse problems and collected by instruments that capture information at different scales: a virus data set, a bark data set, and a LIGO glitches data set. Experiments demonstrate the superiority of this approach. The best ensemble proposed in this work achieves state-of-the-art performance across all three data sets. This result shows that varying data augmentation is a feasible way for building an ensemble of classifiers for image classification (code available at https://github.com/LorisNanni).

Recent studies on seafloor mapping have presented different modelling methods for the automatic classification of seafloor sediments. However, most of these studies have applied these models to seafloor data with appropriate number of ground-truth samples, which raises the question whether these methods are applicable to studies with smaller numbers of ground-truth data. In this study, we aim to address this issue by conducting sediment class-specific predictions using ensemble modelling to map areas with limited or without ground-truth data and combined with hydro-acoustic datasets. The resulting class-specific maps were then assembled into one map, where the most probable class was assigned to the appropriate location. Our approach was able to predict sediment classes without bias to the class with more ground-truth data and produced reliable seafloor sediment distributions maps that can be used for seafloor monitoring. Sediment shifts of a heterogenous seafloor in the Sylt Outer Reef, German North Sea were also assessed to understand the sediment dynamics in the area. The analyses of sediment shifts showed that the western area of the Sylt Outer Reef is highly active, and the results of the analyses assisted in providing recommendations on future seafloor monitoring activities.

This paper presents a novel machine learning framework that applies evolutionary ensembles of artificial agents to mineralogical analysis and classification. The approach is based on hybridiza-tion techniques that combine diverse machine learning algorithms, creating large and effective communities of agents. These progressively mute and improve through crossover, hybridization, and selection, addressing the challenges of mineral recognition and classification from thin section images. By combining multiple machine learning techniques, the ensemble of agents autono-mously improves by evolving to adapt and enhance its ability to identify mineral species and classify different types of alterations. We detail the method, provide examples using synthetic and real data, and explore the potential to improve mineralogical analysis workflows through this dynamic, self-improving system.

This study introduces an ensemble model designed for real-time monitoring of bedridden patients.The model was developed using a unique dataset, specifically acquired for this study, that captures six typical movements. The dataset was balanced using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique, resulting in a diverse distribution of movement types. Three models were evaluated: a Decision Tree Regressor, a Gradient Boosting Regressor, and a Bagging Regressor. The Decision Tree Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.892 and an R2 score of 1.0 on the training dataset, and 0.939 on the test dataset. The Boosting Regressor achieved an accuracy of 0.908 and an R2 score of 0.99 on the training dataset, and 0.943 on the test dataset. The Bagging Regressor was selected due to its superior performance and trade-offs such as computational cost and scalability. It achieved an accuracy of 0.950, an R2 score of 0.996 for the training data, and an R2 score of 0.959 for the test data. The study also employs K-Fold cross-validation and learning curves to validate the robustness of the Bagging Regressor model. The proposed system addresses practical implementation challenges in real-time monitoring, such as data latency and false positives/negatives, and is designed for seamless integration with hospital IT infrastructure. This research demonstrates the potential of machine learning to enhance patient safety in healthcare settings.

Background and Objective: Diabetes Mellitus is a long-term, multifaceted metabolic condition that necessitates ongoing medical management. Hypogonadism is a syndrome that is a clinical and/or biochemical indicator of testosterone deficiency. Cross-sectional studies have reported that 20-80.4 % of all men with Type 2 diabetes have hypogonadism, and Type 2 diabetes is related with low testosterone. This study presents an analysis of the use of ML and EL classifiers in predicting testosterone deficiency. In our study, we compared optimized traditional ML classifiers and three EL classifiers using grid search and stratified k-fold cross-validation. We used the SMOTE method for the class imbalance problem. Methods: This database contains 3397 patients for the assessment of testosterone deficiency. Among these patients, 1886 patients with type 2 diabetes were included in the study. In the data pre-processing stage, firstly outlier/excessive observation analyses were performed LOF and missing value analyses were performed with random forest. The SMOTE is a method for generating synthetic samples of the minority class. Four basic classifiers, namely MLP, RF, ELM and LR, were used as first level classifiers. Tree ensemble classifiers, namely ADA, AGBoost, and SGB, were used as second level classifiers. Results: After SMOTE, while the diagnostic accuracy decreased in all base classifiers except ELM, sensitivity values increased in all classifiers. Similarly, while the specificity values decreased in all classifiers, F1 score increased. The RF classifier gave more successful results on the base-training dataset. The most successful ensemble classifier in the training dataset was the ADA classifier in the original data and in the after SMOTE data. The testing data, XGBoost is the most suitable model for your intended use in evaluating model performance. XGBoost, which exhibits a balanced performance especially when SMOTE is used, can be preferred to correct class imbalance. Conclusions: SMOTE is used to correct the class imbalance in the original data. However, as seen in this study, when SMOTE was applied, the diagnostic accuracy decreased in some models, but the sensitivity increased significantly. This shows the positive effects of SMOTE to better predict the minority class.

Predicting credit default risk is important to financial institutions, as accurately predicting the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on their loans will help to reduce financial losses, thereby maintaining profitability and stability. Although machine learning models have been used in assessing large applications with complex attributes for these predictions, there is still a need to identify the most effective techniques and to also address the issue of data imbalance. In this research, we conducted a comparative analysis of random forest, decision tree, SVM (Support Vector Machine), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), ADABoost (ADAptive Boosting) and multilayered perceptron with three-hidden layers, to predict credit default using loan data from LendingClub. Additionally, we also combined the model predictions using voting and stacking ensemble methods to enhance the models' performance. Furthermore, various sampling techniques was explored to handle the issue of class imbalance observed in the dataset, with the result showing that the balanced data performs better than the imbalanced data. Our proposed model achieved an accuracy of 93.7%, a precision of 95.6% and a recall of 95.5%, which shows the potential of ensemble methods in improving credit default predictions and can provide lending platforms with the tool to reduce default rates and financial losses. In conclusion, the findings from this study have broader implications for financial institutions, offering a robust approach to risk assessment beyond the Lend-ingClub dataset.

As the primary secondary tree species in Northeast China, Quercus mongolica possesses significant ecological and economic value. This study employed the Biomod2 platform in conjunction with ArcGIS spatial analysis to assess the potential suitable habitat distribution area of Q. mongolica under current climatic conditions. Furthermore, it forecasted the distribution range and niche changes of potentially suitable habitats for Q. mongolica from 2022 to 2090, and pinpointed the key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The findings reveal that the total potential suitable area for Q. mongolica covers 74,994.792 km², predominantly spread across Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and other regions. The primary determinants of suitable area distribution were peak temperature of hottest month, lowest temperature of coldest month and altitude. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of Q. mongolica are anticipated to diminish to varying extents, with the distribution center exhibiting a tendency towards northward migration. Concurrently, the overlap among different climate scenarios is predicted to expand over time. This investigation facilitates a comprehensive understanding of Q. mongolica's adaptation to climate change, enabling informed adjustments and serving as a valuable reference for the preservation and sustainable management of Q. mongolica populations.

This research aims to explore the integration method of deep learning and large language models in speech recognition to improve the system’s recognition accuracy and ability to handle complex contexts. Deep neural network (DNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer-based large language model are used to build an integrated acoustic and language model framework. Experiments on TIMIT, LibriSpeech and Common Voice datasets show that the ensemble model shows significant improvements in both word error rate (WER) and real-time factor (RTF) compared to traditional models. Especially in terms of adaptability to multiple languages and accent changes, the model shows superior performance. The conclusion shows that through technology integration, the performance of the speech recognition system in complex environments can be effectively improved, providing a new direction for the future development of speech recognition technology.

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Darknet53 and VGG16 pretrained models to develop a hybrid ensemble model named HybridPlantNet23 deep learning model for effective plant disease classification, using the publicly available dataset ‘A Dataset of Leaf Images’ from Mendeley webpage. The preprocessing of the dataset involved resizing the images to the respective requirements of the pretrained models to develop a combined datastore which served as the input. All experiments were conducted using MATLAB R2023b deep network designer interface. Model performances were evaluated based on the conventional accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. VGG16 achieved the highest accuracy (97.25%), precision (96.30%), recall (96.96%), and F1-score (96.55%), outperforming both Darknet53 and the ensemble HybridPlantNet23 model. Despite the advanced architecture of the ensemble model, its performance (accuracy: 95.37%, precision: 93.56%, recall: 94.20%, F1-score: 93.74%) was not significantly superior, thus highlighting scientific reasons behind this development. Recommendations for future works were provided accordingly.

Lung cancer remains a pervasive global health challenge, necessitating precise and efficient classification methods to inform optimal treatment strategies. In this study, we investigate the potential of machine learning algorithms in developing a computer-aided diagnostic tool for early and accurate lung cancer classification, leveraging essential protein biomarkers as predictive features. Our investigation reveals the superiority of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in lung cancer classification, achieving an impressive accuracy of 96.91%. This highlights the transformative potential of DNNs in facilitating real-world clinical applications, offering clinicians a powerful tool for accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Additionally, we analyze the performance of Ensemble Methods, including Voting (91.75%) and Bagging (93.81%), as viable alternatives to DNNs. These ensemble techniques demonstrate robust performance, further underlining their utility in lung cancer classification tasks. Furthermore, our study underscores the critical role of hyperparameter tuning, particularly in adjusting parameters such as min child weights and learning rates, in mitigating overfitting and enhancing the generalizability of diverse machine learning models. For instance, Support Vector Machines (SVM) exhibit varying accuracies ranging from 74.23% to 95.88% across different hyperparameter configurations, emphasizing the importance of hyperparameter optimization in maximizing model performance. In summary, our comprehensive comparative analysis sheds light on the efficacy of different machine learning approaches in lung cancer classification. By leveraging advanced algorithms and optimizing model parameters, researchers and clinicians can harness the power of machine learning to advance early detection and personalized treatment strategies for lung cancer patients.

The growing shift toward Internet of Things (IoT)-based solutions expands the attack surface of systems by connecting an extensive network of heterogeneous devices and technologies. The heterogeneity of IoT devices and the scale of the network often make conventional security measures impractical. Therefore, recent research efforts have focused on machine learning (ML)-based device-agnostic IoT security solutions. However, most proposed solutions have focused solely on detecting malicious traffic in IoT networks. While this is important, further information about the attack is needed to provide a comprehensive defense before, during, and after the incident. To address this gap, we proposed an anomaly-based intrusion detection model that detects malicious traffic and identifies the attack category and subcategory with high accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score. The proposed intrusion detection model is an ensemble model that integrates multiple ML models to produce more robust and reliable detections. For evaluation, we performed three sets of experiments: (1) a binary classification to detect malicious traffic; (2) a multi-class classification to detect the attack category; and (3) a multi-class classification to detect the attack subcategory. In the experiments, our model achieved an accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score of 100% for the binary detection; a precision, recall, and F1-score of 99% and an accuracy of 100% for the multi-class category classification; and an accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score of 88% for the multi-class subcategory classification. These results suggest that the proposed model can reliably detect anomalies in IoT devices.

Developing effective trend estimators is a main method to solve the online portfolio selection problem. Although the existing portfolio strategies have demonstrated good performance through the development of various trend estimators, it is still challenging to determine in advance which estimator will yield the maximum final cumulative wealth in online portfolio selection tasks. This paper studies an online ensemble approach for online portfolio selection by leveraging the strengths of multiple trend estimators. Specifically, a return-based loss function and a cross-entropy-based loss function are first designed to evaluate the adaptiveness of different trend estimators in a financial environment. On this basis, a passive aggressive ensemble model is proposed to weigh these trend estimators within a unit simplex according to their adaptiveness. Extensive experiments are conducted on benchmark datasets from various real-world stock markets to evaluate the performance. The results show that the proposed strategy achieves the state-of-the-art performance including efficiency and cumulative return.

In this study, we conducted experiments to assess the forecasting capabilities for the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea using the ensemble-based data assimilation system (EPS-DA) by WRF-LETKF. These experiments covered forecast lead times of up to 5 days and spanned a period from 2012 to 2019, involving a total of 45 TC formation events. The evaluation involved forecast probability assessments and positional and timing error analysis. Results indicated that successful forecasting depends on lead time and initial condition quality. For TC formation from an embryo vortex to tropical depression intensity, the EPS-DA system demonstrated improved accuracy as the forecast cycle approached the actual formation time. TC centers converged toward observed locations, highlighting the potential of assimilation up to 5 days before formation. We examined statistical variations in dynamic and thermodynamic variables relevant to TC processes, offering an objective system assessment. Our study emphasized early warnings of TC development appear linked to formation-time environmental conditions, particularly strong vorticity and enhanced moisture processes.

In the present study, we implemented species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the potential invasive distribution range of a cichlid fish, Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, in a very sensitive inland water system in the southeastern Arabian Peninsula where it is now established and spreading. By using the “Biomod2” package, and the latest CMIP6 climate data, four single species distribution models and EM were built, and the results were evaluated by operating characteristic (ROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS). Based on the relative importance of climate factor analysis the mean diurnal range and precipitation seasonality were useful predictors of habitat suitability for O. niloticus. The response curve analysis indicated that the presence probability of O. niloticus decreased with increasing mean diurnal range and decreasing precipitation seasonality. The suitable distribution ranges for O. niloticus in the studied area were mainly distributed in the northeast of this region. The ensemble model results specified a significant impact of climate change on O. niloticus distribution, so highly suitable areas for this species will be reduced, while areas with low to moderate suitability increase slightly or remain unchanged. Based on the available data, Nile tilapia fulfills all four criteria to be considered as an invasive species: colonization in a new area, direct or indirect impacts of anthropological activity on its distribution range, geographical discontinuity between its native area (Africa) and the Arabian Peninsula (remote dispersal), and finally, its successful breeding in situ without human assistance resulting establishment of this biopollutant. Species distribution modeling provides insights into the factors that can reduce the risks and negative impacts of this biological pollutant on aquatic ecosystems of the southeastern Arabian Peninsula which harbors about 22 recognized fish species in 16 genera, 10 families, seven orders, and a class including 20 natives (seven endemic) species.

In the realm of computer vision, semantic segmentation is the task of recognizing objects in images at the pixel level. This is done by performing a classification of each pixel. The task is complex and requires sophisticated skills and knowledge about the context to identify objects’ boundaries. The importance of semantic segmentation in many domains is undisputed. In medical diagnostics, it simplifies the early detection of pathologies, thus mitigating the possible consequences. In this work, we provide a review of the literature on deep ensemble learning models for polyp segmentation and we develop new ensembles based on convolutional neural networks and transformers. The development of an effective ensemble entails ensuring diversity between its components. To this end, we combine different models (HarDNet-MSEG, Polyp-PVT, and HSNet) trained with different data augmentation techniques, optimization methods, and learning rates, which we experimentally demonstrate to be useful to form a better ensemble. Most importantly, we introduce a new method to obtain the segmentation mask which is more suitable for combining transformers in an ensemble. In our extensive experimental evaluation, the proposed ensembles exhibit state-of-the-art performance.

This study investigates the possible mechanisms related to the wide range of relative humidity in cirrus clouds (RHi). Under the closed adiabatic assumption, the impacts of vertical motion and ice crystal deposition/sublimation on RHi are investigated through in situ observations and parcel model simulations. Vertical motion is an active external force that changes the RHi, and ice crystal deposition/sublimation plays a role in mitigating the change in RHi. They are the two most important mechanisms involved in controlling the RHi fluctuation during cirrus evolution and could well explain the wide range of RHi in wave-related cirrus clouds. Furthermore, a comparison of cloud statistical characteristics from both observations and simulations shows that a very low value (e.g., 0.001) for the water vapor ice deposition coefficient is highly unlikely.

Climate change is expected to increase the occurrence of droughts with the hydrology in alpine systems being largely determined by snow dynamics. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts taking into account the dynamics of the snow cover area (SCA). We will also analyse the correlation between these types of droughts. We have generated ensembles of local climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCMs) representative of potential future conditions. We have considered several sources of uncertainty: different historical climate databases, simulations obtained with several RCMs, and some statistical downscaling techniques. We then used a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to generate multiple climatic series preserving the characteristics of the ensemble scenario. These were simulated within a cellular automata (CA) model to generate multiple SCA future series. They were used to calculate multiple series of meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) and a novel hydrological drought index (Standardized Snow Cover Index (SSCI)). A linear correlation analysis was applied to both types of drought to analyse how they propagate and the time delay between them. We applied the proposed methodology to the Sierra Nevada (southern Spain) where we estimated a general increase in meteorological and hydrological drought magnitude and duration for the horizon 2071-2100 under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The SCA droughts also revealed a significant increase in drought intensity. The meteorological drought propagation to SCA droughts is reflected in an immediate or short time (1 month), obtaining significant correlations in lower accumulation periods of drought indices (3 and 6 months). This will allow us to obtain information about meteorological drought from SCA deficits and vice versa.

Capability assessment plays a crucial role in the demonstration and construction of equipment. To improve the accuracy and stability of capability assessment, we study the neural network learning algorithms in the field of capability assessment and index sensitivity. Aiming at the problem of over-fitting and parameter optimization in neural network learning, the paper proposes an improved machine learning algorithm—the Ensemble Learning Based on Policy Optimization Neural Networks (ELPONN) algorithm with the policy optimization and ensemble learning. This algorithm presents optimized neural network learning algorithm through different strategies evolution, and builds an ensemble learning model of multi-intelligent algorithms to assessment the capability and analyze the sensitivity of the indexes. Through the assessment of capabilities, the algorithm effectively avoids parameter optimization from entering the minimum point in performance to improve the accuracy of equipment capability assessment, which is significantly better than previous neural network assessment methods. The experimental results show that the mean relative error is 4.10%, which is better than BP, GABP, and early stopping. The ELPONN algorithm has better accuracy and stability performance, and meets the requirements of capability assessment.

In this paper, we propose methods for brain tumor detection in MRI images based on ensemble learning. We build upon prior research on ensemble methods by testing the concatenation of pre-trained models: features extracted via transfer learning are merged and segmented by classification algorithms or a stacked ensemble of those algorithms. The proposed approach achieved accuracy scores of 0.98 , outperforming a benchmark VGG-16 model. Considerations to granular computing are given in the paper as well.

Melanoma is considered the most serious and aggressive type of skin cancer, and metastasis appears to be the most important factor in prognosticating this type of cancer. With the emergence of new therapeutic strategies for metastatic melanoma that have shown improvement in patient survival, we developed a transfer learning-based biomarker discovery model that could help in the diagnosis and prognosis of this disease. After applying it to the ensemble machine learning model, results reveal that the genes we found show consistency with other methodologies previously applied to the same TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) data set, and our methods found novel biomarker genes as well. Our ensemble model achieved Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC) of 0.9861, an accuracy of 91.05, and an F1 score of 90.60 using an independent validation data set. This study was able to identify potential genes for diagnostic classification (C7 and GRIK5) and diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers (S100A7, S100A7, KRT14, KRT17, KRT6B, KRTDAP, SERPINB4, TSHR, PVRL4, WFDC5, IL20RB). We also assessed the potential sources of bias for our model and confirmed some of them by the model's performance.

Scattering hyperspectral technology is a nondestructive testing method with many advantages. Here, we propose a method to improve the accuracy of egg freshness, research the influence of incident angles of light source on the accuracy and explain its mechanism. A variety of weak classifiers classify eggs based on the spectra after preprocessing and feature wavelength extraction to obtain three classifiers with the highest accuracy. The three classifiers are used as metamodels of stacking ensemble learning to improve the highest accuracy from 96.25% to 100%. Moreover, the highest accuracy of scattering, reflection, transmission and mixed hyperspectral of eggs are 100.00%, 88.75%, 95.00% and 96.25%, respectively, indicating that the scattering hyperspectral for egg freshness detection is better than that of the others. In addition, the accuracy is inversely proportional to the angle of incidence due that the smaller the incident angle, the camera collects a larger proportion of scattering light, which contains more biochemical parameters of an egg than that of reflection and transmission. These results are very important for improving the accuracy of non-destructive testing and selecting the incident angle of the light source, and have potential applications in online non-destructive testing.

Sugarcane is the primary crop in the global sugar industry, yet it remains highly susceptible to a wide range of diseases that significantly impact its yield and quality. An effective solution is required to solve the issues given by manual identification of plant diseases, which is time-consuming and wasteful, as well as low detection accuracy. This paper proposes the development of a robust deep ensemble convolutional neural network (DECNN) model for the accurate detection of sugarcane leaf diseases. Initially, several transfer learning (TL) models, including EfficientNetB0, MobileNetV2, DenseNet121, NASNetMobile, and EfficientNetV2B0, were enhanced through the addition of specific layers. A comparative study was then conducted on the improved dataset. The application of data augmentation, along with the addition of dense layers, batchnormalization layers, and dropout layers, led to improved detection accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score for each model. Among the five enhanced transfer learning models, the modified EfficientNetB0 model demonstrated the highest detection accuracy, ranging from 97.08% to 98.54%. In conclusion, the DECNN model was developed by integrating the modified EfficientNetB0, MobileNetV2, and DenseNet121 models using a distinctive performance-based custom weighted ensemble method, with weight optimization carried out using the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) technique. This resulted in a model that achieved a detection accuracy of 99.17%, outperforming the individual performances of the modified EfficientNetB0, MobileNetV2, and DenseNet121 models in detecting sugarcane leaf diseases.

Since the advent of artificial intelligence, it has not only transformed the way we live, but is also accelerating the transformation of production methods. Machine learning is a pivotal technology that endows computers with intelligence. The primary driving force behind its advancement is the pursuit of rapid and precise knowledge acquisition. Nevertheless, the existing enterprise risk decision support system is inadequate in terms of both timeliness and effectiveness when confronted with the task of analysing vast quantities of data. Furthermore, it lacks the capacity to assimilate the expertise of managers and to facilitate interaction in an intuitive manner.By combining a variety of machine learning models, the ensemble learning method effectively leverages the advantages of different algorithms, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of risk prediction. Each model provides a unique perspective and decision-making boundaries when dealing with complex enterprise risk data, but a single model may not be adequate when faced with a particular data set or a particular type of risk. The ensemble method overcomes the problem of bias or overfitting that may be caused by a single model by combining the prediction results of multiple models, so as to obtain a more robust prediction effect. These methods optimize the final prediction results based on how well they perform during training by giving different weights to each model. This convergence strategy significantly improves the accuracy of enterprise risk assessment and helps to provide decision-makers with more reliable data support to make more informed risk management decisions in complex business environments.

Heavy rains result in significant threats to human health and life. Floods and other natural disasters, which have a global impact annually, can be attributed to extended periods of intense precipitation. Accurate rainfall prediction is crucial in nations such as Bangladesh, where agriculture is the predominant field of occupation. The efficiency of machine learning methods is enhanced by the nonlinearity of rainfall, surpassing the effectiveness of other approaches. This study proposes the novel combination of rainfall occurrence prediction, rainfall amount prediction, and daily average temperature prediction. This research implements machine learning techniques and an ensemble-based classifier to predict rainfall occurrence, as well as machine learning regressor models and an ensemble-based regressor to predict the rainfall amount and daily average temperature, using the Bangladesh Weather Dataset. The ensemble classifier demonstrated an accuracy of 83.41% and a recall of 78.17%, exhibiting the best performance in predicting when it will rain, but its precision was the lowest, at 51.16%. The ensemble regression model outperformed the base models, including linear regression, random forest, and support vector regression in rainfall amount prediction, with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.36 and root mean squared error of 0.90. Additionally, this model provided the most precise daily average temperature prediction results with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.42 and root mean squared error of 0.54, highlighting its superiority over the other regression models in forecasting temperature. Ensemble approaches consistently exhibit superior task performance metrics.

In the era of massive construction, damaged and aging infrastructure are becoming more common. Defects, such as cracking, spalling, etc., are main types of structural damage that widely occur. Hence, ensuring the safe operation existing infrastructure through health monitoring has emerged as an important challenge facing structural engineers. In recent years, intelligent approaches, such as data driven machine and deep learning crack detection, gradually dominate over traditional methods. Among them, the semantic segmentation using deep learning models is a process of characterization of accurate location and portrait of cracks using pixel level classification. Most available studies rely on single model knowledge to perform this task. However, it is well-known that the single model might suffer from low variance and low ability to generalize in case of data alteration. By leveraging the ensemble deep learning philosophy, a novel corporative semantic segmentation of concrete cracks method called Co-CrackSegment is proposed. Firstly, five models, namely the U-net, SegNet, DeepCrack19, DeepLabV3-ResNet50, and DeepLabV3-ResNet101 are trained to serve as core models for the ensemble model Co-CrackSegment. To build the ensemble model Co-CrackSegment, a new iterative approach based on the best evaluation metrics, namely the dice score, IoU, pixel accuracy, precision, and recall metrics is developed. Results show that the Co-CrackSegment exhibits a prominent performance compared to core models and weighted average ensemble by means of the considered best statistical metrics.

This paper explores the utilization of ensemble models and learning analytics techniques to predict student academic performance. With the advent of educational big data, institutions are increasingly leveraging advanced analytics to gain insights into student learning patterns and optimize educational outcomes. Ensemble models, which combine the predictive power of multiple algorithms, offer a robust approach to enhance prediction accuracy. The performance of the ensemble models was analyzed and compared using the Open University Learning Analytics Dataset, which consists of sources such as demographic information, historical performance data, and engagement metrics for 23,344 students. The evaluation of various ensemble models across different classification scenarios revealed that the proposed stacking model consistently emerges as the best-performing model, excelling in both multi-class and binary classification tasks.

The dynamic evolution and variation of electrical loads is now a priority for optimum management and, above all, forecasting. Indeed, these dynamic load variations require computer tools able to implement optimal load forecasting models. Scientific research into automated models for forecasting electrical loads therefore represents a challenge for scientific researchers. Several research studies have therefore been carried out. These include machine learning approaches such as: LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and others. This article proposes a comparison study between a hybrid model based on the wavelet transform coupled with the adaboost method, and LSTM, for forecasting electricity consumption loads. Python 3.10 was used for the studies. The first results obtained consisted in the study of electricity load forecasts over four (04) data sets of the year (January, April, August and December). These results are very satisfactory, showing a good correlation between the real results of the electrical load consumption data, and the results of the implemented model. The electrical load consumption data are collected from a renewable energy production source: photovoltaic solar energy. The model test results (R2) obtained range from 0.919 to 0.958. These results are representative of real data and reflect the model's performance. The second set of results concerns a comparative study between the methods used by Y. Xie et al (CNN, MLP, LSTM-AM and LSTM-AM-MLP), and our approach. The prediction results obtained between the approaches show a prediction gap ranging from 0.15 to 0.78 for RMSE and 0.83 for MAPE. These results show significant differences between the methods. The minimization of errors by our model, therefore, reflects the model's performance in terms of accuracy, which is necessary for the optimal management of consumer electricity load forecasts in order to ensure balance between supply and demand.

Pulmonary sarcoidosis is a multisystem granulomatous interstitial lung disease (ILD) with a variable presentation and prognosis. Early accurate detection of pulmonary sarcoidosis may prevent progression to pulmonary fibrosis, a serious and potentially life-threatening form of the disease. However, the lack of a gold-standard diagnostic test and specific radiographic findings pose challenges in diagnosing pulmonary sarcoidosis. Chest computed tomography (CT) imaging is commonly used but requires expert, chest-trained radiologists to differentiate pulmonary sarcoidosis from lung malignancies, infections, and other ILDs. In this work, we developed a multichannel, CT and radiomics-guided ensemble network (RadCT-CNNViT) with visual explainability for pulmonary sarcoidosis vs. lung cancer (LCa) classification using chest CT images. We leverage CT and hand-crafted radiomics features as input channels, and a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) and vision transformer (ViT) ensemble network for feature extraction and fusion before a classification head. The 3D CNN sub-network captures localized spatial information of lesions, while the ViT sub-network captures long-range, global dependencies between features. Through multichannel input and feature fusion, our model achieved the highest performance with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and combined AUC of 0.93±0.04, 0.94±0.04, 0.93±0.08 and 0.97 respectively in a 5-fold cross-validation study with pulmonary sarcoidosis (n=126) and LCa (n=93) cases. The model offers promising potential for improving the diagnosis of pulmonary sarcoidosis. A detailed ablation study showing the impact of CNN+ViT compared to CNN or ViT alone, and CT+radiomics input, compared to CT or radiomics alone, is also presented in this work.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology offers a national operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecast service covering regions of high environmental, economic and social significance. This semi-automated service generates streamflow forecasts every morning and is seamlessly integrated into the Bureau's Hydrologic Forecasting System (HyFS). Ensemble rainfall forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), available in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) suite, are used to generate these streamflow forecasts. The NWP rainfall undergoes pre-processing using the Catchment Hydrologic Pre-Processer (CHyPP) before being fed into the GR4H rainfall-runoff model, which is embedded in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrological modelling package. The simulated streamflow is then post-processed using the Error Representation and Reduction In Stages (ERRIS). We evaluated the performance of the operational rainfall and streamflow forecasts for 96 catchments using four years of operational data between January 2020 and December 2023. Performance evaluation metrics included CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha for ensemble forecasts and NSE, PCC, MAE, KGE, PBias and RMSE and three categorical metrics CSI, FAR and POD for deterministic forecasts. The skill scores CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS and PIT-Alpha, gradually decreased for both rainfall and streamflow as the forecast horizon increased from Day 1 to Day 7. A similar pattern emerged for NSE, KGE, PCC, MAE and RMSE as well as the categorical metrics. Forecast performance also progressively decreased with the higher streamflow regime. Most catchments showed positive performance skills, meaning the ensemble forecast outperformed climatology. Both streamflow and rainfall forecast skills varied spatially across the country – and were generally better in the high runoff generating catchments, and poorer in the drier catchments situated in the western part of the Great Dividing Range, South Australia and mid-west of Western Australia. We did not find any association between model forecast skill and the catchment area. Our findings demonstrate that the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service is robust and draws great confidence from agencies that use these forecasts to support decisions around water resources management.

This paper addresses challenges and solutions in urban development and infrastructure resilience, particularly in the context of Japan's rapidly urbanizing landscape. It explores the integration of smart city concepts to combat land subsidence and liquefaction, phenomena highlighted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Using advanced technologies such as smart sensing and predictive analytics through kriging and ensemble learning, the study aims to improve the accuracy of geotechnical investigations and urban planning. By analyzing data from 433 geotechnical surveys in Setagaya, Tokyo, it develops predictive models to accurately determine the depth of bearing layers critical to urban infrastructure. The results demonstrate the superiority of ensemble learning in predicting the depth of bearing layers, with significant implications for smart city development and the sustainability of urban environments. This interdisciplinary approach not only seeks to mitigate risks associated with geological disturbances, but also promotes sustainable urban growth that prioritizes safety and prosperity. Through advanced technology and comprehensive research, the study underscores the potential of smart cities to address urban complexities and ensure a resilient, sustainable future.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released reports indicating that heart disorders hold the unfortunate distinction of being the primary cause of death worldwide. Shockingly, an astonishing estimated 17.9 million lives are claimed by heart diseases annually, accounting for an alarming 31% of all global deaths. With all the flaws in the clinical situation, it is frequently challenging to assess the severity of cardiac disease and forecast its course of progression due to heterogeneity and complex interplay of factors. Therefore, early heart disease detection is essential for effective therapy. To address these challenges, Machine Learning (ML) boosting algorithms play a pivotal role as the main components of predictive analytics required to do this. The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive comparative framework to predict heart diseases using state-of-the-art machine learning with boosting techniques such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Catboost, XGboost, Light GBM, and Adaboost. To evaluate the performance of the models, a large heart disorders dataset is used from the UCI machine learning repository, comprised of 26 feature-based numerical and categorical attributes with 8763 samples from all over the globe. The Experimental results reveal that AdaBoost attained the highest accuracy of 95% and outperforms other algorithms concerning various performance measures like precision= 0.98, recall= 0.95, specificity= 0.95, f1-score=0.01, Negative predicted value= 0.83, False positive rate= 0.04, False negative rate= 0.04 and False Development rate= 0.01.

To estimate the degree of quantum entanglement, it is important to understand the statistical behavior of functions of spectrum of density matrices such as von Neumann entropy, quantum purity, and entanglement capacity. These entangle- ment metrics over different generic state ensembles have been studied intensively in the literature. As an alternative metric, in this work we study sum of square root spectrum of density matrices, which is relevant to negativity and fidelity in quantum information processing. In particular, we derive the exact mean and vari- ance of sum of square root spectrum over the Bures-Hall generic state ensemble extending known results obtained recently over the Hilbert-Schmidt ensemble.

: Border management serves as a crucial control checkpoint for governments to regulate the quality and safety of imported food. In 2020, the ensemble learning prediction model EL V.1 was introduced to Taiwan's border food management. This model primarily assesses the risk of imported food by combining five algorithms to determine whether quality sampling should be performed on imported food at the border. In this study, a second-generation ensemble learning prediction model, EL V.2, was developed based on seven algorithms to enhance the "detection rate of unqualified cases" and improve the robustness of the model. The chi-square test was employed to compare the efficacy of "pre-launch (2019) random sampling inspection" and "post-launch (2020–2022) model prediction sampling inspection". For cases recommended for inspection by the ensemble learning model and subsequently inspected, the unqualified rates were 5.10%, 6.36%, and 4.39% in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, which were significantly higher (p=0.000***) compared with the random sampling rate of 2.09% in 2019. The prediction indices established by the confusion matrix were used to further evaluate the prediction effects of EL V.1 and EL V.2, and the EL V.2 model exhibited superior predictive performance compared with EL V.1, and both models outperformed random sampling.

To improve the monitoring of the electrical power grid it is necessary to evaluate the influence of contamination in relation to leakage current and its progression to a disruptive discharge. In this paper, insulators were tested in a saline chamber to simulate the increase of salt contamination on their surface, and to evaluate the supportability of these components. From the time series forecasting of the leakage current, it is possible to evaluate the development of the fault before a flashover occurs. Choosing which method to use is always a difficult task since some models may have higher computational effort. In this paper, for a complete evaluation, the long short-term memory (LSTM), group method of data handling (GMDH), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), bootstrap aggregation (bagging), sequential learning (boosting), random subspace, and stacked generalization (stacking) ensemble learning models are analyzed. A review and comparison of these well-established methods for time series forecasting is performed. From the results of the best structure of the model, the hyperparameters are evaluated and the Wavelet transform is used to obtain an enhanced model.

In this paper, we examine two strategies for boosting the performance of ensembles of Siamese networks (SNNs) for image classification using two loss functions (Triplet and Binary Cross Entropy) and two methods for building the dissimilarity spaces (FULLY and DEEPER). With FULLY, the distance between a pattern and a prototype is calculated by comparing two images using the fully connected layer of the Siamese network. With DEEPER, each pattern is described using a deeper layer combined with dimensionality reduction. The basic design of the SNNs takes advantage of supervised k-means clustering for building the dissimilarity spaces that train a set of support vector machines, which are then combined by sum rule for a final decision. The robustness and versatility of this approach are demonstrated on several cross-domain image data sets, including a portrait data set, two bioimage and two animal vocalization data sets. Results show that the strategies employed in this work to increase the performance of dissimilarity image classification using SNN is closing the gap with standalone CNNs. Moreover, when our best system is combined with an ensemble of CNNs, the resulting performance is superior to an ensemble of CNNs, demonstrating that our new strategy is extracting additional information.

This paper presents a comparison of the predictive capability of three hydrological models in a heavily influenced catchment in Peninsula India. In catchments where there is a high dependence on both streamflow and groundwater to meet demands, it is of importance to capture the catchment processes correctly. This study highlights the performance evaluation of a multi-model ensemble consisting of GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model for comparative purposes and the key catchment hydrological processes. The three models were compared in several sub-catchments in the upstream reaches of the Cauvery river catchment. Model performances for monthly streamflow simulations from 1983 – 2005 were analysed for five catchments in the Upper Cauvery. The analysis was undertaken using Nash- Sutcliffe Efficiency, Kling- Gupta Efficiency and percent bias. Additionally, a mean ensemble is presented. The application of a multi-model ensemble approach can be useful in overcoming the uncertainties associated with individual models. The ensemble mean has a better predictive ability in catchments with reservoirs than the individual models. Utilising multiple models could be a suitable methodology to offset uncertainty in input data and poor reservoir operation functionality within individual models. This study has highlighted the importance of an accurate spatial representation of precipitation for input into hydrological models and comprehensive reservoir functionality is paramount to obtaining good results in this region.

There are uncertainties associated with every phase of the stock assessment process, ranging from the collection of data, assessment model choice, model assumptions and interpretation of risk to the implementation of management advice. The dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics (and limited observations of important mechanisms) necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance and to provide advice to managers about sustainable harvests. The \textit{status quo} approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the `best' model, based on diagnostics and model selection criteria, and to generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We review the suitability of the ensemble modelling paradigm to more fully capture uncertainty in stock assessment model building and the provision of advice. We recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling performance and advice from the use of ensemble modelling, while also suggesting revisions to the formal process for reviewing models and providing advice to management bodies.

In this study an adjusting post-processing approach is implemented for improving intra-hourly forecasts of solar power and ramp events of PV solar power systems at different locations in the United States. This study also serves as an out-of-sample test to evaluate the performance of the adjusting approach with different locations and timescales. Thus, various individual intra-hourly forecasts of solar power are combined and adjusted by applying the adjusting approach. Both point and probabilistic forecasts of solar power are included. After that, solar power ramp event forecasting by the adjusting approach is carried out.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) face challenges in capturing long-distance text correlations, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks exhibit limited feature extraction capabilities for text classification of work order. To address the abovementioned problems, this work utilizes an ensemble learning approach to integrate model elements efficiently. This study presents a method for classifying work order texts using a hybrid neural network model called BERT-BiLSTM-CNN. First, use Bert for preprocessing to obtain text vector representations. Then, capture context and process sequence information through BiLSTM. Next, capture local features in the text through CNN. Finally, obtain classification results through Softmax. Through comparative analysis, the method of fusing these three models is superior to other hybrid neural network model architectures in multiple classification tasks. It has a significant effect on work order classification.

The lack of a generalizable machine learning model for predicting the safety of food for 1 human consumption is a significant challenge for policymakers and responsible authorities. This 2 study provides a step-by-step guide to predict the results of seafood product import inspections, 3 focusing on identifying and understanding the critical factors that influence these results. By compar- 4 ing the performances of an ensemble of machine learning models, this study combines the strengths 5 of multiple algorithms to improve the predictive accuracy and gain insights into the key factors 6 impacting them. The ensemble model based on the soft voting technique achieves superior perfor- 7 mance to that based on the hard voting technique in terms of the recall and area under the curve 8 (AUC) scores. The study discovered that various characteristics, such as the exporting country ratio, 9 major product category, overseas manufacturer ratio, importer ratio, and seasonal variation, had a 10 substantial influence on the models’ decisions. This research guide for predicting seafood product 11 import inspection results could pave the path for other items to follow.

Ensemble fuzzing in parallel with heterogeneous fuzzers has been proposed to leverage the advantages of diverse fuzzers and improve testing efficiency. However, in current ensemble fuzzing methods, the collaboration among different fuzzers is achieved solely by synchronizing the seeds discovered by each fuzzer. This results in a high likelihood of different fuzzers choosing the same seeds and creating a large number of equivalent testcases, thus reducing overall fuzzing efficiency. Meanwhile, the existing task division method proposed by AFLTeam is highly coupled with the fuzzer specially designed for it, making it challenging to apply to ensemble fuzzing directly. So, in this paper, we proposed a callgraph-based task division method suitable for ensemble fuzzing. Firstly, we divided the target program’s callgraph into subgraphs (subtasks) balancing expected workloads. Then, we divided the global seed corpus into sub-corpora, each corresponding to a subtask, making fuzzers easily accept the subtasks. Finally, we designed synchronization mechanisms for coverage bitmaps and seeds to realize the collaborative fuzzing among different fuzzers, and a cyclic subtask scheduling strategy to fully leverage the benefits of ensemble fuzzing. We have implemented a prototype called TAEF. The evaluation results show that in the best-case scenario, our method has up to 24% more branch coverage than previous work.

Large terrestrial carnivores play a crucial role in top-down control within terrestrial ecosystems, maintaining ecosystem stability and biodiversity. However, intense interspecific competition often arises among sympatric large carnivores, leading to population reductions or even extinctions. Spatial partitioning through divergent habitat selection helps mitigate such competition. In Xinlong County, Sichuan Province, we used 293 infrared cameras for monitoring from September to May 2016 and March to October 2022. By employing the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), we developed an ensemble model predicting the suitable habitat distribution of leopards (Panthera pardus) and wolves (Canis lupus). We analyzed the main environmental factors influencing habitat selection and the fragmentation of suitable habitats. We found that suitable habitat distribution differed significantly between them. Both species preferred areas with gentle slopes close to settlements. While leopards' habitat selection primarily depended on the distance from settlements, the slope was predominant for wolves. Suitable habitats displayed aggregation, yet wolves exhibited higher fragmentation and more complex patch shapes, indicating greater susceptibility to human activities. These results suggest that sympatric large carnivores, such as leopards and wolves, can reduce spatial competition intensity and promote spatial partitioning by selecting divergent suitable habitats, thereby facilitating species coexistence.

Ultrasound (US) is commonly used for the diagnosis of liver masses. Ensemble learning has been widely used for image classification, but its methods have not been fully optimized. This study was performed to investigate the usefulness of ensemble learning and compare a number of ensemble learning techniques using multiple convolutional neural network (CNN)-trained models for image classification of liver masses in US images. The US imaging data set was classified into four categories: benign liver tumor (BLT, 6320 images), liver cyst (LCY, 2320 images), metastatic liver cancer (MLC, 9720 images), and primary liver cancer (PLC, 7840 images). In this study, 250 test images were randomly selected for each class, for a total of 1000 images, and the remaining images were used for training. Sixteen different CNNs were used for to train and test the US images. All four types of ensemble learning—soft voting (SV), stacking (ST), weighted average voting (WAV), and weighted hard voting (WHV)—showed greater accuracy than the single CNN. All four types also showed significantly better deep learning performance than ResNeXt101 alone. For image classification of liver masses using US images, ensemble learning improved the performance of deep learning over a single CNN.

Ransomware is one of the most dangerous types of malware, which is frequently intended to spread through a network to damage the designated client by encrypting the client’s vulnerable data. Conventional signature-based ransomware detection technique falls behind because it can only detect known anomalies. When it comes to new and non-familiar ransomware traditional system unveils huge shortcomings. For detecting unknown patterns and sorts of new ransomware families,behavior-based anomaly detection approaches are likely to be the most efficient approach. In the wake of this alarming condition, this paper presents an ensemble classification model consisting of three widely used machine learning techniques that include Decision Tree (DT), RandomForest (RF), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). To achieve the best outcome ensemble soft voting and hard voting techniques are used while classifying ransomware families based on attack attributes. Performance analysis is done by comparing our proposed ensemble models with standalone models on behavioral attributes based ransomware dataset..

Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.

This paper provides the state of the art of data science in economics. Through a novel taxonomy of applications and methods advances in data science are investigated. The data science advances are investigated in three individual classes of deep learning models, ensemble models, and hybrid models. Application domains include stock market, marketing, E-commerce, corporate banking, and cryptocurrency. Prisma method, a systematic literature review methodology is used to ensure the quality of the survey. The findings revealed that the trends are on advancement of hybrid models as more than 51% of the reviewed articles applied hybrid model. On the other hand, it is found that based on the RMSE accuracy metric, hybrid models had higher prediction accuracy than other algorithms. While it is expected the trends go toward the advancements of deep learning models.

Brain Tumor is one of the severe diseases and occurrence of this disease threats human life. Detection of brain tumor in advance can secure patient’s life from unwanted loss. Well-timed and swift disease detection and treatment strategy can lead to improved quality of life in these patients. This paper attempts to use Machine Learning based ensemble approaches for recognising patients with brain tumor. Ensemble technique based AdaBoost classifier and 10-fold stratified cross-validation method are assembled in single platform is proposed in this paper for prediction of brain tumor. This prediction is compared against three baseline classifiers such as Gradient Boost, Random Forest and Extra Trees classifier. Experimental result implies the superiority of this model with an accuracy of 98.97%, f1-score of 0.99, kappa statistics score of 0.95 and MSE of 0.0103.

We investigate the stationary and dynamic properties of the celebrated Nosé-Hoover dynamics of many-body interacting Hamiltonian systems, with an emphasis on the effect of inter-particle interactions. To this end, we consider a model system with both short- and long-range interactions. The Nosé-Hoover dynamics aims to generate the canonical equilibrium distribution of a system at a desired temperature by employing a set of time-reversible, deterministic equations of motion. A signature of canonical equilibrium is a single-particle momentum distribution that is Gaussian. We find that the equilibrium properties of the system within the Nosé-Hoover dynamics coincides with that within the canonical ensemble. Moreover, starting from out-of-equilibrium initial conditions, the average kinetic energy of the system relaxes to its target value over a size-independent timescale. However, quite surprisingly, our results indicate that under the same conditions and with only long-range interactions present in the system, the momentum distribution relaxes to its Gaussian form in equilibrium over a scale that diverges with the system size. On adding short-range interactions, the relaxation is found to occur over a timescale that has a much weaker dependence on system size. This system-size dependence of the timescale vanishes when only short-range interactions are present in the system. An implication of such an ultra-slow relaxation when only long-range interactions are present in the system is that macroscopic observables other than the average kinetic energy when estimated in the Nosé-Hoover dynamics may take an unusually long time to relax to its canonical equilibrium value. Our work underlines the crucial role that interactions play in deciding the equivalence between Nosé-Hoover and canonical equilibrium.

Accurate prediction of pregnancy risk levels is essential for preventing maternal and fetal complications. This study explores the application of ensemble machine learning models combined with oversampling techniques to predict pregnancy risk levels. We utilized a publicly available dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, performing extensive feature engineering, including the introduction of new features like Pulse Pressure and Mean Arterial Pressure. To address class imbalance, we employed the Adaptive Synthetic Sampling (ADASYN) method. We conducted comprehensive hyperparameter tuning to enhance model performance and achieve optimal predictive results. Additional evaluation metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, and precision-recall curves, were used to assess model per- formance comprehensively. Our findings demonstrate that the Voting Classifier, particularly when combined with ADASYN oversampling and optimized hyperpa- rameters, achieves an accuracy of 87.19% and a macro F1 score of 87.66%, effec- tively distinguishing between ’low risk’ and ’mid risk’ pregnancy cases. This work contributes to the field by enhancing prediction accuracy, providing insights into important features influencing pregnancy risk, and addressing ethical considerations in deploying machine learning models in healthcare.

Accurate prediction of investment returns is crucial for financial decision-making. Traditional models often struggle with the complexity and variability inherent in financial data. This article presents an advanced predictive model integrating three deep neural networks, pretraining, and ensemble learning to enhance prediction accuracy. By leveraging a combination of DNNs for handling different complexities of data, and a CNN for efficient feature extraction, our approach significantly outperforms traditional methods. Our model incorporates sophisticated data handling techniques, including extensive preprocessing and data augmentation, and benefits from pretraining and ensemble methods to improve robustness and performance. This comprehensive framework offers a robust solution for investment return prediction, addressing the shortcomings of existing models and providing enhanced accuracy and reliability.

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and generative models have significantly accelerated the evolution of internet services. In data centers, where data is often distributed across multiple machines, leveraging these machines to expedite the training of machine learning applications is common. However, this approach incurs substantial communication overhead. To mitigate this, data compression techniques such as quantization, sparsification, and dimension reduction are gaining attention, especially with iterative training algorithms that frequently exchange gradients. With the advancement of FPGA technology, FPGA-based bump-in-the-wire network interface controllers (smartNICs) have demonstrated notable benefits for data centers, matching ASIC switches in port-to-port latency and capacity. However, FPGA-based switches often have spare hardware resources beyond their switching functions, which are typically wasted. we propose a novel architecture that integrates FPGA-based switches with ensemble learning methods, utilizing these spare resources on FPGA-based network switches. This architecture employs random projection as a compression method to accelerate machine learning tasks while maintaining high accuracy. Our system accelerates the training process for Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models with a speedup of 2.1-6.7 times across four high-dimensional datasets. In addition, it leverages the Hamming distance metric for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) classification, combining random projection with Hamming encoding, to offload large-scale classification tasks from downstream servers. This achieves a worst-case speedup of 2.3-8.7 times and a memory reduction of 3.9-27.7 times compared to CPU-based kNN classifiers using cosine distance. Our architecture addresses the challenges of high-dimensional data processing and exemplifies the potential of AI-driven solutions in accelerating and optimizing internet services. Moreover, the programmability of FPGAs allows the system to adopt various compression methods, extending its applicability. Offloading tasks to FPGAs can significantly reduce query response times, showcasing a crucial step towards achieving greater levels of autonomic computing and the rapid evolution of internet systems.

Accurate and efficient medicinal plant image classification is of utmost importance as these plants produce a wide variety of bioactive compounds that offer therapeutic benefits. With a long history of medicinal plant usage, different parts of plants, such as flowers, leaves, and roots, have been recognized for their medicinal properties and are used for plant identification. However, leaf images are extensively used due to their convenient accessibility and are a major source of information. In recent years, transfer learning and fine-tuning, which use pre-trained deep convolutional networks to extract pertinent features, has emerged as an extremely effective approach for image identification problems. This study is leveraging the power of three component deep convolutional neural networks, namely VGG16, VGG19 and DenseNet201, to derive features from the input images of the medicinal plant dataset, containing leaf images of 30 classes. The models were compared and ensembled to make four hybrid models to enhance the predictive performance by utilizing the averaging and weighted averaging strategies. Quantitative experiments were carried out to evaluate the models on the Mendeley medicinal leaf dataset. The resultant ensemble of VGG19+DensNet201 with fine-tuning showcases enhanced capability in identifying medicinal plant images with an improvement of 7.43% and 5.8% compared with VGG19 and VGG16. Furthermore, VGG19+DensNet201 can outperform its standalone counterparts by achieving an accuracy of 99.12% on the test set. A thorough assessment with metrics such as accuracy, recall, precision, and f1-score firmly establishes the effectiveness of the ensemble strategy.

Using traditional methods based on detection rules written by human security experts, there is a significant challenge in accurately detecting many network threats that are increasingly becoming sophisticated. In order to deal with the limitation of the traditional methods, network threat detection techniques utilizing artificial intelligence technologies such as machine learning are being extensively studied. Research has also been conducted on analyzing various string patterns in network packet payloads through natural language processing techniques to detect attack intent. However, due to the nature of packet payloads containing binary data as well as text data, a new approach is needed that goes beyond typical natural language processing techniques. In this paper, we study a token extraction method optimized for payloads using n-gram and byte pair encoding techniques. Furthermore, we generate embedding vectors that can understand the context of the packet payload using algorithms such as Word2Vec and FastText. We also compute the embedding of various header data associated with packets, such as IP addresses and ports. Given the combination of these features, we ensemble a text 1D-CNN and a multi-head attention network in a novel fashion. We validated the effectiveness of our classification technique with the CICIDS2017 open dataset and over half a million data collected by The Education Cyber Security Center (ECSC) currently operating in South Korea. The proposed model showed remarkable progress compared to previous studies, demonstrating a highly accurate classification performance with an F1-Score of 0.998. Our model can also preprocess and classify 150,000 network threats per minute to help security agents in the field divert their time to analyzing more complex attack patterns.

Ship pilots and maritime safety administration have an urgent need for more accurate and earlier warnings on strong wind gusts. This study firstly investigates the “Oriental Star” cruise ship cap-sizing event in 2015, one of the deadliest shipwreck events in recent years, and explores all related hydro-meteorological components in a global mesoscale model. It is found that, rather than the missing signal in raw surface wind prediction, the cumulus precipitation variable (CP) increases dramatically during the accident occurrence, which significantly corresponds to the sub-grid strong wind gust. The effective lead-time can be extended from 24hr (deterministic model) to 48hr (en-semble model). This finding is then verified in another two recent deadly cruise boat accidents. The introduction of the new variable is bearing the hope of improvement to the current maritime safeguard system, on predicting sub-grid strong wind gusts for small-size cruise boats in offshore and inland rivers. Finally, an automatic-response system is developed to provide economical con-vection prediction via Inmarsat email communication, aiming to explore operational severe con-vective gust early-warning and appropriate numerical mesoscale model application.

This study aims to determine the influence of selected social and health factors on the quality of inpatient treatments when regional health organizations use stacking ensemble model. The proposed procedure is based on the logistic regression method, which is used for direct prediction in the case of good fitting data and impossibility of including aggregation of classification algorithms but also in the opposite case, for fine calibration to obtain prediction. In opposite case, the procedure uses classification algorithms and several filter methods which initially rank individual factors according to their importance to reduce the dimensionality of problem and, in such way. obtaining one optimized classification prediction. The proposed procedure is trained using one part and tested using another part of dataset from case study which enables the generalization of the solution to the set goal and is verified by the Kaggle dataset Brest cancer. Case study was conducted using the real data acquired in the region connected to the city of Nis, Republic of Serbia. The obtained results show that the proposed model achieves better results that each of methods included in this stacking ensemble-regression and classification used individually.

This paper presents a study of an automated system for identifying planktic foraminifera at the species level. The system uses a combination of deep learning methods, specifically Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to analyze digital images of foraminifera taken at different illumination angles. The dataset is composed of 1437 groups of sixteen grayscale images, one group for each foraminifer, that are then converted to RGB images with various processing methods. These RGB images are fed into a set of CNNs, organized in an Ensemble Learning (EL) environment. The ensemble is built by training different networks using different approaches for creating the RGB images. The study finds that an ensemble of CNN models trained on different RGB images improves the system's performance compared to other state-of-the-art approaches. The proposed system was also found to outperform human experts in classification accuracy.

For the soil in different regions, the nutrient fertility contained in it is different, and the detection and zoning management of soil nutrients before tillage every year can improve grain yield. In this paper, an integrated learning strategy model based on black soil hyperspectral data is designed for rapid classification of organic matter content classification of black soil. Soil hyperspectral image dataset of Xiangyang Experimental Base was collected; by changing the internal structure of the stacking model, an LSVM-stacking model with (MLP, SVC, DTree, XGBl, kNN) five classifiers as the L1 layer was built, and the simulated annealing algorithm was used for hyperparameter optimization. Compared to other stacking models, the LSVM-stacking metrics are significantly improved. The accuracy rate of hyperparameter optimization is improved by 38.6515%, the accuracy rate of the independent test data set is 0.9488, and the comparison of individual learners can improve the recognition classification accuracy of label"1" to 1.0.

In recent years, the field of deep learning achieved considerable success in pattern recognition, image segmentation and may other classification fields. There are a lot of studies and practical applications of deep learning on images, video or text classification. In this study, we suggest a method for changing the architecture of the most performing CNN models with the aim of designing new models to be used as stand-alone networks or as a component of an ensemble. We propose to replace each activation layer of a CNN (usually a ReLu layer) by a different activation function stochastically drawn from a set of activation functions: in this way the resulting CNN has a different set of activation function layers.

This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from atmospheric reanalysis over the region, thus deriving classified weather patterns (WPs). Probabilistic relationships are established between the synoptic-scale atmospheric variables over East Japan and the generation of regionally integrated wind power in East Japan. Medium-range probabilistic wind power predictions are derived by SOM, as analog ensembles based on the WPs of the multi-center ensemble forecasts. As this analog approach handles stochastic uncertainties effectively, probabilistic wind power forecasts are rapidly generated from a very large number of forecast ensembles. The use of a multi-model ensemble provides better results than a one-forecast model. The hybrid ensemble forecasts further improve the probabilistic predictability skill of wind power generation, as compared with non-hybrid methods. It is expected that long-term wind forecasts will provide better guidance to transmission grid operators. The advantage of this method is that it can include an interpretative analysis of meteorological factors for variations in renewable energy.

Flue gas oxygen content is one of the important parameters in municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) process. And its stable control is closely related to the incineration efficiency and pollutant emission. The construction of a high-precision and interpretable flue gas oxygen content model is the basis for achieving its optimal control. However, the existing methods have problems such as poor interpretability, low model accuracy, and complex manual hyperparameter adjustment. In view of the above problems, the article proposes a flue gas oxygen content model based on Bayes-ian optimization (BO) main-complement ensemble algorithm. Firstly, the ensemble TS fuzzy re-gression tree (EnTSFRT) is used to construct the main model. Then, the long short term memory network (LSTM) is used to construct the compensation model with the error of the EnTSFRT model as the true value. The weighted value of the main and compensation models is used as the output. Finally, based on the BO algorithm, the hyperparameters of the constructed main-complement ensemble model are optimized to achieve high performance model. Experi-mental results based on real MSWI process data show that the proposed method has good per-formance.

Cut-off Low (COL) pressure systems significantly influence local weather in regions with high COL frequency, such as western North America. However, future changes in COL frequency, intensity, and precipitation patterns remain uncertain. This study examines projected COL changes and their drivers in western North America under a high-emission scenario (SSP585) using a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 and a feature tracking algorithm. We compare historical simulations (1980-2009) and future projections (2070-2099), revealing a marked increase in COL track density during summer in the northeast Pacific and western United States, while a strong decrease is projected for winter, associated with shifts in jet streams. Climate models project an increase in COL-related precipitation in future climate, with winter and spring experiencing more intense and localized precipitation, while autumn showing a more widespread precipitation pattern. Additionally, there is an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events, though accompanied by large uncertainties. The projected increase in extreme precipitation highlights the need to understand COL dynamics for effective climate adaptation in affected areas. Further research should aim to refine projections and reduce uncertainties, supporting better-informed policy and decision-making.